Building a LAD rotation with BPV

Phil Gurnee ♦ February 19, 2017 ♦ 1 Comment

If you want to discount scouting and simply go by some analysis to configure a pitching staff, one way to do it would be to use baseball HQ’s BPV formula.

Pitching BPV: ((Dominance Rate – 5.0) x 18) + ((4.0 – Walk rate) x 27) + (Ground ball rate as whole number – 40)

This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors. In tandem with a pitcher’s strand rate, it provides a complete picture of the elements that contribute to a pitcher’s ERA, and therefore serves as an accurate tool to project likely changes in ERA. BENCHMARKS: A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success. The elite of the bullpen aces will have BPV’s in excess of 100 and it is rare for these stoppers to enjoy long term success with consistent levels under 75.

We weren’t kidding when we felt the Dodgers had ten legitimate rotation options, and the skill levels bear this out.

Rotation spots aren’t simply dictated by skill levels, and if Kazmir can pitch and is on the Dodgers you have to imagine he’s in the rotation. And when healthy that is just fine, because when healthy, Scott Kazmir is a solid rotation option. I’d throw the Ryu numbers out the window, simply to much time has passed since he’s actually thrown any meaningful innings. You have to like the number that Ross Stripling put up. The BPV of 79 would easily be a number five starter on any team in baseball.

Jose De Leon, by the way, has a BPV of 101. When people say they see little difference between what De Leon and Stewart will produce, they may be right.

For context,  this would be the Giants. Top heavy, little depth. They will need to get 120 starts from their top four pitchers.

The Padres are as bad as you thought they might be. Offense might be exploding at Petco in 2017.  Adding Weaver doesn’t help any. Basically,  Ross Stripling would be the Padres best starting option.

Now let’s look outside the division and at the 2nd best rotation in the NL. With the addition of Brett Anderson,  the Cubs can go five deep. But once you get past Anderson it gets dicey, and while the Dodgers can try to cobble two pitchers from five injured pitchers in Hill, Wood, Kazmir, McCarthy, and Ryu, the Cubs have all their hopes on one Brett Anderson. Given we saw Anderson get hurt simply trying to field a ground ball, I don’t think their bet pays off.  Past the five injured pitchers the Dodgers are counting on,  they still have Stewart and Stripling, the Cubs have diddly squat. Maybe Montgomery is going to keep coming on. Maybe.

Tomorrow we will do the relief pitchers and Pedro Baez might blow you away.