Brandon McCarthy going back to the cutter

♦ April 20, 2017 ♦ 1 Comment

Part of McCarthy’s success this year has been his strand rate of 86% but he has made changes to how he pitches this year. In the past, he didn’t use his cutter this much but in 2017 he is using the cutter at almost the same rate (22%) as his curveball (24%).  For context, he used his cutter only 14% during his breakout 2014 season. Before 2014 he had been using the cutter over 30% of the time. His ground ball rate has spiked back to 50% which is the highest since his breakout in 2014. Of course he has barely pitched since 2014 so that 38 % groundball rate in 2015 and 2016 are meaningless.

It would seem that for McCarthy to keep his success going in 2017 he will need to reduce his walk rate so that when his strand rate starts to normalize (at least 70%) he won’t be severely punished and might get a push.  The big selling point on McCarthy in the winter of 2014 was that outstanding walk rate of 1.49. It is now 3.71.

There is a lot to like about McCarthy this year, his velocity is outstanding for him (93MPH), solid K rate, going deep into games (for a Dodger pitcher not named Kershaw), and excellent ground ball rate. If he can just keep these gains while knocking down the walk rate he just might be a very useful rotation piece and for the first time as a Dodger, earn his salary.

Dodger DL moves in 2017 so far

♦ April 20, 2017 ♦ 3 Comments

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/20/2017.

Courtesy of rotowire:

Given we have heard little about Andre I would be pushing that estimated return date. Same for Scott Kazmir. Logan Forsythe is expected to miss several weeks since it is a hairline fracture so I’d expect that estimated return to be put further out.

Player Name Pos Injury Move Estimated Return
Dayton, Grant P Side 10-Day DL 4/29/2017
Ethier, Andre OF Back 10-Day DL 5/1/2017
Forsythe, Logan 2B Toe 10-Day DL 4/30/2017
Garcia, Yimi P Elbow 60-Day DL 3/1/2018
Gutierrez, Franklin OF Hamstring 10-Day DL 4/24/2017
Hill, Rich P Finger 10-Day DL 4/16/2017 ***
Hill, Rich P Finger 10-Day DL 4/26/2017
Kazmir, Scott P Hip 10-Day DL 4/24/2017
Baez, Pedro P Arm 10-Day DL 4/12/2017 ***
Ravin, Josh P Groin 10-Day DL 4/21/2017
Segedin, Rob OF Toe 10-Day DL 4/30/2017
Stewart, Brock P Shoulder 10-Day DL 5/1/2017

Dodgers depth charge Rockies

♦ April 20, 2017 ♦ 1 Comment

The 2017 Dodger mantra has been depth depth depth, and on Wednesday night they put that on display. Both teams have had to play with numerous players on the DL and while the names of Enrique Hernandez, Scott Van Slyke, and Chris Taylor don’t put fear into the hearts of their opponents their bats did.

  • Enrique tripled and doubled from the leadoff spot. This was the first time since July 1st, 2015 that Hernandez had tripled and doubled in the same game.
  • Scott Van Slyke got the offense going with a solo blast. This was his first home run since June 13th, 2016.
  • Chris Taylor lined two doubles into left field. This was the first time in his career that Taylor had multiple doubles in a game.

That was just enough to give the Dodgers a two-run victory with Clayton Kershaw once again providing ample pitching along with Kenley Jansen and the rare four-out save.

Before the game started the Dodgers lost Logan Forsythe and Rob Segedin to the DL. Segedin had just been called up as a replacement for Rich Hill three days ago. During the game, the beleaguered Rockies lost Carlos Gonzalez when Clayton hit him on the hand.

I counted three replacement players for the Rockies:

Cardullo, Mark Reyolds, and Garneau. They went a combined one for ten with two RBI.

I counted four replacement players for the Dodgers:

Enrique Hernandez, Brett Eibner, Scott Van Slyke, and Chris Taylor. They went a combined five for twelve, with two RBI, and three runs scored.

The Rockies, rocking adversity

♦ April 19, 2017 ♦ 2 Comments

The Rockies are now 10 – 5 and they have done it the hard way:

  • Starting 1st baseman and big 2017 winter free agent acquisition Ian Desmond on the DL (should join them shortly)
  • Starting LF David Dahl hit the DL in March. He had a great debut in 2016 and much was expected of him in 2017.
  • Trevor Story hit his 1st home run last night and came into the game with an OPS of .514
  • Their number one ace Jon Gray went on the DL where he will spend at least a month
  • Their number three pitcher Chad Bettis fell victim to a recurrence of cancer and will miss the season as he fights for his life..
  • Three-time all-star right fielder Carlos Gonzalez has an OPS of .507
  • They have been without the services of their expected starting catcher Tom Murphy(should join them shortly)
  • They have had to use two rookies in the rotation

Lately, the Colorado Rockies have had a good start but eventually get swallowed by the summer.

  • 2014 – On May 7th they were 22 – 14 and in first place. That would be the last time they were in 1st place.
  • 2015 they were 10 – 7 on April 24th.  In 2016 they were 8 – 5 on April 18th.
  • 2016 they were 8 – 5 on April 18th.

I thought headed into the season that this Rockie team could pose a threat but with the injuries in March, I didn’t think they had the depth to handle the injuries. I can’t see this rotation surviving but the front office might get creative and find a way to help the rotation.  They stacked up the bullpen by picking up Greg Holland who leads major league baseball in saves and gave up his first earned run of the year last night.

Fade away might have been their song for the last few years but maybe Not Fade Away will be it in 2017?

Ryu gives Dodgers eighteen outs

♦ April 19, 2017 ♦ 1 Comment

but Arenado shows Dodger infielders how to hit a home run.

The highlight of the game was this amazing play by Ryu and Gonzalez as Adrian showed he still has major league reflexes.

Dodger infielders have hit two home runs since opening day both belonging to Cory Seager.

  • Adrian – zero , Forsythe – zero, Turner – zero
  • Grandal has zero home runs since opening day
  • Joc Pederson has zero home runs since opening day.
  • Trevor Story hit one, and Arenado two last night.

Ryu got eighteen outs becoming the first Dodger pitcher outside of Kershaw and McCarthy to accomplish the task. He pitched a solid game but the long ball was his undoing. If only he had the luxury of facing a Dodger lineup that folds up against any left-hand pitcher not named Patrick Corbin.

It is one thing to lose a game to the likes of Jon Lester. It is another to continue to lose to the likes of Clayton Richard, Kyle Freeland (twice), Brett Anderson, and Robbie Ray.

It is not all rocks and rattles, they have managed to beat Tyler Anderson and Patrick Corbin. Anderson starts tonight, maybe they can manage it again.

 

 

The Cuban Y’s get smacked around

♦ April 19, 2017 ♦ 2 Comments

The Dodgers have poured millions into Cuban players and other than Puig have seen little return on investment. Yasiel Alvarez was supposed to change that dynamic and had such a great debut on the mainland last summer he sprang to the top of the Dodgers elite pitching prospects.

Alvarez was held back this spring at what they call extended spring training but was finally assigned to Rancho Cucamonga in the Cal League on Monday.  With great anticipation, he made his debut and hardly has a number one pitching prospect ever been hammered like Alvarez was hammered.  The twenty-one-year-old gave up a run for every out, giving up seven runs on nine hits while walking two. Even worse he failed to strike out anyone and his flagship velocity was nowhere to be seen.  Hopefully, we can just chalk this up to Lancaster which might be the most offensive minor league park in baseball and the velocity to the fact it was his first start. Hopefully.

That was on Monday, on Tuesday Yaisel Sierra came on in relief and couldn’t find the plate. Sierra got two outs, walked three, gave up one run and left with the bases loaded. He was bailed out of more damage Edward Parades who got him out of the bases loaded jam without allowing any inherited runners to score. Sierra had been pitching well with only one walk on the season prior to his implosion last night.  He had pitched and looked so good this spring you could even manage a scenario where he might help the big club this spring.

To top off a bad two days for the prospects, Mitchell White also got hammered in Lancaster last night ending his excellent start to the season.  White gave up his first runs of the year, getting only five outs before exiting.

I think we will just hang these games on Lancaster and not get hung up on them.

Kiké Hernandez looks like 2015

♦ April 18, 2017 ♦ 1 Comment

at least the way he’s playing if not his bleach blonde locks.

One of the biggest disappointments of 2016 was Kiké” Hernandez who had to fight off Chris Taylor to win his spot on the 2017 opening day roster.  Many eyes were on Hernandez as he would be counted on to help the Dodgers bounce back against LHP.

The Dodgers may still be struggling against LHP, but you can’t blame Hernandez. In limited at-bats, he has an ISO of .353 (2nd best on the team). His wOBA is a heady .380. His walk rate is in the double-digits and his strikeout rate in the single digits.

Ha ha ha, OK, it is only 19 PA and most of those good numbers are based on his home run last night. So yeah, he hasn’t proven anything yet with the bat, but I have liked how he has looked.

Especially last Saturday when he started in LF and ended at 2nd base. He made two excellent plays at 2nd. The one that really impressed me was the one where he went out and ignored the hard-charging Puig to make a great catch going away while Puig hit the dirt at his feet.

Over the next two games against the Rockies, he should see more time with two lefties being thrown at the Dodgers.  I expect the girls in the stands to have plenty to cheer about as their bleached blonde matinee idol comes through for them.

Seager’s 4 strikeouts joins not so select company

♦ April 18, 2017 ♦ 1 Comment

Most of the time when we have written of the exploits of Cory Seager they have always been in a positive matter. Today we will try something different and hope this does not become a trend.

Last night Seager struck out four times, and it was not the first time he has done this. He now joins Dave Anderson, Maury Wills, and Greg Gagne as the only LAD shortstops to have struck out four times in a game twice.

Player                Date PA SO
Corey Seager    2016-07-06  7  4
Corey Seager    2017-04-17  4  4
Dave Anderson   1984-08-27  4  4
Dave Anderson   1987-09-06  7  4
Greg Gagne      1997-05-19  4  4
Greg Gagne      1997-09-13  4  4
Maury Wills     1965-09-02  5  4
Maury Wills     1972-06-18  6  4

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/18/2017.

Delving into Goose-Eggs

♦ April 18, 2017 ♦ 2 Comments

Last night Joe Davis was describing a new stat that Nate Silver would like to implement to replace the horrid save stat. It is called Goose-Eggs after the great HOF relief pitcher Goose Gossage. I knew even before Joe started describing what the stat would entail that I would like it because I’ve always disliked the modern save stat, and the bullpen usage that has become commonplace because of the stat.  Modern day managers, manage to the stat and not to the game situation. That started to change last year with Andrew Miller shedding light on something that was commonplace in the 60’s and 70’s.

Suffice to say, I LOVE GOOSE-EGGS

A relief pitcher10 records a goose egg for each inning in which:
It’s the seventh inning or later;

At the time the pitcher faces his first batter of the inning:

His team leads by no more than two runs, or

The score is tied, or

The tying run is on base or at bat

No runs (earned or unearned) are charged to the pitcher in the inning and no inherited runners score while the pitcher is in the game; and
The pitcher either:
Records three outs (one inning pitched), or

Records at least one out, and the number of outs recorded plus the number of inherited runners totals at least three.

Nate has provided a whole database for every season for every pitcher. This will be a quick overview of the top LAD Goose Egg seasons but I hope to delve into this in more detail later as this isn’t just a new stat, but in theory, the proper way to use your best bullpen pieces. Here are top ten Goose-Egg seasons by a LAD relief pitcher:

Here are top ten Goose-Egg seasons by a LAD relief pitcher:

name year goose_eggs broken_eggs mehs gwar
Mike Marshall 1974 66 20 8 1.152789
Ron Perranoski 1963 62 9 7 4.536201
Charlie Hough 1976 58 9 6 4.894337
Mike Marshall 1975 57 14 8 1.862441
Jim Brewer 1970 55 11 4 4.419016
Charlie Hough 1977 55 21 8 -0.276733
Jay Howell 1989 55 5 5 4.870559
Steve Howe 1980 51 12 14 2.183871
Jim Brewer 1969 50 13 4 2.143223
Ron Perranoski 1967 48 8 4 3.001465
Ken Howell 1986 48 19 6 -0.2419165
Jim Gott 1993 48 10 6 2.914261

Here are the top ten gWAR (goose egg WAR) by a LAD relief pitcher:

name year gwar goose_eggs broken_eggs mehs
Eric Gagne 2002 5.458059 46 3 5
Eric Gagne 2004 5.405847 46 5 4
Eric Gagne 2003 5.189788 47 4 1
Charlie Hough 1976 4.894337 58 9 6
Jay Howell 1989 4.870559 55 5 5
Ron Perranoski 1963 4.536201 62 9 7
Jim Brewer 1970 4.419016 55 11 4
Takashi Saito 2006 4.384585 36 4 5
Jonathan Broxton 2009 4.275378 40 4 2
Todd Worrell 1995 4.088851 35 3 2

Mike Marshall had the most goose eggs but he also had the most broken eggs thus knocking him off his perch. Gagne wins out the GWAR because he pitched so many perfect innings and because the LAD offense was so limited in 2002 and 2003 he came in many times in close situations. I have not broken down his seasons, that is just what I think happened.

Definitions:

Broken Eggs:

A relief pitcher records a broken egg for each inning in which:

He could have gotten a goose egg if he’d recorded enough outs;
At least one earned run is charged to the pitcher; and
The pitcher does not close out the win for his team.

 

 

Time for Ryu to get 15 outs

♦ April 18, 2017 ♦ 2 Comments

Ryu has been the victim of a tough schedule having to pitch on the road against the Rockies and Cubs but tonight he makes his first appearance at Dodger Stadium, and the team really needs him to put some outs on the board.

This will be the last start of the third time through the rotation, and so far only Clayton Kershaw and Brandon McCarthy have been able to get more than 15 outs.  This is much like last year, once again complicated by Rich Hill’s blister (who could possibly have foreseen that happening?).  If you don’t think this is problematic, then you were probably okay with Chris Hatcher trying to get nine outs last night in a very close game. As Orel said, one run down against Rodney seems doable, two runs, not so much.

Player                   Date   Rslt  IP H ER BB SO
Clayton Kershaw    2017-04-14  W 7-1 8.1 4  1  1  8
Clayton Kershaw    2017-04-03 W 14-3 7.0 2  1  0  8
Clayton Kershaw    2017-04-08  L 2-4 6.0 8  4  0  6
Brandon McCarthy   2017-04-12  W 2-0 6.0 4  0  3  4
Brandon McCarthy   2017-04-06 W 10-2 6.0 4  2  1  4
Brandon McCarthy   2017-04-17  L 2-4 5.0 5  2  3  8
Kenta Maeda        2017-04-09 W 10-6 5.0 5  4  1  5
Rich Hill          2017-04-05  W 3-1 5.0 2  1  3  5
Kenta Maeda        2017-04-04  L 0-4 5.0 6  3  2  4
Hyun-Jin Ryu       2017-04-13  L 0-4 4.2 6  4  2  5
Hyun-Jin Ryu       2017-04-07  L 1-2 4.2 6  2  1  5
Kenta Maeda        2017-04-15  W 8-4 4.0 4  4  1  5
Alex Wood          2017-04-10  L 2-3 3.2 3  1  5  4
Rich Hill          2017-04-16  L 1-3 3.0 5  2  2  2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/18/2017.