Dodgers hitters blast off in March

With at least ten plate appearances, eleven players have an OPS+ > 300 as we enter April and three of them are Los Angeles Dodgers. 2018 MVP Christian Yelich continues to destroy the NL,  but right behind him is Austin Barnes and Joc Pederson. Two guys the Dodgers tried to replace this winter with Realmuto and Harper.

Cody Bellinger is currently tied with Yelich for the NL home run and RBI lead with four and eight respectively.  In a normal week, Joc or Bellinger would be vying for NL Player of the Week, but Yelich had an even better week so I expect the reigning MVP to get the nod.

Player             OPS+ PA  Tm HR RBI BB   BA  OBP   SLG   OPS  Pos
Christian Yelich    445 18 MIL  4   8  6 .500 .667 1.583 2.250  /*9
Austin Barnes       418 10 LAD  2   3  2 .625 .700 1.375 2.075 /*2H
Joc Pederson        339 21 LAD  3   5  4 .467 .619 1.133 1.752 /*7H
Tim Beckham         327 27 SEA  3   6  4 .435 .519  .913 1.432  /*6
Asdrubal Cabrera    323 13 TEX  2   5  1 .455 .462 1.091 1.552  /*5
Kolten Wong         322 15 STL  2   4  1 .571 .600 1.071 1.671  /*4
Maikel Franco       317 12 PHI  2   7  3 .444 .583 1.111 1.694  /*5
Rhys Hoskins        316 12 PHI  1   5  5 .333 .667 1.000 1.667  /*3
Bryce Harper        303 13 PHI  2   2  4 .333 .538 1.111 1.650  /*9
Cody Bellinger      303 21 LAD  4   8  1 .500 .524 1.100 1.624 /*93
Jose Abreu          301 13 CHW  2   4  2 .364 .462  .909 1.371 /*3D

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/1/2019.

Early season numbers are always fun, but you can’t deny the approach by Joc has simply been outstanding.

Eight Dong Day

The Dodger Twitter-verse has decided that Dodger home runs are now Dodger Dongs and who am I to argue with that? To celebrate the Dodgers decided to go where no dong has ever gone by blasting eight dongs in one game.

They hit him em to left field, they hit em to center-field, they hit em to right field, they hit em long, they hit em longer. The greatest dongfest to ever grace Dodger Stadium and they did it in on opening day against one of their best old friends.

You don’t answer questions about a season in one game but coming into the season the Dodgers had plenty of questions.

Talk about acing a test.

Can Joc Pederson hold off Alex Verdugo for the Left Field job and continue to build upon his solid 2018 season?

Joc led off the game with a ball off the fence in LF. He would later hit a home run to center-field, and another to right field. He came very close to the coveted Home Run Cycle where you hit a home run to every part of the ballpark.

Will Corey Seager be the player who entered 2018 as one of the best young players in baseball?

Corey walked, struck out, slugged a deep home run, and followed that with a deep out. Nice first game in almost a year.

Was Max Muncy a fluke?

Max drove in the first run of 2019 with a ground ball to right scoring Joc.  Max followed that with a strikeout and weak popup.  In his fourth at-bat, he crushed his first home run of 2019 to deep right field.

Can Kike Hernandez be the everyday starting 2nd baseman? Can he handle right-hand pitching well enough?

Hmmm, ground out, two-run home run, walk, solo home run. Both home runs came against right-hand pitching.

Will Austin Barnes bounce back from a horrible 2018 season and be more like the Barnes of 2017?

Everyone had an answer today, but Austin Barnes might have had the most emphatic answer. Single up the middle, home run to deep left-center field, pop up, and another single to center field.

Ryu was replacing Clayton Kershaw as the opening day starter and had big shoes to fill. Could the big lefty handle the assignment?

Ryu was as good yesterday as he had been all last year when he had the second-best ERA in the NL for starters with at least ten games started. Ryu cruised through five, gave up a home run in the sixth and finished the game with six innings, one earned run, no walks, and eight strikeouts. Ryu didn’t walk anyone all spring but went to a three-ball count on his first hitter before striking out Adam Jones. Ryu would have only one more three-ball count the rest of the game.

 

2019 Preview of Dodger Rotation Pieces

The Dodgers will start the year with two of their five starting pitchers on the injured list. One of those on the injured list is a three-time Cy Young Award winner and seven-time all-star. The other is Rich Hill, and for most teams that would mean using journeyman pitchers or prospects too soon, for the Dodgers it just means they will plug in a 2018 All-Star and one of the best young pitchers in baseball.

Just in case you missed this from my Spring Training post on the pitchers:

The rotation pieces Ryu/Stripling/Kenta Maeda/Julio Urias ended the spring with eight walks and fifty-five strikeouts. If you want to add Rich Hill that reads eight walks and sixty-six strikeouts.

Last year the Dodgers had six starters throw between 120 and 165 innings. This year I expect they will have seven that throw between 100 and 150 innings. I didn’t do the math to back this statement up.

Let’s do this by the Dodger rotation to start the year:

Starter OneHyun-Jin Ryu gets the opening day start with Clayton Kershaw unable to make it.   This was the first spring in years that Ryu came in without any question marks and he pitched fantastic.  I thought it was a done deal that Ryu would be gone as a free agent but he accepted the Dodgers qualifying offer and is back for at least one more season. In 2018 Ryu posted a sub 2.00 ERA and was lights out when he was able to take the mound. Ryu joined the Dodgers in 2013 but has only pitched over 150 innings twice in those six years.  I expect he will do it for the third time in 2019 and receive another qualifying offer at the end of the season.

Starter Two – 2018 All-Star Ross Stripling will get the ball for game two. Ross is really the sixth starter for the Dodgers but until Kershaw/Hill are back he’s in the rotation. Ross was brilliant last year when he stepped into the rotation on April 30th, and continued that brilliance all the way through the All-Star game break. He only had one good start after the break and due to injuries and the return of injured pitchers didn’t make another start after August 9th. Ross has his supporters, the most vocal being Paul Sporer of Fangraphs. As a starting pitcher, he walked only sixteen hitters against 117 strikeouts making his SO/BB rate the best on the team and just about the best in baseball.

You can see how that ranks with some of the best pitchers in baseball last year. As you can see the big issue with Ross is that when they make contact they make good contact as he has the second highest OPS+ against on the list. He needs to limit his walks and he did so when he started.

Player              SO    IP SO/W  ERA  FIP    K%  BB% ERA+ OPS+
Justin Verlander   290 214.0 7.84 2.52 2.78 34.8% 4.4%  159   65
Robbie Erlin        88 109.0 7.33 4.21 3.31 20.1% 2.7%   91   96
Chris Sale         237 158.0 6.97 2.11 1.98 38.4% 5.5%  207   43
Corey Kluber       222 215.0 6.53 2.89 3.12 26.4% 4.0%  151   66
Ross Stripling     136 122.0 6.18 3.02 3.42 27.0% 4.4%  128  100
Max Scherzer       300 220.2 5.88 2.53 2.65 34.6% 5.9%  168   56
Jacob deGrom       269 217.0 5.85 1.70 1.99 32.2% 5.5%  216   52
Carlos Carrasco    231 192.0 5.37 3.38 2.94 29.5% 5.5%  129   79
Clayton Kershaw    155 161.1 5.34 2.73 3.19 23.9% 4.5%  142   74
Patrick Corbin     246 200.0 5.13 3.15 2.47 30.8% 6.0%  137   63
Shane Bieber       118 114.2 5.13 4.55 3.23 24.3% 4.7%   96  109
Nathan Eovaldi     101 111.0 5.05 3.81 3.60 22.2% 4.4%  112   85
Miles Mikolas      146 200.2 5.03 2.83 3.28 18.1% 3.6%  137   75

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/27/2019.

Ross may never make another All-Star but for most teams, he’d be a big part of their rotation, for the Dodgers he’s simply insurance.

Starter Three – Kenta Maeda has seen his innings drop from 175 to 134 to 125 during his three seasons as a Dodger. He hasn’t made a postseason start since 2016 which tells you where he falls in the Dodger rotation pecking order. His stats say that when he starts he’s been very good. Kenta isn’t exciting but he’s better than most starters while being a good bet to not be part of the rotation when the season ends.

Starter Four – Walker Buehler was the bulldog in the postseason that the Dodgers had been seeking winning key game five in the NLCS and starting the only game the Dodgers won in the World Series. Walker didn’t make his first start in 2018 until April 23rd and was never allowed to throw over 100 pitches for his first eleven starts. On his twelve start, he threw 105 pitches and lost 1 – 0 to the Brewers. The gloves were off and he would throw over 100 pitches five times in his last eleven starts of the regular season.  His ERA was 3.92 on July 25th after his eleventh start. He would drop his ERA to 2.62 and put the league on notice that the Dodgers had another ace in the making.

His rookie season earned 3.4 bWAR which was good for 8th among Dodger rookie pitchers but he did that with only 137 innings pitched.

Player                          WAR    IP ERA+ Year Age GS  ERA    K%   BB% OPS+
Fernando Valenzuela (RoY-1st)   4.8 192.1  135 1981  20 25 2.48 23.8%  8.1%   62
Hideo Nomo (RoY-1st)            4.7 191.1  149 1995  26 28 2.54 30.3% 10.0%   56
Orel Hershiser (RoY-3rd)        4.3 189.2  133 1984  25 20 2.66 19.5%  6.5%   69
Ismael Valdez (RoY-7th)         3.7 197.2  124 1995  21 27 3.05 18.7%  6.3%   74
Rick Sutcliffe (RoY-1st)        3.5 242.0  105 1979  23 30 3.46 11.5%  9.6%   83
Bill Singer                     3.5 204.1  117 1967  23 29 2.64 19.8%  7.1%   84
Don Sutton                      3.5 225.2  110 1966  21 35 2.99 22.8%  5.7%   79
Walker Buehler (RoY-3rd)        3.4 137.1  148 2018  23 23 2.62 27.9%  6.8%   56
Hyun-Jin Ryu (RoY-4th)          3.4 192.0  119 2013  26 30 3.00 19.7%  6.3%   90
Bob Welch                       3.4 111.1  174 1978  21 13 2.02 15.0%  5.9%   71
Pedro Martinez (RoY-9th)        3.0 107.0  146 1993  21  2 2.61 26.8% 12.8%   70

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/27/2019.

Walker Buehler could be the new ace of the Dodgers. I can tell you right now if I had to name someone to start a game for the Dodgers his name would be Walker Buehler not Clayton Kershaw. This may not age well.

Starter Five – Julio Urias has just about arrived. It took longer than expected, the surgery detour putting a damper on the excitement we felt when he made his first start at the age of nineteen. They say he’s not ready for a full workload yet, but just like Walker Buehler in 2018, I expect Julio Urias to be pitching meaningful games in September and being a boss about it when he does. Julio Urias is the guy who I expect to open the most eyes this year and by the end of 2019, it will be open to debate as to who is the best young pitcher on the Dodgers, Julio or Walker.

Starter Six – Rich Hill should make it back sooner than Clayton Kershaw so he gets listed sixth. Rich is fun to watch and for the most part very good. He’s become a bit of a twitter hero as Dick Mountain and unlike Brandon McCarthy/Scott Kazmir proved to be an excellent free agent signing. This should be the last season Rich Hill is a Dodger, I hope he makes it a special one. Rich is 39 and has had two of the best five seasons by a Dodger starter aged 37 and up. That is cool and all but I’d kind of prefer Julio Urias in 2019 and I think the Dodgers will eventually feel the same way.

Player          WAR    IP ERA+ Year Age OPS+
Kevin Brown     4.5 211.0  169 2003  38   67
Rich Hill       2.2 135.2  125 2017  37   74
Tom Candiotti   2.0 135.0  108 1997  39  103
Rich Hill       1.5 132.2  106 2018  38   91
Tom Candiotti   1.3 190.1  108 1995  37   96

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/27/2019.

Starter Seven: Just your run of the mill three-time Cy Young Award winner.  Clayton has a lot to prove in 2019 and it got off to an auspicious start when he had to shut himself down very early in spring training. As Dodger nation held their collective breath, he was able to get in mound work without any pain (so he says) and is now on a normal path that should see him get back in the rotation sometime in April.  I can’t doubt Clayton Kershaw until he gives me a reason to doubt him. Noted MLB writer Mike Petriello doesn’t think Clayton is in the conversation anymore as a top pitcher and he might be right. I wouldn’t bet on him being right, I’d bet on Clayton. I won’t post any Clayton stats, he owns all of the second decade of the 21st century, and most of the 21st century as well. He may not be the “greatest” pitcher but he is certainly the greatest lefty of the 21st century so far, and one of the greatest of all time.

2019 Preview of the Dodger Hitters

I’ll be referring many times to the Zips projections for this column.

Catcher – Austin Barnes and Russell Martin. For the first time in a long time, the Dodgers lost a key position player to free agency when they let Yazmani Grandal walk to the Brewers. Austin Barnes had a horrible season in 2018 but many pundits expect him to bounce back in a big way in 2019. This is a sample from Paul Sporer of Fangraphs.

He had a brutal 2018 after big expectations following his 2017, but the 28% K rate doesn’t make sense with a 6% swinging strike rate. He still took his walks and also has some sneaky speed for the position with 4 SBs each of the last two years. He’s going to be the full-time option with Russell Martin backing him up and I like him to hit .275 with 12 HR, 8 SB, and 50+ R and RBI.

For the past four years, this has been a position of strength, it probably won’t be in 2019, but it shouldn’t be a position of weakness either. I expect the Dodger get average production from their catching duo.

1st Base – Max Muncy is out to prove that 2018 was not one of the flukiest seasons in baseball history.  He doesn’t have much room for error because the Dodgers have four outfielders for three spots and one of them is an outstanding defensive 1st baseman.  Max had a power-free spring which is not what you want from your 1st baseman.  I don’t know how long the leash will be for Max and I honestly have no idea what to expect from him. Another season like 2019 would be fantastic, a drop of 100 points in his OPS toward .850 would still be a successful season. Zips thinks he can do it pegging him for .836. I’m not so sure.

2nd Base – Kiké Hernandez won the starting gig. Giving full-time attention to 2nd base should make him an even better defender so expect to see more high light plays.  Since being acquired by the Dodgers Kiké has seen his plate appearances get higher and higher (218, 244, 342, 462). He might top 500 plate appearances for the first time in 2019.  The Athletic did a pool of players and they found that Kiké was considered one of the funniest teammates.

6. Who is the funniest teammate you’ve ever had?

Top result: (Tie) Kiké Hernández, Dodgers; Gerardo Parra, Giants; Derek Holland, Giants; Stephen Vogt, Giants (3.1% each)

Zips thinks that Hernadez will put up an OPS of .771. If he does that as a starting second baseman,  Dodger fans will be happy.  Remember, last year at this time Logan Forsythe was the Dodger starting second baseman with Chase Utley expected to spell him against right-hand pitching. Forsythe is now a utility player for the Texas Rangers and barely holding onto a major league job. Chase retired. By letting Brad Miller go, the only left-handed option the Dodgers have for 2nd base is Max Muncy. They used that in the postseason last year. I’m not sure how much they will use that option in 2019.

ShortStop – I’ll admit to being concerned about the health of Corey Seager heading into this spring. Especially when it took him so long to finally play a major league spring game. His defense in the few games we saw was spotty but he’s healthy and that might be the best thing the Dodgers have going for them this year. It will not shock me if Corey Seager has a top-five MVP season. That may seem obvious but Vegas put the MVP odds on Corey at 40 – 1 heading into this spring. Zips agrees with Vegas giving him a pedestrian OPS of .805. I think he crushes that.

3rd Base – Justin Turner is the best Dodger 3rd baseman in history. He just is.

Player             WAR/pos OPS+   PA   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
Justin Turner         23.3  141 2352 .305 .383 .505 .889
Ron Cey               47.7  125 6108 .264 .359 .445 .804
George Pinkney        20.4  111 4203 .271 .353 .352 .706
Red Smith              9.0  111 1667 .279 .344 .399 .743
Adrian Beltre         23.4  108 3818 .274 .332 .463 .794
Casey Blake            9.2  108 1608 .260 .338 .431 .768
Cookie Lavagetto      12.1  105 3242 .275 .372 .384 .756
Joe Stripp             9.4   97 2800 .295 .335 .384 .719
Tim Wallach            1.5   95 1525 .251 .312 .409 .721
Juan Uribe             7.5   93 1391 .260 .306 .381 .687

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/27/2019.

Center Field – A.J. Pollock was acquired to be the Dodger Center Fielder for the next few years. He might be playing CF but he’s basically replacing Yasiel Puig in the outfield with Bellinger moving over to right field. Whatever Pollock does will be compared to what Puig does in Cincinnati. When healthy he can be good, sometimes great, and for a month at a time can be brilliant. Overall though, he’s a very average offensive player whose career OPS+ is propped up by his great seasons way back in 2014 and 2015.  If he simply does what he did in 2017/2018 Dodger fans won’t be very excited, if he can somehow bring back the offense he displayed in 2014 and 2015 the Dodgers will have made a great acquisition.  He’s a good defensive center fielder but Puig was a good right fielder. Is the Dodger outfield better with Pollock/Bellinger than with Bellinger/Puig? Maybe, but you won’t be very vested in the throws to get baserunners as you were before because that arm is now in Cincinnati. Oh, and Zips is predicting a sub .800 OPS which would be his worst OPS in any full season since 2014. Probably because he’s going to be 31.

Right Field – The 2017 ROY is now a right fielder. As a first baseman, Cody Bellinger was unique in his athletic ability. As a right fielder, he’s simply another RF. Like many other right fielders, he has a good arm, good speed, and can hit home runs. For Cody to stand out he will need to hit more like his 2017 ROY (.933 OPS) season than his sophomore season (.814 OPS).  Cody is the 15th player in major league history to have hit at least 60 home runs by the age of 22.

Player               HR From   To   Age   PA
Mel Ott             115 1926 1931 17-22 2644
Eddie Mathews       112 1952 1954 20-22 1874
Frank Robinson       98 1956 1958 20-22 1967
Bryce Harper         97 2012 2015 19-22 2143
Giancarlo Stanton    93 2010 2012 20-22 1498
Bob Horner           91 1978 1980 20-22 1369
Johnny Bench         87 1967 1970 19-22 1963
Andruw Jones         80 1996 1999 19-22 1890
Miguel Cabrera       78 2003 2005 20-22 1716
Orlando Cepeda       76 1958 1960 20-22 1906
Albert Pujols        71 2001 2002 21-22 1351
Hank Aaron           66 1954 1956 20-22 1834

Cody Bellinger       64 2017 2018 21-22 1180
Cesar Cedeno         64 1970 1973 19-22 2227
Justin Upton         60 2007 2010 19-22 1728

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/27/2019.

Cody also has the most home runs by any Dodger by the age of 22.

Player           HR From   To   Age   PA   AB
Cody Bellinger   64 2017 2018 21-22 1180 1037
Adrian Beltre    55 1998 2001 19-22 1918 1718
Willie Davis     35 1960 1962 20-22 1140 1027
Corey Seager     30 2015 2016 21-22  800  725

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/27/2019.

The Dodger season doesn’t depend on Cody Bellinger being great, but it sure would be fun if he was. Zips thinks he will be the Dodgers best hitter in 2019. I think they are right.

Left Field – Joc Pederson is the starting LF against right-hand pitching and Chris Taylor will be the starting left fielder against left-hand pitching.  For now, Joc has held off Alex Verdugo for his part of the timeshare. No one might have a shorter leash than Joc simply because a viable replacement is on the bench.  Joc made great strides last year and bounced back from his horrid 2017 season to have his best season.  The OPS+ mark of 125 was almost exactly the same as 2016 but in 2016 Joc struck out 130 times in 476 plate appearances which translated to a 27% strike out rate. In 2018 Joc dropped that rate to 19% while putting up the same level of offensive production.  I expect more of the same from Joc in 2019. Chris Taylor is probably being wasted as a platoon left fielder. On many teams, he could start at 2nd/SS/LF/Cf but for the Dodgers, he is their insurance policy and platoon mate for LF.  He doesn’t have significant splits and over that past two years has been a better offensive player than Pollock.

Bench:

David Freeze – the Dodgers best hitter in Sept was David Freeze. Don’t expect that again, but he should be a valuable bench option as a someone to play 1st again tough lefties, and pinch hit.

Alex Verdugo – not sure how he gets in a game other than as a pinch hitter. No one needs a defensive replacement and he’s not exactly a burner on the base paths. He’s waiting for his chance, I’m not sure if Joc is going to give it to him, his best option might be an injury.

 

2019 Dodger Spring Training Stats – The Pitchers

The 2019 spring training games are over so for fun, let’s take a look at the spring training stats for pitchers.

The tables below were provided by the data from Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/27/2019.

The two pitchers replacing Kershaw and Hill pitched the most innings. If Ross and Julio can replicate their spring success it will be interesting how Dave Roberts handles the rotation.

The rotation pieces Ryu/Stripling/Kenta Maeda/Julio Urias ended the spring with eight walks and fifty-five strikeouts. If you want to add Rich Hill that reads eight walks and sixty-six strikeouts.

The outstanding spring for a prospect has to belong to Tony Gonsolin who was unscored upon in his nine innings. Right behind him was Dustin May.  Not sure where Dennis Santana is anymore in the pecking order but he might have fallen behind those two. Given how much we saw of May and Gonsolin and how impressive they are, the Dodgers might have to huddle to decide who would get a start between the three of them if they need one during this summer.

Speaking of Dennis Santana, he led the spring pitchers with a 14.5 K/9 albeit it in only seven innings.  Dennis is still an outstanding prospect and just being healthy this spring was a big step toward him pitching at the major league level in 2019.

Yimi Garcia may have been the pitcher who pitched himself onto the roster with his impressive spring.

Pedro Baez continues to look good.

Best hair was between Stetson Allie and Dustin May.  Stetson showed off his big fastball but doesn’t appear to have the command to be a major league pitcher.

 

Name Age ERA IP BB SO WHIP
Stripling, Ross 29 2.76 16.1 4 11 1.224
Urias, Julio* 22 1.72 15.2 3 15 0.511
Ryu, Hyun-Jin* 32 3 15 0 12 0.933
Maeda, Kenta 31 4.15 13 1 17 0.769
May, Dustin 21 1.46 12.1 4 9 1.216
Hill, Rich* 39 3.27 11 0 11 1.182
Quackenbush, Kevin 30 4.5 10 2 5 1.5
Allie, Stetson 28 3.72 9.2 7 14 1.034
Garcia, Yimi 28 0.93 9.2 2 12 1.034
Gonsolin, Tony 25 0 9 2 6 0.889
Ferguson, Caleb* 22 9.35 8.2 3 12 1.846
Santana, Dennis 23 8.31 8.2 6 14 1.5
Curry, Parker 25 7.56 8.1 2 8 1.68
Floro, Dylan 28 6.48 8.1 3 5 2.16
Schultz, Jaime 28 4.7 7.2 4 5 1.043
Alexander, Scott* 29 1.23 7.1 1 6 0.545
Baez, Pedro 31 2.45 7.1 3 11 1.227
Kelly, Joe 31 1.29 7 3 6 1.143
Chargois, JT 28 5.4 6.2 2 6 0.9
Vasquez, Luis 33 4.05 6.2 5 9 1.2
Jansen, Kenley 31 2.84 6.1 1 7 1.105
Stewart, Brock 27 2.84 6.1 5 4 2.053
Moseley, Ryan 24 1.59 5.2 2 5 0.529
Cabrera, Yordy 28 6.75 5.1 4 8 1.5
Somsen, Layne 30 1.69 5.1 0 7 0.563

============================================================================

Name Age H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W
Stripling, Ross 29 8.8 0 2.2 6.1 2.75
Urias, Julio* 22 2.9 1.1 1.7 8.6 5
Ryu, Hyun-Jin* 32 8.4 0.6 0 7.2
Maeda, Kenta 31 6.2 1.4 0.7 11.8 17
May, Dustin 21 8 0 2.9 6.6 2.25
Hill, Rich* 39 10.6 0 0 9
Quackenbush, Kevin 30 11.7 0 1.8 4.5 2.5
Allie, Stetson 28 2.8 0 6.5 13 2
Garcia, Yimi 28 7.4 0 1.9 11.2 6
Gonsolin, Tony 25 6 0 2 6 3
Ferguson, Caleb* 22 13.5 2.1 3.1 12.5 4
Santana, Dennis 23 7.3 3.1 6.2 14.5 2.33
Curry, Parker 25 13 1.1 2.2 8.6 4
Floro, Dylan 28 16.2 2.2 3.2 5.4 1.67
Schultz, Jaime 28 4.7 0 4.7 5.9 1.25
Alexander, Scott* 29 3.7 1.2 1.2 7.4 6
Baez, Pedro 31 7.4 2.5 3.7 13.5 3.67
Kelly, Joe 31 6.4 0 3.9 7.7 2
Chargois, JT 28 5.4 2.7 2.7 8.1 3
Vasquez, Luis 33 4.1 0 6.8 12.2 1.8
Jansen, Kenley 31 8.5 0 1.4 9.9 7
Stewart, Brock 27 11.4 2.8 7.1 5.7 0.8
Moseley, Ryan 24 1.6 0 3.2 7.9 2.5
Cabrera, Yordy 28 6.8 1.7 6.8 13.5 2
Somsen, Layne 30 5.1 0 0 11.8

2019 Dodger Spring Training Stats – The Hitters

The 2019 spring training games are over so for fun, let’s take a look at the spring training stats.

Dodgers did just about zero running this spring.  No one stole more than one base and when you look at the lineup you don’t see anyone who should have a green light unless it is Pollock. Pollock has stolen as many as 39 bases but only 13 last year and given his propensity for sliding face first into home and breaking things, maybe not having him steal bases is a good idea.

Max Muncy lead the team with six doubles but with zero home runs ended the spring with a less than inspiring slug% of .321.

Cody Bellinger lead the team in home runs with four, with Pollock/Hernandez/Joc/Turner each hitting three.

The three players with the most plate appearances also had the most runs batted in. Go figure.

Justin Turner was the only 25-man roster player to have an OPS above 1.000.

Both Austin Barnes and Russell Martin had good springs. I’ve noticed Austin Barnes name showing up on a quite a few “Bold Prediction” lists by Fangraph writers. In a good way.

The only prospects who had an impactful spring were probably Omar Estevez and Kyle Garlick.

If Pollock hits during the season as he did this spring he’ll be an All-Star.

Hitters had to have had at least 15 PA to show up.

Rk               Name Age PA 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS TB GDP
1      BellingerCody*  23 62  4  0  4  16  1  7 16 .226 .306 .528  .835 28   1
2        BarnesAustin  29 53  3  0  2  12  1  8 10 .289 .396 .489  .885 22   1
3    HernandezEnrique  27 64  3  0  3  11  0  5  9 .263 .328 .474  .802 27   1
4        TurnerJustin  34 58  6  0  3  10  0  8 10 .457 .552 .783 1.334 36   1
5         TaylorChris  28 64  5  0  2   9  1  7 20 .211 .297 .404  .700 23   0
6        PedersonJoc*  27 57  5  0  3   8  1  6 17 .180 .263 .460  .723 23   1
7        VerdugoAlex*  23 57  6  0  0   7  0  4  9 .250 .298 .365  .664 19   0
8         PollockA.J.  31 65  4  0  3   7  1  9 15 .286 .385 .518  .902 29   0
9       MartinRussell  36 35  2  0  2   7  0  4  8 .226 .314 .484  .798 15   1
10       OrlandoPaulo  33 42  2  0  1   6  0  4  8 .216 .286 .351  .637 13   1
11          MuncyMax*  28 60  6  0  0   5  0  5 20 .208 .300 .321  .621 17   1
12       CastroDaniel  26 34  3  0  0   5  1  1  4 .333 .353 .424  .777 14   3
13         TholeJosh*  32 27  0  0  0   4  0  5  5 .381 .481 .381  .862  8   0
14        EstevezOmar  21 28  2  0  2   4  0  1  8 .296 .321 .593  .914 16   0
15   CarreraEzequiel*  32 49  2  0  0   4  1  4  8 .178 .245 .222  .467 10   0
16         BeatyMatt*  26 30  1  0  1   4  0  3  6 .269 .333 .423  .756 11   1
17           PetersDJ  23 24  0  1  2   3  0  0  6 .174 .167 .522  .688 12   0
18          GaleRocky  31 11  0  1  0   3  0  1  1 .222 .273 .444  .717  4   1
19         AscheCody*  29 20  0  0  1   3  0  3  8 .063 .200 .250  .450  4   0
20          SmithWill  24 24  0  0  0   2  0  2  5 .143 .208 .143  .351  3   1
21       SeagerCorey*  25 17  0  0  1   2  0  5  3 .182 .412 .455  .866  5   0
22       RuizKeibert#  20 18  0  0  0   2  0  1  1 .188 .278 .188  .465  3   1
23      RobinsonErrol  24 13  1  1  0   2  0  1  6 .250 .308 .500  .808  6   0
24         RiosEdwin*  25 43  3  0  1   2  0  2 17 .205 .279 .359  .638 14   0
25          LuxGavin*  21 21  1  1  0   2  1  1  3 .150 .190 .300  .490  6   1
26        GarlickKyle  27 18  2  1  0   2  0  3  7 .267 .389 .533  .922  8   1
27        FreeseDavid  36 39  4  0  0   2  0  4  9 .286 .359 .400  .759 14   0
28         DownsJeter  20 10  1  0  0   2  0  1  1 .333 .400 .444  .844  4   0
29        WallachChad  27 29  0  0  1   2  0  3  7 .192 .276 .308  .584  8   0
30    SantanaCristian  22 19  1  0  0   1  0  1  8 .111 .158 .167  .325  3   0
31     PerkinsCameron  28 26  1  0  0   1  0  1  8 .280 .308 .320  .628  8   0
32      KendallJeren*  23 11  1  0  1   1  0  2  4 .222 .364 .667 1.030  6   0
33         PeterJake*  26 22  1  0  0   0  1  5  4 .118 .318 .176  .495  3   0

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/27/2019.

Opening Day is just a day away

The Dodgers had about as boring a spring as you can have and with the season opener just a day away everything is basically what Ken Gurnick expected back in Feb with a few minor exceptions.

Ken felt that Chris Taylor was going to be the Dodgers starting second baseman. I didn’t agree but felt he had better info. Turns out he did not.

I’ll defer to the beat writer who should have some inside information on who the Dodgers are leaning toward but it would not surprise me in the least if Hernandez wins the 2nd base gig and Taylor is the super utility guy.

That could easily change but for now, Kiké is the starting second baseman which leaves Chris Taylor to patrol left field against left-hand pitching, and possibly spell everyone except the catcher and 1st baseman.

It took Corey Seager a while to get in playing shape but he does appear ready to handle a full season load at Shortstop. None of the position players were injured so the Dodgers enter the season with a full squad of position players. Andrew Toles took himself out of the running for a bench spot when he was unable to appear this spring due to personal issues that we hope he is able to successfully navigate.

The only real battle besides second base was between Brad Miller and Alex Verdugo for the last spot on the bench. I felt Brad Miller would be more useful but the Dodgers opted for Alex Verdugo.

The pitching side had a few hiccups and one big painful cough when Clayton Kershaw had to be shut down, but he is back on the mound and should rejoin the team sometime in April. It is a shame that Clayton will not start the opener since he has been the opening day starter every year since 2011 but all things eventually come to an end. The good news is that Clayton appears to be pitching pain-free and just needs to get stretched out.  This might have been more of a big deal if the expectations for Clayton in 2019 hadn’t been more muted than in seasons past when he was simply expected to pick up his CYA at the end of the year.

The other hiccups belonged to Walker Buehler and Rich Hill. Walker took his time in getting ready this spring but is now ready for the season to start. Rich Hill was in line to make the opening day start but got hurt last week and will join Clayton Kershaw on the injured list to start the season.

Replacing Kershaw and Hill will be Julio Urias and Ross Stripling.  Julio Urias reminded everyone why he was a teenage phenom before his surgery by having a fantastic spring.  It has only been nine months but I think many Dodger fans have already forgotten that Ross Stripling was an All-Star last summer after being their best pitcher in April/May/June. Ross still has a big fan in Paul Sporer from Fangraphs who made him part of his bold predictions for 2019.

Ross Stripling is a top 15 SP

Stripling only threw 122 innings last year, but the 29-year old isn’t incapable of handling a full season workload. A 1.5x increase of last year’s total would yield 183 innings, which is more than enough to put up a top 15 season with a strong enough performance. In fact, these days you can go 150-160 great innings and still land in the top 15. An incredible first half (2.08 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 24% K-BB in 95.3 IP) earned Stripling an All-Star bid, but back and toe issues mired a poor second half that limited him to just 26.7 uninspiring innings (6.41 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 17% K-BB). He’s already in the rotation with some spring injuries hitting the Dodgers rotation and if he performs, there’s no reason he won’t stick.

Suffice to say no team in baseball could replace two pitchers in their rotation with the upside of Urias and Stripling.

The biggest surprise to me this spring was the outright release of Josh Fields who had been a solid part of the bullpen since being acquired for top 100 prospect Yordan Alvarez back in the summer of 2016.  It must be a good sign for the bullpen that the Dodgers felt that they had better arms than Fields.

 

Oh look, an actual roster battle is happening

As usual, the final position spot on the Dodgers 25 man roster has created a bit of controversy.  In the end, none of it will probably matter but as fans debate whether they would rather have top outfield prospect, Alex Verdugo make the team or journeyman infielder Brad Miller, keep in mind that last April Max Muncy didn’t make the team out of spring training. Neither did Walker Buehler.  Logan Forsythe was the starting 2nd baseman. Corey Seager was the starting shortstop even with a bad wing.  Wilmer Font was the surprise pick on the 25 man roster.

As roster building goes, with the current Dodger roster, it would seem to make more sense in carrying the left hand hitting infielder Brad Miller over the left-handed hitting outfielder Alex Verdugo for these reasons:

  • Corey Seager has yet to even play in a major league spring training game. They say he will be ready when the season starts, but to expect Seager to be a nine-inning shortstop from the get-go seems a tad unrealistic. Which means that he’ll need a caddy, and that means one of the two current 2nd basemen, will need to play shortstop.
  • The Dodgers have two right-handed hitting second baseman, one of which will be the starter, and the other will be playing left field against right-hand pitching.
  • You don’t lose Alex Verdugo if you choose the Brad Miller insurance policy, but you do lose the Brad Miller insurance policy if you choose Alex Verdugo.
  • Alex Verdugo was not able to beat out Joc Pederson for the starting gig in left field against right-hand pitchers.   He may not have anything to prove by starting every day in AAA, but what value does he give the team on the bench?  He won’t be needed as a defensive replacement since Cody/A.J./Joc won’t need defensive help. His speed is mediocre so he doesn’t add a speed dimension.
  • Also, who can’t help but wonder if Brad Miller could be the next in the line after Justin Turner, Chris Taylor and Max Muncy turned around their middling careers after joining the Dodgers?  Heck, Taylor and Miller were once doing a job sharing of the shortstop gig for the Mariners.

Anyway, Jon Weisman asked his followers what they thought. Enjoy the thread.

The argument for Alex Verdugo is that his contact bat may play better off the bench. He might learn something about makeup if he’s around major league players and coaches like Chase Utley.

I don’t care either way, after a month, whatever decision they make today probably won’t be standing by May. Things happen, I don’t know what will happen, but I’ll always bet on something happening.

Max Muncy could fail miserably and thus make Cody Bellinger the 1st baseman again with Verdugo becoming the right fielder

Pollock could have yet another fluke injury

Joc could regress back to 2017

Seager could prove to be a brittle shortstop

Hernandez could fail at being a starting 2nd baseman, or Chris Taylor could fail at being a starting 2nd baseman.

MLB regulates away the Marlon Anderson and Ronnie Belliard’s of the world.

While my two favorite new rules don’t go into effect until 2020, in 2019 MLB will put into effect a rule change with huge ramifications. It may not seem like much but having only one true trade deadline means that teams have to make up their minds thirty games before they are used to do doing so.

In the past, the Dodgers have made good use of the 2nd trading deadline that involved a player being put on waivers after the July 31st trade deadline. These players included the second greatest LAD Dodger season ever for a player with at least 50 plate appearances. The infamous Marlon Anderson who was acquired on August 31st, 2006 for   Jhonny Nunez.  You had to be there to appreciate what Marlon Anderson did in 2006. Manny Ramirez sits on the top of the list after being acquired in 2008, but Manny is a HOF level hitter so him hitting is no surprise. Marlon Anderon, on the other hand, had a career OPS+ of 84 and would be completely out of baseball in just three years. You could make a case that Marlon’s month of Sept is one of the flukiest months in the history of modern baseball.

Rk            Player  PA OPS+ Year   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS      Pos
1      Manny Ramirez 229  221 2008 .396 .489 .743 1.232       *7
2    Marlon Anderson  73  208 2006 .375 .431 .813 1.243   *7H/49
3        Rick Monday 156  194 1981 .315 .423 .608 1.031    *9H/7
4       Mike Kinkade  60  194 2002 .380 .483 .600 1.083    *H3/7
5     Hanley Ramirez 336  189 2013 .345 .402 .638 1.040    *6/HD
6        Mike Piazza 633  185 1997 .362 .431 .638 1.070    *2/DH
7     Pedro Guerrero 581  182 1985 .320 .422 .577  .999 *7538/H9
8         Manny Mota  50  178 1977 .395 .521 .500 1.021     *H/7
9     Gary Sheffield 612  176 2000 .325 .438 .643 1.081     *7/D
10   Ronnie Belliard  83  174 2009 .351 .398 .636 1.034     45/H
18   Justin Ruggiano  60  165 2015 .291 .350 .618  .968    *7/H9

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/14/2019.

Number ten on this list is Ronnie Belliard who was acquired on Sept 2, 2009 from the Nationals for Victor Garate.  At the time, longtime Dodger writer Chad Moriyama called Belliard a “shitty hitter”. Ronnie would put up a 174 OPS+ and helped lead the Dodgers to the 2009 Western Division Title. Joe Torre would bench the regular starting 2nd baseman Orlando Hudson and use Belliard. Ronnie proved so important to the team that when he missed the games from Monday – Friday the Dodgers lost every game.

On Sept 26th the Dodgers beat the Pirates behind three hits from Belliard and were six games in front of the Rockies. On Sept 27th, Belliard got hurt and the Dodgers lost the game. Belliard would not play again until Oct 3rd. They lost every game from Sept 28th thru Oct 2nd and the one-time six-game lead had been shaved to only one game. The Rockies beat them on Oct 2nd. Nothing was going right for the Dodgers headed into that game on Saturday Night except, for one thing, they had 21-year-old Clayton Kershaw on the mound. This was long before Clayton would establish himself as the premier pitcher in baseball, but on this night he gave a glimpse of what he would become. Against the hottest team in baseball, he shut them out for six innings. The problem, however, was that the Dodgers had also been shutout for six innings. Entering the bottom of the 7th the score was tied 0 – 0. Casey Blake led off with single, and James Loney put down the sacrifice bunt. Joe Torre then made one of his greatest managerial moves as a Dodger. He pinch-hit Ronny Belliard for Orlando Hudson. Ronny hadn’t had an at-bat since the previous Sunday but the Rockie pitcher was Franklin Morales a lefty. Belliard came through with a seeing-eye single between 1st and 2nd and drove in Casey Blake. The Dodgers erupt for five runs that innings and clinched the Division title but it was Belliard who put them on the board.

I was at the game with a TrueBlueLA Dodger get together. We celebrated with 20 – 30 of our favorite Dodger fans and that game is one of those that I’ll always remember as one of my favorite games.

Ronnie put up a 174 OPS+ for the Dodgers in 2009 compared to his career OPS+ of 96. He would be out of baseball just one year later.

Justin Ruggiano has the 18th best OPS+ for a LAD with at least 50 plate appearances. Justin was acquired in 2015 from the Seattle Mariners on August 31st. Justin tore it up as a Dodger putting up an OPS of .968, 290 OPS points higher as a Dodger than he did as a Mariner that season.  Justin gave the Dodgers 55 amazing at-bats, he would only get 84 more at-bats before his career was over.

You won’t be seeing any more stories like this, that era has come to an end, but for those of us who saw Marlon Anderson, Ronnie Belliard, and Justin Ruggiano put on their magic show in Sept, it was something we won’t’ forget.

 

MLB is about to get better

The owners and players have agreed to make some changes to how the game of major league baseball is played and I for one heartily cheer several of the new rules.  I’ve read numerous accounts of the changes but buried in the lede of just about all of them is a change I’ve advocated for since I started writing about baseball.  As a kid, I loved Sept baseball and the chance to watch the prospects, as an adult I’ve been appalled at how baseball simply played the game by different rules in the most important month of the season.

Starting in 2020 that will no longer be the case.

The 2020 provisions are likely to have a far greater impact on the field. In addition to the three-batter minimum, regular-season rosters will expand from 25 to 26 players while September rosters will contract to a maximum of 28.

No longer will teams play games in Sept with 15 – 20 pitchers available, and pinch-runners up the wazoo available to them.

Woo Hoo

For years I’ve been told I was crazy for wanting Sept baseball played like the rest of the year. Well, call me crazy, because baseball has finally come to their senses.

The other rule is that a pitcher must face a minimum of three batters. No more Tony LaRussa innings where it would take four pitchers to get three outs. This is the rule that baseball needed most.  It may not make for shorter games, but it will eliminate dead time as managers visit the mound, replace the pitcher, warm-ups, and do it all over again for the next hitter. If a pitcher can’t pitch to at least three hitters, he shouldn’t be in the major leagues. I was advocating for at least one out, or hopefully three, but I’ll take this.

There are changes that take place in 2019. July 31st will be the only trade deadline, no more waiver shenanigans after July 31st. Some of the Dodgers most important in-season acquisitions have come after July 31st so this could have a major impact on how teams approach the one and only trade deadline.

I only understand one change to the All-Star festivities. A one million dollar prize will be awarded to the winner. This is supposed to get the best hitters to participate. Maybe it will, maybe it won’t. There are other changes but I don’t quite understand them yet.

Some may grumble about these changes, but I find them to be a breath of fresh air compared to the silly time clock rules they have tried to implement.

Plus not one mention of bringing the DH to the NL.