How did Seager fare against Fred Lynn

Back on August 10th, I wondered if Corey Seager could replicate the 1975 season of Fred Lynn, when Lynn won both the MVP and ROY.

Using fWAR,  Corey did his part, putting up a 7.5 fWAR which was actually better than Lynn’s 7.1 in 1975.  Let’s update the rest of the numbers:

Player | OPS | OPS+ | XBH | fWAR
Lynn | 0.967 | 162 | 47-7-21 | 7.1
Seager | 0.877 | 137 | 40-5-26 | 7.5

How about that, Corey ended the year with 71 extra base hits compared to Lynn’s 75.  When people want to make comparisons of Corey Seager they probably don’t need to look any further than the sweet left-handed swinging Fred Lynn.

None of this will help Corey run down Kris Bryant for the 201 NL MVP, but it does help add some context to the type of season that Corey Seager put up.

Year of the Rookie

Unless something happens significantly in the postseason, the 2016 LAD season will always be known as the year of the rookie.

  • The Dodgers got an MVP type season from their rookie shortstop. Corey Seager will make the postseason roster.
  • The Dodgers got 1190 plate appearances from rookie position players
  • The Dodgers got 432 innings from rookie pitchers
  • The Dodgers got 70 starts from rookie pitchers
  • The Dodgers got a solid rotation season from their rookie starting pitcher from the Japanese professional leagues. Kenta Maeda will make the postseason roster.
  • The Dodgers used a 19-year-old in May as a starter and then turned to that rookie for fourteen more starts before the season was over. Julio Urias will make the postseason roster.
  • The Dodgers used a rookie pitcher who started the season in A ball and gave him five starts. Brock Stewart will probably not make the postseason roster but gave the Dodgers a glimpse of what the steal of the 2014 draft could do in the future.
  • The Dodger used a  rookie outfielder who sat out all of 2015, started the season in A ball, gave  him major at-bats in key games during the pennant run, and ultimately put him on the postseason roster.
  • The Dodgers used a 27 year-old-rookie as their primary go to guy against LHP in August, and he responded with 12 RBI in only 55 PA. Rob Segedin will probably not make the postseason roster but he gave Vin Scully plenty of things to quip about.
  • The Dodgers got 44 home runs from their rookie position players
  • The Dodgers got 100 league average innings from a rookie pitcher who wasn’t on the radar entering the season after having spent 2015 pitching for the first time since his Tommy John surgery that cut short his 2013 season and wiped out his 2014 season entirely. Ross Stripling should make the postseason roster.
  • The Dodgers used a 28 year-old journeyman minor league left handed rookie as their main left handed pitcher out of the bullpen after he arrived for good on Aug 6th. Grant Dayton is a lock for the postseason roster.
  • The Dodgers got fantastic work from a rookie PED violater who might have worked his way onto the postseason if not for being ineligible.

Normally the rookie lists are littered with players who were simply brought up in Sept to full out the rosters, but in the Dodgers case, most of their rookies on these lists produced when asked during the season. Micah Johnson and Austin Barnes are the only two position players who spent most of their roster time based on being a Sept callup.  On the pitching side Jose De Leon and Josh Ravin did not come up until Sept but the others were making their pitch throughout the season.

The Rookie Hitters per Baseball Reference:

Player Age PA OPS R RBI
Corey Seager 22 687 0.877 105 72
Trayce Thompson 25 262 0.738 31 32
Andrew Toles 24 115 0.87 19 16
Rob Segedin 27 83 0.671 9 12
Austin Barnes 26 37 0.458 3 2
Micah Johnson 25 6 0.333 1 0
Player H 2B 3B HR BB SO
Corey Seager 193 40 5 26 54 133
Trayce Thompson 53 11 0 13 26 66
Andrew Toles 33 9 1 3 8 25
Rob Segedin 17 2 1 2 6 22
Austin Barnes 5 1 0 0 5 9
Micah Johnson 1 0 0 0 0 1
Player BA OBP SLG OPS
Corey Seager 0.308 0.365 0.512 0.877
Trayce Thompson 0.225 0.302 0.436 0.738
Andrew Toles 0.314 0.365 0.505 0.87
Rob Segedin 0.233 0.301 0.37 0.671
Austin Barnes 0.156 0.27 0.188 0.458
Micah Johnson 0.167 0.167 0.167 0.333

The Rookie Pitchers per Baseball Reference:

Player Age OPS+ IP W GS G
Kenta Maeda 28 82 175.2 16 32 32
Ross Stripling 26 97 100 5 14 22
Julio Urias 19 104 77 5 15 18
Brock Stewart 24 137 28 2 5 7
Grant Dayton 28 38 26.1 0 0 25
Jose De Leon 23 155 17 2 4 4
Josh Ravin 28 11 9.2 0 0 10
Player H ER BB SO ERA FIP ERA+
Kenta Maeda 150 68 50 179 3.48 3.58 112
Ross Stripling 96 44 30 74 3.96 3.9 98
Julio Urias 81 29 31 84 3.39 3.17 115
Brock Stewart 33 18 12 25 5.79 5.9 68
Grant Dayton 14 6 6 39 2.05 2.96 192
Jose De Leon 19 12 7 15 6.35 6.97 62
Josh Ravin 2 1 4 13 0.93 3.04 434

 

 

Dodgers end season on a red note

allowing the Giants to enter the postseason without even having to play the Cardinals for the right to do so.

Starting the same three pitchers who will try to beat the Nationals, the Dodgers failed to win even one game losing by a combined scored of 19 – 4.  The starters only gave up nine of those nineteen runs, and the bullpen expected to be in play for the postseason only gave up two of those nineteen runs.

Does it mean anything? maybe, maybe not. Still seems clear the Dodgers have a distinct disadvantage when facing LHP but that was known long before the final week of the season.

The important thing is that the ridiculous thing called Sept baseball is over and as we get ready for October baseball the Dodgers will only get to use the normal regulation of 25 players . No more leaning on the crutch of 20 pitchers.

The Dodgers announced yesterday that Andre Ethier has made the postseason roster. Toles was already announced earlier in the week. The outfield is now set with Joc, Reddick, Toles, Puig, and Andre. Add in Howie you have six outfielders. Does that leave a spot for Kike Hernandez? Hernandez had started every game that a LHP started that he was on the active roster until yesterday.  Hernandez ended the season with one of the worst seasons ever for a LAD outfielder with at least 200 plate appearances.

 

 

 

Light-hitting infielder Jedd Gyorko saves Cardinals

by hitting his 30th home run and capping the 8th inning comeback victory for the Cardinals to keep them in the NL Wild Card race. It was quite an at-bat by Gyorko who appeared to be struck out on a 2- 2 pitch, but it was ruled a ball and he had new life and took advantage of it.

Gyorko’s big fly was noteworthy for several reasons. At 100.23 mph, Rivero’s pitch to Gyorko was the third-fastest pitch hit for a home run this season. Only Kurt Suzuki, who homered on a 102.37-mph pitch thrown by Aroldis Chapman, and Coco Crisp, who took a 100.35-mph pitch from Matt Bush over the fence, have hit home runs on faster pitches in 2016.

With one game to go the Cardinals need to win today, and the Dodgers to win today to force a playoff game with Giants for the right to play a play-in game with the Mets.

The odds look good for the Cardinals in their game as they have Wainwright matched up against Vogelsong.  On the Dodger/Giant side,  it is a toss up with Maeda going against Moore. The Giants acquired Moore for just this reason, and it looks very possible,  that Moore will pitch the Giants into a 50/50 chance for the postseason. Moore almost no-hit the Dodgers earlier this year but was also lit up by them in his last start against them.

Back to Gyorko the Cardinal utility infielder started the season with no job but found himself playing 3rd when Peralta got hurt.

 

How is this for insane symmetry, with one game left in the season Goryko has played 27 games at 1st, 2nd, SS, and 3rd.

In only 127 games he has 30 home runs.   Gyorko is the only player in 2016 to hit 30 home runs in less than 450 plate appearances. We have to go to 500 plate appearances to find someone else, and that is Evan Gattis with 32 home runs in 499 plate appearances.

Oh My, I’ve got a dirty little secret

Yup, in the early 1970’s Dick Enberg was my favorite announcer. Sure I loved Vin Scully but truth be told I preferred the styling of Dick Enberg. Dick was a tad more energetic about the sports he broadcast and it didn’t hurt that he was doing the Rams and Bruins, besides the Angels.

Many must have agreed because:

Enberg was named California Sportscaster of the Year four times during this period (1967, 1968, 1970, 1973).[2]

Seth Poho of Baseball Essentials gave a great rundown of the Dick Enberg career.

Enberg has accomplished so much in his long and productive career, but is playing second fiddle to another legendary announcer’s farewell tour this season. With no disrespect directed towards Vin Scully, Enberg is receiving little publicity in his final year behind the microphone compared to the Dodgers’ legendary commentator. Both are icons in their field. Both have been involved with historic moments in sports, including outside of baseball. Both deserve their place as a part of baseball’s history and culture. Dick Enberg has left a lasting impact on broadcasting and baseball.

Not only is Dick Enberg playing second fiddle to Vin Scully in his retirement year, he also played second fiddle to the iconic broadcaster when he worked in Los Angeles. In fact,  y0u could say he always played second fiddle to Scully. When Dick worked for NBC sports he was promised the lead play by play for the NBC GOTW, but NBC ended up hiring Vin Scully to be the lead play by play and reneged on the promise to Enberg.

According to his autobiography, Oh My!, Enberg was informed by NBC that he would become the lead play-by-play voice of Major League Baseball Game of the Week beginning with the 1982 World Series (for which he served as pregame host and shared play-by-play duties with Joe Garagiola alongside analyst Tony Kubek) and through subsequent regular seasons. He wrote that on his football trips, he would read every Sporting News to make sure he was current with all the baseball news and notes. Then he met with NBC executives in September 1982, and they informed him that Vin Scully was in negotiations to be their lead baseball play-by-play man (teaming with Garagiola while Kubek would team with Bob Costas) and would begin with the network in the spring of 1983.

Anyway, it is a darn shame to me that Dick and Vin decided to retire the same year. I would have liked to have seen Dick get a little more credit for what he brought to the broadcasting world, which was a lot more than Oh My. Dick made my Rams come to life for me and thank god he was broadcasting when Frank Tanana was the man on the mound for the Angels.  Dick and Olsen were my favorite duo doing NFL football.

I only wish he had come back to the Angels instead of heading for San Diego, but I’m glad the Padres gave the old announcer one more chance to call baseball.

Thanks Dick, enjoy your retirement, and while you may have played second fiddle to Vin Scully for most of your career, you were number one in my heart when I was but a lad.

 

 

 

See you in March, Mr. McCarthy

Any chance of Brandon McCarthy making the postseason roster went up in smoke last night. A sad ending to a tough year for the good-natured McCarthy.

He started the season in rehabilitation over the TJ surgery he had last spring and surprised everyone by being able to pitch his first major league game of 2016 on July 3rd. Brandon not only came back early he pitched well, and for four starts he was just about the best pitcher in the rotation.

The turning point came in his fifth start. Just like the first four,  he was dynamite in the beginning and even struck out the side in the third inning. I was so impressed I commented over at TBLA that McCarthy was “something-something great”. And then he wasn’t. The Rays knocked him out in 4th, and that was the last time anything good was said about Brandon’s pitching until Sept 25th.

His first four games:
22 IP, 9 hits, 4 earned runs, 7 walks, 26 strikeouts

His next six games:
17 IP, 20 hits, 18 earned runs, 19 walks, 18 strikeouts

In 2016 the Dodgers had no idea what to expect from Ryu and McCarthy, and headed into 2017 they will be in the same boat. The difference is that next year unless the Dodgers make some trades, they have the more experienced kiddie corp ready for to step in if they falter once again.

The arms of Julio Urias / Jose De Leon / Ross Stripling / Brock Stewart will provide the Dodgers with plenty of depth as they wait to see if Brandon McCarthy / Ryu / Kazmir can right their ships next spring.

I’m rooting for McCarthy and Ryu to become candidates for Comeback Player of the Year, but it is hard to expect anything.

Urias ends season needing one more K

to tie Ralph Branca for most strikeouts for a Dodger by the end of their age 19 baseball season.

Obviously,  Julio Urias holds the LAD record for most strikeouts for a LAD by the end of his 19-year-old baseball season, having passed Joe Moeller months ago. Joe had 46 and his record stood since 1964.

Looking to next year, if Urias is healthy he’ll have no problem knocking Clayton Kershaw off the list. Clayton had 100 K’s by the end of his 20-year-old baseball season. Fernando is however, the gold standard, and Julio will need to strike out 112 hitters next year to tie Fernando. That seems doable, but with baseball you just never know.

So with the LAD era conquered we looked to bigger pastures and took on the entire Dodger history, and sadly Julio is just one shy of being on top of that mountain.

Ralph had 85, Julio ends the year with 84, and Don Drysdale had 55. Ralph had the benefit of being called up at age 18 during the war years in 44/45. It also took Ralph 154 innings to get those 85 strikeouts, while Julio did it in 77.

I probably won’t be shy about adding what Julio does in the postseason to get him past 85 K’s. He is a big reason the Dodgers will be playing in October.

As usual thanks to Baseball Reference for being the source of all this information, and their excellent searchable play index.  Any article I’ve written that involves baseball stats, you can bet www.baseballreference.com is the source.

 

Player SO Years Age GS W IP
Ralph Branca 85 1944-45 18-19 16 5 154.1
Julio Urias 84 2016 19-19 15 5 77
Don Drysdale 55 1956 19-19 12 5 99
Player H ER BB ERA FIP ERA+
Ralph Branca 119 72 111 4 4 88
Julio Urias 81 29 31 3 3 115
Don Drysdale 95 29 31 3 3 152

Seems safe to say that Julio Urias is the best nineteen-year-old the Dodgers have had in their history since HOF Don Drysdale. Being the best 20-year-old is a whole different story with plenty of competition.

As noted in the Erv Palica story he’s going to be joining some rarefied air next year if he’s able to pitch as a baseball season twenty-year-old.

Roster?

Everyone seems to be discussing what the 25 man roster will be for the first round. Tonight Urias should have cemented his hold on being the number one option to start game four.

The Dodgers should enter the postseason with nary an injury among their position players. As healthy a group as they have had headed into the postseason. As long as Scherzer and company don’t break one of the LAD ribs that should hold for the first round.

The rotation enters with a bit of trepidation about Rich Hill’s blisters. Clayton Kershaw has a fresh enough arm that they could throw him in game four, but I’m not sure we can count on Rich Hill for game five, so it might be best if game four is not a  must win to go with Urias and let Kershaw handle game five. If game four is a must win, you probably have to go with Clayton instead of the rookie.

The bullpen is as healthy as it could be.

All in all, given all the injuries the Dodgers have suffered this season, they will enter the postseason in a very good spot. Sure it would have been great to know Brandon McCarthy was completely healthy and ready to take the ball in game four. And maybe he is.

This is the roster I’d send out against the Nationals:

Player | Pos
Grandal | C
Ruiz | C
Adrian Gonzalez | 1st
Chase Utley | 2nd
Seager | SS
Turner | 3rd
Reddick | RF/PH
Joc | CF/PH
Puig | RF/LF/CF
Kendrick | LF
Toles | LF/RF/CF/Pinch Runner/PH
Hernandez | CF/Pinch Hitter
Andre Ethier | PinchHitter

and

Player | Pos
Kershaw | Game One
Rich Hill | Game Two
Kenta Maeda | Game Three
Julio Urias | Game Four
Grant Drayton | LHS
Blanton | RHS
Jansen | Closer
Avilan | LHS
Wood | LHS
Stripling | RHS
Baez | RHS
JP Howell | LHS

Against RHP the starting lineup will go eight deep. Even if they choose Kendrick over Puig or Toles to start in LF that is a long lineup. Defensively they can sub in either Puig or Toles in LF.

Yet, even with all the Dodger depth,  they are a weakened lineup against LHP. Replacing Reddick with Puig is a wash, but replacing Joc with Hernandez doesn’t help much.  Gonzalez is weaker, Grandal is weaker, Turner is weaker. It is no wonder the team struggles against LHP, but the only LH starter they will be facing is Gio Gonzalez.

Since the last player on the roster is going to be mainly a pinch hitter I elected to go with Andre over Culberson or Segedin. Sept baseball is gone so the starters will be pitching deeper, and the big pinch-hitting could be coming late in the game. Mark Melancon is a rhp so I think Andre is the choice here. Andre didn’t exactly light it up but I’d rather have him at bat in the 9th in a critical spot than Segedin or Culberson.

The pitching choices seemed easy, these are the best pitchers the Dodgers have right now. I’d have preferred the May version of Liberatore but he doesn’t exist so, so I’m going with the current version of Avilan.  Hopefully, 1/2 the pitchers in the eight-man bullpen never need to pitch.

I’d prefer the games play out like so:

Kershaw for 7, Blanton for 1, Jansen for 1 (3 – 1 victory)

Hill for 6, Baez or Grant Drayton for 1, Blanton for 1, Jansen for 1 (4 – 3 victory)

Kenta for 5, Baez for 1, Drayton for 1, Blanton for 1, Jansen for 1 (6 -4 victory)

Tyler Chatwood once again dominates on the road

leading the Rockies to a 2 – 0 victory over the Giants.  Chatwood saved his best for last putting up a season high game score of 83.  For the season Chatwood made 13 starts on the road and gave up four runs once, three runs once, and every other game was two runs or less.

Date Opp Rslt Dec IP H ER BB SO GSc
6-Apr ARI W4-3 W(1-0) 6.1 7 1 0 3 56
17-Apr CHC W2-0 W(2-1) 7 2 0 1 7 79
29-Apr ARI W9-0 W(3-2) 6.1 5 0 3 4 64
4-May SDP W2-0 W(4-2) 8 3 0 1 7 82
21-May PIT W5-1 6 6 1 2 2 56
6-Jun LAD W6-1 W(7-4) 8 1 1 4 5 77
18-Jun MIA L6-9 1.2 4 3 3 2 34
5-Jul SFG W7-3 5 3 1 4 4 55
29-Jul NYM W6-1 W(10-6) 7 3 1 4 4 67
14-Aug PHI L6-7 L(10-8) 4 6 4 5 4 29
9-Sep SDP W4-1 W(11-9) 6.2 5 1 3 5 62
22-Sep LAD L4-7 6 5 2 4 5 55
28-Sep SFG W2-0 W(12-9) 8 3 0 2 9 83

Many sabermetric folk kept waiting for Chatwood to normalize but he ended the season without it happening, and even finished with a BB/KK flourish to further compound the pundits.

That loss by the Giants, coupled with the Mets win put the Mets 1 1/2 games in front of the Giants. The crippled Met rotation once again looked to 26-year-old rookie Seth Lugo, and once again the rookie did just enough to get the victory. Lugo isn’t pretty, but he is getting the job done. Jay Bruce slugged the key home run giving him home runs in back to back games for the first time as a Met. The trade deadline acquisition had been a bust for the Mets posting a sub .700 OPS but is coming alive at just the right time. That was his 3rd home run in the last five games.

The Cardinals didn’t take advantage of the Giants loss and fell themselves to the Reds 2 – 1. The Cardinals offense picked a bad time to take an off day against Anthony DeSclafaniEx-Dodger Jose Peraza picked up three more hits to key the victory for the Reds. Peraza is hitting a cool .330 and is now a fixture as the Red lead off man. The Reds aren’t sure where he’s going to play using him 27 games at SS, 12 at 2nd, and 21 in the outfield.

And how about that AL wild card? The Blue Jays and Orioles are beating themselves up while trying to stay ahead of the Tigers and Mariners.

1965 World Series Game Seven

was on sportsnetla the other day during the debates. It was grainy and b/w but still a thrill to watch what I’d considered the greatest game seven pitching performance since Johnny Podres, when you consider the context

Sandy Koufax was pitching on two days rest,  on the road, against a powerful Twin lineup, and shut them out. I might be biased.

Other notable Game 7’s since 1955:

  • Mickey Lolich in 1968 with two days rest Lolich beat the Cardinals 4 – 1.
  • Lew Burdette in 1957 with two days rest threw a shutout, Lew also threw a shutout in game 5.
  • Ralph Terry threw a 1 – 0 shutout in game 7 but he did it on five days rest after winning game five. I’m assuming rain was involved
  • Jack Morris in 1991 threw a ten-inning shutout to win game seven 1 – 0.  He did it at home, and hadn’t started since game four, but it was still one of the greatest game seven performances ever.
  • In 2001 Randy Johnson started game six and won, then pitched two innings in relief in game seven and won.
  • Madison Bumgarner in 2014 won game five pitching a complete game shutout, and came back on two days rest to pitch five innings of shutout ball in relief to win game seven.

The Dodgers had lost the first two games in Minneapolis, with the Twins beating both Drysdale and Koufax. Claude Osteen righted the ship by shutting out the Twins in game 3. Drysdale came back to win game four. On Oct 11th, Sandy shut them out 7 – 0 and the Dodgers had a 3 – 2 game lead but the series was headed back to Minneapolis. The powerful Twins behind Mudcat Grant beat Osteen to even the series at 3 games a piece.

Now it was Oct 14th, and Sandy was starting game 7. Or was he?  Both Sandy and Don warmed up in the bullpen, Don had an extra day of rest, but Walter Alston went with Sandy Koufax.  Don Drysdale continued to warm up each inning just in case he was needed.

It looks like he sat down for good after the 5th.  Lou Johnson was the hitting star,  slugging a home run to break a scoreless game in the 4th inning. That would be the only run Sandy Koufax would need but it was not without some help. Junior Jim Gilliam who was usually replaced for defensive purposes by John Kennedy made a sparkling backhand of a shot down the line by AL MVP Zoilo Versalles with runners on 1st and 2nd with only one out and turned it into a force out at 3rd base. That was the play of the game as Sandy controlled the Twins the rest of the game.

In watching this old game I was struck by several things:

  • The check swing was sure different. Don Mincher took two swings in the same at-bat that were called check swings, and they were almost full swings, easily would have been called swings in today’s game.  He would have struck out easily in today’s game, I noticed this throughout the game.  I wonder how many K’s that cost pitchers in those days.
  • Pitch Counts were a thing, even in 1965. Vin mentioned how they would need to keep an eye on how many pitches that Don Drysdale was throwing in the bullpen behind Sandy.
  • Vin called the game as though it was any other game in a 162 game season. Very subdued.
  • Vin was surprised and sometimes incredulous that the Twin hitters were going after the first pitch given that Sandy was pitching on two days rest.
  • Maury Wills hooks slide was a thing of beauty. Would have loved to have seen that using today’s replays to see how he evaded gloves.
  • Lou Johnson not only hit the game-winning home run, he also made two fine catches in foul territory from left field.
  • Vin seemed very impressed with Zoilo. I remember him saying years later after we had acquired Zoilo that he had one of the greatest spring training he’d ever seen but once the season started he was horrible.
  • Batting helmets were just being used, most players still wore only hats.
  • Pitchers were expected to pitch to more than one hitter
  • Even in 1965 in Minneapolis,  the male fans wore shirts and ties, and the woman were all in skirts.
  • The Championship celebration was incredibly muted.  Some hugs, and then they simply left the field and headed for the clubhouse.
  • I had the 1964 Twin baseball cards when I was around seven (1965) and seeing Tony Olivo, Harmon Killebrew, Bobby Allison, and Zoilo Versalles was a kick in the pants. Tony was infamous for losing his bat after his swings and sure enough,  he sent the bat flying about 30 yards at least twice.