Can Justin Turner accomplish this crazy stat?
As of right now on 04/26/2017 Justin Turner has eighty plate appearances, no home runs, and an OPS > .900.
Only one LAD in history has ever accomplished this task in March/April.
His name was Brett Butler and it was 1994.
How about other months?
Hmm. Much more common in May. Jose Offerman did it twice, Rafy Furcal once, and Juan Pierre in beast mode did it once.
Nobody did it in June
Nobody did it in July
Here we go. Ted Sizemore did it in August of 1970 one season removed from his ROY season of 1969. Sizemore would only hit one home run in 1970 and had a season OPS of only .717 so you can imagine what his other monthly splits were. If you can’t imagine let me show the ugliness:
Split PA BA OBP SLG OPS April/March 60 .255 .317 .291 .608 May 79 .282 .354 .338 .692 June 30 .192 .300 .192 .492 July 45 .282 .356 .359 .715 August 105 .429 .457 .469 .927 Sept/Oct 57 .235 .316 .275 .590
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/26/2017.
Somehow the Dodgers were able to trade Sizemore for Dick Allen in the winter of 1970. What a heist.
Nobody did it in Sept/Oct.
Turner has a hard task ahead of him over the next six games left in April. He can’t hit a home run but he has to hit to keep the OPS over .900.
Can he do it? Probably not. He’ll probably blast three home runs including one tonight making all this moot. But it was fun to research.
Dodger leaderboards to watch in 2017
Based on the starts of several LAD here are some LAD leaderboards to keep an eye on.
Justin Turner has nine doubles, twenty-five hits, five HBP, and zero home runs while carrying a .900 OPS after eighty plate appearances.
Let’s take a look at the LAD historical Double leaderboard. Turner would extrapolate out to about 72 doubles. He’ll probably end with 42.
Player 2B Year SLG OPS Pos Shawn Green 49 2003 .460 .814 *9/DH Wes Parker 47 1970 .458 .850 *3 Shawn Green 44 2000 .472 .839 *9/H8 Steve Sax 43 1986 .441 .830 *4/H Andre Ethier 42 2009 .508 .869 *9/H Raul Mondesi 42 1997 .541 .901 *9/H Adrian Gonzalez 41 2014 .482 .817 *3/HD James Loney 41 2010 .395 .723 *3/H Eric Karros 40 1999 .550 .912 *3/H Corey Seager 40 2016 .512 .877 *6/H Raul Mondesi 40 1996 .495 .830 *9
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/26/2017.
Next up are HBP. With five already in his hip pocket, that would extrapolate out to about forty HBP which as Joe Davis has noted several times would crush the current LAD record of eighteen by Alex Cora.
Player HBP Year Age PA OPS Pos Alex Cora 18 2004 28 484 .745 *4/H Lou Johnson 16 1965 30 518 .706 *78/H9 Mike Kinkade 16 2003 30 191 .687 H73/95D Lou Johnson 14 1966 31 572 .731 *79/H8 Andre Ethier 13 2009 27 685 .869 *9/H Justin Turner 13 2015 30 439 .861 *5H3/46 Yasiel Puig 12 2014 23 640 .863 *98/HD Yasiel Puig 11 2013 22 432 .925 *98/H7 Chase Utley 11 2016 37 565 .716 *4H/5 Devon White 11 1999 36 526 .744 *8/HD Mark Grudzielanek 11 2001 31 586 .711 *4 Russell Martin 11 2009 26 588 .680 *2/HD5 Justin Turner 10 2016 31 622 .832 *5H/D3 Paul Lo Duca 10 2002 30 632 .731 *23/7H Paul Lo Duca 10 2003 31 630 .712 *23/7H Mark Grudzielanek 10 1999 29 534 .812 *6/H Mark Ellis 10 2013 36 480 .674 *4H/5 Jolbert Cabrera 10 2003 30 380 .770 487H/6359 Alex Cora 10 2003 27 514 .625 *46/H Ron Hunt 10 1967 26 442 .689 *4H/5
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/26/2017.
The shock to me is that Ron Hunt only had 10 HBP in 1967. I remember Ron Hunt for only two things:
- Hunt was acquired by the Dodgers for local hero Tommy Davis in the winter of 1966.
- Ron Hunt was famous for being HBP. He lead the league seven times in being HBP but his one lone LAD season he was hit only ten times. That was the lowest amount of times he was hit in any season he accumulated over 300 plate appearances. Any one of six seasons, Ron Hunt could be the LAD leader in HBP but for some reason in 1967 he didn’t do the one thing he was famous for.
The Dodgers have been hit a lot lately. Look at the names on the top 20 list. Puig twice, Justin Turner twice, and Chase Utley. Heck at this rate Justin Turner is probably in the all-time top ten for getting HBP as a LAD. Let’s find out: He’s 13th at 32 but has a good chance to jump to 4th by the end of his season. The record is 58 by Andre Ethier. Good bet that Justin Turner will eclipse that by the time his LAD career is over if he stays for the length of his contract.
Edwin Rios is blowing up
Edwin Rios kind of took the scouts by surprise last year when he slugged twenty-seven home runs between three levels. His 110 strikeouts in only 418 at-bats gave his critics plenty to find fault in his game. Plus the 3rd baseman didn’t seem likely to stay at the position so you wouldn’t have found Rios on any top 100 prospect lists.
This year, Rios isn’t hitting as many home runs, but his game has become more well-rounded. Headed into the last week of April Rios is in the top ten of multiple offensive Texas League leaderboards. Here is a look:
- He leads the league in Batting Average at .386
- He’s second in the league in Slug at .614
- He’s third in the league in OPS at 1.017
- He’s tied for the league lead in doubles with 7
- He’s third in the league in RBI at 15
- He leads the league in hits with 27
- Advanced stats his ISO is .227, his wOBA is .430, his wRC+ is 166
He has also cut his k rate to 20.6%. The downside is his ridiculously BABIP of .430 and a miniscule walk rate of 3%. So yeah, regression is in order. But still some great work by an under the radar prospect who might not be under the radar for much longer.
The LAD just got way younger, did they get better?
With 21-year-old LAD 2017 top prospect Cody Bellinger joining the Dodgers today and 20-year-old 2016 top prospect Julio Urias set to join the team on Thursday the LAD 25-man roster just got a whole lot younger.
But will it make them better?
Joe Davis said tonight that Dave Roberts said Urias is here to stay so we can book him into the rotation. I’m not even sure who he’s replacing. Alex Wood is pitching tomorrow night and Urias Thursday night. You could say Urias is replacing Alex Wood but Alex Wood had replaced Rich Hill. So when Rich Hill comes off the DL to pitch another abbreviated game before the blister forms again, who goes?
Won’t be Kershaw
Won’t be McCarthy
Won’t be Urias
That leaves Ryu or Kenta. Both have struggled so whoever Urias actually replaces it should be better for the Dodgers. Urias has the stuff to be the second best pitcher on this team. Right now.
Bellinger is basically replacing Joc Pederson on the roster until Pederson comes off the DL. Toles will move to CF against RHP and Bellinger will play LF. Against LHP it looks like Hernandez will play CF and Bellinger will play LF. This would make Bellinger a full-time starter, unlike the player he replaced on the roster. In time Bellinger might be better than Joc Pederson but is the young Bellinger better? Probably not. But……….. it is very possible that when Joc returns it will be Toles that is replaced by Bellinger. The odds are higher that young Bellinger can be better than Toles right now.
Baseball America gives a little snapshot on what to expect from Cody Bellinger:
WHAT TO EXPECT
Bellinger will face a learning curve like most players getting their first taste of the majors, but if he can maintain his plate discipline he has a chance to provide a high on-base percentage and a few tape-measure home runs. Defensively there might be some misadventures in the outfield due to inexperience, but it also wouldn’t surprise if Bellinger shows he can hold his own. If Bellinger can adjust quickly and tap into his big power, he might just seize the Dodgers left field job for good and remain in the majors even after everyone gets healthy.
Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/what-to-expect-cody-bellinger-los-angeles-dodgers/#oeC815xXobmti58B.99
So yeah, the team is getting younger and probably better. Which is amazing when you are talking about a 21 and 20-year-old duo.
The pipeline started with Joc Pederson, last year saw Seager, Stewart, and Urias. This year we have Bellinger, and Verdugo thinks he should be considered in the near future. Eventually somebody in the Terrific Trio of Buehler/Alvarez/White will blow their way into Dodger Stadium.
This isn’t some 8-inch pipeline, this is the Alaskan pipeline on PED’s.
Masterson masterful
I’m not normally going to do a daily minor league recap but yesterday had so much going on I felt the need to write about it.
One time successful major league pitcher Justin Masterson was signed to a minor league deal to provide rotational depth at AAA and so far he’s looked good. Last night he was brilliant. While searching www.milb.com for his game I came across this little tidbit from his major league debut in 2008:
Justin Masterson, RHP, Boston Red Sox
A slew of injuries and illness may have slowed the Boston Red Sox’s starting pitchers, but they also accelerated the arrival — temporary for now — of the organization’s top Minor League arm. Right-hander Justin Masterson was summoned from Double-A Portland on April 24 for an emergency start against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.The 2006 second-rounder from San Diego State had his contract purchased just hours before the game, a 7-5 loss in which he did not factor in the decision. He tossed six innings of two-hit ball, allowing one run and walking four while striking out four. He got 11 groundball outs on his super sinker — his primary out pitch.
The converted catcher might not have been a Red Sox had the rumored offseason trade for Johan Santana gone through. He was considered one of the key players in that package.
Armed with that sinker and a plus slider, he had posted a 15-9 record and 3.74 ERA in a season and a half prior to 2008
Ha ha, a converted catcher.
“It’s just nice to be able to go out there and have consistency, to actually have an idea of where the ball is going and to be able to repeat that,” said the right-hander, who’s won 64 games in the Major Leagues. “I’m grateful to be in that spot right now, and hopefully it continues. You never know as things continue to go, but I’m thankful. I feel good.”
Masterson is only four years removed from being a 2013 All-Star with the Indians.
Masterson was a 2013 All-Star with Cleveland, going 14-10 with a 3.45 ERA and three shutouts before being derailed by injuries. He tore his oblique at the end of that season and battled various shoulder ailments over the next two years. He signed with the Red Sox in 2015 — “even with a shoulder that wasn’t the best” — and put up a 5.61 ERA in 18 outings.
But Masterson did not have the best game yesterday. That game belongs to Edwin Rios who went five for five. Rios tinkered with his swing after two games of struggling and the result was his best game as a pro.
“That last two games didn’t go too well for me and I just kind of tried to stay close and go to the left side and basically use the whole field,” Rios said. “That’s what I did today and that helped me a ton. I know when I’m going bad, I just try to work the left side and everything will just sync back up.”
I’ve heard that Rios has lost some weight and looks better at 3rd base. That would increase his value if the slugger could remain at 3rd base. Rios now has a .972 OPS for the season and is hitting over .400 over his last ten games.
And one more tidbit. A few days ago after Chase De Jong pitched well for the Mariners I wondered if the Dodgers had made a mistake in trading De Jong for Drew Jackson. No sooner had I uttered those words than Drew Jackson went on a mini tear hitting home runs in three straight games. This is notable because Jackson is mostly known for his game-changing speed. Has the power been a conscious change?
“It’s finding his authentic swing. He’s done a lot of work since coming over from Seattle to get going in a positive direction,” Class A Advanced Rancho Cucamonga manager Drew Saylor said. “It’s getting his swing on plane, finding ways to get his bat in the contact zone longer, and we’re seeing a nice little sample size of that over the last couple games. It’s more just a product of the work he’s been putting in.”
Drew now has an OPS of .982 with a nice blend of speed and power. AA should be in his cards soon as he is repeated A+ ball. This would open up SS for Brendon Davis at Rancho.
Staring up at the Rockies
may look daunting but with the right equipment and the right personnel they can be climbed and conquered. Remember the Rockies love April. August not so much.
- 2014 – On May 7th they were 22 – 14 and in first place. That would be the last time they were in 1st place
- 2015 they were 10 – 7 on April 24th. In 2016 they were 8 – 5 on April 18th.
- 2016 they were 8 – 5 on April 18th.
Eric Stephen pointed out that the LAD have only made the postseason three times after a 9 – 11 start or worse.
In case you were wondering, Dodgers have only made postseason 3 times after a start of 9-11 or worse:
1996 (8-12)
2008 (8-12)
2013 (9-11)— Eric Stephen (@truebluela) April 25, 2017
2017 will probably be the fourth time. I made need to eat these words come Oct but I have a hard time seeing a Rockie team leading from beginning to end with two rookies in the rotation. They are using Greg Holland hard for a guy who is pitching for the first time after TJ surgery. Yes, they have reinforcements coming, in Ian Desmond and David Dahl but Mark Reynolds has been tearing it up waiting for Desmond, and Parra has probably produced as much as Dahl will. The Rockies are a great offensive team built around a very shaky rotation. If they can pull off a postseason appearance with that rotation I’ll give them mucho credit.
It is only five games back, I’d say things were a hell of a lot bleaker last summer when Kershaw went down and they were staring up at a huge Giant lead. Remember how fast that lead evaporated.
Ryu looked great last night albeit it against a struggling Giant offense. At some point, Adrian Gonzalez simply has to start getting big hits.
I know Puig has had a tough row the last seven games but that includes three at the wall outs, several blistered double play shots. So I’m not worried. Yet. And that throw…….
Yasiel Puig nailed Brandon Belt at the plate with a laser throw and no, you still shouldn’t test his arm https://t.co/LtxeK7OLwD via @Cut4
— Phil Gurnee (@meercatjohn) April 25, 2017
Giant preview 4/24/17
Rarely over the past decade have the Dodgers faced a last place Giant team. I’ll let someone else figure out when was the last time but I know it has been a while.
At 6 – 13 the Giant are now 43 – 57 since June 30th, 2016. At that point, the Giants were 50 – 31. What has changed for such a dramatic reversal of fortune?
I haven’t a clue as I start to write this, maybe we will find out in a few paragraphs.
The Giants were abysmal last year after the All-Star Break, and if you had hope that the beginning of this year would be different, boy is your face red! The 2016 Giants had a .417 winning percentage in the second half, while so far in 2017, the team is winning at a .357 clip. And while the second half 2016 Giants looked like garbage, so far, the 2017 Giants look like stupid garbage.
The key to a great metaphor is an extensive vocabulary, by the way.
Doug threw all the advanced metrics at the 2017 team and they back up the record. He found some optimism on the pitching side but that was before MadBum went for a dirt bike ride. The man has three gigantic rings that must weigh a ton and I imagine he didn’t adjust his weight properly because of the rings and thus took a fall that may have ended the Giants season. Sure the Dodgers ran down the Giants without Kershaw, but don’t expect the Giants to pull the same rabbit out of the hat. That rabbit was already BBQ.
So with that out of the way who do the Giants have.
Posey / Belt / Panik / Crawford/ Pence/Span are all back and somewhat healthy. Eduardo Nunez was the trade addition last fall who hit well and is hitting well now. But the team keeps losing. He came from a losing team in the Twins. Guess who is winning now? The Twins.
It is clearly Eduardo Nunez that is holding the Giants down.
How is that for sabermetric analysis?
Anyway, the Dodgers will be facing Matt Cain, left-hander Ty Blach, Johnny Cueto, and another lefty in Matt Moore. They will send three left-handers against the Giants in Ryu/Kershaw/Wood or Urias. Or maybe four if Wood and Urias make the final two starts. If you want to glean anything from the Giant splits you will be disappointed. They have a .658 OPS against right-hand pitching and a .654 OPS against left-hand pitching. So far in 2017, they have sucked against either arm.
The matchup is also not kind for the Giants. They throw two lefties at the Dodgers and they might be facing Cy Current in Kershaw and Cy Future in Urias.
The Ryu / Cain matchup should decide who wins the series. Odds were high in January that neither Ryu or Cain would be in a Dodger / Giant rotation by April 24th but they are. I kind of think that Ryu is due for a good solid outing and that Cain is due to get Able’d.
It should not be long before the Giants replace the Padres and climb out of last place, but will that be as far as they climb in 2017?
MLB Weekly Notes 4/23/17
The Rockies swept the Giants and are now 13 – 6 to top the NL West. Conversely, the Giants are 6 – 13 and sit at the bottom of the NL West. The Rockies didn’t just sweep the Giants they shut them down. The Giants were shut out on Sunday and scored only eight runs in the three-game series. The Giants can’t offer any excuses as that is the full contingent of their offensive team. The Rockies did it with fantastic work from their two rookies Antonio Senzatela and Kyle Freeland. Neither of them can strike out anyone but for now, they are keeping runs off the board.
Four players hit four home runs last week but one of them is probably not a name you’d expect to see. Freddie Freeman, Giancarlo Stanton, Joey Gallo, and……………….Austin Hedges. Back in 2015 Hedges hit three home runs in 152 PA en route to a .248 slug%. He didn’t get much burn in 2016 as they decided he needed another full year at AAA. That must have worked because in 2017 Hedges has five home runs in only 62 PA with a .472 slugging percentage.
The Dodgers were will aware of the exploits of David Peralta and AJ Pollock. They led the league in hits last week with fourteen a piece.
Dan Straily struck out fourteen Padres this past weekend. The most Straily had ever struck out before was eleven. He did that twice.
Will Smith heats up
and wins the LAD Farm Factory Award for the week. Smith hit in every game this week, collecting eleven hits, three home runs, five walks, and stole three bases. For the season Smith now has a robust .333 / .421 / .625 triple stat line. Baseball America prospect report pointed out something I had missed. Smith played 2nd base base the past two games.
Will Smith, 2b, Dodgers. The Dodgers drafted Kyle Funkhouser in 2015 and didn’t sign him, but then drafted Funkhouser’s college catcher in 2016. Los Angeles likes Smith’s athleticism so much they’ve tried him at other positions despite his catching prowess, and he’s played second base the past two games. On Sunday, he cracked two homers—his first multi-homer game as a pro—in Rancho’s win over Thaiss and Inland Empire. Smith isn’t known for his power, but does have enough power to his pull side to pop 8-12 a year.
Craig Minami added some flavor to the use of Smith around the diamond.
“Being able to be flexible, bouncing around, playing third a little bit, playing second base, playing catcher,” said Quakes manager Drew Saylor, “I think that helps him.”
“I think he has just been doing a very, very good job, offensively, obviously putting up really good at bats,” said Saylor, “not only just hitting, he’s also taking his walks too, which is a very special thing to see.”
This week had a few interesting tidbits:
Top pitching prospect Yadier Alvarez made his anticipated 2017 debut. The debut wasn’t very good but he did better his second start though not something you’d expect from your top pitching prospect. For the week he pitched six innings, gave up thirteen hits, and nine runs. Craig Minami had the report on Alvarez’s second start.
On Saturday night, he struck out the side once and five of six batters in the second and third innings. He was sitting 96-97 mph in the first two innings and 94 mph in the fourth inning. He also showed some impressive off-speed pitches.
2016 number one draft pick Gavin Lux also made his 2017 debut with the Great Lake Loons. Lux played second three games and shortstop one game.
Julio Urias is no longer a prospect but he is toiling in AAA getting ready to join the Dodger rotation. His last start was his best start and he now looks ready. I’m not sure how many innings they saved his arm but I’m sure the 30 LAD analysts have it all figured out so that he can pitch meaningful innings in October, just as they had it all figured out last year.
Eighteen-year-old Keibert Ruiz may be starting to figure things out. He came into the week with only four hits and two walks, he ended the week hitting in five of the six games and collected his first multi-hit game tonight.
Not figuring it out so far has been Eighteen-year-old ONeil Cruz who is finding the challenge of mainland ball, challenging. Cruz has only six hits in almost 60 at-bats. Even worse he’s made nine errors in fifteen games while playing 3rd base. That sounds like he’s making an error on every third play. How many 3rd basemen had double digit errors before May showed up? I’m betting not many. He seems like a good bet to head to the rookie leagues when they open up after the June draft.
Staying with the Loons, Carlos Rincon is tied for first in home runs with six for the Midwest League. Carlos is slowing down as he only hit one home run this week and struck out multiple times, including four, three, and two times in a game.
Cuban import and 2nd baseman Jose Miguel Fernandez has a five-game hitting streak that included two home runs.
Ibandel Isabel hit two home runs and leads the California League with five home runs. That is about all that Isabel is doing. He has struck out 25 times in 54 at-bats.
Walker Buehler threw three more scoreless innings. He’s now made three starts, pitched nine total innings, given up only four hits, zero earned runs, one walk, and fifteen punchouts.
Justin Turner closing in on LAD double record for April/March
With nine doubles already on the books, Justin Turner has a good shot to match the most doubles ever hit in the April/March time frame by a LAD.
Player Split Year 2B PA OPS Rafael Furcal April/March 2008 12 130 1.063 Hanley Ramirez April/March 2014 11 110 .834 Cesar Izturis April/March 2002 10 107 .708 Shawn Green April/March 2003 10 127 .794 Andre Ethier April/March 2011 10 121 1.002 Shawn Green April/March 2000 9 111 .944 Paul Lo Duca April/March 2002 9 96 .779 Adrian Gonzalez April/March 2014 9 114 1.021 Adrian Gonzalez April/March 2015 9 88 1.222 Justin Turner April/March 2017 9 67 .965
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/23/2017.
Based on the table above, I guess the LAD simply didn’t many doubles in April/May until the 21st century. Digging deeper I found eight LAD hit eight doubles before the 21st century. Who knew that nine was the dividing line. The first LAD to hit ten doubles in a month was Cesar Izturis. Shawn Green hit nine doubles in 2000 and ten doubles in 2003.
Who can forget the blazing start to the 2008 season by Rafy Furcal?
Dodgers, Yesterday and Today 