Three game set with Nationals not really a preview of NLCS

While the Dodgers have been throwing two of the pitchers expected to start in the postseason, Alex Wood and Rich Hill, the Nationals were not so accommodating throwing Edwin Jackson and Alex Cole, neither of whom will be pitching in the National rotation come October.

The Nationals are also missing possibly the best player in the NL in Bryce Harper. Still, it is always good to win two games on the road against the team trying to catch you for the best record in baseball. With those two victories against the Nationals, the Dodgers have put some extra length between them and the Nationals making it virtually impossible to blow the best record in the NL with so few games remaining.

Tonight the Dodgers get to see the hottest pitcher in baseball in Steven Strasburg. Strasburg came off the DL on August 19th and gave up two runs in six innings.  Both those runs came in his first inning of work, and those were the last runs he has given up in his last 34 innings.

Facing him will be Hyun-Jin Ryu who can’t compete with Strasburg on stuff but given that this is a Sunday Night matchup can match him on domination. Ryu has pitched twice on Sunday Night TV and both times was excellent. He has yet to give up a run on Sunday Night TV and his two best games scores of the year were by far on Sunday Night.

Ryu will try to make his case to be the fourth starter in the October rotation, and you can’t ask for a better audition than against the team you might be facing in October. Whatever happens tonight Ryu has come a long way from the pitcher that no one was counting on April 1st, 2017. Among a season of surprises,  his production has to rank at least 3rd behind Cody Bellinger and Chris Taylor.

Date DayofWeek Opp Rslt IP H ER BB SO GSc
7/30/2017 Sunday Night SFG W,3-2 7 5 0 1 7 73
8/6/2017 Sunday Night NYM W,8-0 7 1 0 0 8 83

Chase Utley joins the 400/200/100 club for 2nd baseman

With his two doubles today, Chase Utley now has 400 doubles in his career. Many second baseman have had 400 doubles, but not many have had

400 doubles

200 home runs

100 stolen bases

who have played at least 75% of their games at second base.

Player           WAR/pos  HR  2B  SB From   To    PA  OPS      Pos
Joe Morgan         100.4 268 449 689 1963 1984 11329 .819 *4H/7D58
Lou Whitaker        74.8 244 420 143 1977 1995  9967 .789    *4H/D
Ryne Sandberg       67.7 282 403 344 1981 1997  9282 .795  *45/H6D
Roberto Alomar      66.7 210 504 474 1988 2004 10400 .814   *4/HD6
Chase Utley         65.3 258 400 150 2003 2017  7651 .828  *4H/3D5

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/16/2017.

All HOF except Sweet Lou Whitaker and Chase who is still adding to his numbers. You can see why Sweet Lou is one of my favorites when people ask who is the best player not in the HOF?

Each of those players also has a world series ring except Ryne Sandberg.

If we lower the percentage threshold to 65% the great Roger Hornsby and Craig Biggio join the list.

Even at 50% nothing changes, which is far as I’ll go.

Catching Piazza, Catching Frank Robinson

A few minutes ago Cody Bellinger hit his 38th home run to catch Frank Robinson for the NL rookie record for home runs.  Frank Robinson hit his 38th home run on Sept 11th and would not hit another home run the rest of the year. Hopefully, the same fate does not await Cody Bellinger.  This record has stood for over 1/2 a century with some of the greatest home run hitters in baseball history taking a swing at it and coming up empty.

Next up, 40 and beyond

Player                      HR Year Age  Tm Lg  PA   OPS
Cody Bellinger              38 2017  21 LAD NL 489  .960

Frank Robinson (RoY-1st)    38 1956  20 CIN NL 667  .936
Wally Berger                38 1930  24 BSN NL 628  .990

Albert Pujols (RoY-1st)     37 2001  21 STL NL 676 1.013
Mike Piazza (RoY-1st)       35 1993  24 LAD NL 602  .932
Ryan Braun (RoY-1st)        34 2007  23 MIL NL 492 1.004
Earl Williams (RoY-1st)     33 1971  22 ATL NL 550  .815
Chris Young (RoY-4th)       32 2007  23 ARI NL 624  .763
Jim Ray Hart (RoY-2nd)      31 1964  22 SFG NL 625  .840
Willie Montanez (RoY-2nd)   30 1971  23 PHI NL 683  .798

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/16/2017.

Good thing the Phillies waited until August 10th to bring up Rhys Hoskins who has hit an astounding 18 home runs in his first 150 plate appearances.  Cody had twelve after his first 150 plate appearances. 

What a long strange trip it has been for Edwin Jackson

Once upon a time in Sept of 2003, Edwin Jackson shocked the baseball world by outpitching prime Randy Johnson on his 20th birthday. I started this article with the headline once I saw that Edwin Jackson was pitching tonight and was ready to research a fun story.

My first search was the big game just mentioned, and to my surprise, Edwin Jackson has already had a few articles written about him. I guess I should not have been surprised since he is pitching for the Washington Nationals these days and not the San Diego Padres. What made me laugh was that one article had the headline.

Edwin Jackson’s Long, Fascinating Road
That looks eerily similar to what I had decided to go with. Heck, no point in my doing any research,  Eric Nusbaum of Vice sports hits all the pertinent points

“If he stays healthy, he’s going to pitch up here a long time,” Brown said.

Brown was right. Jackson has pitched in the major leagues for a long time. Only one other player who appeared in his debut is still in the majors—that would be Adrian Beltre—and four players who appeared in that game have since gotten jobs as big league managers. But Jackson’s career has not necessarily gone the way his teammates might have expected after that auspicious debut. He has been traded six times. He has pitched for twelve teams. On Tuesday, he will start for the Washington Nationals in Anaheim. This will be his second stint with the Nationals and his second team of the 2017 season.

I guess you could say the air was let out of my ballon. I will simply add my personal sense to the debut game by Jackson. At the time the Dodgers had Jackson in the Majors for his debut and 18-year-old Greg Miller had already pitched in AA. I was really envisioning a Drysdale/Koufax for the 21st century. Miller never even got to the major leagues, and as was noted above, Edwin Jackson has defined journeyman pitcher in the 21st century.
What happened, however, doesn’t change how excited I was to watch Edwin match Randy Johnson pitch for pitch in his debut. It was one of the greatest pitching debut’s I’d seen by a Dodger given his age.  I’m as shocked as anyone that Edwin is still in the National rotation in Sept, but I’m also quite pleased about it.

Don’t forget about the World Champions

From May – August 26th the season has been about the Dodgers with the Cubs barely keeping in contact of the postseason.  The Dodgers are trying to fight off the Nationals for the best record in the NL but the team that no one should be sleeping on are the Cubs.

The offense is in high gear and it wasn’t just the Mets they beat up on.

39 runs in the past three games against the Met pitching but five times they have scored at least 14 runs since August 26th.

Kyle Schwarber is now doing what we expected him to do. He is not just a Sept darling he’s has been mashing since he came back from the minor leagues. Note to Joc, that is what you are supposed to do when you are a major league hitter and go back to AAA. Find your swing, return, and mash.

They are doing this with their two best hitters Rizzo and Bryant just paddling along, not quite doing their share of the rowing.

Player               Split Year   OPS PA HR   BA  OBP  SLG
Rene Rivera       Sept/Oct 2017 1.084 21  1 .368 .400 .684
Albert Almora     Sept/Oct 2017 1.042 24  2 .333 .333 .708
Kyle Schwarber    Sept/Oct 2017 1.029 29  2 .346 .414 .615
Javier Baez       Sept/Oct 2017  .896 43  2 .308 .357 .538
Ben Zobrist       Sept/Oct 2017  .889 45  0 .333 .444 .444
Anthony Rizzo     Sept/Oct 2017  .845 51  1 .286 .392 .452
Kris Bryant       Sept/Oct 2017  .792 56  1 .239 .357 .435
Jason Heyward     Sept/Oct 2017  .769 47  2 .262 .340 .429
Ian Happ          Sept/Oct 2017  .731 44  2 .231 .295 .436
Alex Avila        Sept/Oct 2017  .693 21  0 .188 .381 .313
Jon Jay           Sept/Oct 2017  .536 36  0 .219 .286 .250
Victor Caratini   Sept/Oct 2017  .425 10  0 .125 .300 .125
Tommy La Stella   Sept/Oct 2017  .259 16  0 .071 .188 .071

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/15/2017.

Dodgers need the return of the four horsemen

300px-Apocalypse_vasnetsov

Sure, this is obvious.

One of the horsemen was back but hardly anyone noticed because the team kept losing. The second one joined him this week and it directly resulted in two victories for the Dodgers. If they hope to have any chance in October it would behoove the other two horsemen to join Bellinger/Turner and make a charge to break through the thorny walls of October that have eluded many other stacked Dodger teams in the 21st century.

For most of this summer, the Dodgers had four qualified MVP candidates.  They were so good it was ridiculous out productive the first four hitters were night after night. That all ended on August 27th, but for the Dodgers to have a shot in October they need the four horsemen to provide something close to the kind of production they had provided from April 1st – August 27th.

This is what the four have done in Sept.

Player              Split Year HR PA   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS
Cody Bellinger   Sept/Oct 2017  3 56 .286 .375 .612  .987
Justin Turner    Sept/Oct 2017  2 51 .318 .412 .591 1.003
Chris Taylor     Sept/Oct 2017  1 53 .226 .226 .321  .547
Corey Seager     Sept/Oct 2017  0 31 .222 .290 .296  .587

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/15/2017.

Turner has been quietly hitting, and I say quietly because he was doing this while the team was losing, while the Bellinger break out this week resulted in the only two wins since the Dreamers were put on a see-saw.

The Dodgers can probably beat bad teams with just two of the horsemen making hay, but to beat the October teams, I think they will need the Chris Taylor engine to reignite and Corey Seager to overcome his elbow issues and provide the production he has provided for most of his major league career.

We should be legitimately worried about Chris Taylor, not because he’s hitting .226 in Sept but because his OBP is also .226 which means he still hasn’t taken a walk in Sept. Maybe my wishing for Lorenzo Cain wasn’t such a bad idea after all.

 

 

Making out a lineup card

Last night the Dodgers won 4 – 1 behind the excellent pitching of Yu Darvish, and timely hitting of Cody Bellinger, along with a spectacular play by Kiké Hernandez.

The interesting part for me though was the lineup the Dodgers used. With left handed Matt Moore going you knew the lineup would have Kiké, Barnes, and Forsythe.

Dave Roberts dropped Puig from 5th to 8th, moved/kept Forsythe at 5th and batted Barnes/Hernandez sixth and seventh respectively.  The idea of the struggling Forsythe batting fifth while the red hot Puig was dropped to eighth was a little eye opening.

Several bloggers defended the move by showing off Logan’s left handed splits for the year and Puig’s. That seemed a tad disingenuous to me. Puig has the same great history as Forsythe of hitting left-hand pitching but started out slow against them this year. Slow might be an understatement.

Puig has been one of the Dodgers hottest hitters since the break, Forsythe one of the worst. If you bring in the splits by using the split tool from Fangraphs you can see that Forsythe is only hitting .208 against LHP in the second half with zero home runs, and four doubles in 66 plate appearances. His saving grace are his 13 walks.  All of Logan’s damage against LHP came in the first half where he hit .386 with eight extra base hits. Add in the 12 walks in just 72 plate appearances you had a valuable player against LHP.

Puig, on the other hand, hit .164 in the first half against LHP as that was what was keeping him from becoming an elite hitter in 2017.  Only 3 XBH, with two doubles and one home run.  I had heard he was having a much better 2nd half against LHP but when you look at the hit tool you see some improvement but not enough to make my case that he shouldn’t be hitting 8th against LHP. Oh well, I got this far so why stop. Puig in the 2nd half is only hitting .194. Hmm. How about August? Not so good. We actually have to cherry pick his Sept numbers to get any type of argument in his favor. In Sept, Puig is hitting .286 with three walks in a tiny sample size of 17 plate appearances. All the numbers quoted are against left-hand pitching.

So my conclusion is that even with Puig appearing to be hot, Dave Roberts made the right decision last night in batting Forsythe 5th. I would have batted Puig sixth not eighth and while Forsythe/Barnes/Hernandez combined to go 1 for 9, Barnes did garner two walks, and Logan one so the trio got on base four times in twelve plate appearances. Forsythe hit a key single in the 1st inning to plate Cody Bellinger who had tripled.  His other three at-bats were typical Logan this year, two strikeouts and one walk.

I think as this month progresses and if Puig continues to improve against left-hand pitching you want him getting as many at-bats as possible instead of what he would get from the eight spot.  Maybe Dave Roberts didn’t like the idea of Bellinger getting three intentional walks on Tuesday night with Puig hitting behind him.  I kind of think that since the Dodgers didn’t trade for JD Martinez and Adrian Gonzalez looking done they have no real choice but to live and die with Puig in the five spot.  It is not ideal but that is what you have when Joc/Granderson/Adrian aren’t options, and Grandal has currently hit a wall.

Hernandez made a spectacular play from left field last charging a medium pop fly and taking it on the dead run and nailing the runner at first who was in no man’s land because of the spot of the fly ball. It was a tough throw on the run, and he did it perfectly. If only Hernandez was still hitting. Dave Roberts mentioned yesterday that Hernandez would play every day against LHP for the rest of the year and presumably in the postseason.  It is not ideal but at least he’s the best defensive left fielder the Dodgers have and maybe he can get his bat going by the time he has to face Robbie Ray or Patrick Corbin or Gio Gonzalez or Jon Lester.

Bellinger put all his tools on display in the Dodger two game winning streak. You kind of knew that for the Dodgers to find the winning path, that one of the four horsemen would need to lead them and it was Cody who stepped up. On Tuesday Night he made one of the best plays by a Dodger 1st baseman you will ever see but the Giants would not let him beat them with his bat by walking him three times intentionally. On Wednesday he did all his damage before they remembered to walk him. In the first, he hit a triple and it was really a stand-up triple even though he slid, more to stop his momentum than anything else. He followed that with a splash home run, and the splash home run is one of the great home runs of the 21st century. We don’t have many, so it was fun to see Chase and Cody do it in back to back games. He also made another fine play on a bullet line drive to his right.

Yu looked great but it was against the Giants. I heartily approve of Yu being skipped against the Nationals, no need in giving them advance notice of his repertoire.

The curious case of Gilberto Reyes

With 19-year-old Keibert Reyes being promoted to AA this week to help Tulsa with their postseason run I was curious if any Dodger catching prospect had ever made it to AA while still a teenager.

I headed to Baseball Reference and sorted every catcher and their rookie season with the Dodgers to find out the age they debuted with the Dodgers.

The one name that stood out was Gilberto Reyes. He would never exhaust his rookie status with the Dodgers. He made his debut at age 19 in 1983 and he wasn’t just a September call-up. His debut date was June 11th, 1983.  He would be on the roster from June 11th – July 27th and start eight games. He went back to the minors and did come back in Sept but played very little. The Dodger catchers in 1983 were Steve Yeager, the infamous Jack Fimple, Mike Scioscia, Gil Reyes, and Dave Sax.

According to David Young of TrueblueLA, Reyes got the call because of an injury to Mike Scioscia.  Not only was Gilberto Reyes the youngest catcher to ever play for the Los Angeles Dodgers but he also got a ring in 1988 and never played a game in the postseason. Dave knew an interesting story when he saw it.

“I remember what happened to Gilberto Reyes. Scioscia injured his back [in Game 4 of the World Series] and we had gotten permission from [then-Commissioner] Peter Ueberroth to bring Reyes to Oakland. I had him fly in from the Dominican. He flies out–he got there the night of what proved to be the final game. He walks into the clubhouse about the time they started popping champagne bottles. The guy has flown in all the way from the Dominican Republic to get soaked in champagne.”

Year    Age   Tm  PA  OPS OPS+
1983     19  LAD  32 .413   15
1984     20  LAD   5 .000 -100
1985     21  LAD   3 .667  107
1987     23  LAD             0
1988     24  LAD   9 .222  -35
1989     25  MON   5 .400   15
1991     27  MON 229 .546   56
7 Yr   7 Yr 7 Yr 283 .510   46
162     162  162 376 .510   46

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/13/2017.

For a catcher who debuted at age 19 he had a very unsubstantial major league career and would end his career with only 283 major league plate appearances. Bill Plaschke doing what he does best, writing about sad stories, and Gilberto Reyes was one of them.

Kevin Pasley debuted with Dodgers at the age of 20 but would only play in one game without getting any plate appearances, and that was in 1973. He also would end up with an unremarkable major league career, getting only 132 major league plate appearances.

This leaves Mike Scioscia as the man to follow. Which we will do next.

Rk              Name Age Year  Tm  PA   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS   Pos
1          Gil Reyes  19 1983 LAD  32 .161 .188 .226  .413    *2
2       Kevin Pasley  20 1974 LAD                        0   /*2
3          Gil Reyes  20 1984 LAD   5 .000 .000 .000  .000 /*H*2
4      Mike Scioscia  21 1980 LAD 152 .254 .313 .328  .641  *2/H
5          Gil Reyes  21 1985 LAD   3 .000 .667 .000  .667  /*2H
6     Dioner Navarro  21 2005 LAD 199 .273 .354 .375  .729    *2
7    Darrin Fletcher  22 1989 LAD   9 .500 .556 .875 1.431  /*2H

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/13/2017.

Dodgers don’t lose twelve in a row

and if Clayton Kershaw doesn’t get hurt they might win three more games this season.

Levity kids, levity.

Anyway, Clayton was not at his best last night but the offense woke up just enough to break the Dodgers eleven game losing streak.

If you want more levity the Dodgers are 0 – 15 since August 26th in games that Kershaw did not start.

Date                          Opp  W/L    R   RA   W-L     GB       Win
Saturday Aug 26      boxscore MIL    L    0    3 91-37 up20.0    Davies
Sunday Aug 27        boxscore MIL    L    2    3 91-38 up19.0    Nelson
Tuesday Aug 29       boxscore ARI    L    6    7 91-39 up18.0    Godley
Wednesday Aug 30     boxscore ARI    L    4    6 91-40 up17.0       Ray
Thursday Aug 31      boxscore ARI    L    1    8 91-41 up16.0   Greinke
Saturday Sep 2 (1)   boxscore SDP L-wo    5    6 92-42 up14.5      Hand
Saturday Sep 2 (2)   boxscore SDP    L    2    7 92-43 up14.5   Baumann
Sunday Sep 3         boxscore SDP    L    4    6 92-44 up13.5    Chacin
Monday Sep 4         boxscore ARI    L    0   13 92-45 up12.5       Ray
Tuesday Sep 5        boxscore ARI    L    1    3 92-46 up11.5 Hernandez
Wednesday Sep 6      boxscore ARI    L    1    3 92-47 up10.5    Walker
Friday Sep 8         boxscore COL    L    4    5 92-49 up10.0     Rusin
Saturday Sep 9       boxscore COL    L    5    6 92-50 up10.0    Bettis
Sunday Sep 10        boxscore COL    L    1    8 92-51 up 9.0  Chatwood
Monday Sep 11        boxscore SFG    L    6    8 92-52 up 9.0       Law

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/13/2017.

But today is a new day and the Dodgers have a one game winning streak. Much of that can be attributed to a brilliant defensive fourth inning.  After a lead off double by Todd Hundley,  Justin Turner fields a tough bounce down the 3rd base line but throws errantly to 1st base. Cody Bellinger makes like Michael Jordan and goes vertical and horizontal to catch the errant throw and while several feet in the air, manages to tag Austin Slater so instead of 1st and 2nd with no outs, the Giants have one out and a runner on second. Calixte flies out to RF, and the Puig cannon fires one of best throws. It landed perfectly in the glove of Justin Turner on the bag. The runner never even attempted to advance to 3rd, but the throw itself was a thing of beauty.

Tomlinson would single to CF but Chris Taylor charged,  threw his own bullet to Grandal and Hundley was so far out, he simply stopped running.

They didn’t make it easy and it is a testament to the struggle of the team that the two games they have won since Aug 27th have been 1 – 0 and 5 – 3.  Don’t think the ship is righted yet, this was just one victory against the worse team in the National League, but it was a win they desperately needed.

Second half stats and Sept stats

Staring at an eleven game losing streak I was curious about the team stats for the second half and just sept.

Second Half Stats:

Puig has squeezed himself into the top four passing Bellinger, Seager, and Turner.

Player                 Split Year  OPS GS  PA 2B HR   BA  OBP  SLG
Chris Taylor        2nd Half 2017 .915 49 226 15  9 .314 .363 .552
Yasiel Puig         2nd Half 2017 .907 45 191 10  9 .272 .382 .525
Cody Bellinger      2nd Half 2017 .898 43 182  7 11 .276 .352 .546
Corey Seager        2nd Half 2017 .846 42 194  9  6 .324 .371 .475
Austin Barnes       2nd Half 2017 .834 18  94  3  1 .321 .436 .397
Justin Turner       2nd Half 2017 .821 49 214 12  9 .265 .346 .476
Yasmani Grandal     2nd Half 2017 .708 37 156  6  8 .213 .282 .426
Chase Utley         2nd Half 2017 .690 19  89  5  2 .238 .315 .375
Enrique Hernandez   2nd Half 2017 .664 19  99  3  3 .213 .293 .371
Logan Forsythe      2nd Half 2017 .636 42 178  7  2 .203 .343 .294
Adrian Gonzalez     2nd Half 2017 .574 14  61  5  1 .207 .230 .345
Joc Pederson        2nd Half 2017 .547 26 100  6  2 .149 .260 .287
Curtis Granderson   2nd Half 2017 .534 20  86  0  4 .111 .256 .278

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/12/2017.

Sept Stats:

You can see part of the problem. Two of the players who carried the team all year, Corey Seager and Chris Taylor are both struggling. Since they normally hit 1 and 2, that is leaving precious few base runners for the best hitter in Sept, Justin Turner.  In Sept, once you get past Puig in the five spot, the bottom of the lineup are simply out makers.

Player                 Split Year  OPS GS PA 2B HR   BA  OBP  SLG
Justin Turner       Sept/Oct 2017 .985 10 41  4  2 .324 .390 .595
Andre Ethier        Sept/Oct 2017 .833  3 15  0  1 .286 .333 .500
Yasiel Puig         Sept/Oct 2017 .813  9 38  4  1 .265 .342 .471
Cody Bellinger      Sept/Oct 2017 .771 11 46  3  2 .233 .283 .488
Austin Barnes       Sept/Oct 2017 .763  4 20  0  0 .313 .450 .313
Alex Verdugo        Sept/Oct 2017 .653  4 18  0  1 .188 .278 .375
Enrique Hernandez   Sept/Oct 2017 .647  2 17  1  0 .294 .294 .353
Adrian Gonzalez     Sept/Oct 2017 .636  3 11  1  0 .273 .273 .364
Logan Forsythe      Sept/Oct 2017 .606  8 33  1  1 .200 .273 .333
Corey Seager        Sept/Oct 2017 .586  4 21  1  0 .250 .286 .300
Chris Taylor        Sept/Oct 2017 .581  9 43  2  1 .233 .233 .349
Joc Pederson        Sept/Oct 2017 .408  4 13  0  0 .100 .308 .100
Yasmani Grandal     Sept/Oct 2017 .341  8 32  0  1 .038 .188 .154
Curtis Granderson   Sept/Oct 2017 .297  9 35  0  0 .097 .200 .097
Chase Utley         Sept/Oct 2017 .277  5 15  0  0 .077 .200 .077

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/12/2017.