Fangraphs Hitter Contact Series – LAD Infield
Tony Biengino of Fangraphs is doing a fascinating series looking at hitter contact quality, utilizing exit speed, and launch angle data.
We will start by going around the infield horn.
Adrian Gonzalez is another of those lucky ones who can roll out of bed and hit liners, year after year. That said, it’s about all he can do these days. His fly-ball rate dropped precipitously in 2016, and he was fortunate to squeeze out as much long-ball production as he did: his Fly Ball Contact Score dropped from 102 to 75 when adjusted for context. His adjusted liner (97) and grounder (86) marks were both below average, as well. He’s clearly in decline.
Logan Forsythe tends to get lost in this impressive group of AL second sackers. There are no soft spots in his profile; the only shadings in any of his cells are yellow, in the overall-authority and line-drive-rate categories. Remember, the shading is based on relationship to all AL regulars, not just second basemen. Expect his liner rate to regress downward moving forward, but his power to increase. In past years, he hit many more fly balls than in 2016, and a return to form in that category can be expected. His floor is high, and his ceiling is moderate; I’d take Forsythe on my club.
Oh my, no wonder Corey Seager is going to win an MVP award someday
The AL has their Carlos Correa, the NL counters with Corey Seager. Forced to choose, I’d likely select Seager’s present and Correa’s future. Over time, we’ll see whether the Dodger rookie’s extremely high liner rate was for real, but I wouldn’t necessarily bet against it. His pop-up rate was almost nonexistent, and paired an impressively low K rate for a youngster with solid contact authority that stills leaves room for growth. He’s the best of all worlds: a hit-before-power guy who’s developed considerable power. No holes here.
Justin Turner is the line drive machine we thought he was:
Justin Turner just became a very rich man. He’s also one of the safer, most predictable offensive regulars in the game today. That said, there isn’t much, if any, additional ceiling to his game. Like Carpenter, he is a proven line drive machine, one of the few with a true knack for squaring up the baseball. In 2015-16, he was able to max out his fly ball rate without deflating that liner rate, or inflating his pop up rate. He keeps his Ks in check as well. He’s a fairly safe bet to be at least a league average bat over the duration of his new deal, and a 115-120 Adjusted Production guy over the next year or two.
Whether they planned it this way or not you have to give the LAD FO some credit. The one player in decline is the one position they have the top rated 1st base prospect at.
We all know from watching Corey Seager that he’s brilliant, but it is nice when the data backs it up.
Next up will be the outfield.
Fangraphs checks in on Brock Stewart and Sergio Romo
Jeff Sullivan took a look at Brock Stewart and liked what he saw.
Stewart’s fastball just averaged 93.2 miles per hour. Yu Darvish‘s fastball just averaged 93.3 miles per hour. And by spin rate, Stewart’s four-seamer wound up in the 96th percentile, right by Blake Snell and Dylan Bundy. Stewart doesn’t try to survive by guile — he blends command and above-average arm strength. He has three pitches, and his changeup is ahead of his slider.
Brock’s meteoric rise last year was one of the great stories for the Dodger farm system and made the 2014 6th round pick look genius. Headed into last spring the talk that wasn’t about Urias was about Jose De Leon and Jharel Cotton. They are both gone now, used to fill holes but Brock Stewart has arrived and only time will tell if the Dodgers kept the right one.
Travis Sawchik checked in on newest Dodger, Sergio Romo. Travis noted in the story that Romo is one of only 11 pitchers to pitch nine seasons or more with the Giants. Dodger fans know that only to well, having rooted against Romo for every one of those nine seasons, everyone one of the three runs to become World Champions, every one of those sixteen times he shut down his opponents in the postseason. He just needs to continue to excel to get Dodger fans to root for him instead of against him. Travis seems to think he still has the right stuff:
Romo struck out 28.2% of batters faced in 2017 — in line with his 28.7% career mark. His 22.2-point K-BB% figure is similar to the 23.6-point mark he’s recorded for his career. His 67 ERA- was near his career average of 69, too. In 2016, Romo generated a swinging-strike rate of 14.9%, which isn’t too different from his 2015 rate (16.7%) or 2014 rate (14.2%) or 2013 rate (13.6%). Steamer forecasts a slight drop-off, but generally more of the same from Romo in 2017, projecting he will be a useful bullpen arm (3.63 FIP).
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Are the Dodgers done shopping?
With just about all the questions answered you’d have to think the Dodgers might be ready to pack up this roster and head to Glendale to sort out who is going to be on the 25-Man roster come April.
It wasn’t a terribly busy winter for the Dodgers but they did what they needed to do:
- Resigned Turner, Jansen, and Rich Hill
- Traded Jose De Leon for starting 2nd baseman Logan Forsythe to replace Chase Utley who is still looking for a job.
- Signed free agent Sergio Romo to replace Joe Blanton who is still looking for a job.
and a few others that they didn’t need to do but did anyway:
- Traded Howie Kendrick for Darin Ruf and Darnell Sweeney
- Jettisoned Micah Johnson to Atlanta
- Jettisoned Carlos Frias to Cleveland
- Traded Carlos Ruiz to Seattle for Vidal Nuno
Puig is still here.
All the prospects but Jose De Leon are still here.
Unless the front office has a few more tricks under their sleeve this is the roster that will head to spring training:
| Pos | | | Player | | | Age |
| Starting – 1st Base | | | Adrian Gonzalez | | | 35 |
| Starting – 2nd Base | | | Logan Forsythe | | | 30 |
| Starting – Shortstop | | | Corey Seager | | | 23 |
| Starting – 3rd Base | | | Justin Turner | | | 32 |
| Starting – Catcher | | | Yazmani Grandal | | | 28 |
| Starting – CF | | | Joc Pederson | | | 25 |
| Starting??? – RF | | | Yasiel Puig | | | 26 |
| Starting??? – LF | | | Andre Ethier | | | 35 |
| | | | | |||
| Starting Pitcher | | | Clayton Kershaw | | | 29 |
| Starting Pitcher | | | Rich Hill | | | 37 |
| Starting Pitcher | | | Kenta Maeda | | | 29 |
| Starting Pitcher | | | Julio Urias | | | 20 |
| | | | | |||
| Bullpen | | | | | ||
| Closer | | | Kenley Jansen | | | 29 |
| RH Setup Man | | | Sergio Romo | | | 34 |
| RH Setup Man | | | Pedro Baez | | | 29 |
| | | | | |||
| | | | | |||
| Bench Players | | | | | ||
| Backup Catcher | | | Austin Barnes | | | 27 |
| | | | | |||
| | | | | |||
| Rotational Possibilities | | | | | ||
| Starting Pitcher | | | Alex Wood | | | 26 |
| Starting Pitcher | | | Scott Kazmir | | | 33 |
| Starting Pitcher | | | Brandon McCarthy | | | 33 |
| Starting Pitcher | | | Hyun-Jin Ryu | | | 30 |
| Starting Pitcher | | | Ross Stripling | | | 27 |
| Starting Pitcher | | | Brock Stewart | | | 25 |
| | | | | |||
| Bullpen Possibilities | | | | | ||
| LH Setup Man | | | Grant Dayton | | | 29 |
| LH Setup Man | | | Luis Avilan | | | 27 |
| LH Setup Man | | | Adam Liberatore | | | 30 |
| LH Setup Man | | | Vidal Nuno | | | 29 |
| RH Setup Man | | | Josh Fields | | | 31 |
| RH Setup Man | | | Chris Hatcher | | | 32 |
| RH Setup Man | | | Josh Ravin | | | 29 |
| NRI – Best Chance | | | Brandon Morrow | | | 32 |
| | | | | |||
| Bench Possibilities | | | | | ||
| Outfielder | | | Andrew Toles | | | 25 |
| Utility Infielder | | | Chris Taylor | | | 26 |
| NRI – Utility Infielder | | | Charlie Culberson | | | 28 |
| 2nd/SS/Outfielder | | | Enrique Hernandez | | | 25 |
| RF/LF/CF | | | Trayce Thompson | 26 | |
| NRI – 2nd/SS/Outfielder | | | Darnell Sweeney | | | 26 |
| 1st/OF | | | Darin Ruf | | | 30 |
| 1st/OF | | | Scott Van Slyke | | | 30 |
| 1st/3rd/OF | | | Rob Segedin | | | 28 |
The Dodgers have six of the eight positions locked up. The real questions are?
How will Urias be utilized in 2017? It sounds like Urias may hit extended spring training to keep his major league innings down so that he can be properly utilized during the later months of the season. If that is the case, the Dodgers have two rotational openings. Who will win them? I don’t know but I’m rooting for McCarthy/Ryu/Wood. Nothing against Kazmir I just like the upside of those three over Kazmir. Realistically, Ryu would have to do some major hurdling to make it into June and still be in the rotation. Ideally, everyone is healthy and they can move Kazmir or McCarthy. By June, if Urias is ready, they should only have one spot unless…..
How much will Rich Hill pitch? No one is expecting more than 150 innings. Everyone seems to expect him to be good no matter how many innings he does pitch. I’m not optimistic either way so I hope he blows my mind and shatters my presumptive nature to not trust anyone to do something no one has done before.
Who mans the bullpen after the big three? I have little idea who is going to make up the rest of it. You could make a case for everyone trying to win a spot. I do think Hatcher is probably the odd man out since he’s out of options and probably not one of the seven best options. Avilan is also out of options and unless he’s hurt or horrible this spring, Avilan should make the team. You’d expect Dayton to have a leg up after his brilliant 2016 campaign but the numbers might have him starting out in AAA. Brandon Morrow has the stuff to be the best NRI option to make the 25 man roster, but he also has as much chance of being healthy by April 1st as any pitcher being better than Clayton Kershaw during the regular season.
Is Puig going to be healthy enough or are those dual hammy issues problematic? I have no idea. If they are a problem, then the team will have room for Toles and Andre in the outfield. If that is the case, Cody Bellinger might be knocking on that RF door before June.
Who is going to play LF? I think Andre Ethier beats out Andrew Toles for the strong-side platoon. One of Scott Van Slyke, Trayce Thompson, Darin Ruff, or Enrique Hernandez will handle the left-handers. Thompson has the most upside of the quartet and if healthy should eventually get that gig, but he may not be healthy enough come April to stake his claim to the job. It is not out of the question that Cody Bellinger simply takes the job in which case I should probably have added him to this roster table. I am however rooting for Toles to win the job.
At 35, is this the year that Adrian Gonzalez relinquishes his iron man title or does he continue to play 150 games or more? Let’s just say that it is a good thing Cody Bellinger is still here.
Which utility infielder will the Dodgers carry? Honestly, who cares except the players involved?
Which Enrique Hernandez will show up? The 2015 or 2016 version? or something in between? The safe bet is to say something in between. I hate being safe, I’m thinking the 2015 version is going to pop up again.
Whoever makes the 25 man team for opening day, they shouldn’t get comfortable. With Cody Bellinger knocking on a few doors, Urias hanging out in extended spring training, and all those starters needing a place to pitch, you can expect the roster to be as fluid as our President’s opinions.
This is a deep team, with the best starting pitcher in baseball, the best closer in baseball, a top five shortstop in baseball, the best pitcher from Japan in baseball, the best curveball pitcher in baseball, the best red-bearded 3rd baseman in baseball, the best switch-hitting framing catcher in baseball, the best Mexican 1st baseman in baseball, the best ex-Padre futility hitter turned studly 2nd baseman in baseball, the best Cuban right fielder in baseball, the best center fielder named ofter an athletic gear in baseball, the best left fielder to skip a year of baseball.
If that ain’t good enough, I don’t know what is.
The Godfather of Dodger blogs is moving on
Jon Weisman who parlayed his groundbreaking Dodger Thoughts blog into a position with the Los Angeles Dodgers has decided to move onto a different path and is headed for Showtime.
Jon will become the Vice President of Corporate Relations for Showtime
Weisman will be responsible for the strategic development and execution of media relations, and internal and external communications for the company
Jon’s last note on Dodger Insider was posted last week and contained this sweet nugget of information:
One thing I’m happy to say for certain is that I’m not done writing about the Dodgers. In the fall, I signed a deal for a book on the Dodgers that is scheduled to come out in 2018.
I kind of love and hate Jon. I love Jon for all the great writing he did about the Dodgers and how it intertwined within his life. I also kind of hate Jon for being such a good writer that his blog reeled me in twelve years ago and has left me dangling from the hook ever since.
Jon was responsible for me becoming a Dodger blogger at truebluela and while I’m not a good writer, I found I loved writing. You would have thought I’d have spent some time in the past ten years getting better at it, but I don’t like writing, I like “writing”. The fun part is taking the rush of words in my brain and putting them to paper. The laborious part is trying to make those words grammatically correct enough that the stream of consciousness was legible once it was pulled from the flow. That didn’t always happen, but it happened enough that I’m proud of a few things that came from me and without Jon I’m fairly certain I’d have never tried to write.
The biggest fish to fall from Jon’s Dodger Thoughts pond was Eric Stephen who has gone from Dodger Thoughts commentator extraordinaire onto editing the current version of truebluela. Eric can now boast of being a carded member of the BBWA and I’m fairly certain he doesn’t get there without springing forward from Dodger Thoughts.
I’m not sure the history of all the Dodger blogs that currently inhabit the Dodgersphere, but I feel comfortable in stating that Jon Weisman’s Dodger Thoughts paved the way for all of them. Yet, even though there are now a plethora of Dodger blogs no one does it the way Jon did it. Much like Vin Scully calling a game, Jon’s take was different than anyone else’s. Jon tied the Dodgers to himself, and thus you not only knew the Dodger 25 man roster, you learned a little about Jon along the way.
I wish Jon the best and look forward to his Dodger book, and I hope this path is the path that will give him the most satisfaction.
I also hope he loses the beard, some men simply aren’t meant to be bearded up.
Sergio Romo the ring king heads for LAD bullpen
Sergio Romo and his three World Series rings are headed home to the Dodger bullpen. For now it looks like he’ll be replacing Joe Blanton as the main right-handed setup man for Kenley Jansen. Blanton did good work last year but will only be remembered for his hanging slider to Miguel Montero that may have cost them the first game of the NLCS series. Blanton gets more shit for his one pitch mistake to Montero than the rest of the team seems to get for shitting the bed in games 4, 5, and 6.
Romo was born in Brawley, California to Mexican parents and was reportedly a huge Dodger fan growing up. For the first time in his professional career, Romo can help his childhood team instead of hurting them.
How much Romo has left in the tank is up in the air but there is little argument that Romo was a huge cog in the three World Championships the Giants have won in the twenty-first century. Even though Romo was tattooed in his first postseason appearance the Giants won that game and every single game he appeared in during their runs to those three titles. Romo appeared in nine series in that run, and in six of those series he gave up zero runs while pitching in 16 games.
Romo was recently pitching for Mexico
“Being in the Mexican uniform, it’s been quite the experience,” Romo said. “I was able to be around family that had I not seen in a while — and play in front of family that had not seen me play in the States. For me and for my Dad, especially, it’s been an unreal ride so far.
More than 2000 sliders ago, Romo was a good middle reliever for the Giants as they headed to the World Series. There, he faced Bengie Molina, who had just been traded from the Giants to the Rangers. After the Giants won, Molina gave the reliever “the greatest compliment.” The catcher told Romo that “catching it and seeing it in the box were two completely different things,” and that “if I don’t have confidence in my stuff, I’m a waste of talent.
Romo should replace Joe Blanton and might even be an improvement on him.
MLB Top 100 Prospects – Five Dodgers crack the list
The Dodgers:
- 13 – Cody Bellinger
- 49 – Yadier Alvarez
- 61 – Alex Verdugo
- 82 – Willie Calhoun
- 93 – Walker Buehler
Dodger Prospects traded in the past year:
- 33 – Jose De Leon – Tampa Bay via Logan Forsythe trade
- 85 – Grant Holmes – Oakland via Rich Hill trade
Notes:
Cody Bellinger went from not being on the list at all to being ranked number 13. That was the biggest leap of any prospect.
Bellinger is noted as having the most power
Bellinger was also made the all -defensive prospect pipeline team
First Base: Cody Bellinger, Dodgers
Not only is Bellinger the best power-hitting prospect in baseball, but he’s one of the top defensive first basemen to come through the Minors in years. He moves well around the bag, scoops throws out of the dirt, owns solid arm strength — and as a bonus, he can play all three outfield positions if needed.“I realize first base isn’t a premium position, but he has the potential to be one of the best defenders I’ve seen at the position,” a special assistant with a National League team said. “Add in the fact he’s a very capable outfielder, and he gets my vote.”
Delvin Perez made number 91. The Dodgers had a chance to draft Delvin when he was dropping in the draft but they elected to go with a different shortstop in Gavin Lux.
Last year Corey Seager was number one, this year it is Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox
Pitching fWAR in the twenty-tens decade
Bobby Down in the comments at www.truebluela.com posted the top fWAR for players in this decade. With his permission lets take a look at the pitchers.
Below are the top 20 pitchers sorted by fWAR showing any top ten finishes in fWAR for that season.
Clayton Kershaw had the best fWAR in 2016 even though he only pitched 149 innings. Maybe this has been researched already, but I have to think that Clayton leading the pitchers in fWAR without pitching at least 150 innings is probably a first in baseball history for any full season.
Few things that stand out:
Fighting for 2nd place:
Justin Verlander, David Price, and Max Scherzer will all be fighting for second place. Less than two fWAR separate the three pitchers. Verlander had a nice bounceback season in 2016 and might be able to hold off Scherzer and Price. Price will need his own bounceback in 2017 to stay in contention. Scherzer is at his peak, can he hold it for a few more years? If I was to bet I’d bet on Max Scherzer holding the second spot by the end of the decade.
Consistently good never great:
Jordan Zimmerman, Cole Hamels, and Steven Strasburg have managed to be three of the top twenty even though none of them have a top ten finish this decade. I doubt Zimmerman nor Hamels have one in their future but I do think Strasburg does.
Very impressive work by Hamels to have accumulated almost 29 fWAR in seven seasons without ever being in the top ten.
Quintana just makes the list but has only been pitching since 2012 (five seasons) giving him an average fWAR of almost 4 which is what Hamels has been doing. With Quintana sill in his prime, he should just keep moving up this list. The same can’t be said for Jordan Zimmerman who will probably fall off next year.
I would add Bumgarner to this list. He has two 10th place finishes but has totaled almost 28 fWAR in that time. Might as well add Johnny Cueto to this group.
Retired – Only Cliff Lee has retired from this group. With three seasons to go, I don’t think Cliff Lee will be in the top 20 when the decade is over. I’d have to see how many pitchers have already put up between 15 – 18 fWAR and are in their prime.
Greybeard – CC has been pitching forever and hasn’t touched a top ten since 2011. He won’t touch one in 2017 either and I wonder if he’ll be in the top twenty when the decade is over.
Headed the wrong way – King Felix isn’t far behind Max Scherzer but while Max was winning the NL CYA, King Felix was putting up a 4.63 FIP and generally looking nothing like the stud who dominated AL pitching along with Verlander from 2009 – 2014. Zach Grienke may get straightened out in 2017 but is also very possible that he’s headed downhill just one year removed from his brilliant 2016 campaign. Wainwright looks like the most done of these three.
Surprising Names – I was surprised to see Gio Gonzalez and Anibal Sanchez. Really surprised to see Gio. So surprised I have nothing to say.
Rising stars – Chris Sale and Corey Kluber
Morrow is today
I have a long history of liking injury prone pitchers and rarely do they pay off.
- Josh Johnson
- Brett Anderson
- Ben Sheets
- Brandon Morrow
are the four who come to mind and all of them left me looking silly. I have to keep that in mind as I continue to hope that Ryu can defy the injury odds and come back.
The Dodgers have decided to play my game. They just added long injured Brandon Morrow to the stable of oft-injured pitchers trying to help the Dodgers in 2017.
Morrow who always seemed to have the stuff of a bullpen pitcher instead of a starter will be trying to make the Dodgers major league bullpen this spring. At one time Morrow had as electric stuff as any in baseball but after making the 2015 Padre roster as the fifth starter his shoulder caused him to miss almost two years. Sound familiar? In his case it was a shoulder impingement, not a torn labrum but he has a checkered health history nonetheless.
Morrow made five starts in 2015 before being shut down on May 2nd. He would not pitch again for the Padres in 2015. Those five starts were good though, at least four of the five were.
May 2014 he suffered a torn tendon sheath in his right hand and missed four months, pitching just five innings in September.
After suffering an arm injury in May 2013 he was finally diagnosed in July with an entrapped radial nerve and would miss the rest of the season.
June 2012, Morrow suffered an oblique strain and would not pitch again until August 25th. He last start on Oct 3rd against the Twins shows why he kept getting chance after chance. Eight innings, eleven strikeouts, one walk, three hits, one earned run.
Morrow is the perfect NRI, a guy who when healthy can help but you get him for almost nothing because he can rarely stay healthy long enough to help.
He pitched his guts out!
I’m stealing this line from my friend Gary regarding Frias and his long-running oblique injury in 2016 which eventually sealed the deal for his DFA this past week to make room for our new minor league right-hand hitting outfielder Brent Eibner
Frias was once mentioned in a fangraphs article by Carson Cistulli which felt he could be quite the sleeper. Those who read the article felt they had something, but like many sleepers, he never woke up and the Frias Dodger legacy was never fulfilled.
Eibner will be joining Darin Ruf, Scott Van Slyke, Enrique Hernandez, and Trayce Thompson as right-handed hitting outfielders. Much like Trayce Thompson, Eibner comes to the Dodgers with the reputation as a good defensive outfielder who can hit left-hand pitching. Given the healthy history of Ruff/SVS/Thompson having Eibner as minor league depth seems like a good idea.
I’ve got no Mastercard
Dodgers pre-sales for 2017 goes on today, but only for owners of a MasterCard.
As a valued Mastercard® cardholder, you have the opportunity to purchase Dodgers home game tickets for the 2017 season, excluding Opening Day, before the general public.
- Wednesday, January 25
- 10:00am
- Purchase tickets to all Dodgers home games, excluding Opening Day
The problem is I don’t have a MasterCard. I was as surprised as you are. I have a visa debit card. I have an American Express card. I have Citi Costco visa card. I have several visa cards related to banking accounts.
Not a one one Mastercard.
hmmm
Dodgers, Yesterday and Today 