Building a LAD rotation with BPV

If you want to discount scouting and simply go by some analysis to configure a pitching staff, one way to do it would be to use baseball HQ’s BPV formula.

Pitching BPV: ((Dominance Rate – 5.0) x 18) + ((4.0 – Walk rate) x 27) + (Ground ball rate as whole number – 40)

This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors. In tandem with a pitcher’s strand rate, it provides a complete picture of the elements that contribute to a pitcher’s ERA, and therefore serves as an accurate tool to project likely changes in ERA. BENCHMARKS: A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success. The elite of the bullpen aces will have BPV’s in excess of 100 and it is rare for these stoppers to enjoy long term success with consistent levels under 75.

We weren’t kidding when we felt the Dodgers had ten legitimate rotation options, and the skill levels bear this out.

Lastname Firstname Age BPV
Kershaw Clayton 29 173
Urias Julio 20 116
Maeda Kenta 29 110
Wood Alex 26 110
Stewart Brock 25 102
Hill Rich 37 98
Kazmir Scott 33 89
Ryu Hyun-Jin 30 83
Stripling Ross 27 79
McCarthy Brandon 33 67

Rotation spots aren’t simply dictated by skill levels, and if Kazmir can pitch and is on the Dodgers you have to imagine he’s in the rotation. And when healthy that is just fine, because when healthy, Scott Kazmir is a solid rotation option. I’d throw the Ryu numbers out the window, simply to much time has passed since he’s actually thrown any meaningful innings. You have to like the number that Ross Stripling put up. The BPV of 79 would easily be a number five starter on any team in baseball.

Jose De Leon, by the way, has a BPV of 101. When people say they see little difference between what De Leon and Stewart will produce, they may be right.

For context,  this would be the Giants. Top heavy, little depth. They will need to get 120 starts from their top four pitchers.

Bumgarner Madison 27 140
Cueto Johnny 31 114
Samardzija Jeff 32 97
Moore Matt 28 73
Beede Tyler 24 54
Blackburn Clayton 24 54
Stratton Chris 26 53
Blach Ty 26 51
Suarez Albert 27 47
Crick Kyle 24 -32

The Padres are as bad as you thought they might be. Offense might be exploding at Petco in 2017.  Adding Weaver doesn’t help any. Basically,  Ross Stripling would be the Padres best starting option.

Perdomo Luis 24 71
Lee Zach 25 54
Friedrich Christian 29 50
Chacin Jhoulys 29 45
Richard Clayton 33 34
Clemens Paul 29 8
Cosart Jarred 27 1
Jenkins Tyrell 24 1
Weaver Jered 34 40

Now let’s look outside the division and at the 2nd best rotation in the NL. With the addition of Brett Anderson,  the Cubs can go five deep. But once you get past Anderson it gets dicey, and while the Dodgers can try to cobble two pitchers from five injured pitchers in Hill, Wood, Kazmir, McCarthy, and Ryu, the Cubs have all their hopes on one Brett Anderson. Given we saw Anderson get hurt simply trying to field a ground ball, I don’t think their bet pays off.  Past the five injured pitchers the Dodgers are counting on,  they still have Stewart and Stripling, the Cubs have diddly squat. Maybe Montgomery is going to keep coming on. Maybe.

Lester Jon 33 125
Hendricks Kyle 27 108
Arrieta Jake 31 100
Lackey John 38 100
Anderson Brett 29 89
Montgomery Michael 28 69
Buchanan Jake 27 54
Zastryzny Rob 25 53
Butler Eddie 26 9

Tomorrow we will do the relief pitchers and Pedro Baez might blow you away.

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    1. Building the LAD bullpen with BPV | Dodgers, Yesterday and Today

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