Will Trump’s State Dept handle Baseball Visa’s in time?
Given how inept the Trump admin has been so far, one has to wonder if the new state department is up to the task of getting all the foreign baseball players their visa’s on time for the players to report to spring training.
Just a quick peruse of baseball fantasy sites one can see a plethora of these type of notes:
Jose Miguel Fernandez 2B Los Angeles DodgersThe Dodgers are hopeful that Fernandez will have his visa issues resolved in time to report to major league spring training with the rest of the position players, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register reports.Fantasy Analysis
It sounds like Fernandez could be delayed a bit as he works through some visa issues, but he will eventually be in camp with the big-league squad. Fernandez, once considered a top player in Cuba, signed a minor league contract with the Dodgers in January. He has not played competitively since 2014 outside of 18 games in the Dominican Winter League last year, and with the return of Justin Turner and the acquisition of Logan Forsythe, Fernandez appears likely to begin the season at Double- or Triple-A.
In a few weeks we will know if the normal Visa problems that happen every spring has been magnified, or if it simply business as usual.
Should also be fun to see how the WBC is handled.
Final fWAR iteration
We have done the best fWAR for pitchers for this decade and the last ten years.
We have done the best fWAR for hitters for this decade, so now it is time to do best in the last ten years.
This will be my post on the work that Bobby Down did with fWAR. Time for him to get cracking on something else that will pique my interest.
You have to be sick of how great Trout is, but here is in 3rd place having only played five of the last ten years. He’s almost caught two HOF who played the entire ten years.
Hey look at that. Chase Utley is fifth.
Ex-Dodgers and current Dodgers on this list:
Adrian Beltre – future HOF, remains many a Dodger fans favorite even though he’s been gone over a decade now. Biggest mistake Depodesta ever made was not being more aggressive in signing him the in the fall of 2004.
Chase Utley – his HOF case will be curious, hard to get in as a second baseman but if Pedrioa gets in and he doesn’t shit should happen. Anyone who didn’t enjoy watching Chase play 2nd base last year for the Dodgers is a tool.
Adrian Gonzalez – here he is, one of the most consistent hitters of the past ten years.
Hanley Ramirez – for a few months as a Dodger, Hanley simply terrorized pitchers. Ned might get into the Dodgers top five trades of all time with his heist of Hanley for Eovaldi.
Russell Martin – For several years Martin was my favorite Dodger and I thought destined for greatness and then he wasn’t. Yet he recovered from his down seasons to become one of the most consistent catchers of the past ten years not named Yadier Molina.
Jayson Werth – Yeah Ned, Jayson Werth. Wrists take time to heal.

d
TC – 7 – Fleetwood Mac – Bare Trees / Heroes are hard to find

Here we go, this is why I’m doing this. Tape seven is Fleetwood Mac but these albums were before Stevie Nicks and Lindsey Buckingham joined them. Most people have never heard any Fleetwood Mac prior to that duo but let me tell you, those prior iterations were great and possibly better than the popular Fleetwood Mac that most are familiar with. I don’t have any Peter Green Fleetwood Mac albums and Bare Trees is the only Danny Kirwan LP that I ever heard but I’ve heard enough Peter Green influenced Fleetwood Mac music to know he put out some good stuff.
I can remember hearing my brother play these albums in the early 70’s, and asking Chris who they were. Prior to 1974, Chris owned all the albums in the house. I didn’t have any money to start buying my own until 1975 so many of these recordings were from his record collection, not mine. Anyway, I’ve heard many albums for the first time with little memory of it, but for some reason, I can still remember the first time I heard “Heroes are hard to find”. He lent me the album and then gave me Bare Trees to listen too. After that, he gave me the Buckingham Nicks LP. This would start a lifetime of sharing music as we had much the same taste until I X came into my world. I hope he still has his 1,000 plus LP’s, some day I’d like to peruse them again.
Bare Trees starts off side A. This was released in 1972 and featured Danny Kirwan who split the writing duties with Bob Welch. This would be the last album with Danny who was fired during the supporting tour of Bare Trees. Kirwan was evidently a gifted guitarist but not easy to get along with. The combo of Kirwan and Welch produced a good album. I had not heard this LP since I taped it 30 years ago. This is some funky good blues rock. Christie McVie did “Spare me a little of your Love” and that sounds just like anything the popular Mack did when they were at their zenith commercially. “Sentimental Lady” is Bob Welch at his best.
Track listing[edit]
| Side one | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| No. | Title | Writer(s) | Length |
| 1. | “Child of Mine” | Danny Kirwan | 5:09 |
| 2. | “The Ghost” | Bob Welch | 3:58 |
| 3. | “Homeward Bound” | Christine McVie | 3:20 |
| 4. | “Sunny Side of Heaven” | Kirwan | 3:10 |
| Side two | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| No. | Title | Writer(s) | Length |
| 1. | “Bare Trees” | Kirwan | 5:02 |
| 2. | “Sentimental Lady“ | Welch | 4:35 |
| 3. | “Danny’s Chant” | Kirwan | 3:16 |
| 4. | “Spare Me a Little of Your Love” | McVie | 3:44 |
| 5. | “Dust” | Kirwan | 2:41 |
| 6. | “Thoughts on a Grey Day” | Mrs. Scarrott | 1:46 |

Okay, I love “Heroes are hard to find”. This was Bob Welch’s finest work and his last. He left the band after this LP to concentrate on his solo career. This was probably best for Fleetwood Mac as they added Stevie Nicks and Lindsey Buckingham to replace him and become the mega group of the 70’s and 80’s. I’ve always enjoyed this LP and it was great to hear it again. I liked it enough that I’ll be putting this into my digital library. It was strange that Bob Welch was neglected by the HOF when honoring Fleetwood Mac but lawsuits against your band members tend to make things ugly.
“Bermuda Triangle” may not be a good song but it is too me.
| Side one | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| No. | Title | Writer(s) | Length |
| 1. | “Heroes Are Hard to Find” | Christine McVie | 3:35 |
| 2. | “Coming Home” | Bob Welch | 3:55 |
| 3. | “Angel“ | Welch | 3:55 |
| 4. | “Bermuda Triangle” | Welch | 4:08 |
| 5. | “Come a Little Bit Closer” | C. McVie | 4:48 |
| Side two | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| No. | Title | Writer(s) | Length |
| 1. | “She’s Changing Me” | Welch | 2:58 |
| 2. | “Bad Loser” | C. McVie | 3:25 |
| 3. | “Silver Heels” | Welch | 3:26 |
| 4. | “Prove Your Love” | C. McVie | 3:57 |
| 5. | “Born Enchanter” | Welch | 2:54 |
| 6. | “Safe Harbour” | Welch | 2:32 |
Kind of funny I must have had some extra time and added some other Fleetwood Mac Songs.
- Monday Morning
- Warm Ways
- Blue Letter
- Rhiannon
- Over my Head
- Crystal
- I’m so afraid – love this track
Baseball America Dodger Prospect Centric chat
Baseball America did a top 100 prospect chat several days ago. Since the Dodgers have numerous prospects in the top 100 let’s see what they had to say specifically about the Dodger prospects.
Could they be any more giddy about Bellinger?
Tony (Lakeland, FL): Who is the most likely of the top 100 to hit 50 homers in a season?
John Manuel: We went 70 grade power on Cody Bellinger, Eloy Jimenez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Hunter Renfroe and Aaron Judge. If I were picking one from that group, it would be Vlad Jr. first, Bellinger a close second. If Renfroe played elsewhere than Petco, I could see him having a crazy year where it all clicks and he approaches that.
Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-top-100-prospects-chat/#FjdehSxKBehtu1uG.99
—
Dan (Bakersfield): Is a .265/.350/.500 line realistic for Bellinger at peak? Do you expect him to be a better hitter than Joc Pederson?
John Manuel: Yes, I do think he’ll be better, I actually think that line sells his peak short. He’s a better pure hitter than Pederson with similar power, and he’s a whiz at first base defensively. We’re all in on Bellinger. I could see him peaking north of a .550 slugging with 35-40 homers, again, at his peak. It has a chance to be a very special bat.
Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-top-100-prospects-chat/#FjdehSxKBehtu1uG.99
Grant (NYC): Let's stir things up a bit - which player's name caused the most amount of argument between you BA staffers when putting this list together?
John Manuel: We definitely have worked hard to come up with a No. 4 pitching prospect. We had a clear consensus on Reyes, then Martes, then Anderson Espinoza . . . then after that it was a difficult time to line up those pitchers. Keller vs. Glasnow vs. Giolito, then Y. Alvarez vs. De Leon vs. Honeywell vs. Lopez vs. Kopech vs. Josh Hader. There is not a lot of separation between those nine pitchers. It’s very hard to come up with a consensus for those pitchers, and that debate took up a lot of our Top 100 meeting.
Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-top-100-prospects-chat/#FjdehSxKBehtu1uG.99
Ryan (USA): If Alvarez continues to dominate except at a higher level, could he move into the top 5 next year?
Kyle Glaser: Hey there, I’ve officially taken the baton. I do think that if Yadier Alvarez dominates the Cal League and rises up to AA with more excellent performance this year, he very well could be a top 5 prospect in the 2018 BA Top 100. Stuff is that good, now it’s just a matter of sharpening it and showing he can hold up under a full workload of innings against more advanced hitters
Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-top-100-prospects-chat/#FjdehSxKBehtu1uG.99
Hal (Fontana): Does Y. Alvarez have the mechanics to improve his control by a grade, and if so, would he have a shot at headlining this list a year from now? What's his upside?
Kyle Glaser: His upside is a true No. 1 starter. In regards to your mechanics question, that’s what the minors and player development is for. He’ll work to improve them, and we’ll see if it clicks. Only one way to find out
Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-top-100-prospects-chat/#FjdehSxKBehtu1uG.99
Mo (Miami, FL): Who would you consider to be better at playing second base - Isan Diaz or Willie Calhoun?
John Manuel: Diaz, no question. Calhoun ranks ahead because of the power, and for me, I see Willie winding up in left field as a Khris Davis type, only with more of a feel for hitting.
Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-top-100-prospects-chat/#FjdehSxKBehtu1uG.99
Tiny Lister (Compton, CA): Who was the guy that didn't make the top 100 consensus, but that you fought the hardest for inclusion?
Matt Eddy: Some of my picks to click who didn’t make the Top 100 were Brock Stewart (Dodgers) and Scott Kingery and Roman Quinn (Phillies). Some others with carrying tools who deserve mention: Padres 2B Luis Urias (hit), Reds OF Aristides Aquino (power), Cardinals OF Magneuris Sierra (speed, defense), Twins RHP Fernando Rodney (power stuff, plus control) and potential power-speed outfielders Desmond Lindsay (Mets) and Jesus Sanchez (Rays).
Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-top-100-prospects-chat/#FjdehSxKBehtu1uG.99
TC – 5/6 – Neil Young – Decades

Yeah, another Neil Young tape which now makes three of the first five having something to do with Neil Young.
Decades was released in 1977 as a triple album. Thus I have used two ninety minute tapes to record the complete package. This package includes all the work that Neil had done up to 1977, so it has his work with Buffalo Springfield, CSNY, Neil and Crazy Horse, and Solo Neil.
It also includes “Like a Hurrican” and “Long may you run” which were both previously unreleased.
This is a great compilation and the tape quality still holds up. “Down by the River” is given nine minutes. Hard to pick favorites from this massive compilation but here goes:
- Burned
- Mr. Soul
- Expecting to Fly
- Sugar Mountain
- Cinnamon Girl
- Cowgirl in the Sand
- Southern Man
- Ohio
- Old Man
- Harvest
- The Needle and the Damage Done
- Tonight’s the Night
- Like A Hurricane
- Love is a Rose
- Long may you run
Seeing Sugar Mountain reminds of a show I saw at the Fabulous Forum. It was a different opening for Neil as he put some theatrics into the show, opening the act by coming out of a coffin or box singing Sugar Mountain. At least that is how I remember it.
I’ll leave with the live version of Like a Hurricane. Don’t you love it when you hear the first chord and you know that song?
Like a Hurricane
Once I thought I saw you in a crowded hazy bar,
Dancing on the light from star to star.
Far across the moonbeam I know that’s who you are,
I saw your brown eyes turning once to fire.You are like a hurricane
There’s calm in your eye.
And I’m gettin’ blown away
To somewhere safer where the feeling stays.
I want to love you but I’m getting blown away.I am just a dreamer, but you are just a dream,
You could have been anyone to me.
Before that moment you touched my lips
That perfect feeling when time just slips
Away between us on our foggy trip.You are like a hurricane
There’s calm in your eye.
And I’m gettin’ blown away
To somewhere safer where the feeling stays.
I want to love you but I’m getting blown away.
The Mike Trout decade
Once again going to the well and using data provided by Bobby Down to show the best fWAR for position players this decade.
Clayton Kershaw owns the decade for pitchers and Mike Trout for hitters. How lucky have Los Angeles fans been to have the two best players in baseball playing for them?
Trout skipped the first two years of the decade and still holds an almost 20% lead over future HOF Miggy Cabrera. I’m guessing Harper was first in 2015 but he did not make the list. Otherwise, Trout has generated the most fWAR every year he’s played as a regular in the major leagues.
They all there one way or another. Trout does it with bat/glove, Miggy with bat alone, Beltre with glove first bat second. Anyone surprised to see Heyward on this list? Cub fans might be. Braun is extremely low.
And Bobby, where the hell is Matt Kemp:) I may have to show a decade of RBI to get Matt into the top ten. At least top 12 anyway. 23. 2 fWAR for Mr Kemp so at least he’s within a stone’s throw.
No Dodgers to be found, I’d have thought Adrian Gonzalez would have made it. Now I have to question if Bobby did this right.
Josh Donaldson has done some amazing work in a short amount of time.
Future HOF on this list might be Trout, Miggy, Beltre, Cano, Posey. Maybe McCutchen if he doesn’t crater out as so many CF do. Anyone else? Votto might have to get in via the Rock Raines way.
Holy cow is that Alex Gordon with 25.5 fWAR. That glove sure earned some fWAR because it sure wasn’t his bat.

TC – 4 – Buffalo Springfield / Neil Young / Poco

Tape four was a major disappointment as the tape was unplayable.
Side A was Buffalo Springfield Retrospective one of my favorite 60 bands. So much great stuff, Mr. Soul one of my favorite songs 50 years ago and today.
Nowadays Clancy Can’t Even Sing is something I’ll always sing with when I put it on. There is not a weak song in the LP playlist.
Side One:
- “For What It’s Worth” (Stephen Stills) – 2:37
- Recorded December 5, 1966, Columbia Studios, Los Angeles, California. Lead vocal: Stephen Stills. Bass: Bruce Palmer. Producers: Charles Green and Brian Stone. Running time incorrectly listed on the album’s cover as 3:00.
- “Mr. Soul” (Neil Young) – 2:35
- Recorded April 4, 1967. Lead vocal: Neil Young. Bass: Palmer.
- “Sit Down, I Think I Love You” (Stills) – 2:30
- Recorded August 1966, Gold Star Studios, Los Angeles, California. Lead vocal: Stills, Furay. Bass: Palmer. Producers: Green and Stone.
- “Kind Woman” (Richie Furay) – 4:10
- Recorded February–March 6, 1968, Atlantic Studios, New York City & Sunset Sound, Los Angeles, California. Lead vocal: Richie Furay. Bass: Jim Messina. Producer: Messina.
- “Bluebird” (Stills) – 4:28
- Recorded April 8, 1967, Sunset Sound, Los Angeles, California. Lead vocal: Stills. Bass: Bobby West.
- “On the Way Home” (Young) – 2:25
- Recorded November 15-December 13, 1967, Sunset Sound, Los Angeles, California. Lead vocal: Furay. Bass: Palmer.
Side Two:
-
“Nowadays Clancy Can’t Even Sing” (Young) – 3:26
- Recorded July 18, 1966, Gold Star Studios, Los Angeles, California. Lead vocal: Furay. Bass: Palmer. Producers: Green and Stone.
-
“Broken Arrow” (Young) – 6:13
- Recorded August 25 & September 5–18, 1967, Columbia Recording Studios & Sunset Sound, Los Angeles, California. Lead vocal: Young. Bass: Palmer.
-
“Rock & Roll Woman” (Stills) – 2:44
- Recorded June 22, August 8 & October 8, 1967, Sunset Sound, Los Angeles, California. Lead vocal: Stills. Rhythm guitar: Jim Fielder. Bass: Palmer.
-
“I Am a Child” (Young) – 2:15
- Recorded February 5, 1968, Sunset Sound, Los Angeles, California. Lead vocal: Young. Bass: Gary Marker. Producer: Messina.
-
“Go and Say Goodbye” (Stills) – 2:19
- Recorded July 18, 1966, Gold Star Studios, Los Angeles, California. Lead vocal: Stills. Bass: Palmer. Producers: Green and Stone.
-
“Expecting to Fly” (Young)– 3:39
-
Recorded May 6, 1967, Sunset Sound, Los Angeles, California. Lead vocal: Young. Arrangement: Jack Nitzsche
-
It is no surprise to me that my favorite Buffalo Springfield tracks were written by Neil Young.

I remember listening to a local broadcast doing an interview with Neil as they walked on the beach at Malibu. I know I have not heard this LP in its entirety in over 30 years. “Don’t cry no tears” and “Cortez the Killer” are the two songs that stand out to me as I look at the playlist.
If you like long Neil Young drawn out live songs you might like this Cortez the Killer youtube:
The final piece on the cassette was Poco and their Legend LP.

According to my playlist, I only recorded the second side of the LP which had
- Heat of the Night
- Crazy Love
- Last Good-bye
- Legend
This LP was released in 1978 and would have their biggest hit Crazy Love. Phil Hartman designed the cool LP cover. Not that Phil Hartman.
It is any wonder I liked Poco? They were formed from the remnants of Buffalo Springfield. 1/2 of Buffalo Springfield would go onto to create the supergroup CSNY and the other half created Poco. Simple country rock band
Jim Bowden goes bold
In a recent ESPN insider column, Jim Bowden predicted that Cody Bellinger would be the Dodgers starting left fielder. This led to some twitter ridicule but to be fair the headline for the column is “Bold Spring Training Predictions” so the predictions are supposed to be outside the lines. If your bold predictions don’t get mocked you didn’t go bold.
Just how silly was that prediction? If the Dodgers wanted to field the best team from the get go, maybe he should be? He won’t be but by the end of spring training, it might be clear that the best left fielder in the Dodger system goes by the name of Cody Bellinger.
Sure the Dodger outfield depth is Puig/Joc/Andre/Toles/Thompson/Gutierrez/SVS/Ruf/Hernandez but it would not be hard to make a case that Cody Bellinger on April 1st would be the 3rd best outfielder on the team.
Remember last year, Andre didn’t even get out of spring training. Thompson won’t be ready by April 1st. Hernandez might not even make the team. Gutierrez will be playing against left-handers in either RF/CF/LF. Ruf may not make the team. SVS may not make the team.
The competitions to face right-handed pitching are Andre and Toles. Andre is the fading starter coming off a mere broken bone that kept him out for 90% of the 2016 season. How much would it take to simply put him down for few weeks? Toles is the young bright star but is his star brighter than Bellinger?
Am I simply blowing hot air about Bellinger? Dips agree that Bellinger is the best offensive solution for left field.
This is one bold prediction by a baseball pundit that I won’t be mocking because injuries happen and by my count, Bellinger is 3rd on the depth chart to face right hand pitching.
Is Bellinger ready to play every day against all sorts of pitching? Probably not, but is it laughable that he might be? probably not.
Pitching fWAR last ten years
A couple of weeks ago I reviewed fWAR for pitchers in this decade courtesy of Bobby Down’s research. Today we will take a look at the last ten years and once again it was Bobby Down who did the heavy lifting. I’m just here to make pithy comments about the list.
There was no doubt that Clayton Kershaw would be the top fWAR earner for this decade but what about the last ten years? Remember he didn’t start pitching until 2008 and wasn’t a full-time pitcher until 2009.
Yup, there he is on top anyway with 53.5 fWAR. The chart below gives you the total fWAR for each pitcher over the past ten years (2007 – 2016) and if they had a top ten finish in fWAR.
Justin Verlander is the top AL pitcher. Kind of cool in this day of moving on that the top three pitchers have all pitched for the same team their whole career. Kershaw – Dodgers, Verlander – Tigers, and King Felix – Seattle. Verlander had a first and two 2nd place finishes. King Felix with nary a one 1st place finish. Shocking to me.
Kershaw’s pitching buddy from 2013-2015 ranks number four and has one 1st place finish back in 2009.
How about Cole Hamels? He never had a top ten finish but still manages to accrue the 6th most fWAR over the last ten years.
Ha ha, Ubaldo Jiminez is number 21.
Roy Halladay hasn’t pitched in three years but still managed to finish 12th. Cliff Lee hasn’t pitched in two years and clocked in at 7th.
Biggest surprise on this list if it isn’t Ubaldo? Maybe Gio again?
I would have expected John Lackey to be higher.
Ex-Dodgers on this list include Grienke, Haren, Nolasco, and old friend Kuroda.
Nolasco??? Okay, he’s the biggest surprise.

Rotational depth
I wonder how the rotational depth is going to play out among the 10 rotational options. They removed a key player in 2017 by trading Jose De Leon for Logan Forsythe but they still have many options.
When we did the roster a few days ago you couldn’t help but notice that the Dodgers could have way more arms than they need or not enough if no one bounces back from their 2016 injuries.
With Kershaw and Kenta inked in as one and two, and Hill and Urias somewhat three and four, which arms will find their way into the rotation from among Wood, Kazmir, McCarthy, Ryu, Stewart, and Stripling?
We know one thing going in, Urias will make about 20 major league starts. How the Dodgers decide to get him those starts will be one of the major stories of the 2017 season.
Last year the Dodgers used fifteen different starters with two of them making only one start. In 2015 they used 16 different starters with five of those making one start each. In 2014 they used twelve different starters with three of those making one start each.
I’m expecting 2017 to be more like 2014 and not 2015 or 2016.
I’m going to use this exercise t0 show how it could play out but I don’t think it will work that way
| Starter | | | EstGamesStarted | | | Left |
| Kershaw | | | 30 | | | 132 |
| Maeda | | | 26 | | | 106 |
| Urias | | | 20 | | | 86 |
| Hill | | | 19 | | | 67 |
| Brandon McCarthy | | | 19 | | | 48 |
| Alex Wood | | | 18 | | | 30 |
| Brock Stewart | | | 11 | | | 19 |
| Scott Kazmir | | | 9 | | | 10 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | | | 8 | | | 2 |
| Ross Stripling | | | 2 | | | 0 |
I’ll be honest, I can’t get a feel for how it will play out. There are simply so many variables, what I do know is how I do want it to play out.
I think the best rotation for the Dodgers would be Kershaw, Hill, Kenta, Urias, McCarthy with Wood in the bullpen, Kazmir on another team, Stripling/Stewart working out of the bullpen in 2017.
But a part of me really wants to get Stewart 10 – 20 starts. We will revisit this exercise once we see the health of everyone on March 20th but here goes for now:
| Starter | | | EstGamesStarted | | | Left |
| Kershaw | | | 31 | | | 131 |
| Maeda | | | 25 | | | 106 |
| Brandon McCarthy | | | 23 | | | 83 |
| Urias | | | 22 | | | 61 |
| Hill | | | 21 | | | 40 |
| Brock Stewart | | | 16 | | | 24 |
| Alex Wood | | | 13 | | | 11 |
| Other | | | 8 | | | 3 |
| Ross Stripling | | | 3 | | | 0 |
| Scott Kazmir | | | 0 | | | 0 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | | | 0 | | | 0 |
Meh, that looks too safe. I want to go out on a limb and predict that Ryu is gonna change everything.
| Starter | | | EstGamesStarted | | | Left |
| Kershaw | | | 31 | | | 131 |
| Maeda | | | 25 | | | 106 |
| Ryu | | | 25 | | | 81 |
| Hill | | | 25 | | | 56 |
| McCarthy | | | 22 | | | 34 |
| Urias | | | 12 | | | 22 |
| Alex Wood | | | 10 | | | 12 |
| Stewart | | | 8 | | | 4 |
| Ross Stripling | | | 4 | | | 0 |
| Scott Kazmir | | | 0 | | | 0 |
How about that for some pie in the sky optimism? If I was a betting man I’d probably take the under on just about every single starter except Urias and Kazmir which tells me I need a more realistic viewpoint.