Dodgers might have three top five MVP candidates
The first is certainly Justin Turner, and I’ll be the first to admit I mocked a comment over at TBLA when someone suggested that Turner might win the MVP back in March. I liked Turner but I never thought he could put together a full-season of MVP worthy stats. I was wrong, Justin Turner is certainly in the MVP conversation as we pass the 100 game part of the season.
The second is Cody Bellinger who ignited the Dodger offense when he joined the team in late April. Cody has slowed down in July but he still finds ways to contribute key clutch hits while displaying prodigious defensive tools for a 1st baseman. The clean up hitter on a team that has won 70 games on July 25th is going to get a long look by the MVP committee.
The shocking 3rd option is not Corey Seager but Chris Taylor. As much as Cody Bellinger saved the Dodgers this year when Adrian Gonzalez went down, Chris Taylor did the same when Andrew Toles went down. He just won’t stop hitting. Using Fangraphs, he’s the second best hitter in the NL in July. He only trails someone named Harper. The metrics are small sample size but he’s playing LF like he was born to it. We had recently had to watch Carl Crawford with his speed hesitate on just about every ball, Toles seemed to be in the same mode. Taylor flies to the ball like a magnet to a steel frig. Such a joy to watch play LF, and what an arm. He made an error on Monday, and I think it was the first ball I’d ever seen him misplay. Taylor also has great baserunning instincts. He is very aggressive and takes lots of chances, but for the most part, they pay off. He’s the best LF in the NL. Here are the stats to prove it.
Taylor is not without some red flags. The great walk rate he had earlier in the year has cratered but you don’t notice because he gets two hits every night. His BABIP is over .500 in July and sits at .426 for the season. No one can carry a BABIP that high so regression is due. But he does seem to barrel up just about everything, so while we know there has to be regression it does seem reasonable to expect Chris Taylor to be an above average core player for the Dodgers for years to come. Right now he’s the best LF in the NL. Here are the stats to prove it.
From Fangraphs, NL, Left Fielders.
| Name | WAR | wRC+ | wOBA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BABIP |
| Chris Taylor | 3.5 | 147 | 0.395 | 12 | 52 | 47 | 12 | 0.426 |
| Michael Conforto | 3 | 154 | 0.406 | 19 | 55 | 52 | 2 | 0.345 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 2.9 | 136 | 0.383 | 23 | 54 | 72 | 0 | 0.36 |
| Cody Bellinger | 2.7 | 146 | 0.393 | 28 | 56 | 67 | 6 | 0.291 |
| Adam Duvall | 1.9 | 112 | 0.35 | 20 | 49 | 65 | 5 | 0.317 |
| Gregory Polanco | 0.8 | 95 | 0.317 | 9 | 33 | 29 | 8 | 0.286 |
| Hernan Perez | 0.8 | 84 | 0.31 | 11 | 35 | 36 | 8 | 0.283 |
| Matt Kemp | 0.3 | 111 | 0.345 | 14 | 40 | 47 | 0 | 0.344 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.2 | 82 | 0.302 | 15 | 38 | 31 | 0 | 0.204 |
And just for fun this is what he has done lately.
Since the all-star break:
Date PA H 2B 3B HR RBI Jul 14 4 2 0 0 0 0 Jul 15 5 2 0 1 0 0 Jul 16 4 1 0 1 0 0 Jul 18 5 4 1 0 0 0 Jul 19 4 3 1 0 1 2 Jul 20 4 2 1 0 0 0 Jul 21 4 0 0 0 0 0 Jul 22 2 2 0 1 1 3 Jul 23 5 2 0 0 0 0 Jul 24 4 3 0 0 0 1 Jul 25 4 2 2 0 0 3
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/26/2017.
Of course, the Nationals have three of their own very credible MVP candidates in Harper, Rendon, and Zimmerman. There is a reason why these are the two best teams in the NL.
Cool prospect links and notes
DJ Peters on being the home town kid.
“He would be so mad if he knew I told you this, but every night in the month when he shuts down right after the season, all I see in his bed are Reese’s peanut butter cups and hot Cheetos. I mean, it’s awful,” Shelly said with a laugh. “He goes to sleep with the hot Cheetos. I ask him if he brushed his teeth. And he’s like, ‘Yeah, sure.’ I’m like, ‘No you didn’t.’ He’s bad during that first month in the off-season.
Brendon Davis got promoted to Rancho. The 2nd/SS/3rd will get out of the way of Gavin Lux. Even though Davis and Lux are the same age, Davis clearly outhit Lux while with the Loons but the 2016 number one pick Lux continues to rank much higher than Davis on the prospect charts. Takes a while before that number one pick luster loses its shine.
2017 number one pick Jeren Kendall has already been promoted to the Loons. Good to see the Dodgers being aggressive with Jeren, he certainly was too good for the Pioneer League. I expect his teammate Starling Heredia to join him shortly.
Heredia/Paz/Clementina make Pioneer League All-Star Team
The Dodger Pioneer League affiliate the Ogden Raptors had a league leading three all-stars with Starling Heredia, Hendrik Clementina , and Luis Paz all named to the Pioneer League All-Star team.
Kind of weird to here about an all-star team on July 24th, but the short rookie league seasons have to have their day in the sun too.
Heredia …. Signed for $2.6 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2015, the 18-year-old outfielder has impressed in his first stateside season. He spent seven games in the AZL, going 12-for-28 (.429) with six extra-base hits, before moving up to Ogden on July 5 — and he hasn’t cooled off. The right-handed-hitting slugger owns a .422/.500/.766 line with four homers, one triple and eight doubles in 15 games since joining the Raptors.
Since I don’t pay much attention to the short season teams, this is the first time I’ve heard of Hendrik Clementina and Luiz Paz.
Clementina is a catcher from Curacao, which is where Kenley Jansen hails from. If you remember, Kenley Jansen was also a catcher for the Ogden Raptors back in 2007. Two years later Jansen was converted to a pitcher and the rest is history. Clementina split time in 2016 between 1st and catcher but seems to have settled in strictly as a catcher in 2017.
Luis Paz just turned 21 this month and is from Brazil. I didn’t even know the Dodgers had anyone in the system from Brazil. Paz leads the Pioneer league in home runs with ten and slug% at .768. I’m not sure what Paz is. In 2017 he has caught a little (4 games), played some 1st base (5 games), played some DH (6), and played the outfield (10 games).
Long and winding road for 1st win for Edward Paredes at age 30
When Edward Paredes took the mound at Dodger Stadium last night you might not have known who he was and for good reason. No one did.
“First of all I want to thank God. It’s been 11 long years to get to this point,” said Paredes. “I want to thank my family, my wife. I’m glad I have the opportunity to show the world what I can do. I’m proud of myself. Sometimes you put obstacles in front of you and the best you can do you can do what you set out to do.”
The win may not be a symbol anymore of baseball pitching excellence but you can bet that Paredes will take that game ball and keep it the rest of his life and hopefully tell the story to his children and his grandchildren.
MLB debut: ✔️
First win: ✔️👏👏 #LetsGoDodgers pic.twitter.com/KzKPzVHfvs
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) July 25, 2017
How many major league pitchers get their first win at the age of 30? I wish I knew how to find out. What I do know how to do is show you the long and winding road that Paredes took to finally get that first major league win. Anyone who hits the independent leagues and makes it to the major leagues should get a ribbon that they would get to wear proudly on their uniform.
Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff 2006 19 Mariners DOSL FRk SEA 2007 20 Tacoma PCL AAA SEA 2007 20 Everett NORW A- SEA 2008 21 WestTenn SOUL AA SEA 2008 21 Wisconsin MIDW A SEA 2009 22 WestTenn SOUL AA SEA 2009 22 HighDesert CALL A+ SEA 2009-10 22 Aguilas DOWL FgW 2010 23 Tacoma PCL AAA SEA 2010 23 WestTenn SOUL AA SEA 2010-11 23 Aguilas DOWL FgW 2011 24 Tacoma PCL AAA SEA 2011 24 Jackson SOUL AA SEA 2011-12 24 Aguilas DOWL FgW 2012-13 25 Aguilas DOWL FgW 2013 26 Akron EL AA CLE 2013-14 26 Aguilas DOWL FgW 2013 26 York ATLL Ind 2014-15 27 Aguilas DOWL FgW 2014 27 York ATLL Ind 2015-16 28 Escogido DOWL FgW 2015 28 York ATLL Ind 2016 29 Arkansas TL AA LAA 2016-17 29 Escogido DOWL FgW 2017 30 LAD NL MLB LAD 2017 30 OklahomaCity PCL AAA LAD 2017 30 Tulsa TL AA LAD Mino Mino Mino Minors Fore Fore Fore Foreign Othe Othe Othe Other All All All
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/25/2017.
Cody Bellinger moving up with 28
With Cody Bellinger on pace to set the new NL Rookie Home Run record, I thought now would be a good time to look at the names he’ll be passing on his way to the record.
Frank Robinson blasted those 38 home runs way back in 1956 when he was just 20 years old. That record was able to survive the PED years. The second youngest player to ever hit at least 28 home runs as a rookie? Cody Bellinger. Tied with Pujols
Dodgers on the list include Piazza, Bellinger, Seager, and Pederson.
Fun little item.
Joc was 23 when he hit 26 in 2015
Corey was 22 when hit 26 in 2016
Cody is 21 with his 28 in 2017
The list below is every NL Rookie to hit at least 25 home runs. The list includes HOF Frank Robinson, HOF Mike Piazza, HOF Billy Williams, HOF Orlando Cepeda, and HOF Eddie Mathews. Both Cepeda and Mathews were only 20 when the hit their 25 rookie home runs.
Players still active on this list are Albert Pujols, Ryan Braun, Chris Young, Bellinger, Story, Seager, Pederson, Bryant.
Eight players are still active and three of them are Dodgers and all are still 25 or younger. Yeah baby.
Player HR Year Age Tm PA OPS Pos Frank Robinson (RoY-1st) 38 1956 20 CIN 667 .936 *7/8H Wally Berger 38 1930 24 BSN 628 .990 *7/H Albert Pujols (RoY-1st) 37 2001 21 STL 676 1.013 5379/HD Mike Piazza (RoY-1st) 35 1993 24 LAD 602 .932 *2/H3 Ryan Braun (RoY-1st) 34 2007 23 MIL 492 1.004 *5/H Earl Williams (RoY-1st) 33 1971 22 ATL 550 .815 253H Chris Young (RoY-4th) 32 2007 23 ARI 624 .763 *8/H Jim Ray Hart (RoY-2nd) 31 1964 22 SFG 625 .840 *5/9H7 Willie Montanez (RoY-2nd) 30 1971 23 PHI 683 .798 *89/3H Dave Kingman 29 1972 23 SFG 531 .765 537/H Dick Allen (RoY-1st) 29 1964 22 PHI 709 .939 *5 Bobby Thomson 29 1947 23 NYG 591 .844 *8/4H Cody Bellinger 28 2017 21 LAD 334 .973 *37/9HD Wilin Rosario (RoY-4th) 28 2012 23 COL 426 .843 *2H/53 Prince Fielder (RoY-7th) 28 2006 22 MIL 648 .831 *3/HD David Justice (RoY-1st) 28 1990 24 ATL 504 .908 *39/H7 Trevor Story 27 2016 23 COL 415 .909 *6/H Dan Uggla (RoY-3rd) 27 2006 26 FLA 683 .818 *4/HD Corey Seager 26 2016 22 LAD 687 .877 *6/H Joc Pederson 26 2015 23 LAD 585 .763 *8H Kris Bryant 26 2015 23 CHC 650 .858 *5/789HD3 Josh Willingham (RoY-9th) 26 2006 27 FLA 573 .852 *7/HD32 Jason Bay (RoY-1st) 26 2004 25 PIT 472 .907 *7/H8 Preston Wilson (RoY-2nd) 26 1999 24 FLA 543 .852 *879H Darryl Strawberry (RoY-1st) 26 1983 21 NYM 473 .848 *9/H Todd Helton (RoY-2nd) 25 1998 24 COL 595 .911 *3H Billy Williams (RoY-1st) 25 1961 23 CHC 584 .822 *79H Orlando Cepeda (RoY-1st) 25 1958 20 SFG 643 .854 *3/H Eddie Mathews (RoY-3rd) 25 1952 20 BSN 593 .767 *5/H
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/25/2017.
Dodgers place 6 in revised MLB Prospect top 100
MLB finally released their midseason top 100 prospect list and six Dodgers made the top 100 list.
- Walker Buehler at 13 – preseason rank was 93 – big jump
- Alex Verdugo at 28 – preseason rank was 61 – big jump
- Yadier Alvarez at 51 – preseason rank was 49 – not much movement
- Willie Calhoun at 71 – preseason rank was 82 – some movement
- Jeren Kendall at 86 – Not Ranked in Preseason, just drafted
- Yusniel Diaz at 89 – Not Ranked in Preseason – so big jump
I’ll have a post up later comparing the midseason ranking to the preseason ranking. Cody Bellinger fell off the list with his promotion and Jeren Kendall popped right onto it.
With the trading deadline looming, and Yu Darvish name in play, some of these would need to go to make that happen. At least Jeren Kendall can rest assured he will still be in the Dodger organization after the trading deadline passes.
I don’t see a name on the list that I’d really regret if the return was Yu Darvish.
Chasing Piazza / Robinson / Green / McGwire with number 28
While doing this chase segment for Cody Bellinger I’ve been remiss in leaving out Frank Robinson and Wally Berger who both hold the NL rookie home run single season record of 38.
With Joc Pederson and Corey Seager dropping off after Cody Bellinger hit his 27th home run on Sunday, I’ll add Frank Robinson to the chart to see how Cody is doing at his current pace.
With two home runs in two days, Cody has picked the pace back up. He’s well ahead of the Piazza pace to break the all time Dodger rookie home run record of 35. He is also well ahead of the Frank Robinson pace to break the all time NL rookie home run record of 38. He is well behind the pace to break the all time AL and Major league rookie home run record of 49. He is exactly on pace to tie or break the Dodger all time home run record set by Shawn Green at 49.
| Player | PA | HR | HR/PA | July 24th | Total | Leader | Year |
| Mike Piazza | 486 | 28 | 17.36 | 20 | 35 | LAD Rookie HR | 1993 |
| Frank Robinson | 500 | 28 | 17.86 | 21 | 38 | NL Rookie HR | 1956 |
| Mark McGwire | 280 | 28 | 10.00 | 36 | 49 | AL Rookie HR | 1987 |
| Shawn Green | 440 | 28 | 15.71 | 28 | 49 | LAD All-time HR | 2001 |
| Cody Bellinger | 334 | 28 | 11.93 | 28 | ??? | Chasing | 2017 |
If this confusing here is a quick legend.
PA – this is the number of plate appearances it took for each player to reach 28 home runs. We used 28 home runs because that is where Bellinger is right now. This would be within 4 PA of accuracy as I didn’t check the game log for the specific plate appearance they hit the home run.
HR – This is a marker showing you 28 home runs.
HR/PA – this is the home runs per plate appearance pace when they each hit their 28th home run.
Total HR though July 24th
Total – season home run total
Leader – this is why they are on the list. For example Mike Piazza is the LAD Rookie Home Run Leader
Year – this is the year they accomplished the home run record that Cody Bellinger is chasing
Crap, Kershaw goes down
Just a few days ago I was about to write about how the NL league leader in games started had bounced back quite nicely from his back troubles of a year ago.
So much for that column. Guess we won’t have a Clayton Kershaw CYA debate again this year.
Shooting from the hip I really felt this was just a tweak and that he would miss one or two starts so the news that he is out for four – six weeks is bad news. If he can come back as healthy as he left, or as healthy as he was last October, this should not be a big deal in the short term.
In the long term though, meaning October, this is a blow. At least his arm will be fresh which is what we told ourselves last year but that didn’t help him as he struggled with his starts against the Nationals. He made four starts last year in the postseason and pitched one gem but again came up short in his final start of the season.
The problem is the six weeks brings up to Sept, and October is only one month after that. Quite dicey to expect Clayton to be at his best one month after coming back from this current back ailment. We won’t know for six weeks so we will just have to wait.
The rotation clog is about to be tested. You can only hope that the blip that Alex Wood hit on Friday was just a blip. Rich Hill has come up huge, and he may have to handle a large load until Sept. Kenta / Ryu need to prove they are bonafide major league rotation options for a team with post season aspirations.
Not many teams could handle losing Urias and now Kershaw. We will find out if the Dodgers are one of them. Good thing they went on that crazy run and have built a ten game lead.
Might be time for Brock Stewart to get his shot in the rotation this year but damn, he’s been so good out of the bullpen you hate to lose that piece.
FREE WILMER, uh, probably not.
I wouldn’t consider trading for Darvish a panicky trade, but I would consider it a good baseball sense trade depending on the price. If Texas tries to hold us up because they think we have to have Darvish, screw em.
Anyway, get well soon Clayton. A World Series MVP is better than a CYA any day of the week.
Damn, I agree with Dylan
Dylan Hernandez has mostly become an annoying columnist following in the vein of TJ Simers since leaving the Dodger beat, but he does make a valid point in this column.
The Dodgers should trade for Yu Darvish if he is available.
I know that getting a relief pitcher like Andrew Miller is all the rage right now but I’ve always been a fan of zigging when everyone else is zagging.
Being a rental who knows what the price would be but right now I’m not married to any particular prospect. Unlike Seager/Urias/Bellinger I could part with any of them and not feel much remorse.
This is the best team the Dodgers have had over their recent run of Western division dominance so getting to October should not be the point of acquiring Darvish, the point of acquiring Darvish would be to advance to the World Series. Darvish is the type of pitcher that would seem to give teams who don’t seem him often particular trouble.
For example, the top seven teams in lowest OPS against are all NL teams. This is all small sample size but you will note in the table below that they aggregate Inter-League which is 15 starts and he’s been great against NL opponents.
He’s also been great against the Houston Astros even though he has faced them fourteen times, and Houston is the odds on favorite to advance for the AL to the World Series.
While a rental, Yu may find that pitching for the Dodgers in Los Angeles in August beats the hell out of pitching in Dallas in August. Plus he’ll find that he loves Los Angeles just as Nomo/Kuroda/Saito did before him.
Of course, I doubt the Rangers trade him, they are after all still in the wild card hunt in the AL. Just saying if they do trade him, it would behoove the Dodgers to be the team that acquires him.
I Split G PA BB SO SO/W OPS tOPS+
Philadelphia Phillies 1 27 2 9 4.50 .422 32
Washington Nationals 1 31 2 12 6.00 .433 35
Pittsburgh Pirates 2 44 2 13 6.50 .447 39
Miami Marlins 1 32 3 10 3.33 .488 54
Chicago Cubs 1 20 4 9 2.25 .488 55
Cincinnati Reds 2 55 9 13 1.44 .532 69
Arizona Diamondbacks 2 56 0 28 .560 70
Tampa Bay Rays 6 163 13 52 4.00 .557 72
Inter-League 15 400 30 134 4.47 .555 72
Kansas City Royals 5 135 6 37 6.17 .573 76
Houston Astros 14 358 30 118 3.93 .603 86
Toronto Blue Jays 8 220 20 65 3.25 .608 88
Minnesota Twins 3 83 7 25 3.57 .622 92
New York Yankees 6 153 7 43 6.14 .648 98
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 16 420 45 132 2.93 .643 99
San Diego Padres 2 55 3 14 4.67 .657 102
Detroit Tigers 7 196 20 47 2.35 .657 102
NY Mets 2 49 3 15 5.00 .682 107
Seattle Mariners 12 325 34 81 2.38 .667 108
Cleveland Indians 6 166 19 48 2.53 .704 117
Boston Red Sox 4 115 8 39 4.88 .747 129
Oakland Athletics 16 407 45 110 2.44 .750 131
Chicago White Sox 3 86 9 26 2.89 .809 149
Baltimore Orioles 1 24 1 9 9.00 .944 183
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/24/2017.
Dodgers, Yesterday and Today 