Wild Card Race is Giants to lose
With the Giants playing so poorly that they have basically ceded the NL Western Division Championship to the surging Dodgers, can they even hold onto a Wild Card spot?
Every Dodger and Giant fan can tell you that the Giants won their last championship by getting into the play-in game but can they even get into that game this year?
As of right now the Giants have a 1/2 game lead over the NY Mets and a one-game lead over the lacklustre Cardinals. Pittsburgh and Miami are both headed backwards, and though they have a shot, it is such a slim one, I’m not going to bother with discussing them, except to say they both picked a bad time to go 2 – 8 over their last 10 games.
The Giants were, of course, the team with the best record in baseball at the all-star game and held a huge 6. 5 lead over the Dodgers in the NL West. Much has been written about how the Giants have been the worst team in baseball since the all-star break and that 6.5 lead over the Dodgers is now a five-game deficit. The funny part of this is that when you google “Giants worse record in the 2nd half” you have dates from August 22nd to Sept 8th. Which basically means that the panic button was hit on August 22nd, and has been held down for almost three weeks. Can a team that had to use Joe Nathan in one of the biggest games of the year in the bottom of the 9th be a team that has a reasonable shot at holding off the NY Mets and Cardinals?
the odds are statistically based, and they don’t include factors like “the Giants playing like absolute buffoons” and other technical details, but that’s probably a good thing. We hate the Giants right now because we have to watch them, but they probably aren’t this bad. The formulas and spreadsheets haven’t had to watch this unwatchable joy-prison night after night after night, so they don’t care. They’re just looking at a 1½-game advantage over the Mets with 24 games left, with 13 games remaining against under-.500 teams, and they’re liking the Giants’ odds.
Of course, Grant wrote this before that 1 1/2 lead over the Mets had shrunk to 1/2 game in 24 hours. This is what Grant wrote after that loss on Wednesday Night.
Disclaimer – Grant Bisbee is my favorite write these days and it is probably a good thing he writes about the Giants for SB Nation. If a hack had been at the helm during their three ring run it would have been a tad more annoying than it already was. I knew Grant was good but when he writes about his Giants as they tumble around as though they are in an endless dryer cycle he gets better and better. Who else could come up with the pain index?
So we have the basics. Yes, this Giants team is historically bad when trailing after eight innings. Yes, they’re historically bad when leading after eight innings. Just how rare is the combination?
For that, I developed the Pain Index, which is nothing more than:
———————————–
Losses when leading after 8 innings
–wins when trailing after 8 innings
————————————
So the higher the number, the more painful the ninth innings in that season. How do the 2016 Giants rank?
The Giants have the lead but it would be hard to say they the best shot. For one thing, they play the Dodgers six more times, and for the second thing. They are playing historically horrible.
Lucky for the Giants, one of the teams chasing them are the Cardinals, and the Cardinals are not exactly a safe bet to play well enough to even catch a team like the Giants. The Cardinals are 5-5 in their last ten games after being pounded by the Brewers tonight. The Cardinals have three more games with the Brewers, and then get to play the Cubs. Once they are done with the Cubs, they embark on a West Coast trip where they get to play the Giants head to head in a series that could decide who goes home first in October. If they are still in good shape after the Giant series, they have to go to Coors, and nobody wants to play the Rockies at home. At that point, they can breathe easy and finish the season at home against the Reds and Pirates.
The Mets are the one team in the Wild Card race that is playing very well. Buoyed by the return of Jose Reyes atop the lineup the Mets are 8 – 2 in their last 10 games and have climbed past the Cardinals and are sniffing right up the Giants wazoo. Over his last 100 at-bats, Reyes has a .862 OPS from the leadoff spot and has scored 21 times in those 24 games. The schedule also looks kindly toward the Mets. They start off this weekend at Atlanta, then head up to Washington. After that, they probably get the easiest paper matchups, as the Twins / Braves / Phillies (all lottery teams) play the Mets at home. The Mets end the season by playing Miami and Philly on the road. By that time Jose Fernandez will probably have been shut down unless the Marlins go on their own explicable run.
If I was handicapping this race I’d expect the Mets due to the schedule/pitching/lineup to end up at the top of the Wild Card race.
I’m having a harder time on picking between the Cardinals and Giants. The Cardinals have gotten great work from Gyorko and more recently Grichuk. Gyorko has hit 26 home runs in only 330 at-bats, a ridiculous hr/ab ratio for a middle infielder. Until you notice that Brandon Moss has 25 home runs in only 340 at-bats. But I’m not done. Randall Grichuk has 22 home runs in 359 at-bats. Are they playing in Coors? Grichuk was doing so poorly he was sent to AAA on two separate occasions this summer, but since returning on Aug 11th,he has an OPS of 1.066 with 10 home runs in 94 at-bats.
The Giants on the other hand still have a formidable rotation of Bumgarner/Cueto/Shark/Moore and a team that has Posey/Belt/Pence. If just doesn’t seem probable that they can be this bad for this long but they have been. Three weeks to turn it around and games against the Dodgers and Cardinals.
I’m not normally a fence sitter but as a baseball fan, I’m really looking forward to the Cardinal / Giant series later this month.
And if the Dodgers can knock them out of the postseason in that last series in SF so much the better. I just hope that when that last series comes around the Dodger lead is at least four games. Things look good right now for the Dodgers, but as baseball keeps reminding us:
shit happens
Dodgers two-headed platoon in RF is tearing it up in September
Right field was a black hole for the Dodgers in August, with Josh Reddick having one of the worst months in LAD history this century for an outfielder, and Yasiel Puig doing his thing in AAA. The only saving grace for the month was the work of Toles who came up on August 21st.
September is a different beast as Josh Reddick has shaken off whatever ailed him (bad luck) in August and has hit in all four games this month including his three starts. Puig has also hit in every one of his three Sept starts.
This is all SSS but still fun to look at. Puig has an OPS of 1.650 built upon a triple stat line of .444 | .538 | 1.111 which includes three walks in only 13 plate appearances.
Josh Reddick has been just as productive. Josh has an OPS of 1.500 built upon his triple stat line of .583 | .583 | .917. As you can see Josh has not drawn a walk this month. Remember all the talk of Josh’s bad luck in August(BABIP of .194). In Sept he is getting paid back in spades with a BABIP of .600. Puig , on the other hand, has a BABIP of only .250.
The two of them are a combined 11 for 25 for three walks, one double, and three home runs. Add in the seven RBI and the two headed right fielder is averaging a RBI a game. That’ll get it done, after the two combined to drive in all of one run in August.
In a season where the Dodgers have gotten good to excellent contributions from 1st base, 2nd base, SS, 3rd base, Catcher, CF, and even LF, it is good to see RF finely holding up its end of the bargain.
If it continues, watch out
An almost perfect Puig and a plethora of pitchers are too much for the Diamondbacks Ray of sunshine
Puig ruined my headline by making an out in his final at-bat but that was his only fault on a night when he reminded Dodger fans once again that they now have a potent right-hand bat back in the lineup against left-hand pitching.
For the second time in the past four games Puig blasted a home run against a left-handed pitcher, and once again was a big part of the reason why the Dodgers have beaten a left-hander two games in a row.
It certainly wasn’t the rest of the mostly right-handed lineup who succumbed to Ray. In only six innings Ray struck out twelve Dodgers, tying Johnny Cueto for striking out the most LAD while pitching six innings or less. Only 19 pitchers have struck out at least ten batters while pitching only six innings. Ray struck out every starting Dodger at least once except Puig. Until Puig hit his home run in the 6th inning the only other hit was a double by Cory Seager in the 1st inning. Puig cashed in Seager with a sacrifice fly tying the game at 1-1.
Brock Stewart won his first major league game, giving up one run in the 1st but doing just well enough to go five and qualify for the win. Once Stewart left, Dave Roberts decided to try to use everyone he had in the bullpen and almost succeeded. Seven pitchers followed Stewart, and they all played their part in keeping the Diamondbacks at one run and giving the Dodgers a 3 – 1 victory.
The whole inning took 17 minutes, which prompted a lot of “still faster than Pedro Baez!” jokes.
Add in the collapse of the Giant bullpen against the Rockies last night, and the Dodgers now have a season high five-game lead over the Giants. It was fun to hear how shocked he was that the Giants were going to Joe Nathan in such a critical situation. A feeling I’m sure that was shared by the majority of Giant fans.
Cory Seager ended with two hits, including his 39th double which has him tied for the NL league in doubles with Daniel Murphy. That was Cory’s 3rd straight multi-hit game after his mini-slump last week.
When starting, Toles just keeps on hitting and winning as Shelby gets shelled
Andrew Toles now holds a 12 – 2 record when Dave Roberts decides to start him. In a rare day off for Howie Kendrick, Roberts was able to find a spot for Toles in LF.
Well, not quite a day off for Howie, as Dave felt Howie needed to pinch hit even though he had a comfortable lead and a plethora of other pinch hitting options. Howie obliged with a double play giving him 23 GIDP for the season, which is good for 3rd in the NL and only one behind the leaders Martin Prado and DJ LeMahieu. If it seems that Howie is hitting into a lot of GIDP lately it is because he is. That was his 3rd GIDP in only 18 plate appearances in Sept.
Back to Toles. Toles had two more hits last night, giving him multiple hits in his last four starts since he was recalled in August. Toles is 5 – 0 in every start since being recalled. It is very clear to me that Dave Roberts knows exactly when to start Andrew Toles. He’s brilliant.
Dodgers maintain the four game lead over the Giants as the Giants finally managed to score in Coors and win.
Brock Stewart will be going tonight, and he’ll be the fourth straight Dodger rookie to make a start following Jose De Leon, Kenta Maeda, and Ross Stripling. This is the second time this year that four LAD rookies will have made consecutive starts when Stewart toes the mound.
Baseball America checks in on Cody Thomas
Raw tools galore for the ex-quarterback, Baseball America gives an update on his progress:
Cody Thomas, cf, Dodgers. The former Sooners backup quarterback has shown the rawness you’d expect from a player who skipped playing baseball in 2015 to focus on football, but he’s also shown athleticism and power. Thomas blasted his 15th homer—second in the Pioneer League to Ronnie Gideon—and had three hits in Ogden’s 12-10 win over Grand Junction (Rockies). Thomas has holes in his swing—he has struck out 83 times in 220 plate appearances—but the raw power and athleticism make him a player to dream on.
And this inside the park home run by Dansby Swanson as Shelby Miller was getting shelled once again can’t be sitting well with Diamondback fans.
You should skip this long and rambling post that goes nowhere fast
Just listened to some game yesterday (Bluejays?) and the announcer was lamenting how fans and general managers have come to love their prospects too much. How so many don’t work out and that why just a few years ago Dominic Brown was considered a can’t miss and now he’s simply AAA fodder.
And he has a point. But the flip side of his point is:
There are 28 position players 24 years or younger with an OPS+ > 100 with at least 200 PA in 2016. For context players with an OPS+ > 100 with at least 200 PA are 133.
How many players are 24 and under with at least 200 PA? 46
How many players are 24 and over with at least 200 PA? 274
I lost my point somewhere up there
The players who have been traded or released on this list are:
- Trea Turner
- Addison Russell
- Tommy Joseph
- Randall Grichuk
- Odubel Herrera
The rest of the list is a virtual who’s who of the best young players in baseball.
| Player | OPS+ | PA | Age | Tm |
| Mike Trout | 180 | 578 | 24 | LAA |
| Kris Bryant | 158 | 608 | 24 | CHC |
| Corey Seager | 146 | 584 | 22 | LAD |
| Manny Machado | 137 | 587 | 23 | BAL |
| Christian Yelich | 135 | 564 | 24 | MIA |
| Trea Turner | 134 | 213 | 23 | WSN |
| Mookie Betts | 133 | 623 | 23 | BOS |
| Carlos Correa | 126 | 582 | 21 | HOU |
| Bryce Harper | 123 | 541 | 23 | WSN |
| Nick Castellanos | 122 | 432 | 24 | DET |
| Joc Pederson | 120 | 408 | 24 | LAD |
| Trevor Story | 119 | 415 | 23 | COL |
| Gregory Polanco | 117 | 500 | 24 | PIT |
| Jorge Soler | 113 | 229 | 24 | CHC |
| Willson Contreras | 112 | 237 | 24 | CHC |
| Rougned Odor | 110 | 548 | 22 | TEX |
| Wilmer Flores | 110 | 322 | 24 | NYM |
| Francisco Lindor | 110 | 587 | 22 | CLE |
| Miguel Sano | 109 | 437 | 23 | MIN |
| Xander Bogaerts | 109 | 610 | 23 | BOS |
| Jose Ramirez | 109 | 516 | 23 | CLE |
| Max Kepler | 108 | 369 | 23 | MIN |
| Odubel Herrera | 104 | 561 | 24 | PHI |
| Addison Russell | 102 | 525 | 22 | CHC |
| Randal Grichuk | 101 | 378 | 24 | STL |
| Tommy Joseph | 101 | 283 | 24 | PHI |
| Tim Anderson | 101 | 324 | 23 | CHW |
I’m pretty sure the fans and general managers of those teams are quite happy they did not trade those players. And I’m pretty sure that the Padres would love to have Trea Turner back no matter how much they like Myers. I know Billy Beane would like to have Addison Russell back.
The Giants, however, made the right move, they parted ways with Tommy Joseph as part of the package for Hunter Pence.
I do think Trea Turner, Addison Russell, and Randall Grichuk could have a big say in the post season but it won’t be for the teams who traded them, it will be for the teams who traded for them.
Odubel Herrera gets his own little paragraph. Herrera was picked up as a rule five player from the Texas Rangers. I like Herrera because he reminds me of a past rule five pickup by the Phillies, someone named Shane Victorino who was plucked from the Dodgers as a rule five player during the brief Paul Depodesta reign. They are both CF, both have/had plus speed, and just enough power you have to play them honest. Both become starting CF in short order and were acquired as cheap as one can get acquired in major league baseball.
It would seem that teams who are keeping their young talent are keeping the right young talent.
But I’ll admit this article got a little too big for me and is going in circles. However, it is my circle so who cares.
Which takes us to these guys: Talk about cherry picking. These are the players 24 or younger, with at least 70 PA but < 200 PA. I had to find a way to talk about Andrew Toles.
| Player | OPS+ | PA | Age | Tm |
| Gary Sanchez | 200 | 126 | 23 | NYY |
| Andrew Toles | 191 | 71 | 24 | LAD |
| Kennys Vargas | 153 | 103 | 25 | MIN |
| Mike Zunino | 139 | 125 | 25 | SEA |
| Adam Frazier | 132 | 89 | 24 | PIT |
| Nick Franklin | 130 | 137 | 25 | TBR |
| Andrew Benintendi | 119 | 74 | 21 | BOS |
| David Dahl | 118 | 159 | 22 | COL |
| Alex Bregman | 117 | 173 | 22 | HOU |
| Steven Moya | 115 | 95 | 24 | DET |
| Mac Williamson | 109 | 115 | 25 | SFG |
| Jose Peraza | 108 | 148 | 22 | CIN |
| Ryon Healy | 108 | 176 | 24 | OAK |
| Jorge Polanco | 107 | 172 | 22 | MIN |
| Ronald Torreyes | 105 | 119 | 23 | NYY |
| Domingo Santana | 103 | 186 | 23 | MIL |
And a plethora of more young talent that is either just getting started in 2016, or are part time players. I think Sanchez, Benintendi, Dahl, Bregman, Peraza, Santana can safely look at full time at bats in 2017.
Funny list because Zunino and Franklin are on it. Two failed top prospects who are still so young they have failed and rebounded before their 25 birthdays. Good work.
The Dodger connection:
Andrew Toles, Jose Peraza, Ronald Torreyes
Toles was picked up by the LAD FO almost one year ago. It may turn out to be one of the best moves by this front office.
Jose Peraza was traded along with Scott Schebler for Trayce Thompson and Frankie Montas. Montas helped get the Dodgers Rich Hill and Josh Reddick.
Ronald Torreyes was a nice LAD acquisition and then they traded him for Rob Segedin. A trade that so far has benefited both teams and players. Torreyes though might be much more. He has impressed the Yankees enough they gave him a run at 3rd base and he didn’t disappoint. Chase Headly is back at 3rd, but Yankee observers noticed how much better Torreyes produced during his brief run. It will be curious to see if Torreyes really is just a utility player or much more.
And I’m done with the hitters. Can’t wait to do the pitchers
Dave Roberts puts Toles 11 -2 starting record on the line by – gasp, starting him
It is true, it has only been five games since Toles last started and jump started the Dodger offense in Colorado. Somehow Dave Roberts couldn’t figure out a way to get his bat into the starting lineup for any of the next five games even though he ended August as the best hitter on the team. None of that seemed to matter as the Giants kept on losing and the Dodgers got to play the Padres and now the Diamondbacks.
A naysayer would say that Toles is 11 – 2 as a starter because the Dodgers are a 1st place team. I’d reply the same Dodgers are 66 – 58 when Toles does not start which is not quite the same as 77 – 60.
Anyway, five games is long enough to cool any hot streak off, so I’m not expecting much tonight.
Jerry Doggone Doggett
As Vin Scully is about to sail into the sunset many are going to pay tribute to the man who has always been here since 1958, so I thought it would be a good time to remember the man he called his partner for 32 years, Jerry Doggett.
Jerry came with Vin to Los Angeles from Brooklyn, and so for many early LAD fans, it was his voice along with Vin’s that radiated from those transistor radio’s you are hearing so much about these days.
Jerry was as much a part of early LAD lore as Vin was, even if he wasn’t as celebrated.
This LA Times story about his retirement gives you the details about his announcing days
Jerry was a workhorse who much like Vin, Chick, Bob Miller, and Ralph Lawler never missed work. In fact, until his last year with the team, he had missed only one game and that was for his daughter’s graduation.
His first Dodger game with partner Vin Scully was in September of 1956 at the Polo Grounds. Before this season, when he missed eight games because of a sore throat, Doggett had missed only 1 game in 31 seasons.
When Jerry retired this is what Vin had to say:
Said Scully of his association with Doggett: “When you work every day with the same guy, it’s a marriage. The booth is very, very small, and it can stay the way it is or it can become suffocating. I always thought of Jerry as a dear friend, not just a guy I announce with.”
I can still remember when Jerry passed away and Vin had to tell the Dodger audience. We felt sad that Jerry had passed on but we felt even sadder for Vin because you could tell he had loved his announcing partner.
This LA Times story about his death tells the rest of the story.
“Jerry deserves every nice thing that can be said about him,” Scully said. “He was one of my closest friends and the best partner anyone could ever have.
“When we were on the road, we would spend all day and night together. We ate together, we played golf or walked around town together, we worked together and late at night we’d have a drink together. He was at peace with himself, and just being around him made me feel better.
“He never complained about not getting more of the limelight, he never showed any ego or any of that baloney. Jerry Doggett was just a terrific guy, and I will miss him forever.”
My memories of Jerry coincide with Vin. Many were enamored with Vin Scully but I was particularly fond of his partner. He wasn’t smooth, he was rough, he had an enthusiasm for the game much like Charley Steiner, but I don’t think he had as much trouble describing the play by play. I know many made fun of Jerry Doggett ( Larry Stewart ?) but I never thought it was fair, given how he was being compared to the best in the business. We all would suffer in comparison if we were compared to the best at what we do. I should remember that next time that Charley doesn’t quite meet my standards.
I think that Vin would call innings 1 – 3, and 7-9, with Jerry doing the middle work. Just like Vin, Jerry would call the game by himself. For those of us who grew up with a single play by play announcer handling the commercials, the color analysis, and everything else, these days of three person booths are usually two voices to many. If the right person is in the booth one voice is all you need, and for the Dodgers, it was always the right person in the booth whether it was Vin Scully or Jerry Doggett, or later Ross Porter and Don Drysdale.
I was just as happy when Jerry Doggett was calling the games as Vin. And to be honest it was nice to get a change up in styles during the game. Just as Don Drysdale and Ross Porter would add a different layer when they joined the broadcast team.
Time blurs everything, so I was surprised to find out when researching this story that Jerry retired in 1987. My mind thought it was in the late 70’s so I was pleased for whatever bizarre reason that he got to see the 1981 World Championship, and sad to see that he didn’t’ get to witness the 1988 World Championship.
When Jerry Doggett retired in 1987 and passed away in 1997 I didn’t have a way of saying thank you, so this was long overdue.
Thanks Jerry for being a good but not great announcer, for being Vin’s partner, and for being Vin’s friend.
I miss you, and man alive, I am sure going to miss your partner.
Below are some quotes from stories in the LA Times about Jerry Doggett:
This one letter to the editor mirrors my thoughts:
Dodger Fans Didn’t Forget Jerry Doggett
“Shame on The Times for burying Jerry Doggett on Page 8 of the section. Speaking for thousands of L.A. baby boomers, from 1958 all through the ’60s and ’70s, no matter what else we were listening to, Jerry Doggett was never less than the second-best announcer in baseball. In those pre-media-glut days, we may not have often heard announcers from other cities, but when we did, we always thought, “Jeez, Doggett’s better than that guy. And he’s their lead announcer? Poor fill-in-a-city.” Jerry, as Bob Hope would say, thanks for the memories.”
Four consecutive games Rookie rotation checks in once again
Per the Dodger pregame notes:
According to Stats, LLC, prior to last week, the Dodgers hadn’t pitched four consecutive rookie starters since they were in Brooklyn, Sept. 8-10, 1952 (Ken Lehman, Billy Loes, Ray Moore, Johnny Rutherford).
In a span of two weeks, the Dodgers will have four rookies make consecutive starts. Starting on Aug 27th, Urias, Stewart, Maeda, and Stripling did it the first time. This week with Jose De Leon starting the honors from yesterday he will be followed by Maeda, Stripling, and Stewart.
So while Kershaw, McCarthy, Kazmir, Wood, and Ryu are twiddling their fingers, the boys of summer are expanding the Dodger lead over the Giants.
And of course, the four rookie run will end with Kershaw in Miami on Friday.
yeah baby
What a season.
Dodgers, Yesterday and Today 