Rotational depth

Phil Gurnee ♦ February 13, 2017 ♦ 3 Comments

I wonder how the rotational depth is going to play out among the 10 rotational options. They removed a key player in 2017 by trading Jose De Leon for Logan Forsythe but they still have many options.

When we did the roster a few days ago you couldn’t help but notice that the Dodgers could have way more arms than they need or not enough if no one bounces back from their 2016 injuries.

With Kershaw and Kenta inked in as one and two, and Hill and Urias somewhat three and four, which arms will find their way into the rotation from among Wood, Kazmir, McCarthy, Ryu, Stewart, and Stripling?

We know one thing going in, Urias will make about 20 major league starts.  How the Dodgers decide to get him those starts will be one of the major stories of the 2017 season.

Last year the Dodgers used fifteen different starters with two of them making only one start. In 2015 they used 16 different starters with five of those making one start each. In 2014 they used twelve different starters with three of those making one start each.

I’m expecting 2017 to be more like 2014 and not 2015 or 2016.

I’m going to use this exercise t0 show how it could play out but I don’t think it will work that way

Starter	|	EstGamesStarted	|	Left
Kershaw	|	30	|	132
Maeda	|	26	|	106
Urias	|	20	|	86
Hill	|	19	|	67
Brandon McCarthy	|	19	|	48
Alex Wood	|	18	|	30
Brock Stewart	|	11	|	19
Scott Kazmir	|	9	|	10
Hyun-Jin Ryu	|	8	|	2
Ross Stripling	|	2	|	0

I’ll be honest, I can’t get a feel for how it will play out. There are simply so many variables, what I do know is how I do want it to play out.

I think the best rotation for the Dodgers would be Kershaw, Hill, Kenta, Urias, McCarthy with Wood in the bullpen, Kazmir on another team, Stripling/Stewart working out of the bullpen in 2017.

But a part of me really wants to get Stewart 10 – 20 starts. We will revisit this exercise once we see the health of everyone on March 20th but here goes for now:

Starter	|	EstGamesStarted	|	Left
Kershaw	|	31	|	131
Maeda	|	25	|	106
Brandon McCarthy	|	23	|	83
Urias	|	22	|	61
Hill	|	21	|	40
Brock Stewart	|	16	|	24
Alex Wood	|	13	|	11
Other	|	8	|	3
Ross Stripling	|	3	|	0
Scott Kazmir	|	0	|	0
Hyun-Jin Ryu	|	0	|	0

Meh, that looks too safe. I want to go out on a limb and predict that Ryu is gonna change everything.

Starter	|	EstGamesStarted	|	Left
Kershaw	|	31	|	131
Maeda	|	25	|	106
Ryu	|	25	|	81
Hill	|	25	|	56
McCarthy	|	22	|	34
Urias	|	12	|	22
Alex Wood	|	10	|	12
Stewart	|	8	|	4
Ross Stripling	|	4	|	0
Scott Kazmir	|	0	|	0

How about that for some pie in the sky optimism? If I was a betting man I’d probably take the under on just about every single starter except Urias and Kazmir which tells me I need a more realistic viewpoint.