Gonzalez going Loney on us
The last time a starting LAD first baseman went the month of April without a home run was James Loney in 2009. It has only been done four times in LAD History. I used 80 PA as the criteria. At least Loney was hitting, Adrian is not even doing that.
Rk Player Split Year PA HR RBI OPS 2 Adrian Gonzalez April/March 2017 83 0 9 .661 8 James Loney April/March 2009 97 0 16 .810 33 Steve Garvey April/March 1982 92 0 11 .560 37 Steve Garvey April/March 1976 87 0 7 .659
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/28/2017.
Were you surprised to see Steve Garvey on this list? I sure was.
Schimpf and Schebler – Struggling or Super?
I always have my eye on Scott Schebler simply because I enjoyed him as a prospect and have been rooting hard for him to make it with the Reds. Schimpf had such a bizarre 2016 I was curious how 2017 would turn out for him.
Both of them are having a strange April and by most accounts would be considered struggling hitters. Schimpf finally lost his job, but Schebler seems to have kept his for the time being. Both of them homered yesterday giving them eleven home runs for the season.
Ryan Schimpf has seven hits in seventy-eight plate appearances. If that sounds bad it isn’t, it is horrific. But here is the fun. Four of the seven hits are home runs. Plus he has walked fifteen times in those seventy-eight plate appearances. That is a walk rate of almost 20%. None of them have been intentional. Even though he can’t hit a lick he is getting on base. A quick look shows that only seven other NL players have had at least 15 walks this year. His BABIP is .091. If bad luck had a name in 2017 it would be Ryan Schimpf. All of this got him benched yesterday. The Padres brought up Cory Spangenberg to play 3rd base. He wasn’t sent to AAA, his coach said he would still get plenty of chances and that they continue to believe in him. Schimpf bided his time, came off the bench against Fernando Rodney and proceeded to blast a game-winning three-run home run. I should almost mention that his K rate is 33%. Oh, he also has nine RBI so he’s averaging more than one RBI per hit. Who doesn’t love that?
Scott Schebler has only fifteen hits in eighty-two plate appearances and just managed to pop over the Mendoza line last night. His value, however, is in what makes up those fifteen hits. Ten of those fifteen hits are for extra bases. Seven of them are home runs. Even with a batting average of .203 and an OBP of .280, that slug% of .527 makes him a dangerous hitter. He also has a BABIP that has to go up. It currently sits at .170 but last year it was .312. My biggest disappointment with Schebler is that his penchant for minor league triples has not transferred to the major league level. Scotty hit 62 triples in the minors but only two in the majors so far. He also has fifteen RBI, so he’s averaging a RBI for every hit. Who doesn’t love that?
Dodgers lose but many things go right tonight
Even with the Dodgers losing a tough one-run game to the Giants tonight, many things outside of their control went right.
The Rockie rotation showed their shaky side as they got lit up for the second straight game by the Nationals. Overall the Rockies gave up twenty-six runs in two games, with the rotation being responsible for thirteen of those twenty-six runs.
Fernando Rodney blew a save the way that only Fernando Rodney can blow a save. With the Diamondbacks in cruise control holding a 5 – 3 lead, Rodney gave up five runs including a three-run blast by the benched Ryan Schimpf.
These are problems that I expect will continue to plague the two teams the Dodgers have to catch. Even with the Dodgers unable to put together a substantial winning streak, it is only a matter of time before it comes together.
I can imagine many fans saying “Wat” when Joe Davis said that Pedro Baez had an eighteen inning scoreless streak given he seems to hang a home run every few games. It was hard to believe, what wasn’t hard to believe was the home run that Michael Morse jacked into LF.
Cody Bellinger is off to a rough start and to tell you the truth I like it better when the prospect struggles out of the gate. Just as long as that struggle is temporary and not a career.
Alex Wood was as good as he has ever been. Six man rotation with Kershaw getting the ball every fifth day, and everyone else working around him? If you can get six innings per start from the six-man rotation you won’t need as many bullpen pieces.
The longer Adrian Gonzalez struggles the more I look forward to his hot streak.
The day Frank Howard led off
With Cody Bellinger leading off tonight, David Young wondered if he was the tallest lead off hitter in Dodger history. He found that Ex-Dodger Frank Howard had once led off but it wasn’t as a Dodger it was with the Senators. Big Hondo was 6’7 and a mountain of a man.
Once David posted that info my old mind kicked into gear and I vaguely remembered the reason. I lived in Alexandria, VA at the time and the Senators were my adopted team. I felt it had something to do with the home run race so I popped over to Baseball Reference to see if my memory was functioning for once.
It was. In 1969 on the morning of Oct 1st, both Frank Howard and Harmon Killebrew had 48 home runs. The Twins were playing the White Sox in a day game on Wednesday Afternoon. Killebrew hit his 49th home run in the first inning.
Ted Williams had Frank Howard lead off so that he could get more at-bats to try to hit his 49th home run. Hondo came up empty and for the Senators that was the last game of the year. The Twins still had one more game but Killebrew went hitless on Oct 2nd.
1969 was the year of the home run with seven players hitting forty or more home runs.
Player HR Year Age Tm OPS Pos Harmon Killebrew 49 1969 33 MIN 1.011 *5*3 Frank Howard 48 1969 32 WSA .976 *73/9H Reggie Jackson 47 1969 23 OAK 1.018 *98/H Willie McCovey 45 1969 31 SFG 1.108 *3/H Hank Aaron 44 1969 35 ATL 1.003 *9/3H Rico Petrocelli 40 1969 26 BOS .992 *6/5 Carl Yastrzemski 40 1969 29 BOS .870 *73/8
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/26/2017.
Frank Howard led MLB in home runs in 1968 and 1970 with 44 home runs but came in 2nd in 1969 when he blasted 48.
The American League was loaded in 1969 but it was the Mets who found history by defeating the Orioles in the World Series. The Orioles had won 109 games and swept a powerful Twin team. It was a shocker then and still a shocker now when I think back to that World Series.
Can Justin Turner accomplish this crazy stat?
As of right now on 04/26/2017 Justin Turner has eighty plate appearances, no home runs, and an OPS > .900.
Only one LAD in history has ever accomplished this task in March/April.
His name was Brett Butler and it was 1994.
How about other months?
Hmm. Much more common in May. Jose Offerman did it twice, Rafy Furcal once, and Juan Pierre in beast mode did it once.
Nobody did it in June
Nobody did it in July
Here we go. Ted Sizemore did it in August of 1970 one season removed from his ROY season of 1969. Sizemore would only hit one home run in 1970 and had a season OPS of only .717 so you can imagine what his other monthly splits were. If you can’t imagine let me show the ugliness:
Split PA BA OBP SLG OPS April/March 60 .255 .317 .291 .608 May 79 .282 .354 .338 .692 June 30 .192 .300 .192 .492 July 45 .282 .356 .359 .715 August 105 .429 .457 .469 .927 Sept/Oct 57 .235 .316 .275 .590
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/26/2017.
Somehow the Dodgers were able to trade Sizemore for Dick Allen in the winter of 1970. What a heist.
Nobody did it in Sept/Oct.
Turner has a hard task ahead of him over the next six games left in April. He can’t hit a home run but he has to hit to keep the OPS over .900.
Can he do it? Probably not. He’ll probably blast three home runs including one tonight making all this moot. But it was fun to research.
Dodger leaderboards to watch in 2017
Based on the starts of several LAD here are some LAD leaderboards to keep an eye on.
Justin Turner has nine doubles, twenty-five hits, five HBP, and zero home runs while carrying a .900 OPS after eighty plate appearances.
Let’s take a look at the LAD historical Double leaderboard. Turner would extrapolate out to about 72 doubles. He’ll probably end with 42.
Player 2B Year SLG OPS Pos Shawn Green 49 2003 .460 .814 *9/DH Wes Parker 47 1970 .458 .850 *3 Shawn Green 44 2000 .472 .839 *9/H8 Steve Sax 43 1986 .441 .830 *4/H Andre Ethier 42 2009 .508 .869 *9/H Raul Mondesi 42 1997 .541 .901 *9/H Adrian Gonzalez 41 2014 .482 .817 *3/HD James Loney 41 2010 .395 .723 *3/H Eric Karros 40 1999 .550 .912 *3/H Corey Seager 40 2016 .512 .877 *6/H Raul Mondesi 40 1996 .495 .830 *9
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/26/2017.
Next up are HBP. With five already in his hip pocket, that would extrapolate out to about forty HBP which as Joe Davis has noted several times would crush the current LAD record of eighteen by Alex Cora.
Player HBP Year Age PA OPS Pos Alex Cora 18 2004 28 484 .745 *4/H Lou Johnson 16 1965 30 518 .706 *78/H9 Mike Kinkade 16 2003 30 191 .687 H73/95D Lou Johnson 14 1966 31 572 .731 *79/H8 Andre Ethier 13 2009 27 685 .869 *9/H Justin Turner 13 2015 30 439 .861 *5H3/46 Yasiel Puig 12 2014 23 640 .863 *98/HD Yasiel Puig 11 2013 22 432 .925 *98/H7 Chase Utley 11 2016 37 565 .716 *4H/5 Devon White 11 1999 36 526 .744 *8/HD Mark Grudzielanek 11 2001 31 586 .711 *4 Russell Martin 11 2009 26 588 .680 *2/HD5 Justin Turner 10 2016 31 622 .832 *5H/D3 Paul Lo Duca 10 2002 30 632 .731 *23/7H Paul Lo Duca 10 2003 31 630 .712 *23/7H Mark Grudzielanek 10 1999 29 534 .812 *6/H Mark Ellis 10 2013 36 480 .674 *4H/5 Jolbert Cabrera 10 2003 30 380 .770 487H/6359 Alex Cora 10 2003 27 514 .625 *46/H Ron Hunt 10 1967 26 442 .689 *4H/5
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/26/2017.
The shock to me is that Ron Hunt only had 10 HBP in 1967. I remember Ron Hunt for only two things:
- Hunt was acquired by the Dodgers for local hero Tommy Davis in the winter of 1966.
- Ron Hunt was famous for being HBP. He lead the league seven times in being HBP but his one lone LAD season he was hit only ten times. That was the lowest amount of times he was hit in any season he accumulated over 300 plate appearances. Any one of six seasons, Ron Hunt could be the LAD leader in HBP but for some reason in 1967 he didn’t do the one thing he was famous for.
The Dodgers have been hit a lot lately. Look at the names on the top 20 list. Puig twice, Justin Turner twice, and Chase Utley. Heck at this rate Justin Turner is probably in the all-time top ten for getting HBP as a LAD. Let’s find out: He’s 13th at 32 but has a good chance to jump to 4th by the end of his season. The record is 58 by Andre Ethier. Good bet that Justin Turner will eclipse that by the time his LAD career is over if he stays for the length of his contract.
Edwin Rios is blowing up
Edwin Rios kind of took the scouts by surprise last year when he slugged twenty-seven home runs between three levels. His 110 strikeouts in only 418 at-bats gave his critics plenty to find fault in his game. Plus the 3rd baseman didn’t seem likely to stay at the position so you wouldn’t have found Rios on any top 100 prospect lists.
This year, Rios isn’t hitting as many home runs, but his game has become more well-rounded. Headed into the last week of April Rios is in the top ten of multiple offensive Texas League leaderboards. Here is a look:
- He leads the league in Batting Average at .386
- He’s second in the league in Slug at .614
- He’s third in the league in OPS at 1.017
- He’s tied for the league lead in doubles with 7
- He’s third in the league in RBI at 15
- He leads the league in hits with 27
- Advanced stats his ISO is .227, his wOBA is .430, his wRC+ is 166
He has also cut his k rate to 20.6%. The downside is his ridiculously BABIP of .430 and a miniscule walk rate of 3%. So yeah, regression is in order. But still some great work by an under the radar prospect who might not be under the radar for much longer.
The LAD just got way younger, did they get better?
With 21-year-old LAD 2017 top prospect Cody Bellinger joining the Dodgers today and 20-year-old 2016 top prospect Julio Urias set to join the team on Thursday the LAD 25-man roster just got a whole lot younger.
But will it make them better?
Joe Davis said tonight that Dave Roberts said Urias is here to stay so we can book him into the rotation. I’m not even sure who he’s replacing. Alex Wood is pitching tomorrow night and Urias Thursday night. You could say Urias is replacing Alex Wood but Alex Wood had replaced Rich Hill. So when Rich Hill comes off the DL to pitch another abbreviated game before the blister forms again, who goes?
Won’t be Kershaw
Won’t be McCarthy
Won’t be Urias
That leaves Ryu or Kenta. Both have struggled so whoever Urias actually replaces it should be better for the Dodgers. Urias has the stuff to be the second best pitcher on this team. Right now.
Bellinger is basically replacing Joc Pederson on the roster until Pederson comes off the DL. Toles will move to CF against RHP and Bellinger will play LF. Against LHP it looks like Hernandez will play CF and Bellinger will play LF. This would make Bellinger a full-time starter, unlike the player he replaced on the roster. In time Bellinger might be better than Joc Pederson but is the young Bellinger better? Probably not. But……….. it is very possible that when Joc returns it will be Toles that is replaced by Bellinger. The odds are higher that young Bellinger can be better than Toles right now.
Baseball America gives a little snapshot on what to expect from Cody Bellinger:
WHAT TO EXPECT
Bellinger will face a learning curve like most players getting their first taste of the majors, but if he can maintain his plate discipline he has a chance to provide a high on-base percentage and a few tape-measure home runs. Defensively there might be some misadventures in the outfield due to inexperience, but it also wouldn’t surprise if Bellinger shows he can hold his own. If Bellinger can adjust quickly and tap into his big power, he might just seize the Dodgers left field job for good and remain in the majors even after everyone gets healthy.
Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/what-to-expect-cody-bellinger-los-angeles-dodgers/#oeC815xXobmti58B.99
So yeah, the team is getting younger and probably better. Which is amazing when you are talking about a 21 and 20-year-old duo.
The pipeline started with Joc Pederson, last year saw Seager, Stewart, and Urias. This year we have Bellinger, and Verdugo thinks he should be considered in the near future. Eventually somebody in the Terrific Trio of Buehler/Alvarez/White will blow their way into Dodger Stadium.
This isn’t some 8-inch pipeline, this is the Alaskan pipeline on PED’s.
Masterson masterful
I’m not normally going to do a daily minor league recap but yesterday had so much going on I felt the need to write about it.
One time successful major league pitcher Justin Masterson was signed to a minor league deal to provide rotational depth at AAA and so far he’s looked good. Last night he was brilliant. While searching www.milb.com for his game I came across this little tidbit from his major league debut in 2008:
Justin Masterson, RHP, Boston Red Sox
A slew of injuries and illness may have slowed the Boston Red Sox’s starting pitchers, but they also accelerated the arrival — temporary for now — of the organization’s top Minor League arm. Right-hander Justin Masterson was summoned from Double-A Portland on April 24 for an emergency start against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.The 2006 second-rounder from San Diego State had his contract purchased just hours before the game, a 7-5 loss in which he did not factor in the decision. He tossed six innings of two-hit ball, allowing one run and walking four while striking out four. He got 11 groundball outs on his super sinker — his primary out pitch.
The converted catcher might not have been a Red Sox had the rumored offseason trade for Johan Santana gone through. He was considered one of the key players in that package.
Armed with that sinker and a plus slider, he had posted a 15-9 record and 3.74 ERA in a season and a half prior to 2008
Ha ha, a converted catcher.
“It’s just nice to be able to go out there and have consistency, to actually have an idea of where the ball is going and to be able to repeat that,” said the right-hander, who’s won 64 games in the Major Leagues. “I’m grateful to be in that spot right now, and hopefully it continues. You never know as things continue to go, but I’m thankful. I feel good.”
Masterson is only four years removed from being a 2013 All-Star with the Indians.
Masterson was a 2013 All-Star with Cleveland, going 14-10 with a 3.45 ERA and three shutouts before being derailed by injuries. He tore his oblique at the end of that season and battled various shoulder ailments over the next two years. He signed with the Red Sox in 2015 — “even with a shoulder that wasn’t the best” — and put up a 5.61 ERA in 18 outings.
But Masterson did not have the best game yesterday. That game belongs to Edwin Rios who went five for five. Rios tinkered with his swing after two games of struggling and the result was his best game as a pro.
“That last two games didn’t go too well for me and I just kind of tried to stay close and go to the left side and basically use the whole field,” Rios said. “That’s what I did today and that helped me a ton. I know when I’m going bad, I just try to work the left side and everything will just sync back up.”
I’ve heard that Rios has lost some weight and looks better at 3rd base. That would increase his value if the slugger could remain at 3rd base. Rios now has a .972 OPS for the season and is hitting over .400 over his last ten games.
And one more tidbit. A few days ago after Chase De Jong pitched well for the Mariners I wondered if the Dodgers had made a mistake in trading De Jong for Drew Jackson. No sooner had I uttered those words than Drew Jackson went on a mini tear hitting home runs in three straight games. This is notable because Jackson is mostly known for his game-changing speed. Has the power been a conscious change?
“It’s finding his authentic swing. He’s done a lot of work since coming over from Seattle to get going in a positive direction,” Class A Advanced Rancho Cucamonga manager Drew Saylor said. “It’s getting his swing on plane, finding ways to get his bat in the contact zone longer, and we’re seeing a nice little sample size of that over the last couple games. It’s more just a product of the work he’s been putting in.”
Drew now has an OPS of .982 with a nice blend of speed and power. AA should be in his cards soon as he is repeated A+ ball. This would open up SS for Brendon Davis at Rancho.
Staring up at the Rockies
may look daunting but with the right equipment and the right personnel they can be climbed and conquered. Remember the Rockies love April. August not so much.
- 2014 – On May 7th they were 22 – 14 and in first place. That would be the last time they were in 1st place
- 2015 they were 10 – 7 on April 24th. In 2016 they were 8 – 5 on April 18th.
- 2016 they were 8 – 5 on April 18th.
Eric Stephen pointed out that the LAD have only made the postseason three times after a 9 – 11 start or worse.
In case you were wondering, Dodgers have only made postseason 3 times after a start of 9-11 or worse:
1996 (8-12)
2008 (8-12)
2013 (9-11)— Eric Stephen (@truebluela) April 25, 2017
2017 will probably be the fourth time. I made need to eat these words come Oct but I have a hard time seeing a Rockie team leading from beginning to end with two rookies in the rotation. They are using Greg Holland hard for a guy who is pitching for the first time after TJ surgery. Yes, they have reinforcements coming, in Ian Desmond and David Dahl but Mark Reynolds has been tearing it up waiting for Desmond, and Parra has probably produced as much as Dahl will. The Rockies are a great offensive team built around a very shaky rotation. If they can pull off a postseason appearance with that rotation I’ll give them mucho credit.
It is only five games back, I’d say things were a hell of a lot bleaker last summer when Kershaw went down and they were staring up at a huge Giant lead. Remember how fast that lead evaporated.
Ryu looked great last night albeit it against a struggling Giant offense. At some point, Adrian Gonzalez simply has to start getting big hits.
I know Puig has had a tough row the last seven games but that includes three at the wall outs, several blistered double play shots. So I’m not worried. Yet. And that throw…….
Yasiel Puig nailed Brandon Belt at the plate with a laser throw and no, you still shouldn’t test his arm https://t.co/LtxeK7OLwD via @Cut4
— Phil Gurnee (@meercatjohn) April 25, 2017
Dodgers, Yesterday and Today 