Fab Five Dodgers

This is two days too late to properly asses how much Yasiel Puig was beloved by Dodger fans but it is something I wanted to do this week.  Back in February of 2010 Michael White wrote for TrueBlueLA and did a fab five edition in which each of the regulars or even the semi-regulars commentators would list who their current five favorite Dodgers were.

We had quite a few replies and it was a fascinating look into how Dodger fans view their favorite players. Mike himself had a strange five that included James McDonald. How many of you even remember James McDonald? His full five were Billingsley, Kuo, Kershaw, Manny, and McDonald.

My five at the time were:

Kuo, Kershaw, Kemp, Andre, Loney

Posted  by meercatjohn  on Feb 12, 2010 | 10:57 AM
Looking back I remember my infatuation with Kuo, my amazement at Kershaw who was about to start his HOF run, my belief that Kemp was someday going to be an MVP but I’m surprised that Andre and Loney made my list. I liked Andre but don’t remember being that big a fan. If this had been the Feb of 2009, I could understand Loney, after all, he had just hit the biggest postseason home run for the Dodgers since Kirk Gibson, but his 2009 was a disappointment. I must have still been a believer.
Eric Stephen put forth these five:

Bills
Kemp
Kershaw
Broxton
Ethier

Posted  by Eric Stephen  on Feb 12, 2010 | 11:28 AM

If I had posted this yesterday morning my fab five would have been very tough to come up with. Unlike 2010 I like so many of these Dodgers. The team is full of good folk with Bellinger, Muncy, Seager, Turner, Taylor, Buehler, Kershaw, Hill, Ryu, Urias, Ferguson, ad Jansen among the contenders.

But number one the list would have been Yasiel Puig. He simply made watching baseball fun.

So my list yesterday morning would have been:

Yasiel Puig, Walker Buehler, Kershaw, Bellinger, and Justin Turner.

My list today would be:

Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner, and Max Muncy

It is a strange list that includes Max Muncy but not Corey Seager or Kenley Jansen, but Max Muncy just had one of the most bizarre seasons in baseball history and while he may not even be on the team next year at this time, right now, he’s a fab five.

Surprisingly, Harper is still on Dodger radar

On the surface, a match of the Dodgers and Harper does not seem like something you’d expect from a team who has more outfielders than they have spots on the roster. You could make a case the Puig/Bellinger/Taylor/Joc/Kemp/Verdugo/Toles/Hernandez are all at least average, running from average (Toles, Kemp, Hernandez), to above average (Joc, Puig, Taylor, Verdugo), to star quality (Bellinger).

Yet, the rumors persist that Harper wants to sign with the Dodgers and that the Dodgers would love Harper if they can get him to sign the kind of deal they would want.

I estimate that a Harper contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers would be in the ballpark of ten years, $360 million, split up into three different stages of the contract.

Jason Reed gave the above estimate as something he thinks the Dodgers and Harper can agree too.  The key to that kind of contract are the option years.  It remains to be seen if Dodger management would do that kind of deal.

That still doesn’t seem likely to me, but what if the Dodgers do pull that off? Puig would for sure need to be traded. I’d say even Verdugo would need to go. If they sign Harper, I’d expect that Verdugo is the centerpiece headed to the Marlins for Realmuto. With Verdugo the centerpiece, I think a trade of Verdugo / Dennis Santana / Will Smith should be good enough to net them Realmuto.

Now they have to figure what to do with Puig. I love Puig, but if you have signed Bryce Harper to be your right fielder, Puig is the first odd man out.

Before we move Puig let’s look at the lineup with Harper and Realmuto in it.

Against RHP POS Against LHP POS
J.T. Realmuto Catcher Chris Taylor Left Field
Corey Seager Shortstop Corey Seager SS
Bryce Harper Right Field Justin Turner 3rd Base
Justin Turner 3rd Base Byrce Harper Right Field
Cody Bellinger 1st Base David Freese 1st Base
Max Muncy 2nd Base Kiké Hernandez 2nd Base
Joc Pederson Center Field J.T. Realmuto Catcher
Andrew Toles Left Field Cody Bellinger Center Field
Walker Buehler Pitcher Walker Buehler Pitcher
Kiké Hernandez Joc Pederson
Chris Taylor Max Muncy
David Freese Andrew Toles
Austin Barnes Austin Barnes

Can’t say I’m a huge fan of the possible lineup iterations. Signing Harper makes us lefty-heavy with Joc, Seager, Harper, Muncy, and Bellinger as the big left-hand hitting group. Plus, J.T. Realmuto crushes RHP (.875 OPS) which is why he’s leading off against RHP, something he did alot of in Miami.  That group should mash right-hand pitching.

The right-hand hitting group is no piece of cake either with Turner,  Taylor, Freese, Harper, and Kiké all likely to tear into left-hand pitching.

The hitting part I like, but in the scenarios above, Max Muncy is basically a 2nd baseman. Can we live with that? Do we want Cody bouncing from CF to 1st base depending on who is pitching? Chris Taylor only has a part-time role and he seems better than that. Andrew Toles is the left fielder against RHP, but if he fails, Chris Taylor can simply take that job full time.

I’m starting to talk myself into this roster. With Puig/Verdugo/Kemp all gone, we are one roster spot shy.  I added Toles back to the 25 man roster from the forty man roster, but we need one more player. I would look to add a left-hand pinch hitter but I don’t have a name for you right now.

This seems like a delicious roster, is it something you’d be comfortable with? Bryce Harper is an enigmatic player, someone who is at times the best player in the National League, and others no better than Yasiel Puig. The salary would be huge, would it be worth it? We have to remember that after this year Puig is a free agent so we’d only be moving him a year early.

The Dodgers could move Joc Pederson instead of Verdugo and they just might try to do that. Let’s say they do move Joc / Puig / Kemp and sign Harper. Let’s say they create a complicated three-way deal involving several of those three that brings Realmuto to the Dodgers. Let’s also say we believe Dave Roberts when he says that Bellinger/Muncy are full-time players.

How does that lineup look?

Against RHP POS Against LHP POS
J.T. Realmuto Catcher Chris Taylor Left Field
Corey Seager Shortstop Corey Seager SS
Bryce Harper Right Field Justin Turner 3rd Base
Justin Turner 3rd Base Byrce Harper Right Field
Cody Bellinger Center Field Kiké Hernandez 2nd Base
Max Muncy 1st Base J.T. Realmuto Catcher
Alex Verdugo Left Field Max Muncy 1st Base
Chris Taylor 2nd Base Cody Bellinger Center Field
Walker Buehler Pitcher Walker Buehler Pitcher
Kiké Hernandez Alex Verdugo
Andrew Toles David Freese
David Freeze Andrew Toles
Austin Barnes Austin Barnes

I think I like this iteration better.  The defense is much better, and while the offense against LHP will suffer from Cody and Max getting full-time at-bats, we do have Freese sitting on the bench waiting to crush LHP if Cody or Max don’t produce enough.

Anyway, at least I can see how Harper fits if he shocks me and signs with the Dodgers.

I personally would give Puig 600 Plate Appearances in 2019 and sign a backup for Austin Barnes instead of signing Bryce Harper for a bazillion dollars but I can understand those who want Harper in Los Angeles.

This could play out many ways, it is not like the Dodgers would have to trade for Realmuto if they sign Harper. They may think they have enough offense they can carry Barnes. Remember Barnes is still a great framer, one year removed from a break out offensive season. If he can just get back to an average hitter, with his defensive and framing skills he’d be fine as a full-time catcher.

I’m just not sure what they can move Puig for. Maybe an elite second baseman? Heck, just one year ago Brian Dozier was an elite second baseman and now he can’t get anyone to give him a contract. I’d love a Scooter Gennett but why would the Reds move him and his great contract?

The Dodgers could go big or simply do nothing. Right now I’m okay with either scenario.

She was in a league of her own

A few months ago I started thinking about Penny Marshall. I play softball with Fred Fox who was the showrunner for the iconic TV series Laverne and Shirley. The senior softball league I play on in the San Fernando Valley was created by Gary Marshall and is filled with folk who worked in the local TV industry. When Fred told me about his involvement with Laverne and Shirley I remembered how Penny used to be one of the few celebrities who came to the old Sports Arena to watch the Clippers. I don’t think she was a big fan of the Clippers, just of basketball but the few fans would still give her a big shout out when she was spotted.  You could tell she was only there to watch basketball, not to be seen.

I hadn’t seen Penny at a Clipper game in years, and I wondered if she was doing okay. Evidently, the answer was no.  Penny passed away yesterday but she left behind quite a legacy.  Only those of a certain age will remember Laverne and Shirley and I have no idea if it has aged well, but during it’s run, it was a madcap sitcom that made me laugh on a regular basis. Laverne was a character that has never been matched and it is hard to be a one of a kind after seventy years of sitcoms.

As good as Penny was as Laverne, I never expected her to direct one of my all-time favorite movies.

Penny Marshall was able to do what Kevin Costner has tried to do multiple times. Make a great baseball movie. Not only is “League of their own” my favorite baseball movie, but it is also my favorite sports movie. This may have been the first “sports” movie my wife enjoyed as much as I did.  Some movies are good signals. If your significant other did not like this movie, maybe they shouldn’t be your significant other.

Geena Davis has a had a long and varied career but she will always be Dottie to me. Lori Petty is and always will be Kit, not Tank Girl.

Gary and Penny Marshall are both gone now, but they left behind quite a legacy. They made us laugh, think, and cry.

Hell of a duo.

Yikes!!!! Dodgers extend Charley Steiner

for three years so if you live in the West San Fernando Valley you won’t have to lament the fact you can’t get KLAC 570 anyway.

I’ve tried to be fairly snarkless when I moved from TBLA over to here but it is hard when a move is made that doesn’t seem reasonable on so many levels.  Normally,  in the media world of 2018, who is doing PBP on the radio is of little consequence but in Los Angeles, it matters because of the Dodger TV deal with Time Warner that has left thousands of fans out of the loop when it comes to watching the Dodgers on TV.

The other alternative is the old-fashioned one that brought many a fan into the Dodger family.  The Radio. With that being the case you would think the Dodgers would try to hire the best possible play by play announcer to be the voice of the team for those who don’t have the Time Warner option.

Instead, the Dodgers have plugged away with Charley Steiner who is considered the worst play by play announcer to ever grace a microphone in Los Angeles. One has to ask why? I’ve met Charlie, he’s a good guy, he loves the game of baseball, he is passionate about the game of baseball, but…………he isn’t good at being the play by play announcer of baseball for radio. This isn’t a new thing, Charley has been the play by play guy since they unceremoniously removed Ross Porter from the gig back in November of 2004. and even fourteen years ago you noticed the drop off from Ross to Charley.

There are two compelling reasons for not extending Charley Steiner. The foremost is that he simply can’t describe over the radio the action on the field well enough that you have any idea of what is happening. He can handle the simple plays when he takes the time to actually tell you what happened, but give him something complex and you can forget about it. Am I alone in this assessment? I don’t think so, it seems fairly unanimous across the multiple modes of communication (bloggers, blog commentators, sports radio commentators, writers, fans at the stadium, twitter, Instagram) that the majority don’t think he’s good at his job.  I could give you all the links but that is a lot of work, and rarely does anyone who reads this drivel ever click on a well-researched link so I’m going to save myself some time and expect you to believe me because I’m an older white male and if you can’t trust the opinion of an old white male, who can you trust in today’s environment?

The other reason is problematic. Charley is old school. The Dodgers are the new school. Charley still thinks wins and RBI’s are important and every game he’ll try to explain why he feels that way. The Dodgers went out of their way to hire a progressive young TV announcer by the name of Joe Davis. Joe has tried very hard to enlighten Dodger fans on what it is to be a baseball fan in the 21st century.  He hasn’t turned Nomar but it is fairly clear that Orel is on the bandwagon.  Dodger management makes every baseball decision using the latest baseball knowledge and you can bet that “wins” and “runs batted in” are not part of those equations. Wouldn’t they want their radio voice to also be part of that group think? Why give voice to those who still live in the 20th century? Why not try to educate them?

Those are the two major reasons I would not have extended Charley, but I have a third and it may surprise many of you. I’m sixty, I was basically aged out of my career at the age of 56, so I’m a little sensitive about discrimination against seniors. Charley is 69 years old. He wasn’t good at his job when he was 55, and he’ll only get worse.  There are very few job openings for play by play announcers in major league baseball.  It would have been nice after a lengthy career, for Charley to simply retire and let one of these would be announcers get a chance.

At any given moment, Major League Baseball’s 30 clubs have at least 750 roster spots to fill. Between the 60 full-time play-by-play jobs and other assorted radio and TV gigs, there are a fraction as many broadcasting jobs in the majors. The play-by-play positions are the pies in the sky for minor league broadcasters, and it’s basically impossible to rise quickly or cut corners in pursuit of one of those.

Charley got his chance and ran with it having a long and varied career announcing sports.  I think he should have stepped aside and let someone else get his shot.

But wait a minute. What about Vin Scully, he was on the job for 66 years and no one was asking him to retire at the age of 69, why should we ask Charley Steiner to retire at age 69?

Because, Vin Scully was Vin Scully, the best at his craft in describing the action on the field and even at age 69 he was still in his prime as a play by play announcer. Charley Steiner is not Vin Scully, Charley is the nice guy in the office who let you hang around because he’s a nice guy but you’d replace in a minute if you found someone who could do the job better, and believe me the minors are filled with folk who can do the job better.

Yet, the Dodgers went with Steiner, and like a host of other fans, if I’m driving and the Dodgers are playing, my only choice is Charley Steiner, so for the next three years I’ll continue to curtail my driving experience while the Dodgers are playing because I can only take so many shivers down my spine when hearing Charley try to explain a close play at the plate while trying to finish a story he started that we have all heard one hundred times before.

Hours after I wrote this post, the Dodgers announced they added Tim Neverett to their broadcast team.  I was unaware when Charlie Steiner signed his extension that he was cutting back his schedule, so when he takes a day off, Tim Neverett will handle the play by play duties. Tim will also be seen on the TV side when Joe Davis does his national assignments.

Tim has a varied background whose latest work was doing radio play by play for the Red Sox but buried in that resume was some work for the Dodgers AAA team when they were in Las Vegas.  He has been in the business since 1985 and I’m happy to see the Dodgers give someone with that extensive resume a shot. All the other play by play announcers who have been toiling for thirty years in the minors will have to wait their turn.
Here is a snippet of Tim talking about his gig with the Red Sox.

Here is a snippet of Tim being made fun of by his TV mates when he drops a fly ball

Here is a snippet of Tim doing a big radio call of the Red Sox winning the 2018 ALDS

Ducking in with Donald

Duck – Two years into your term and it seems everyone who has worked for you has either been fired, resigned, or indicted and that is before the Democratic House takes over in January where the grill will only get hotter.  Is this what you meant about “Making America Great Again”?

DonaldNo President has done more in their first two years of office than I have. Even with the Mueller witchhunt hanging over my boys, we have managed to pass the greatest redistribution of wealth back to the rich via our tax cut in history, removed many of the regulations that make our water safe, our air breathable, and stop the flow of brown people from shithole countries into our communities.

Duck – that is quite a list of accomplishments. Anything else you are proud of?

Donald – Sure, we also managed to get a man accused of drunken sexual assault confirmed to the Supreme Court. You know how hard that is? Imagine every Republican member of Congress voting for that guy after demanding that Al Franken resigns as Senator because he fake coped a feel of a passed out female friend.? That would be like getting elected President even with the candidate bragging on tape that he could grab anyone by the pussy because he’s a celebrity.

Duck – that was impressive, no one in your party stood up to the nomination.

Donald – the Russians are good at their job. They got stuff on everyone.  Just imagine what they have on Lindsey Graham. for him to become my golfing buddy.

Duck – you aren’t concerned that the Democrats had six million more votes for their HOR candidates than the Republicans did in the recent mid-terms?

Donald – We may have lost the House but there were many weak candidates who didn’t embrace me. I was able to get additional Senate seats during the mid-terms so we will continue to fill the Federal courts with partisan Judges who don’t think much of our constitution or allowing everyone to vote. Democracy at it’s finest. The Electoral College is something else. Those founding fathers sure knew how to rig the game.

Duck – you lost the house and will no longer have the speaker letting you get away with whatever you want. Do you have nightmares of Pelosi and Schiff?

Donald – Nah, as I said the Russians are good, I’m sure when it comes to push or shove they will find some stuff on Pelosi that we can use.  Hell, she’s been a politician forever, you have to had done some bad things in fifty years. I am worried about that upstart gal from the Bronx. She is trouble. And Hot. Mike Pence won’t be able to sit in the same room with her.

Duckyou must mean the Puerto Rican congresswoman to be Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez who will be the youngest House Representative in history at age 29. She also graduated cum laude from Boston University.

Donald – Puerto Rican? She must be grateful for everything I did for that country even though I didn’t have too.

Duck – Puerto Rico isn’t a country it is an unincorporated territory of the United States and most reports would say the US response to the hurricane was inadequate but that might have been more about Fema not having a plan in place for such a disaster instead of simply racist ignorance. Though I’m pretty sure it was about racial indifference. But yeah, even I have daydreams about Ocasio-Cortez. Of course, my daydreams are more about her intelligence and enthusiasm for the disenfranchised but I would be disingenuous if I didn’t mention I was also bewitched with her physical appearance.

Donald – That has been a huge success. By destroying thousands of families through either gross negligence or simply not caring we have planted the seed that any person in the brown world that would consider seeking asylum to stay away from our country or risk losing their children.  Stephen Miller should get an award for this policy. It is diabolically clever.

Duck – Diabolical, like a James Bond Villian?

Donald – Sometimes the villains have the big ideas that the small minds are afraid to implement. It takes a lot of courage to destroy families simply because we don’t want to share our wealth with those who were born outside our borders. For that matter, we don’t like sharing our wealth with our citizens. We got bombs and missiles to make, we can’t be feeding people.

Duck – you can now add manslaughter to that list with the report today that a 7-year-old girl died of dehydration after being taken into custody by your World Class Border Patrol.

Donald – that was very sad, but that is all on the parents for bringing her to the US.

Duck – yeah, what the hell were they thinking, trying to find a better life for their children? They should have looked harder at the pigment and realized that they stood a better chance with the sex traffickers, drug traffickers, vicious street gangs and corrupt politicians that control many levels of society in Guatemala than they did with our asylum process.

Donald – If we didn’t stop the flow across our borders, terrorists would intermingle with them and put Americans at risk. I”m making America safe.

Duck – for all the concern you floated about foreign terrorists, it is the disgruntled Citizen with a gun who is killing fellow Americans at unprecedented rates. In a 2016 report, Americans now have a 1 in 315 chance of dying by gun violence compared to a 1 in 45,000 chance of being killed by a foreign-born terrorist. 

Donald – but railing against gun violence doesn’t get you elected President, railing against anything foreign does. It could be China trade, Mexicans, Muslims. That is how you get to be President.

Duck – you do know your base. I mean your cult.

DuckWith the new court filings this week about your one-time personal lawyer Michael Cohen, it would seem the only thing keeping you from prosecution might be the fact you are president and ironically the only reason that you might be charged is that you decided to run for President.

Donald – those are ridiculous charges. I was simply making these payments as a private citizen to protect my family. I did nothing illegal and if I did, that was my lawyer’s fault, he should have known better, he’s the lawyer.

Duck – it does seem throughout all of this, you seem to forget that you were running for president and were no longer simply a private citizen. Paying off woman so they don’t talk and influence an election, taking foreign help for the campaign, working with Russia to further your real estate dealings while running for President. These are all campaign crimes, and this is why those who know about such things were clamoring for your Tax Returns so they could look into conflict of interest areas.

Donald – My tax returns are my private business

Duck – they were until you decided to run for President, at which point they should be all our business. If you wanted to be left alone to run your money laundering empire, you shouldn’t have run for President.

Donald – everyone told me not to run. But you know, my gut said I could make even more money by doing everything I wanted when I became President.

Duck – didn’t your advisors tell you that as a President and not an authoritative ruler like Putin you had to follow rules?

Donald – probably, but I don’t listen to anything but my gut and my gut wanted to do whatever I wanted to do. And for the most part, I have.

Duck – you aren’t concerned that someday you, your family, and anyone who has worked for you will have to pay a price for being the most corrupt administration in the history of the United States?

Donald – Nah, my base will revolt if anyone tries to hold me accountable for simply doing what must be done to make America Great Again. Remember my base owns most of the guns.  Besides, we have set up Eric to take the fall for the rest of us. 

Duck – luckily it is time for me to migrate to Southern California where the weather is warm, and the majority of folk enjoy their diversity while dodging fires, floods, and waiting for the big one to hit.  I never got to ask about raking the forest, all the golfing, the Tariff King, the Khashoggi murder, the Prince of Saudi Arabia, the lack of trust in the US intelligence community, the ludicrous idea of having a head of state who refuses to read memos, refusing to believe or care enough to do anything about climate change, NRA peddling influence, a lightweight scam artist like Matthew Whitaker  to be acting Attorney General,  the failing war in Afganistan, or even Putin. And that is just the first paragraph.

Is Francisco Cervelli a valid trade option?

The Dodgers still have only one bonafide major league catcher on their major league roster in Austin Barnes. Catching is in a downturn across major league baseball so the pickings are still slim.

The big name linked to the Dodgers has been J.T. Realmuto but another name has started to circulate the rumor mill, and this name belongs to Francisco Cervelli. Cervelli checks some of the boxes.

  • Free Agent after 2019, thus not impeding the Keibert Ruiz / Will Smith ascension
  • Coming off an outstanding offensive campaign in 2018 in which he had the 2nd best OPS+ in the NL for a catcher who appeared in at least 100 games.

But he doesn’t check all the boxes. He does not appear in the top 30 of framers in 2018.  In fact, he hasn’t been in the top 30 for framers in any of the past three years. Grandal was number one in 2018, number four in 2017, and number two in 2016. Austin Barnes didn’t play enough in 2016 but in 2017 he ranked 8th, and 13th in 2018.

Cervelli also has a payday in 2019 worth 11.5 Million. That is much less than what the QO that Grandal turned down but for a team trying to stay under the luxury tax while paying Kershaw/Ryu almost 50 Million it is a good chunk of change.

Another major sour note on Cervelli is that his offensive performance in 2016 / 2017 was very unlike the output in 2018. His OPS+ was 91/90/123 for an average OPS+ for those three years of 101 which is exactly the average OPS+ of someone named Austin Barnes.

The final note on Cervelli is that he had a well-earned reputation for being hurt during his career with NYY. He tried to put that to rest by playing in 130 games his first year with the Pirates in 2015. However, since than he has played in 101 / 81 / 104 games so for $11 Million you probably aren’t getting a full season of a healthy Cervelli. Entering his age 33 season, that probably doesn’t improve.

I’m not convinced he’s the better option over Barnes for 2019.

I wish I had better options to offer. The problem is that Grandal was an excellent fit for the Dodgers and replacing him isn’t going to be easy until Ruiz/Smith are ready, and even then, they would be hard-pressed to produce at anything close to the level that Grandal gave this team during his run as the Dodgers starting catcher. During the regular season.

The Dodgers would have to give up a lot simply to get the same production that Grandal gave them to get J.T. Realmuto and at the same time giving up the futures of Ruiz/Smith.

Dodgers management has a tough decision on how to handle the 2019 catching duties. As I concluded before I would simply run with Barnes and an adequate backup catcher but even getting that adequate backup catcher in today’s world won’t be easy.

Checking in on the Dodger Roster

With the winter meeting over, thought it would be prudent to check in on the roster and see where we stand. Below is the 41 man roster, one player will need to go when Joe Kelly is officially added to the 40 man roster. That player will come from the second tier of projected minor league players from 2019. Probably one of Adam McCreery/Yimi Garcia/Josh Sborz.

The Dodgers have 28 projected major league players for 25 spots but only one catcher is on the projected major league roster so whoever they get to team with Barnes is going to be added to the roster putting it at 29. Barring a trade, that leaves four players who will need to start the season in the minors

Right now the Dodgers have a glut of starting pitchers and outfielders. In a best-case scenario, they move Matt Kemp to free salary and a roster space, but that still leaves them with many more moves to make.

With the trade winds still blowing many moves can still be made, but if nothing happens between now and March 1st I would expect the following players to start 2019 in the minors.

Julio Urias, Caleb Ferguson, Alex Verdugo, and Dylan Floro.

Urias will probably be managed in 2019 much as Walker Buehler was in 2018.  Caleb was the Dodgers best left-handed relief pitcher in the 2nd half, but at just 21, he could still be a future starter and it doesn’t take much imagination seeing him start the year in the  AAA rotation. Alex Verdugo is simply stuck. Even if Matt Kemp goes, that doesn’t free up a spot for Verdugo since Kemp was the right-hand platoon partner for Joc Pederson.

There is a reason why in just about every trade scenario the same two names keep showing up. Yasiel Puig and Alex Verdugo. If Puig gets traded the Dodgers free up some money and Verdugo can slot into his spot in RF. If Alex Verdugo gets traded the Dodgers will be trading their top position prospect but hopefully filling out the major league roster with either a catcher, a 2nd baseman, or an upgrade to the rotation.

When I say an upgrade to the rotation, it would have to be an arm like Cory Kluber or Thor because the rotation is brilliant at the top with Buehler/Kershaw and solid in the middle with anyone of Hill/Maeda/Ryu/Wood/Stripling plus eventually Urias/Ferguson/Santana.

Player Name 2019 Position Age Bats Throws
Walker Buehler Majors SP1 23 R R
Clayton Kershaw Majors SP2 30 L L
Rich Hill Majors SP5 38 L L
Kenta Maeda Majors SP5 30 R R
Hyun-Jin Ryu Majors SP5 31 R L
Alex Wood Majors SP5 27 R L
Julio Urias Majors SP5 21 L L
Ross Stripling Majors SP/RP 28 R R
Kenley Jansen Majors Closer 30 S R
Joe Kelly Majors RP 31 R R
Pedro Baez Majors RP 30 R R
Caleb Ferguson Majors SP/RP 21 R L
Scott Alexander Majors RP 28 L L
Tony Cingrani Majors RP 28 L L
Josh Fields Majors RP 32 R R
Dylan Floro Majors RP 27 L R
Austin Barnes Majors Catcher 28 R R
Max Muncy Majors 1st/2nd 27 L R
David Freese Majors 1st/3rd 35 R R
Enrique Hernandez Majors 2nd/OF 26 R R
Corey Seager Majors SS 24 L R
Justin Turner Majors 3rd 33 R R
Chris Taylor Majors OF/2nd/SS 27 R R
Yasiel Puig Majors OF 27 R R
Cody Bellinger Majors CF/1st 22 L L
Joc Pederson Majors OF 26 L L
Matt Kemp Majors OF 33 R R
Alex Verdugo Majors OF 22 L L
Matt Beaty Minors 1st/3rd 25 L R
Edwin Rios Minors 1st/3rd 24 L R
Kyle Farmer Minors C/3rd 27 R R
Keibert Ruiz Minors Catcher 19 S R
Rocky Gale Minors Catcher 30 R R
Andrew Toles Minors OF 26 L R
Adam McCreery Minors RP 25 L L
Josh Sborz Minors RP 24 R R
Brock Stewart Minors RP 26 L R
Yimi Garcia Minors RP 27 R R
J.T. Chargois Minors RP 27 S R
Dennis Santana Minors SP/RP 22 R R
Yadier Alvarez Minors SP/RP 22 R R

 

 

Dodgers leave winter meetings with all their outfielders and starting pitching

Most of the focus during the Dodger Winter Meetings were which outfielder would get traded in rumored deals for Kluber and Realmuto but with the 2018 Winter Meeting in the rearview mirror, the only notable change in the roster was the acquisition of Joe Kelley who short-circuited the Dodger 2013 Postseason when he broke the rib of red-hot Hanley Ramirez.

Joe Kelly didn’t come cheap signing a three year deal for a reported twenty-five million. Kelly is coming off a fantastic World Series against the Dodgers, striking out ten with zero walks in six shutout innings while pitching in all five games. The zero walks were either indicative of the Dodger approach or the best version of Joe Kelly because during the regular season Kelly walked 4.4 hitters every nine innings.

I won’t pretend to know which Joe Kelly the Dodgers will be getting,  but hopefully, the Dodgers do. They supposedly blew Kelly away with their presentation on how they expect to use him and why they wanted him.

Last year the Dodgers signed Tom Koehler to much less expensive contract for only one year based on the fantastic small sample size he put up as a relief pitcher. They never got to test their Koehler theory as the plans went down the toilet when he suffered a pre-season injury and never pitched for the Dodgers.

Other Dodger action during the meetings. They lost two minor league prospects in the major league rule five draft. The Reds picked up Connor Joe with the 6th pick and the Phillies picked Drew Jackson with the 11th pick and then traded Drew to the Orioles. Connor Joe had an outstanding season in AAA for the Dodgers and was one of the players I had hoped they would put on the 40 man roster but there was simply no room him. Drew Jackson is going to have to make the jump from AA to the major leagues but his speed and utility could be useful off the bench.

For those who keep track of such things, Thursday was a banquet of first names for last names with Joe and Jackson leaving, and Kelly coming.

It is almost like Cody Bellinger wasn’t a valuable player in 2018

Trade talks are heating up and every Dodger outfielder is being discussed in deals to shore up area’s that evidently need shoring up.

Even Cody Bellinger’s name has come up, which to me seems ridiculous given he should be as untouchable as Walker Buehler. Sure, Bellinger didn’t put up as insane a season as his rookie year, but he was still one of the most valuable players in all of baseball.

He will be paid the league minimum again in 2019, before entering his first year of arbitration in 2020. With Harper a.iming for a contract in excess of $325 million, consider this: Bellinger has been worth 8.3 wins above replacement since 2017, and Harper has been worth 7.5 since 2016, according to Baseball-Reference.com

L.A. Times beat Andy McCullough put out this story today about Bellinger. At first, the title of the tweet put me off, but the actual story is excellent as Andy goes in-depth about what the Dodgers feel were his issues in 2018 and what he can do to fix them for the future.

Yet, the season for Bellinger still classified as a “tough year,” manager Dave Roberts said Tuesday. His slugging percentage dipped 111 points. His production against left-handers sagged. He was the most valuable player of the National League Championship Series and still finished the postseason with a .115 batting average and a .192 slugging percentage. He performed like a useful cog in the Dodgers platoon machine, rather than the consistent force he was for much of 2017.

But even if Cody Bellinger never gets better than he was in 2018, that was still a very valuable player. He struggled once again in the World Series but they don’t get to the World Series without him between his clutch catches, throws, and home-run in the NLCS.

Way back in Sept of 2017 I wondered if Cody might be more valuable to the team as a center fielder. With Muncy looking like the Dodger first baseman, it would appear that Cody Bellinger will be the everyday center fielder.

Just for fun, below is the list of players who played 1st or CF at least 51% of the time from 2017 – 2018. Man, there are some great base runner in this category. Look at the SB / CS rates of Trout/Cain/Yelich and Bellinger.

Player             OPS+ WAR/pos From   To   Age   PA HR  BB  SO SB CS   OPS      Pos
Mike Trout          194    16.8 2017 2018 25-26 1115 72 216 214 46  6 1.080    *8/DH
Lorenzo Cain        116    12.2 2017 2018 31-32 1265 25 125 194 56  9  .808    *8/HD
Christian Yelich    140    11.6 2017 2018 25-26 1346 54 148 272 38  6  .901   *8/79H
Paul Goldschmidt    139    11.2 2017 2018 29-30 1355 69 184 320 25  9  .944    *3/DH
Joey Votto          148    10.9 2017 2018 33-34 1330 48 242 184  7  1  .940    *3/HD
Freddie Freeman     147    10.6 2017 2018 27-28 1221 51 141 227 18  8  .933    *3/5H
Aaron Hicks         123     8.6 2017 2018 27-28  942 42 141 178 21  7  .838  *8/7H9D
Cody Bellinger      130     8.3 2017 2018 21-22 1180 64 133 297 24  4  .869 *3/87H9D
Matt Carpenter      132     7.8 2017 2018 31-32 1299 59 211 283  6  2  .868  *3/54HD
George Springer     130     7.7 2017 2018 27-28 1249 56 128 233 11 11  .834 *8*9/DH7
Kevin Kiermaier      98     7.6 2017 2018 27-28  788 22  56 190 26 12  .725     *8/H
Matt Olson          128     7.1 2017 2018 23-24  876 53  92 223  2  1  .841    *3/H9
Anthony Rizzo       127     7.0 2017 2018 27-28 1356 57 161 170 16  8  .873 *3/4H175

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/12/2018.

 

Updating the Puig / Clemente timeline

RobertoClemente

In March of 2018, I took a long look at a view I’ve long maintained that Yasiel Puig could eventually have a career similar to HOF Roberto Clemente.

Most baseball fans think of Clemente as the man who died a hero but in his early 20’s he was an enigmatic player who many felt wasn’t getting the most of his tools. It wasn’t until Roberto turned 28 that he put all of his tools together and became one of the best right fielders in baseball

They are not physically alike but they are both from the islands off of Florida, right-handed hitting right fielders with arms of their generation. They both started out their careers either misunderstood or immature depending on your point of view.

Is Puig still on that pace?

Puig actually had a much better age 27 season than did Clemente. The difference being that Puig started being platooned in 2018 while Clemente was doing his 3rd straight year of over 580 plate appearances. Once again Puig had the much better offensive season at the same age but that is going change. Roberto never had an OPS+ below 138 from age 28 – 37 so I Puig wants to start putting on his HOF case, he is going to have to step up his game just as Roberto did. Roberto had also won two gold gloves in a row but it is isn’t like Puig isn’t an outstanding defensive right fielder even if he hasn’t won a gold glove yet.  .

Player Age WAR/pos OPS+ BA OBP SLG OPS
Roberto Clemente 20-27 24.6 105 0.300 0.334 0.434 0.768
G PA R H
1061 4374 569 1230
2B 3B HR RBI
191 67 75 495
Player Age WAR/pos OPS+ BA OBP SLG OPS
Yasiel Puig 22-27 18.6 127 0.279 0.353 0.478 0.831
G PA R H
712 2765 365 686
2B 3B HR RBI
129 19 108 331

Puig:

Year    Age   Tm   PA   R   H  2B 3B  HR  OPS OPS+      Awards
2013     22  LAD  432  66 122  21  2  19 .925  159 MVP-15RoY-2
2014     23  LAD  640  92 165  37  9  16 .863  145    ASMVP-19
2015     24  LAD  311  30  72  12  3  11 .758              110
2016     25  LAD  368  45  88  14  2  11 .740               98
2017     26  LAD  570  72 131  24  2  28 .833              119
2018     27  LAD  444  60 108  21  1  23 .820              120
6 Yr   6 Yr 6 Yr 2765 365 686 129 19 108 .831              127
162     162  162  629  83 156  29  4  25 .831              127

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/7/2018.
Clemente:

Year    Age   Tm    PA    R    H  2B  3B  HR  OPS OPS+       Awards
1955     20  PIT   501   48  121  23  11   5 .666                77
1956     21  PIT   572   66  169  30   7   7 .761               106
1957     22  PIT   474   42  114  17   7   4 .637                73
1958     23  PIT   556   69  150  24  10   6 .736                95
1959     24  PIT   456   60  128  17   7   4 .718                92
1960     25  PIT   620   89  179  22   6  16 .815  121    ASASMVP-8
1961     26  PIT   614  100  201  30  10  23 .949  150  ASASMVP-4GG
1962     27  PIT   581   95  168  28   9  10 .805  114 ASASMVP-17GG

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/7/2018.

The word is that Puig is on the trading block this winter. The Dodgers have a plethora of outfielders and might want to get their top prospect Alex Verdugo into the everyday lineup. Puig is in the last year of his contract and will be arbitration eligible after next year but the Dodgers control him through the 2020 season.

Dodgers fans seem to have a love/hate relationship with Puig, and I don’t mean the kind where you love him one minute and hate him the next. You either love his theatrical antics or you hate them.  Since he joined the Dodgers in June of 2013 he has been one of the top right fielders in all of baseball.  It is a tough class with some of the biggest names in baseball but Puig is right there having accumulated the exact bWAR as George Springer in about the same number of plate appearances.

Player              OPS+ WAR/pos From   To   Age   PA  HR   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
J.D. Martinez        147    20.5 2013 2018 25-30 3102 178 .301 .361 .564 .926
Giancarlo Stanton    144    26.9 2013 2018 23-28 3327 212 .267 .361 .545 .906
Bryce Harper         143    22.2 2013 2018 20-25 3360 162 .281 .396 .519 .915
Mookie Betts         134    35.2 2014 2018 21-25 2923 110 .303 .370 .518 .888
George Springer      128    18.7 2014 2018 24-28 2789 121 .265 .356 .468 .824
Yasiel Puig          127    18.6 2013 2018 22-27 2765 108 .279 .353 .478 .831
Jose Bautista        123    16.5 2013 2018 32-37 3469 161 .241 .360 .463 .823
Josh Reddick         111    17.8 2013 2018 26-31 2885  84 .268 .331 .430 .761
Jason Heyward         97    21.1 2013 2018 23-28 3261  64 .263 .338 .392 .730

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/7/2018.

Puig might be unhappy with being platooned this past summer and while platooning has advantages not many players get the reverse platoon like Puig does. Puig used to crush left hand pitching with a 1.003 OPS in 2013, .934 OPS in 2015 but over the past two years, he has hit like a pitcher against LHP. If Puig can get back to crushing LHP he will make the leap to an elite player, if not, at least he crushes the arm side that most often pitches in major league baseball.

Honestly, I think this will be the last time I do this type of story on Puig/Clemente. Clemente is about to hurtle himself into the HOF starting with his age 28 season. Puig might be getting ready to become the next Raul Mondesi who peaked at age 26 and never became the player that looked like a star at age 26 in 1997. I probably should have been doing those comparisons instead.