Josh Wilker the author of Cardboard Gods, The Book finished the best series he’s ever done which is saying a lot since everything he writes is spellbinding. It is hard to write after reading Josh, his skill is so impressive, and his words bring to life imagery unlike any other. Normally his stories leave me enthralled but this last series left me shaken. Follow the links, and enter a world you’ve never seen before.
This new series deals with death in Josh’s unique way of looking at the world and it came to close to the anniversary of the passing away of William. I knew people who have died in simple accidents in which the smallest part of time sealed their fate, loved ones who have been taken by disease, and Grandparents taken by time just like Josh wrote about. In time all of you will experience the same thing. The stories left me pondering not my fate but those around me. Time passes so quickly that it is shocking to think it was already 3 years ago. In another year William will have been gone longer then he lived. Outside of my family, no one has had the impact on my life that little William did. Perceptions changed and I felt more urgency to my life then ever before while also being unable to get back into the flow of life for quite a while. This urgency is getting defeated by the sands of time as they flow through my fingers faster and faster, no matter how hard I try to staunch the flow I feel myself being pulled into a quagmire.
Growing old does not really effect me, but it seems to effect all those around me. I feel like I’m staying static, as everyone ages either in front of me or more times then not somewhere else. My grandparents have been gone for years now and now my beloved parents are moving into the same space that my grandparents once inhabited. My oldest niece is now 30, my youngest niece is about to become a teenager and while I know they need to grow, every time I see the growth, I’m left wondering what the hell happened. My friend’s kids are growing faster then weeds and since none of them live in Los Angeles I’m going to miss most of it just like I missed two of my brothers families growing up. I’ll never get to see the nuances of their childhood and it pisses me off. Bev and Chuck have two great kids but I’m just some guy who stops by for the night when I’m able to stop by San Francisco on the way to Ferndale. Mark and Keri have two wonderful children and I’ve only been able to see them once, soon they will be in school if they aren’t already. Byron and Carmen have added Adam with a new addition on the way and Julia the apple of my eye will become a stranger all over again. I need to visit all of them but how can I when they are spread all over the country? It takes time to learn what makes a child’s heart tick and time is not something I have.
I’ve always embraced the new baseball season with its slate wiped clean and wonderful new stories ready to unfold before our eyes. Each spring I seem to need the new baseball season more then the last. It is the only thing I don’t mind going into the record books. Even as I look forward to the 1st spring training game, I know the season will be over in 7 or hopefully 8 months. It will go so fast that by the end you will wonder how it is November already. With much ado the Dodgers are going to be celebrating their 50th anniversary in Los Angeles. How many are still with us who witnessed the 1st game? Are they still fans, do they still watch Vinny in their rest homes? Do they have someone to share the joy of baseball with? I expect they look at this 50th anniversary and wonder what the hell happened.
Baseball is timeless, and while I feel the pull of time trying to bring me down, I can grasp onto the rope that a new season provides and with the few muscles I still have, I can pull myself out of my quagmire and look forward to the unique journey that each new season provides.Were taking the afternoon off
Rymer Liriano tries to get his career back
You could understand if Rymer Liriano felt apprehension as he got ready to play the first game of the spring against the Dodgers.
On March 21st, almost a year ago, Rymer Liriano was doing his best to make the Brewer opening day roster and begin the next stage of his career. One Dodger Matt West fastball later his face was crushed and his Brewer career over.
Liriano was once a fairly highly touted prospect in the Padre organization, rising as high as 49 in the 2012 Baseball America prospect rankings. That would put him on par with Alex Verdugo prospect ranking wise. Baseball prospectus had him as high as 39. Injuries kept Liriano from meeting those expectations and the Padres released him after the 2015 season. The Brewers scooped him up, and many expected him to make the Brewer team in the spring of 2016.
With his face crushed, Liriano lost all of the 2016 baseball season, and the Brewers released him in October. The Chicago White Sox picked him up and he hopes to restart his career with a team in full rebuild mode.
I only write about this because it just struck me yesterday as I was watching the first spring Dodger game how quickly these players come and go. Yesterday news is exactly that. One errant pitch is all it takes to change a career arc.
One pitch.
Bet no one even knows where Matt West is these days.
NFBC – Team Three – Machado Mania
In my third draft, I had the ninth pick. This league is different from my first two. It is still NFBC but only twelve teams, and only thirty rounds. We will use FAAB to add/remove from the roster after the season starts. That changes the drafting strategy as you can’t simply load up on all the backup closer options, you need to make sure you draft some bonafide closers.
Machado is one of my favorite players so I wanted one league where he was on my team. Having the ninth pick I felt fairly confident he would to me. Especially when the first pick was Trea Turner instead of Mike Trout. There is almost no way that is going to work out for that team but hats off for trying something different.
This draft is done on-line with all league owners present with only 30 seconds between picks so you have to work fast.
Machado did fall to me so I had my pick. Coming back around I wanted a shortstop but I believe in Carlos Correa a little more than Cory Seager so I snagged Correa. With Machado, I now had either the two best shortstops or a 3rd/SS combo. I was shocked to see Encarnacion available to me with my 3rd pick so I scooped him up. With that kind of start to my offense, I could concentrate on pitching.
Picked up Archer with the 5th pick to anchor the rotation and Seung Hwan Oh as my main closer.
I wouldn’t have taken a 2nd baseman but Kinsler fell to me in the 6th so now I had a full infield. Coming back around for the 7th pick I got Jose Abreu. I finished up my top ten with Kyle Seager, Tanaka, and Cain.
Damn, this was shaping up to be a great draft. Now all I had to do was not screw it up.
Players who I coveted late and got were Carlos Gomez (12th round), Gausman (15th round), Puig (20th round), Hunter Renfroe (22nd round). Neil Walker fell to me in the 25th round. That is just crazy.
Same players on all my teams
Cameron Rupp (23rd round)
Brandon Finnegan (28th round)
The only Dodgers I have on this team are Puig and Alex Wood who I took with the 30th pick. Urias went later in the draft (15th round) than the others and I could have taken him instead of taking my first catcher Martin the 14th.
Dodger Draft notes: Three Dodgers went in the 9th round Hill, Grandal, and Maeda
Rotation:
Kershaw was the 6th pick
Kenta in the 9th
Hill in the 9th
Urias in the 15th
McCarthy 28th
Wood in the 30th (Me)
Ryu in the 27th
Kazmir – not drafted
Brock Stewart – not drafted
Ross Stripling – not drafted
Bullpen:
Jansen in the 4th
Dayton – not drafted
Pedro Baez – not drafted
Romo 34th – not drafted
Infield:
Seager in the 2nd (24th overall)
Turner in the 12
Grandal in the 9th
Gonzalez went in the 18th (latest I’ve seen for him)
Forsythe in the 22nd
Outfield:
Joc in the 18th
Puig in the 20th
Toles – not drafted
Andre – not drafted
Gutierrez – not drafted
Among my three drafts so far I like this team the most. We shall see.
The ranking comes via the Rotowire projection simulator for 5×5.
| Rnd | Rank | First Name | Last Name | Team | Position | S/B |
| 1 | 8 | Manny | Machado | BAL | SS | S |
| 2 | 18 | Carlos | Correa | HOU | MI | S |
| 3 | 17 | Edwin | Encarnacion | CLE | 1B | S |
| 4 | 74 | Chris | Archer | TB | SP | S |
| 5 | 58 | Seung Hwan | Oh | STL | Closer | S |
| 6 | 32 | Ian | Kinsler | DET | 2B | S |
| 7 | 69 | Jose | Abreu | CWS | Cor | S |
| 8 | 43 | Kyle | Seager | SEA | 3rd | S |
| 9 | 64 | Masahiro | Tanaka | NYY | SP | S |
| 10 | 85 | Lorenzo | Cain | KC | OF | S |
| 11 | 63 | Stephen | Piscotty | STL | OF | S |
| 12 | 249 | Carlos | Gomez | TEX | Util | S |
| 13 | 133 | A.J. | Ramos | MIA | Closer | S |
| 14 | 241 | Russell | Martin | TOR | C | S |
| 15 | 151 | Kevin | Gausman | BAL | SP | S |
| 16 | 148 | Manuel | Margot | SD | OF | S |
| 17 | 226 | Rajai | Davis | OAK | OF | S |
| 18 | 171 | Jerad | Eickhoff | PHI | SP | S |
| 19 | 203 | Anthony | DeSclafani | CIN | SP | S |
| 20 | 267 | Yasiel | Puig | LAD | OF | S |
| 21 | 254 | Neftali | Feliz | MIL | Closer | S |
| 22 | 80 | Hunter | Renfroe | SD | Bench-OF | B |
| 23 | 496 | Cameron | Rupp | PHI | C | S |
| 24 | 189 | Zach | Davies | MIL | SP | S |
| 25 | 181 | Neil | Walker | NYM | Bench-2b | B |
| 26 | 208 | Jeremy | Hellickson | PHI | Bench-SP | B |
| 27 | 434 | Travis | Jankowski | SD | Bench-OF | B |
| 28 | 276 | Brandon | Finnegan | CIN | Bench-SP | B |
| 29 | 230 | Matt | Duffy | TB | Bench-SS | B |
| 30 | 487 | Alex | Wood | LAD | Bench-SP | B |
Can Puig measure up to past LAD age 26 seasons?
The LAD have quite a history of breakout age 26-year-old seasons for outfielders. I remembered about Kemp and Mondesi but had forgotten about Pedro and Frank Howard until today. When I created this list, little did I expect to see the name of Kal Daniels. For some reason, I thought he was much older when we acquired him from the Reds.
Damn, so much talent, such bad knees.
Heck, even Willie Crawford had a great age 26-year-old season.
Puig is entering his age 26 season, can he crack this tough group? Unlike almost everyone on this list Puig was already brilliant but that was three years ago. In the roto world, Puig was a number one draft pick in the spring of 2014, now he’s being drafted from round 15 – round 22. Most have given up on him being an impact player. That is when I like a player most. When the majority have passed on and are looking at the shiny new toy, just as Puig had been three years ago.
Seems like just yesterday that Matt Kemp was the toast of Dodger fans after losing the MVP to the cheating Ryan Braun . They were begging the McCourt group to sign him to a long-term extension and Ned obliged. Now he’s regularly made sport of as having a horrible contract. That wall in Colorado and that jog home changed the Kemp landscape forever.
Before Mike Piazza showed up, I always thought Pedro Guerrero hit the ball harder than any LAD I’d ever seen. I would have loved to have seen his exit velocity.
Kal Daniels had a swing of beauty. I can always remember Orel saying “I don’t care if he’s a statue in left field give me that bat in the lineup”. Or something close to that. But his knees ended his career by the age of 28. Crazy.
Never saw Frank Howard as a Dodgers but I sure saw Hondo in Washington where he became my favorite player.
Until Yasiel Puig showed up, Raul Mondesi owned the crown for most athletic right fielder the Dodgers ever grew on the farm. Power/Speed/Arm, Mondesi had it all and at age 26 he put it all together.
Willie Crawford owns the distinction of playing for the Dodgers at the age of seventeen, and it only took him nine more years to have his greatest season.
Andre quietly had three straight great seasons starting with his age 26 season.
Stan Javier was a part time player but he made the most of his 321 plate appearances.
Ron Fairly put up a .738 OPS but back in 1965 that was good enough for an 115 OPS+
Milton Bradley had a solid inaugural season for the Dodgers as a 26-year-old.
Player OPS+ PA Year HR BB BA OBP SLG OPS Matt Kemp 172 689 2011 39 74 .324 .399 .586 .986 Pedro Guerrero 156 652 1982 32 65 .304 .378 .536 .914 Kal Daniels 155 526 1990 27 68 .296 .389 .531 .920 Frank Howard 150 459 1963 28 33 .273 .330 .518 .848 Raul Mondesi 140 670 1997 30 44 .310 .360 .541 .901 Willie Crawford 140 543 1973 14 78 .295 .396 .453 .849 Andre Ethier 132 596 2008 20 59 .305 .375 .510 .885 Stan Javier 119 321 1990 3 37 .304 .384 .399 .783 Ron Fairly 115 654 1965 9 76 .274 .361 .377 .738 Milton Bradley 108 597 2004 19 71 .267 .362 .424 .786 Mike Marshall 108 362 1986 19 27 .233 .298 .439 .738 Bill Buckner 105 680 1976 7 26 .301 .326 .389 .716 Todd Hollandsworth 104 287 1999 9 24 .284 .345 .448 .793 Willie Davis 102 653 1966 11 15 .284 .302 .405 .708
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/24/2017.
Getting Puigy – LAD OF leaderboard <= age 25
With Puig entering his age 26 season, I wanted to take a look at how he looked among the LAD outfield leaderboard for his age. Using the data from the Baseball Reference play index the following tables are for LAD outfielders 25 or younger.
The hit table has Puig number six, just eight above Mike Marshall, and a good 52 below Raul Mondesi whom he’s often compared too. Tommy Davis fresh off his dynamite 1962/1963 seasons is the hit king leader. Matt Kemp made a good show for 3rd place.
| Player | From | To | Age | H |
| Tommy Davis | 1959 | 1964 | 20-25 | 799 |
| Willie Davis | 1960 | 1965 | 20-25 | 724 |
| Matt Kemp | 2006 | 2010 | 21-25 | 645 |
| Bill Buckner | 1969 | 1975 | 19-25 | 644 |
| Raul Mondesi | 1993 | 1996 | 22-25 | 499 |
| Yasiel Puig | 2013 | 2016 | 22-25 | 447 |
| Mike Marshall | 1981 | 1985 | 21-25 | 439 |
| Willie Crawford | 1964 | 1972 | 17-25 | 377 |
| Frank Howard | 1958 | 1962 | 21-25 | 355 |
| Todd Hollandsworth | 1995 | 1998 | 22-25 | 283 |
How about home runs? Matt Kemp has the lead in Home Runs. Willie Davis just beats out Kemp for the lead in Doubles, and the 3-Dog leads in triples. Puig is 7th in Home Runs.
| Player | 2B | 3B | HR |
| Matt Kemp | 107 | 24 | 89 |
| Tommy Davis | 97 | 20 | 83 |
| Mike Marshall | 77 | 3 | 71 |
| Frank Howard | 51 | 11 | 71 |
| Raul Mondesi | 93 | 22 | 70 |
| Willie Davis | 109 | 35 | 66 |
| Yasiel Puig | 84 | 16 | 57 |
| Willie Crawford | 61 | 21 | 40 |
| Bill Buckner | 93 | 10 | 31 |
| Todd Hollandsworth | 54 | 10 | 24 |
How about OPS? Hondo Howard makes his appearance on top of the leaderboard. Puig just nudges out Mondesi for 2nd place.
| Player | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| Frank Howard | 0.282 | 0.333 | 0.51 | 0.843 |
| Yasiel Puig | 0.287 | 0.361 | 0.472 | 0.833 |
| Raul Mondesi | 0.295 | 0.331 | 0.501 | 0.832 |
| Matt Kemp | 0.285 | 0.336 | 0.472 | 0.808 |
| Mike Marshall | 0.275 | 0.334 | 0.46 | 0.793 |
| Tommy Davis | 0.304 | 0.338 | 0.451 | 0.79 |
| Willie Crawford | 0.252 | 0.33 | 0.401 | 0.731 |
| Todd Hollandsworth | 0.269 | 0.32 | 0.408 | 0.728 |
| Willie Davis | 0.267 | 0.304 | 0.406 | 0.709 |
| Bill Buckner | 0.286 | 0.317 | 0.377 | 0.694 |
So that is how Puig has done so far at age 25.
As we head into 2017, he is heading into his age 26 season. What does he need to do to move up the leaderboards? It will be a tall task because Matt Kemp went off at age 26, as did Howard, and Mondesi. Matt Kemp now has a 28 point home run lead over Mondesi. Puig should pass Willie Davis and hopefully Ron Fairly. If he notches 26 or more he can catch Tommy Davis, and if Puig does that, Dodger fans will be partying in October.
| Player | 2B | 3B | HR |
| Matt Kemp | 140 | 28 | 128 |
| Raul Mondesi | 135 | 27 | 100 |
| Frank Howard | 67 | 12 | 99 |
| Mike Marshall | 88 | 3 | 90 |
| Tommy Davis | 98 | 21 | 83 |
| Willie Davis | 140 | 41 | 77 |
| Ron Fairly | 111 | 19 | 62 |
| Yasiel Puig | 84 | 16 | 57 |
| Willie Crawford | 87 | 23 | 54 |
| Pedro Guerrero | 55 | 9 | 53 |
| Andre Ethier | 90 | 14 | 44 |
| Bill Buckner | 121 | 14 | 38 |
| Todd Hollandsworth | 66 | 12 | 33 |
How about age 26 OPS? Hey look, a Pedro Guerrero sighting. Oh man, did Pedro go off at age 26. Maybe the best age 26 season ever for a LAD outfielder. Until you see what Matt Kemp did at age 26. Wow, I may have to do an age 26 look, these guys were banging. Pedro, Kemp, Mondesi all put up a plus .900 OPS at age 26. Frank Howard wasn’t dicking around, his age 26 OPS of .848 in 1963 was good for an OPS+ of 150. I guess I know what I’ll be writing about next.
| Player | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| Pedro Guerrero | 0.305 | 0.366 | 0.502 | 0.868 |
| Raul Mondesi | 0.299 | 0.339 | 0.511 | 0.85 |
| Matt Kemp | 0.294 | 0.35 | 0.496 | 0.846 |
| Andre Ethier | 0.299 | 0.364 | 0.482 | 0.846 |
| Frank Howard | 0.28 | 0.332 | 0.512 | 0.844 |
| Yasiel Puig | 0.287 | 0.361 | 0.472 | 0.833 |
| Tommy Davis | 0.303 | 0.337 | 0.448 | 0.785 |
| Mike Marshall | 0.268 | 0.328 | 0.456 | 0.784 |
| Ron Fairly | 0.27 | 0.361 | 0.402 | 0.763 |
| Willie Crawford | 0.262 | 0.346 | 0.413 | 0.759 |
| Todd Hollandsworth | 0.272 | 0.325 | 0.416 | 0.741 |
| Willie Davis | 0.27 | 0.303 | 0.406 | 0.709 |
| Bill Buckner | 0.289 | 0.319 | 0.38 | 0.699 |
Fangraphs looks at Puig
Eno Sarris at Fangraphs took a look at Puig and who is comps might be.
Let’s be pessimistic! Let’s cut off those good 2013 and 2014 seasons and focus on the last two years. In those years, he walked 7.4% of the time, struck out 20.6 % of the time, and hit for a .260/.323/.425 line that was 7% better that league average. That’s been paired with negative defensive value — not terrible work with the glove, as he’s ranged between -1 and -3 in that category, but below zero.
Man, I sometimes wonder about defensive metrics. At times last year, I thought Puig played a great right field, and I have a hard time coming to grips with the idea he was below average in right field. I guess those early season sun troubles weighed heavily.
Anyway, I liked the offensive comps, Pedro Guerrero would work fine for me in any Dodger universe given he was one of my favorite Dodgers to ever watch swing a bat.
I’ve always held that Puig has a chance to be something akin to Roberto Clemente. That usually gets a guffaw from anyone who hears or reads that but let me make a small case. Clemente was a HOF but most don’t know the history of Clemente. He started playing when he was 20 but it was not until he was 27 that he would string together the success that has made him a household baseball name.
From age 20 – 27, Roberto only had an OPS+ of 105 even after amassing 4300 plate appearances. At age 26 Roberto was one of the top five players in the game, finally having the breakout season that many had predicted for him. But the following year, in 1962 Roberto would fall back to being just above average. Puig was one of the best players in the game in 2013 and 2014 before falling back to the disappointing levels of 2015 and 2016.
The similarities:
- From neighboring islands Cuban and Puerto Rico
- Both signed by the Dodgers
- Right handed Right fielders
- Boasting the best arm of their era
- Early maturity issues
- Both struggled after a quick peak
- Massive charisma
- Injuries
- More of a hitter than a slugger
- Not much for taking the walk
| Player | Age | PA | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS |
| Puig | 22-25 | 1751 | 84 | 16 | 57 | 30 | 20 |
| Clemente | 20-27 | 4374 | 191 | 67 | 75 | 32 | 30 |
| BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | |
| Puig | 153 | 361 | 0.287 | 0.361 | 0.472 | 0.833 | 133 |
| Clemente | 209 | 459 | 0.3 | 0.334 | 0.434 | 0.768 | 105 |
Most only remember Clemente as the HOF hero who died trying to help his fellow man, but in the beginning, he had his issues with management and throughout his career was labeled injury prone. This is the excellent sabr bio on Clemente.
Phil Musick, a reporter who covered the Pittsburgh Pirates during the final years of Clemente’s career, said, “He was anything but perfect. He was vain, occasionally arrogant, often intolerant, unforgiving, and there were moments when I thought for sure he’d cornered the market on self-pity. Mostly, he acted as if the world had just declared all-out war on Roberto Clemente, when in fact it lavished him with an affection few men ever know.”
However, Musick added, “I know that through all of his battles . . . there was about him an undeniable charisma. Perhaps that was his true essence–he won so much of your attention and affection that you demanded of him what no man can give, perfection.”51
Sure the odds are crazy high that Puig never comes close to approaching what Clemente did, but in his favor is the fact, at his age, he has already accomplished more than Roberto. Puig just needs to get back on that track he was on when he was the most electrifying player in baseball.
One other fun read if you are interested. What would have happened if Clemente had stayed a Brooklyn Dodger?
Clemente won two World Series championships with the Pirates during his career. If he stayed with the Dodgers, Clemente had the opportunity to garner at least a half-dozen rings, potentially making him one of the most decorated players of his generation. The bountiful Dodgers knew that when they signed Clemente in Puerto Rico that they were going to have a tough time holding him in the minor leagues while their core players aged. If Clemente spent his entire career as a Dodger, he could have certainly put their dynasty on par with the Yankees. However, the fans of Pittsburgh may never have known the spirit of Clemente that resonated far beyond the two championships he brought to the Steel City.
Read more at http://thesportspost.com/baseball-history-clemente-brooklyn/#284ygPEZSmPUFE7R.99
Building the LAD bullpen with BPV
One of the biggest questions headed into spring is who will comprise the LAD bullpen. Last week we looked at who the best options for the rotation were based on the BPV formula used by Baseball HQ to determine skills levels of pitchers.
Again, this is how the BPV formula is calculated:
Pitching BPV: ((Dominance Rate – 5.0) x 18) + ((4.0 – Walk rate) x 27) + (Ground ball rate as whole number – 40)
This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors. In tandem with a pitcher’s strand rate, it provides a complete picture of the elements that contribute to a pitcher’s ERA, and therefore serves as an accurate tool to project likely changes in ERA. BENCHMARKS: A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success. The elite of the bullpen aces will have BPV’s in excess of 100 and it is rare for these stoppers to enjoy long term success with consistent levels under 75.
Today we will use the same formula to take a look at the bullpen. Remember, these BPV values are based on BaseballHQ statistical projections for 2017.
Yeah, Jansen is elite. Among relief pitchers, Andrew Miller is the only pitcher with a higher projected BPV.
As you might have suspected, Grant Dayton was special last year with a 2016 BPV of 189 which was one of the ten best in baseball last year. They see some regression but his 152 BPV would still put him among the top 20 relief pitchers in baseball.
I included Blanton on the chart because he still might be on the Dodger radar and if he isn’t, how does Romo compare? If the Dodgers choose Romo over Blanton it appears they choose wisely. The best year skill set wise was 2015, but he was unable to replicate that elite level as a Dodger. He had his uses but Romo has been consistently good for years.
For context, the Dodgers have three of the top twenty relief pitchers in baseball in BPV. Jansen is number two, Dayton is 16th and Romo 17th.
That is a good start to a bullpen.
Following those three is the maligned Pedro Baez. His skill set puts on the same level as Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, and he just makes the top fifty.
That is the good news.
I think Alex Wood would be a welcome addition to this bullpen if any two of Kazmir/McCarthy/Ryu can crack the rotation. My own personal thought is that both Wood and McCarthy could transition to the bullpen and put up great numbers but I’m not as sure about Kazmir but that is another column.
Liberatore would have been elite if we had run this in June of 2016 and given how he pitched poorly while in pain before getting shut down, I’m more inclined to believe he has a better skill set than is showing up here.
Hatcher is out of options and would appear to be fighting Fields for his spot on the roster. Fields has long shown solid skills with three years runnings of 130 plus BPV. Hatcher was neck and neck with Fields in BPV for 2014 and 2015 so given the problems that Hatcher had physically and possibly mentally in 2016 I would think they are fairly evenly matched skill set wise. Since one has options, and one does not, if Hatcher shows something this spring, I will change my mind from my spring battle thread and give the edge to Hatcher.
Avilan is also out of options and last year put up a BPV of 136. For some reason the projections for Avilan in 2017 are horrible and I don’t know why. Everyone else is consistent in 2017 with what they did in 2016 but Avilan is expected to show major regression.
We remember Morrow as the pitcher with all the promise back in Toronto but skill set wise, he has had one good season in his last five. Still worth an NRI, but I’m not expecting him to show much.
As great as Dayton is expected to be, he might fall victim to a numbers crunch and not make the opening roster. It might come down to how Alex Wood is handled.
| Lastname | Firstname | Age | BPV 2016/2017
|
xERA |
| Jansen | Kenley | 29 | 214/206 | 2.46 |
| Dayton | Grant | 29 | 189/152 | 3.13 |
| Romo | Sergio | 34 | 135/151 | 3.08 |
| Baez | Pedro | 29 | 130/126 | 3.36 |
| Fields | Joshua | 31 | 132/123 | 3.47 |
| Nuno Be Gone | Vidal | 29 | 109/100 | 4.06 |
| Liberatore | Adam | 30 | 99/96 | 3.8 |
| Blanton | Joe | 36 | 94/95 | 3.88 |
| Hatcher | Chris | 32 | 68/89 | 3.83 |
| Avilan | Luis | 27 | 136/48 | 4.76 |
| Brandon | Morrow | 32 | 57/15 | 6.36 |
Time waits for no man
I wrote this almost eight years ago and as I was re-reading it, most of it still applies today. The new baseball season is about to start with spring training games less than a week away. Since I wrote this one of my three best friends died of cancer, my mother of old age, my father is fighting dementia, and instead of not being quite 50, I’m now 58. My career is over, and while I’m not retired I will never again work for anyone else in an office environment in a paid position. All the children mentioned in the column have graduated. I’m a great Uncle four times over. Time passed all too quickly and yet as I type this, I feel no different mentally or physically than I did when I wrote this in Feb of 2008. I had only been blogging for a few months at TBLA, in a few months I’ll have been doing this for ten years. At this time Ken Arneson still had the Baseball Toaster up and running which is where I read Josh Wilker’s stuff, and would still pop in on Jon Weisman over at Dodger Thoughts.
Everything changes and everything stays the same.
Spring battles
Now that we know the roster headed into spring, here are the battles that need to be decided in the next 30 or so days. LAD front office said they would probably start the year with 12 pitchers and 13 position players.
Position player locks – Adrian, Forsythe, Seager, Turner, Grandal, Puig, Joc, Barnes, Chase, and Gutierrez. That is ten leaving three slots available between Adrian, Toles, SVS, Taylor, Culberson, Hernandez, Thompson, Sweeney, and Segedin.
Pitching Locks – Kershaw, Maeda, Hill, Jansen, Romo, Baez. Leaving six options between Wood, Kazmir, McCarthy, Ryu, Stewart, Stripling, Dayton, Avilan, Liberatore, Fields, Hatcher, Ravin, and Morrow
Main position battle:
Who plays in LF against RHP?- Andre or Toles? I’m assuming Franklyn Gutierrez is the man against left-hand pitching. My initial guess is Andre with Toles headed to AAA but…..that would leave the Dodgers with only Chase as a left-handed option on the bench. Hmmm
Main rotation battle:
Who is the fourth and fifth starter to begin the season? – I’m going with the assumption that Urias is held back to keep his arm fresh for the later stages of the season. It is a tactic that baseball should have used long ago. This leaves Wood / McCarthy / Kazmir / Ryu / Stewart/Stripling fighting for two spots. My initial guess would be Kazmir gets traded, McCarthy and Ryu win the spots, Wood to the bullpen, Stewart and Stripling to AAA. I also expect Ryu to eventually get released and either replaced by Wood or Urias.
Utility Battles:
If Toles doesn’t win the platoon option against right-hand pitching does he strengthen the bench or head to AAA? The fact he’s left handed might keep him in the majors, but the fact he’s a highly regarded prospect might get him in AAA to play every day.
If Andre doesn’t win the platoon option does he stay as an expensive bench or get traded? I would guess they keep him being the only other left handed corner outfielder besides Toles.
Does SVS make the team as the backup 1st baseman, backup outfielder? Probably, but maybe only until Trayce Thompson proves he’s 100% healthy.
Which one of Chris Taylor, Charlie Culberson, Enrique Hernandez will make the team? I’d guess Hernandez makes the team with Taylor and Culberson headed back to AAA
Fields or Hatcher? I’m going with Fields which may mean losing Hatcher.
Avilan or Liberatore – I’m going with Avilan only because he’s out of options. It is possible that Avilan and Liberatore make the team with Dayton headed to AAA but I hope Dayton shows this spring why he was a 2016 monster.
If Alex Wood does not make the starting rotation does he head to the bullpen or to AAA to stay stretched out as a starter – I think Wood will make an excellent bullpen arm but I could also see the value of keeping him stretched out though that might be negated by the mental blow of being sent to AAA. I don’t have a good read on this. I’d love Wood to blow everyone away and make the rotation but that would mean Ryu sucked and I’m not sure I want to wish that either.
Dark Horse Battle:
Can Cody Bellinger win the starting left field job? he’s probably better than either option right now but to start the season he pretty much has to start in AAA unless injuries or mental breakdowns strike down Andre/Toles. Given one outfield option missed most of 2016 to injury and the other missed 2015 because he didn’t want to play it is in the realm of possibility.
Could this be the opening day roster?
Adrian, Forsythe, Seager, Turner, Grandal, Puig, Joc, Barnes, Chase, Gutierrez, Adrian, SVS, and Hernandez. Toles/ Sweeney/ Segedin head to AAA. Thompson goes on DL.
Kershaw, Maeda, Hill, McCarthy, Ryu, Jansen, Romo, Baez, Wood, Dayton, Avilan, and Fields. Stewart/Stripling/Liberatore/Ravin/Morrow to AAA, Hatcher released.
What do you think?
NFBC Drafting – Team two – Kershaw time
In my second draft, I had the fourth pick. This was another of the 50 round/15 team leagues and this time I was drafting the team based on my own rankings. These drafts by the way, are what are called slow drafts, they take place over a month depending on the speed of the league owners. You get 7.5 hours between each pick but a good league will have an auto-queue setup and the picks go very quickly. Only twice did the clock run all the way down. Because of this slow draft, you should end up with quality teams since you have plenty of time to research each pick. Quite different than the 3rd draft I did which is a 30-second clock for each pick, and is over in usually two hours for 450 players. No matter how prepared you are you still end up with some panic picks because the 30 second clock goes very quickly.
I crossed my fingers that Kershaw would last to the 4th pick and when he did I had him on my team for the time since 2015 when I made my deep run for the NFBC Main championship.
Now I had to build an offense to make up for the fact I used the 4th pick on Kershaw. I think I did quite well with Encarnacion lasting all the way until I nabbed him with the 26th pick. I followed that up with Story, JD Martinez, Yelich, Contreras, and Kemp before I took another pitcher.
Players who I coveted late and got were Carlos Gomez (12th round), and Dansby Swanson (13th round). I snagged Moncada in the 14th and since he’s going to start out in AAA I was lucky to get Kolten Wong in the 24th to be my starting 2nd baseman until Moncada comes up to wreck havoc upon the league (or strikeout nine times in a row).
Same players on this team as my first draft:
- Cameron Rupp (18th round)
- Brandon Finnegan (25th round)
- Eddie Rosario (28th round)
- Tyson Ross (29th round)
- Ozzie Albies(30th round)
- Brandon McCarthy (34th round)
- Brett Anderson(41st round) (playing the edges)
- Henry Owens(50th round)
This was a much more Dodger-centric draft since I got Kershaw with the 1st pick. Besides Kershaw, I got Turner in the 9th, Alex Wood in the 27th, Bellinger in the 35th, Gutierrez in the 43rd, and the above mentioned McCarthy in the 34th. Trying to cover my bets with either Wood or McCarthy making the starting rotation at some point this season. Best case scenario is that McCarthy gets traded to a starting gig, and Wood gets his place in the Dodger rotation. Worst case, Wood goes to bullpen, McCarthy sucks.
Everyone loves Urias but the 150 IP cap is keeping them from drafting him before the 10th round. Yet, Hill has the same health cap and he’s going in the 8th or 9th. I’d rather have Urias but have yet to nab him in a draft. Dabnabit.
Dodger Draft notes:
Rotation:
- Kershaw was the 4th pick (Me)
- Kenta in the 7th
- Hill in the 9th
- Urias in the 11th
- Wood in the 27th (Me)
- Kazmir 28th
- McCarthy 34th (Me)
- Ryu in the 27th
- Brock Stewart 39th
- Ross Stripling 44th
Bullpen:
- Jansen in the 4th
- Dayton 43rd
- Pedro Baez in the 39th
- Romo 34th
Infield:
- Seager in the 2nd (20th overall)
- Turner in the 9th (Me)
- Grandal in the 1oth
- Gonzalez went in the 10th round
- Forsythe in the 15th
- Barnes 35th
- Chase 37th
Outfield:
- Joc in the 15th
- Puig in the 17th
- Toles in the 25th
- Andre in the 38th
- Gutierrez in the 43rd (Me)
Fun picks were Rubby near the end. If health permits I still see a hard throwing bullpen arm that could morph into a closer given the bullpen situation in Arizona. Corbin could bounce back. Bellinger just in case.
The catcher strategy in this long game was to take every Phillie who might catch so I have Rupp/Alfaro/Knapp.
I could see Robertson getting traded and hopefully Nate Jones taking over as closer. Worse case with Jones you get awesome peripherals.
I do think Yelich at 5 and Kemp at 7 were excellent picks. Kemp may not be a “good” player anymore but he’s still an excellent roto bat. Yelich might be on the cusp of becoming one of the great hitters in baseball. I drafted Contreras a little higher than I wanted but I wanted an offensive catcher for this team and I got one.
I like this team much more than my first team so I’m curious to see how it plays out. The ranking comes via the Rotowire projection simulator for 5×5.
| Rnd | Rank | First Name | Last Name | Team | Position | S/B |
| 1 | 3 | Clayton | Kershaw | LAD | SP | S |
| 2 | 17 | Edwin | Encarnacion | CLE | 1st | S |
| 3 | 24 | Trevor | Story | COL | SS | S |
| 4 | 21 | J.D. | Martinez | DET | OF | S |
| 5 | 45 | Christian | Yelich | MIA | OF | S |
| 6 | 243 | Willson | Contreras | CHC | C | S |
| 7 | 44 | Matt | Kemp | ATL | OF | S |
| 8 | 121 | Alex | Colome | TB | RP | S |
| 9 | 90 | Justin | Turner | LAD | 3B | S |
| 10 | 138 | John | Lackey | CHC | SP | S |
| 11 | 152 | Tanner | Roark | WAS | SP | S |
| 12 | 250 | Carlos | Gomez | TEX | OF | S |
| 13 | 92 | Dansby | Swanson | ATL | 2nd/SS | S |
| 14 | 195 | Yoan | Moncada | CWS | Bench-2B | B |
| 15 | 170 | Matt | Shoemaker | LAA | SP | S |
| 16 | 282 | Shawn | Kelley | WAS | RP | S |
| 17 | 174 | Marco | Estrada | TOR | SP | S |
| 18 | 496 | Cameron | Rupp | PHI | C | S |
| 19 | 314 | Nate | Jones | CWS | Bench-RP | B |
| 20 | 240 | Yangervis | Solarte | SD | 1st/3rd | S |
| 21 | NR | Greg | Holland | COL | Bench-RP | B |
| 22 | 250 | Alex | Dickerson | SD | OF | S |
| 23 | 209 | Joe | Musgrove | HOU | SP | S |
| 24 | 345 | Kolten | Wong | STL | 2B | S |
| 25 | 276 | Brandon | Finnegan | CIN | SP | S |
| 26 | 264 | Adonis | Garcia | ATL | Utility/3B | S |
| 27 | 487 | Alex | Wood | LAD | Bench-SP | B |
| 28 | 336 | Eddie | Rosario | MIN | Bench-OF | B |
| 29 | 402 | Tyson | Ross | TEX | Bench-SP | B |
| 30 | NR | Ozzie | Albies | ATL | Bench-2B | B |
| 31 | 656 | Patrick | Corbin | ARI | Bench-RP | B |
| 32 | 363 | Arodys | Vizcaino | ATL | Bench-RP | B |
| 33 | 1003 | Jorge | Alfaro | PHI | Bench-C | B |
| 34 | 705 | Brandon | McCarthy | LAD | Bench-SP | B |
| 35 | NR | Cody | Bellinger | LAD | Bench-1B | B |
| 36 | 652 | Cory | Spangenberg | SD | Bench-2B | B |
| 37 | 659 | John | Jaso | PIT | Bench-1B | B |
| 38 | 431 | Norichika | Aoki | HOU | Bench-OF | B |
| 39 | 403 | Tom | Koehler | MIA | Bench-SP | B |
| 40 | 448 | Drew | Hutchison | PIT | Bench-SP | B |
| 41 | 787 | Brett | Anderson | CHI | Bench-SP | B |
| 42 | 435 | Joakim | Soria | KC | Bench-RP | B |
| 43 | 658 | Franklin | Gutierrez | LAD | Bench-OF | B |
| 44 | NR | Arismendy | Alcanatara | CIN | Bench-INF | B |
| 45 | 511 | Wade | Miley | BAL | Bench-SP | B |
| 46 | 927 | Tommy | Pham | STL | Bench-OF | B |
| 47 | 825 | Chad | Pinder | OAK | Bench-2B | B |
| 48 | NR | Andrew | Knapp | PHI | Bench-C | B |
| 49 | 530 | Rubby | De La Rosa | ARI | Bench-RP | B |
| 50 | 831 | Henry | Owens | BOS | Bench-SP | B |
Dodgers, Yesterday and Today 