Hello to Yu and goodbye to you
The Dodgers made the big splash at the last second to save what had been a very disappointing trade deadline day.
Until 12:59:05 Dodger fans were trying to reconcile with the idea that the biggest moves the Dodgers had made were to bring in Tony Cingrani and Tony Watson. All that changed when this tweet came through.
Source: Darvish to #Dodgers
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 31, 2017
Five minutes of mayhem followed as everyone threw their hat into the air. Now, what was the price?
Source: Dodgers send Calhoun, Alexy and Davis to Rangers for Yu Darvish. Deal done.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 31, 2017
Are you kidding me? Maybe I shouldn’t be so ecstatic about the price but I’d had a hard time figuring out what the Dodgers could do with Willie Calhoun and so I’d never really pegged him as a future Dodger. Willie could end up a great hitter but you’d be hard pressed to find a place for his bat in the NL. Tear Texas up Willie.
AJ Alexy is a nice pitcher and was the 18 ranked LAD prospect by MLB last week. He was not ranked by Baseball America entering the season. I’ve written about Brendon Davis a few times. He had a decent year for the Loons and was promoted to Rancho last week. Brendon had been dropped to the 28th LAD prospect by MLB.com.
It would seem the Rangers got a major league ready bat and two very young prospects who may or may not ever turn out to be anything.
The Dodgers got the best starting pitcher available. They got who I wanted. They got the guy who dominates the NL and is best suited to help them in October. They got the guy who should give the Dodgers a legitimate four man rotation in October. They got the right handed arm to slot between Kershaw and either Wood or Hill.
They got what they needed for the rotation.
What they didn’t get was a lock down left handed relief pitcher. In two minor deals they acquired left handed setup man in Tony Cingrani and Tony Watson. They both have warts, but Watson at one time was great, and Cingrani could be. The Dodgers wanted them so there must be a reason for it.
The price for Cingrani was Scott Van Slyke and Hendrik Clementina. We all know who Scott Van Slyke is and we lost his bat a long time ago. I had never heard of Clementina until last week when he made the Pioneer League all-star team. I wrote about him earlier today because he was in the running for last weeks Farm Factory Award. That seems like a good get for the Reds. Clementina was not on any top 30 LAD prospect list but I bet he was about to make them this coming winter.
The price for Tony Watson could be interesting. Angel German was one of them. I don’t much care about him. Oneil Cruz, however, is another story. He’s a young infielder for the Loons who grew to about 6’6 after he had been signed at 6’1. Now to tall to be a SS they were trying him at 3rd. He made a bazillion errors but his bat was slowly coming around. A legitimate 18-years-old in A ball, he was ranked as the LAD 22nd prospect in the system.
So coming:
Yu Darvish, Tony Watson, Tony Cingrani
So going:
Willie Calhoun, Scott Van Slyke, Oneil Cruz, Hendrik Clementina, Angel German
So far to make room, Peter O’Brien has been released.
Farmer joins the Dodger party
Kyle Farmer may not be around long in August but he can rest assured he will now forever be part of the winning lore of 2017. Getting a walk off double against the Giants would already be enough to be part of the fabric but when your first major league hit is a walk off against the Giants you get your own square patch on the quilt being stitched.
This victory required so much from so many.
- Ryu had to match Bumgarner pitch for pitch which he did, going seven shutout innings for the first time in three years.
- Kiké Hernandez gunning down Panik at home by ten feet with a perfect throw on a would be sacrifice fly.
- Edward Paredes who hadn’t pitched since his major league debut almost a week ago, delivered four big outs to help get the Dodgers to the bottom of the 9th down only 1 – 0.
- Chase Utley walked off the bench and used his 37-year-old wheels to deliver a pinch hit infield single, steal second, and score from second on the single by Puig to tie the game in the bottom of the 9th.
- Yasiel Puig had to calm his nerves wait for his pitch and then deliver his sharp single to CF to tie the game in the bottom of the 9th.
- The Dodgers turned six double plays. Six
- Kyle Farmer walked up to the plate in the bottom of the 11th for his major league debut and stroked a double down the line to plate both Seager and Turner for the win.
So much winning
- 14th sweep of the season and still in July
- 20 – 3 July record is the greatest winning % in July for a Dodger team in history
- 9th walk off victory 0f 2017
- At 74 – 31 the Dodgers have a winning % of .705. Imagine that, a winning % over .700 after 105 games. Crazy times
Individual Notes:
Ryu has proven he’s back not just with what he did yesterday with his seven shutout innings, but over his five games, Ryu have given up only eight earned runs in twenty-seven innings (2.60 ERA) with thirty strikeouts against nine walks.
Corey Seager had his 3rd straight multi-hit game, and his 2nd straight three hit game. He also walked twice tonight, getting on base five times.
A helping Hand could be all the Dodgers need
Getting Brad Hand might be all the Dodgers need to wrap their arms around a 2017 World Championship. They clearly don’t need any help regarding the lineup. They could use a stud starting pitcher but questions abound if Yu or Gray are really stud pitchers and if the cost is Verdugo or Walker Buehler I could see the Dodgers balking. I know I have said I’d like to have Yu, but smarter people than me have said no thanks.
Based on the information coming out today, and it may or may not be accurate in any way. The Padres may have dropped the asking price for Brad Hand to a much more reasonable cost. Especially when taken in conjunction with the high asking price for Zach Britton.
Brad Hand is one of the late blooming left-hand relief pitchers that seem to show up every year. Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs takes a look at why Brad Hand is now such a shut down left handed setup man.
Overall, Hand has had wonderful numbers. He’s been effective against both lefties and righties. The Padres have backed off on his usage somewhat, but he’s among the league leaders in appearances since the start of last year. He’s also been among the leaders in appearances lasting more than one inning, and he’s been among the leaders in appearances on zero days’ rest. The Padres have worked him hard, and Hand has so far held up. That much is encouraging, and it allows contending teams to dream about potential playoff usage. We saw how Miller was worked to the bone. Hand could be a similar kind of fireman.
Imagine a bullpen having Brock Stewart / Pedro Baez / Brandon Morrow / Brad Hand with Jansen to close it out. It would probably give you more bang for your back then bringing in Sonny Gray.
24 hours from now we will find out which way the Dodgers leaned.
Cavalry coming?
Adrian Gonzalez has been out for several months and the Dodgers have not missed him a lick. He has been taking batting practice and will head out for a rehab assignment that should last at least a week to shake off the rust. Adrian should be rejoining his teammates by at least mid – August. He could prove to be an important addition to the team giving the Dodgers even more options than they currently have.
If the Dodgers decide to use Adrian Gonzalez in a platoon role they could:
Against RHP you could start Adrian at 1st, Taylor at 2nd, and Bellinger in LF, sitting Forsythe. Against LHP, Adrian is the bench piece waiting to make a difference as a pinch-hitter.
If the Dodgers decide to use Adrian Gonzalez in a full time role that gets dicier. Bellinger has to play. The question would come down to either sitting Taylor, Fortsyhe, or Joc. Against LHP if Adrian plays, Joc is the easy sit with either Cody or Chris playing CF and the other RF. Forsythe should always play against LHP.
I know I’ve read that we don’t need Adrian and he has nothing to offer anymore. That may be correct but I think that this is short sided. Sure he’s an old first baseman who can’t hit left-hand pitching anymore and has a bad back.
But he has been rehabbing his back for two months, taken several shots and it is very possible that he might be healthy enough to be productive if used correctly. We shouldn’t short change what Adrian could bring to the table.
Also, news has come that Andre Either has finally progressed to batting practice so it is also just a matter of time before Andre goes out on a rehab and rejoins the team. Unlike Adrian, it is going to be hard for Andre to find his way into any role. Mainly because of Adrian. If Adrian wasn’t around you could see Andre playing LF against RHP and using Taylor at 2nd and sitting Logan. But with Adrian coming back, Cody has to play LF against RHP which puts Andre as the first left handed pinch hitter on the bench. Looking toward Sept you can see a role for Andre as a piece on the bench but that is about it.
More needs to be made of Morrow
Much of the talk this year has centered around the amazing seasons that several Dodgers have had who started the year in AAA. That talk has always been about Cody Bellinger and Chris Taylor. For good reason.
But, Brandon Morrow would like to you know he is kicking ass as a 100 MPH throwing setup man and has done as much to solidify the Dodger bullpen as anyone not named Kenley Jansen.
Jeff Sullivan over at Fangraphs gives us the lowdown on Morrow.
I’m providing the link above not just because I’m going to grab a quote, but because it is a well-written article that if you are bothering to read this, you should read that because I’m just the fluff while Jeff is the guts.
Morrow’s average fastball is up 2.7 miles per hour. That’s the biggest increase in the major leagues this season, and it would count as the 13th-biggest increase over the past decade. Brent Suter is up 2.6 miles per hour, to 86.9. Morrow is up 2.7 miles per hour, to 97.8. Lately, he’s been throwing even harder than that. You could ask Dozier about that if you wanted to.
His arm strength having returned, Morrow looks electric again. But this goes beyond just his raw stuff. Morrow has also made progress elsewhere — as he’s gotten older, he’s matured into something of an extreme thrower of strikes.
Morrow was one of those inexpensive pickups this past winter that has all sorts of upside with little downside. He always projected to be a great bullpen piece if he could simply be healthy, and now he is. It must be frustrating for an organization like the Padres who spent all the money on Morrow and got none of the benefits because of his numerous injuries only to see him excelling for the Dodger for peanuts. The Dodgers acquired him in January and I briefly commented at the time how I liked this pickup.
Morrow almost made the Dodgers out of spring training but the numbers game (Sergio Romo) had him start the season in the AAA. Morrow did stuff, bided his time, got one callup and didn’t give up any runs in five games but still found himself back in AAA. Such is the Dodger depth. His 2nd callup wasn’t expected to be for long either but when you don’t give up any earned runs over and over you get to stay.
Right now Morrow is an integral part of the bullpen and could be a key reason why the Dodgers aren’t busy bringing in another right handed bullpen piece. They got theirs.
Dodgers get their pitcher
Well, not quite, but they did acquire a starting pitcher today. His name just wasn’t Yu Darvish, or Sonny Gray, or Justin Verlander. It was Luke Farrell and the cost was considerably less than Alex Verdugo. Actually, the cost was simply cost. The Dodgers paid cash for Farrell.
Farrell is 6’6, and was born June 7th, 1991 and was not among the Royals top 30 prospects in either 2016 or 2017 according to Baseball America. Fangraphs did have this to say about Luke before the start of the year:
Luke Farrell, RHP, 2.8 KATOH+ – Big (6-foot-6), smart (Northwestern), tough (has dealt with multiple tumors that required complicated biopsies) with good baseball bloodlines (his father is John Farrell), Luke’s fastball sits 90-92 with downhill plane, he has an average cutter and fringe curveball. He projects as an up-and-down arm without quite enough stuff to crack a full-time rotation spot, though you could argue his pitches have more projection than most 25-year-olds because of the developmental time he missed dealing with his health issues.
The Dodgers had scaled back their strange run of waiver pickups from 2015 but this one probably ranks with those. At the very least he’ll provide depth to the AAA rotation until he is also waived.
Katoh from Fangraphs kicks things up
Chris Mitchell over at Fangraphs has an experimental tool called Katoh that it he uses to do prospect rankings based on how much fWAR they would expect to generate over the next six years. I would really recommend reading the link above before checking out the list so you get a good idea of what Katoh is about.
For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, but due to their objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated.
Katoh has two columns below. The first Katoh column uses the statistical model plus incorporates the Baseball America Midseason top 100 list. The second column is strictly stat based. No scouting noise, simply production and whatever algorithm they are using to come up with their fWAR analysis.
If you look at the list and compare it to the general prospect lists you will find some Dodger surprises. For one, Alex Verdugo really shines here. For Katoh he’s a top 5 – 10 prospect. Willie Calhoun the same way, but that is to be expected because he’s not getting dinged for the lack of a major league position.
My favorites though are Brock Stewart, Keibert Ruiz, and WILMER FONT showing up. Neither Baseball America nor Major League Baseball had any of those three in their top 100 and I’ve been tooting their horns like Benny Goodman. Edwin Rios also pops up on the stats only list.
You will have to scroll all the way to the bottom to see Font because I sorted this by MLB top 30 just so you could see how ignored Font has been this year.
In my next column, you will see that Keibert and Font are starting to get some play with another prospect list. My island is getting crowded.
Many favorites simply haven’t played enough to have had any kind of sample size for Katoh to work with. Kendall, Heredia, White, May.
My only disappointment was in not seeing Dennis Santana crack the Katoh code.
| ProspecName | BirthDate | AGE | League | Katoh + Top 100 | Katoh Stats Only | BA MidSeason | MLB MidSeason | RotoWireMidSeason |
| Walker Buehler | 7/28/1994 | 23 | AAA | 3 (41) | 6 (94) | 1 | 1(13) | 1 (40) |
| Alex Verdugo* | 5/15/1996 | 21 | AAA | 1 (9) | 1 (5) | 2 | 2 (28) | 2 (34) |
| Yadier Alvarez | 3/7/1996 | 21 | AA | 3 | 3 (51) | 3 (71) | ||
| Willie Calhoun* | 11/4/1994 | 22 | AAA | 2 (24) | 2 (15) | 4 | 4 (70) | 5 (91) |
| Jeren Kendall | 2/4/1996 | 21 | A | 7 | 5 (85) | 7 (112) | ||
| Yusniel Diaz | 10/7/1996 | 20 | A+ | 5 | 6 (88) | 11 (140) | ||
| Mitchell White | 12/28/1994 | 22 | AA | 6 | 7 | 4 (85) | ||
| Keibert Ruiz | 7/20/1998 | 19 | A+ | 4 (57) | 3 (51) | 8 | 6 (103) | |
| Will Smith | 3/28/1995 | 22 | AA | 10 | 9 | 8 (115) | ||
| Brock Stewart | 10/3/1991 | 25 | Majors | 5 (71) | 5 (88) | 9 | 10 | 13 (201) |
| Gavin Lux | 11/23/1997 | 19 | A | 11 | ||||
| Jordan Sheffield | 6/1/1995 | 22 | A | 12 | 18 (315) | |||
| Starling Heredia | 2/6/1999 | 18 | Rookie | 13 | 12 (187) | |||
| Dennis Santana | 4/12/1996 | 21 | AA | 14 | ||||
| Omar Estevez | 2/25/1998 | 19 | A+ | 15 | ||||
| Trevor Oaks | 3/26/1993 | 24 | AAA | 16 | ||||
| Dustin May | 9/6/1997 | 19 | A | 8 | 17 | 9 (119) | ||
| AJ Alexy | 4/21/1998 | 19 | A | 18 | ||||
| Edwin Rios* | 4/21/1994 | 23 | AAA | 4(70) | 19 | 16 (283) | ||
| D.J. Peters | 12/12/1995 | 21 | A+ | 20 | 10 (125) | |||
| Drew Jackson | 7/28/1993 | 24 | A+ | 21 | ||||
| Oneil Cruz | 10/4/1998 | 18 | A | 22 | 19 (342) | |||
| Imani Abdullah | 4/20/1997 | 20 | A | 23 | ||||
| James Marinan | 10/10/1998 | 18 | 24 | |||||
| Caleb Ferguson* | 7/2/1996 | 21 | A+ | 25 | ||||
| Ronny Brito | 3/22/1999 | 18 | Rookie | 26 | 20 (353) | |||
| Morgan Cooper | 9/12/1994 | 22 | 27 | |||||
| Brendon Davis | 7/27/1997 | 20 | A+ | 28 | 17 (303) | |||
| Carlos Rincon | 10/14/1997 | 19 | A | 29 | ||||
| Kyle Farmer | 8/17/1990 | 26 | AAA | 30 | ||||
| Wilmer Font | 5/24/1990 | 27 | AAA | 6 (99) | 7 (98) | 14 (215) | ||
| Cristian Santana | 2/24/1997 | 20 | A | 15 (266) |
Befuddled Giants
Last year around this time the Giants were in first place and the Dodgers were for the first time having to confront a rotation without Clayton Kershaw. Things didn’t look good and I even said they didn’t look good. Jon Weisman said no problem, and we know who was right last summer.
The Giants went into a skid and never recovered. The Dodgers got hot even without Kershaw. Both seemed inexplicable at the time.
On July 28th, 2016 the Giants were 59 – 43, sixteen games over .500. They had just traded for Matt Moore and Nunez to bolster the team. You would have thought that they would play better with the new players or at least around the same. Instead, they free fell and finished the season under .500 over their last 60 games going 28 – 32. They still finished the overall season over .500 with a nice record of 87 – 75 and four games under .500 during a 60 game stretch could simply be an anomaly.
Headed into 2017 the Giants still had a nice quartet of starting pitchers with Madbum, Cueto, Shark, and Moore. They had addressed their back of the end bullpen issues by adding Mark Melancon. They still had a core of Posey, Belt, Crawford, and Pence. No one would think of them as world beaters but it did have the look of a competitive team.
Not so much. 40 – 63 is the 2017 Giant record on July 28th. They are now 68 – 95 since last July 28th. They are no longer fighting for the postseason they are fighting for the first draft pick with the White Sox and Phillies.
I’m not even going to address why they are this bad, I’m still in shock that a team that was 59 – 43 at this point last year are 68 – 95 since that point.
Good thing, Giant fans have three rings to wave around. That will get them through the next couple of years of rebuild.
Fantastic Font
Wilmer Font has done everything you could ask in 2017 to get a shot at some kind of major league role. In most organizations, he would have gotten a few starts by now but in the deep Dodger organization, he bides his time behind a deep major league rotation.
With the injuries to Kershaw and McCarthy, he can start to see through a porthole but not yet a complete window. Ryu and Hill are always on shaky ground when it comes to health and Alex Wood is no oak tree himself.
When the deadline passes, it is possible that Font will find himself further back in the depth chart if the Dodger acquire a rotation piece or in another organization that can take a chance on him.
This is what he has done in AAA OKC in 2017.
- Leads the PCL in strikeouts with 147. 2nd is 114. Talk about a leadership role.
- Leads the PCL in KK/9 for starters at 12.5. Next starter on the list is his teammate Fabio Castillo at 10.0
- Is 4th among starters with a WHIP of 1.109. Just above Font was Marco Gonzalez who was just traded to the Mariners for their 2nd best hitting prospect Tyler O’Neil.
I understand Wilmer Font was not a real prospect entering 2017 but he has certainly pitched like one. Enough so that the Fangraphs experimental prospect tool called Katoh has Font now listed as a top 100 prospect. Of course he’s in the 90’s but still, he finally made a prospect list. Woo Hoo.
Here is a collection of his best games this year. Notice his last three starts.
Date IP H ER BB SO GSc 2017-04-12 5.0 3 0 1 11 71 2017-05-03 5.0 4 3 1 9 55 2017-05-09 5.1 4 2 0 6 58 2017-05-15 7.0 2 1 1 15 83 2017-05-21 5.0 5 3 2 10 53 2017-06-02 6.0 2 0 1 10 77 2017-06-08 6.0 5 1 0 7 65 2017-06-14 6.0 3 0 1 7 72 2017-07-16 6.0 3 1 0 8 70 2017-07-21 7.0 7 2 1 11 65 2017-07-27 6.0 4 0 1 9 72
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/28/2017.
Dodgers, Yesterday and Today 