National media taking notice of Dodgers

♦ July 18, 2017 ♦ 1 Comment

This morning the Washington Post posted an article about how the Los Angeles Dodgers are making a mockery of the National League.  It was a well-written story with some key points.

 The nature of baseball prevents teams from winning nearly 80 percent of their games. But that’s what the Dodgers have done for nearly a third of a season. They’re the best team in baseball, and possibly redefining the ceiling of what that means.

Most of the story focuses on points that Dodger writers have known for several years. The key to the Dodger success is depth depth depth.

You lose your bread and butter 1st baseman – no problem we will upgrade to the younger, faster, stronger version.

You lost your 2nd baseman – no problem, we will simply insert the best 2nd basemen of his generation and let him work his magic for a month

You lose your starting left fielder – no problem, we will take this super utility player and make him one of the most productive starting left fielders in the National League

Your free agent pitcher can’t stay on the mound – no problem, we will simply insert the lefty originally destined for the bullpen and watch him become the best pitcher in the NL for a few months while the free agent figures it out and comes back strong

You have too many options for your rotation – no problem,  we will simply manipulate the new 10-Day DL and find a way to make everyone happy/productive/rested

You lose your prodigy prospect for the year – no problem, we have that depth thing happening in the rotation

Basically, whatever baseball throws at the Dodgers, it is no problema.

 

Keibert and Santana show

♦ July 17, 2017 ♦ 2 Comments

In a game I should have gone to considering two of my favorite prospects were playing, Dennis Santana hurled another seven innings, while Keibert Ruiz blasted a three run walk off home run in front of the unimpressed Craig Minami.

Dennis Santana pitched seven innings again, marking the fourth time Santana has gone at least seven innings this year. Considering he’s a converted relief pitcher, his ability to go deep into games is one of the more surprising things about his season. Santana is basically the same age as Yadier Alvarez and Yadier has managed to go six innings just once this year. Yadier’s typical outing is five innings.

The legend of Keibert Ruiz got some ammunition tonight.  Expect that hoard to grow.

Craig Minami covered the game for TrueBlueLA last night and got some quotes from the Rancho manager on both Keibert and Santana.

“[Santana is] the guy, that we feel that every time he takes the mound, that if we score just a few runs, it’s going to be a win. He’s a stalwart in there, he’s just tremendous,” Saylor told Minami “As he’s grown this year, from day one to now, I think it is really exciting to see all our guys just develop and give us great outings and opportunities.”

“How quiet he is, his poise, his professionalism, even just the maturity, you have to literally do a double take at the roster to make sure he is 18 years old,” Saylor said of Rui

Can the Dodgers win 110 games?

♦ July 17, 2017 ♦ 3 Comments

A few days ago I showed how weak the Dodger 2nd half schedule was and Dan Szymborski chimed in today also showing how weak the Dodger second half schedule is. According to Dan, the Dodger 2nd half opponents have just a .476 winning percentage based on their win/losses as he wrote the article.

The Dodger record right now is 64  – 29, which is a .688 winning percentage.  They have 69 games left.

  • If they play one game over .500 at 35 – 34 they end up 99 – 63
  • If they play five games over .500 at 37 – 32 they end up 101 – 61
  • If they play eleven games over .500 at 40 – 29 they end up 104 – 58
  • If they play fifteen games over .500 at 42 – 27 they end up 106 – 56
  • If they play twenty-three games over .500 at 46 – 23 they end up 110 – 62

Basically, if the Dodgers can win twice as many games as they lose over the next 69 games they can win 110 games. Is an 110 win season realistic? I think it is for the following reasons.

  • The team is loaded and while they won’t go 29 – 4 again, it isn’t hard to see this team continuing to play at a high level for the rest of the year. They haven’t made any trades yet to upgrade the team. They still have Adrian Gonzalez in reserve in case either Bellinger or Taylor hit a wall. I don’t even think Cory Seager or Puig have hit their peaks this year yet.
  • The NL is very weak this year.  I think we have already seen major stumbles by the Rockies and Diamondbacks.  The Brewers lead the NL Central with a rotation of pitchers who couldn’t make the Dodgers eight man rotation except for Jimmy Nelson.
  • Depth Depth Depth- everywhere

Just for fun, I finished out the season with what I thought was a possible scenario. My best guess came up with 108 wins.  Do 110 wins compared to 108 wins mean anything? Nope, nothing at all. That is what we do here. Nothing at all.

Game# Date Where Team Possible Result Wins Losses
93 Sunday, July 16th @ Miami Win 64 29
94 Tuesday, Jul 18 @ CHW Win 65 29
95 Wednesday, Jul 19 @ CHW Lose 65 30
96 Thursday, Jul 20 ATL Lose 65 31
97 Friday, Jul 21 ATL Win 66 31
98 Saturday, Jul 22 ATL Win 67 31
99 Sunday, Jul 23 ATL Win 68 31
100 Monday, Jul 24 MIN Win 69 31
101 Tuesday, Jul 25 MIN Lose 69 32
102 Wednesday, Jul 26 MIN Win 70 32
103 Friday, Jul 28 SFG Win 71 32
104 Saturday, Jul 29 SFG Lose 71 33
105 Sunday, Jul 30 SFG Win 72 33
106 Tuesday, Aug 1 @ ATL Lose 72 34
107 Wednesday, Aug 2 @ ATL Win 73 34
108 Thursday, Aug 3 @ ATL Win 74 34
109 Friday, Aug 4 @ NYM Lose 74 35
110 Saturday, Aug 5 @ NYM Win 75 35
111 Sunday, Aug 6 @ NYM Win 76 35
112 Tuesday, Aug 8 @ ARI Lose 76 36
113 Wednesday, Aug 9 @ ARI Lose 76 37
114 Thursday, Aug 10 @ ARI Win 77 37
115 Friday, Aug 11 SDP Lose 77 38
116 Saturday, Aug 12 SDP Win 78 38
117 Sunday, Aug 13 SDP Win 79 38
118 Tuesday, Aug 15 CHW Win 80 38
119 Wednesday, Aug 16 CHW Win 81 38
120 Friday, Aug 18 @ DET Lose 81 39
121 Saturday, Aug 19 @ DET Win 82 39
122 Sunday, Aug 20 @ DET Win 83 39
123 Monday, Aug 21 @ PIT Lose 83 40
124 Tuesday, Aug 22 @ PIT Win 84 40
125 Wednesday, Aug 23 @ PIT Win 85 40
126 Thursday, Aug 24 @ PIT Lose 85 41
127 Friday, Aug 25 MIL Lose 85 42
128 Saturday, Aug 26 MIL Win 86 42
129 Sunday, Aug 27 MIL Win 87 42
130 Tuesday, Aug 29 @ ARI Win 88 42
131 Wednesday, Aug 30 @ ARI Win 89 42
132 Thursday, Aug 31 @ ARI Lose 89 43
133 Friday, Sep 1 @ SDP Lose 89 44
134 Saturday, Sep 2 @ SDP Win 90 44
135 Saturday, Sep 2 @ SDP Lose 90 45
136 Sunday, Sep 3 @ SDP Win 91 45
137 Monday, Sep 4 ARI Win 92 45
138 Tuesday, Sep 5 ARI Lose 92 46
139 Wednesday, Sep 6 ARI Win 93 46
140 Thursday, Sep 7 COL Win 94 46
141 Friday, Sep 8 COL Win 95 46
142 Saturday, Sep 9 COL Lose 95 47
143 Sunday, Sep 10 COL Win 96 47
144 Monday, Sep 11 @ SFG Lose 96 48
145 Tuesday, Sep 12 @ SFG Win 97 48
146 Wednesday, Sep 13 @ SFG Win 98 48
147 Friday, Sep 15 @ WSN Lose 98 49
148 Saturday, Sep 16 @ WSN Lose 98 50
149 Sunday, Sep 17 @ WSN Win 99 50
150 Monday, Sep 18 @ PHI Win 100 50
151 Tuesday, Sep 19 @ PHI Win 101 50
152 Wednesday, Sep 20 @ PHI Win 102 50
153 Thursday, Sep 21 @ PHI Lose 102 51
154 Friday, Sep 22 SFG Lose 102 52
155 Saturday, Sep 23 SFG Win 103 52
156 Sunday, Sep 24 SFG Win 104 52
157 Monday, Sep 25 SDP Win 105 52
158 Tuesday, Sep 26 SDP Win 106 52
159 Wednesday, Sep 27 SDP Lose 106 53
160 Friday, Sep 29 @ COL Lose 106 54
161 Saturday, Sep 30 @ COL Win 107 54
162 Sunday, Oct 1 @ COL Win 108 54

FFA Week of July 9th – July 16th

♦ July 17, 2017 ♦ 1 Comment

The contenders:

Wilmer Font – started in the PCL AAA All-Star game on Wednesday and threw one scoreless inning. Followed that up with six innings, three hits, one earned run, zero walks, and eight strikeouts on Sunday.  Font continues to excel at AAA as he waits to see if his production will turn into a major league turn.

Errol Robinson – The speedy 2nd/SS collected nine hits in his last five games, including four stolen bases.  All of his hits were singles but with four stolen bases you could say some were doubles:). Errol has spent time on three teams this year running up the ladder from A- to A+ to AA. He showed some power with Rancho but has yet to have an extra base hit for Tulsa (AA).  Overall Errol has 15 stolen bases with four caught stealing in just 53 games.

Jose Miguel Fernandez  – Jose had nine hits in his last four games, including two three hit games. The 2nd baseman has been playing 1st and 3rd as he tries to show off his versatility because his only ticket to the majors is probably as a utility player.

Josh Sborz – Sborz made two starts last week giving up only one earned run combined. Overall he went 13 2/3 innings, gave up just six hits, one earned run, walked five and struck out eight.  Since giving up six runs on June 8th, Sborz has made six straight quality starts, not giving up more than two earned runs in any of those six games.  That is the good news, the bad news is that his KK/BB ratio is horrible over those six games.

Andrew Sopko – Sopko continued his fine work in June/July with a seven inning gem. Sopko threw seven innings, gave up six hits, two earned runs, zero walks, and four strikeouts.  He has only given up six earned runs over his last five starts, but just like Sborz has a problem getting strikeouts, and walks too many hitters for such a low punchout rate.

Keibert Ruiz – Keibert spent his first week with Rancho showing why he’s the best position prospect in the Dodger system. The 18-year-old switch hitting catcher played in five games, collected seven hits, two walks, including his first home run in Rancho. His line so far in A+ ball is .368 / .429 / .737 with an OPS of 1.165.  Did I mention he is 18-years- old playing in A Plus ball. This will be the last time because he turns 19 this week.

Dennis Santana – Dennis went eight innings, gave up seven hits, two earned runs, one walk, and had six strikeouts. You don’t see many pitchers below AAA going eight innings and it was the first time for Santana. I’m pretty sure it was the first time for any Rancho pitcher.

Ibandel Isabel – Izzy hit three home runs last week to take the league lead away from teammate DJ Peters. Isabel now has 20 home runs. He also had nine hits and if he didn’t have eight K’s to one walk he’d get more play.

Caleb Ferguson – Fergy continued his strong July run with two good starts last week. He combined to throw 11 innings, gave up only five hits, three earned runs, four walks, and eighteen strikeouts. Caleb hasn’t given up more than two earned runs since June 1st a span of nine starts.

And the winner is……..

Caleb Ferguson who wins the Weekly Farm Factory Award for the Week of July 9th – July 16th.

I really wanted to give it to Keibert Ruiz but I’ll be writing more about him and this was the first time that Caleb was in the running, and he has been on a nice run.

Top Prospects have been on the move:

  • Keibert Ruiz was promoted from Great Lakes to Rancho
  • Walker Buehler was promoted from Tulsa (AA) to Oklahoma (AAA).  Will be interesting to see what the Dodgers do with Walker. Will they start using him in relief in over the final six weeks of the minor league system to get him ready for a possible call up to the Dodger bullpen?
  • Edwin Rios was promoted from Tulsa (AA) to Oklahoma (AAA). Rios has been playing the outfield and 1st base for Oklahoma but no games at 3rd base since his promotion.

One final note, I did not include Starling Heredia in the running for FFA Player of the Week because he is playing in a Rookie league. Just so you know,  the 18-year-old Starling is knocking the crap out of the Pioneer League.  He had three, three hit games, and two, two hit games last week. Plus three home runs. Plus five walks.

 

 

 

 

 

Bellinger leads the Marlin Total Base Leaderboard

♦ July 16, 2017 ♦ Leave a comment

Cody Bellinger not only hit for the cycle on Saturday night he put up the greatest offensive night against the Marlins by a Dodger in Miami.

Player                 Date  Tm Opp  Rslt PA H 2B 3B HR TB RBI
Cody Bellinger   2017-07-15 LAD MIA W 7-1  5 4  1  1  1 10   3
Raul Mondesi     1995-04-25 LAD FLA W 8-7  5 3  1  0  2 10   4

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/16/2017.

The last Dodger to have at least ten total bases against the Marlins in Miami was Raul Mondesi way back in 1995. Twenty-Two years ago.

 

 

Saturday – Saturday for Cody Bellinger

♦ July 15, 2017 ♦ Leave a comment

Cody Bellinger woke up last Saturday in a slump, his OPS had dropped from a high of 1.021 on June 25th to .948 on Saturday Morning. He hadn’t hit a home run since June 25th.   Had the league figured him out? Was he worn out from all the media coverage of his crazy start to this career?

Saturday, July 8th – Cody Bellinger is highlighted on the Fox Saturday Game of the week and while they talk of his slump he proceeds to blast his first home run since June 25th. He also hit a double and walked twice getting on base all four times.  It was only the second time in his brief career he had gotten on base four times in a game.

Sunday, July 9th – a quiet day for Cody as he goes hitless getting ready for his all-star week.

Monday, July 10th – Home run derby day, Cody advances past the first round but loses to the Judge in the second round. Still a very good showing by the kid.

Tuesday,  July 11th – Plays in what is surely the first of many all-star games

Wed-Thurs – I’m assuming he got laid a lot

Friday,  July 14th – meh, one single, but he went with the pitch

Saturday,  July 15th – single, home run , double, triple and the game is still going on.

Last year Justin Turner and Grandal hit 27 home runs to lead the team. Cody has 26 right now.  On July 15th.

Of course he did

♦ July 15, 2017 ♦ Leave a comment

Joe Davis called it right “Of course he did” as Cody Bellinger added to his legendary season by hitting for the cycle in Miami tonight, and he did it the hard way, hitting a triple to complete the cycle.

I’m extremely pleased because he replaces Orlando Hudson as the last Dodger to hit for the cycle and while I have nothing against Hudson I don’t particularly like one year free agents holding Dodger records.

I enjoyed Wes Parker having the only cycle since 1970 until Hudson performed the feat in 2009 and have been waiting eight years for someone else to do the trick.

And of course, it was Cody Bellinger, the fastest Dodger on the team, who also happens to have the most power. A combination you just don’t find often, so it is a good bet that this will not be his last cycle. Considering the season he is having, he could do it again this year.

Cody could be fighting Puig for NL player of the week.

Joe Davis keeps giving us some nice cycle tidbits. Wes Parker was the first LAD to hit for the cyle and he did it against the Mets in 1970. The manager for the Mets was Gil Hodges who was the last Brooklyn Dodger to hit for the cycle.

 

Oh, come on

♦ July 15, 2017 ♦ 3 Comments

At some point, the Dodgers had to lose so this game seemed as good as any for that weird streak of having won 39 straight games that they once had a lead come to an end.

Top of the 9th, down by one run

Two out, two strikes, Joc Pederson slams a single into RF

Two out, two strikes, Grandal works a walk.

Two out, two strikes, Puig looking completely overmatched

Boom

What a season

What is Dee Gordon?

♦ July 14, 2017 ♦ 5 Comments

It has been 2 1/2 years since the Dee Gordon trade that had all sorts of moving parts. Over those three years, we have won the trade several times, lost the trade several times, and even now,  have to wonder just who is Dee Gordon?

Is he the batting champion of 2015?  His first year with the Marlins, Dee led the league in hits (204), batting average (.333), stolen bases (58), and caught stealing (20).  He also won the Silver Slugger award, and a Gold Glove to boot. Sure, he is that guy because he did it, but given his PED suspension will he do it again or come close. Maybe, he’s still all slash and dash and Matty Alou showed that a proper slash and dash can get a boatload of hits and run into a few .330 batting averages.   In July of 2017, Dee Gordon is all slash and dash going 14 for 38 with 3 stolen bases.

Is he the PED child of 2016? The following year Dee was busted for a PED violation and served an 80 day suspension. His production also cratered from his 2016 season, but his stolen base percentage improved dramatically with 30 stolen bases to only seven caught stealing. Yes, he is that guy, but he was one of the stranger PED cases given his game was slash and dash.

Is he worth the contract he signed in January of 2016 right after his break – out season? Maybe? Probably. He continues to steal bases at an elite leve with 32 more this year at the break while only being caught six times.  His defense is still above average according to Fangraphs. Using fWAR Gordon is the 8th best 2nd baseman in the baseball even with an OPS of only 90.

Is he the best base stealer in the baseball not named Billy Hamilton?

Easily

Player            SB From   To   PA CS
Billy Hamilton   222 2013 2017 1920 45
Dee Gordon       194 2013 2017 2130 54
Jose Altuve      177 2013 2017 3165 49
Rajai Davis      157 2013 2017 1964 35
Starling Marte   150 2013 2017 2332 50

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/14/2017.

Dee is also already one of the top 15 stolen base leaders for NL second baseman with at least 70% of games played at 2nd base. Based on the leaderboard below, good chance that Dee Gordon will be 2nd when his career ends. Look at all the Dodgers on this list. Davey Lopes, Eric Young, Delino DeShields, Juan Samuel, Steve Sax, and Dee Gordon.

Player              SB From   To   Age    PA  CS
Joe Morgan         681 1963 1983 19-39 10891 159
Davey Lopes        495 1972 1987 27-42  6016  98
Eric Young         451 1992 2006 25-39  6582 159
Frankie Frisch     419 1919 1937 21-39 10099  74
Delino DeShields   404 1990 2002 21-33  5413 128
Juan Samuel        352 1983 1993 22-32  5792 124
Ryne Sandberg      344 1981 1997 21-37  9282 107
Luis Castillo      336 1996 2010 20-34  6435 127
Johnny Evers       324 1902 1929 20-47  7207  26
Miller Huggins     324 1904 1916 26-38  6795  31
Larry Doyle        298 1907 1920 20-33  7380  41
Steve Sax          290 1981 1988 21-28  4745 126
George Cutshaw     258 1912 1921 25-34  5486  79
 Dee Gordon         250 2011 2017 23-29  2693  71
Bill Doran         208 1982 1992 24-34  5855  93
Brandon Phillips   201 2006 2017 25-36  7225  73
Quilvio Veras      183 1995 2001 24-30  3293  83
Tom Herr           178 1979 1991 23-35  5771  61
Dick Egan          167 1908 1916 24-32  3547  14
Rodney Scott       166 1976 1982 22-28  2021  42

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/14/2017.

So what is Dee Gordon? Dee Gordon is all those guys and a solid 2nd baseman who augments elite speed and defense to singles based offense. If he could have learned to take a walk his whole game might be considered elite but he’ll have to settle for being good. Good enough he’s being targeted by multiple teams as an acquisition to help bolster their postseason aspirations.

Midseason Prospect Rankings coming in

♦ July 13, 2017 ♦ 1 Comment

David Hood was the first with an update prospect list, and he published it this morning. MLB did their update last year around July 20th and that is when we will be looking for it this year.

I was pleased to see that David was aggressive on Keibert Ruiz and Dennis Santana the two prospects I’ve written about the most this summer.

I don’t agree with his extremely generous ranking of this years number one pick Jeren Kendall who has never played a professional game over the likes of Alex Verdugo and Keibert Ruiz.  David was higher on Kendall entering the draft as he felt he was a top five pick talent so that plays into his high ranking but I’d still stick with the prospects who have actually performed as professionals before putting draft picks above them.

I also think Lux has done nothing to warrant being listed above Brendon Davis who is not on his top 20.  I don’t  think I’d have either in a top 20 list with the emergence of Cristian Santana and Starling Heredia as the short summer seasons kicked into gear.

The only good news about Lux is that the player they could have drafted instead of Lux,  Delvin Perez has also struggled to find his game in 2017.  Struggled is kind, he can’t even hit rookie league pitching right now.

With Keibert Ruiz promoted this past week, the time of sleeping on him may have passed. Scouts are going to notice an 18-year-old catcher in the California League.