Puig and Mondesi, side by side
With Yasiel Puig fulfilling the destiny of his twenty-six-year-old season he now ranks side by side with Raul Mondesi in OPS+. Back in 2013 when Puig was going to start the year in AAA, I projected that he would come up and have a Raul Mondesi type of impact. He did, and now that he has completed the 2017 regular season you can see just how Mondesi like his career has been.
Below is a table of every LAD, <= 26 years old, with an OPS+ of at least 109. Puig and Mondesi are within 150 plate appearances which means you can make some WAR comparisons. Mondesi had a bWAR of 17.1 while Puig is at 16.5. The physical comparisons were there so it is interesting that they also ended up being replicated in the stats.
Player OPS+ PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS Mike Piazza 151 1592 92 .322 .375 .557 .932 Pedro Guerrero 144 1310 53 .305 .366 .502 .868 Corey Seager 133 1413 52 .305 .374 .502 .876 Frank Howard 129 1829 99 .280 .332 .512 .844 Yasiel Puig 128 2321 85 .281 .357 .475 .833 Raul Mondesi 127 2468 100 .299 .339 .511 .850 Matt Kemp 125 3158 128 .294 .350 .496 .846 Mike Marshall 120 2122 90 .268 .328 .456 .784 Steve Garvey 120 2424 64 .297 .332 .447 .779 Andre Ethier 118 1544 44 .299 .364 .482 .846 Willie Crawford 117 2227 54 .262 .346 .413 .759 Tommy Davis 117 2886 83 .303 .337 .448 .785 Ron Fairly 115 2998 62 .270 .361 .402 .763 Joc Pederson 112 1422 62 .222 .345 .435 .780 Jim Lefebvre 111 2111 49 .259 .327 .391 .718 Ron Cey 109 1315 34 .254 .346 .390 .736
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Generated 10/9/2017.
Redemption day for Greinke
Even though Zack Greinke doesn’t think he has to be redeemed today, Arizona fans might feel differently. It was, after all, the poor start by the $34,000,000 dollar pitcher that put the team in such a bind because they had to use Robbie Ray in the play-in game instead of having him ready to face the Dodgers fresh for game one.
Greinke had been just about unbeatable at home this year
Split W L ERA GS IP WHIP SO9 SO/W Home 13 1 2.87 18 116.0 0.957 10.2 5.70 Away 4 6 3.65 14 86.1 1.228 8.8 3.82
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Generated 10/9/2017.
but on Wednesday Night, with a 6 – 0 lead, the Rockies drove Greinke from the game in the fourth inning and the Diamondback pitching staff has been playing catch up ever since.
The Diamondbacks signed Greinke to that ridiculous contract for games like Wednesday and tonight. Will he deliver for them?
Yu Darvish was acquired by the Dodgers to be the right-hand man to Clayton Kershaw. They didn’t need Yu during the regular season but they need him tonight. Yu could be adding millions to his free agent case the deeper he can pitch the Dodgers into the postseason. Given how starters are being used, you should probably expect to see Yu for only 5 – 6 innings at most.
The Dodgers have a chance to be the only playoff team to sweep a series and it would behoove them to do so. This is a chance to cut off the head of the snake before he can find a way to deliver a lethal bite.
How unique is Justin Turner?
Much has been made about Justin Turner having double-digit home run power while walking more than striking out. Listening to Vin Scully for 50 years you heard Vinny marvel all the time about the power that Joe Dimaggio had while still maintaining minuscule strikeout totals.
I decided to see just how unique this skill set was, so below is the table for every LAD who has hit at least 20 home runs while walking more than they struck out.
Gary Sheffield is the boss with a difference of 41. This list is loaded with some of the greatest hitters in LAD history but Gary Sheffield was the best at providing elite power while still walking more than he struck out.
| Player | HR | KK-BB | Year | OPS |
| Gary Sheffield | 34 | -41 | 1999 | 0.930 |
| Gary Sheffield | 36 | -40 | 2001 | 1.000 |
| Reggie Smith | 32 | -39 | 1977 | 1.003 |
| Eddie Murray | 26 | -39 | 1990 | 0.934 |
| Gary Sheffield | 43 | -37 | 2000 | 1.081 |
| Pedro Guerrero | 33 | -29 | 1985 | 0.999 |
| Ron Cey | 23 | -28 | 1976 | 0.848 |
| Eddie Murray | 20 | -26 | 1989 | 0.743 |
| Nomar Garciaparra | 20 | -21 | 2006 | 0.872 |
| Ron Cey | 25 | -19 | 1975 | 0.845 |
| Joe Ferguson | 25 | -15 | 1973 | 0.839 |
| Greg Brock | 20 | -14 | 1983 | 0.738 |
| Davey Lopes | 28 | -13 | 1979 | 0.836 |
| Paul Lo Duca | 25 | -11 | 2001 | 0.917 |
| Mike Piazza | 36 | -9 | 1996 | 0.985 |
| Ron Cey | 28 | -9 | 1979 | 0.888 |
| Ron Cey | 23 | -9 | 1978 | 0.833 |
| Justin Turner | 21 | -8 | 2017 | 0.945 |
| Jim Wynn | 32 | -8 | 1974 | 0.884 |
| Joe Ferguson | 20 | -8 | 1979 | 0.845 |
| Pedro Guerrero | 27 | -7 | 1987 | 0.955 |
| Shawn Green | 42 | -3 | 2002 | 0.944 |
| Mike Piazza | 40 | -3 | 1997 | 1.070 |
| Jeff Kent | 20 | 0 | 2007 | 0.875 |
| Duke Snider | 23 | 0 | 1959 | 0.935 |
Can Robbie Ray stop the carnage?
It has been a bad run for young pitchers making their first postseason start so far in 2017. Not just hit around a little, crushed.
When Taijuan Walker gave up four runs last night before recording an out, he was just following the same path of his fellow first time pitchers. He wasn’t even the worst, that still goes to Luis Severino.
Player Date Gm# Rslt IP H ER BB SO HR GSc Taijuan Walker 2017-10-06 1 L 5-9 1.0 4 4 2 3 1 30 Jon Gray 2017-10-04 1 L 8-11 1.1 7 4 0 2 1 26 Drew Pomeranz 2017-10-06 2 L 2-8 2.0 5 4 1 1 2 30 Luis Severino 2017-10-03 1 W 8-4 0.1 4 3 1 0 2 30
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Generated 10/7/2017.
Robbie Ray has been brilliant this year and pitched very well in the play-in game but it was not a start. He has also owned the Dodgers this year.
When he toes the rubber tonight, will he break the spell? Probably, but after pitching on Wednesday Night, and with the Dodgers bats feeling good again, I would not bet on him getting fifteen outs.
Then again, I would have bet on Kluber and Sale and we know how those games turned out.
Speaking of Kluber, hell yeah, to the Indians. What a great comeback.
Baez in, Joc out
I had surmised that Farmer would make the team, and felt that Joc would be the last man standing with eleven pitchers and fourteen hitters but the Dodgers decided they needed twelve pitchers thus giving up a bench spot. The pitching staff took a change when Avilan pulled up lame thus paving the way for Pedro Baez and Ross Stripling.
As expected Ryu will watch from the sidelines.
My only complaint is the short bench in a short series. You have three starters who should be able to give you innings, and someone who can run off of the bench might prove more useful than an extra relief pitcher like Ross Stripling. Maybe they use Ross as the pinch runner?
If Pedro is indeed fixed, he could prove useful but it would take a manager with big balls to put Pedro into a highly leveraged situation given his past history in October.
The lack of confidence in Joc is really something to consider this winter. No way can anyone think of him as a Dodger starting center fielder or left fielder anymore. He’ll have to earn his way back to that spot and one wonders if he’ll even the chance. They might simply go get someone for one of those two spots. But that is four weeks away from talking about. Right now it is all about tonight.
Who will be the key catalyst for the 2017 NLDS?
I’m going to go with Corey Seager
All eyes on Kershaw & Morrow
Clayton Kershaw has started four straight game one NLDS, and while this will be the first time he will start against a division rival in the NLDS everything else should seem familiar. In those previous four starts, the Dodgers have won two games and lost two games.
When they have won game one, they have advanced to the NLCS. When they have lost game one, they have not. Simple
Only one time has Clayton been outpitched and that was in 2015. In 2014 he had been brilliant for six innings, his competitor had been knocked out much earlier, and the Dodgers asked him to do something he was unable to do. Game one of 2014 still stands as the single biggest disappointment in all the years of watching Clayton Kershaw pitch.
That, and the poor performances in the two game six NLCS games when the Dodgers were bleeding out and instead of applying a tourniquet he pushed on the artery.
But, for the most part, Kershaw has been good enough to pitch the Dodgers to a victory in these NLDS game ones. Kershaw will be facing possibly his most formidable offensive team, and as we saw with Chris Sale last night, just being the best pitcher in the regular season doesn’t mean squat in October.
Year Series Opp Rslt IP H ER BB SO GSc Exited 2013 NLDS g1 ATL W6-1 7.0 3 1 3 12 76 7b 3 out a5 2014 NLDS g1 STL L9-10 6.2 8 8 0 10 36 7t -2- 2 out d1 2015 NLDS g1 NYM L1-3 6.2 4 3 4 11 61 7t 123 2 out d1 2016 NLDS g1 WSN W4-3 5.0 8 3 1 7 45 5b 3 out a1
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/6/2017.
Either the game will be close enough that Brandon Morrow must pitch in a highly leveraged situation or the Dodgers have blown open the game. I will not subscribe to the idea that the Diamondbacks blew open Clayton Kershaw. Which means that Morrow is the man that has to get the ball to Kenley Jansen with the Dodgers still in a position to win the game.
Morrow has been brilliant this year but none of that will matter if he can’t be the October bridge. The history of broken bridges is long in recent October Dodger lore. Broxton, Kuo, Sherrill, JP Howell, Baez, and Blanton have all failed to do the one job required of them after doing the job time after time during the summer.
Kershaw/Morrow/Jansen sounds like an unbeatable trio. Let us hope it is.
Because as I said up top, It is quite simple, win game one, win the series.
Walker versus Kershaw
With the Diamondbacks blowing through their top two pitchers to win the play-in game on Wednesday it seems likely the Diamondbacks will turn to Taijuan Walker who wasn’t even on the play-in game roster. Something that MLB needs to correct. If you want to limit the advantage of the wild card team, they need to put in their 25-man roster for the play-in game and the NLDS. I would be saying this even if the Dodgers were in the play-in game. Jon Weisman back in 2016 put me onto the loophole of the play-in game 25 man roster.
Proposed: Wild Card teams should have to set 25-man roster now through Division Series, instead of picking 25 players for just one game.
— Jon Weisman (@jonweisman) October 4, 2016
On paper, this was the best possible outcome for the Dodgers as Robbie Ray loomed like a potential season killer if the Dodgers had to face him two times in a five-game series. Now it looks as though he will start game two but probably have a very short least, and hopefully, there won’t be a game five for him to complete his mastery over the Dodgers.
Taijuan Walker will be another young pitcher with a great future who had a good year that will be making his first postseason start. That has not bode well for the pitchers he will follow this postseason with Severino and Gray combining for only four outs, eleven hits, and seven earned runs as starters for their respective teams.
Clayton Kershaw needs to pitch well enough to beat Taijuan Walker for the Dodgers to have any chance in this series. If he can’t do that, he will need to beat Robbie Ray in a game five. It would be a good idea to do the former so he won’t have to deal with the latter. Actually, I think he has to do the former just so he will have a shot at the latter.
I have no idea what to expect from Kershaw. He will be facing a very potent offensive team, one that has more firepower than the Dodgers. The gauntlet of Goldy/Martinez/Lamb is somewhat offset by Lamb not being able to hit lefthanders, but Martinez and Goldy feast on them so I’ll call it a draw. Iannetta is no slouch and neither is Pollock. Against left-hand pitching there is not an easy out in the Diamondback lineup.
The Diamondbacks are built to beat the Dodgers strength, the left-handed heavy rotation.
Player Split Year HR PA BA OBP SLG OPS J.D. Martinez vs LHP 2017 6 65 .309 .400 .745 1.145 Nick Ahmed vs LHP 2017 2 53 .396 .453 .625 1.078 Paul Goldschmidt vs LHP 2017 10 162 .311 .422 .591 1.013 Chris Iannetta vs LHP 2017 6 94 .300 .404 .563 .967 A.J. Pollock vs LHP 2017 7 152 .277 .329 .525 .854 Brandon Drury vs LHP 2017 3 139 .271 .302 .436 .738 Ketel Marte vs LHP 2017 2 76 .242 .342 .379 .721 David Peralta vs LHP 2017 2 148 .269 .338 .373 .711 Jeff Mathis vs LHP 2017 1 54 .213 .315 .362 .677 Adam Rosales vs LHP 2017 2 59 .200 .237 .382 .619 Daniel Descalso vs LHP 2017 2 90 .169 .289 .299 .588 Jake Lamb vs LHP 2017 5 156 .144 .269 .288 .557 Gregor Blanco vs LHP 2017 1 63 .217 .242 .283 .525 Chris Herrmann vs LHP 2017 2 47 .156 .191 .311 .503 Rey Fuentes vs LHP 2017 0 22 .190 .227 .190 .418
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Generated 10/5/2017.
However, Kershaw/Hill are not ordinary left-handers and it would behoove them to pitch like it.
Dodgers, Yesterday and Today 