Josh Wilker the author of Cardboard Gods, The Book finished the best series he’s ever done which is saying a lot since everything he writes is spellbinding. It is hard to write after reading Josh, his skill is so impressive, and his words bring to life imagery unlike any other. Normally his stories leave me enthralled but this last series left me shaken. Follow the links, and enter a world you’ve never seen before.
This new series deals with death in Josh’s unique way of looking at the world and it came to close to the anniversary of the passing away of William. I knew people who have died in simple accidents in which the smallest part of time sealed their fate, loved ones who have been taken by disease, and Grandparents taken by time just like Josh wrote about. In time all of you will experience the same thing. The stories left me pondering not my fate but those around me. Time passes so quickly that it is shocking to think it was already 3 years ago. In another year William will have been gone longer then he lived. Outside of my family, no one has had the impact on my life that little William did. Perceptions changed and I felt more urgency to my life then ever before while also being unable to get back into the flow of life for quite a while. This urgency is getting defeated by the sands of time as they flow through my fingers faster and faster, no matter how hard I try to staunch the flow I feel myself being pulled into a quagmire.
Growing old does not really effect me, but it seems to effect all those around me. I feel like I’m staying static, as everyone ages either in front of me or more times then not somewhere else. My grandparents have been gone for years now and now my beloved parents are moving into the same space that my grandparents once inhabited. My oldest niece is now 30, my youngest niece is about to become a teenager and while I know they need to grow, every time I see the growth, I’m left wondering what the hell happened. My friend’s kids are growing faster then weeds and since none of them live in Los Angeles I’m going to miss most of it just like I missed two of my brothers families growing up. I’ll never get to see the nuances of their childhood and it pisses me off. Bev and Chuck have two great kids but I’m just some guy who stops by for the night when I’m able to stop by San Francisco on the way to Ferndale. Mark and Keri have two wonderful children and I’ve only been able to see them once, soon they will be in school if they aren’t already. Byron and Carmen have added Adam with a new addition on the way and Julia the apple of my eye will become a stranger all over again. I need to visit all of them but how can I when they are spread all over the country? It takes time to learn what makes a child’s heart tick and time is not something I have.
I’ve always embraced the new baseball season with its slate wiped clean and wonderful new stories ready to unfold before our eyes. Each spring I seem to need the new baseball season more then the last. It is the only thing I don’t mind going into the record books. Even as I look forward to the 1st spring training game, I know the season will be over in 7 or hopefully 8 months. It will go so fast that by the end you will wonder how it is November already. With much ado the Dodgers are going to be celebrating their 50th anniversary in Los Angeles. How many are still with us who witnessed the 1st game? Are they still fans, do they still watch Vinny in their rest homes? Do they have someone to share the joy of baseball with? I expect they look at this 50th anniversary and wonder what the hell happened.
Baseball is timeless, and while I feel the pull of time trying to bring me down, I can grasp onto the rope that a new season provides and with the few muscles I still have, I can pull myself out of my quagmire and look forward to the unique journey that each new season provides.Were taking the afternoon off
Building the LAD bullpen with BPV
One of the biggest questions headed into spring is who will comprise the LAD bullpen. Last week we looked at who the best options for the rotation were based on the BPV formula used by Baseball HQ to determine skills levels of pitchers.
Again, this is how the BPV formula is calculated:
Pitching BPV: ((Dominance Rate – 5.0) x 18) + ((4.0 – Walk rate) x 27) + (Ground ball rate as whole number – 40)
This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors. In tandem with a pitcher’s strand rate, it provides a complete picture of the elements that contribute to a pitcher’s ERA, and therefore serves as an accurate tool to project likely changes in ERA. BENCHMARKS: A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success. The elite of the bullpen aces will have BPV’s in excess of 100 and it is rare for these stoppers to enjoy long term success with consistent levels under 75.
Today we will use the same formula to take a look at the bullpen. Remember, these BPV values are based on BaseballHQ statistical projections for 2017.
Yeah, Jansen is elite. Among relief pitchers, Andrew Miller is the only pitcher with a higher projected BPV.
As you might have suspected, Grant Dayton was special last year with a 2016 BPV of 189 which was one of the ten best in baseball last year. They see some regression but his 152 BPV would still put him among the top 20 relief pitchers in baseball.
I included Blanton on the chart because he still might be on the Dodger radar and if he isn’t, how does Romo compare? If the Dodgers choose Romo over Blanton it appears they choose wisely. The best year skill set wise was 2015, but he was unable to replicate that elite level as a Dodger. He had his uses but Romo has been consistently good for years.
For context, the Dodgers have three of the top twenty relief pitchers in baseball in BPV. Jansen is number two, Dayton is 16th and Romo 17th.
That is a good start to a bullpen.
Following those three is the maligned Pedro Baez. His skill set puts on the same level as Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, and he just makes the top fifty.
That is the good news.
I think Alex Wood would be a welcome addition to this bullpen if any two of Kazmir/McCarthy/Ryu can crack the rotation. My own personal thought is that both Wood and McCarthy could transition to the bullpen and put up great numbers but I’m not as sure about Kazmir but that is another column.
Liberatore would have been elite if we had run this in June of 2016 and given how he pitched poorly while in pain before getting shut down, I’m more inclined to believe he has a better skill set than is showing up here.
Hatcher is out of options and would appear to be fighting Fields for his spot on the roster. Fields has long shown solid skills with three years runnings of 130 plus BPV. Hatcher was neck and neck with Fields in BPV for 2014 and 2015 so given the problems that Hatcher had physically and possibly mentally in 2016 I would think they are fairly evenly matched skill set wise. Since one has options, and one does not, if Hatcher shows something this spring, I will change my mind from my spring battle thread and give the edge to Hatcher.
Avilan is also out of options and last year put up a BPV of 136. For some reason the projections for Avilan in 2017 are horrible and I don’t know why. Everyone else is consistent in 2017 with what they did in 2016 but Avilan is expected to show major regression.
We remember Morrow as the pitcher with all the promise back in Toronto but skill set wise, he has had one good season in his last five. Still worth an NRI, but I’m not expecting him to show much.
As great as Dayton is expected to be, he might fall victim to a numbers crunch and not make the opening roster. It might come down to how Alex Wood is handled.
| Lastname | Firstname | Age | BPV 2016/2017
|
xERA |
| Jansen | Kenley | 29 | 214/206 | 2.46 |
| Dayton | Grant | 29 | 189/152 | 3.13 |
| Romo | Sergio | 34 | 135/151 | 3.08 |
| Baez | Pedro | 29 | 130/126 | 3.36 |
| Fields | Joshua | 31 | 132/123 | 3.47 |
| Nuno Be Gone | Vidal | 29 | 109/100 | 4.06 |
| Liberatore | Adam | 30 | 99/96 | 3.8 |
| Blanton | Joe | 36 | 94/95 | 3.88 |
| Hatcher | Chris | 32 | 68/89 | 3.83 |
| Avilan | Luis | 27 | 136/48 | 4.76 |
| Brandon | Morrow | 32 | 57/15 | 6.36 |
Time waits for no man
I wrote this almost eight years ago and as I was re-reading it, most of it still applies today. The new baseball season is about to start with spring training games less than a week away. Since I wrote this one of my three best friends died of cancer, my mother of old age, my father is fighting dementia, and instead of not being quite 50, I’m now 58. My career is over, and while I’m not retired I will never again work for anyone else in an office environment in a paid position. All the children mentioned in the column have graduated. I’m a great Uncle four times over. Time passed all too quickly and yet as I type this, I feel no different mentally or physically than I did when I wrote this in Feb of 2008. I had only been blogging for a few months at TBLA, in a few months I’ll have been doing this for ten years. At this time Ken Arneson still had the Baseball Toaster up and running which is where I read Josh Wilker’s stuff, and would still pop in on Jon Weisman over at Dodger Thoughts.
Everything changes and everything stays the same.
Spring battles
Now that we know the roster headed into spring, here are the battles that need to be decided in the next 30 or so days. LAD front office said they would probably start the year with 12 pitchers and 13 position players.
Position player locks – Adrian, Forsythe, Seager, Turner, Grandal, Puig, Joc, Barnes, Chase, and Gutierrez. That is ten leaving three slots available between Adrian, Toles, SVS, Taylor, Culberson, Hernandez, Thompson, Sweeney, and Segedin.
Pitching Locks – Kershaw, Maeda, Hill, Jansen, Romo, Baez. Leaving six options between Wood, Kazmir, McCarthy, Ryu, Stewart, Stripling, Dayton, Avilan, Liberatore, Fields, Hatcher, Ravin, and Morrow
Main position battle:
Who plays in LF against RHP?- Andre or Toles? I’m assuming Franklyn Gutierrez is the man against left-hand pitching. My initial guess is Andre with Toles headed to AAA but…..that would leave the Dodgers with only Chase as a left-handed option on the bench. Hmmm
Main rotation battle:
Who is the fourth and fifth starter to begin the season? – I’m going with the assumption that Urias is held back to keep his arm fresh for the later stages of the season. It is a tactic that baseball should have used long ago. This leaves Wood / McCarthy / Kazmir / Ryu / Stewart/Stripling fighting for two spots. My initial guess would be Kazmir gets traded, McCarthy and Ryu win the spots, Wood to the bullpen, Stewart and Stripling to AAA. I also expect Ryu to eventually get released and either replaced by Wood or Urias.
Utility Battles:
If Toles doesn’t win the platoon option against right-hand pitching does he strengthen the bench or head to AAA? The fact he’s left handed might keep him in the majors, but the fact he’s a highly regarded prospect might get him in AAA to play every day.
If Andre doesn’t win the platoon option does he stay as an expensive bench or get traded? I would guess they keep him being the only other left handed corner outfielder besides Toles.
Does SVS make the team as the backup 1st baseman, backup outfielder? Probably, but maybe only until Trayce Thompson proves he’s 100% healthy.
Which one of Chris Taylor, Charlie Culberson, Enrique Hernandez will make the team? I’d guess Hernandez makes the team with Taylor and Culberson headed back to AAA
Fields or Hatcher? I’m going with Fields which may mean losing Hatcher.
Avilan or Liberatore – I’m going with Avilan only because he’s out of options. It is possible that Avilan and Liberatore make the team with Dayton headed to AAA but I hope Dayton shows this spring why he was a 2016 monster.
If Alex Wood does not make the starting rotation does he head to the bullpen or to AAA to stay stretched out as a starter – I think Wood will make an excellent bullpen arm but I could also see the value of keeping him stretched out though that might be negated by the mental blow of being sent to AAA. I don’t have a good read on this. I’d love Wood to blow everyone away and make the rotation but that would mean Ryu sucked and I’m not sure I want to wish that either.
Dark Horse Battle:
Can Cody Bellinger win the starting left field job? he’s probably better than either option right now but to start the season he pretty much has to start in AAA unless injuries or mental breakdowns strike down Andre/Toles. Given one outfield option missed most of 2016 to injury and the other missed 2015 because he didn’t want to play it is in the realm of possibility.
Could this be the opening day roster?
Adrian, Forsythe, Seager, Turner, Grandal, Puig, Joc, Barnes, Chase, Gutierrez, Adrian, SVS, and Hernandez. Toles/ Sweeney/ Segedin head to AAA. Thompson goes on DL.
Kershaw, Maeda, Hill, McCarthy, Ryu, Jansen, Romo, Baez, Wood, Dayton, Avilan, and Fields. Stewart/Stripling/Liberatore/Ravin/Morrow to AAA, Hatcher released.
What do you think?
NFBC Drafting – Team two – Kershaw time
In my second draft, I had the fourth pick. This was another of the 50 round/15 team leagues and this time I was drafting the team based on my own rankings. These drafts by the way, are what are called slow drafts, they take place over a month depending on the speed of the league owners. You get 7.5 hours between each pick but a good league will have an auto-queue setup and the picks go very quickly. Only twice did the clock run all the way down. Because of this slow draft, you should end up with quality teams since you have plenty of time to research each pick. Quite different than the 3rd draft I did which is a 30-second clock for each pick, and is over in usually two hours for 450 players. No matter how prepared you are you still end up with some panic picks because the 30 second clock goes very quickly.
I crossed my fingers that Kershaw would last to the 4th pick and when he did I had him on my team for the time since 2015 when I made my deep run for the NFBC Main championship.
Now I had to build an offense to make up for the fact I used the 4th pick on Kershaw. I think I did quite well with Encarnacion lasting all the way until I nabbed him with the 26th pick. I followed that up with Story, JD Martinez, Yelich, Contreras, and Kemp before I took another pitcher.
Players who I coveted late and got were Carlos Gomez (12th round), and Dansby Swanson (13th round). I snagged Moncada in the 14th and since he’s going to start out in AAA I was lucky to get Kolten Wong in the 24th to be my starting 2nd baseman until Moncada comes up to wreck havoc upon the league (or strikeout nine times in a row).
Same players on this team as my first draft:
- Cameron Rupp (18th round)
- Brandon Finnegan (25th round)
- Eddie Rosario (28th round)
- Tyson Ross (29th round)
- Ozzie Albies(30th round)
- Brandon McCarthy (34th round)
- Brett Anderson(41st round) (playing the edges)
- Henry Owens(50th round)
This was a much more Dodger-centric draft since I got Kershaw with the 1st pick. Besides Kershaw, I got Turner in the 9th, Alex Wood in the 27th, Bellinger in the 35th, Gutierrez in the 43rd, and the above mentioned McCarthy in the 34th. Trying to cover my bets with either Wood or McCarthy making the starting rotation at some point this season. Best case scenario is that McCarthy gets traded to a starting gig, and Wood gets his place in the Dodger rotation. Worst case, Wood goes to bullpen, McCarthy sucks.
Everyone loves Urias but the 150 IP cap is keeping them from drafting him before the 10th round. Yet, Hill has the same health cap and he’s going in the 8th or 9th. I’d rather have Urias but have yet to nab him in a draft. Dabnabit.
Dodger Draft notes:
Rotation:
- Kershaw was the 4th pick (Me)
- Kenta in the 7th
- Hill in the 9th
- Urias in the 11th
- Wood in the 27th (Me)
- Kazmir 28th
- McCarthy 34th (Me)
- Ryu in the 27th
- Brock Stewart 39th
- Ross Stripling 44th
Bullpen:
- Jansen in the 4th
- Dayton 43rd
- Pedro Baez in the 39th
- Romo 34th
Infield:
- Seager in the 2nd (20th overall)
- Turner in the 9th (Me)
- Grandal in the 1oth
- Gonzalez went in the 10th round
- Forsythe in the 15th
- Barnes 35th
- Chase 37th
Outfield:
- Joc in the 15th
- Puig in the 17th
- Toles in the 25th
- Andre in the 38th
- Gutierrez in the 43rd (Me)
Fun picks were Rubby near the end. If health permits I still see a hard throwing bullpen arm that could morph into a closer given the bullpen situation in Arizona. Corbin could bounce back. Bellinger just in case.
The catcher strategy in this long game was to take every Phillie who might catch so I have Rupp/Alfaro/Knapp.
I could see Robertson getting traded and hopefully Nate Jones taking over as closer. Worse case with Jones you get awesome peripherals.
I do think Yelich at 5 and Kemp at 7 were excellent picks. Kemp may not be a “good” player anymore but he’s still an excellent roto bat. Yelich might be on the cusp of becoming one of the great hitters in baseball. I drafted Contreras a little higher than I wanted but I wanted an offensive catcher for this team and I got one.
I like this team much more than my first team so I’m curious to see how it plays out. The ranking comes via the Rotowire projection simulator for 5×5.
| Rnd | Rank | First Name | Last Name | Team | Position | S/B |
| 1 | 3 | Clayton | Kershaw | LAD | SP | S |
| 2 | 17 | Edwin | Encarnacion | CLE | 1st | S |
| 3 | 24 | Trevor | Story | COL | SS | S |
| 4 | 21 | J.D. | Martinez | DET | OF | S |
| 5 | 45 | Christian | Yelich | MIA | OF | S |
| 6 | 243 | Willson | Contreras | CHC | C | S |
| 7 | 44 | Matt | Kemp | ATL | OF | S |
| 8 | 121 | Alex | Colome | TB | RP | S |
| 9 | 90 | Justin | Turner | LAD | 3B | S |
| 10 | 138 | John | Lackey | CHC | SP | S |
| 11 | 152 | Tanner | Roark | WAS | SP | S |
| 12 | 250 | Carlos | Gomez | TEX | OF | S |
| 13 | 92 | Dansby | Swanson | ATL | 2nd/SS | S |
| 14 | 195 | Yoan | Moncada | CWS | Bench-2B | B |
| 15 | 170 | Matt | Shoemaker | LAA | SP | S |
| 16 | 282 | Shawn | Kelley | WAS | RP | S |
| 17 | 174 | Marco | Estrada | TOR | SP | S |
| 18 | 496 | Cameron | Rupp | PHI | C | S |
| 19 | 314 | Nate | Jones | CWS | Bench-RP | B |
| 20 | 240 | Yangervis | Solarte | SD | 1st/3rd | S |
| 21 | NR | Greg | Holland | COL | Bench-RP | B |
| 22 | 250 | Alex | Dickerson | SD | OF | S |
| 23 | 209 | Joe | Musgrove | HOU | SP | S |
| 24 | 345 | Kolten | Wong | STL | 2B | S |
| 25 | 276 | Brandon | Finnegan | CIN | SP | S |
| 26 | 264 | Adonis | Garcia | ATL | Utility/3B | S |
| 27 | 487 | Alex | Wood | LAD | Bench-SP | B |
| 28 | 336 | Eddie | Rosario | MIN | Bench-OF | B |
| 29 | 402 | Tyson | Ross | TEX | Bench-SP | B |
| 30 | NR | Ozzie | Albies | ATL | Bench-2B | B |
| 31 | 656 | Patrick | Corbin | ARI | Bench-RP | B |
| 32 | 363 | Arodys | Vizcaino | ATL | Bench-RP | B |
| 33 | 1003 | Jorge | Alfaro | PHI | Bench-C | B |
| 34 | 705 | Brandon | McCarthy | LAD | Bench-SP | B |
| 35 | NR | Cody | Bellinger | LAD | Bench-1B | B |
| 36 | 652 | Cory | Spangenberg | SD | Bench-2B | B |
| 37 | 659 | John | Jaso | PIT | Bench-1B | B |
| 38 | 431 | Norichika | Aoki | HOU | Bench-OF | B |
| 39 | 403 | Tom | Koehler | MIA | Bench-SP | B |
| 40 | 448 | Drew | Hutchison | PIT | Bench-SP | B |
| 41 | 787 | Brett | Anderson | CHI | Bench-SP | B |
| 42 | 435 | Joakim | Soria | KC | Bench-RP | B |
| 43 | 658 | Franklin | Gutierrez | LAD | Bench-OF | B |
| 44 | NR | Arismendy | Alcanatara | CIN | Bench-INF | B |
| 45 | 511 | Wade | Miley | BAL | Bench-SP | B |
| 46 | 927 | Tommy | Pham | STL | Bench-OF | B |
| 47 | 825 | Chad | Pinder | OAK | Bench-2B | B |
| 48 | NR | Andrew | Knapp | PHI | Bench-C | B |
| 49 | 530 | Rubby | De La Rosa | ARI | Bench-RP | B |
| 50 | 831 | Henry | Owens | BOS | Bench-SP | B |
NFBC drafting – Team one
They say no one is interested in reading or hearing about roto drafts, but if that was true Fangraphs, Rotowire, and BaseballHQ wouldn’t have the traffic they have.
I might as well write about something I love to do and try to make it as Dodger-centric as I can.
I just completed my 3rd NFBC draft. Two were of the 50 round 15 team (750 players) variety, and one was of the 12 team, 30 round variety.
I don’t like mock drafts to get ready for the Main NFBC draft so this year I did a few real drafts and I plan on doing at least two more before the main one.
I’ve learned a few things. Trea Turner is a hot commodity. He has gone 7th, 9th, and 1st overall in my three drafts. I personally think that is crazy and reminds me of teams picking Carlos Correa in the first round last year.
I’ve got a smattering of Dodgers on my teams.
This is my first draft picking from the 6th position. I would have taken Kershaw but he was gone. I’m loaded on offense but light on pitching and closers. When Tanaka and Teheran are your front line pitchers you better do good work later in the draft. I don’t think I did enough to make up waiting that long to get in on the pitchers. Pitchers have gone earlier and earlier each year and being my first draft of the season I didn’t pull the trigger early enough. However this kind of league is a league of attrition as you can only use the original 50 players drafted so if injuries beset a team, you better have some solid backups to get through the 162 game season. You have to remember that this is a 15 team league so no one is going to have a great pitching staff.
I sure do like my offense though. Doesn’t matter that Dozier may not be a 2nd round pick, I got Pollock in the 3rd and Braun in the 4th. Next year at this time Bregman will be at least a second round pick. I actually started this draft back in January when I thought the Dodgers were going to acquire Dozier instead of Forsythe.
It wasn’t until the 15th round that I got my first Dodger and that was Puig. At 15 he’s not even a gamble unless he regresses more in 17 than he has so far. Brandon McCarthy was my second Dodger and I didn’t nab him until round 28. Could pay off nicely if he can crack the rotation and stay in it. Andre was still available at my spot in round 39. I needed a backup outfielder and he fit the bill perfectly.
As pure gambles, I took Jose Fernandez and Willie Calhoun. I expect nothing from either but just wanted them on my team. When you draft 50 players, at least five of these guys will never see the major leagues for any significant minutes. Remember at this point we are 700 players deep and every starting player has been long gone.
The secret to this strange draft is that I used the rankings of Todd Zola who is quite famous in the NFBC world. Since I’m doing multiple drafts, for this one I just used his ranking. The other drafts will be different takes. I wanted to compare a Todd Zola drafted team against a team that I would have preferred.
For example, I never would have taken Eduardo Nunez in the 8th round but Todd has him ranked as the 84th best roto player in a 5 x 5 league so I went with it. He only had players ranked until 330 so for the last 25 rounds I was on my own.
I also ended up with the Ross brothers. For better or worse I have Finnegan on all my teams
Players I was excited about getting. Arenado, Pollock, Bregman, Thames, Puig, Kang, Strahm, Duffy, and T Ross.
I also threw a flier at Frankie Montas.
One other note, while some Dodger fans don’t think they will miss Jharel Cotton, roto players think he’s the bomb and he’s going pretty early for a guy with such little major league experience. He went in the 19th round in this draft, 18th in another, and 19th in the final draft. Paul Sporer who writes for both Fangraphs and Rotowire recently came out with his top 100 pitchers, and Mr. Cotton ranked 68th overall at Fangraphs.
Dodger Draft notes:
Rotation:
- Kershaw was the 3rd pick
- Kenta in the 8th
- Hill in the 9th
- Urias in the 13th
- Wood in the 24th
- Kazmir 26th
- McCarthy 28th (Me)
- Ryu in the 31st
- Brock Stewart 39th
Ross Stripling was the only rotation option not drafted
Bullpen:
- Jansen in the 4th
- Dayton 29th
- Pedro Baez in the 39th
- Romo 39th
Infield:
- Seager in the 2nd (23rd overall)
- Turner in the 8th
- Grandal in the 1oth
- Gonzalez went in the 11th round
- Forsythe in the 14th
- Barnes 33rd
- Chase 36th
Outfield:
- Joc in the 13th (Todd Zola is not a fan)
- Puig in the 15th (Me)
- Toles in the 24th
- Andre in the 39th (Me)
- Gutierrez in the 44th
| Round | Rank | First Name | Last Name | Team | Position | S/B |
| 1 | 3 | Nolan | Arenado | COL | 3B | S |
| 2 | 17 | Brian | Dozier | MIN | 2B | S |
| 3 | 18 | A.J. | Pollock | ARI | OF | S |
| 4 | 36 | Ryan | Braun | MIL | OF | S |
| 5 | 72 | Masahiro | Tanaka | NYY | SP | S |
| 6 | 60 | Alex | Bregman | HOU | 3B/1B | S |
| 7 | 98 | Julio | Teheran | ATL | SP | S |
| 8 | 84 | Eduardo | Nunez | SF | SS | S |
| 9 | 100 | Albert | Pujols | LAA | 1st | S |
| 10 | 126 | Tony | Watson | PIT | RP | S |
| 11 | 121 | Russell | Martin | TOR | C | S |
| 12 | 173 | Hector | Neris | PHI | RP | S |
| 13 | 95 | Eric | Thames | MIL | OF-1B | S |
| 14 | 180 | Drew | Smyly | SEA | SP | S |
| 15 | 174 | Yasiel | Puig | LAD | OF | S |
| 16 | 207 | Joe | Ross | WAS | SP | S |
| 17 | 231 | Ryan | Madson | OAK | RP | S |
| 18 | 154 | Jung Ho | Kang | PIT | DH | S |
| 19 | 244 | Cameron | Rupp | PHI | C | S |
| 20 | 184 | David | Peralta | ARI | OF | S |
| 21 | 229 | Matthew | Strahm | KC | SP | S |
| 22 | 206 | Matt | Duffy | TB | 2nb/SS | S |
| 23 | 318 | Brandon | Finnegan | CIN | SP | S |
| 24 | NR | Tyson | Ross | TEX | Bench-SP | B |
| 25 | NR | Ozzie | Albies | ATL | Bench-2B | B |
| 26 | NR | David | Wright | NYM | Bench-3B | B |
| 27 | 255 | Eddie | Rosario | MIN | Bench-OF | B |
| 28 | NR | Brandon | McCarthy | LAD | Bench-SP | B |
| 29 | 330 | Ryan | Dull | OAK | Bench-RP | B |
| 30 | NR | Wily | Peralta | MIL | Bench-SP | B |
| 31 | NR | Mauricio | Cabrera | ATL | Bench-RP | B |
| 32 | 337 | Brad | Brach | BAL | Bench-RP | B |
| 33 | NR | A.J. | Reed | HOU | Bench-1st | B |
| 34 | NR | Frankie | Montas | OAK | Bench-RP | B |
| 35 | NR | Chance | Sisco | Bal | Bench-C | B |
| 36 | NR | Josh | Phegley | OAK | Bench-C | B |
| 37 | NR | Norichika | Aoki | HOU | Bench-OF | B |
| 38 | NR | Chad | Pinder | OAK | Bench-2B | B |
| 39 | NR | Andre | Ethier | LAD | Bench-OF | B |
| 40 | NR | James | Shields | CWS | Bench-SP | B |
| 41 | NR | Brett | Anderson | CHC | Bench-SP | B |
| 42 | NR | Keone | Kela | TEX | Bench-RP | B |
| 43 | NR | Jose | Fernandez | LAD | Bench-2nd | B |
| 44 | NR | John | Jaso | PIT | Bench-1st | B |
| 45 | NR | Wade | Miley | BAL | Bench-SP | B |
| 46 | NR | Coco | Crisp | FA | Bench-OF | B |
| 47 | NR | Willie | Calhoun | LAD | Bench-2b | B |
| 48 | Nr | Kelby | Tomlinson | SF | Bench-2B | B |
| 49 | NR | Ronald | Torreyes | NYY | Bench-3B | B |
| 50 | NR | Henry | Owens | BOS | Bench-SP | B |
Will 2017 serve up anything close to the pleasant surprises of 2016?
With spring training about to go full bore this week I was thinking about where we were last year at this time and the shocking developments of 2016.
No one could have predicted that the following players would impact 2016:
Brock Stewart – Single A pitcher – Climbed from A to AA to AAA to the majors and pitched one of the best games against the World Champion Cubs anyone threw all year.
Andrew Toles – Single A outfielder, missed all of 2015 – Climbed from A to AA to AAA to the majors and was the Dodgers starting Left Fielder in the postseason.
Charlie Culberson – fighting for a utility role – would hit the coolest home run of 2017 for the Dodgers
or that
Carlos Ruiz – big time hit in the postseason
Will Venable – ugh
Chris Taylor – one of the biggest offensive games of the season as a Dodger
would get at bats
or that
Howie Kendrick would get more starts in LF than anyone else
or that
Puig would get sent to AAA on August 1st ( maybe you could have predicted that)
or that
Urias would get a start in May (OK, I did predict that)
What shocks will 2017 bring?
This is us – The sweetest embrace of them all
The problem with television today is that there is too much good stuff and deciding what to watch can be a daunting task while still putting together a productive life. The one constant over the past few years is that it was rarely the old network TV that would put out a show that was must watch TV.
That changed this past season when NBC unveiled “This is us”, one of the best character driven drama’s I’ve seen on the old network TV in a many a year. Many times TV is simply an entertainment device, but on rare occasions, it is a teaching device. This is us, is a teaching device. I wish the show had existed when I was eight. or ten. or twelve.
This past episode, the final scene left me wondering if I’d seen a sweeter embrace on TV in my lifetime. The way the writers built up to this scene from the first episode was a work of art.
I’m one of those viewers who will find many a hole in just about any script, but this season, this script, this embrace, it was as touching as it can be. Many times you feel manipulated into tears, but this didn’t feel manipulative, it felt real.
It all starts with the Dad being one of the greatest real person fathers in television. He’s someone we should all know, all his weaknesses all his strengths. The egocentric son who has all the emotional failings of an artist. The type A son who succeeds in everything he tries because he puts everything into it. The sibling rivalry, the jealousy of the artist toward the Type A, the Type A who only wants his brother to love him as a brother. The complexity of the sibling relationship raised as multi-racial triplets is layered and I won’t be able to do it justice here.
When the cracks start to show in Randall, I never felt the writers would go the way they went but the last two scenes left me in tears. The jealous brother as a child looking at his perfect brother who is showing emotional cracks and could use a brotherly show of affection, but Kevin simply isn’t emotionally mature enough to deliver that hug at that stage of his life. He knew what he should do, he simply didn’t do it.
Most of us have been there. We can look back at our childhood and pinpoint so many times we made the wrong emotional decision because we lacked the growth that life gives us. It is often with remorse that I think of those bad decisions and the pain I might have caused others simply because I was emotionally ignorant. To have a do-over. Yes, please.
Kevin looks to his dead father for guidance as he is about to embark on a big night for his career. When Randall makes a call for help without actually asking for help, it seems that Kevin doesn’t get the clue. The setup was excellent, about to step on stage, Kevin thinks once again about what his father would do, and this time it wasn’t about what his father would do as an actor to help him kill it on stage, it was about what his father would do for his family. This only works if you have created a father like Jack who tries to do the right thing time after time because it is the right thing to. All of those life lessons weren’t lost, and Kevin leaves his make-believe stage for the real stage and sets off to find his flailing brother.
The final scene could have played out any number of ways, but the simple embrace of his brother said all that needed to be said. Kevin got his do-over with Randall.
And the writers hit a home run with me.
For now, the Dodgers choose Segedin / Eibner over Nuno
In an effort to clear a spot on the 40 man roster for Franklyn Gutierrez the Dodgers traded Vidal Nuno to the Orioles for a Moseley. Per the Dodgers press release:
LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers today acquired minor league right-handed pitcher Ryan Moseley from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for left-handed pitcher Vidal Nuño.
Moseley, 22, made his professional debut last season with the Orioles’ Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds, going 0-1 with four saves and posting a 3.20 ERA (7 ER/19.2 IP) in 12 relief appearances. Moseley posted a 1.12 WHIP and limited batters to a .191 average, including a .091 mark (2-for-22) against lefties. The Lubbock, TX, native was originally selected by the Orioles in the eighth round of the 2016 First-Year Player Draft out of Texas Tech University.
Nuño, 29, has a 5-20 record with a 4.02 ERA in 126 games (42 starts) in four Major League seasons with the Yankees (2013-14), D-backs (2014-15) and Mariners (2015-16). The National City, CA, native was acquired by the Dodgers on November 7, 2016 from the Seattle Mariners.
On the one hand the Dodgers have a plethora of left-handed pitchers on the 40 man roster with Kershaw, Urias, Wood, Kazmir, Hill, Ryu, Dayton, Avilan, and Liberatore so you can understand moving Nuno, but on the other hand Nuno has some solid peripherals and would probably help a team more than Rob Segedin or Brett Eibner.
Later this week I was going to post the LAD relief BPV numbers and Nuno clocked in at a solid 100. Higher than either Liberatore or Avilan.
Hard for me to see a spot for Segedin for the Dodgers in 2017. Rob expressed frustration while in the Yankee organization at never getting a chance. He got a cup of coffee with the Dodgers in 2016 but was probably unlucky to be traded last spring because Bird got hurt and the Yankees might have used Segedin a lot more than the Dodgers in 2016. Unless massive injuries take out Turner and company he’s destined for another frustrating season in AAA.
Brett Eibner has some skills but not enough for two smart teams with severe outfield shortages to keep him around.
I don’t really like this move for the Dodgers. Not a big deal, fringe move but I was hoping to watch one of the best control pitchers in baseball get in some work for the Dodgers.
Building a LAD rotation with BPV
If you want to discount scouting and simply go by some analysis to configure a pitching staff, one way to do it would be to use baseball HQ’s BPV formula.
Pitching BPV: ((Dominance Rate – 5.0) x 18) + ((4.0 – Walk rate) x 27) + (Ground ball rate as whole number – 40)
This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors. In tandem with a pitcher’s strand rate, it provides a complete picture of the elements that contribute to a pitcher’s ERA, and therefore serves as an accurate tool to project likely changes in ERA. BENCHMARKS: A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success. The elite of the bullpen aces will have BPV’s in excess of 100 and it is rare for these stoppers to enjoy long term success with consistent levels under 75.
We weren’t kidding when we felt the Dodgers had ten legitimate rotation options, and the skill levels bear this out.
| Lastname | Firstname | Age | BPV |
| Kershaw | Clayton | 29 | 173 |
| Urias | Julio | 20 | 116 |
| Maeda | Kenta | 29 | 110 |
| Wood | Alex | 26 | 110 |
| Stewart | Brock | 25 | 102 |
| Hill | Rich | 37 | 98 |
| Kazmir | Scott | 33 | 89 |
| Ryu | Hyun-Jin | 30 | 83 |
| Stripling | Ross | 27 | 79 |
| McCarthy | Brandon | 33 | 67 |
Rotation spots aren’t simply dictated by skill levels, and if Kazmir can pitch and is on the Dodgers you have to imagine he’s in the rotation. And when healthy that is just fine, because when healthy, Scott Kazmir is a solid rotation option. I’d throw the Ryu numbers out the window, simply to much time has passed since he’s actually thrown any meaningful innings. You have to like the number that Ross Stripling put up. The BPV of 79 would easily be a number five starter on any team in baseball.
Jose De Leon, by the way, has a BPV of 101. When people say they see little difference between what De Leon and Stewart will produce, they may be right.
For context, this would be the Giants. Top heavy, little depth. They will need to get 120 starts from their top four pitchers.
| Bumgarner | Madison | 27 | 140 |
| Cueto | Johnny | 31 | 114 |
| Samardzija | Jeff | 32 | 97 |
| Moore | Matt | 28 | 73 |
| Beede | Tyler | 24 | 54 |
| Blackburn | Clayton | 24 | 54 |
| Stratton | Chris | 26 | 53 |
| Blach | Ty | 26 | 51 |
| Suarez | Albert | 27 | 47 |
| Crick | Kyle | 24 | -32 |
The Padres are as bad as you thought they might be. Offense might be exploding at Petco in 2017. Adding Weaver doesn’t help any. Basically, Ross Stripling would be the Padres best starting option.
| Perdomo | Luis | 24 | 71 |
| Lee | Zach | 25 | 54 |
| Friedrich | Christian | 29 | 50 |
| Chacin | Jhoulys | 29 | 45 |
| Richard | Clayton | 33 | 34 |
| Clemens | Paul | 29 | 8 |
| Cosart | Jarred | 27 | 1 |
| Jenkins | Tyrell | 24 | 1 |
| Weaver | Jered | 34 | 40 |
Now let’s look outside the division and at the 2nd best rotation in the NL. With the addition of Brett Anderson, the Cubs can go five deep. But once you get past Anderson it gets dicey, and while the Dodgers can try to cobble two pitchers from five injured pitchers in Hill, Wood, Kazmir, McCarthy, and Ryu, the Cubs have all their hopes on one Brett Anderson. Given we saw Anderson get hurt simply trying to field a ground ball, I don’t think their bet pays off. Past the five injured pitchers the Dodgers are counting on, they still have Stewart and Stripling, the Cubs have diddly squat. Maybe Montgomery is going to keep coming on. Maybe.
| Lester | Jon | 33 | 125 |
| Hendricks | Kyle | 27 | 108 |
| Arrieta | Jake | 31 | 100 |
| Lackey | John | 38 | 100 |
| Anderson | Brett | 29 | 89 |
| Montgomery | Michael | 28 | 69 |
| Buchanan | Jake | 27 | 54 |
| Zastryzny | Rob | 25 | 53 |
| Butler | Eddie | 26 | 9 |
Tomorrow we will do the relief pitchers and Pedro Baez might blow you away.
Jose Fernandez joins Dodger camp
My worries about Dodger visa’s proved unfounded for Jose Fernandez who joined the LAD spring training camp today.
From Dodger spring training notes:
¡BIENVENIDO!: This morning, the Dodgers announced that recently signed infielder Jose Miguel Fernandez (#87) has joined the club’s big-league camp as a non-roster invitee. The 28-year-old Cuban native signed with the Dodgers as a free agent on January 11 and enters his first professional season in the United States. Fernandez last played in 2014 for Cocodrilos de Matanzas in Cuba’s Serie Nacional and played for the club for eight seasons (2007-14). He has posted a career .319/.403/.424 slashline with 37 homers and 318 RBI and ranked No. 3 on Baseball America’s April 2014 rankings of the Top 20 Cuban prospects list. Fernandez played second base for the Cuban National team and represented Cuba in the 2013 World Baseball Classic where he hit .524 (11-for-21) with three doubles and six RBI along with a .545 on-base percentage and a .667 slugging percentage.
This will be the first look for many of Jose Fernandez so his play should generate a lot of excitement. Hopefully, he does not follow in the footsteps of previous Cuban infielders the Dodgers signed who proved to either be lousy and temperamental or simply lousy.
I’m not sure why the Dodgers signed him having Turner for the long term and Forsythe for at least two years, but maybe he’s simply a major league utility infielder at best.
Dodgers, Yesterday and Today 