Can the Dodgers win 110 games?
A few days ago I showed how weak the Dodger 2nd half schedule was and Dan Szymborski chimed in today also showing how weak the Dodger second half schedule is. According to Dan, the Dodger 2nd half opponents have just a .476 winning percentage based on their win/losses as he wrote the article.
The Dodger record right now is 64 – 29, which is a .688 winning percentage. They have 69 games left.
- If they play one game over .500 at 35 – 34 they end up 99 – 63
- If they play five games over .500 at 37 – 32 they end up 101 – 61
- If they play eleven games over .500 at 40 – 29 they end up 104 – 58
- If they play fifteen games over .500 at 42 – 27 they end up 106 – 56
- If they play twenty-three games over .500 at 46 – 23 they end up 110 – 62
Basically, if the Dodgers can win twice as many games as they lose over the next 69 games they can win 110 games. Is an 110 win season realistic? I think it is for the following reasons.
- The team is loaded and while they won’t go 29 – 4 again, it isn’t hard to see this team continuing to play at a high level for the rest of the year. They haven’t made any trades yet to upgrade the team. They still have Adrian Gonzalez in reserve in case either Bellinger or Taylor hit a wall. I don’t even think Cory Seager or Puig have hit their peaks this year yet.
- The NL is very weak this year. I think we have already seen major stumbles by the Rockies and Diamondbacks. The Brewers lead the NL Central with a rotation of pitchers who couldn’t make the Dodgers eight man rotation except for Jimmy Nelson.
- Depth Depth Depth- everywhere
Just for fun, I finished out the season with what I thought was a possible scenario. My best guess came up with 108 wins. Do 110 wins compared to 108 wins mean anything? Nope, nothing at all. That is what we do here. Nothing at all.
|93||Sunday, July 16th||@||Miami||Win||64||29|
|94||Tuesday, Jul 18||@||CHW||Win||65||29|
|95||Wednesday, Jul 19||@||CHW||Lose||65||30|
|96||Thursday, Jul 20||ATL||Lose||65||31|
|97||Friday, Jul 21||ATL||Win||66||31|
|98||Saturday, Jul 22||ATL||Win||67||31|
|99||Sunday, Jul 23||ATL||Win||68||31|
|100||Monday, Jul 24||MIN||Win||69||31|
|101||Tuesday, Jul 25||MIN||Lose||69||32|
|102||Wednesday, Jul 26||MIN||Win||70||32|
|103||Friday, Jul 28||SFG||Win||71||32|
|104||Saturday, Jul 29||SFG||Lose||71||33|
|105||Sunday, Jul 30||SFG||Win||72||33|
|106||Tuesday, Aug 1||@||ATL||Lose||72||34|
|107||Wednesday, Aug 2||@||ATL||Win||73||34|
|108||Thursday, Aug 3||@||ATL||Win||74||34|
|109||Friday, Aug 4||@||NYM||Lose||74||35|
|110||Saturday, Aug 5||@||NYM||Win||75||35|
|111||Sunday, Aug 6||@||NYM||Win||76||35|
|112||Tuesday, Aug 8||@||ARI||Lose||76||36|
|113||Wednesday, Aug 9||@||ARI||Lose||76||37|
|114||Thursday, Aug 10||@||ARI||Win||77||37|
|115||Friday, Aug 11||SDP||Lose||77||38|
|116||Saturday, Aug 12||SDP||Win||78||38|
|117||Sunday, Aug 13||SDP||Win||79||38|
|118||Tuesday, Aug 15||CHW||Win||80||38|
|119||Wednesday, Aug 16||CHW||Win||81||38|
|120||Friday, Aug 18||@||DET||Lose||81||39|
|121||Saturday, Aug 19||@||DET||Win||82||39|
|122||Sunday, Aug 20||@||DET||Win||83||39|
|123||Monday, Aug 21||@||PIT||Lose||83||40|
|124||Tuesday, Aug 22||@||PIT||Win||84||40|
|125||Wednesday, Aug 23||@||PIT||Win||85||40|
|126||Thursday, Aug 24||@||PIT||Lose||85||41|
|127||Friday, Aug 25||MIL||Lose||85||42|
|128||Saturday, Aug 26||MIL||Win||86||42|
|129||Sunday, Aug 27||MIL||Win||87||42|
|130||Tuesday, Aug 29||@||ARI||Win||88||42|
|131||Wednesday, Aug 30||@||ARI||Win||89||42|
|132||Thursday, Aug 31||@||ARI||Lose||89||43|
|133||Friday, Sep 1||@||SDP||Lose||89||44|
|134||Saturday, Sep 2||@||SDP||Win||90||44|
|135||Saturday, Sep 2||@||SDP||Lose||90||45|
|136||Sunday, Sep 3||@||SDP||Win||91||45|
|137||Monday, Sep 4||ARI||Win||92||45|
|138||Tuesday, Sep 5||ARI||Lose||92||46|
|139||Wednesday, Sep 6||ARI||Win||93||46|
|140||Thursday, Sep 7||COL||Win||94||46|
|141||Friday, Sep 8||COL||Win||95||46|
|142||Saturday, Sep 9||COL||Lose||95||47|
|143||Sunday, Sep 10||COL||Win||96||47|
|144||Monday, Sep 11||@||SFG||Lose||96||48|
|145||Tuesday, Sep 12||@||SFG||Win||97||48|
|146||Wednesday, Sep 13||@||SFG||Win||98||48|
|147||Friday, Sep 15||@||WSN||Lose||98||49|
|148||Saturday, Sep 16||@||WSN||Lose||98||50|
|149||Sunday, Sep 17||@||WSN||Win||99||50|
|150||Monday, Sep 18||@||PHI||Win||100||50|
|151||Tuesday, Sep 19||@||PHI||Win||101||50|
|152||Wednesday, Sep 20||@||PHI||Win||102||50|
|153||Thursday, Sep 21||@||PHI||Lose||102||51|
|154||Friday, Sep 22||SFG||Lose||102||52|
|155||Saturday, Sep 23||SFG||Win||103||52|
|156||Sunday, Sep 24||SFG||Win||104||52|
|157||Monday, Sep 25||SDP||Win||105||52|
|158||Tuesday, Sep 26||SDP||Win||106||52|
|159||Wednesday, Sep 27||SDP||Lose||106||53|
|160||Friday, Sep 29||@||COL||Lose||106||54|
|161||Saturday, Sep 30||@||COL||Win||107||54|
|162||Sunday, Oct 1||@||COL||Win||108||54|
- Posted in: 2017 Dodgers ♦ Uncategorized
This reminds me of Maury Wills stolen base record in 1962.
The LA Times ran a story mid season wondering just how many bases
“The Mouse That Roared” could swipe.
Included in the story front and center on the top of front page of the sports section was a semi completed graph with the games on the horizontal and the stolen base total on the vertical.
I got a pair of scissors, cut the graph out of the paper and followed along dutifully filling in the little boxes stolen base by stolen base, day by day.
I think the graph only went up to 100 bases. I had to write outside the lines to keep going as the Wills took the line right through the ceiling.
I kept that little piece of paper for a few years.
This is great. I could have seen myself doing the same thing in 1962. How cool was it that he even exceeded their most optimistic projection.
It would be something if this team already had their only slump of the year back at the beginning. Probably getting a head of myself but I do think they have a legit shot at 110 wins. Will be fun to watch the wins accumulate.