Blanton won’t be coming back

In 2016 the Dodgers effectively traded Juan Nicasio for Joe Blanton with mixed results. Sure they weren’t traded for each other, but in two separate transactions,  it was basically a swapping of relief assets.

Dodgers allowed Juan Nicasio to leave as a free agent who was signed by the Pirates to a two-year deal for $6.6M.

Pirates allowed Joe Blanton to leave as a free agent, and he was signed by the Dodgers to a one-year deal for $4M.

Joe Blanton did good work for the Dodgers but not great work. His 2015 season with the Pirates was elite, his 2016 work for the Dodgers was average.  Joe Blanton was either not pursued by the Dodgers this offseason or was asking for too much money or years. Either way,  Joe Blanton just signed with the Nationals for one year for $4m.

In retrospect, I think the Dodgers would have been better off keeping Nicasio who had his best season skill wise in 2016. Nicasio started off as a beast last spring and parlayed that into a spot in the Pirate rotation. That didn’t last long but when Nicasio was moved to the bullpen he excelled. From the point Nicasio was moved to the bullpen on June 26th he did the following:

54 IP, 50 hits, 75 K’s, 18 walks, 2.96 ERA, 3.03 xFIP, 31% K rate

Maybe Nicasio doesn’t hang a slider to Montero?

He’s no Romo but he’s also still only 30 and might have been a better fit for this team than Romo and his declining velocity.

Anyway, Blanton be gone and won’t be coming back.

MLB Over/Under – Dodgers 93.5

Bovada released their MLB Over/Under lines today. The Dodgers clocked in at 93.5 with the World Champion Cubs on top at 95.5.

At first glance, I think I’d take the over on the Rockies at 80.5 betting that they can slug their way to a .500 season with that young rotation.

The Padres are in a tough bind, they are in the second year of a rebuild and while some of the position talent is showing up (Renfroe/Margot) none of the pitching is ready. Combine that with the fact they are in a very tough division that could find four of the five teams playing .500 baseball and wins could be hard for them to come by. 66.5 isn’t a very high bar but I could see this Padre team losing 100 games. I may have to take the under on that.

The over seems low on the Cardinals / Rangers / Orioles

MLB Win Totals (From Highest to Lowest)

Chicago Cubs                           95½

Los Angeles Dodgers                93½

Boston Red Sox                       92½

Cleveland Indians                      92½

Washington Nationals                90½

Houston Astros                         89½

New York Mets                          88½

San Francisco Giants                87½

Seattle Mariners                        85½

St. Louis Cardinals                    84½

Texas Rangers                          84½

Toronto Blue Jays                     84½

Detroit Tigers                            82½

New York Yankees                    82½

Pittsburgh Pirates                      82½

Baltimore Orioles                       80½

Colorado Rockies                     80½

Los Angeles Angels                  79½

Arizona Diamondbacks              77½

Tampa Bay Rays                       77½

Kansas City Royals                   76½

Miami Marlins                            76½

Minnesota Twins                        74½

Atlanta Braves                           73½

Oakland Athletics                      73½

Philadelphia Phillies                   73½

Cincinnati Reds                         70½

Chicago White Sox                    69½

Milwaukee Brewers                    69½

San Diego Padres                     66½

Ryu ready before Kazmir

As of Monday morning,  I got this information from rotowire:

Ryu is scheduled to pitch in Wednesday’s Cactus League matchup with the Giants, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register reports.

but that was based on this tweet from Bill Plunkett.

At the time I didn’t read the tweet and just assumed the rotowire writer had figured it out correctly. He/She had not. The tweet simply says both will pitch on Wednesday, not that Ryu would pitch the Cactus league game.

So I posted this earlier today:

Ryu has been scheduled to pitch this Wednesday in a cactus league game against the Giants, meanwhile, Scott Kazmir will pitch a simulated game on the same day.

Which was wrong. And now we learn that Kazmir will pitch the Cactus league game not Ryu.

Next time I’ll read the tweet myself. Live and learn.

Brandon McCarthy is still just throwing bullpens and is currently not scheduled for either a simulated game or cactus league game. That could change quickly.

Julio Urias will go on Tuesday on the road against the Rockies but I still find it hard to imagine he will start the season in the rotation given the veteran options they currently have.

Brock Stewart will follow Kenta Maeda today against the Rockies.

Not only will the Dodgers be closely monitoring their rotation options, you have to imagine many scouts will be also be monitoring the situation. If everyone was to come up healthy the surplus couldn’t simply be stashed away in AAA.

Let’s just say for argument sake they all make it through spring training without any health or Steve Blass issues. You would have seven pitchers for five spots and that is not even including Urias or the kids Stewart/Stripling.

In that scenario, I don’t see how Alex Wood has a shot at this rotation. He would be headed for the bullpen, or AAA, or traded. This front office has shown a penchant for trading players they traded for in the first place.

Peraza – Gone

Montas – Gone

Micah Johnson – Gone

Tyler Olson – Gone

Howie Kendrick – Gone

Zach Elfin – Gone

Joe Wieland – Gone

Carlos Ruiz – Gone

Those are just players traded from the Dodgers after being traded for within a 24 month period. If I  were to include all the players released after being traded for that would be a book not a chapter.

So while it may not make sense on the surface to trade a 26-year-old left-handed pitcher like Alex Wood, nothing would surprise me when it comes to him. The only surprise for me is if Alex Wood can beat out all his competition and win a spot in the rotation to start the season.

That leaves six for five.

You could move McCarthy to the bullpen while you sort out Kazmir and wait for Ryu to prove himself in the rotation. Ryu has already beaten some odds by simply being ready to pitch in a cactus league game. Can he further beat the odds and survive all spring?

For me is still comes down to trading Kazmir and you can’t get maximum value unless he’s pitching every day in the rotation to start the season.

Anyway, just babbling.

One final question.  I asked on my twitter feed who would pitch more major league innings this year. Matt Cain or Ryu? What do you think?

Ike & Justin sharing bench talk once again

In 2012 Ike Davis was a 25-year-old 1st baseman who had just slugged 32 home runs and looked to be on the path to a long career as the Met first baseman. Justin Turner was a 27-year-old utility player who hit two home runs in 185 plate appearances and looked like the kind of player who would have to win a job every spring.

Five years later Ike and Justin shared bench space for the first time since 2013 when they both last played for the Mets. I can’t read lips like Vin Scully but I’m pretty sure that Ike turned to Turner and said “WTF, I’m the NRI and you just signed a $65M contract?”

Lefty on Lefty – Dodger prospects Cody Bellinger and Alex Verdugo blasted home runs in the 8th inning off of lefty pitcher Barbosa.

I did not expect Stetson Allie to look like Greg Luzinski.

First look at Cuban Jose Fernandez who walked on four pitches. Good to see him already getting reps in the spring games.

Remember when Rob Segedin tore up spring last year? He’s at it again, crushing a home run to center field.

My Grandmothers first name was Cordell, so it struck me as funny to see Ryan Cordell playing for the Brewers.

Is Damien Magnifico the greatest name? Shouldn’t he be an illusionist?

Did someone forget to clear their 2016 stats? The crawl line during the Dodger game kept showing home runs in other games as though 2016 was still going on. Machado hit his 37th home run. Amusing anyway.

Updated LAD Prospect Ranking

David Hood of TBLA finally completed his ranking of the top 60 LAD prospects. He didn’t actually finish but with Cody Bellinger the only player left he hasn’t written about we can figure it out.

Legend:

  • MLB = Major League Baseball Ranking
  • BA = Baseball America
  • FG = Fangraphs
  • BP = Baseball Prospectus
  • TBLA = David Hood
  • RW = Rotowire
  • HQ = Baseball HQ

Going to sort by MLB and then by David Hood because David goes 68 deep. If you scroll down far enough you will see that Ariel Sandoval stands out among David Hood’s ranking. David didn’t rank Keibert Ruiz who has been a fast climber because he hadn’t seen enough video yet.

MLB rejiggered their ranking on the fly so with Jose De Leon gone, everyone moved up one spot and they added DJ Peters at number 30. Jose had been ranked as the number two prospect by MLB. David Hood agreed so you won’t see a number two prospect under David’s banner.

I’ve also added for the first time the baseballhq prospect ranking.

Prospect AGE MLB BA FG BP TBLA Rotowire HQ Draft
Cody Bellinger 21 1 1 2 2 1 1 (15) 1 4/2013
Alex Verdugo* 20 2 4 3 4 5 3 (42) 3 2/2014
Willie Calhoun* 22 3 5 6 8 7 4 (74) 5 4/2015
Yadier Alvarez 20 4 2 1 1 3 2 (25) 4 Cuba
Yusniel Diaz 20 5 7 9 5 19 5 (81) 7 Cuba
Walker Buehler 22 6 5 6 4 7 (126) 8 1/2015
Jordan Sheffield 21 7 10 10 15 11 1/2016
Gavin Lux 19 8 9 12 9 8 6 1/2016
Austin Barnes 27 9 10 11 NR 9 Trade
Will Smith 21 10 14 14 10 1/2016
Omar Estevez 19 11 18 39 15 Cuba
Starling Heredia 18 12 16 35 8 (135) 14 Dominican
Brock Stewart 25 13 8 7 6 13 6/2014
Josh Sborz 23 14 13 2/2015
Imani Abdullah 19 15 17 9 11/2015
Chase De Jong 23 16 22 Trade
Brendon Davis 19 17 20 5/2015
Jacob Rhame 23 18 28 6/2013
Jacob Scavuzzo 23 19 29 21/2012
Ronny Brito 17 20 67 Dominican
Johan Mieses 21 21 18 Dominican
Kyle Farmer 26 22 23 8/2013
Keibert Ruiz 18 23 13 NR Venezuela
Edwin Rios* 22 24 12 6/2015
Mitch Hansen* 20 25 16 12 2/2015
Andrew Toles* 24 26 6 8 7 NR 9 (137) Trade
Mitchell White 22 27 15 10 2/2016
Trevor Oaks 23 28 17 7/2014
Dustin May 19 29 19 21 3/2016
D.J. Peters 21 30 18 27 10 (143) 4/2016
Ariel Sandoval 21 11 FA
Andrew Sopko 22 24 7/2015
Ibandel Isabel 21 25 FA
Caleb Ferguson* 20 26 38/2014
Yaisel Sierra 25 19 30 CubanFA
Carlos Rincon 19 31 FA
Angel German 20 32 FA
Kyle Garlick 25 33 28/2015
Devin Smeltzer 21 34 5/2016
AJ Alexy 18 36 11/2016
Cristian Santana 20 37 FA
Darnell Sweeney 26 38 13/2012
Ryan Mosely 40
Madison Younginer 26 41 FA
Rob Segedin 28 42 Trade
Chris Anderson 24 43 1/2013
Cody Thomas* 22 44 13/2016
Jordan Paroubeck 22 45 FA
Jared Walker 21 46 5/2014
Tim Locastro 24 47 Trade
Michael Boyle 22 48 13/2015
Logan Crouse 20 49 30/2015
Kam Uter 21 50 12/2014
Ralston Cash 25 51 Draft
Erick Mejia 22 52 FA
Julian Leon 21 53 DRFA
Gus Schlosser 28 54 FA
Scott Barlow 23 55 Draft
Scott Griggs 25 56 8/2012
Mike Ahmed 25 57 Draft
Oneil Cruz 18 58 FA
Chris Mathewson 20 59 19/2016
Errol Robinson 22 60 6/2016
Nolan Long 23 61 16/2015
Romer Cuadrado 20 62 FA
O’Koyea Dickson 27 63 Draft
Stetson Allie 64
Wilmer Font 65
Brandon Twinkwon 66
Andrew Thurman 68

Rymer Liriano tries to get his career back

rymer-liriano

You could understand if Rymer Liriano felt apprehension as he got ready to play the first game of the spring against the Dodgers.

On March 21st, almost a year ago,  Rymer Liriano was doing his best to make the Brewer opening day roster and begin the next stage of his career.  One Dodger Matt West fastball later his face was crushed and his Brewer career over.

Liriano was once a fairly highly touted prospect in the Padre organization, rising as high as 49 in the 2012 Baseball America prospect rankings. That would put him on par with Alex Verdugo prospect ranking wise. Baseball prospectus had him as high as 39. Injuries kept Liriano from meeting those expectations and the Padres released him after the 2015 season. The Brewers scooped him up, and many expected him to make the Brewer team in the spring of 2016.

With his face crushed, Liriano lost all of the 2016 baseball season, and the Brewers released him in October.  The Chicago White Sox picked him up and he hopes to restart his career with a team in full rebuild mode.

I only write about this because it just struck me yesterday as I was watching the first spring Dodger game how quickly these players come and go. Yesterday news is exactly that. One errant pitch is all it takes to change a career arc.

One pitch.

Bet no one even knows where Matt West is these days.

NFBC – Team Three – Machado Mania

In my third draft, I had the ninth pick. This league is different from my first two. It is still NFBC but only twelve teams, and only thirty rounds. We will use FAAB to add/remove from the roster after the season starts. That changes the drafting strategy as you can’t simply load up on all the backup closer options, you need to make sure you draft some bonafide closers.

Machado is one of my favorite players so I wanted one league where he was on my team. Having the ninth pick I felt fairly confident he would to me. Especially when the first pick was Trea Turner instead of Mike Trout. There is almost no way that is going to work out for that team but hats off for trying something different.

This draft is done on-line with all league owners present with only 30 seconds between picks so you have to work fast.

Machado did fall to me so I had my pick. Coming back around I wanted a shortstop but I believe in Carlos Correa a little more than Cory Seager so I snagged Correa. With Machado, I now had either the two best shortstops or a 3rd/SS combo. I was shocked to see Encarnacion available to me with my 3rd pick so I scooped him up. With that kind of start to my offense, I could concentrate on pitching.

Picked up Archer with the 5th pick to anchor the rotation and Seung Hwan Oh as my main closer.

I wouldn’t have taken a 2nd baseman but Kinsler fell to me in the 6th so now I had a full infield. Coming back around for the 7th pick I got Jose Abreu. I finished up my top ten with Kyle Seager, Tanaka, and Cain.

Damn, this was shaping up to be a great draft. Now all I had to do was not screw it up.

Players who I coveted late and got were Carlos Gomez (12th round), Gausman (15th round), Puig (20th round), Hunter Renfroe (22nd round). Neil Walker fell to me in the 25th round. That is just crazy.

Same players on all my teams

Cameron Rupp (23rd round)
Brandon Finnegan (28th round)

The only Dodgers I have on this team are Puig and Alex Wood who I took with the 30th pick. Urias went later in the draft (15th round) than the others and I could have taken him instead of taking my first catcher Martin the 14th.

Dodger Draft notes: Three Dodgers went in the 9th round Hill, Grandal, and Maeda

Rotation:

Kershaw was the 6th pick
Kenta in the 9th
Hill in the 9th
Urias in the 15th
McCarthy 28th
Wood in the 30th (Me)
Ryu in the 27th
Kazmir – not drafted
Brock Stewart – not drafted
Ross Stripling – not drafted

Bullpen:
Jansen in the 4th
Dayton – not drafted
Pedro Baez – not drafted
Romo 34th – not drafted

Infield:
Seager in the 2nd (24th overall)
Turner in the 12
Grandal in the 9th
Gonzalez went in the 18th (latest I’ve seen for him)
Forsythe in the 22nd

Outfield:
Joc in the 18th
Puig in the 20th
Toles – not drafted
Andre – not drafted
Gutierrez – not drafted

Among my three drafts so far I like this team the most. We shall see.
The ranking comes via the Rotowire projection simulator for 5×5.

Rnd Rank First Name Last Name Team Position S/B
1 8 Manny Machado BAL SS S
2 18 Carlos Correa HOU MI S
3 17 Edwin Encarnacion CLE 1B S
4 74 Chris Archer TB SP S
5 58 Seung Hwan Oh STL Closer S
6 32 Ian Kinsler DET 2B S
7 69 Jose Abreu CWS Cor S
8 43 Kyle Seager SEA 3rd S
9 64 Masahiro Tanaka NYY SP S
10 85 Lorenzo Cain KC OF S
11 63 Stephen Piscotty STL OF S
12 249 Carlos Gomez TEX Util S
13 133 A.J. Ramos MIA Closer S
14 241 Russell Martin TOR C S
15 151 Kevin Gausman BAL SP S
16 148 Manuel Margot SD OF S
17 226 Rajai Davis OAK OF S
18 171 Jerad Eickhoff PHI SP S
19 203 Anthony DeSclafani CIN SP S
20 267 Yasiel Puig LAD OF S
21 254 Neftali Feliz MIL Closer S
22 80 Hunter Renfroe SD Bench-OF B
23 496 Cameron Rupp PHI C S
24 189 Zach Davies MIL SP S
25 181 Neil Walker NYM Bench-2b B
26 208 Jeremy Hellickson PHI Bench-SP B
27 434 Travis Jankowski SD Bench-OF B
28 276 Brandon Finnegan CIN Bench-SP B
29 230 Matt Duffy TB Bench-SS B
30 487 Alex Wood LAD Bench-SP B

Can Puig measure up to past LAD age 26 seasons?

The LAD have quite a history of breakout age 26-year-old seasons for outfielders.  I remembered about Kemp and Mondesi but had forgotten about Pedro and Frank Howard until today. When I created this list, little did I expect to see the name of Kal Daniels. For some reason, I thought he was much older when we acquired him from the Reds.

Damn, so much talent, such bad knees.

Heck, even Willie Crawford had a great age 26-year-old season.

Puig is entering his age 26 season, can he crack this tough group? Unlike almost everyone on this list Puig was already brilliant but that was three years ago. In the roto world, Puig was a number one draft pick in the spring of 2014, now he’s being drafted from round 15 – round 22. Most have given up on him being an impact player. That is when I like a player most. When the majority have passed on and are looking at the shiny new toy, just as Puig had been three years ago.

Seems like just yesterday that Matt Kemp was the toast of Dodger fans after losing the MVP to the cheating Ryan Braun . They were begging the McCourt group to sign him to a long-term extension and Ned obliged. Now he’s regularly made sport of as having a horrible contract.  That wall in Colorado and that jog home changed the Kemp landscape forever.

Before Mike Piazza showed up, I always thought Pedro Guerrero hit the ball harder than any LAD I’d ever seen. I would have loved to have seen his exit velocity.

Kal Daniels had a swing of beauty. I can always remember Orel saying “I don’t care if he’s a statue in left field give me that bat in the lineup”. Or something close to that. But his knees ended his career by the age of 28. Crazy.

Never saw Frank Howard as a Dodgers but I sure saw Hondo in Washington where he became my favorite player.

Until Yasiel Puig showed up, Raul Mondesi owned the crown for most athletic right fielder the Dodgers ever grew on the farm.  Power/Speed/Arm, Mondesi had it all and at age 26 he put it all together.

Willie Crawford owns the distinction of playing for the Dodgers at the age of seventeen, and it only took him nine more years to have his greatest season.

Andre quietly had three straight great seasons starting with his age 26 season.

Stan Javier was a part time player but he made the most of his 321 plate appearances.

Ron Fairly put up a .738 OPS but back in 1965 that was good enough for an 115 OPS+

Milton Bradley had a solid inaugural season for the Dodgers as a 26-year-old.

 

Player               OPS+  PA Year HR BB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
Matt Kemp             172 689 2011 39 74 .324 .399 .586 .986
Pedro Guerrero        156 652 1982 32 65 .304 .378 .536 .914
Kal Daniels           155 526 1990 27 68 .296 .389 .531 .920
Frank Howard          150 459 1963 28 33 .273 .330 .518 .848
Raul Mondesi          140 670 1997 30 44 .310 .360 .541 .901
Willie Crawford       140 543 1973 14 78 .295 .396 .453 .849
Andre Ethier          132 596 2008 20 59 .305 .375 .510 .885
Stan Javier           119 321 1990  3 37 .304 .384 .399 .783
Ron Fairly            115 654 1965  9 76 .274 .361 .377 .738
Milton Bradley        108 597 2004 19 71 .267 .362 .424 .786
Mike Marshall         108 362 1986 19 27 .233 .298 .439 .738
Bill Buckner          105 680 1976  7 26 .301 .326 .389 .716
Todd Hollandsworth    104 287 1999  9 24 .284 .345 .448 .793
Willie Davis          102 653 1966 11 15 .284 .302 .405 .708

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/24/2017.

Getting Puigy – LAD OF leaderboard <= age 25

With Puig entering his age 26 season, I wanted to take a look at how he looked among the LAD outfield leaderboard for his age. Using the data from the Baseball Reference play index the following tables are for LAD outfielders 25 or younger.

The hit table has Puig number six, just eight above Mike Marshall, and a good 52 below Raul Mondesi whom he’s often compared too. Tommy Davis fresh off his dynamite 1962/1963 seasons is the hit king leader. Matt Kemp made a good show for 3rd place.

Player From To Age H
Tommy Davis 1959 1964 20-25 799
Willie Davis 1960 1965 20-25 724
Matt Kemp 2006 2010 21-25 645
Bill Buckner 1969 1975 19-25 644
Raul Mondesi 1993 1996 22-25 499
Yasiel Puig 2013 2016 22-25 447
Mike Marshall 1981 1985 21-25 439
Willie Crawford 1964 1972 17-25 377
Frank Howard 1958 1962 21-25 355
Todd Hollandsworth 1995 1998 22-25 283

How about home runs?  Matt Kemp has the lead in Home Runs. Willie Davis just beats out Kemp for the lead in Doubles, and the 3-Dog leads in triples. Puig is 7th in Home Runs.

Player 2B 3B HR
Matt Kemp 107 24 89
Tommy Davis 97 20 83
Mike Marshall 77 3 71
Frank Howard 51 11 71
Raul Mondesi 93 22 70
Willie Davis 109 35 66
Yasiel Puig 84 16 57
Willie Crawford 61 21 40
Bill Buckner 93 10 31
Todd Hollandsworth 54 10 24

How about OPS? Hondo Howard makes his appearance on top of the leaderboard. Puig just nudges out Mondesi for 2nd place.

Player BA OBP SLG OPS
Frank Howard 0.282 0.333 0.51 0.843
Yasiel Puig 0.287 0.361 0.472 0.833
Raul Mondesi 0.295 0.331 0.501 0.832
Matt Kemp 0.285 0.336 0.472 0.808
Mike Marshall 0.275 0.334 0.46 0.793
Tommy Davis 0.304 0.338 0.451 0.79
Willie Crawford 0.252 0.33 0.401 0.731
Todd Hollandsworth 0.269 0.32 0.408 0.728
Willie Davis 0.267 0.304 0.406 0.709
Bill Buckner 0.286 0.317 0.377 0.694

So that is how Puig has done so far at age 25.

As we head into 2017, he is heading into his age 26 season. What does he need to do to move up the leaderboards? It will be a tall task because Matt Kemp went off at age 26, as did Howard, and Mondesi.  Matt Kemp now has a 28 point home run lead over Mondesi. Puig should pass Willie Davis and hopefully Ron Fairly. If he notches 26 or more he can catch Tommy Davis, and if Puig does that, Dodger fans will be partying in October.

Player 2B 3B HR
Matt Kemp 140 28 128
Raul Mondesi 135 27 100
Frank Howard 67 12 99
Mike Marshall 88 3 90
Tommy Davis 98 21 83
Willie Davis 140 41 77
Ron Fairly 111 19 62
Yasiel Puig 84 16 57
Willie Crawford 87 23 54
Pedro Guerrero 55 9 53
Andre Ethier 90 14 44
Bill Buckner 121 14 38
Todd Hollandsworth 66 12 33

How about age 26 OPS? Hey look, a Pedro Guerrero sighting. Oh man, did Pedro go off at age 26.  Maybe the best age 26 season ever for a LAD outfielder.  Until you see what Matt Kemp did at age 26. Wow, I may have to do an age 26 look, these guys were banging. Pedro, Kemp, Mondesi all put up a plus .900 OPS at age 26. Frank Howard wasn’t dicking around, his age 26 OPS of .848 in 1963 was good for an OPS+ of 150. I guess I know what I’ll be writing about next.

Player BA OBP SLG OPS
Pedro Guerrero 0.305 0.366 0.502 0.868
Raul Mondesi 0.299 0.339 0.511 0.85
Matt Kemp 0.294 0.35 0.496 0.846
Andre Ethier 0.299 0.364 0.482 0.846
Frank Howard 0.28 0.332 0.512 0.844
Yasiel Puig 0.287 0.361 0.472 0.833
Tommy Davis 0.303 0.337 0.448 0.785
Mike Marshall 0.268 0.328 0.456 0.784
Ron Fairly 0.27 0.361 0.402 0.763
Willie Crawford 0.262 0.346 0.413 0.759
Todd Hollandsworth 0.272 0.325 0.416 0.741
Willie Davis 0.27 0.303 0.406 0.709
Bill Buckner 0.289 0.319 0.38 0.699

 

Fangraphs looks at Puig

Eno Sarris at Fangraphs took a look at Puig and who is comps might be.

Let’s be pessimistic! Let’s cut off those good 2013 and 2014 seasons and focus on the last two years. In those years, he walked 7.4% of the time, struck out 20.6 % of the time, and hit for a .260/.323/.425 line that was 7% better that league average. That’s been paired with negative defensive value — not terrible work with the glove, as he’s ranged between -1 and -3 in that category, but below zero.

Man, I sometimes wonder about defensive metrics.  At times last year,  I thought Puig played a great right field, and I have a hard time coming to grips with the idea he was below average in right field. I guess those early season sun troubles weighed heavily.

Anyway,  I liked the offensive comps, Pedro Guerrero would work fine for me in any Dodger universe given he was one of my favorite Dodgers to ever watch swing a bat.

I’ve always held that Puig has a chance to be something akin to Roberto Clemente. That usually gets a guffaw from anyone who hears or reads that but let me make a small case. Clemente was a HOF but most don’t know the history of Clemente. He started playing when he was 20 but it was not until he was 27 that he would string together the success that has made him a household baseball name.

From age 20 – 27, Roberto only had an OPS+ of 105 even after amassing 4300 plate appearances. At age 26 Roberto was one of the top five players in the game, finally having the breakout season that many had predicted for him. But the following year, in 1962 Roberto would fall back to being just above average. Puig was one of the best players in the game in 2013 and 2014 before falling back to the disappointing levels of 2015 and 2016.

The similarities:

  • From neighboring islands Cuban and Puerto Rico
  • Both signed by the Dodgers
  • Right handed Right fielders
  • Boasting the best arm of their era
  • Early maturity issues
  • Both struggled after a quick peak
  • Massive charisma
  • Injuries
  • More of a hitter than a slugger
  • Not much for taking the walk
Player Age PA 2B 3B HR SB CS
Puig 22-25 1751 84 16 57 30 20
Clemente 20-27 4374 191 67 75 32 30
BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
Puig 153 361 0.287 0.361 0.472 0.833 133
Clemente 209 459 0.3 0.334 0.434 0.768 105

Most only remember Clemente as the HOF hero who died trying to help his fellow man, but in the beginning,  he had his issues with management and throughout his career was labeled injury prone. This is the excellent sabr bio on Clemente.

Phil Musick, a reporter who covered the Pittsburgh Pirates during the final years of Clemente’s career, said, “He was anything but perfect. He was vain, occasionally arrogant, often intolerant, unforgiving, and there were moments when I thought for sure he’d cornered the market on self-pity. Mostly, he acted as if the world had just declared all-out war on Roberto Clemente, when in fact it lavished him with an affection few men ever know.”

However, Musick added, “I know that through all of his battles . . . there was about him an undeniable charisma. Perhaps that was his true essence–he won so much of your attention and affection that you demanded of him what no man can give, perfection.”51

Sure the odds are crazy high that Puig never comes close to approaching what Clemente did, but in his favor is the fact, at his age,  he has already accomplished more than Roberto. Puig just needs to get back on that track he was on when he was the most electrifying player in baseball.

One other fun read if you are interested. What would have happened if Clemente had stayed a Brooklyn Dodger?

Clemente won two World Series championships with the Pirates during his career. If he stayed with the Dodgers, Clemente had the opportunity to garner at least a half-dozen rings, potentially making him one of the most decorated players of his generation. The bountiful Dodgers knew that when they signed Clemente in Puerto Rico that they were going to have a tough time holding him in the minor leagues while their core players aged. If Clemente spent his entire career as a Dodger, he could have certainly put their dynasty on par with the Yankees. However, the fans of Pittsburgh may never have known the spirit of Clemente that resonated far beyond the two championships he brought to the Steel City.
Read more at http://thesportspost.com/baseball-history-clemente-brooklyn/#284ygPEZSmPUFE7R.99