Making out a lineup card

♦ September 14, 2017 ♦ 3 Comments

Last night the Dodgers won 4 – 1 behind the excellent pitching of Yu Darvish, and timely hitting of Cody Bellinger, along with a spectacular play by Kiké Hernandez.

The interesting part for me though was the lineup the Dodgers used. With left handed Matt Moore going you knew the lineup would have Kiké, Barnes, and Forsythe.

Dave Roberts dropped Puig from 5th to 8th, moved/kept Forsythe at 5th and batted Barnes/Hernandez sixth and seventh respectively.  The idea of the struggling Forsythe batting fifth while the red hot Puig was dropped to eighth was a little eye opening.

Several bloggers defended the move by showing off Logan’s left handed splits for the year and Puig’s. That seemed a tad disingenuous to me. Puig has the same great history as Forsythe of hitting left-hand pitching but started out slow against them this year. Slow might be an understatement.

Puig has been one of the Dodgers hottest hitters since the break, Forsythe one of the worst. If you bring in the splits by using the split tool from Fangraphs you can see that Forsythe is only hitting .208 against LHP in the second half with zero home runs, and four doubles in 66 plate appearances. His saving grace are his 13 walks.  All of Logan’s damage against LHP came in the first half where he hit .386 with eight extra base hits. Add in the 12 walks in just 72 plate appearances you had a valuable player against LHP.

Puig, on the other hand, hit .164 in the first half against LHP as that was what was keeping him from becoming an elite hitter in 2017.  Only 3 XBH, with two doubles and one home run.  I had heard he was having a much better 2nd half against LHP but when you look at the hit tool you see some improvement but not enough to make my case that he shouldn’t be hitting 8th against LHP. Oh well, I got this far so why stop. Puig in the 2nd half is only hitting .194. Hmm. How about August? Not so good. We actually have to cherry pick his Sept numbers to get any type of argument in his favor. In Sept, Puig is hitting .286 with three walks in a tiny sample size of 17 plate appearances. All the numbers quoted are against left-hand pitching.

So my conclusion is that even with Puig appearing to be hot, Dave Roberts made the right decision last night in batting Forsythe 5th. I would have batted Puig sixth not eighth and while Forsythe/Barnes/Hernandez combined to go 1 for 9, Barnes did garner two walks, and Logan one so the trio got on base four times in twelve plate appearances. Forsythe hit a key single in the 1st inning to plate Cody Bellinger who had tripled.  His other three at-bats were typical Logan this year, two strikeouts and one walk.

I think as this month progresses and if Puig continues to improve against left-hand pitching you want him getting as many at-bats as possible instead of what he would get from the eight spot.  Maybe Dave Roberts didn’t like the idea of Bellinger getting three intentional walks on Tuesday night with Puig hitting behind him.  I kind of think that since the Dodgers didn’t trade for JD Martinez and Adrian Gonzalez looking done they have no real choice but to live and die with Puig in the five spot.  It is not ideal but that is what you have when Joc/Granderson/Adrian aren’t options, and Grandal has currently hit a wall.

Hernandez made a spectacular play from left field last charging a medium pop fly and taking it on the dead run and nailing the runner at first who was in no man’s land because of the spot of the fly ball. It was a tough throw on the run, and he did it perfectly. If only Hernandez was still hitting. Dave Roberts mentioned yesterday that Hernandez would play every day against LHP for the rest of the year and presumably in the postseason.  It is not ideal but at least he’s the best defensive left fielder the Dodgers have and maybe he can get his bat going by the time he has to face Robbie Ray or Patrick Corbin or Gio Gonzalez or Jon Lester.

Bellinger put all his tools on display in the Dodger two game winning streak. You kind of knew that for the Dodgers to find the winning path, that one of the four horsemen would need to lead them and it was Cody who stepped up. On Tuesday Night he made one of the best plays by a Dodger 1st baseman you will ever see but the Giants would not let him beat them with his bat by walking him three times intentionally. On Wednesday he did all his damage before they remembered to walk him. In the first, he hit a triple and it was really a stand-up triple even though he slid, more to stop his momentum than anything else. He followed that with a splash home run, and the splash home run is one of the great home runs of the 21st century. We don’t have many, so it was fun to see Chase and Cody do it in back to back games. He also made another fine play on a bullet line drive to his right.

Yu looked great but it was against the Giants. I heartily approve of Yu being skipped against the Nationals, no need in giving them advance notice of his repertoire.

The curious case of Gilberto Reyes

♦ September 13, 2017 ♦ 1 Comment

With 19-year-old Keibert Reyes being promoted to AA this week to help Tulsa with their postseason run I was curious if any Dodger catching prospect had ever made it to AA while still a teenager.

I headed to Baseball Reference and sorted every catcher and their rookie season with the Dodgers to find out the age they debuted with the Dodgers.

The one name that stood out was Gilberto Reyes. He would never exhaust his rookie status with the Dodgers. He made his debut at age 19 in 1983 and he wasn’t just a September call-up. His debut date was June 11th, 1983.  He would be on the roster from June 11th – July 27th and start eight games. He went back to the minors and did come back in Sept but played very little. The Dodger catchers in 1983 were Steve Yeager, the infamous Jack Fimple, Mike Scioscia, Gil Reyes, and Dave Sax.

According to David Young of TrueblueLA, Reyes got the call because of an injury to Mike Scioscia.  Not only was Gilberto Reyes the youngest catcher to ever play for the Los Angeles Dodgers but he also got a ring in 1988 and never played a game in the postseason. Dave knew an interesting story when he saw it.

“I remember what happened to Gilberto Reyes. Scioscia injured his back [in Game 4 of the World Series] and we had gotten permission from [then-Commissioner] Peter Ueberroth to bring Reyes to Oakland. I had him fly in from the Dominican. He flies out–he got there the night of what proved to be the final game. He walks into the clubhouse about the time they started popping champagne bottles. The guy has flown in all the way from the Dominican Republic to get soaked in champagne.”

Year    Age   Tm  PA  OPS OPS+
1983     19  LAD  32 .413   15
1984     20  LAD   5 .000 -100
1985     21  LAD   3 .667  107
1987     23  LAD             0
1988     24  LAD   9 .222  -35
1989     25  MON   5 .400   15
1991     27  MON 229 .546   56
7 Yr   7 Yr 7 Yr 283 .510   46
162     162  162 376 .510   46

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/13/2017.

For a catcher who debuted at age 19 he had a very unsubstantial major league career and would end his career with only 283 major league plate appearances. Bill Plaschke doing what he does best, writing about sad stories, and Gilberto Reyes was one of them.

Kevin Pasley debuted with Dodgers at the age of 20 but would only play in one game without getting any plate appearances, and that was in 1973. He also would end up with an unremarkable major league career, getting only 132 major league plate appearances.

This leaves Mike Scioscia as the man to follow. Which we will do next.

Rk              Name Age Year  Tm  PA   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS   Pos
1          Gil Reyes  19 1983 LAD  32 .161 .188 .226  .413    *2
2       Kevin Pasley  20 1974 LAD                        0   /*2
3          Gil Reyes  20 1984 LAD   5 .000 .000 .000  .000 /*H*2
4      Mike Scioscia  21 1980 LAD 152 .254 .313 .328  .641  *2/H
5          Gil Reyes  21 1985 LAD   3 .000 .667 .000  .667  /*2H
6     Dioner Navarro  21 2005 LAD 199 .273 .354 .375  .729    *2
7    Darrin Fletcher  22 1989 LAD   9 .500 .556 .875 1.431  /*2H

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/13/2017.

Dodgers don’t lose twelve in a row

♦ September 13, 2017 ♦ 1 Comment

and if Clayton Kershaw doesn’t get hurt they might win three more games this season.

Levity kids, levity.

Anyway, Clayton was not at his best last night but the offense woke up just enough to break the Dodgers eleven game losing streak.

If you want more levity the Dodgers are 0 – 15 since August 26th in games that Kershaw did not start.

Date                          Opp  W/L    R   RA   W-L     GB       Win
Saturday Aug 26      boxscore MIL    L    0    3 91-37 up20.0    Davies
Sunday Aug 27        boxscore MIL    L    2    3 91-38 up19.0    Nelson
Tuesday Aug 29       boxscore ARI    L    6    7 91-39 up18.0    Godley
Wednesday Aug 30     boxscore ARI    L    4    6 91-40 up17.0       Ray
Thursday Aug 31      boxscore ARI    L    1    8 91-41 up16.0   Greinke
Saturday Sep 2 (1)   boxscore SDP L-wo    5    6 92-42 up14.5      Hand
Saturday Sep 2 (2)   boxscore SDP    L    2    7 92-43 up14.5   Baumann
Sunday Sep 3         boxscore SDP    L    4    6 92-44 up13.5    Chacin
Monday Sep 4         boxscore ARI    L    0   13 92-45 up12.5       Ray
Tuesday Sep 5        boxscore ARI    L    1    3 92-46 up11.5 Hernandez
Wednesday Sep 6      boxscore ARI    L    1    3 92-47 up10.5    Walker
Friday Sep 8         boxscore COL    L    4    5 92-49 up10.0     Rusin
Saturday Sep 9       boxscore COL    L    5    6 92-50 up10.0    Bettis
Sunday Sep 10        boxscore COL    L    1    8 92-51 up 9.0  Chatwood
Monday Sep 11        boxscore SFG    L    6    8 92-52 up 9.0       Law

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/13/2017.

But today is a new day and the Dodgers have a one game winning streak. Much of that can be attributed to a brilliant defensive fourth inning.  After a lead off double by Todd Hundley,  Justin Turner fields a tough bounce down the 3rd base line but throws errantly to 1st base. Cody Bellinger makes like Michael Jordan and goes vertical and horizontal to catch the errant throw and while several feet in the air, manages to tag Austin Slater so instead of 1st and 2nd with no outs, the Giants have one out and a runner on second. Calixte flies out to RF, and the Puig cannon fires one of best throws. It landed perfectly in the glove of Justin Turner on the bag. The runner never even attempted to advance to 3rd, but the throw itself was a thing of beauty.

Tomlinson would single to CF but Chris Taylor charged,  threw his own bullet to Grandal and Hundley was so far out, he simply stopped running.

They didn’t make it easy and it is a testament to the struggle of the team that the two games they have won since Aug 27th have been 1 – 0 and 5 – 3.  Don’t think the ship is righted yet, this was just one victory against the worse team in the National League, but it was a win they desperately needed.

Second half stats and Sept stats

♦ September 12, 2017 ♦ 2 Comments

Staring at an eleven game losing streak I was curious about the team stats for the second half and just sept.

Second Half Stats:

Puig has squeezed himself into the top four passing Bellinger, Seager, and Turner.

Player                 Split Year  OPS GS  PA 2B HR   BA  OBP  SLG
Chris Taylor        2nd Half 2017 .915 49 226 15  9 .314 .363 .552
Yasiel Puig         2nd Half 2017 .907 45 191 10  9 .272 .382 .525
Cody Bellinger      2nd Half 2017 .898 43 182  7 11 .276 .352 .546
Corey Seager        2nd Half 2017 .846 42 194  9  6 .324 .371 .475
Austin Barnes       2nd Half 2017 .834 18  94  3  1 .321 .436 .397
Justin Turner       2nd Half 2017 .821 49 214 12  9 .265 .346 .476
Yasmani Grandal     2nd Half 2017 .708 37 156  6  8 .213 .282 .426
Chase Utley         2nd Half 2017 .690 19  89  5  2 .238 .315 .375
Enrique Hernandez   2nd Half 2017 .664 19  99  3  3 .213 .293 .371
Logan Forsythe      2nd Half 2017 .636 42 178  7  2 .203 .343 .294
Adrian Gonzalez     2nd Half 2017 .574 14  61  5  1 .207 .230 .345
Joc Pederson        2nd Half 2017 .547 26 100  6  2 .149 .260 .287
Curtis Granderson   2nd Half 2017 .534 20  86  0  4 .111 .256 .278

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/12/2017.

Sept Stats:

You can see part of the problem. Two of the players who carried the team all year, Corey Seager and Chris Taylor are both struggling. Since they normally hit 1 and 2, that is leaving precious few base runners for the best hitter in Sept, Justin Turner.  In Sept, once you get past Puig in the five spot, the bottom of the lineup are simply out makers.

Player                 Split Year  OPS GS PA 2B HR   BA  OBP  SLG
Justin Turner       Sept/Oct 2017 .985 10 41  4  2 .324 .390 .595
Andre Ethier        Sept/Oct 2017 .833  3 15  0  1 .286 .333 .500
Yasiel Puig         Sept/Oct 2017 .813  9 38  4  1 .265 .342 .471
Cody Bellinger      Sept/Oct 2017 .771 11 46  3  2 .233 .283 .488
Austin Barnes       Sept/Oct 2017 .763  4 20  0  0 .313 .450 .313
Alex Verdugo        Sept/Oct 2017 .653  4 18  0  1 .188 .278 .375
Enrique Hernandez   Sept/Oct 2017 .647  2 17  1  0 .294 .294 .353
Adrian Gonzalez     Sept/Oct 2017 .636  3 11  1  0 .273 .273 .364
Logan Forsythe      Sept/Oct 2017 .606  8 33  1  1 .200 .273 .333
Corey Seager        Sept/Oct 2017 .586  4 21  1  0 .250 .286 .300
Chris Taylor        Sept/Oct 2017 .581  9 43  2  1 .233 .233 .349
Joc Pederson        Sept/Oct 2017 .408  4 13  0  0 .100 .308 .100
Yasmani Grandal     Sept/Oct 2017 .341  8 32  0  1 .038 .188 .154
Curtis Granderson   Sept/Oct 2017 .297  9 35  0  0 .097 .200 .097
Chase Utley         Sept/Oct 2017 .277  5 15  0  0 .077 .200 .077

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/12/2017.

Maybe Kershaw is the curse?

♦ September 12, 2017 ♦ 4 Comments

Forget about the Sports Illustrated curse, maybe the curse is the Dodgers starting pitcher tonight.

On July 23rd the game started by Kershaw the Dodger record was 68 – 31.  On August 31st the last game before Kershaw would make his first start back from the disabled list, the Dodger record was 91 – 41.

They went 23 – 10 while Kershaw was on the DL.

The only game they have won since Clayton came off the DL was his first start on Sept 1st, 1 – 0.

They are now 1 – 11 since Clayton Kershaw came off the disabled list.

If only it was so simple to use such a simplistic cause and effect.

But it isn’t.

The Dodgers are currently the worse team in baseball not because of Clayton Kershaw but because:

For Sure:

  • The left fielders suck
  • The 2nd baseman suck
  • The starting catchers sucks
  • The first innings sucks
  • The bullpen has sucked at key moments

Why/Maybe?

  • Too many cooks in the kitchen?
  • Front office failed chemistry class?
  • Team got complacent and it is taking a while to get back the game face they had when they steamrolled lousy teams?
  • Adrian Gonzalez is cursed?
  • Taylor/Turner/Bellinger/Seager went from MVP candidates to mere mortals?

Reddick and Granderson

♦ September 12, 2017 ♦ 2 Comments

Last year the Dodger front office bet on Josh Reddick as their right fielder and banished their regular right fielder Yasiel Puig to AAA.  It was not a good bet. For the first thirty days of his Dodger career, he put up one of the worst months of any LAD outfielder in history.

Player                 Split Year  OPS PA SO   BA  OBP  SLG
Josh Reddick          August 2016 .396 94 15 .161 .223 .172
Ron Fairly              July 1966 .395 80 12 .129 .238 .157
John Shelby             June 1989 .385 93 25 .146 .183 .202
Don Demeter             July 1959 .384 61 16 .153 .164 .220
Tommy Davis           August 1961 .373 79  7 .155 .218 .155
Tony Gwynn              July 2012 .364 54 11 .140 .204 .160
Eric Young            August 1992 .359 75  4 .162 .197 .162
Bill Buckner            June 1975 .333 58  6 .120 .193 .140
Howie Kendrick   April/March 2016 .333 55 14 .151 .182 .151

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/12/2017.

This year the Dodger front office bet on Curtis Granderson and banished their regular center fielder Joc Pederson to AAA. So far that has not been a good bet, as Curtis Granderson is having as bad a time as Josh Reddick had.

Player                 Split Year            OPS PA  BA  OBP  SLG
Josh Reddick          August 2016           .396 94 .161 .223 .172
Curtis Granderson     Aug19th-Sept11th 2017 .534 86 .111 .256 .278

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/12/2017.

Josh Reddick recovered and had a fine empty Sept. The Dodgers have eighteen games left to find out if Curtis Granderson is the right man for left field.  For a team on their way to winning (maybe) 100 games so many questions abound but today let us just focus on left field.

If we go with the idea that Chris Taylor is the center fielder, the left fielder could be one of many.

It could be Cody Bellinger against RHP, with Adrian Gonzalez at 1st. Is Adrian a better bet than Andre Ethier, Joc Pederson, or Curtis Granderson against RHP? They are all left-hand hitters. Only Andre of the four has shown any spunk in his bat.

Against LHP I’d expect Bellinger to be playing 1st base which leaves Andre, Joc, Granderson or Hernandez for LF. Those are all horrible options against a left-hand pitcher. Forget about Joc here. We should also forget about Andre here as his historical history against LHP is terrible.  That would leave Granderson and Kiké Hernandez as the likely starter against an LHP, and Mr. Hernandez has been less than stellar himself for quite a while now.  Franklyn Guiterrez was supposed to be this guy back in April but he is done for the year.  The Dodgers have 38 players on their Sept roster and I can’t find one good option against LHP in left field for the postseason.

I don’t know, it kind of seems the one thing this team didn’t need is another left handed hitting outfielder.  I guess 20 analysts weren’t able to figure that out.

 

Remember when the Giants had the best record at the break in 2016?

♦ September 11, 2017 ♦ 1 Comment

For two years in a row now, the team with the best record in baseball at the break came from the NL West, and for two years in a row, both teams have had major issues in the second half.

The Giants had 57 wins at the break in 2016, the Dodgers in the midst of only losing three games in all of July had 61 wins.  You’d think that the Dodgers would have had more than just four wins more than the Giants but they didn’t. We have already forgotten just how good the first half 2016 Giants were. Because they didn’t win the division, and because they are now the worst team in the NL.
2016 NL Standings at the break:

Tm     W  L W-L%  GB  RS  RA pythW-L%
SFG   57 33 .633  -- 424 351     .586
WSN   54 36 .600 3.0 422 317     .628
CHC   53 35 .602 3.0 460 321     .659
LAD   51 40 .560 6.5 382 329     .568
NYM   47 41 .534 9.0 335 315     .528
MIA   47 41 .534 9.0 371 370     .501

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/11/2017.
2017 NL Standings at the break:

Tm     W  L W-L%  RS  RA pythW-L%
LAD   61 29 .678 463 300     .689
ARI   53 36 .596 446 344     .617
WSN   52 36 .591 486 396     .593
COL   52 39 .571 461 419     .544
MIL   50 41 .549 451 406     .548
CHC   43 45 .489 399 399     .500
STL   43 45 .489 402 389     .515

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/11/2017.

The Dodgers always had some issues with the starting lineup at 2nd and CF, but those issues were easily overshadowed when the top four hitters in the lineup were all hitting well enough to be in the MVP conversation. No one is in that conversation now.  No one is driving the bus as it careens downhill toward disaster but there is still time for someone or multiple drivers to take control.

The Dodger will right the ship, but will it simply be floating toward the shoals of October disaster, or have all oars rowing together?

 

Font, Rios, Peters, and Ferguson make Baseball America Prospect All-Star teams

♦ September 11, 2017 ♦ Leave a comment

Wilmer Font made the AAA All-Star team

Edwin Rios made the AA All-Star team as the DH

DJ Peters made the A+ All-Star team as an outfielder and Caleb Ferguson made it as a starting pitcher

Notable exceptions were Alex Verdugo and Walker Buehler. Walker had a tough task because he split time between AA and AAA but Verdugo was in AAA all year.

 

 

 

Dennis Santana pitches minor league game of the year for Dodgers

♦ September 10, 2017 ♦ Leave a comment

Dennis Santana hasn’t had the greatest success at Tulsa since being promoted a few months ago but he saved his best for the biggest moment of the season.

Tulsa went with four starters before calling on Dennis Santana in game five of a series tied at two games a piece. Santana responded with seven shutout innings, giving up only three hits, two walks, while striking out a career high eleven.

With the victory the Tulsa Drillers move onto the next round:

as the Drillers beat Northwest Arkansas, 6-1, in the decisive fifth game of the North Division finals. He gave up three hits and two walks while plunking a batter in his first scoreless outing since joining Tulsa at the end of July.

“The fastball just had so much run to it and the curveball he throws was unhittable and the change was plus for him tonight,” Drillers manager Scott Hennessey said. “He threw three pitches for strikes, stayed ahead of hitters and the stuff took care of itself.”

Three of the Dodger top five pitching prospects have pitched so far in the Texas League playoffs and Dennis Santana was the best of them. Mitch White pitched a great game himself in the first game, while Yadier Alveraz was as disappointing in game four as he has been all year.

 

Another game, another beatdown

♦ September 10, 2017 ♦ 4 Comments

The Dodgers lost their 10th game in a row but more disturbing is how they are losing. They continue to be a punching bag for the NL West going 1 – 13 against the Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Padres over their past fourteen games.  They aren’t losing close games either. Of those 13 losses, they lost five of those game by more than two runs.

This team doesn’t have one problem to solve they have numerous problems to solve. It might be as simple as letting the key players play and let the rest watch.  They need the starting pitchers to pitch better, they need the bullpen to pitch better, they need to relearn the patience they had, and rediscover the long ball, along with a clutch hit once in a while.

Eric Stephen has the numbers:

Yeah, I know this is lazy writing but I know I have some folk who don’t use twitter and Eric has been on fire in reporting the bizarre anomalies of this season.

and my favorite