Adrian Gonzalez and age 35 seasons
Eric Stephen did an excellent review of what Adrian Gonzalez did in 2016, but I’m curious about what to expect from him in 2017. As Eric noted Adrian had a slow start but turned things around to end up with a somewhat productive season even though it was his least productive season of his career.
Going forward, I’d be betting on that trend to continue, and that 2017 will be his new least productive season going forward.
For historical context, I used the baseball-reference play index to see just how productive 35 and older 1st baseman have been since PED testing began in earnest. I used 2005 as the starting point. You had to have at least 400 PA, an OPS+ > 120, and played at least 70% of your games at 1st base so we could weed out the 1st/DH types.
The results were not very promising.
| Player | OPS+ | PA | Year | Age | HR | OPS |
| Mark Teixeira | 144 | 462 | 2015 | 35 | 31 | 0.906 |
| Paul Konerko | 141 | 639 | 2011 | 35 | 31 | 0.906 |
| Paul Konerko | 130 | 598 | 2012 | 36 | 26 | 0.857 |
| Jason Giambi | 128 | 565 | 2008 | 37 | 32 | 0.876 |
| Carlos Delgado | 128 | 686 | 2008 | 36 | 38 | 0.871 |
| Todd Helton | 127 | 645 | 2009 | 35 | 15 | 0.904 |
| Scott Hatteberg | 120 | 417 | 2007 | 37 | 10 | 0.868 |
Maybe you think I put the bar too high with an OPS+ of 120? I tried it at 110 and got one extra season from Todd Helton. The Dodgers have to be hoping for an OPS+ > 110 from their $22M first baseman. I doubt they get much more than what they got in 2016. When you factor in the age, the shift, the drop in power, the inability to hit left-hand pitching, I think you get a 2017 Adrian Gonzalez much like you got in 2016.
You will notice one thing off the bat. Everyone on this list but Todd Helton were AL players and they all got time at DH besides first base. They did play mostly 1st base, but they also got reps at DH. Konerko was a late bloomer who did his best work in baseball from the age at age 34 and 35. Teixeira did have the comeback season in 2015, after being average in 2014, and was done with baseball by the end of 2016 at age 36. The one-time workhorse had ten straight seasons with at least 500 PA by the age of 32. After 32, he had one, and of those four seasons, only one was a season you’d want from your 1st baseman.
At some point, all those games that Adrian has played in are going to bite him in the ass, and I expect that bite to happen in 2017. My first bet of 2017 will be that Adrian does not see 500 plate appearances in 2017 and the last time that happened was 2005 in his rookie season. We already know he has back problems, and that he plays through them. That won’t be easier to do the older he gets.
This is one of the reasons why I thought it imperative the Dodgers don’t trade Bellinger this off-season because I expect they will need him in 2017.
Josh Lindblom hoping this is his time
A few weeks ago we looked at the ex-Dodger prospects who were finding jobs around the major leagues. One of the names we looked at was Josh Lindblom who had signed with the Pirates in early December. At the time he was just a footnote to the story but Adam Berry of MLB.com gave us more details of the Josh Lindblom saga.
He learned some conversational Korean, came to appreciate the food, took part in team events and soaked in the unique baseball culture for two years. He pitched pretty well, too, starting 61 games with a 4.33 ERA in the hitter-friendly KBO. He became a fan favorite in a foreign country.
“We loved everything about it,” he said. “I can’t say enough about our experience over there. No words can describe the way they accepted us. It was unbelievable. … It was probably one of the best, if not the best experience of my career.”
As one of the good guys, I hope Josh not only finds his way onto the Pirate roster, I hope he thrives and becomes a Pirate fan favorite. May Monroe eventually be able to watch her father work on the mound, but more importantly, I hope she just gets to hug her father.
Dipping into DIPS
Fangraphs released their 2017 Dodger DIPS a few days ago. I like to compare projection systems from the previous year to see what they got right.
These were the 2016 Dodger DIPS, and this was the 2016 Actual Dodger stats.
You can click on the links to see the details but for this comparison, I’m going to use wOBA:
| Player | DIPS2017 | Actual2016 | DIPS2016 | Comments |
| Yasiel Puig | 0.352 | 0.320 | 0.360 | Whiff to the downside |
| Justin Turner | 0.346 | 0.353 | 0.355 | Nailed it |
| Joc Pederson | 0.340 | 0.360 | 0.335 | Whiff to the upside |
| Yasmani Grandal | 0.340 | 0.350 | 0.332 | Whiff to the upside |
| Corey Seager | 0.338 | 0.372 | 0.326 | Whiff to the upside |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 0.326 | 0.334 | 0.329 | Nailed it |
| Scott Van Slyke | 0.325 | 0.267 | 0.339 | Whiff to the downside |
| Cody Bellinger | 0.323 | NA | 0.291 | Not Applicable |
| Rob Segedin | 0.323 | 0.292 | NoDips | Not Applicable |
| O’Koyea Dickson | 0.320 | NA | NoDips | Not Applicable |
| Willie Calhoun | 0.313 | NA | 0.304 | Not Applicable |
| Andre Ethier | 0.311 | 0.263 | 0.327 | Whiff to the downside, but SSS |
| Andrew Toles | 0.310 | 0.365 | NoDips | Not Applicable |
| Darin Ruf | 0.308 | 0.245 | 0.309 | Whiff to the downside, but SSS |
| Austin Barnes | 0.307 | 0.222 | 0.303 | Whiff to the downside, but SSS |
| Trayce Thompson | 0.307 | 0.318 | 0.299 | Whiff to the upside |
| Alex Verdugo | 0.305 | NA | 0.307 | Not Applicable |
| Chris Taylor | 0.304 | 0.260 | 0.299 | Whiff to the downside, but SSS |
| Tim Locastro | 0.301 | NA | NoDips | Not Applicable |
| Edwin Rios | 0.297 | NA | NoDips | Not Applicable |
| Kiké Hernandez | 0.292 | 0.270 | 0.306 | Whiff to the downside |
| Chase Utley | 0.291 | 0.312 | 0.289 | Whiff to the upside |
| Yusniel Diaz | 0.291 | NA | NoDips | Not Applicable |
| Jacob Scavuzzo | 0.291 | NA | 0.278 | Not Applicable |
| Johan Mieses | 0.285 | NA | 0.289 | Not Applicable |
| Erick Mejia | 0.267 | NA | NoDips | Not Applicable |
| Charlie Culberson | 0.265 | 0.288 | 0.276 | Nailed it |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.264 | NA | 0.274 | Not Applicable |
| Jack Murphy | 0.249 | NA | NoDips | Not Applicable |
| Bobby Wilson | 0.249 | NA | NoDips | Not Applicable |
DIPS2017 is once again optimistic that Puig’s best days are not behind him.
My expectations are that they whiffed once again on what Seager will do. That wOBA will be between .350 and .375. Joc will also surprise to the upside.
LAD second base has a fine history, Part One
As the 2017 LAD search for their second baseman, I thought it would be a good time to look at the LAD historical second baseman.
I first did this using the Bill James Win Share formula over at TBLA in January of 2009. Things have changed quite a bit since that day. Ever since Peter Palmer came up with Linear Weights more advanced models have done a good enough job that we feel fairly confident in how a player’s offensive production is measured. Same can’t be said with defensive stats, but everyone uses them from Win Shares to b_War to f_War.
When you are trying to figure out which players have produced the most value, which stat of the day do you use? Use the stat you trust in, which is either of wRC+/OPS+, or incorporate WAR?
For example, Jeff Kent had the second highest OPS+ for a LAD 2nd baseman in 2005 with a 133 mark. Davey Lopes had the 16th highest OPS+ with a 104 mark 1975. Yet if you add in all the components that make up b_WAR that 1975 season by Davey Lopes checks in as the best bWAR season (5.3) for a LAD second baseman. One of the key components that got Davey Lopes to the top was because he stole 77 bases while being caught only 12 times that year.
I think the only way to do this is to show all of the possible iterations, so I’m going to show OPS+, b_WAR, and w_RC+, F_WAR when I can. It is easier to use OPS+ and bWAR because http://www.baseball-reference allows me to easily incorporate these numbers into my spreadsheets. Fangraphs which is responsible for w_RC+ and f_WAR are not as easy.
It was kind of fun to look back at the values of WinShares and see how they look compared to the newer WAR stats. For example, both b_WAR and f_WAR show Davey Lopes with his 1975 season as his best year with 5.3 and 5.1 WAR respectively. The old Bill James Win Shares rates his 1979 and 1978 seasons higher. I was kind of disappointed that Win Shares went the way of the horse and buggy only because I had spent considerable time manually adding every Win Share for every Dodger from the Bill James annual handbooks to my Dodger spreadsheets.
So let’s start with OPS+, just looking at the best offensive seasons for a season and for a career.
Top Ten Best OPS+ Season:
| Player | Age | OPS+ | bWAR | PA | Year |
| Steve Sax | 26 | 137 | 4.8 | 704 | 1986 |
| Jeff Kent | 37 | 133 | 3.7 | 637 | 2005 |
| Davey Lopes | 34 | 128 | 4.7 | 692 | 1979 |
| Jim Lefebvre | 24 | 126 | 5.2 | 610 | 1966 |
| Jeff Kent | 39 | 123 | 2.1 | 562 | 2007 |
| Jim Gilliam | 34 | 121 | 5.2 | 605 | 1963 |
| Jeff Kent | 38 | 119 | 0.7 | 473 | 2006 |
| Davey Lopes | 33 | 118 | 4.8 | 665 | 1978 |
| Davey Lopes | 32 | 110 | 4.6 | 589 | 1977 |
The LAD have had several ROY winners who played second base but none of those seasons made it to the top ten list. First was Jim Lefebvre in 1965, Ted Sizemore in 1968, and Steve Sax in 1982. Frenchy made the list by virtue of his excellent 1966 season. Steve Sax made the top of the list with his brilliant 1986 season. Ted Sizemore was never much of a hitter and his greatest value to the Dodgers came when they traded him for Dick Allen who was later traded for Tommy John.
Should be noted that Jeff Kent only played four seasons for the Dodgers, but he managed to crack the top ten best OPS+ seasons three times in those four years.
You know who you won’t find here. Delino DeShields.
| Player | Age | OPS+ | b_WAR | From | To | PA |
| Jeff Kent | 37-40 | 119 | 6.7 | 2005 | 2008 | 2146 |
| Orlando Hudson | 31-31 | 109 | 4.1 | 2009 | 2009 | 631 |
| Ron Hunt | 26-26 | 107 | 2 | 1967 | 1967 | 442 |
| Davey Lopes | 27-36 | 105 | 32.1 | 1972 | 1981 | 5308 |
| Jim Lefebvre | 23-30 | 104 | 17.1 | 1965 | 1972 | 922 |
| Willie Randolph | 34-35 | 101 | 4.7 | 1989 | 1990 | 746 |
| Juan Samuel | 29-31 | 97 | 2.5 | 1990 | 1992 | 1353 |
| Steve Sax | 21-28 | 97 | 15.7 | 1981 | 1988 | 4745 |
| Eric Young | 25-32 | 93 | 4.2 | 1992 | 1999 | 1366 |
| Chase Utley | 36-37 | 92 | 2.9 | 2015 | 2016 | 706 |
| Mark Ellis | 35-36 | 92 | 5.5 | 2012 | 2013 | 944 |
| Charlie Neal | 27-30 | 92 | 5.7 | 1958 | 1961 | 2159 |
| Jody Reed | 30-30 | 88 | 0.3 | 1993 | 1993 | 504 |
| Ted Sizemore | 24-31 | 88 | 6 | 1969 | 1976 | 1318 |
| Delino DeShields | 25-27 | 79 | 3.1 | 1994 | 1996 | 1511 |
Jeff Kent owns the OPS+ tables but as we dig deeper into the WAR stats you will see why he would probably be hard pressed to be considered the best LAD second baseman.
Junior Gilliam played a lot of 2nd base before coming to Los Angeles. While a LAD, Junior only played full-time second in 1962 and 1963 and thus did not meet the cumulative requirement of at least 65% of his games coming at 2nd base.
I like that Delino DeShields holds up this list. Jody Reed is also near the bottom. They deserve each other.
Wendell Tyler didn’t fumble this one
In the fall of 1975, Wendell Tyler became my first UCLA Bruin football hero. The speedy slashing runner would make your jaw drop with his game-changing runs, while also making you wince with his propensity to fumble.
In a ghastly giveaway show before 80,927 people in the stands and a national television audience, UCLA fumbled 11 times, tying the conference record for butterfingers, one game, and lost eight of those fumbles, breaking the conference record in that category. The errors almost overshadowed the other statistics, specifically that UCLA, led by its fine option quarterback, John Sciarra, managed to hang on to the football long enough to gain 414 yards against one of the nation’s toughest defenses and win the game 25-22.
Even though Tyler fumbled his way through the USC game, the Bruins won, and that win gave them the right to face undefeated Ohio State in the 1976 Rose Bowl. Ohio State had crushed UCLA earlier in the season 41 – 20 and was ranked number one headed into the Rose Bowl.
Somehow my Dad got us tickets to this game and sitting in the Ohio State section it was evident they expected to crush the Bruins. Ohio State featured two-time Heisman award winner Archie Griffin while the Bruins featured fumble prone Wendell Tyler. Wendell had amassed 1388 yards during the year compared to Griffin’s 1450. Wendell averaged 6.7 yards a carry to Griffin’s 5.5, but all you heard before the game was how great Archie Griffin was.
But January 1st, 1976 was not Archie Griffin’s day, it was Wendell Tylers. The Bruin defense held the Ohio State offense in check and at half time only trailed 3 – 0. Rose Bowl MVP John Sciarra got things going and gave the Bruins a 16 – 10 lead before Wendell Tyler broke the game open with this electrifying run.
Here is the full second half. Ross Porter starts the broadcast as a sideline reporter. Great to see Ross Porter here.
Tyler had only eight rushing yards in the first half but would end up with over 160 yards.
Tyler would end his UCLA career and get drafted by my Rams. Tyler kept up his fumbling ways, but also his game breaking runs for the Rams. Wendell didn’t play much but was part of the only Los Angeles Rams super bowl team and after coming back from a brutal car accident had his breakout season in 1981. He rushed for over 1,000 yards and caught another 400 yards, but he still fumbled 10 times. In 1982 he led the league in fumbles with 11 while only carrying the ball 137 times and that would be his last year with the Rams.
All of this is long hand for the real Wendell Tyler story. Years later one of his sons would end up being a USC running back. Even though Marc Tyler was the 2nd best running back recruit out of high school he didn’t have the impact on the USC program as Wendell did with the Bruins.
It is, however, Wendell Tyler’s other son Wendell Junior Tyler that this is about.
He’s on the clock starting at 6 a.m. when his eldest son, Wendell Jr., wakes up and is ready for his bath. Wendell Jr. is 28, but has special needs. When he was an infant, an extremely high fever damaged his brain and left him with the mental capacity of a 4- or 5-year-old.
He’s spent most of his life in a group home, but his condition deteriorated this April, leaving him unable to walk, and he’s been living at home with Wendell Sr. and his wife Carmen ever since. Every morning, they must bathe him, feed him, dress him and stretch out his legs so that he might one day walk again.
You can imagine the difference between caring for a child 24/7 and caring for a full grown man. This story is old, I don’t know the situation with Wendell Junior anymore, but I came across it while doing some minor Wendell Tyler research. I’d always respected Wendell as a football player, after reading this story I respect him as a man.
Today made me realize why I loved Dick Enberg
I had to go to the Clipper game today at 12:30, the plan was to watch the game at Staples and catch the Giant/Packer game at an LA Live eatery before heading home to see what the beautiful people were up to at the Golden Globes.
The Clippers played their part in the plan by running away from the depleted Heat so I left with five minutes to go and a twenty point lead. This took me to Lawry’s Carvery to watch the game. It isn’t a sports bar but they have the game on in strategic places and weren’t crowded so it was perfect for me. When I sat down my Packers were down 6 – 0 and things didn’t look good for them. That all changed in the next five minutes as the Packers scored to take the lead, and then Aaron Rodgers did his Hail Mary penance and put the Packers up 14 -6 headed into halftime.
I had finished my lunch and beer, so I could either sit through halftime or drive home and hope to catch the 4th quarter at home. I went for the latter and I’m glad I did. I found the game on 107 KNX and listened to the game on the car radio. I hadn’t heard a football game on the radio in years, but as I listened it brought back beautiful memories of Dick Enberg and Willie Ellison. Nothing quite beats
50
45
40
35
30
tackled at the 28. With each five yard marker, the announcer’s voice gets just a bit more animated. As the voice rises, your heart beats faster either hoping for more yardage if your man is running with the ball or a tackle to stop the yardage counter if you are on defense. The announcer is your only link, and a good announcer makes all the difference. The Packers seemed to score at will on the drive home and that kind of call happened several times. Until I had heard it, I hadn’t realized how much I had missed it.
Dick Enberg was the best at it for me because he was what I grew up listening too. I think Dick was gone by the time Eric Dickerson came to town, but I do think he was there for Willie Ellison and Wendell Tyler which gave us plenty of calls like I described above.
Wendell Tyler was my favorite Ram running back but that is a story for tomorrow when you find out that as great as Wendell was for the Bruins and Rams, his greatest contribution has been as a father.
You can’t take it with you
It was a race: Mr. Feeney was then 81, and Atlantic Philanthropies, a collection of private foundations he had started and funded, still had about $1.5 billion left. Flinging money out the window or writing checks willy-nilly was not Mr. Feeney’s way.
When you give away eight billion and end up with only two million you must have made quite a few charitable organizations very happy. The Cornell grad looks to have led a fairly asture life for a billionaire. The best part for me is that he did all this under the radar. It used to make me gag when Don Sterling would announce his charitable contributions with full page ad’s in the Lost Angeles times.
None of the major American philanthropists have given away a greater proportion of their wealth, and starting in 1982, Mr. Feeney did most of this in complete secrecy, leading Forbes magazine to call him the “James Bond of philanthropy.”
Finally, a role model I can get behind.
Pedophile?
A Los Angeles councilperson is proposing that single adults be banned from playgrounds.
Now, the city’s extensive collection of swing sets, monkey bars and slides is at the center of a debate over a City Hall proposal to bar adults unaccompanied by children from entering playgrounds in parks.
Los Angeles City Councilman Mitch O’Farrell’s proposal — aimed at protecting children but criticized as a case of government going too far — would essentially ban lone adults from hanging out in spaces meant for kids.
When I first heard about the proposal it sounded like it was going to ban single adults from any area where children play and I wondered how my park would be affected if this law passed.
I use Shadow Park Ranch in West Hills all the time. The open air adult workout section is just ten feet from the Children’s playground. It is a simple setup, pull up bar, dip bar, horizontal bar, and rings. I go at different times throughout the day and while it is never busy it always has at least one or two single adults using the equipment.
But not everyone is rallying behind the Hollywood councilman’s plan, with some accusing O’Farrell of stigmatizing single people or labeling them as pedophiles.
Inflaming the situation, others have misinterpreted the law as banning adults in parks. “Nanny state gone wild: Los Angeles attempts to ban single adults from parks,” a national libertarian group tweeted this week.
It seemed bizarre to me to somewhat label all these folk as possible pedophile’s and it got my dander up. But as I read what the law would actually do, I’m more open to it.
The motion would bolster an existing and similar state law, spokesman Tony Arranaga said. Adults without children could continue to use all the areas of the parks, he added, except the playgrounds, which are clearly marked by boundaries such as a gate, sand or other barriers.
I guess this would mean that as long as the lone adults stay off the sand of the children’s playground they would be allowed to stay. The lone adult who simply wants to use a swing or enjoys watching children play will simply have to check that impulse at the gate, sand, or other barriers.
So much for the old days when senior citizens would visit parks simply for the joy of watching the children play.
Dodgers, Yesterday and Today 