Pitching fWAR in the twenty-tens decade
Bobby Down in the comments at www.truebluela.com posted the top fWAR for players in this decade. With his permission lets take a look at the pitchers.
Below are the top 20 pitchers sorted by fWAR showing any top ten finishes in fWAR for that season.
Clayton Kershaw had the best fWAR in 2016 even though he only pitched 149 innings. Maybe this has been researched already, but I have to think that Clayton leading the pitchers in fWAR without pitching at least 150 innings is probably a first in baseball history for any full season.
Few things that stand out:
Fighting for 2nd place:
Justin Verlander, David Price, and Max Scherzer will all be fighting for second place. Less than two fWAR separate the three pitchers. Verlander had a nice bounceback season in 2016 and might be able to hold off Scherzer and Price. Price will need his own bounceback in 2017 to stay in contention. Scherzer is at his peak, can he hold it for a few more years? If I was to bet I’d bet on Max Scherzer holding the second spot by the end of the decade.
Consistently good never great:
Jordan Zimmerman, Cole Hamels, and Steven Strasburg have managed to be three of the top twenty even though none of them have a top ten finish this decade. I doubt Zimmerman nor Hamels have one in their future but I do think Strasburg does.
Very impressive work by Hamels to have accumulated almost 29 fWAR in seven seasons without ever being in the top ten.
Quintana just makes the list but has only been pitching since 2012 (five seasons) giving him an average fWAR of almost 4 which is what Hamels has been doing. With Quintana sill in his prime, he should just keep moving up this list. The same can’t be said for Jordan Zimmerman who will probably fall off next year.
I would add Bumgarner to this list. He has two 10th place finishes but has totaled almost 28 fWAR in that time. Might as well add Johnny Cueto to this group.
Retired – Only Cliff Lee has retired from this group. With three seasons to go, I don’t think Cliff Lee will be in the top 20 when the decade is over. I’d have to see how many pitchers have already put up between 15 – 18 fWAR and are in their prime.
Greybeard – CC has been pitching forever and hasn’t touched a top ten since 2011. He won’t touch one in 2017 either and I wonder if he’ll be in the top twenty when the decade is over.
Headed the wrong way – King Felix isn’t far behind Max Scherzer but while Max was winning the NL CYA, King Felix was putting up a 4.63 FIP and generally looking nothing like the stud who dominated AL pitching along with Verlander from 2009 – 2014. Zach Grienke may get straightened out in 2017 but is also very possible that he’s headed downhill just one year removed from his brilliant 2016 campaign. Wainwright looks like the most done of these three.
Surprising Names – I was surprised to see Gio Gonzalez and Anibal Sanchez. Really surprised to see Gio. So surprised I have nothing to say.
Rising stars – Chris Sale and Corey Kluber
Morrow is today
I have a long history of liking injury prone pitchers and rarely do they pay off.
- Josh Johnson
- Brett Anderson
- Ben Sheets
- Brandon Morrow
are the four who come to mind and all of them left me looking silly. I have to keep that in mind as I continue to hope that Ryu can defy the injury odds and come back.
The Dodgers have decided to play my game. They just added long injured Brandon Morrow to the stable of oft-injured pitchers trying to help the Dodgers in 2017.
Morrow who always seemed to have the stuff of a bullpen pitcher instead of a starter will be trying to make the Dodgers major league bullpen this spring. At one time Morrow had as electric stuff as any in baseball but after making the 2015 Padre roster as the fifth starter his shoulder caused him to miss almost two years. Sound familiar? In his case it was a shoulder impingement, not a torn labrum but he has a checkered health history nonetheless.
Morrow made five starts in 2015 before being shut down on May 2nd. He would not pitch again for the Padres in 2015. Those five starts were good though, at least four of the five were.
May 2014 he suffered a torn tendon sheath in his right hand and missed four months, pitching just five innings in September.
After suffering an arm injury in May 2013 he was finally diagnosed in July with an entrapped radial nerve and would miss the rest of the season.
June 2012, Morrow suffered an oblique strain and would not pitch again until August 25th. He last start on Oct 3rd against the Twins shows why he kept getting chance after chance. Eight innings, eleven strikeouts, one walk, three hits, one earned run.
Morrow is the perfect NRI, a guy who when healthy can help but you get him for almost nothing because he can rarely stay healthy long enough to help.
He pitched his guts out!
I’m stealing this line from my friend Gary regarding Frias and his long-running oblique injury in 2016 which eventually sealed the deal for his DFA this past week to make room for our new minor league right-hand hitting outfielder Brent Eibner
Frias was once mentioned in a fangraphs article by Carson Cistulli which felt he could be quite the sleeper. Those who read the article felt they had something, but like many sleepers, he never woke up and the Frias Dodger legacy was never fulfilled.
Eibner will be joining Darin Ruf, Scott Van Slyke, Enrique Hernandez, and Trayce Thompson as right-handed hitting outfielders. Much like Trayce Thompson, Eibner comes to the Dodgers with the reputation as a good defensive outfielder who can hit left-hand pitching. Given the healthy history of Ruff/SVS/Thompson having Eibner as minor league depth seems like a good idea.
I’ve got no Mastercard
Dodgers pre-sales for 2017 goes on today, but only for owners of a MasterCard.
As a valued Mastercard® cardholder, you have the opportunity to purchase Dodgers home game tickets for the 2017 season, excluding Opening Day, before the general public.
- Wednesday, January 25
- 10:00am
- Purchase tickets to all Dodgers home games, excluding Opening Day
The problem is I don’t have a MasterCard. I was as surprised as you are. I have a visa debit card. I have an American Express card. I have Citi Costco visa card. I have several visa cards related to banking accounts.
Not a one one Mastercard.
hmmm
Ryu and Trayce working their way back to you Babe
Two key players who the Dodgers are hoping to contribute in 2017 but not counting on are doing their best to be parts of the World Champion effort of 2017.
Yoo Jee-ho reports that Hyun-jin Ryu claims to be pain-free and ready for spring training.
“Right now, I’d say I am in better shape than I normally would be at the start of spring training,” Ryu told reporters at Incheon International Airport. “I threw four bullpen sessions a day while training in Japan. I have no pain at the moment.”
Being pain-free before throwing consistently from the mound is a different beast all-together, but that is the first step. Some pitchers never even get to that step after undergoing all the surgeries that Ryu has had over the past two seasons.
Once Ryu shows up for spring training he will still need to answer two major questions.
- Can Ryu step up his pain-free progress to the point he can join a rotation?
- Even if Ryu is pain-free and shows he can make 100 pitches an outing, are those pitches going to be good enough to help a Dodger rotation?
There are many Ryu doubters and with good reasons. The pitchers who have come back from shoulder issues and continued to be as good as they were before the shoulder surgery is a small number. All Dodger fans are hoping the doubters are wrong and that Ryu can pick up where he left off in October of 2014.
The best big three this team has had in the 21st century might have been the 2014 version of Kershaw/Greinke/Ryu. On Sept 6th, Ryu pitched his last regular season major league gem. He would only pitch one inning the rest of the season but would come back on Oct 6th to pitch the Dodgers to a 1 – 1 tie over six innings in the pivotal game three of the NLDS. The Dodgers would lose that game 3 – 1 when Elbert and company gave up two runs in the 7th. It was the last time Ryu would pitch a major league game until last summer when he briefly showed up to pitch four innings.
Ryu was a joy to have on the team in 2013 and 2014. More than any Dodger trying to find their way onto the Dodger team in 2017, he’s the one I’m rooting for.
Trayce Thompson had his season cut short last year on July 10th. Acquired in the big three-way deal last winter he is the only player still remaining with the team from that trade. Trayce was supposed to offer the Dodgers a solid right-handed bat against left-hand pitching while being able to play every outfield position. He did play all over the outfield 32 in CF, 28 in RF, and 24 in LF. He wasn’t the defensive savant we had been told about but he was adequate in CF, looked good in RF and LF. He has the speed, but not the instincts to be a good CF. His bat against left-hand pitching is what didn’t fit the bill. In 2015 he punished left-hand pitchers with a .998 OPS. For the Dodgers that dropped to .708.
Thompson is coming back from a back injury and claims to be almost there.
He said he is now taking batting practice and has begun light jogging with no setbacks. Thompson said his target date to be 100 percent healthy is March 1, in time for Spring Training games to join a crowded outfield.
Supposedly the back started bothering him in Mid May. At that point, Trayce was looking like the future and present Dodger left fielder. Andre Ethier was out and it was Thompson’s job to claim. Then Puig got hurt and Trayce got to play RF everyday. On June 6th he got his OPS up to .925 and everything was great in La La land for Trayce. That was his peak, and from June 7th to the time he went on the DL he hit only .173 / .242 / .309 /.551.
When Trayce comes to spring training he has several things to prove.
- Is his problematic back healthy?
- Is he the guy who crushed LHP in 2015 or the guy who struggled against them in 2016?
- Can he beat out Ruf/SVS for a spot on the major league roster?
- Can he be an everyday outfielder for a contending team?
- If not an everyday outfielder can he be the main platoon player for Andre or Toles or Joc?
The Dodgers will be a better team if the 2015 White Sox and April/May/June Dodger version of Trayce is the better barometer of his ability. His brother has a trophy, if Trayce is that version, it will make the odds of him getting his own trophy, all that higher.
Dodgers get their Logan
Everyone can now put to rest who the Dodger 2nd baseman will be in 2017 as the Dodgers acquired Logan Forsythe from the Tampa Bay Rays. The one-time utility player for the San Diego Padres found a Justin Turner type renaissance with the Rays and has been the starting second baseman for the Rays the past two years.
Forsythe meets all the criteria the Dodgers were looking for.
- 2nd baseman
- Right handed
- Hits left hand pitching extremely well
- Under team control for at least two years
- Has a nice contract
Some 2016 Forsythe notes:
- After the all-star break Forsythe high point OPS was .831 on Sept 11th.
- He finished the season 14 for 80 which brought his OPS down to the final .778
- He did have a one little and one big injury last year resulting in 127 games started
- Missed four games due to back spasms in August
- Hairline fracture of his left shoulder put him on the DL 5/14 – he returned 6/10
The price could be high as they sent Jose DeLeon to the Rays but it filled a huge hole. DeLeon will be very close to his Puerto Rican home as he hopes to make a name for himself in the tough AL East.
Here is the Dodger press release information:
LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers today acquired infielder Logan Forsythe from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for right-handed pitcher José De León.
Forsythe, 30, has combined to slug 57 doubles, 37 homers and drive in 120 runs in 280 games with Tampa Bay over the past two seasons, including batting .264 with 52 RBI and setting career-best marks with 20 home runs, four triples and 76 runs scored as the Rays’ primary leadoff hitter in 127 games last year. In 2015, batting in the middle of the Rays’ lineup, Forsythe led Tampa Bay qualifiers in batting average (.281), on-base percentage (.359) and slugging percentage (.444), while posting a .299/.373/.599 slashline against left-handers. His slugging percentage against lefties (.599) ranked third in the American League in 2015, behind only Nelson Cruz (.673) and Josh Donaldson (.632).
Forsythe has a .255 career batting average with 55 homers and 203 RBI in 618 games in six big-league seasons with the Padres (2011-13) and Rays (2014-16) after being selected by San Diego in the first round (46th overall) of the 2008 First-Year Player Draft out of the University of Arkansas. The Tennessee native has primarily appeared at second base during the course of his career (.980 fielding percentage in 456 games), but has also seen work at third base (56 games), first base (27 games), shortstop (19 games) and outfield (16 games).
De León, who was rated as the Dodgers’ No. 3 prospect by Baseball America, went 2-0 with a 6.35 ERA in four starts in his first big-league action in 2016. The 24-year-old native of Puerto Rico went 7-1 with a 2.61 ERA in 16 starts with Triple-A Oklahoma City last year and has posted a 23-13 career record with a 3.35 ERA in 67 games (64 starts) in four minor league seasons in the Los Angeles organization after being selected in the 24th round of the 2013 First-Year Player Draft out of Southern University.
Chris Thile and the new PHC show
Garrison Keillor gave up the Praire Home Companion show and now ponders giving up Christianity.
So I’ve been shopping around for a new religion to see me through the next four years. Too many of my fellow Christians voted for selfishness and for degradation of the beautiful world God created. I guess they figured that by the time the planet was a smoky wasteland, they’d be nice and comfy in heaven, so wotthehell. Anyhow, I’m looking around for other options.
While Keillor is searching for a new religion, taking Garrison’s position as host of PHC is Chris Thile, and we were lucky to catch the new show at the Pasadena Civic Auditorium this past Saturday. While many like minded folk were marching for a myriad of rights, Chris Thile and his special guests were entertaining those of us who didn’t make the trip to downtown Los Angeles. I will admit to feeling a bit guilty about being entertained instead of voicing our protests but I did buy these tickets a long time before the march was setup. Hell, I bought them before I even knew the nation would get trumped.
I’m glad I did, though, the show was excellent from beginning to end. Chris Thile is the master of the mandolin an instrument I have rarely heard, and I’ve never heard played like Chris Thile can play it. The new PRC show is more about music, but the old time radio players are still part of the show.
The band was excellent from bass legend Mike Elizondo to guitar virtuoso Julian Lage with drummer Ted Poor keeping it all in the beat.
Special guests were Ryan Adams, Kacey Musgraves, Justin Hurwitz, and Aoife O’Donavan. The highlight for me was the surprise appearance of Justin Hurwitz the recent winner of two Golden Globes for his scoring of La La Land. Aiofe and Thile collaborated on singing the two most well-known songs of the movie.
The other interesting part was the birthday section where Thile and the band perform selections from those who had a birthday the previous or coming week. One of the birthdays was Dolly Parton’s so they performed 9 – 5. I’m not the biggest Dolly fan but I had to laugh because we had just watched the movie 9 – 5 a few days before. A movie we had not seen since it had been in the theater’s a lifetime ago.
After the show, we had dinner across the street at El Chollo and socked down the baskets of chips with the table made guacamole. Once dinner was done we headed home just before the rains would hit. On the way home, what was on the radio? Why the Prairie Home Companion show we had just been a part of.
Education Education
The California State college systems were the only colleges that I’d been able to afford or even get into for me. Full-time employment while hitting college these working colleges are the lifeblood of California. This report shows the data and how these state colleges all over the country are propelling low-income students into middle class.
As Ray Davies once sang “everyone needs an education” it still applies today.
Yes, the universities that educate students from modest backgrounds face big challenges, particularly state budget cuts. But many of them are performing much better than their new stereotype suggests. They remain deeply impressive institutions that continue to push many Americans into the middle class and beyond — many more, in fact, than elite colleges that receive far more attention.
Where does this optimistic conclusion come from? The most comprehensive study of college graduates yet conducted, based on millions of anonymous tax filings and financial-aid records. Published Wednesday, the study tracked students from nearly every college in the country (including those who failed to graduate), measuring their earnings years after they left campus. The paper is the latest in a burst of economicresearch made possible by the availability of huge data sets and powerful computers.
I could throw up quite a few quotes from this excellent article but I’d suggest reading the whole piece.
Now for something completely different
Right now the Dodgers options for second base are Enrique Hernandez, Chris Taylor, Willie Calhoun, and in theory Austin Barnes.
Ken Rosenthal chimes in recently on who the Dodgers might be targeting for second base now that the Dozier talks have cooled off. He mentioned names like
Most of the Dodgers’ preferences are not known, but they’ve spoken with the Rangers about infielder Jurickson Profar, sources said. Two other switch-hitting second basemen — the Phillies’ Cesar Hernandez and Nationals’ Wilmer Difo -– would be potential fits, but it is not confirmed that they actually are on the Dodgers’ radar.
Dave Cameron at Fangraphs even got involved. He seems to think Profar of the Rangers would be a possibility.
Dustin Nosler of Dodger Digest thinks Javier Baez might be a good fit.
That Baez would be Javier Baez. The 24-year-old made a name for himself in the postseason with his glove, but got into the lineup more with Kyle Schwarber out for virtually all of the regular season. Still, he played in 142 games and compiled a 2.7 fWAR. He did that while having a below-average wRC+ of 94, which speaks volumes about his defensive mastery. Baez had 11 defensive runs saved at second base, which tied Robinson Cano for third-best in baseball. The rub is, he did it in 383 defensive innings (Cano had 1,376 1/3 innings). He was also a plus-defender at shortstop and third base, but those positions are, understandably, filled.
So the likely suspects from what I’ve read are:
Dozier, Kinsler, Profar, Baez, Forsythe.
Which pleases me because the player I’m thinking of hasn’t been mentioned by anyone so here is my take on a player that I think could be had and might be worth a gamble.
Problem with my view is that I think more like a small market team and so I research that way.
I’m looking for a right-handed hitting second baseman, under team control for at least two years, has some power, has speed, can hit left-handers, has shown signs of being more than the totality of his career so far.
When doing the research on the greatest LAD to ever play second base, Davey Lopes, his road to becoming the greatest LAD the second baseman continues to resonate with me. He was 28 before the fully formed Davey Lopes hit the major leagues and I’m sure he would have struggled in the major leagues if he been promoted sooner. Lopes might have struggled so much that he probably would have been labeled a utility player and never gotten the opportunity he eventually got moving right into the starting second base gig in 1973.
When I do these exercises I’m not looking for the guy who already broke out, I’m looking for the guy I think has a reasonable chance to breakout. Someone whose power is just now starting to show up.
Later I will use statcast for this exercise but today I’m simply using my gut and simple searches that met my above criteria.
For example:
Player A:
2015 – Age 22, 3rd Major League season, 219 BA, .291 OBA, .631 OPS, 10 steals in 355 PA. Career at that point was 636 PA, .239 BA, .298 OBA, .346 Slug, .644 OPS. He had played 132 games at 3rd base, 109 games at SS, 58 games at 2nd base, and 50 games in the outfield.
Headed into 2016 no one thought he was anyone’s answer to an infield problem.
But he was exactly the answer. It took all summer but by August 1st he became the de facto starting 3rd baseman for the 2016 American League Champions. He earned the job by having a triple stat line of .293 / .354 / . 414 / .786. From that point on he was the catalyst for the Indians winning the AL Central and going to the World Series. Hyperbole you say?
Not really, Jose Ramirez hit .339 / .377 / .533 / .910 from August 1st to the end of the season. He plugged a hole and in so doing changed the team dynamic.
He was every bit the Justin Turner of the American League. And no one saw it coming.
Who can be that guy in 2017?
I’m going to nominate this guy
Player B:
2015 – Age 24, basically first real major league season, .243 BA / .257 OBA / .327 Slug /.584 OPS. He played 80 games at 3rd, 19 games at 2nd, 7 games at 1st, 6 games at SS. Just like player A, he was horrible at the beginning of his career.
2016 – Age 25, .272 BA, .302 OBA, .428 Slug, .730 OPS. He played 60 games at 3rd, 36 games in RF, 11 games at 2nd, 8 games in CF, 6 games at 1st, 3 games at SS, and 2 games in LF. Much like player A, he played everywhere. He also stole 34 bases while getting caught only seven times. This helped him to a decent 2.0 bWAR while garnering only 430 plate appearances. He had the strange split of hitting .287 / .317 / . 489 as a 3rd baseman in 188 plate appearances but only .244 / .273 / .378 as a right fielder. He also slugged 100 points higher against left-hand pitching.
Player B is Hernan Perez of the Brewers. As a minor leaguer, he played more games at SS/2nd than anywhere else. He’s a middle infielder, not an outfielder, not a 3rd baseman.
He’s my pick to improve in 2017 that no one saw coming and who might be a better option than Logan Forsythe for 2017. You could say if that is the case, why isn’t he starting at 2nd base for the Brewers? And I’d reply why was Justin Turner released by the Mets? Why was Jose Ramirez cast as a utility player headed into 2016? Why was JD Martinez released by both the Rays and Astros? Why were Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion blasting home runs in Toronto after their original teams didn’t know what they had?
Oh, he’s also only one of six players to have hit at least 13 home runs, stolen over 30 bases, and had an OBP below .305 in the 21st century: One year after Carlos Gomez did this at roughly the same age, Gomez was a two-time all-star and garnering MVP votes. Of course that partially due to his elite CF defense.
Just saying if Jurickson is on the Dodger rader, Hernan Perez should also be. He’s got more power, has more speed and is better at stealing bases, is still under team control for three years, and shouldn’t cost much in assets.
Later, we discuss Marwin Gonzalez
and here is statcast and the glossary for these new terms that will probably become commonplace this summer:
| Player | BBE | Max EV (mph) | Avg EV (mph) | Avg FB/LD EV (mph) |
| Hernan Perez | 283 | 108.2 | 89.2 | 90 |
| Ian Kinsler | 455 | 105.5 | 87.5 | 90.5 |
| Logan Forsythe | 344 | 109.4 | 90.7 | 93.4 |
| Jurickson Profar | 182 | 107.5 | 86.8 | 89.1 |
| Brett Lawrie | 207 | 109.8 | 90 | 92.9 |
| Marwin Gonzalez | 318 | 110.2 | 89.8 | 94.2 |
| Player | Max DST (ft) | Avg DST (ft) | Avg HR-DST (ft) | Barrels |
| Hernan Perez | 458 | 221 | 390 | 11 |
| Ian Kinsler | 417 | 234 | 381 | 18 |
| Logan Forsythe | 432 | 234 | 396 | 26 |
| Jurickson Profar | 415 | 191 | 395 | 6 |
| Brett Lawrie | 417 | 223 | 396 | 12 |
| Marwin Gonzalez | 440 | 210 | 392 | 19 |
Dodgers, Yesterday and Today 