Ryu and Trayce working their way back to you Babe

Two key players who the Dodgers are hoping to contribute in 2017 but not counting on are doing their best to be parts of the World Champion effort of 2017.

Yoo Jee-ho reports that Hyun-jin Ryu claims to be pain-free and ready for spring training.

“Right now, I’d say I am in better shape than I normally would be at the start of spring training,” Ryu told reporters at Incheon International Airport. “I threw four bullpen sessions a day while training in Japan. I have no pain at the moment.”

Being pain-free before throwing consistently from the mound is a different beast all-together, but that is the first step. Some pitchers never even get to that step after undergoing all the surgeries that Ryu has had over the past two seasons.

Once Ryu shows up for spring training he will still need to answer two major questions.

  1. Can Ryu step up his pain-free progress to the point he can join a rotation?
  2. Even if Ryu is pain-free and shows he can make 100 pitches an outing, are those pitches going to be good enough to help a Dodger rotation?

There are many Ryu doubters and with good reasons. The pitchers who have come back from shoulder issues and continued to be as good as they were before the shoulder surgery is a small number. All Dodger fans are hoping the doubters are wrong and that Ryu can pick up where he left off in October of 2014.

The best big three this team has had in the 21st century might have been the 2014 version of Kershaw/Greinke/Ryu. On Sept 6th, Ryu pitched his last regular season major league gem. He would only pitch one inning the rest of the season but would come back on Oct 6th to pitch the Dodgers to a 1 – 1 tie over six innings in the pivotal game three of the NLDS. The Dodgers would lose that game 3 – 1 when Elbert and company gave up two runs in the 7th. It was the last time Ryu would pitch a major league game until last summer when he briefly showed up to pitch four innings.

Ryu was a joy to have on the team in 2013 and 2014. More than any Dodger trying to find their way onto the Dodger team in 2017, he’s the one I’m rooting for.

Trayce Thompson had his season cut short last year on July 10th. Acquired in the big three-way deal last winter he is the only player still remaining with the team from that trade. Trayce was supposed to offer the Dodgers a solid right-handed bat against left-hand pitching while being able to play every outfield position. He did play all over the outfield 32 in CF, 28 in RF, and 24 in LF.  He wasn’t the defensive savant we had been told about but he was adequate in CF, looked good in RF and LF. He has the speed, but not the instincts to be a good CF.  His bat against left-hand pitching is what didn’t fit the bill. In 2015 he punished left-hand pitchers with a .998 OPS. For the Dodgers that dropped to .708.

Thompson is coming back from a back injury and claims to be almost there.

He said he is now taking batting practice and has begun light jogging with no setbacks. Thompson said his target date to be 100 percent healthy is March 1, in time for Spring Training games to join a crowded outfield.

Supposedly the back started bothering him in Mid May. At that point, Trayce was looking like the future and present Dodger left fielder. Andre Ethier was out and it was Thompson’s job to claim. Then Puig got hurt and Trayce got to play RF everyday. On June 6th he got his OPS up to .925 and everything was great in La La land for Trayce. That was his peak, and from June 7th to the time he went on the DL he hit only .173 / .242 / .309 /.551.

When Trayce comes to spring training he has several things to prove.

  1. Is his problematic back healthy?
  2. Is he the guy who crushed LHP in 2015 or the guy who struggled against them in 2016?
  3. Can he beat out Ruf/SVS for a spot on the major league roster?
  4. Can he be an everyday outfielder for a contending team?
  5. If not an everyday outfielder can he be the main platoon player for Andre or Toles or Joc?

The Dodgers will be a better team if the 2015 White Sox and April/May/June Dodger version of Trayce is the better barometer of his ability. His brother has a trophy, if Trayce is that version, it will make the odds of him getting his own trophy, all that higher.

Dodgers get their Logan

MLB: Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays

Everyone can now put to rest who the Dodger 2nd baseman will be in 2017 as the Dodgers acquired Logan Forsythe from the Tampa Bay Rays. The one-time utility player for the San Diego Padres found a Justin Turner type renaissance with the Rays and has been the starting second baseman for the Rays the past two years.

Forsythe meets all the criteria the Dodgers were looking for.

Some 2016 Forsythe notes:

  • After the all-star break Forsythe high point OPS was .831 on Sept 11th.
  • He finished the season 14 for 80 which brought his OPS down to the final .778
  • He did have a one little and one big injury last year resulting in 127 games started
  • Missed four games due to back spasms in August
  • Hairline fracture of his left shoulder put him on the DL 5/14 – he returned 6/10

The price could be high as they sent Jose DeLeon to the Rays but it filled a huge hole. DeLeon will be very close to his Puerto Rican home as he hopes to make a name for himself in the tough AL East.

Here is the Dodger press release information:

LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers today acquired infielder Logan Forsythe from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for right-handed pitcher José De León.

 Forsythe, 30, has combined to slug 57 doubles, 37 homers and drive in 120 runs in 280 games with Tampa Bay over the past two seasons, including batting .264 with 52 RBI and setting career-best marks with 20 home runs, four triples and 76 runs scored as the Rays’ primary leadoff hitter in 127 games last year. In 2015, batting in the middle of the Rays’ lineup, Forsythe led Tampa Bay qualifiers in batting average (.281), on-base percentage (.359) and slugging percentage (.444), while posting a .299/.373/.599 slashline against left-handers. His slugging percentage against lefties (.599) ranked third in the American League in 2015, behind only Nelson Cruz (.673) and Josh Donaldson (.632).

Forsythe has a .255 career batting average with 55 homers and 203 RBI in 618 games in six big-league seasons with the Padres (2011-13) and Rays (2014-16) after being selected by San Diego in the first round (46th overall) of the 2008 First-Year Player Draft out of the University of Arkansas. The Tennessee native has primarily appeared at second base during the course of his career (.980 fielding percentage in 456 games), but has also seen work at third base (56 games), first base (27 games), shortstop (19 games) and outfield (16 games).

 De León, who was rated as the Dodgers’ No. 3 prospect by Baseball America, went 2-0 with a 6.35 ERA in four starts in his first big-league action in 2016. The 24-year-old native of Puerto Rico went 7-1 with a 2.61 ERA in 16 starts with Triple-A Oklahoma City last year and has posted a 23-13 career record with a 3.35 ERA in 67 games (64 starts) in four minor league seasons in the Los Angeles organization after being selected in the 24th round of the 2013 First-Year Player Draft out of Southern University.

Chris Thile and the new PHC show

Garrison Keillor gave up the Praire Home Companion show and now ponders giving up Christianity.

So I’ve been shopping around for a new religion to see me through the next four years. Too many of my fellow Christians voted for selfishness and for degradation of the beautiful world God created. I guess they figured that by the time the planet was a smoky wasteland, they’d be nice and comfy in heaven, so wotthehell. Anyhow, I’m looking around for other options.

While Keillor is searching for a new religion, taking Garrison’s position as host of PHC is Chris Thile, and we were lucky to catch the new show at the Pasadena Civic Auditorium this past Saturday. While many like minded folk were marching for a myriad of rights, Chris Thile and his special guests were entertaining those of us who didn’t make the trip to downtown Los Angeles. I will admit to feeling a bit guilty about being entertained instead of voicing our protests but I did buy these tickets a long time before the march was setup. Hell, I bought them before I even knew the nation would get trumped.

I’m glad I did, though, the show was excellent from beginning to end. Chris Thile is the master of the mandolin an instrument I have rarely heard, and I’ve never heard played like Chris Thile can play it. The new PRC show is more about music, but the old time radio players are still part of the show.

The band was excellent from bass legend Mike Elizondo to guitar virtuoso Julian Lage with drummer Ted Poor keeping it all in the beat.

Special guests were Ryan Adams, Kacey Musgraves, Justin Hurwitz, and Aoife O’Donavan. The highlight for me was the surprise appearance of Justin Hurwitz the recent winner of two Golden Globes for his scoring of La La Land. Aiofe and Thile collaborated on singing the two most well-known songs of the movie. 

The other interesting part was the birthday section where Thile and the band perform selections from those who had a birthday the previous or coming week. One of the birthdays was Dolly Parton’s so they performed 9 – 5.  I’m not the biggest Dolly fan but I had to laugh because we had just watched the movie 9 – 5 a few days before. A movie we had not seen since it had been in the theater’s a lifetime ago.

After the show, we had dinner across the street at El Chollo and socked down the baskets of chips with the table made guacamole. Once dinner was done we headed home just before the rains would hit. On the way home, what was on the radio? Why the Prairie Home Companion show we had just been a part of.

 

 

Education Education

Nice to read that my old working class college California State University Los Angeles is still doing good things for the middle and lower classes.

The California State college systems were the only colleges that I’d been able to afford or even get into for me.  Full-time employment while hitting college these working colleges are the lifeblood of California.  This report shows the data and how these state colleges all over the country are propelling low-income students into middle class.

As Ray Davies once sang “everyone needs an education” it still applies today.

Yes, the universities that educate students from modest backgrounds face big challenges, particularly state budget cuts. But many of them are performing much better than their new stereotype suggests. They remain deeply impressive institutions that continue to push many Americans into the middle class and beyond — many more, in fact, than elite colleges that receive far more attention.

Where does this optimistic conclusion come from? The most comprehensive study of college graduates yet conducted, based on millions of anonymous tax filings and financial-aid records. Published Wednesday, the study tracked students from nearly every college in the country (including those who failed to graduate), measuring their earnings years after they left campus. The paper is the latest in a burst of economicresearch made possible by the availability of huge data sets and powerful computers.

I could throw up quite a few quotes from this excellent article but I’d suggest reading the whole piece.

Now for something completely different

Right now the Dodgers options for second base are Enrique Hernandez, Chris Taylor, Willie Calhoun, and in theory Austin Barnes.

Ken Rosenthal chimes in recently on who the Dodgers might be targeting for second base now that the Dozier talks have cooled off. He mentioned names like

Most of the Dodgers’ preferences are not known, but they’ve spoken with the Rangers about infielder Jurickson Profar, sources said. Two other switch-hitting second basemen — the Phillies’ Cesar Hernandez and Nationals’ Wilmer Difo -– would be potential fits, but it is not confirmed that they actually are on the Dodgers’ radar.

Dave Cameron at Fangraphs even got involved.  He seems to think Profar of the Rangers would be a possibility.

Dustin Nosler of Dodger Digest thinks Javier Baez might be a good fit.

That Baez would be Javier Baez. The 24-year-old made a name for himself in the postseason with his glove, but got into the lineup more with Kyle Schwarber out for virtually all of the regular season. Still, he played in 142 games and compiled a 2.7 fWAR. He did that while having a below-average wRC+ of 94, which speaks volumes about his defensive mastery. Baez had 11 defensive runs saved at second base, which tied Robinson Cano for third-best in baseball. The rub is, he did it in 383 defensive innings (Cano had 1,376 1/3 innings). He was also a plus-defender at shortstop and third base, but those positions are, understandably, filled.

So the likely suspects from what I’ve read are:

Dozier, Kinsler, Profar, Baez, Forsythe.

Which pleases me because the player I’m thinking of hasn’t been mentioned by anyone so here is my take on a player that I think could be had and might be worth a gamble.

Problem with my view is that I think more like a small market team and so I research that way.

I’m looking for a right-handed hitting second baseman, under team control for at least two years, has some power, has speed, can hit left-handers, has shown signs of being more than the totality of his career so far.

When doing the research on the greatest LAD to ever play second base, Davey Lopes, his road to becoming the greatest LAD the second baseman continues to resonate with me. He was 28 before the fully formed Davey Lopes hit the major leagues and I’m sure he would have struggled in the major leagues if he been promoted sooner.  Lopes might have struggled so much that he probably would have been labeled a utility player and never gotten the opportunity he eventually got moving right into the starting second base gig in 1973.

When I do these exercises I’m not looking for the guy who already broke out, I’m looking for the guy I think has a reasonable chance to breakout.  Someone whose power is just now starting to show up.

Later I will use statcast for this exercise but today I’m simply using my gut and simple searches that met my above criteria.

For example:

Player A:

2015 – Age 22, 3rd Major League season, 219 BA, .291 OBA, .631 OPS, 10 steals in 355 PA. Career at that point was 636 PA, .239 BA, .298 OBA, .346 Slug, .644 OPS.  He had played 132 games at 3rd base, 109 games at SS, 58 games at 2nd base, and 50 games in the outfield.

Headed into 2016 no one thought he was anyone’s answer to an infield problem.

But he was exactly the answer. It took all summer but by August 1st he became the de facto starting 3rd baseman for the 2016 American League Champions. He earned the job by having a triple stat line of .293 / .354 / . 414 / .786. From that point on he was the catalyst for the Indians winning the AL Central and going to the World Series. Hyperbole you say?

Not really, Jose Ramirez hit .339 / .377 / .533 / .910 from August 1st to the end of the season.  He plugged a hole and in so doing changed the team dynamic.

He was every bit the Justin Turner of the American League. And no one saw it coming.

Who can be that guy in 2017?

I’m going to nominate this guy

Player B:

2015 – Age 24, basically first real major league season,  .243 BA / .257 OBA / .327 Slug /.584 OPS. He played 80 games at 3rd, 19 games at 2nd, 7 games at 1st, 6 games at SS. Just like player A, he was horrible at the beginning of his career.

2016 – Age 25, .272 BA, .302 OBA, .428 Slug, .730 OPS. He played 60 games at 3rd, 36 games in RF, 11 games at 2nd, 8 games in CF,  6 games at 1st, 3 games at SS, and 2 games in LF. Much like player A, he played everywhere. He also stole 34 bases while getting caught only seven times. This helped him to a decent 2.0 bWAR while garnering only 430 plate appearances.  He had the strange split of hitting .287 / .317 / . 489 as a 3rd baseman in 188 plate appearances but only .244 / .273 / .378 as a right fielder.  He also slugged 100 points higher against left-hand pitching.

Player B is Hernan Perez of the Brewers. As a minor leaguer,  he played more games at SS/2nd than anywhere else. He’s a middle infielder, not an outfielder, not a 3rd baseman.

He’s my pick to improve in 2017 that no one saw coming and who might be a better option than Logan Forsythe for 2017.  You could say if that is the case, why isn’t he starting at 2nd base for the Brewers? And I’d reply why was Justin Turner released by the Mets? Why was Jose Ramirez cast as a utility player headed into 2016? Why was JD Martinez released by both the Rays and Astros? Why were Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion blasting home runs in Toronto after their original teams didn’t know what they had?

Oh, he’s also only one of six players to have hit at least 13 home runs, stolen over 30 bases, and had an OBP below .305  in the 21st century: One year after Carlos Gomez did this at roughly the same age, Gomez was a two-time all-star and garnering MVP votes. Of course that partially due to his elite CF defense.

Just saying if Jurickson is on the Dodger rader, Hernan Perez should also be. He’s got more power, has more speed and is better at stealing bases, is still under team control for three years, and shouldn’t cost much in assets.

Later, we discuss Marwin Gonzalez

and here is statcast and the glossary for these new terms that will probably become commonplace this summer:

Player BBE Max EV (mph) Avg EV (mph) Avg FB/LD EV (mph)
Hernan Perez 283 108.2 89.2 90
Ian Kinsler 455 105.5 87.5 90.5
Logan Forsythe 344 109.4 90.7 93.4
Jurickson Profar 182 107.5 86.8 89.1
Brett Lawrie 207 109.8 90 92.9
Marwin Gonzalez 318 110.2 89.8 94.2

 

Player Max DST (ft) Avg DST (ft) Avg HR-DST (ft) Barrels
Hernan Perez 458 221 390 11
Ian Kinsler 417 234 381 18
Logan Forsythe 432 234 396 26
Jurickson Profar 415 191 395 6
Brett Lawrie 417 223 396 12
Marwin Gonzalez 440 210 392 19

 

 

A HOF Ballot that reflects my views

Last night I talked about the ex-Dodgers who got HOF votes and wondered why Gary Sheffield and Jeff Kent got such little support even though they clearly have enough credentials to get consideration.

I was reminded that each HOF voter only gets to nominate 10 players so when a plethora of viable candidates are on the ballot, someone is going to get left off.

With that in mind,  I decided to see what my ballot would look like and if I also would have left off deserving players.

This is who I would have voted for:

  1. Barry Bonds – arguably one of the top five hitters in baseball history deserves to be in the HOF even with the PED taint. We know how great he was before he tainted. This should be a no-brainer. I understand punishing him for cheating by making him wait one year, but that time has passed and any HOF without Bonds is crazy considering how loose the Bud Selig years were regarding PED use.
  2. Roger Clemens – I can’t stand Roger Clemens, but Rogers Clemens is a HOF pitcher by a considerable margin. This should also be a no-brainer for the voters.
  3. Pudge Rodriquez – The best AL catcher of his generation unless it was the guy who only got 17 votes. He caught in the major leagues from the age of 19 – 39. Even with such HOF players as Berra and Piazza he has the most hits/doubles/PA for any catcher in HISTORY. His defense however,  was his calling card and Pudge was dynamite behind the plate. There is a reason he has the 3rd highest bWAR in MLB catcher history even though his career OPS+ was only 106.
  4. Jeff Bagwell – the bar for HOF first baseman is very high. Mark McGwire did not make it. Norm Cash did not make it. Will Clark did not make it. Fred McGriff will not make it. Jeff Bagwell was a better version of Willie McCovey and Willie McCovey was great and in the HOF. Jeff had a faint PED taint, but just like Piazza you can’t keep him out based on supposition when you have been one of the ten best players at your position in the history of baseball.
  5. Rock Raines – Enough sabermetric experts have put forth his argument so I don’t need to do so. The best NL leadoff man of his era.
  6. Vladimir Guerrero – Vladimir is as borderline as they come for me. He was a great hitter, and fearsome presence, but when I see Dwight Evans, Reggie Smith, and Jim Edmonds on that outfield list of non-hall of famers I find it hard to vote for him. But I would vote for him because I would have voted for Dwight Evans, Reggie Smith, and Jim Edmonds long before I would have voted for Jim Rice or twenty other outfielders in the current HOF.
  7. Gary Sheffield – same place I put Vladimir. He’s not better than the three I mentioned above but he’s way better than so many already in. This list is full of baseball jerks (Bonds, Clemens, Sheffield, Kent) but he and Mike Piazza should be shaking hands at a HOF ceremony.
  8. Jorge Posada – I don’t know why Jorge has such little HOF support. He was a great hitting catcher on multiple World Championship teams. He ranks in the top ten with the best offensive catchers in just about every category. He had 6200 PA as a catcher so the DH thing does not hold water.  I don’t get how Raines is the sabermetric darling but Posada is not. He has the 3rd highest OBP for any catcher with at least 50 bWAR. All while hitting over 245 home runs as a catcher, something only seven other catchers in history have done.  Or better yet, read what Grant Brisbee has to say on the Posada HOF subject.
  9. Manny Ramirez – I’ve got room for him on my ballot and he’d get my vote, taint and all. One of the most dynamic hitters of his generation, he didn’t shy away from October he crushed it, hitting just as well against the best teams in baseball as he did the rest of the time.  By the time he tested positive in 2009 his HOF case was made.
  10. Jeff Kent – Kent rounds up the list. Defensive warts and all, the man played second base until he retired, and he did it because his bat was one of the most potent offensive bats to ever play second base. I made my case for Kent in the article yesterday.

So those are my ten.

You will notice only one pitcher and that was Roger Clemens. I can’t vote for Hoffman, I just think saves are the most overrated stat in baseball. Mariano Rivera will be the only closer I would have voted for the HOF.

Mussina and Schilling might have a case but not on my ballot this year when I only have 10 votes.

Fred McGriff was an excellent 1st baseman, he just falls out of the HOF case for me by a nose. It would not have bothered me if he made it, but I would not vote for him.

Yeah, I also left out Edgar Martinez. That is another whole kitNkabootle column

 

 

Ex-Dodgers receive 334 HOF votes

The complete list of 2017 HOF votes

  • Jeff Kent – 74 votes (16.7%)
  • Manny Ramirez – 105 votes (23%)
  • Gary Sheffield – 59 votes (13.3%)
  • Fred McGriff – 96 votes (21.7)
  • Casey Blake and JD Drew got zip
  • Dodger killer of dreams Matt Stairs got zip

Gary Sheffield has quite a HOF case and gets little recognition. As David Young noted on TBLA comments, Sheffield has over 500 home runs and 1000 XBH. When you look that up, the only players not in the HOF who did that were PED users Bonds/ Sosa/ Palmeiro, future HOF Thome, possible future HOF ARod, future HOF Pujols, future HOF David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez and Gary Sheffield. 

Jeff Kent has the following numbers to his credit:

For 2nd baseman in the history of baseball:

  • Most home runs by a second baseman with 377
  • Third most doubles with 560
  • Second most RBI with 1518
  • Second highest slugging % at .500
  • Tenth most hits at 2461
  • Ninth most runs at 1320
  • Fourth highest OPS at .855
  • Tenth highest OPS+ at 123

Kent may not have been much of a defensive 2nd baseman but when you are in the top ten of just about every offensive number, you might get a little more respect than 74 votes. Kent can take solace that the HOF simply doesn’t like second baseman. Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich know this all too well. 

Manny Ramirez should simply have retired after 2008 and I expect he’d have waltzed in.

 

 

LAD second base has a fine history, Part Two

Last week I took a look at the greatest LAD 2nd baseman using OPS+ to display the best seasons and best careers. 

Today we will use bWAR to examine the same seasons, and careers which will show huge differences since bWAR incorporates all of a players production, not just the offensive side.

As you can see, Davey Lopes dominates the top ten best season list by bWAR. Lopes holds four of the top ten seasons. What is fascinating about Davey Lopes is that he didn’t make the major leagues until he was 28. The converted minor league outfielder made second base his home from 1973 – 1981, ending his run with the championship 1981 team. To the surprise of many who followed the team, Lopes beat out the much younger and much more ballyhooed prospect Lee Lacy in the spring of 1973.

His successor Steve Sax makes the top ten with his 1986 season which was the best offensive season for a LAD second baseman. Sax stole a lot of bases but he got caught quite a bit. Lopes would steal 557 while getting caught only 114 times. Lopes was the best base stealer of his time.  By comparison,  Sax would steal 444 bases but get caught 177 times.

Jim Lefebvre had a brilliant 1966 season that doesn’t get recognized very much. His 24 home runs for a 2nd baseman in 1966 was a unique accomplishment at the time.

Before 1966 Very few 2nd baseman had ever hit 24 home runs in a season and that short list was filled with HOF 2nd baseman.

and in 1966, Jim Lefebvre joined that select group.

Before the injuries,  he was also a fine defensive 2nd baseman.

Player Age OPS+ bWAR PA Year
Davey Lopes 30 104 5.3 726 1975
Jim Lefebvre 24 126 5.2 610 1966
Jim Gilliam 34 121 5.2 605 1963
Steve Sax 26 137 4.8 704 1986
Davey Lopes 33 118 4.8 665 1978
Davey Lopes 34 128 4.7 692 1979
Davey Lopes 32 110 4.6 589 1977
Jim Lefebvre 23 106 4.6 631 1965
Charlie Neal 28 105 4.4 686 1959
Orlando Hudson 31 109 4.1 631 2009

Now for the most bWAR in a career as a LAD second baseman. As expected Davey Lopes sits on top of this list by a high margin. What is noteworthy is that second place is occupied by Steve Sax which means from 1973 – 1988 the Dodgers had their two best second baseman playing the game. It is no surprise that is also when the Dodgers went to five world series winning two World Championships.  One other note on that, after each World Championship the Dodgers replaced their 2nd baseman.

Jeff Kent slugged his way to 3rd place on this list but a 6.7 bWAR in four seasons is nothing to brag about. The fact that Orlando Hudson is on this list despite playing only one season shows you how slim the pickings have been at 2nd base when the name Lopes or Sax are not involved.

Player Age OPS+ b_WAR From To
Davey Lopes 27-36 105 32.1 1972 1981
Steve Sax 21-28 97 15.7 1981 1988
Jeff Kent 37-40 119 6.7 2005 2008
Ted Sizemore 24-31 88 6 1969 1976
Charlie Neal 27-30 92 5.7 1958 1961
Mark Ellis 35-36 92 5.5 2012 2013
Willie Randolph 34-35 101 4.7 1989 1990
Eric Young 25-32 93 4.2 1992 1999
Orlando Hudson 31-31 109 4.1 2009 2009
Delino DeShields 25-27 79 3.1 1994 1996
Chase Utley 36-37 92 2.9 2015 2016
Juan Samuel 29-31 97 2.5 1990 1992
Ron Hunt 26-26 107 2 1967 1967
Jody Reed 30-30 88 0.3 1993 1993

What does Puig/Harper/Stanton/Cutch have in common?

Andrew Simon of MLB.com thinks that all of these players are candidates to bounce back in 2017. That isn’t a very big limb to climb out on.

  • Harper is just one year removed from being the MVP.
  • Cutch is just one year removed from being a top five MVP four years in a row.
  •  Stanton is one year removed from two straight years with an OPS+ over 150.

Those three are about the sturdiest oak tree limb you could possibly climb out when forecasting improvement in 2017 from 2016.

Puig however, is a different limb. That is a tenuous limb, not made of oak, and could snap at any time. So let us see why he feels this way. Unlike the others,  it has been since June 12, 2015  that Puig stopped being a superstar and became an ordinary outfielder.

Simon says:

Yasiel Puig, OF, Dodgers
2016 wRC+: 102
Projected wRC+: 126

Puig just turned 26 in December, and as recently as 2014, he posted the fourth-highest wRC+ in the NL (148). That’s how a guy who has played 183 disappointing games since, and was demoted to Triple-A for a month last summer, ranks 16th in projected wRC+ between Buster Posey and Carlos Correa. As Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said on Wednesday, “I think the upside is significant.”

Health and approach at the plate both have been nagging issues for Puig, and there have been questions about whether he maintains the same athleticism and bat speed that he displayed early in his big league career. He still hit .297/.371/.486 and averaged a 92.0-mph exit velocity after returning from the disabled list last June 21 — before and after his time in the Minors.

OK, nothing insightful here about why he is a candidate other than the fact he once was a rising superstar and is still very young. Nothing about why he’s going to hit right-handers again except he did it once. I guess this is the Ron Shandler if you display a skill once you own that skill type of analysis.

I’m taking the leap of faith. I’m on this Puig train this year, and I hope to see this train chugging all year long as he shows his fans and ex-fans why he was the most exciting player in baseball for almost two years.

Updated Dodger Prospect Rankings

Baseball Prospectus chimed into today with their top ten Dodger prospect list. A few days ago I put out the lists by MLB, FanGraphs, Rotowire, and Baseball America. 

Today I’ll update that list with Baseball Prospectus and remove Rotowire for the time being.

Yadier Alvarez gets the BP top ranking, giving Alvarez two number one rankings now. Bellinger has either been number one or number two on these lists. There were no surprises on the BP list, the same ten players are on just about every list.

The biggest outlier is still MLB ranking Andrew Toles at 27 considering he’s in the top ten of every other list.

 

Prospect BirthDate AGE MLB BA FG BP Draft
Cody Bellinger 7/13/1995 21 1 1 2 2 4/2013
Jose De Leon 8/7/1992 24 2 3 4 3 24/2013
Alex Verdugo* 5/15/1996 20 3 4 3 4 2/2014
Willie Calhoun* 11/4/1994 22 4 5 6 8 4/2015
Yadier Alvarez 3/7/1996 20 5 2 1 1 Cuba
Yusniel Diaz 10/7/1996 20 6 7 9 5 Cuba
Walker Buehler 7/28/1994 22 7 5 6 1/2015
Jordan Sheffield 6/1/1995 21 8 10 10 1/2016
Gavin Lux 11/23/1997 19 9 9 12 9 1/2016
Austin Barnes 12/28/1989 27 10 10 11 Trade
Will Smith 3/28/1995 21 11 14 1/2016
Omar Estevez 2/25/1998 18 12 18 Cuba
Starling Heredia 2/6/1999 17 13 16 Dominican
Brock Stewart 10/3/1991 25 14 8 7 6/2014
Josh Sborz 12/17/1993 23 15 2/2015
Imani Abdullah 4/20/1997 19 16 17 11/2015
Chase De Jong 12/29/1993 23 17 Trade
Brendon Davis 7/27/1997 19 18 5/2015
Jacob Rhame 3/16/1993 23 19 6/2013
Jacob Scavuzzo 1/15/1994 23 20 21/2012
Ronny Brito 3/22/1999 17 21 Dominican
Johan Mieses 7/13/1995 21 22 Dominican
Kyle Farmer 8/17/1990 26 23 8/2013
Keibert Ruiz 7/20/1998 18 24 13 Venezuela
Edwin Rios* 4/21/1994 22 25 6/2015
Mitch Hansen* 5/1/1996 20 27 2/2015
Andrew Toles* 5/24/1992 24 27 6 8 7 Trade
Mitchell White 12/28/1994 22 28 15 2/2016
Trevor Oaks 3/26/1993 23 29 7/2014
Dustin May 9/6/1997 19 30 19 3/2016
D.J. Peters 12/12/1995 21 18 4/2016
Yaisel Sierra 6/5/1991 25 19 CubanFA