Rotational Depth?
Depending on who you ask the Dodgers have plenty of pitching or not enough. This comes up because as the Dozier talks heat up I hear several arguments.
- The Dodgers should be targeting more pitching not hitting
- The Dodgers should not be trading almost major league talents like De Leon and Stewart for hitting even if that hitter is an all-star right-handed slugging 2nd baseman who fits the team perfectly.
- The Dodgers have enough pitching depth that they can trade from their minor league surplus to get that all-star right-handed slugging 2nd baseman who fits the team perfectly.
What is the current depth if the Dodgers trade Jose De Leon and Brock Stewart in a Dozier deal?
The main core:
- Clayton Kershaw – the beast was felled last year and for the first time in his storied career spent significant time on the DL. Backs don’t seem to heal magically, and while he looked just like Kershaw of old when he came back, you can understand the question mark being applied to him for the first time. Can his back hold up or is this something that will be troublesome for the rest of his career? I’m feeling somewhat optimistic and penciling him in for 200 innings.
- Kenta Maeda – Kenta never hit the DL but required an awful lot of rest for the second piece of the rotation. We should be able to pencil him in for 170 innings.
- Rich Hill – the largest question mark of a rotation full of question marks. I’m going to be conservative and simply pencil him in for what he did last year. 125 innings.
- Julio Urias – the wild card, health should not be an issue, simply how many innings will the Dodgers try to extract from him. I’m going with 125.
That is the big four of the rotation. Three left handed pitchers who could easily be three of the top 10 left handers in the National League when they actually pitch.
Now we get to the pitchers coming back from injuries:
- Alex Wood was sailing along as a member of the Dodger rotation when felled by an elbow debridement which required surgery. Once back the Dodgers didn’t trust him much and only allowed him to throw in the bullpen. If Wood is put back in the rotation he would give them four left handed starters. As a fifth piece of a rotation, he’d be solid if not spectacular. I’m giving him an optimistic 125 innings.
- Scott Kazmir is another left hander vying for a spot in the 2017 rotation, who the Dodgers are probably trying to trade even as I write this. Scott had his moments in 2016 including two brilliant back to back starts in late May. From May 14th to July 31st, Kazmir went undefeated (7 – 0) with a 3.73 ERA in 13 starts. Overall he underperformed expectations probably due to numerous injuries. He started out 2016 with a bad thumb, had some cramps, back and neck issues that put him on the DL on Aug 23rd. When he tried to come back he kept getting shut down and eventually it was determined he had thoracic spine inflammation. At the end of the year, they gave him one start and he left that early with right intercostal spasms after one inning. I’m not giving him any rotation innings in this exercise since I expect him to be traded.
- Brandon McCarthy was quite the 2016 enigma. He came back early from his TJ surgery and because of need was quickly installed into the rotation and excelled for 30 innings before going Steve Blass. Supposedly he resolved this issue but when the Dodgers gave him a start in Sept he couldn’t get one out and thus ended his 2016 season on a shield. The good news for McCarthy is that his arm seems fine. The bad news is that he’ll have to overcome about as bad an ending to a season as you can have. At this point, McCarthy has to be the poster child for the worst contract handed out by the Friedman era front office. He’s two years into the contract that has paid him $25 Million and has made all of 13 starts. He has two years left, and word is they are also trying to trade this contract. Much like Alex Wood, if Brandon McCarthy can be the guy the Dodgers signed two years ago, he’d make a great fifth starter. Or maybe he can be a stellar bullpen guy ala Derrick Lowe. I’m not giving him any rotation innings in this exercise.
- Hyun-Jin Ryu hasn’t pitched two games in a row since Sept 12, 2014. His latest setback was the same elbow debridement procedure that Alex Wood had. The Dodger FO has said that Ryu will be 100% ready by Spring Training. Based on Wood’s timetable that makes perfect sense. The bigger question is what does Ryu have left after his shoulder surgeries. Or can he even have a starters load without injuring something else? I think the Dodgers will give him a long look this spring but end up releasing him. I hope I’m really wrong on this and that he surprises everyone but for this exercise, no innings for Ryu.
The Kids:
- Ross Stripling made the Dodger rotation out of spring training and ended up making the fifth most starts on the team. It would not surprise me if that is the case again in 2017. I’m putting Ross down for 100 innings as a starter, possibly piggy backing with Urias or Hill depending on who is not pitching at the time.
- Jose De Leon appears ready for his spot in a major league rotation. It may not be with the Dodgers.
- Brock Stewart appears ready for his spot in a major league rotation. It may not be with the Dodgers.
Others:
- Vidal Nuno was acquired this winter and while it appears he’s destined for the bullpen he has made 42 major league starts, with ten coming as recently as 2015. He was used almost exclusively in relief in 2016.
- Carlos Frias has made fifteen starts for the Dodgers over the past three years. He probably would have had more in 2016 if he had been healthy.
Last year the Dodgers got roughly 850-900 innings for their starters. Using this exercise I come up with about 850 innings while being conservative with Hill, Wood, and nothing from Kazmir/McCarthy.
Looking at this exercise, while the Dodgers have enormous question marks, the depth is so deep, that I think they can trade De Leon and Brock Stewart and be okay. The back end of the rotation is not that important if Kershaw/Kenta/Hill/Urias are making their regular starts, but we know that 3 of those 4 come with their own question marks. Sure I’d rather have Jose De Leon or Brock Stewart making those 100 innings instead of Ross Stripling. In an ideal world, Kazmir or McCarthy step up.
Course that is all based on what I know, the Dodger FO should know more about the conditions of Kazmir/McCarthy/Ryu/Wood.
I’m of two minds on the Dozier deal. He is such a perfect fit for this team that I would bite the bullet and make a deal that does include De Leon and Stewart and expect the Dodger front office to make do with what they have or add to it. The idea of a Dozier lineup is simply too enticing to not make happen.
The other part of my mind is that maybe the lineup is already good enough and maybe stockpiling the pitching is the better way to go and wait to see what opens up in July. I think that I’d really enjoy watching Willie Calhoun hit for the Dodgers.
Vin Scully up for Californian of the Year
In an effort to expand my echo chamber I started a digital subscription to the NY Times. The second biggest benefit to this digital subscription has been a daily update of California Today.
On Dec 12th, they announced a contest for Californian of the Year with the following request:
In that spirit, we’d like to inaugurate a contest, “Californian of the Year” — with you as judge.
We’d love to know who you think deserves the recognition.
Who can you nominate? Anyone. The nominee could be someone who made an impact in your community or on a larger stage. It could be a professor or an athlete, a librarian or a politician.
In short: Tell us the Californian, in your view, who defined 2016.
Email CAtoday@nytimes.com, and please be sure to include:
Today, they announced the finalists. A virtual who’s who of California power players and philanthropists but with one notable exception. Vin Scully.
| • Andy Bales. The C.E.O. of Union Rescue Mission has dedicated his life to helping the homeless in Los Angeles. |
| • Marc Benioff. The Salesforce C.E.O. has made philanthropy a central part of the company’s mission. |
| • Barbara Boxer. The Democratic senator is retiring after 34 years of representing California in Congress. |
| • Jerry Brown. California’s longest-serving governor has pushed ambitious agendas. |
| • Nicole Capritz. The Climate Action Campaign founder is a force in environmental advocacy in San Diego. |
| • Betty Chin. Known as the Chinese Mother Teresa, she has been a lifeline to Eureka’s homeless. |
| • Kamala Harris. California’s new senator is seen as having a bright future on the national and state stages. |
| • Colin Kaepernick. The 49ers quarterback’s national anthem protest polarized fans and incited debate. |
| • Elon Musk. The serial entrepreneur seems to embody the creative daring of Silicon Valley. |
| • Vin Scully (see below). |
And the writer of the piece has chosen Vin as his choice.
As for me, I’m going with Mr. Scully, the gentlemanly broadcaster who retired in October after 67 years as the voice of Dodgers baseball. As the Los Angeles Times sportswriter Bill Plaschke put it, Mr. Scully “is the soundtrack of our lives, the dignified and graceful accompaniment of endless sandy summers, a daily harmonic reminder of the Southern California dream.”
This is quite a list, you could easily make a case for any of them. I nominated Andy Lipkis
Hurlers for hire
You can’t seem to check in on daily baseball transactions without being hit by an ex-Dodger hurler being signed. Either these pitchers were bonafide free agents, or were simply released by their previous team. There are so many I couldn’t decide if I should list them alphabetically or chronological.
Several former number one picks on this list, Zach Lee, Chris Withrow and Bryan Morris. along with two number two picks, Blake Smith and Josh Lindblom.
Still looking for homes are Shawn Tolleson, Rubby De La Rosa, Chris Withrow, Nathan Eovaldi, and Ethan Martin.
People would be re-writing history if at one time they did not have high hopes for Ethan Martin, Chris Withrow, Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, and Nathan Eovaldi.
This isn’t quite TINSTAAPP but it does give me pause when I worry about trading JDL and other arms for our future second baseman.
| DateSigned | | | Pitcher | | | New Team |
| 11/29/2016 | | | Allen Webster | | | Rangers |
| 12/11/2016 | | | Lisalverto Bonilla | | | Pirates |
| 12/12/2016 | | | Dustin McGowan | | | Marlins |
| 12/13/2016 | | | Jordan Schafer | | | Cardinals |
| 12/15/2016 | | | Blake Smith | | | White Sox |
| 12/15/2016 | | | Zach Lee | | | Padres |
| 12/16/2016 | | | Josh Lindblom | | | Pirates |
| 12/17/2016 | | | Javy Guerra | | | Marlins |
| 12/17/2016 | | | Bryan Morris | | | Giants |
| FA | | | Shawn Tolleson | | | |
| FA | | | Rubby De La Rosa | | | |
| FA | | | Chris Withrow | | | |
| FA | | | Nathan Eovaldi | | | |
| FA | | | Ethan Martin | | |
I already wrote about Rubby/Withrow/Eovaldi but here is a quick snapshot of the whatnots about the others.
For a time, Webster and Rubby were joined at the hip. Both top prospects in the Dodger system at the same time, they were both traded to the Red Sox and also the Diamondbacks in the same trades. Much like Jose De Leon, Webster had been drafted very late (18th round) but had put himself on the prospect map ranking as high as the 69th top prospect. When traded to the Red Sox in the big gamble, Webster was considered a good prospect. Very quickly he opened eyes for the Red Sox and at one time was compared to Kevin Brown, but those expectations were never met. Webster has bounced around and seems likely to have little chance of having an impactful, or any type of major league career.
Bonilla was only in the system last year as a minor league free agent and never saw time with the Dodgers.
Dustin McGowan was signed in Feb of 2015 and released in March of 2015. The Dodgers were one year to early on McGowan who finally recovered from his multiple arm injuries to put up a nice 2016 season with the Marlins. He was free to sign with whoever he wanted but ended up back with the Marlins.
Jordan Schafer was signed as a minor league free agent in 2016. The one-time major league centerfielder was trying to make a comeback as a left-handed pitcher. At times he did well in AA but never enough to put him in the Dodgers plans. I was really hoping to see them do a double switch with Schafer sometime in Sept where he pitched to one batter, played CF, and then pitched to another batter. Maybe he can do this trick with the Cardinals.
Blake Smith was the LAD 2nd round pick of the 2009 draft. They tried him first as a slugging outfielder but that went nowhere and he turned back to pitching. He had a cup of tea in the majors last year with the White Sox. They released him, and then re-signed him.
Zach Lee was the highest-profile draft signing of the Dodgers during the McCourt era. The number one pick in 2010 for the LAD, he started one game for the Dodgers. He was traded last year for Chris Taylor, and released this past winter. The Padres picked him up, not unsurprising since Logan White drafted him.
Josh Lindblom was the Dodgers second round pick in 2008. At one time he looked like he could be a solid late inning relief pitcher but that never materialized. Josh was traded to the Phillies along with former number one pick Ethan Martin for Shane Victorino in 2012. That traded didn’t work out for anyone, but it was kind of a damning indictment of the Dodger drafts that they traded a number one and number two pick for 235 crappy at bats from Shane Victorino. Lindblom has bounced around pitching in the majors from 2011 – 2014 but has not pitched in the majors since 2014. Ethan Martin who had one of the great monthly debuts for a McCourt era draft pick was released by the Braves last spring and does not have a contract. The former number one pick looks to have his MLB end with a total of 44 major league innings.
Javy Guerra once amassed 21 saves for the Dodgers in 2011. He appeared to be a late bloomer as he had been drafted way back in 2004. That was his rookie season, but sadly for Javy that would be as good as it gets. He has pitched at least one game in the majors every year since 2011 but just barely.
Bryan Morris was the second number one pick of the Dodgers in the 2006 draft. The first was Clayton Kershaw. Logan White was very excited about drafting Morris and declared that they would have drafted Morris at the Kershaw spot if Kershaw had not been available. I always hoped that was a bullshit comment but it left me wary of Logan White once I heard it. Morris would never do much for the Dodgers, and ended up on the Pirates in the infamous three-way trade that brought Manny to the Dodgers. So in a way, Morris did help out the Dodgers tremendously, as did Andy LaRoche in the same deal. Morris unlike most pitchers on the list has had a successful career, and to date has posted a 133 ERA+.
Hoops, even for the loneliest number
Basketball celebrates it’s 125th anniversary this month and is as popular as ever. They say 300 Million Chinese play the sport, and the above photo shows that even in the poorest places, they can be found shooting hoops.
It is not surprising to me that the sport has become a hit around the world. It has one thing going for it that almost no other sport can boast. You can play basketball by yourself. You can’t do that with baseball, nor football, nor soccer. And it only takes two, to play a competitive game.
It is also an inexpensive game, the cost being simply a basketball. You can find hoops everywhere at parks or schools. My backyard hoop was installed 25 years ago, and is still going strong.
I’ve been playing basketball for fifty years, I was never good enough to play on any high school teams, but throughout my life I’ve played the game constantly. At one point I could play in my backyard on a regulation 10-foot net, or next door on a 9-foot net. When I wanted to pretend I was Wilt Chamberlain I went next door and dominated the boards on my own misses. I was Wilt/West/Goodrich(had to shoot left handed), McMillan, and Happy Hairston.
Considering that Dr. James Naismith created the sports simply to keep athletes vigorous through the winter, you’d have to think he would look at his creation today and marvel.
Even today, I’ll try to shoot about 50 free throws a day, shoot around the world, and continue to try to look smooth on the reverse layup even though I never did. My days of playing an actual game of basketball are over, but shooting hoops can continue just about forever.
Narrative busting day
With Kenley Jansen re-signing with the Dodgers for 5/80 today, two different narratives were busted.
First Narrative – MLB players always sign for the most money. I had laid out reasons why it would be a bad idea for Kenley Jansen to sign with the Marlins even if the Marlins made the best offer. I didn’t however, count on the Nationals to also outbid the Dodgers, and for Kenley to turn down as loaded and successful a franchise as the Nationals for the Dodgers, is really saying something. Kenley must have really wanted to stay in Los Angeles. I’m not a big fan of locking up a closer for 5/80 but because it is Kenley Jansen, I’m as all in as he is.
Team sources say that Kenley Jansen had a better financial offer from the Nationals; decided to “go with his heart”https://t.co/stGhSpYROd
— Marly Rivera (@MarlyRiveraESPN) December 12, 2016
Second Narrative – This Los Angeles Dodger front office would never pay to keep their best players. They just gave the second highest contract to any closer in baseball history.
Boom
Later today we might find out that Justin Turner is also coming back which would complete the key parts of the band. If Blanton is replaced by Greg Holland, so much the better.
Bradbury Building, Boston Camerata, Eggslut, and Aliens
We took in a Christmas show at the infamous Bradbury building today. It wasn’t your typical Christmas show. The Boston Camerata does this:
Take a Christmas journey through Mediaeval France, Italy, England and Provence with “America’s foremost early music ensemble” (Le Monde, Paris). Their “jubilant and inspiring” (The Boston Globe) seasonal music program of festive carols, songs and processionals is “beautifully honed simplicity
while wandering around the iconic Bradbury Building. Concert goers were strewn around the five floors, and the singers walked up and down between the 1st – 3rd floors singing all the while. The voices were angelic and I understood not a word. The acoustic were great, the singing was great, but I couldn’t help but think I was in church. And when I’m in church I daydream
So………………..
I started thinking about how cool it would be if we were invaded by Aliens and it turns out that the human voice at a certain pitch is what would destroy them. The Aliens couldn’t have normal ears because you couldn’t simply have them tune them out with earplugs, these would need to be aliens with a different kind of sensory organs, organs that would be susceptible to a certain octave.
In this way, Jackie Evancho would save the world.
This is how you kill an hour of mid-century Christmas singing.
The day was complete with a meal at the Grand Central Market right across the street. The line for Eggslut was too long so we settled for Bombos and it was delicious.
Pondering left field
2017 LF is going to be interesting.
From the Left Side:
Toles – keeps showing skills, looks like he could be a promising leadoff hitter. Has the speed, showed good OBP skills, had some pop. His arm plays well in LF. I’d think he’d rank very high defensively over a full season in LF. We have to see more but right now Toles ranks as a steal by the LAD FO.
Ethier – I’m hopeful a winter of workouts should get him back to where he was before he got hurt as long as we remember he’s a year older and on the wrong side of 30.
Do you go with the young man with promise or the veteran who missed most of the year? I expect Andre to be the starting LF against RHP unless his health is an issue or the Dodgers move him between now and opening day. Toles will get his chance.
From the Right Side:
Trayce Thompson – showed some interesting skills, his defense certainly plays in LF, power plays, kind of a right handed Joc to me. Because of injuries, he got most of his at-bats against RHP and actually hit them better than the few at-bats he got against LHP. In 2015 he tore up LHP. He could be a Randall Grichuk type of player if things go right but I do expect him to be playing CF against LHP so maybe I should not include him here.
Scott Van Slyke – Roberts showed no faith in SVS when he came back from injuries so hard for me to imagine a scenario where he gets much burn in 2017. I don’t expect him to be on the team come opening day if Darin Ruf makes the team.
Darin Ruf – was acquired in the Howie Kendrick deal and like SVS can play 1st or LF. He would be the most defensive challenged of the outfield options. Like SVS, it was not long ago that Ruf was hitting left handing pitching at a good clip. Ruf had a sore shoulder to start 2016 and never got in a groove at the major league level. He did tear up AAA and came back in Sept. In 2015, Ruf crushed LHP to the tune of a 1.107 OPS. He had a walk rate about 10% and a K rate of 15%. He did this damage in limited at bats so still a huge question mark as to how productive he can be against LHP. I like Ruf, and I hope the FO acquired him for a reason. Others think he will be DFA’d and was simply a player in the Howie trade, not someone the FO actually coveted.
Kiké Hernandez – in everyone’s dog house and certainly not someone I’d want in LF. If Hernandez is not an infielder I don’t see the point. I’m sure he’s not as good as he was in 2015 nor as bad as he was in 2016. Can you carry someone like Hernandez who can only hit LHP and that is up in the air?
Dark Horse:
Cody Bellinger or Willie Calhoun – If Howie Kendrick can learn to play LF in an emergency in the major leagues, I’m sure WIllie Calhoun could do it an emergency. That emergency would be that no one is hitting and they want his bat in the lineup. We know Bellinger can play the corner outfield spots. Both these guys are left handed so I’d think the only way they get a shot is if both Toles/Andre go down via injury or poor production. Both these players could be gone in big trades by opening day. If the Dodgers do trade for Dozier it certainly makes sense to move Calhoun.
Even though there had been talk of Ryan Braun that seems to have cooled, so I’m expecting Puig in RF and with Toles/Andre/Thompson/SVS or Ruf they seemed to have left field covered against both sides of the plate. Course Thompson is probably going to be covering for Joc in center field against LHP. Unless it is Enrique Hernandez.
1958 – 58
For some reason, I was looking forward to turning 58 this year having been born in 1958. On Turkey Day it became official. All year I’ve thought of myself as 58 years old so turning 58 was just an after thought.
The LAD were 58 years old this year. It is strange comfort to know I’ll always be as old as the LAD are. I started this blog because I wanted to write again without any constraints about what I could write about. Most of the time I’ve been true to the name of the blog but I have tended to go off script and I enjoy doing that.
Since I started writing again in May I feel I’ve been fairly consistent putting out Dodger content that is a tad different from the other Dodger blogs, or at least with a different mindset. Still, with so many Dodger blogs it is hard to differentiate yourself and I’ve failed to do that.
I appreciate Gary popping over and leaving his comments, I wish I had a boatload of Gary’s but I have only the one. It would have been fun to build a little group of readers but that hasn’t happened. I think my target audience doesn’t use twitter, or it could simply be that my writing simply isn’t interesting enough for people when they already have so many other excellent options. Either way, I have no more consistent readers today than I did back in May.
Which is a catch -22 for me. Not having many readers allows me to indulge myself in writing whatever I want, but I’ll admit that when I feel I’ve written something good, it does bother me that few will read it. Ego’s are annoying.
The LAD 58th birthday had a good run, hopefully, I will also.
Dozier and Dodger infield dingers
If the Dodgers do trade for Dozier, and re-sign Justin Turner they will have a good shot at hitting 100 home runs as an infield.
The last Dodger infield to hit 100 home runs was in 2004. That was mostly due to Adrian Beltre who belted 48 home runs. Shawn Green hit 22 home runs as a 1st baseman (28 total), Jose Hernandez hit 11 as an infielder (14 total), Alex Cora hit all 10 of his as a 2nd baseman, Saenz hit 4 as a 1st baseman(8 total), Ventura hit 2 (5 Total), Izturis hit 4 and thus the total was 101 dingers.
Those four by Izturis were a career high. The 48 by Beltre was also a career high. But the difference between Izzy’s 4 and his next best was two. For Beltre, his next best was 36 in 2012.
The 1979 infield was something else. Garvey, Lopes, and Cey all hit 28 home runs. They all hit them only as infielders. Lopes hit his career high with those 28, his next best was 17. Bill Russell chipped in 7 giving them a season total of 91. Mickey Hatcher is listed as an infielder and hit one home run, but it was as a right fielder so no go for Mickey.
The 2016 infield would appear to be the 3rd best. Justin Turner hit 26 as a 3rd baseman (one as a pinch hitter). That was of course, his career high, with 16 being his previous best. Cory Seager hit all 26 of his home runs as a shortstop. Also his career high:). Adrian Gonzalez hit all 18 of his home runs as a 1st baseman. Not a career high. That 18 tied him for the lowest home run total since becoming a full-time 1st baseman in 2006. Chase Utley hit 14 home runs all as a second baseman. Howie hit one home run as 2nd baseman and one home run as 3rd baseman. Enrique Hernandez hit one home run as a 2nd baseman. Rob Segedin hit one HR as a 3rd baseman. Charlie Culberson, of course, hit his infamous home run as a second baseman, and Chris Taylor almost cycled with his lone home run as a second baseman. I think that gets them to 90
So to make it pretty
2004 – 101
1979 – 91
2016 – 90
Of course, neither Dozier or Turner is part of the 2017 LAD infield but if they were it wouldn’t take too much imagination to see
Adrian – 22
Dozier – 30
Seager – 28
Turner – 20
Giving the starters 100 home runs, and maybe a handful from the bench.
It won’t be Rizzo / Baez / Russell / Bryant but it will do.
Dodgers, Yesterday and Today 