Katoh from Fangraphs kicks things up

Chris Mitchell over at Fangraphs has an experimental tool called Katoh that it he uses to do prospect rankings based on how much fWAR they would expect to generate over the next six years. I would really recommend reading the link above before checking out the list so you get a good idea of what Katoh is about.

For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, but due to their objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated.

Katoh has two columns below. The first Katoh column uses the statistical model plus incorporates the Baseball America Midseason top 100 list. The second column is strictly stat based. No scouting noise, simply production and whatever algorithm they are using to come up with their fWAR analysis.

If you look at the list and compare it to the general prospect lists you will find some Dodger surprises. For one, Alex Verdugo really shines here.  For Katoh he’s a top 5 – 10 prospect.  Willie Calhoun the same way, but that is to be expected because he’s not getting dinged for the lack of a major league position.

My favorites though are Brock Stewart, Keibert Ruiz, and WILMER FONT showing up. Neither Baseball America nor Major League Baseball had any of those three in their top 100 and I’ve been tooting their horns like Benny Goodman.  Edwin Rios also pops up on the stats only list.

You will have to scroll all the way to the bottom to see Font because I sorted this by MLB top 30 just so you could see how ignored Font has been this year.

In my next column, you will see that Keibert and Font are starting to get some play with another prospect list.  My island is getting crowded.

Many favorites simply haven’t played enough to have had any kind of sample size for Katoh to work with. Kendall, Heredia, White, May.

My only disappointment was in not seeing Dennis Santana crack the Katoh code.

ProspecName BirthDate AGE League Katoh + Top 100 Katoh Stats Only BA MidSeason MLB MidSeason RotoWireMidSeason
Walker Buehler 7/28/1994 23 AAA 3 (41) 6 (94) 1 1(13) 1 (40)
Alex Verdugo* 5/15/1996 21 AAA 1 (9) 1 (5) 2 2 (28) 2 (34)
Yadier Alvarez 3/7/1996 21 AA 3 3 (51) 3 (71)
Willie Calhoun* 11/4/1994 22 AAA 2 (24) 2 (15) 4 4 (70) 5 (91)
Jeren Kendall 2/4/1996 21 A 7 5 (85) 7 (112)
Yusniel Diaz 10/7/1996 20 A+ 5 6 (88) 11 (140)
Mitchell White 12/28/1994 22 AA 6 7 4 (85)
Keibert Ruiz 7/20/1998 19 A+ 4 (57) 3 (51) 8 6 (103)
Will Smith 3/28/1995 22 AA 10 9 8 (115)
Brock Stewart 10/3/1991 25 Majors 5 (71) 5 (88) 9 10 13 (201)
Gavin Lux 11/23/1997 19 A 11
Jordan Sheffield 6/1/1995 22 A 12 18 (315)
Starling Heredia 2/6/1999 18 Rookie 13 12 (187)
Dennis Santana 4/12/1996 21 AA 14
Omar Estevez 2/25/1998 19 A+ 15
Trevor Oaks 3/26/1993 24 AAA 16
Dustin May 9/6/1997 19 A 8 17 9 (119)
AJ Alexy 4/21/1998 19 A 18
Edwin Rios* 4/21/1994 23 AAA 4(70) 19 16 (283)
D.J. Peters 12/12/1995 21 A+ 20 10 (125)
Drew Jackson 7/28/1993 24 A+ 21
Oneil Cruz 10/4/1998 18 A 22 19 (342)
Imani Abdullah 4/20/1997 20 A 23
James Marinan 10/10/1998 18 24
Caleb Ferguson* 7/2/1996 21 A+ 25
Ronny Brito 3/22/1999 18 Rookie 26 20 (353)
Morgan Cooper 9/12/1994 22 27
Brendon Davis 7/27/1997 20 A+ 28 17 (303)
Carlos Rincon 10/14/1997 19 A 29
Kyle Farmer 8/17/1990 26 AAA 30
Wilmer Font 5/24/1990 27 AAA 6 (99) 7 (98) 14 (215)
Cristian Santana 2/24/1997 20 A 15 (266)
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