Forget past failures of October

♦ October 11, 2017 ♦ 6 Comments

I was thinking about something Jon Weisman tweeted yesterday

and it made me realize the only way to really enjoy this upcoming NLCS is to block out our past failures and simply concentrate on 2017.

  • This team does not have Jonathan Broxton it has Kenley Jansen
  • This team does not have Joe Blanton it has Brandon Morrow
  • This team does not have George Sherrill it has Tony Cingrani
  • This team does not have Pedro Baez it has………oh shit it still has Pedro Baez

The new shiny things we have in 2017 we did not have in previous Octobers in the 21st century:

  • This team has Cody Bellinger at 1st base, and as he showed in game three of the 2017 NLDS, he can beat you numerous ways. Cody has only been in one postseason series and is 1 – 0.
  • Austin Barnes and Yazmani Grandal are the best backstop duo in baseball. Barnes did not shrink from his first starts in the postseason and is now 2 – 0 in games he has started in the postseason.
  • Out of nowhere, Chris Taylor became the Dodgers dynamic center fielder who much like the other two players mentioned above can beat you in different ways.
  • Yasiel Puig is not new, but this version of Puig looks completely new compared to the version Dodger fans have seen in October since he arrived in 2013.  The one thing Puig did not do was put on a defensive clinic against the Diamondbacks, expect that to change in the NLCS.
  • Granderson is new, uh for now, that is all I got. He’s new.

Except for Granderson, the key to the newbies is that they are multidimensional baseball talents. They can all hit, hit with power, patient, defend, and run. Even the catcher Austin Barnes can run.

The newbie pitching:

  • Have to start with Yu. One start in, he looks like what the doctor ordered.
  • Brandon Morrow has been the best offseason cheapie signing the Dodgers have done since Justin Turner. Or maybe since Chase Utley. Whatever, he be awesome.
  • Tony Cingrani had all the skills and none of the results when the Dodgers traded for him. Now he’s all results.
  • Tony Watson can almost do anything Cingrani can do
  • And of course Kenta Maeda. Bullpen Kenta is a brand new key so shiny and sparkly.

So, my advice to myself is to forget about the past and enjoy the present as the Dodgers head to the NLCS with the World Series in their headlights.  As good as this team is, they may not make it. We may see some new heartbreak,  and baseball being baseball we are going to see something we never expected.  But instead of looking for the next heartbreak, I’m going to look for the next Mickey Hatcher moment.

 

 

While my Guitar gently walks

♦ October 10, 2017 ♦ Leave a comment

The Indians will be playing in an elimination game tomorrow and noted baseball columnist Mike Petriello has pegged Carlos Santana as a likely hero for the Indians.

I’ve been writing about Carlos Santana since he first appeared as a Dodger prospect in the rookie leagues and he has never failed to disappoint.  He has had a very unique career as this table shows.

Only three players since 2011 have had at least 500 walks and 150 home runs.

Carlos  Santana is one of them.

Player           WAR/pos  HR  BB From   To   Age   PA
Carlos Santana      22.5 168 689 2011 2017 25-31 4590
Jose Bautista       26.1 218 645 2011 2017 30-36 4124
Joey Votto          39.8 167 771 2011 2017 27-33 4271

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/10/2017.

NLDS thoughts and stats

♦ October 10, 2017 ♦ 2 Comments

If there was an NLDS MVP I would think that Justin Turner would get the vote, though I also think that Austin Barnes was almost as important. Turner also looked very nifty at 3rd this series.

Last night the corner infielders were putting on a defensive clinic.

For the most part, the Dodgers got on base up and down the lineup with the exception being Curtis Granderson. Bellinger didn’t have a great offensive series but he had himself a game in game three.

Puig was locked in and looked as scary at the plate as I’d remembered since June of 2014.

Things are going well when your starting catcher loses his job not because of poor performance but simply because the backup catcher thinks he’s Johnny Bench right now.

Seager didn’t hit the ball hard, but he did walk four times in three games helping set the stage for Justin Turner and Puig to drive in nine runs.

Logan Forsythe was a factor, leaving the Dodgers with only one hole, left field.

I understand Roberts wanting to keep Andre on the bench for a key pinch-hitting role.  With Curtis Granderson being the only thing to complain about he got some grief on twitter but like Roberts and a few of his other supporters, I do think he’s going to make a positive impact at some point in this series. It just smells right.

Name                  AB    R    H   2B   3B   HR  RBI   BB   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS
Cody Bellinger        14    3    3    0    0    1    2    1 .214  .267  .429  .695
Chris Taylor          13    3    3    1    0    0    1    2 .231  .333  .308  .641
Justin Turner         13    1    6    0    0    1    5    1 .462  .533  .692 1.226
Yasiel Puig           11    0    5    1    1    0    4    2 .455  .538  .727 1.266
Corey Seager          11    3    3    0    1    0    2    4 .273  .467  .455  .921
Logan Forsythe         9    4    4    0    0    0    1    1 .444  .500  .444  .944
Austin Barnes          8    4    4    1    0    1    3    1 .500  .556 1.000 1.556
Curtis Granderson      8    1    1    0    0    0    0    0 .125  .125  .125  .250
Yasmani Grandal        4    0    0    0    0    0    0    0 .000  .000  .000  .000
Enrique Hernandez      3    1    1    1    0    0    0    1 .333  .500  .667 1.167
Chase Utley            2    0    0    0    0    0    0    2 .000  .500  .000  .500
Kyle Farmer            1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0 .000  .000  .000  .000
Andre Ethier           0    0    0    0    0    0    0         1             1.000
Totals               104   20   31    4    2    3   18   16 .298  .397  .462  .858

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/10/2017.

On the pitching side, all of the starters did their job because we don’t expect much from starters in 2017.  It really does appear that Kershaw should never see the 7th inning again.  Another great start was throttled by the need to try to get him through the 7th and there really isn’t any need for it. The bullpen is good.  As expected Ross Stripling saw no action. It was also nice that Alex Wood didn’t see any action.

Kenta Maeda certainly looks like someone you can count on in a relief role. He pitched like a boss last night. Next time you feel the need to use Clayton in the 7th, take a deep breath and make sure you have Kenta warmed up and ready to start the inning instead. I don’t care what the score. No Hitter, I Don’t care.

                      
Name               G   ERA   IP    H   ER   BB   SO  WHIP
Clayton Kershaw    1  5.68  6.1    5    4    3    7 1.263
Yu Darvish         1  1.80  5.0    2    1    0    7 0.400
Rich Hill          1  4.50  4.0    3    2    3    4 1.500
Kenley Jansen      3  0.00  3.2    2    0    1    4 0.818
Brandon Morrow     3  2.45  3.2    2    1    0    1 0.545
Kenta Maeda        2  0.00  2.0    0    0    0    4 0.000
Tony Cingrani      2  0.00  1.0    0    0    0    0 0.000
Tony Watson        2 18.00  1.0    3    2    0    0 3.000
Josh Fields        1  0.00  0.1    1    0    0    1 3.000
Totals            16  3.33 27.0   18   10    7   28 0.926

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/10/2017.

Updated LAD NLDS Home Run list

♦ October 10, 2017 ♦ 1 Comment

With Cody Bellinger and Austin Barnes going deep last night and the NLDS over,  today is as good as any to update the NLDS home run list.  The TBS announcers last night kept calling Austin Barnes and Chris Taylor rookies even though I should have known better and for a minute I thought that Bellinger and Barnes were the first LAD rookies to homer in the same postseason game but alas, Barnes is not a rookie.

Last year the Dodgers hit five home runs but that was in five games not three. No one who hit an NLDS home run in 2016 hit one in 2017.  Adrian and Joc didn’t even make the postseason roster and Carlos Ruiz was traded last winter. Corey Seager was unable to add to the two NLDS home runs he hit last October.

Player Rookie Date Series Game HR
Cody Bellinger Yes 10/9/2017 NLDS 3 1
Austin Barnes No 10/9/2017 NLDS 3 1
Justin Turner No 10/6/2017 NLDS 1 1
Joc Pederson No 10/13/2016 NLDS 5 1
Adrian Gonzalez No 10/11/2016 NLDS 4 1
Carlos Ruiz No 10/10/2016 NLDS 3 1
Corey Seager Yes 10/9/2016 NLDS 2 1
Corey Seager Yes 10/7/2016 NLDS 1 1
Justin Turner No 10/7/2016 NLDS 1 1
Adrian Gonzalez No 10/12/2015 NLDS 3 1
Howie Kendrick No 10/12/2015 NLDS 3 1
Matt Kemp No 10/4/2014 NLDS 2 1
A.J. Ellis No 10/3/2014 NLDS 1 1
Adrian Gonzalez No 10/3/2014 NLDS 1 1
Carl Crawford No 10/7/2013 NLDS 4 2
Juan Uribe No 10/7/2013 NLDS 4 1
Carl Crawford No 10/6/2013 NLDS 3 1
Juan Uribe No 10/6/2013 NLDS 3 1
Hanley Ramirez No 10/4/2013 NLDS 2 1
Adrian Gonzalez No 10/3/2013 NLDS 1 1
Andre Ethier No 10/10/2009 NLDS 3 1
Andre Ethier No 10/8/2009 NLDS 2 1
Matt Kemp No 10/7/2009 NLDS 1 1
Manny Ramirez No 10/2/2008 NLDS 2 1
James Loney No 10/1/2008 NLDS 1 1
Manny Ramirez No 10/1/2008 NLDS 1 1
Russell Martin No 10/1/2008 NLDS 1 1
Jeff Kent No 10/7/2006 NLDS 3 1
Wilson Betemit No 10/5/2006 NLDS 2 1
Jayson Werth Yes 10/10/2004 NLDS 4 1
Shawn Green No 10/9/2004 NLDS 3 2
Jayson Werth Yes 10/7/2004 NLDS 2 1
Milton Bradley No 10/7/2004 NLDS 2 1
Shawn Green No 10/7/2004 NLDS 2 1
Tom Wilson No 10/5/2004 NLDS 1 1
Eric Karros No 10/4/1995 NLDS 2 2
Mike Piazza No 10/3/1995 NLDS 1 1
Pedro Guerrero No 10/10/1981 NLDS 4 1
Steve Garvey No 10/9/1981 NLDS 3 1
Steve Garvey No 10/6/1981 NLDS 1 1

 

Barnes + Bellinger + Bridge = NLCS

♦ October 10, 2017 ♦ 3 Comments

Cody Bellinger put on his full display of baseball skills to a National audience on Monday night to lead the Dodgers to a sweep of the Diamondbacks putting them on a possible collision course with the World Champion Cubs who need to win one of the next two games to make it happen.

Bellinger had plenty of help but this was his night. Not that he wasn’t without his detractors. After his first at-bat Bellinger had been held hitless since his single in his first at-bat in game one and Dodger twitter fans were getting nervous (talking about you Bobby).  Since that first at-bat, however, Cody did the following:

A crazy catch in the Dodger dugout. All this while his teammates watched the franchise tumble head over first without being there to catch him. WTF was Dave Roberts doing?

 

Hit the youngest home run in LAD history in the postseason to put the Dodgers in front 2 – 1.

Make a sweet 3 – 6 – 3 DP

Make a sweet stab of ball headed for RF

Meanwhile, Austin Barnes clubbed a key home run to give the Dodgers some breathing room making the score 3 – 1. After all if Danny Delscaso is going to hit a home run, you can understand the need for some breathing room when facing Goldy/JD/Lamb.  I have to do some research but I think that was the first time two rookies hit a home run in a LAD postseason game.

The bridge belonged to Cingrani who was allowed to face one batter and get a double play. Brandon Morrow who took care of four outs to get the game to Kenta Maeda for the 8th. Kenta was so strong I would have not complained if he had been allowed to pitch the 9th( I lie).  Kenley finished the 9th and it worked just as it was drawn up.

Yu Darvish was brilliant. For five innings. Which I guess is all you need in October. He did what he needed to do except for one pitch.  The Dodgers acquired Yu to pitch well in October and he did exactly that.  For fifteen outs Darvish was masterful and looked to be on his way to pitching the best postseason game since Jose Lima. He was doing so well that Dave Roberts let him bat with a  runner on 3rd and only one out. One batter later he had been removed from the game and you could justifiably shake your head. Why let him hit if you were only going to let him face one hitter? That one hitter, however, took a ball to the noggin right after taking a ball to the nob of the bat.  I think Andy McCullough nailed the reason on the head.

Puig and Mondesi, side by side

♦ October 9, 2017 ♦ 2 Comments

With Yasiel Puig fulfilling the destiny of his twenty-six-year-old season he now ranks side by side with Raul Mondesi in OPS+.  Back in 2013 when Puig was going to start the year in AAA, I projected that he would come up and have a Raul Mondesi type of impact. He did, and now that he has completed the 2017 regular season you can see just how Mondesi like his career has been.

Below is a table of every LAD,  <= 26 years old, with an OPS+ of at least 109. Puig and Mondesi are within 150 plate appearances which means you can make some WAR comparisons. Mondesi had a bWAR of 17.1 while Puig is at 16.5.  The physical comparisons were there so it is interesting that they also ended up being replicated in the stats.

Player            OPS+   PA  HR   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
Mike Piazza        151 1592  92 .322 .375 .557 .932
Pedro Guerrero     144 1310  53 .305 .366 .502 .868
Corey Seager       133 1413  52 .305 .374 .502 .876
Frank Howard       129 1829  99 .280 .332 .512 .844
Yasiel Puig        128 2321  85 .281 .357 .475 .833

Raul Mondesi       127 2468 100 .299 .339 .511 .850
Matt Kemp          125 3158 128 .294 .350 .496 .846
Mike Marshall      120 2122  90 .268 .328 .456 .784
Steve Garvey       120 2424  64 .297 .332 .447 .779
Andre Ethier       118 1544  44 .299 .364 .482 .846
Willie Crawford    117 2227  54 .262 .346 .413 .759
Tommy Davis        117 2886  83 .303 .337 .448 .785
Ron Fairly         115 2998  62 .270 .361 .402 .763
Joc Pederson       112 1422  62 .222 .345 .435 .780
Jim Lefebvre       111 2111  49 .259 .327 .391 .718
Ron Cey            109 1315  34 .254 .346 .390 .736

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/9/2017.

Redemption day for Greinke

♦ October 9, 2017 ♦ 1 Comment

Even though Zack Greinke doesn’t think he has to be redeemed today, Arizona fans might feel differently. It was, after all, the poor start by the $34,000,000 dollar pitcher that put the team in such a bind because they had to use Robbie Ray in the play-in game instead of having him ready to face the Dodgers fresh for game one.

Greinke had been just about unbeatable at home this year

Split    W L  ERA GS    IP  WHIP  SO9 SO/W
Home    13 1 2.87 18 116.0 0.957 10.2 5.70
Away     4 6 3.65 14  86.1 1.228  8.8 3.82

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/9/2017.

but on Wednesday Night, with a 6 – 0 lead, the Rockies drove Greinke from the game in the fourth inning and the Diamondback pitching staff has been playing catch up ever since.

The Diamondbacks signed Greinke to that ridiculous contract for games like Wednesday and tonight. Will he deliver for them?

Yu Darvish was acquired by the Dodgers to be the right-hand man to Clayton Kershaw. They didn’t need Yu during the regular season but they need him tonight.  Yu could be adding millions to his free agent case the deeper he can pitch the Dodgers into the postseason. Given how starters are being used, you should probably expect to see Yu for only 5 – 6 innings at most.

The Dodgers have a chance to be the only playoff team to sweep a series and it would behoove them to do so.  This is a chance to cut off the head of the snake before he can find a way to deliver a lethal bite.

All hail Austin Barnes

♦ October 8, 2017 ♦ 1 Comment

Updated 10/10/17

The hottest hitter in the NLDS is not Justin Turner it is the Dodgers most versatile player, Austin Barnes.

Year   Series  Opp PA H 2B HR RBI SB BB   BA  OBP   SLG   OPS
2016     NLDS  WSN  1 0  0  0   0  0  0 .000 .000  .000  .000
2017     NLDS  ARI  9 4  1  1   3  1  1 .500 .556 1.000 1.556
2 Yr     2 Yr 2 Yr 10 4  1  1   3  1  1 .444 .500  .889 1.389
2 NL     2 NL 2 NL 10 4  1  1   3  1  1 .444 .500  .889 1.389

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/10/2017.

Which should not surprise anyone who has followed the team this year.  Austin Barnes was only allowed 269 plate appearances but he made the most of them. Only six catchers in LAD history have had at least 250 plate appearances and an OPS+ over 130.

Austin Barnes is one of them.

If you take away HOF Mike Piazza, using OPS+, Austin Barnes just had the 3rd best offensive season ever for a LAD catcher.

Those of us who watched Joe Ferguson tend to forget what an offensive force he was as a catcher.

Player          OPS+  PA Year Age  Tm
Mike Piazza      185 633 1997  28 LAD
Mike Piazza      172 475 1995  26 LAD
Mike Piazza      166 631 1996  27 LAD
Mike Piazza      153 602 1993  24 LAD
Todd Hundley     143 353 2000  31 LAD
Paul Lo Duca     142 519 2001  29 LAD
Mike Piazza      140 441 1994  25 LAD
Austin Barnes    137 262 2017  27 LAD
Mike Scioscia    136 526 1985  26 LAD
Joe Ferguson     136 585 1973  26 LAD
Joe Ferguson     132 430 1974  27 LAD
Joe Ferguson     131 442 1979  32 LAD

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Generated 10/8/2017.

How unique is Justin Turner?

♦ October 8, 2017 ♦ Leave a comment

Much has been made about Justin Turner having double-digit home run power while walking more than striking out.  Listening to Vin Scully for 50 years you heard Vinny marvel all the time about the power that Joe Dimaggio had while still maintaining minuscule strikeout totals.

I decided to see just how unique this skill set was, so below is the table for every LAD who has hit at least 20 home runs while walking more than they struck out.

Gary Sheffield is the boss with a difference of 41.  This list is loaded with some of the greatest hitters in LAD history but Gary Sheffield was the best at providing elite power while still walking more than he struck out.

Player HR KK-BB Year OPS
Gary Sheffield 34 -41 1999 0.930
Gary Sheffield 36 -40 2001 1.000
Reggie Smith 32 -39 1977 1.003
Eddie Murray 26 -39 1990 0.934
Gary Sheffield 43 -37 2000 1.081
Pedro Guerrero 33 -29 1985 0.999
Ron Cey 23 -28 1976 0.848
Eddie Murray 20 -26 1989 0.743
Nomar Garciaparra 20 -21 2006 0.872
Ron Cey 25 -19 1975 0.845
Joe Ferguson 25 -15 1973 0.839
Greg Brock 20 -14 1983 0.738
Davey Lopes 28 -13 1979 0.836
Paul Lo Duca 25 -11 2001 0.917
Mike Piazza 36 -9 1996 0.985
Ron Cey 28 -9 1979 0.888
Ron Cey 23 -9 1978 0.833
Justin Turner 21 -8 2017 0.945
Jim Wynn 32 -8 1974 0.884
Joe Ferguson 20 -8 1979 0.845
Pedro Guerrero 27 -7 1987 0.955
Shawn Green 42 -3 2002 0.944
Mike Piazza 40 -3 1997 1.070
Jeff Kent 20 0 2007 0.875
Duke Snider 23 0 1959 0.935

Can Robbie Ray stop the carnage?

♦ October 7, 2017 ♦ 1 Comment

It has been a bad run for young pitchers making their first postseason start so far in 2017.  Not just hit around a little, crushed.
When Taijuan Walker gave up four runs last night before recording an out, he was just following the same path of his fellow first time pitchers. He wasn’t even the worst, that still goes to Luis Severino.

Player                 Date Gm#   Rslt  IP H ER BB SO HR GSc
Taijuan Walker   2017-10-06   1  L 5-9 1.0 4  4  2  3  1  30

Jon Gray         2017-10-04   1 L 8-11 1.1 7  4  0  2  1  26
Drew Pomeranz    2017-10-06   2  L 2-8 2.0 5  4  1  1  2  30
Luis Severino    2017-10-03   1  W 8-4 0.1 4  3  1  0  2  30

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/7/2017.

Robbie Ray has been brilliant this year and pitched very well in the play-in game but it was not a start. He has also owned the Dodgers this year.

When he toes the rubber tonight, will he break the spell? Probably, but after pitching on Wednesday Night, and with the Dodgers bats feeling good again, I would not bet on him getting fifteen outs.

Then again, I would have bet on Kluber and Sale and we know how those games turned out.

Speaking of Kluber, hell yeah, to the Indians. What a great comeback.