Remember when the Dodgers never lost if they scored four runs?

The Dodgers lost two games in April when they scored four runs or more.

The Dodgers lost four games in May when they scored four runs or more.

The Dodger lost one game in June when they scored four runs or more.

They lost zero games in July when they scored four runs or more.

The Dodgers have lost two games in August when they have scored four runs or more.

See anything interesting?

Gm# Date Opp W/L R RA
17 Friday, Apr 21 @ ARI L 5 13
18 Saturday, Apr 22 @ ARI L 5 11
35 Thursday, May 11 @ COL L 7 10
38 Sunday, May 14 @ COL L 6 9
39 Monday, May 15 @ SFG L 4 8
44 Saturday, May 20 MIA L 6 10
67 Thursday, Jun 15 @ CLE L 5 12
130 Tuesday, Aug 29 @ ARI L 6 7
131 Wednesday, Aug 30 @ ARI L 4 6

How about that the Diamondbacks were the team who beat them both times in April when they scored four runs or more, and are the same team to do the trick twice in August?

The Dodgers are 75 – 9 when they score four runs or more, they are 75 – 5 against everyone but the Diamondbacks when they score four runs or more. They have one loss at home when they score four runs or more.

For those who want to panic, as you can see from the schedule the Dodgers were outscored in Arizona 24 – 10 in those two games. The Dodger record on April 22nd was 8 – 10. It is now 91 – 40.

Don’t panic.

Route 66 has a quirky problem

Jeff Sullivan was the man for the job. I had just visited Fangraphs and couldn’t figure out why Puig had such a low fWAR for a man having his season.

It just so happened that Jeff Sullivan was wondering the same thing and looked into it and found that Puig has one glaring problem this season. 

Yasiel Puig rates as one of the worst baserunners in baseball.

This didn’t make much sense until I remembered that for some reason hitting into double plays is calculated as part of the base running stat. We know he’s hitting into more double plays than he ever has, but he also ranks as one of the worst baserunners when he does get on base.

Jeff goes through this quite thoroughly and based on his information I’m going to go with the fact that Puig has simply been extremely unlucky this year.

At least the eye test with Puig on defense is holding up. Not one regular right fielder in the NL has a positive defensive fWAR number except for Puig. Puig is a 5.5, the closest RF in the NL is …… Curtis Granderson at -.50. 

How about them apples?

Ok, now about the whole double play being part of a baserunning stat. I don’t get it. If you don’t get credit for being able to hit with runners on base (RBI), why would you get dinged because the hard ground ball you hit, turned into a double play?

 

Diamondbacks look like a post season team

It is funny how circumstances change so rapidly in this game. A year ago there was no team more disappointing than the Diamondbacks who won only 69 games. It is only August 30th, and they have already won 74 games. From a laughingstock to a bonafide contender in one winter.

In a normal year, Arizona would be battling for the Western Division. They currently have a .561 winning percentage, and the Dodgers won the division last year with a .562 winning percentage.  They just picked a bad year to have a good year but they can take solace in that they should control their own destiny if they want to play in the play-in game.

I mentioned a few weeks ago that I expected the Diamondbacks to take control of the wild card race and that seems to be happening. They have won five in a row and now have a two game lead on the Rockies and a six game lead over the Brewers.

The team has it all, good hitting, good power, good starting pitching, and even a good bullpen.  With Robbie Ray back, and Patrick Corbin pitching like he did before his TJ surgery they have a staff that can match anyone in a postseason series along with an ace in Greinke that can take the ball in a play – in game.

 

 

 

Bellinger’s back

It turns out that Adrian Gonzalez is not an adequate replacement for Cody Bellinger. I was wrong on Adrian, I had hoped that Adrian would show that with his back somewhat healed he could once again provide some butter and eggs but instead he has looked very much like the same player who displayed an anemic bat before hitting the disabled list.

Adrian has had a couple of good swings, but for the most part, he’s been horrible.

Split         PA 2B HR RBI   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
April/March   96  5  0  10 .259 .337 .318 .654
May           55  4  1  10 .269 .273 .404 .677
June          31  2  0   3 .214 .258 .286 .544
August        45  3  1   4 .190 .222 .333 .556

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/30/2017.

When Cody returns tonight, Dave Roberts has said that he is his first baseman so while Adrian may see a start or two, at this point, it looks like he is going to be a bench player most of the time.

Cody has some work to do if he wants to catch Frank Robinson and set the NL rookie home run record. Cody has not homered since August 12, and sure he hasn’t played since August 19th, but he hasn’t had many spells of five games without a home run. At 34 he still needs one to tie Mike Piazza for the LAD rookie home run record.

Arizona Fall League for 2017

Last year the Dodgers Arizona fall league was loaded with Cody Bellinger, Willie Calhoun, and Alex Verdugo.  Willie Calhoun would win the AFL All-Star game MVP while Cody Bellinger let everyone know he was going to be a player to be reckoned with in the summer of 2017.

This year the team looks a little light with the current roster being Yusniel Diaz, DJ Peters, Matt Beaty, Will Smith, Andy Sopko, Isaac Anderson, Michael Boyle,  and Shea Spitzbarth.

Will Smith needs the reps after getting hurt this summer as he tries to keep in front of Keibert Ruiz and Connor Wong on the catching depth chart but I don’t think he’s going to be able to hold them off.

Matt Beaty will get a chance to show his skill set in front of the multitudes of scouts who inhabit the AFL. Beaty had a great year at AA, and was named the Player of the Year for the Texas League but isn’t on any prospect lists.

DJ Peters was the California League MVP and should enjoy the light air of Arizona.

Yusniel Diaz is the highest ranked of the prospects and should be intriguing to watch as he tries to show a reason for his prospect status.

Pitchers don’t fare well in Arizona and I don’t expect Sopko or Spitzbarth to do much impressing.

 

Fontastic

Wilmer Font completed his amazing regular season in AAA with a flourish, pitching six shutout innings. Font finished the game with six innings, three hits, zero runs, one walk, and eight strikeouts.

Font will surely be the Pacific Coast League Pitcher of the Year finishing the year 2nd in ERA with those above 100 innings (3.24), first in strikeouts with 178, first in SO/9 at 11.9, first in SO/BB ratio with at least 100 innings (5.9),  first in WHIP with at least 100 innings at 1.10.

Font did it all this year but could not break into the Dodger rotation. We have no idea what we have in Font but he’ll get a shot at the major leagues somewhere next year.

The Dodgers are gunning for a World Championship so may not have the roster space or the time to reward Font for his season with a few starts this Sept, that is understandable, but he deserves some kind of reward for having himself quite a season.

Can Stanton lead Marlins into the postseason?

Giancarlo Stanton for me epitomises what an MVP player is. He is taking a team that has no business having any postseason aspirations and placed them on his shoulders as he tries to carry a load that no mere mortal could handle.

Split          PA HR RBI  OBP   SLG   OPS
April/March   100  7  16 .350  .529  .879
May           115  7  21 .348  .579  .927
June          112  7  13 .357  .516  .873
July          113 12  23 .407  .731 1.138
August        110 17  35 .482 1.000 1.482

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/28/2017.

Don Mattingly was trying to give credit to other members of the team such as Dee Gordon.

Gordon’s ability to reach has put teams in a tough spot, because it makes it more difficult to pitch around the slugger.

“Dee is the key to that,” manager Don Mattingly said. “Dee getting on base changes things. You have to pay a little bit of attention to him. G’s been able to take advantage of that.”

and for a second I bought into that. Until I checked the splits for Gordon for August. That OBP of .303 isn’t doing much setting up.  But I will say the just about every time Dee does manage to get on on-base, he is scoring. Dee has reached base thirty times in August and scored twenty-three runs.  For context, Chris Taylor has reached base thirty-six times in August and scored 50% of the time with eighteen runs.

Don Mattingly moved Stanton to the number two hole and the results speak for themselves.

Split          PA HR RBI  OBP  SLG   OPS
Batting 2nd   364 39  78 .420 .751 1.171
Batting 4th   155 11  29 .335 .565  .901
Batting 5th    28  0   1 .321 .346  .668

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/28/2017.

Batting order may not mean much but for Giancarlo Stanton, they mean the difference between being an MVP and simply being great.  For this move alone you could consider giving Don Mattingly the Manager of the Year award if the Marlins make the postseason.

Speaking about the postseason, at the break the Marlins were 41 – 46 and lost five of the first six after the break to put them at 42-50.  Since that time they are 24 – 13 and with 66 wins are now 4.5 games back of the Rockies for the 2nd wild card. That is still a ways to go but they do have a soft schedule coming up. Still, the odds are high they will not make the postseason but for the first time in a long time, I would have no problem giving my MVP vote to a player on a team who did not make the postseason.

It isn’t just Stanton, but he is the biggest part of the Marlin resurgence. The Marlin outfield is playing like the best outfield in baseball. And when Dee Gordon does run, he has learned to pick his spots. Dee is 8 of 9 in SB in August and 46/10 for the season. Ex-Dodger AJ Ellis is having a nice August as All-Star Realmuto struggles, and Miguel Rojas has been the starting SS for most of the month.

Player               Split Year HR  PA  OBP   SLG   OPS
Giancarlo Stanton   August 2017 17 110 .482 1.000 1.482
Christian Yelich    August 2017  3 105 .381  .478  .859
Marcell Ozuna       August 2017  7 103 .408  .575  .982
Dee Gordon          August 2017  0 100 .303  .316  .619
J.T. Realmuto       August 2017  4  96 .208  .360  .568
Derek Dietrich      August 2017  3  95 .400  .506  .906
Miguel Rojas        August 2017  0  88 .295  .278  .574
Tomas Telis         August 2017  0  55 .273  .314  .586
Tyler Moore         August 2017  0  49 .229  .267  .496
Mike Aviles         August 2017  0  36 .353  .355  .708
A.J. Ellis          August 2017  2  28 .357  .429  .786
Ichiro Suzuki       August 2017  1  23 .391  .500  .891

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/28/2017.

Other crazy baseball notes.

The  Indians held the KC Royals scoreless this past weekend. The Royals have not scored in thirty-four innings which is a club record.

Rhys Hoskins is eclipsing all of the records that Cody Bellinger set earlier in the year. Hoskins hit his 11th home run yesterday, in just his 18th game. For good measure, he started a triple play yesterday.

Hoskins has homered in eight of his last nine games. The only game in which he didn’t hit a home run came in the nightcap of a doubleheader, so he’s actually hit a home run in eight straight days that the Phillies have played a game.

And now this:

For the rest of us under the age of 50, it may simply be enough to know that even if we’re having a particularly bad day, statistically speaking things are going to get a lot worse before they get better.

Evidently, my happiness is supposed to be on the upswing.

FFA Week of August 21st – 27th

Farm Factory Award for the week of August 21st – August 27th had plenty of competition running the gamut from an 18-year-old up and coming prospect to a 28-year-old journeyman minor leaguer who is having the hottest stretch of his minor league career.

The Contenders;

Scott Barlow – AA/Tulsa – Barlow pitched a brilliant game going seven innings, three hits, two earned runs, one walk, and ten strikeouts. Barlow has been fantastic at AA/Tulsa but did struggle when promoted to AAA/OKC earlier in the summer.

Matt Beaty – AA/Tulsa – Beaty collected a hit in every game this week, but the main reason he is here is that he won the Texas League Player of the Year award which is pretty cool.  

With 11 games left, Beaty is hitting .325 — third in the league — as he tries to become the first Driller to win the batting title. He has 14 homers and 62 RBIs. The left-handed hitting Beaty is batting .388 in August and has been a big factor in the Drillers’ late-season surge that has included their current team-record, 13-game home winning streak.

Beaty leads the TL with an .891 OPS, is second with a .509 slugging percentage and 29 doubles, tied for fourth in hits with 129, and fifth with 202 total bases. He has one of the TL’s best ratios for making contact with 48 strikeouts in 397 at-bats and has been solid defensively with only seven errors.

I’ve always liked left handed hitting 3rd baseman and no one seems to have him on their radar so this award was kind of surprising.  Craig Minami pointed out that if Edwin Rios had not been promoted he probably would have won this award. They are both 3rd/1st players, but I have zero idea how Beaty is defensively at the corners.

Quincy Latimore – A+/Rancho – Quincy had quite a game last week hitting two home runs and collecting eight RBI but he’s not all about that one game.  I skipped Quincy last week because he is a 28-year-old outfielder playing in the California league but he has been killing it. I just wanted to mention him, but I can’t let someone that old take an award that is meant for prospects, and Quincy simply isn’t.  He’s in the California League because he couldn’t hit in AA/Tulsa. I’m not even sure why he’s in the Dodger organization. But he is tearing the cover off the ball.

DJ Peters – A+/Rancho – DJ Peters won the California League MVP Award for 2017.  He is not up for the weekly award but I wanted to get this not out there. DJ has hit 24 home runs, but has also struck out 182 times. I can’t imagine anyone has ever won the California League MVP who led the league in strikeouts.

Connor Wong – A/Loons – Connor Wong had a heck of a week and Baseball America noticed. Twice in the same week, he made the daily write-ups.

Early in the week:

Connor Wong, c, Dodgers. Another 2017 draft pick, Wong, a third-rounder, also had a big night Monday. The Houston alum was 3-for-4 with two doubles and a homer as low Class A Great Lakes beat Fort Wayne (Padres) 5-3. Wong is slashing .257/.321/.471 in low Class A and after playing a multitude of positions in college has exclusively been a catcher in pro ba

Later in the week:

Connor Wong, c, Dodgers. Wong, a third-round pick out of Houston, is in the midst of a power surge. He clubbed two Saturday in Great Lakes’ 5-4 win over Dayton (Reds) and has five homers in his past seven games. Wong is known for a versatile skill set and his ability to play multiple positions will be an asset.

For the week, Wong was eight for fifteen with three home runs.

Riley Ottesen – A/Loons – 2017 5th round pick made his 3rd start for the Loons count going four innings, three hits, zero earned runs, zero walks, and eight strikeouts.

Melvin Jimenez – A/Loons –  Melvin just turned eighteen a month ago, and is already raising eyebrows in the Midwest League. He isn’t pitching a lot of innings but he is dominating when he does pitch. Last week he only got eight outs but got six of them via the strikeout without giving up any hits. Over his last two outings, he has gotten sixteen outs, with eleven of them coming from strikeouts while giving up zero runs and just two hits.   Fangraphs has talked about him a few times, here and here.

The Dodgers’ 17-year-old, 6-foot righty Melvin Jimenezhas been up to 97 and is also flashing a plus breaking ball.

Any information on Dodgers RHP Melvin Jimenez? 6’0″, 170 lber out of DR in the Midwest League who *just* turned 18. Was in the DSL All-Star Game last year but didn’t come over for Instructs. Was in the AZL for all of 11.0 IP this season before his promotion to Great Lakes. From his last start, he’s a fastball/curve guy, didn’t see any changeups, but the curve looked impressive. Thoughts on a pitcher so young (he’d be starting his senior year of high school this coming fall) making it to full-season A-ball in his second season?
Eric A Longenhagen: 93-96 in AZL before promotion, have heard he’s touched higher than that. Below avg height and command, scout I spoke to only saw curveballs too. Relief risk, but the stuff is good.

And the winner of the Farm Factory Award for the week of August 21st – August 27th is….

Connor Wong

Other Minor League Notes:

Walker Buehler and Keibert Ruiz win Dodger honors as minor league players of the year

 

The Chicken runs at midnight

The pressure to take over for one of the greatest voices in baseball history had to be daunting, I’m sure some would not even make the attempt, Dodger fans should consider themselves lucky that Joe Davis decided to uproot his Midwestern family and take them West.

This weekend has given Joe plenty of fodder to tell his stories,  the same kind of stories that were a staple of Vin but I have to say, Joe’s sometimes go just a little bit deeper into the emotional bailiwick.  By the time Joe finished with his “the chicken runs at midnight” story of Rich Donnelly / his daughter Amy / Craig Counsel, he had my complete attention.  Which was pretty amazing given that I had been napping and woke up in the middle of the story and as he kept saying Rich,  I thought he was talking about Rich Hill.  When I realized it was not Rich Hill, I rewound the DVR to the beginning of the story.  This was a long story, and I realized that Joe may have waited until Pedro Baez had taken the mound to tell the story so that he knew he’d have time to get it in.

I may have read or heard the story before, print but I had never heard it with such timing.

If I was going to attempt to tell that story, my voice would have choked up and given it all away, but Joe was able to keep his composure as he told a story that surely brought a tear to many of those who listened.

My wife loves Joe’s stories but she was taking a nap, so I put the game on pause so she could hear this one. When she hears it, I expect she will say to me once again, “that Joe Davis is really good”, and I’ll nod again in affirmation.

Thanks, Joe.

If you didn’t get to hear Joe tell his story, this ESPN story gives it quite a telling. I know many of you don’t click on the provided links, but you should click on this one.

 

Kershaw takes the mound in AAA

With many familiar faces taking the field with him.

Trayce Thompson is in CF
Andre Ethier is in LF
Rob Segedin is at 3B
Joc Pederson is at DH
Charlie Culberson is at SS

With only Andre doing rehab work it just shows how hard it is, to stay in the major leagues after you have made it. Even someone like Joc Pederson who thought he was done with AAA unless it was in a rehab situation is going to find it hard to find a place on the Dodger 25 man roster.

Andre seems guaranteed to make the team when the rosters are expanded in September, but who else will?

Is there any spot for last years Vin Scully game hero Charlie Culberson? Or do they simply reward him for being a good guy and sticking out the whole season at AAA?

Same could be said for Justin Masterson.

Hard to say Trayce Thompson has earned the right.  Or Segedin.

Will be awkward for Joc given he not only lost his starting job but any job at all.