A+ – Rancho July Stat Snapshot & Review

Hitters:

  • Top ten prospect Yusniel Diaz was just promoted to AA Tulsa. At 20 Diaz is having a solid season but nothing stands out. He is more about the scouting tools than actual production but we do have to remember he’s 20, even though he repeated the league.
  • 2016 first round pick Will Smith was also promoted to AA Tulsa. As a catcher, Smith doesn’t need the hit tool as much as Diaz. Smith stands out with his plate discipline carrying a .352 OBP even with a BA at .232. A nice 120 point spread.
  • Drew Jackson is finally at AA. Drew repeated this league after being acquired from the Marines for Chase De Jong.  At 23 I expected more from a top 10 – 20 prospect repeating this type of league. I’m not seeing anything that would suggest he’s any better than Errol Robinson or the just traded Brendon Davis.
  • Luke Raley is doing what he can to put himself on the prospect map and appears to be succeeding.  It does appear he has passed Scavuzzo on the prospect ladder but once he hits AA, that will determine if he keeps climbing or starts sliding.
  • DJ Peters has been the hitting star for Rancho. Power/Patience, you can’t beat it for a CF.
  • Ariel Sandoval is easily the biggest disappointment on this team. Maybe in the whole system when you consider the expectations that David Hood put on him.
  • I told you in the Tulsa overview how bad Johan Mieses had been for Tulsa and how good he had been in Rancho. Now you can see the numbers. Johan went into beast mode for Rancho and after 100 PA is back with Tulsa hoping to keep the bat going.
  • Should we talk about Keibert Ruiz or are you sick of him? 1.150 OPS. Never expected that and I was his biggest fan.  Guess California really agrees with him.
Name                  Age   PA  2B   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS
DJ Peters              21  448  22 .283 .386 .541  .927
Luke Raley*            22  424  15 .284 .368 .466  .834
Ibandel Isabel         22  381  10 .256 .323 .483  .805
Omar Estevez           19  371  19 .243 .304 .344  .649
Yusniel Diaz           20  374  15 .278 .343 .414  .757
Drew Jackson           23  297  16 .254 .367 .429  .796
Will Smith             22  305  15 .232 .355 .448  .803
Brandon Montgomery     21  243  12 .248 .277 .323  .600
Zach McKinstry*        22  226   8 .232 .307 .315  .622
Ariel Sandoval         21  162   4 .190 .265 .320  .585
James Kennedy*         24  149   8 .264 .362 .419  .781
Victor Roache          25  128   8 .202 .258 .437  .695
Johan Mieses           21  129  17 .353 .411 .707 1.118
Erick Mejia#           22   97   4 .230 .292 .333  .625
Errol Robinson         22   76   4 .286 .342 .514  .856
Jared Walker*          21   77   4 .224 .325 .328  .653
Logan Landon           24   67   4 .276 .364 .500  .864
Keibert Ruiz#          18   60   4 .375 .400 .750 1.150
28 Players           21.6 4164 195 .260 .339 .437  .777

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/1/2017.

Now, lets take a look at the advanced metrics via Fangraphs:

  • K% for DJ Peters is certainly worrisome, but how about that ISO and double digit BB%?
  • Keibert Ruiz has a K% below 10 and an ISO over .300. WAT
  • Will Smith looks good across the board.
Name / Age PA BB% K% wOBA / wRC+ ISO
DJ Peters / 21 455 11.40% 31.40% 0.404 / 148 0.253
Luke Raley / 22 424 7.80% 23.10% 0.371 / 127 0.182
Ibandel Isabel / 22 386 8.00% 35.00% 0.351 / 114 0.227
Omar Estevez / 19 376 7.40% 20.20% 0.298 / 79 0.099
Yusniel Diaz / 20 374 9.40% 19.50% 0.338 / 105 0.136
Will Smith / 22 305 12.10% 23.30% 0.358 / 118 0.216
Drew Jackson / 23 298 11.40% 22.50% 0.359 / 119 0.175
Brandon Montgomery / 21 243 4.10% 16.50% 0.269 / 60 0.075
Zach McKinstry / 22 232 9.10% 25.90% 0.288 / 72 0.082
Ariel Sandoval / 21 167 8.40% 36.50% 0.265 / 57 0.125
Garrett Kennedy / 24 149 10.70% 26.80% 0.354 / 116 0.155
Johan Mieses / 21 129 7.80% 29.50% 0.472 / 192 0.353
Victor Roache / 25 128 7.00% 42.20% 0.302 / 81 0.235
Erick Mejia / 22 97 8.20% 19.60% 0.283 / 69 0.103
Jared Walker / 21 77 13.00% 45.50% 0.298 / 79 0.104
Errol Robinson / 22 76 6.60% 22.40% 0.372 / 127 0.229
Logan Landon / 24 67 11.90% 16.40% 0.38 / 133 0.224
Keibert Ruiz / 18 66 6.10% 7.60% 0.471 / 192 0.35
Brendon Davis / 19 33 9.10% 39.40% 0.298 / 79 0.2

Pitchers:

  • Probably being overly optimistic but a lot of great minor league pitchers seem to be flowing through Rancho this year. Alvarez, Santana, White, Buehler are all already in AA with Walker going one extra rung to AAA. Ferguson and Smeltzer are both being successful while being young for the league. Lots to like here.
  • In looking at the numbers you’d never guess that Yadier Alvarez was the top pitching prospect headed into the season and that Dennis Santana couldn’t find his way onto most top 30 LAD prospect lists.
  • Caleb Ferguson is having a solid season for a 20-year-old in the tough hitting league and had an exceptional game last night to start August off right.

 

Name              Age   ERA GS   IP  WHIP HR9 BB9  SO9 SO/W
Adam Bray          24  3.51 14 97.1 1.110 1.4 1.8  8.8 5.00
Caleb Ferguson*    20  2.92 19 95.2 1.359 0.5 4.2  9.3 2.20
Dennis Santana     21  3.57 14 85.2 1.272 0.5 2.3  9.7 4.18
Dean Kremer        21  5.45  6 66.0 1.485 0.7 3.5 10.5 2.96
Devin Smeltzer*    21  4.72 11 61.0 1.443 1.0 1.5 10.6 7.20
Yadier Alvarez     21  5.31 11 59.1 1.449 0.5 3.8  9.3 2.44
Andrew Istler      24  3.16  0 51.1 1.266 0.5 2.1  9.5 4.50
Tony Gonsolin      23  4.79  0 47.0 1.362 0.8 2.7 10.0 3.71
Alex Hermeling     24  1.83  0 44.1 1.015 0.6 2.2  7.7 3.45
Mitchell White     22  3.72  9 38.2 1.086 0.0 3.7 11.4 3.06
Michael Boyle*     23  4.65  2 31.0 1.419 0.6 2.9  7.3 2.50
Parker Curry       23  4.06  0 31.0 1.387 0.3 2.9 12.2 4.20
Ryan Moseley       22  3.26  3 30.1 1.385 0.0 5.0  5.9 1.18
Chris Powell       24  4.50  0 28.0 1.321 1.0 1.6  9.6 6.00
Andrew Thurman     25  0.00  3 18.2 0.750 0.0 1.4  7.7 5.33
Walker Buehler     22  1.10  5 16.1 0.796 0.0 2.8 14.9 5.40
Shea Spitzbarth    22  0.57  0 15.2 0.894 0.0 2.9 15.5 5.40
Daniel Corcino     26  4.26  0 12.2 1.579 0.7 2.8  9.2 3.25
Kevin Brown        25  7.30  0 12.1 2.108 0.7 5.8 10.9 1.88
Wes Helsabeck*     24  1.59  0 11.1 1.324 0.0 5.6 15.1 2.71
Isaac Anderson     23 10.13  1 10.2 1.875 0.0 3.4  7.6 2.25
Sven Schueller     21  4.50  0 10.0 1.600 0.9 6.3  4.5 0.71

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/1/2017.

Taking a look at the advanced pitching metrics from Fangraphs:

  • No wonder I like Dennis Santana. For a guy who they say doesn’t have the command he sure looks like he has command.
  • You can see that the one bugaboo for Caleb Ferguson is his command, the K% is solid.
  • Mitch White and Walker Buehler are hard to hit.
  • Smeltzer has the lowest BB% on the team and a nice K% but when they make contact they almost put up a .300 BA.
  • Nothing stands out for Yadier Alveraz here, so, for now, it is all about scouting.
Name / Age IP K% BB% K-BB% AVG
Adam Bray / 24 97.1 23.90% 4.80% 19.10% 0.236
Caleb Ferguson / 20 95.2 24.20% 11.00% 13.20% 0.237
Dennis Santana / 21 85.2 24.70% 5.90% 18.80% 0.257
Dean Kremer / 21 66 26.20% 8.80% 17.40% 0.272
Devin Smeltzer / 21 61 26.40% 3.70% 22.70% 0.299
Yadier Alvarez / 21 59.1 23.30% 9.50% 13.70% 0.257
Andrew Istler / 24 51.1 26.00% 5.80% 20.20% 0.272
Tony Gonsolin / 23 47 26.30% 7.10% 19.20% 0.272
Alex Hermeling / 24 44.1 21.40% 6.20% 15.20% 0.207
Mitchell White / 22 38.2 30.80% 10.10% 20.80% 0.186
Parker Curry / 23 31 30.90% 7.40% 23.50% 0.264
Michael Boyle / 23 31 18.70% 7.50% 11.20% 0.276
Ryan Moseley / 22 30.1 16.10% 13.70% 2.40% 0.236
Chris Powell / 24 28 24.40% 4.10% 20.30% 0.276
Andrew Thurman / 25 18.2 23.50% 4.40% 19.10% 0.169
Walker Buehler / 22 16.1 42.90% 7.90% 34.90% 0.14
Shea Spitzbarth / 22 15.2 45.00% 8.30% 36.70% 0.164

 

AA – Tulsa July Stat Snapshot & Review

Hitters:

  • Two of the main prospects Edwin Rios and Kyle Farmer are already gone. Farmer hit AAA on his way to become a folk hero in Los Angeles. Edwin Rios is in AAA and doing what he does best. Hit.
  • The other main prospect is Will Smith but he got hurt as soon as he arrived so he’s just a tiny footnote for now.
  • Four infielders are trying to make their case to be the next major league utility infielder. Jose Fernandez, Errol Robinson, Tim Locastro, and Erick Mejia. I’d probably bet on on Errol Robinson.
  • Henry Ramos crushed it during his time here, and just got promoted to AAA where he went 4 for 4 in his OKC debut. Ramos has never hit like this so I don’t know what to make of him.
  • The power hitting Peter O’Brien just couldn’t get it going and has been optioned off the 40 man roster. O’Brien has 128 minor league home runs but didn’t hit many here.
  • Jacob Scavazzo was ranked 30th by BA and David Hood coming into this season. The left fielder is repeating this league and not even doing as well as his mediocre 2016. Doesn’t look good for him.
Name              Age  PA 2B HR SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS
Tim Locastro       24 419 21  8 22  5 .285 .366 .429  .795
Jose Fernandez*    29 369 16 16  0  2 .306 .366 .498  .864
Matt Beaty*        24 354 21 13  3  3 .309 .379 .505  .883
Edwin Rios*        23 332 21 15  1  1 .317 .358 .533  .891
Erick Mejia#       22 279 10  4 18  4 .302 .367 .416  .784
Jacob Scavuzzo     23 267 11 14  1  1 .226 .266 .440  .705
Johan Mieses       21 224  5 10  0  0 .133 .214 .305  .520
Wynston Sawyer     25 201 14  4  1  2 .277 .333 .429  .763
Kyle Garlick       25 189  8 12  1  0 .259 .317 .511  .829
Paul Hoenecke*     26 184 11  7  1  0 .220 .255 .405  .660
Kyle Farmer        26 141  7  3  1  0 .339 .411 .468  .879
Errol Robinson     22 139  4  1  5  3 .293 .367 .366  .733
Michael Ahmed      25 120  5  6  4  2 .292 .367 .509  .876
Henry Ramos#       25 101  4  5  1  0 .416 .465 .652 1.117
Peter OBrien       26  98  6  6  0  0 .247 .347 .529  .876
Zach McKinstry*    22  45  1  0  0  0 .256 .356 .333  .689
Darien Tubbs       22  45  3  0  4  1 .289 .372 .368  .741
Will Smith         22   4  0  0  1  0 .500 .750 .500 1.250

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/1/2017.

Looking at Fangraphs advanced stats we can see a few things.

  • Kyle Farmer had the best walk rate and one of the best strikeout rates.
  • Johan Mieses didn’t make much contact during his first attempt at AA. He was sent back to Rancho where he excelled for a few weeks and is now back with Tulsa. Interesting to see if they fixed his swing in Rancho or if it was just the level of competition.
  • Matt Beaty might be someone to keep an eye on.  Great contact skills with a bit of power.
Name / Age PA wOBA / wRC+ BB% K% ISO
Tim Locastro / 24 420 0.363 / 124 5.20% 13.30% 0.144
Jose Miguel Fernandez / 29 369 0.387 / 140 6.50% 8.90% 0.192
Matt Beaty / 24 354 0.395 / 145 9.00% 11.60% 0.196
Edwin Rios / 23 332 0.388 / 141 5.10% 20.80% 0.216
Erick Mejia / 22 279 0.355 / 118 9.00% 20.10% 0.114
Jacob Scavuzzo / 23 267 0.31 / 88 4.50% 28.80% 0.214
Johan Mieses / 21 224 0.236 / 38 7.60% 39.70% 0.172
Wynston Sawyer / 25 201 0.344 / 111 6.50% 20.90% 0.152
Kyle Garlick / 25 189 0.368 / 127 6.30% 28.60% 0.253
Paul Hoenecke / 26 184 0.293 / 77 3.80% 23.90% 0.185
Quincy Latimore / 28 166 0.295 / 78 3.00% 20.50% 0.097
Kyle Farmer / 26 141 0.397 / 146 11.30% 9.20% 0.129
Errol Robinson / 22 139 0.34 / 108 10.10% 18.00% 0.073
Michael Ahmed / 25 120 0.39 / 142 10.80% 29.20% 0.217
Henry Ramos / 25 101 0.488 / 208 9.90% 14.90% 0.236
Stetson Allie / 26 99 0.287 / 72 9.10% 41.40% 0.125
Peter O’Brien / 26 98 0.389 / 141 12.20% 41.80% 0.282
Blake Gailen / 32 88 0.383 / 137 8.00% 15.90% 0.21
Garrett Kennedy / 24 50 0.316 / 92 14.00% 20.00% 0.175
Tyler Holt / 28 47 0.228 / 33 12.80% 29.80% 0
Darien Tubbs / 22 45 0.345 / 112 8.90% 13.30% 0.079
Zach McKinstry / 22 45 0.306 / 85 13.30% 17.80% 0.077
Jack Murphy / 29 27 0.216 / 24 11.10% 22.20% 0
Logan Landon / 24 21 0.319 / 94 0.00% 9.50% 0.143
Brayan Morales / 21 19 0.233 / 36 5.30% 26.30% 0.118

Pitchers:

  • The top pitching prospect Walker Buehler was promoted to AAA after showing off in Tulsa.
  • Scott Barlow was also promoted to AAA after being the best pitcher on the Tulsa staff. Barlow has been lit up in AAA so far.
  • Yaisel Sierra followed Barlow and Buehler to AAA where he’s trying to make a case to be part of the Dodger bullpen.
  • Edward Paredes had better luck than Sierra in making his case to be part of the Dodger bullpen. Parades pitched briefly for AAA before the Dodgers called him up. While in Tulsa, Parades excelled.
  • Sborz and Sopko were both ranked in the BA top 30 and David Hood top 30 but both haven’t shown they will be in the Dodger future as starters.
  • Just showing up are Yadier Alvarez, Mitch White, and Dennis Santana. All three have the potential to be major league starters.

 

Name               Age  ERA   IP BB SO  WHIP   H9  BB9  SO9 SO/W
Josh Sborz          23 3.80 90.0 46 58 1.411  8.1  4.6  5.8 1.26
Scott Barlow        24 2.02 75.2 29 87 0.952  5.1  3.4 10.3 3.00
Andrew Sopko        22 4.40 71.2 39 46 1.549  9.0  4.9  5.8 1.18
Colt Hynes*         32 3.70 56.0 12 42 1.321 10.0  1.9  6.8 3.50
Corey Copping       23 3.17 54.0 26 48 1.185  6.3  4.3  8.0 1.85
Karch Kowalczyk     26 2.88 50.0 17 39 1.360  9.2  3.1  7.0 2.29
Yaisel Sierra       26 2.54 49.2 16 64 1.268  8.5  2.9 11.6 4.00
Walker Buehler      22 3.49 49.0 15 64 1.122  7.3  2.8 11.8 4.27
Michael Johnson*    26 2.96 48.2 22 56 1.212  6.8  4.1 10.4 2.55
Tim Shibuya         27 1.74 46.2  5 22 0.879  6.9  1.0  4.2 4.40
Isaac Anderson      23 8.74 45.1 19 32 1.831 12.7  3.8  6.4 1.68
Ralston Cash        25 5.28 44.1 17 61 1.534 10.4  3.5 12.4 3.59
Ivan Vieitez        24 4.97 38.0 19 21 1.658 10.4  4.5  5.0 1.11
Shea Spitzbarth     22 2.41 37.1 16 31 1.286  7.7  3.9  7.5 1.94
Edward Paredes*     30 2.81 32.0 12 45 1.406  9.3  3.4 12.7 3.75
David Hale          29 3.52 23.0  5 16 1.478 11.3  2.0  6.3 3.20
Eddie Gamboa        32 2.14 21.0  9 17 1.095  6.0  3.9  7.3 1.89
Layne Somsen        28 2.08 13.0 11 10 2.231 12.5  7.6  6.9 0.91
Dennis Santana      21 4.09 11.0  8  9 1.364  5.7  6.5  7.4 1.13
Yadier Alvarez      21 3.12  8.2 10 10 2.538 12.5 10.4 10.4 1.00
Mitchell White      22 3.86  7.0  4  3 1.286  6.4  5.1  3.9 0.75

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/1/2017.

Looking at the advanced metrics from Fangraphs:

Barlow had the metrics, great K%, great walk%, and his BA against was tiny.  There was good reason to think he had taken a big step up until he was faced AAA hitting.

Those metrics show why Walker Buehler is the best pitching prospect. Sierra can match the metrics but he’s doing it a one inning pitcher. Course Walker is only doing it as a 4 or 5 inning pitcher.

Name / Age IP K% BB% K-BB% AVG
Josh Sborz / 23 90 14.80% 11.80% 3.10% 0.237
Andrew Sopko / 22 76.2 15.10% 11.60% 3.50% 0.255
Scott Barlow / 24 75.2 29.50% 9.80% 19.70% 0.163
Colt Hynes / 32 56 17.40% 5.00% 12.50% 0.274
Corey Copping / 23 55 21.50% 11.40% 10.10% 0.19
Karch Kowalczyk / 26 50 18.20% 7.90% 10.30% 0.26
Yaisel Sierra / 26 49.2 30.30% 7.60% 22.80% 0.242
Walker Buehler / 22 49 32.80% 7.70% 25.10% 0.222
Michael Johnson / 26 48.2 26.80% 10.50% 16.30% 0.199
Tim Shibuya / 27 46.2 12.20% 2.80% 9.40% 0.207
Isaac Anderson / 23 45.1 14.40% 8.50% 5.80% 0.323
Ralston Cash / 25 44.1 29.90% 8.30% 21.60% 0.276
Ivan Vieitez / 24 38 12.30% 11.10% 1.20% 0.29
Shea Spitzbarth / 22 37.1 19.10% 9.90% 9.30% 0.219
Edward Paredes / 30 32 32.10% 8.60% 23.60% 0.268
Chris Rearick / 29 23.1 17.30% 9.10% 8.20% 0.327
David Hale / 29 23 15.50% 4.90% 10.70% 0.302
Eddie Gamboa / 32 21 19.80% 10.50% 9.30% 0.192
Layne Somsen / 28 15.2 15.00% 15.00% 0.00% 0.279
Jeremy Bleich / 30 11.2 16.70% 9.30% 7.40% 0.347
Dennis Santana / 21 11 19.20% 17.00% 2.10% 0.184
Yadier Alvarez / 21 8.2 20.80% 20.80% 0.00% 0.324
Andrew Thurman / 25 8.1 12.80% 18.00% -5.10% 0.226

Kenta and Ryu add to their game score leaderboards

Kenta Maeda put up a game score of 78 last night and if you happen to think that was one of his best games ever, you’d be correct. It was the second best game of his career using game score as the criteria.

Date         Opp   Rslt  IP H ER BB SO GSc
2016-07-10   SDP  W 3-1 7.0 2  1  0 13  82
2017-08-01   ATL  W 3-2 7.0 2  0  1  6  78
2017-06-27   LAA  W 4-0 7.0 4  0  0  6  75
2016-04-23   COL  W 4-1 6.1 3  0  1  8  74
2017-05-10   PIT  W 5-2 8.1 5  2  0  5  70
2016-09-05   ARI W 10-2 6.1 3  1  1  8  70
2016-04-17   SFG  W 3-1 7.0 4  1  3  7  69

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/2/2017.

Ryu pitched a gem last Sunday matching Bumgarner pitch for pitch. Ryu had a game score of 73, which was his 7th best game score but the first time he had cracked a game score of 70 since August 31st, 2014. I don’t think many were betting on Ryu to

  1. Be in the rotation in late July
  2. Have over  80 successful innings under his belt
  3. Clock in a game score over 70

What if the best is yet to come for Ryu?

Date         Opp  Rslt  IP H ER BB SO GSc
2013-05-28   LAA W 3-0 9.0 2  0  0  7  90
2014-04-11   ARI W 6-0 7.0 2  0  1  8  80
2014-07-13   SDP W 1-0 6.0 2  0  0 10  78
2013-07-27   CIN W 4-1 7.0 2  1  1  9  77
2014-08-07   LAA W 7-0 7.0 2  0  1  4  76
2014-03-30   SDP L 1-3 7.0 3  0  3  7  75
2017-07-30   SFG W 3-2 7.0 5  0  1  7  73
2013-09-16   ARI L 1-2 8.0 2  2  1  4  73
2014-08-31   SDP W 7-1 7.0 4  1  0  7  72
2013-08-08   STL W 5-1 7.0 5  0  0  7  72
2013-04-25   NYM W 3-2 7.0 3  1  3  8  72
2014-04-17   SFG W 2-1 7.0 4  0  1  3  71
2013-09-24   SFG W 2-1 7.0 4  1  1  6  70

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/2/2017.

Chasing Piazza / Robinson / Green / McGwire with number 29

With that blast tonight, Cody is still way in front of the Piazza pace, somewhat in front of the Frank Robinson pace, almost right on the Shawn Green pace, but still way behind the McGwire pace.  Should be noted that since both Green and McGwire hit 49 home runs, Shawn Green would hit 19 home runs over the final two months compared to only 12 for McGwire.

Player PA HR HR/PA Aug 1st Total Leader Year
Mike Piazza 531 29 18.31 21 35 LAD Rookie HR 1993
Frank Robinson 505 29 17.41 24 38 NL Rookie HR 1956
Mark McGwire 302 29 10.41 37 49 AL Rookie HR 1987
Shawn Green 443 29 15.28 30 49 LAD All time HR 2001
Cody Bellinger 334 29 11.52 29 ??? Chasing 2017

f this confusing here is a quick legend.

PA – this is the number of plate appearances it took for each player to reach 29 home runs. We used 20 home runs because that is where Bellinger is right now. This would be within 4 PA of accuracy as I didn’t check the game log for the specific plate appearance they hit the home run.

HR – This is a marker showing you 29 home runs.

HR/PA – this is the home runs per plate appearance pace when they each hit their 29th home run.

Total HR through August 1st

Total – season home run total

Leader – this is why they are on the list. For example Mike Piazza is the LAD Rookie Home Run Leader

Year – this is the year they accomplished the home run record that Cody Bellinger is chasing

Checking in on Tony and Tony with Fangraphs

With so many writers you can almost always count on Fangraphs to have written something about someone and sure enough, they have a nice article up about the Dodgers two newest relief pitchers.

Of course, it is not pleasant reading for Dodger fans. The title is The Best Reliever Traded at the Deadline by Eno Sarris but not only did the Dodgers not acquire the best relief pitcher yesterday, Fangraphs feels they acquired the worst in Tony Cingrani.

We do have this nugget about Cingrani:

But there’s also effective velocity. Cingrani strides well compared to the shorter-striding Jeffress and Wilson. His perceived velocity is 94.5 to Jeffress’ 90.7 and Wilson’s 92.7. So the former Reds lefty with the big fastball and the long arms and the hardest slider of his career, that’s the guy that has the best velocity this season.

So while Cingrani does not throw the hardest per the gun he has the best-perceived velocity of the bunch.  That was the only good thing they had to say about Cingrani.

Onto Tony Watson. His exit velocity has been one of the best, ranking 2nd just behind Rich Hill.  He’s also the best over the past three years at strikeouts. He has a great historical record against left-hand hitters.

Facing a lefty? Tony Watson and Justin Wilson have been lights out against them for a while now.

Before even looking at metrics I was always a big Cingrani fan just from watching him pitch. He has a great fastball but the metrics clearly show he’s been very hittable, particularly the home run.  Will that change? Fangraphs says the metrics say no, I’m going to bet on some tweaks here and there since the Dodgers acquired him for a reason and bet on him being effective for us.

A year ago we would have loved to have gotten Tony Watson but a year has passed and his numbers have tumbled. Still, we got him for a reason and hopefully, the reason was simply that we couldn’t get Brad Hand.

We need one of the two to work out and we have eight weeks to find out which one or both will help in October.

AAA – Oklahoma Dodgers – July Snapshot

The hitters:

Again I ask, why is Ike Davis in our system?

Some amazing plate discipline by both Verdugo and Willie Calhoun. Hope Willie puts it to good use for the Rangers. He’s a hitter.  Verdugo has a pretty poor ISO. Even more so when you realize he is in the PCL.

Name                Age  PA 2B HR RBI   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
Willie Calhoun*      22 414 24 23  67 .298 .357 .574 .931
Alex Verdugo*        21 406 22  4  54 .326 .397 .444 .840
OKoyea Dickson       27 381 20 22  65 .243 .328 .508 .836
Charlie Culberson    28 312  9  3  26 .254 .310 .345 .655
Max Muncy*           26 285 16  9  35 .299 .396 .484 .880
Trayce Thompson      26 262  8  7  25 .206 .268 .361 .630
Drew Maggi           28 218 12  5  22 .288 .387 .435 .822
Scott Van Slyke      30 208 12  5  20 .242 .332 .390 .722
Bobby Wilson         34 197 10 10  29 .239 .316 .466 .782
Kyle Farmer          26 190 13  6  29 .316 .363 .503 .866
Brett Eibner         28 128  4  4  14 .231 .289 .385 .674
Edwin Rios*          23  76  3  5  11 .261 .329 .522 .851
Todd Cunningham#     28  53  6  0   4 .364 .453 .545 .998

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/1/2017.

And per Fangraphs:

 

Name / Age PA wOBA / wRC+ BB% K% ISO BABIP
Todd Cunningham / 28 53 0.435 /  160 9.40% 15.10% 0.182 0.432
Willie Calhoun / 22 414 0.39 /  131 8.70% 11.80% 0.276 0.289
Max Muncy / 26 285 0.386 /  129 12.60% 21.40% 0.184 0.366
Kyle Farmer / 26 190 0.376 /  122 5.30% 16.30% 0.186 0.357
Alex Verdugo / 21 406 0.373 /  120 10.30% 9.10% 0.118 0.35
Drew Maggi / 28 218 0.367 /  117 12.40% 20.60% 0.147 0.353
Edwin Rios / 23 76 0.358 /  110 7.90% 26.30% 0.261 0.295
O’Koyea Dickson / 27 381 0.354 /  108 10.00% 20.70% 0.264 0.25
Mike Freeman / 29 139 0.346 /  103 9.40% 22.30% 0.066 0.407
Bobby Wilson / 34 197 0.336 /  96 9.10% 19.80% 0.227 0.252
Scott Van Slyke / 30 209 0.324 /  88 9.10% 25.80% 0.148 0.315
Brett Eibner / 28 128 0.295 /  70 7.00% 26.60% 0.154 0.288
Charlie Culberson / 28 312 0.292 /  67 7.40% 16.30% 0.091 0.3
Ike Davis / 30 93 0.284 /  62 6.50% 34.40% 0.2 0.275
Trayce Thompson / 26 262 0.276 /  57 8.00% 26.30% 0.155 0.256
Jack Murphy / 29 108 0.189 /  0 11.10% 25.90% 0.043 0.176

The Pitchers:

The only conclusion you can come to is that Wilmer Font has been a stud.

Name                 Age   ERA    IP   H  BB  SO  WHIP   H9 HR9 BB9  SO9  SO/W
Justin Masterson      32  4.31 112.2  98  52 115 1.331  7.8 0.5 4.2  9.2  2.21
Wilmer Font           27  3.61 107.1  91  28 147 1.109  7.6 0.8 2.3 12.3  5.25
Trevor Oaks           24  3.64  84.0  87  18  72 1.250  9.3 0.5 1.9  7.7  4.00
Fabio Castillo        28  4.41  65.1  62  24  72 1.316  8.5 1.1 3.3  9.9  3.00
Jair Jurrjens         31  4.64  54.1  63  18  44 1.491 10.4 1.0 3.0  7.3  2.44
Madison Younginer     26  4.56  53.1  56  21  63 1.444  9.5 1.4 3.5 10.6  3.00
Joe Broussard         26  3.27  44.0  44  11  48 1.250  9.0 1.0 2.3  9.8  4.36
Jacob Rhame           24  3.73  41.0  42   8  49 1.220  9.2 0.9 1.8 10.8  6.13
Jeremy Bleich*        30  2.23  36.1  26   3  33 0.798  6.4 0.7 0.7  8.2 11.00
Justin Marks*         29  4.37  35.0  32  14  30 1.314  8.2 0.5 3.6  7.7  2.14
Scott Barlow          24  7.24  32.1  37  23  36 1.856 10.3 1.7 6.4 10.0  1.57
Layne Somsen          28  2.35  30.2  26  13  32 1.272  7.6 0.9 3.8  9.4  2.46
Josh Ravin            29  4.66  29.0  24  13  45 1.276  7.4 0.6 4.0 14.0  3.46
Steve Geltz           29  3.13  23.0  18  10  23 1.217  7.0 0.8 3.9  9.0  2.30
David Hale            29  4.03  22.1  23   5  13 1.254  9.3 0.4 2.0  5.2  2.60
Patrick Schuster*     26  6.16  19.0  25   7  14 1.684 11.8 1.4 3.3  6.6  2.00
Yaisel Sierra         26  0.79  11.1  11   8   8 1.676  8.7 0.0 6.4  6.4  1.00
Walker Buehler        22  4.50  10.0   6   6  15 1.200  5.4 0.0 5.4 13.5  2.50
Adam Liberatore*      30  0.93   9.2   5   1   9 0.621  4.7 0.0 0.9  8.4  9.00
Jason Wheeler*        26 10.38   8.2  16   2   3 2.077 16.6 1.0 2.1  3.1  1.50
Edward Paredes*       30  0.00   8.1   4   1  14 0.600  4.3 0.0 1.1 15.1 14.00
Tommy Layne*          32  3.18   5.2   3   6   3 1.588  4.8 1.6 9.5  4.8  0.50
Grant Dayton*         29  7.71   4.2   9   1   7 2.143 17.4 1.9 1.9 13.5  7.00
38 Players          27.6  4.16 944.0 910 321 994 1.304  8.7 0.8 3.1  9.5  3.10

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/1/2017.

and per Fangraphs:

Name Age IP K% BB% K-BB% AVG
Justin Masterson 32 112.2 23.00% 10.40% 12.60% 0.229
Wilmer Font 27 107.1 33.30% 6.40% 27.00% 0.221
Trevor Oaks 24 84 21.10% 5.30% 15.80% 0.271
Fabio Castillo 28 65.1 25.80% 8.60% 17.20% 0.248
Jair Jurrjens 31 54.1 18.50% 7.60% 10.90% 0.286
Madison Younginer 26 53.1 27.80% 9.30% 18.50% 0.272
Joe Broussard 26 44 26.00% 6.00% 20.00% 0.254
Jacob Rhame 24 41 28.80% 4.70% 24.10% 0.259
Jeremy Bleich 30 36.1 24.30% 2.20% 22.10% 0.196
Justin Marks 29 35 20.00% 9.30% 10.70% 0.235
Scott Barlow 24 32.1 22.40% 14.30% 8.10% 0.274
Julio Urias 20 31.1 26.00% 12.20% 13.80% 0.185
Layne Somsen 28 30.2 25.20% 10.20% 15.00% 0.228
Josh Ravin 29 29 36.00% 10.40% 25.60% 0.216
Steve Geltz 29 23 23.70% 10.30% 13.40% 0.207
David Hale 29 22.1 14.10% 5.40% 8.70% 0.264
Brandon Morrow 32 20 23.90% 5.40% 18.50% 0.291
Patrick Schuster 26 19 16.50% 8.20% 8.20% 0.321
Yaisel Sierra 26 11.1 15.40% 15.40% 0.00% 0.25
Walker Buehler 22 10 35.70% 14.30% 21.40% 0.167
Adam Liberatore 30 9.2 25.70% 2.90% 22.90% 0.147
Joe Gunkel 25 9 16.70% 0.00% 16.70% 0.333
Jason Wheeler 26 8.2 7.00% 4.70% 2.30% 0.39
Edward Paredes 30 8.1 46.70% 3.30% 43.30% 0.138

July is in the books

The best July in Dodger history is in the books.

Year    W  L W-L%
2017   20  3 .870
1962   20  6 .769
2013   19  6 .760
2004   21  7 .750
1997   20  7 .741
1985   20  7 .741
1961   19  7 .731
1960   19  7 .731
1963   21 10 .677

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/1/2017.

Batting Status for July 2017:

Look at all that hitting.  Four starters with an OPS over .900  Six starters with an OPS over .800.  Puig just missing at .797.  It doesn’t even feel like Joc Pederson is doing anything and yet here he is with an .878 OPS.

Trayce Thompson is quite the outlier here.

Player              HR PA  H 2B RBI   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS
Corey Seager         6 98 30  8  14 .333 .388 .622 1.010
Chris Taylor         3 97 37 10  15 .394 .412 .660 1.072
Justin Turner        5 94 19  3  11 .260 .404 .507  .911
Cody Bellinger       4 94 21  2  13 .263 .372 .463  .835
Logan Forsythe       1 87 18  5   9 .254 .368 .366  .734
Yasiel Puig          4 74 19  1  10 .271 .311 .486  .797
Yasmani Grandal      4 62 19  5  11 .317 .339 .600  .939
Joc Pederson         3 60 14  5   5 .264 .350 .528  .878
Enrique Hernandez    2 51  8  0   3 .190 .333 .381  .714
Austin Barnes        2 42 10  0   5 .286 .405 .457  .862
Chase Utley          1 40 10  3   4 .278 .350 .444  .794
Trayce Thompson      0 25  2  1   1 .087 .160 .217  .377

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/1/2017.

Pitching Stats for July 2017:
Basically, everyone was good to great except Brandon McCarthy and Kenta Maaeda. Look at the work put in by the long men Stripling and Stewart.
Rich Hill was fantastic.

Player              G SO   ERA GS   IP BB  WHIP  SO9 SO/W   OPS
Rich Hill           5 40  1.45  5 31.0  5 0.774 11.6 8.00  .509
Clayton Kershaw     4 33  0.72  4 25.0  4 0.760 11.9 8.25  .422
Alex Wood           4 23  4.01  4 24.2  7 1.216  8.4 3.29  .680
Kenta Maeda         4 13  3.86  4 18.2  6 1.500  6.3 2.17  .815
Brandon McCarthy    3  9  6.75  3 14.2  5 1.841  5.5 1.80  .943
Kenley Jansen      12 16  2.92  0 12.1  3 1.135 11.7 5.33  .663
Hyun-Jin Ryu        2 12  1.50  2 12.0  4 1.167  9.0 3.00  .633
Brock Stewart       5  7  0.00  1 11.2  3 1.029  5.4 2.33  .493
Brandon Morrow     12 14  4.09  0 11.0  2 1.091 11.5 7.00  .522
Pedro Baez         11  8  1.69  0 10.2  1 0.938  6.8 8.00  .594
Josh Fields        10 10  2.61  0 10.1  4 0.968  8.7 2.50  .559
Ross Stripling      6  8  0.90  0 10.0  2 0.700  7.2 4.00  .434
Luis Avilan        12 12  2.08  0  8.2  2 0.692 12.5 6.00  .573
Josh Ravin          2  1  0.00  0  3.1  1 0.300  2.7 1.00  .091
Edward Paredes      2  1  0.00  0  2.1  0 0.000       3.9  .000
Grant Dayton        2  0 27.00  0  1.1  0 4.500       0.0 1.900

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/1/2017.

MLB Prospect Top 30 Update

With Willie Calhoun, AJ Alexy, Brendon Davis, and Oneil Cruz being traded, four new spots opened up on the MLB Prospect top 30 ranking. Brock Stewart has also graduated off the list opening up a 5th spot.

3rd round pick in the 2017 draft, Connor Wong takes the 26th spot. Wong is a 21-year-old catcher who just recently started playing in the full season MidWest League. It will be interesting to see who ends up with the better professional career. The recently traded Hendrik Clementina or Connor Wong. The Dodgers now have Ruiz / Smith Farmer / Wong as catchers in the top 30. Wong is once again along the lines of Barnes/Farmer/Smith in that he is a converted catcher from an infielder who can play 2nd/3rd or catch. Wong has above average speed and might be the fastest catcher in the group.

Cristian Santana checks onto the list at number 27. Cristian is a 20-year-old infielder who has mashed in 2017. He destroyed the Pioneer League and is now the cleanup hitter for the Loons in the MidWest League.  He profiles as a 3rd baseman. He’ll need to clean up his plate discipline but right is simply hitting everything thrown at him. Cristian won our June 26-July2nd Farm Factory award so we have been keeping an eye on him.

Cristian Santana – A – Loons – Santana started out the week playing in the short-season rookie league in Ogden but ended the week with the Great Lake Loons in the full-season Midwest League.  I noted earlier in the week how Santana was making a mockery of the pitching at the rookie league level and the Dodgers agreed,  promoting him the next day. For the week,  Santana went eleven for twenty-three with two home runs. Santana is only 20-years-old so he’s not old for the Loons. He played two games at 2nd base while in Ogden but has played only 3rd for the Loons.

Right handed relief pitcher Jacob Rhame is back on the list at 28. He has been off and on a few times. The 24-year-old has been in AAA all year and while his performance has been solid he has been unable to get the call the majors. He can bring the heat, but evidently, that is his only above average pitch.

Left handed outfielder Luke Raley got the 29th slot. Luke was drafted in the 7th round of the 2016 draft.  He’s already 22 and has been in Rancho all year. Playing RF and LF he has produced offensively though he has a 23% strikeout ratio.

The final spot at 30 went to  22-year-old infielder Errol Robinson. Errol was drafted in the 6th round of the 2016 draft just one spot in front of Luke Raley.  Errol is already in AA ball having played at three levels in 2017.  I was a little surprised to see that the scouting report on his speed says only average since he has stolen 34 bases while being only caught seven times so far in his professional career. The scouting reports say he is a real shortstop and with Brendon Davis gone he is now the 4th ranked SS in the system (Lux, Jackson, Brito). I’m still not sure how Drew Jackson is ranked in the top 30 if Errol is only a 30. Errol is the same age, the Dodgers have him in AA, he blew by the California League and his holding his own very nicely in AA while Drew Jackson continues to struggle in the California League.

 

 

 

 

 

The pipeline remains full

This was a stressful deadline. I don’t know if the Dodgers have done enough but they did make waves with the Yu Darvish acquisition and certainly moved the October needle in a positive direction.  I think most of us would have like Justin Wilson given the price that was paid for him but it did not happen.  We couldn’t make the Padre’s trade Hand or be reasonable about it.

I’m still amazed that the likes Brock Stewart, Alex Verdugo and many other prospects are still here.  This deadline leaves the Dodgers loaded now, and in the future.

They kept Alex Verdugo. He may not play at all in 2017 and the Dodger depth in the outfield headed into 2018 would be Puig/Pederson/Bellinger Toles/Verdugo/Taylor/Hernandez/Eibner/Trayce Thompson with Edwin Rios now taking balls in the outfield.  That is five major league starting outfielders,  one super utility outfielder, one top prospect along with two backup types, and another wild card prospect in Rios.

They kept Brock Stewart along with ALL the top pitching prospects in the system.  The rotational depth looking toward 2018 is now Kershaw/Wood/Hill/Kenta/Ryu/McCarthy and Stewart /  Buehler / Font / Stripling / Oaks without doing anything this winter. That is six major league starters, one Brock, one top pitching prospect, and three soldiers.  Urias need not apply until 2019.

The infield is also covered.

1st – Adrian (last year) and Bellinger in case Adrian does go bellinger up.  Edwin Rios is also now playing some 1st base at AAA. That is a borderline HOTVG, ROY/All-Star/MVP vote getter as his backup or maybe it is the other way around headed into 2018. And Rios who just keeps hitting and hitting.

2nd – Forsythe / Taylor / Hernandez / Barnes – nobody in the immediate pipeline so two starting 2nd baseman and a super utility man. Plus whatever Barnes is.

SS – Seager / Taylor / Hernandez – one MVP type, one guy who could start anywhere, one super utility guy.

3rd – Turner / Forsythe / Hernandez / Taylor – one MVP type, one guy who could start at 2nd or 3rd, one guy who could start anywhere, and one super utility guy.

Catcher – Grandal/Barnes/Farmer/Smith – Best catching duo since Yeager/Ferguson. Farmer is already in AAA and now a Dodger folk hero while Smith is in AA and should be inserting his name into the equation next year.

Getting the picture?

And we didn’t even bother to talk about the next group which includes Urias, Mitch White, Santana, Alvarez, Diaz, Kendall.

The final group in the pipeline should be Ruiz, May, Heredia, Peters.

in a word

Dang

Yu Darvish and the NL

One of the reasons I wanted Yu Darvish was because of his exceptional work against the NL during his time with the Rangers.

Let me demonstrate:

Date            Opp    Rslt  IP H ER BB SO GSc
2014-06-01      WSN   W 2-0 8.0 5  0  2 12  82
2014-06-11      MIA   W 6-0 9.0 6  0  3 10  82
2013-08-01      ARI   W 7-1 7.0 5  0  0 14  81
2017-05-16      PHI   W 5-1 7.0 4  1  2  9  72
2013-06-30      CIN   W 3-2 6.2 4  0  4  8  70
2013-09-09      PIT   L 0-1 7.0 4  1  1  6  70
2012-06-15      HOU   W 6-2 8.0 7  2  2 11  69
2012-06-20      SDP   W 4-2 8.0 5  2  3  8  69
2017-06-07      NYM   L 3-4 7.1 3  3  1  9  68
2013-05-27(2)   ARI   L 4-5 7.2 7  4  0 14  63
2016-05-28      PIT   W 5-2 5.0 3  1  1  7  63
2016-07-16      CHC   L 1-3 4.1 2  2  4  9  56
2017-05-10      SDP   W 4-3 6.0 7  3  0  6  52
2016-08-24      CIN   W 6-5 6.0 4  3  5  5  48
2014-07-04      NYM   L 5-6 5.0 5  4  2  6  45
2017-07-26      MIA L 10-22 3.2 9 10  2  5   6

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/31/2017.

Yu Darvish has made sixteen starts in the NL, and of those sixteen starts, he has a game score of 60 or better in eleven of them.  He’s pitched at least six innings in twelve of them.

You can easily understand how someone like Yu Darvish would do well against teams who rarely see him.

Bonus points, he’s also been very good against Houston. Though he has had more bad games against Houston than he has had against the NL.

Date          Tm Opp  Rslt  IP  H ER BB SO GSc
2013-04-02   TEX HOU W 7-0 8.2  1  0  0 14  96
2013-08-12   TEX HOU W 2-1 8.0  1  1  1 15  90
2014-04-11   TEX HOU W 1-0 8.0  1  0  1  9  88
2016-08-07   TEX HOU W 5-3 7.0  5  0  0  8  75
2017-06-12   TEX HOU W 6-1 7.0  1  1  3  4  72
2012-06-15   TEX HOU W 6-2 8.0  7  2  2 11  69
2013-05-11   TEX HOU W 8-7 7.0  3  3  3  8  64
2016-06-08   TEX HOU L 1-3 5.0  3  1  4  7  60
2013-09-24   TEX HOU W 3-2 5.1  4  2  4  9  57
2017-06-02   TEX HOU L 1-7 5.0  7  3  1  8  48
2013-07-06   TEX HOU L 5-9 6.0  6  5  4  6  42
2014-07-09   TEX HOU L 4-8 6.0 10  6  0  8  36
2016-09-04   TEX HOU L 6-7 4.0  7  5  3  4  29
2014-08-09   TEX HOU L 3-8 4.0  9  5  4  7  25

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/31/2017.