LAD – By the numbers 06/21/17

♦ June 22, 2016 ♦ 1 Comment

After struggling with one run games the Dodgers have won their last four, improving to 11-13 overall in one run games.

After 73 games the Dodgers are 40 – 33, the exact same record they had in 2015 after 73 games.

The Dodgers have homered in 12 consecutive games. The last time the Dodgers homered in 12 consecutive games was from May 23-June 4, 2002.  If the Dodgers homer tonight it will be the first time they have homered in 13 consecutive games since 2001.

The Dodgers lead the NL with 31 home runs in June, led by Justin Turner with 7, Seager with 6, Joc with 5, and Thompson with 4.

Chase Utley still sitting on 999 runs scored for his career. He simply need to get on base before someone launches a three run home run

With a victory tonight the Dodgers will sweep the Nationals for the first time at home since April 27-29, 2012.

The Dodgers have won 13 of their last 16 home games

Howie Kendrick is batting .186 in the fifteen games he has started in LF since May 25th.  Howie will not be starting tonight in LF .

 

 

 

 

 

Before Cory Seager there was Billy Grabarkewitz

♦ June 22, 2016 ♦ 6 Comments

[update to reflect final season stats for Seager, found at bottom]

Cory Seager is getting all the attention these days, and the rookie SS deserves it. In 1970 Billy Grabarkewitz was making the same kind of impact for the LAD. Billy Grabarkewitz was not a rookie in 1970 but just like Corey Seager in 2016, 1970 was his first full year. Billy had only 70 plate appearances headed into 1970, Seager had 113 headed into 2016. Yet Seager is classified as a rookie and Billy was not. Time spent on Major League roster I guess.

Update August 27th[Found this exceptional mini biography of Grabarkewitz at the sabre.org/proj]

Billy had shown up in 1969 and produced like a banjo hitting infielder,  batting only .095 in 65 at bats in four different call ups. Yet his minor league pedigree suggested much more, so it was no surprise that he made the team out of spring training in 1970.

What was a big surprise was that Billy was one of the best hitters in baseball for the first few months of 1970.  He easily made the all-star team, and would even play a key role in one of the most famous all-star games in history. The 1970 All-Star game went into extra innings and is famous for Pete Rose bowling over Ray Fosse to win the game. It was Billy who singled  to move Pete Rose into scoring position for that eventual scamper home on a Jim Hickman (ex-Dodger) single.  Billy would end his all-star career batting 1.000 because that was his only all-star game appearance.

The Dodgers in 1970 had the misfortune of playing in the same division as the Big Red Machine. They started the season by being swept by the Reds in the first three games. Steve Garvey played 3rd base, and Maury Wills played SS.  1969 ROY Ted Sizemore was entrenched at 2nd base.  For Billy to find a place to play he would need to unseat a Dodger legend at SS, or beat out Steve Garvey at 3rd base. The Dodgers lost the first five games of 1970 with Garvey at 3rd base.  They turned to Grabarkewitz on April 12th, batting 8th he drove in two runs and the Dodgers had their first victory of 1970. And that was the start of an amazing season by Billy Grabarkewitz.

For context this is what Billy and Seager have done by June 21st, 1970.

Stats Grabarkewitz Seager
PA 253 308
Doubles 9 16
Triples 3 1
Home Runs 6 15
Runs 32 46
RBI 39 36
Walks 37 26
BA 0.330 0.283
OBP 0.434 0.344
Slug% 0.490 0.509

Cory Seager is having an epic first full season campaign but as you can see Billy  was also quite epic in his first full season. That OBP  wasn’t just fueled by his high BA, Billy was getting on base by hit or walk. And doing that while still posting a huge above average slug %.  Let’s take a look at NL 3rd baseman in 1970 for context:

The table below represents the 1970 3rd baseman with qualified for a batting title, sorted by OPS.  The full statistical list can be found here:

Player BA OBP SLG OPS R RBI
Tony Perez (HOF) 0.317 0.401 0.589 0.990 107 129
Billy Grabarkewitz 0.289 0.399 0.454 0.852 92 84
Ron Santo (HOF) 0.267 0.369 0.476 0.844 83 114
Don Money 0.295 0.361 0.463 0.824 66 66
Doug Rader 0.252 0.322 0.436 0.758 90 87
Clete Boyer 0.246 0.305 0.381 0.686 44 62

Up until June 21st, Billy was the full-time 3rd baseman. However on June 21st, Maury Wills would get hurt, and Billy would take over SS for the next month, starting at Shorstop from June 22nd to July 25th.

Billy blasted out of the gates in 1970 and did this month by month:

Month PA HR BA OBP Slug OPS
April 57 2 0.333 0.464 0.533 0.997
May 117 2 0.394 0.479 0.564 1.043
June 114 3 0.292 0.398 0.417 0.815
July 111 4 0.28 0.396 0.43 0.826
Aug 120 4 0.173 0.311 0.378 0.689
Sept 121 2 0.291 0.38 0.447 0.827

After that seminal first full season, Billy Grabarkewitz seemed destined for LAD greatness, but like many who came before, injuries would ruin his promising future.  Billy totaled 640 plate appearances in 1970, but could muster only 90 in 1971.  In the winter of  1973 he was traded along with half the team

and was never able to light the star that shined so bright in 1970.  By the age of 29 he was out of the major leagues having managed to amass only 1390 plate appearances after having 640 in 1970. I found this link that had this quote:

 “The injury-prone Grabarkewitz was in the minors when he said, ‘I was X-rayed so often I glow in the dark.’ “

Hardball times included the 1970 Grabarkewitz season as one of the all time fluke seasons, but I kind of disagree. 1970 was his first full season, and while he struggled in August he bounced back in Sept and did what he had done in June/July so I don’t think he was figured out.  To me a fluke season has to be preceded by some kind of baseline, and then have that baseline busted by the fluke season.  Gabby had no baseline entering 1970, and it was will established that he suffered numerous injuries after 1970. But I’m no math major, just an old Dodger fan.

On a personal note, Billy will always be one of my favorite Dodgers. The very first Dodger game I saw was on June 16th, 1970, and Billy homered to lead the Dodgers to a 1 – 0 victory over the Pirates. Just one of many 1 – 0 victories for Don Sutton.

Update with the final stats for Seager and Billy for 2016
With the 2016 season over, we can see that Seager ended up surpassing Billy on most counting stats, but the OPS+ came in 134 to 137 not too big a difference. Seager owned more power but with 95 walks Billy made it up in OBP.  Strangely Seager will get many MVP votes, Billy Grabarkewitz got zero.

Stats Grabarkewitz Seager
PA 640 687
Doubles 20 40
Triples 8 5
Home Runs 17 26
OPS+ 134 137
fWAR 6.1 7.5
Hits / Walks 153/95 193/54
BA 0.289 0.308
OBP 0.399 0.365
Slug% 0.454 0.512

Yazmani Grandal – King of the 3-run home run

♦ June 22, 2016 ♦ Leave a comment

Yazmani Grandal has only hit six home runs this year, but when he hits them, they count. Grandal now has three of the LAD nine three run home runs accounting for 33% of them.

Not a bad seasons work when you’re hitting less than .200 and generally considered to be having a poor offensive season. Which he is, but how about those runs batted in?

Grandal has driven in 26 runs with only 28 hits.

Adrian Gonzalez the man paid to drive in runs has driven in 32 runs with 69 hits.

Runs batted in may be an old farts counting stat, but any baseball fan could tell you. they would rather see a three run home run, than a ground ball to second.

 

Seven nights, four 3-run home runs, multiple victories, who knew?

♦ June 22, 2016 ♦ 1 Comment

Yasmani Grandal blasted a three run home run last night to propel the Dodgers to a 3 – 2 victory. 

On Saturday night Justin Turner launched a three run home run to help down the Brewers 10 -6

On Thursday night Trayce Thompson slugged a three run home in a losing cause 8 -6

Last Wednesday Scott Van Slyke crushed a three run home run to provide all the offense in a Dodger win 3 – 2. 

The LAD have hit four three run home runs in the past seven nights, while winning five games in a row.   The three run home run is generally considered a winning strategy, and the Dodgers to their credit are implementing the Earl Weaver strategy extremely well.

Below is the three run home chart for 2016

Player Date ▴ Opp Rslt HR RBI
Yasiel Puig 5/3/2016 TBR W 10-5 1 3
Yasmani Grandal 5/12/2016 NYM W 5-0 1 3
Corey Seager 5/31/2016 CHC W 5-0 1 3
Yasmani Grandal 6/5/2016 ATL W 12-6 1 3
Justin Turner 6/7/2016 COL W 4-3 1 3
Scott Van Slyke 6/15/2016 ARI W 3-2 1 3
Trayce Thompson 6/16/2016 MIL L 6-8 1 3
Justin Turner 6/18/2016 MIL W 10-6 1 3
Yasmani Grandal 6/21/2016 WSN W 3-2 1 3

The LAD are 8 – 1 when they unload the three-run home run. They hit zero in April, two in May, and now six in June, with four coming in the past seven games.

That’ll do

Josh Sborz, Andrew Sopko, and Kyle Garlick will represent Rancho Cucamonga in the Single-A California/Carolina League All-Star Game tonight

♦ June 21, 2016 ♦ Leave a comment

The LAD High A California League All-Star game is tonight.  The game features the all-stars of the California league versus the all-stars of the Carolina league. The LAD have three players representing them tonight.

  • Josh Sborz who was just named Single-A California League Pitcher of the Week for his work last week.  Sborz was the 74th overall pick in the 2015 First-Year Player Draft out of the University of Virginia.
  • Andrew Sopko  who has not walked more than two players in any of his last ten starts.
  • Kyle Garlick – Garlick was promoted to AA several weeks ago so he won’t be appearing in the game. Though given how much Garlick has struggled in AA, he may want to revisit his greener pastures.

One other minor league note:

Tulsa outfielder Andrew Toles was named the AA Texas League Player of the Week. Toles started the season in the California League but quickly proved to much of a match for the mostly younger competition. Toles initially set Tulsa on fire after his promotion but had struggled until June. Toles is on fire again, and putting himself on the prospect radar. He might actually help the LAD because of his speed if the LAD decide to use a speed man in September. Toles already has twenty two stolen bases this season split between two leagues.

LAD by the numbers

♦ June 21, 2016 ♦ Leave a comment

AJ Ellis has scored one run since May 1st, while reaching base sixteen times

Yazmani Grandal has scored four runs in June, five runs in May. By my math the LAD catchers have scored ten runs since May 1st. I don’t think that is good, even for slow catchers batting eighth.  Forty four games, ten runs.

Howie Kendrick has driven in three runs in June in fifty-five plate appearances, thirteen hits. One of those RBI came on his own home run.

SVS has had only four hits in June, two doubles, one home run, four runs batted in, twenty-two plate appearances.  Bullish slugging S%

Justin Turner has four home runs in his last six games, sporting a slug% of 1.048. Shawn Green nods in appreciation.  Turner has driven in 28% (9 out of 32) of his runs in the past six games. Turner has hit 40% (4 of 10) of his home runs in the past six games.

Joc Pederson has walked only once in the past 14 days, but has hit five home runs in that same time period.  Swing away Joc, swing away

Chase Utley has been sitting on 999 career runs scored since June 14th. He has had a single in each of the last three games. Given how many home runs that JT has hit, and how many doubles Seager has hit in the past three games, how has he not scored a run yet?

 

 

Future Dodger or trade chip Alec Verdugo with a highlight throw

♦ June 21, 2016 ♦ Leave a comment

Great throws send chills down my spine, and this throw by Alex Verdugo was no exception. 

I mean come on, the runner is on 2nd, the ball is hit to deep right center, Verdugo cuts in front of the right fielder going away from the ball, and still makes a perfect throw to 3rd. The second best part of the throw is the reaction by the baserunner who was just gunned out. He did everything right, gets thrown out, grins sheepishly, and knows he was just nailed. For good measure he nails a second runner at the plate the very next inning.

I’m not sure if Verdugo will even be a Dodger because he has such high trade value, but if he does I look forward to seeing that rocket arm.

I grew up in the Glendale Verdugo Woodlands, and spent many moments driving Verdugo Blvd. If Verdugo can make it to the Ravine, he’ll have his street already waiting for him.

If you think Adrian Gonzalez is struggling it is because he is

♦ June 20, 2016 ♦ Leave a comment

While doing the Washington National series research it struck me how bad Ryan Zimmerman is this season compared to his normal season.  I decided to use baseball reference to find out how all the National League 1st baseman are doing this year compared to their historical norm, as we approach July.

We all knew Adrian Gonzalez was struggling but even I was surprised just how much he’s struggling compared to his normal above average production.  Brandon Belt is leading the Giants to that huge 1st place lead, while Adrian is playing the dead weight anchor for the Dodgers.

Adrian is a full 30 points below his normal OPS+.  Adrian did get that career 133 OPS+ by posting some massive numbers with the Padres,  but even as a Dodger his three full season OPS+ are the following – 125/130/129. Even as Adrian is inconsistent (streaky) during the season, by the end of the year he’s remarkably consistent in his production.

For Adrian to get his OPS+ up to such lofty levels by the end of 2016 he will need to go on one of his patented hot streaks. The good news is that he hasn’t had one of those streaks yet this year, so knowing that one is coming has to be heartening.

The table below shows the 2016 OPS+, the career OPS+, the difference between the 2016 OPS+ and the career OPS+, and for good measure the 2016 fangraphs stat wRC+. Many prefer the wRC+ as it is linear weight based. 

Player Age AB 2016 OPS+ Career OPS+ Diff wRC+
Brandon Belt 28 226 160 130 30 164
Anthony Rizzo 26 235 157 128 29 155
Paul Goldschmidt 28 249 148 151 -3 149
Brandon Moss 32 170 136 111 25 137
Wil Myers 25 271 135 114 21 135
Freddie Freeman 26 258 133 129 4 127
Matt Adams 27 157 133 113 20 136
Justin Bour 28 184 121 118 3 114
Joey Votto 32 243 117 154 -37 114
Chris Carter 29 245 111 111 0 107
John Jaso 32 211 104 115 -11 109
Adrian Gonzalez 34 248 103 133 -30 102
Mark Reynolds 32 207 93 104 -11 93
Ryan Zimmerman 31 226 87 118 -31 88
Ryan Howard 36 166 45 124 -79 39

 

Things that stand out to me about this list:

  • Joey Votto was an incredible hitter
  • Chris Carter is Chris Carter
  • Ryan Howard should retire
  • At age 25, Will Myers might be breaking out
  • Paul Goldschmidt can longer be assumed to the best NL 1st baseman
  • Brandon Belt gets my NL All -Star vote
  • Adrian is the oldest first baseman on this list that shouldn’t be retired

For those who aren’t quite sure what OPS+ means, check out this link

NL East leading Washington Nationals come to town

♦ June 20, 2016 ♦ 2 Comments

Dusty Baker has his Nationals leading the NL East as they come into town for a three game set. The first game will be a marquee matchup with Clayton Kershaw squaring off against Steve Strasburg.

The Nationals under performed last year and made one big change adding 2015 postseason hero Daniel Murphy to the lineup. They also got back an injured Anthony Rendon. This is an interesting team, and the best hitter on the team is not who you would expect.

Let’s get to it:

C – Wilson Ramos is probably not a house hold baseball name, but maybe if the Nationals can get deeper into the postseason in 2016 he will become one. As it is, Ramos is the best hitting catcher in the National League, with a wRC+ of 151. Ramos leads all NL catchers with 11 home runs, and 38 runs batted in. He’s been a force in 2016.

1st Base – Ryan Zimmerman  has been very bad this year. The one time 3rd baseman has moved over to 1st base, but it has not helped his offense any. Not only is Zimmerman one of the worst offensive first baseman in the National League this year, he has been especially bad this June with a triple stat line of .174 / .216 / .326 .  For his career Zimmerman has an OPS+ of 118 but in 2016 it is a paltry 87.

2nd base – Daniel Murphy – the 2015 postseason  Babe Ruth, has moved his game over to the Nationals, and is now doing his best Charlie Gehringer imitation.  Murphy is leading the NL in hits (92), batting average (.358), and OPS (.995). He has slowed down in June, so just imagine what he was doing before June came.

ShortStop – for most of the year, National fans have asked for rookie Trea Turner to get the call at SS. That was because Danny Espinosa simply wasn’t hitting enough. I’m not sure what the fans are asking for now, but Danny Espinosa is banging. Espinosa on May 25th had an OPS of .581.  Eighty five plate appearances later his OPS is at .716 thanks to a stretch that has seen him hit nine home runs giving him twelve for the year.

3rd base – Anthony Rendon in 2014 was considered one of the best young infielders in the game finishing fifth in the MVP voting at just age 24. Two years later he’s still trying to regain that level after suffering through injuries in 2015. Rendon started out slow but has picked it up. On May 9th Rendon was hitting .211 with a .586 OPS. Since that time Rendon has hit in .289 / .372 / .500 in 148 plate appearances.

RF – 2015 MVP Bryce Harper started the 2016 as though he was going to win back to back MVP awards. At the end of April Harper had an OPS of 1.121. He seemed to be getting walked over and over. Not sure what happened but Harper followed that great April with very pedestrian months in May and June. Harper had a slug% of .714 with nine home runs in April. His slug% in both May and June are sub .400 with a total of five home runs.  He might get scary again, but right now, he’s not so scary.

CF – Ben Revere and Michael Taylor – Revere had won the everyday job only to lose it this past weekend. Dusty announced this morning that going forward Revere would only play against right hand pitching, and that Taylor would play against left hand pitching. This announcement came on the heels of Taylor blasting two home runs yesterday. Revere has struggled all year and could be considered the worst hitting CF in baseball with his triple stat line of .213 / .264 / .280. May not be long before he loses all his at bats. Taylor on the other hand is smoking hot with a 1.053 OPS in June.

LF – Jayson Werth still takes his injury ravaged body out to left field most of the time. Werth struggled in April and May, but has found his stroke in June, and now has his OPS up to .747 on the heels of his .915 OPS in June

In a nutshell the hot Nationals are Ramos / Espinosa / Rendon / Werth / Taylor. The cold Nationals are Zimmerman / Revere

Murphy has been the best hitter in the NL but is slowing down. Harper was the best hitter in the NL in April but has become ordinary since then.

Going to be a tough series.

 

Brock Stewart fans 10 in AAA start

♦ June 20, 2016 ♦ Leave a comment

The fast rising Brock Stewart continues to dominant as he moves up the Dodger minor league chain.  Stewart started the year in High A ball, was promoted quickly to AA, and has now made two starts in AAA. His first start was a success but today’s start was dominant with zero walks, and ten strikeouts. The ten strikeouts were a high water mark for Stewart in his professional career.

What stands out about Brock is his strike out to walk ratio. Brock has made thirteen starts and has not walked more than two in any of them. In five of them he has zero walks. In three of them he has one walk. For a guy averaging nineteen outs per start, that is some amazing control.

Brock was barely on the prospect radar headed into 2016. David Hood who does extensive work on Dodger prospects had Brock ranked 36th headed into this season.  Have to think no one has jumped higher, faster up that ranking than Brock.