Building the LAD bullpen with BPV
One of the biggest questions headed into spring is who will comprise the LAD bullpen. Last week we looked at who the best options for the rotation were based on the BPV formula used by Baseball HQ to determine skills levels of pitchers.
Again, this is how the BPV formula is calculated:
Pitching BPV: ((Dominance Rate – 5.0) x 18) + ((4.0 – Walk rate) x 27) + (Ground ball rate as whole number – 40)
This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors. In tandem with a pitcher’s strand rate, it provides a complete picture of the elements that contribute to a pitcher’s ERA, and therefore serves as an accurate tool to project likely changes in ERA. BENCHMARKS: A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success. The elite of the bullpen aces will have BPV’s in excess of 100 and it is rare for these stoppers to enjoy long term success with consistent levels under 75.
Today we will use the same formula to take a look at the bullpen. Remember, these BPV values are based on BaseballHQ statistical projections for 2017.
Yeah, Jansen is elite. Among relief pitchers, Andrew Miller is the only pitcher with a higher projected BPV.
As you might have suspected, Grant Dayton was special last year with a 2016 BPV of 189 which was one of the ten best in baseball last year. They see some regression but his 152 BPV would still put him among the top 20 relief pitchers in baseball.
I included Blanton on the chart because he still might be on the Dodger radar and if he isn’t, how does Romo compare? If the Dodgers choose Romo over Blanton it appears they choose wisely. The best year skill set wise was 2015, but he was unable to replicate that elite level as a Dodger. He had his uses but Romo has been consistently good for years.
For context, the Dodgers have three of the top twenty relief pitchers in baseball in BPV. Jansen is number two, Dayton is 16th and Romo 17th.
That is a good start to a bullpen.
Following those three is the maligned Pedro Baez. His skill set puts on the same level as Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, and he just makes the top fifty.
That is the good news.
I think Alex Wood would be a welcome addition to this bullpen if any two of Kazmir/McCarthy/Ryu can crack the rotation. My own personal thought is that both Wood and McCarthy could transition to the bullpen and put up great numbers but I’m not as sure about Kazmir but that is another column.
Liberatore would have been elite if we had run this in June of 2016 and given how he pitched poorly while in pain before getting shut down, I’m more inclined to believe he has a better skill set than is showing up here.
Hatcher is out of options and would appear to be fighting Fields for his spot on the roster. Fields has long shown solid skills with three years runnings of 130 plus BPV. Hatcher was neck and neck with Fields in BPV for 2014 and 2015 so given the problems that Hatcher had physically and possibly mentally in 2016 I would think they are fairly evenly matched skill set wise. Since one has options, and one does not, if Hatcher shows something this spring, I will change my mind from my spring battle thread and give the edge to Hatcher.
Avilan is also out of options and last year put up a BPV of 136. For some reason the projections for Avilan in 2017 are horrible and I don’t know why. Everyone else is consistent in 2017 with what they did in 2016 but Avilan is expected to show major regression.
We remember Morrow as the pitcher with all the promise back in Toronto but skill set wise, he has had one good season in his last five. Still worth an NRI, but I’m not expecting him to show much.
As great as Dayton is expected to be, he might fall victim to a numbers crunch and not make the opening roster. It might come down to how Alex Wood is handled.
|Nuno Be Gone||Vidal||29||109/100||4.06|