What a game 4
The Dodgers lost last night but baseball won with the most entertaining postseason game of 2020. If the Rays go on to win the World Series the walk play in Game 4 will become historical, if they don’t it will merely be a footnote, but what a footnote.
So much had to to happen for Randy Arozarena to tap home plate for the winning run. If Chris Taylor fields the ball cleanly, Azorarena is held up at 3rd and the score is tied with two out and runners on 1st and 3rd but because Taylor bobbled the throw, Arozarena tried to score and after tumbling to the ground would have been dead meat if one of two things had happened. Max Muncy could have made a better throw, he knew Arozarena had fallen down, the play was in front of him but his throw was hurried and on the 1st base side of the plate. Will Smith could have caught the ball and easily tagged Arozarena but he didn’t. When I first saw the play at normal speed I thought that Smith had caught the ball but that when he wheeled to tag the runner the ball had flown out of his glove, it wasn’t until they replayed it in slow mo that I realized that Smith had simply pulled his glove to soon in anticipation of having to tag a runner that wasn’t there.
I can’t even imagine the thoughts that were going through Arozarena’s head as he tumbled to the ground, thinking he’d really screwed up, only to find out as he gathered his feet back under him that he was going to score the winning run. In the blink of an eye he went from a goat to a hero. And now the series is tied at 2 – 2.
Kenley Jansen didn’t do much wrong in the 9th last night except get to much of the plate on a 1 – 2 to a hitter who might have chased something out of the strike zone. A broken bat single in – between two outs. It made sense to pitch around the hottest hitter on the planet and all he had to do was get the worst player on the Rays out, but on a 1 – 2 count he got to much of the plate, and Brett Phillips became part of the small Tampa Bay World Series folklore.
This game had so many hitters come through with big moments it was insane. The Dodgers scored all seven runs with two outs. The Rays just kept coming back. This is what a baseball dogfight looks like, and it was beautiful.
Buehler trending toward a masterpiece
At the beginning of the postseason MLB listed the top 50 players to watch in the postseason and for some reason the ace of the team most favored to win the World Series didn’t make the cut. Evidently the list was made of players who had more successful 2020 seasons and not based on any historical data on postseason performance. Pitchers like Ryu/Kenta made the list but the ace of the Dodgers did not. We will take a look at all 50 players that MLB felt were more important than Walker after the postseason is over.
Part of it was understandable, because of his blister, Buehler had barely pitched in Sept, but on the other hand he had barely pitched so that he could pitch in the postseason where Walker has historically had great success.
Coming into the 2020 postseasn this is the historical record for Buehler. Outside of his first two starts he had been a dominant
Year Series Opp Rslt IP H ER BB SO Pit GSc 2018 NLDS g3 ATL L5-6 5.0 2 5 3 7 77 47 2018 NLCS g3 MIL L0-4 7.0 6 4 1 8 100 56 2018 NLCS g7 MIL W5-1 4.2 6 1 0 7 73 55 2018 WS g3 BOS W3-2 7.0 2 0 0 7 108 80 2019 NLDS g1 WSN W6-0 6.0 1 0 3 8 100 75 2019 NLDS g5 WSN L3-7 6.2 4 1 3 7 117 66Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2020.
We all remember the brilliant game he threw against the 2019 World Champion Nationals with Kershaw getting the last out in the 7th to preserve the lead, only to let it slip away in the 8th.
In 2020 his postseason work has improved with each game as his blister has improved. The control issues that had plagued his first three starts disappeared in the NLCS game six. Working on four days rest, we can expect Walker to keep his trend going and give the Dodgers a masterpiece in game three.
Year Series Date Opp Rslt IP H ER BB SO HR Pit GSc 2020 NLWC g1 Sep30 MIL W4-2 4.0 3 2 2 8 1 73 54 2020 NLDS g1 Oct6 SDP W5-1 4.0 2 1 4 8 0 95 58 2020 NLCS g1 Oct12 ATL L1-5 5.0 3 1 5 7 1 100 59 2020 NLCS g6 Oct17 ATL W3-1 6.0 7 0 0 6 0 89 64Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2020.
The Dodgers are 6 – 4 in postseason starts by Walker and will hopefully be 7 – 4 after game three. Charlie Morton has historically been a big game pitcher and is already part of Dodger postseason lore having started game 7 in 2017. Morton has made three game 7 starts in the 21st century and won all three giving up one run combined in those three starts. Overall he has made 12 postseason starts and has only been bad in two of them, the other ten he has given up two runs or less. His teams are 8 – 4 in his postseason starts.
Game six should be a close game, eventually decided by the bullpen. The Rays had to use all of their best relief pitchers on Wednesday night to keep the Dodgers at bay, but the Rays have yet to see the well-rest Treinen/Graterol/Jansen. That could be a key component of this game as the Dodgers are a group of smart hitters who might thrive as they see more and more of the Tampa relief pitchers.
The Kids Aren’t Alright
With David Price opting out and no other options the Dodgers are trying to win a World Championship by cobbling together important games from two rookies who had tremendous regular season success but it isn’t working.
Tony Gonsolin has made three appearances so far and each time has left the Dodgers behind the eight ball when he’s left the game. They were able to come back from his troubles in the NLCS game 7 because of all the relief pitchers who followed him along with great defense and timely offense but Tampa has better pitching and four runs should be able to beat this Tampa team if the pitching does their job.
Series Opp Rslt Inngs IP H ER BB SO HR ERA
NLCS g2 ATL L7-8 GS-5 4.1 3 5 3 7 1 10.38
NLCS g7 ATL W4-3 2-4 2.0 2 2 3 1 1 9.95
WS g2 TBR L4-6 GS-2 1.1 1 1 1 1 1 9.39
7.2 6 8 7 9 3 9.39
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original TableGenerated 10/22/2020.
Dustin May had a great start to his 2020 postseason with three straight scoreless performances but has now given up eight hits in his last three outing while only getting 9 outs along with five runs.
Series Opp Rslt Inngs IP H ER BB SO ERA
NLDS g1 SDP W5-1 5-6 2.0 0 0 0 3 0.00
NLDS g3 SDP W12-3 GS-1 1.0 0 0 1 1 0.00
NLCS g1 ATL L1-5 7-8 1.2 1 0 1 2 0.00
NLCS g5 ATL W7-3 GS-2 2.0 3 1 2 3 1.35
NLCS g7 ATL W4-3 GS-1 1.0 1 1 2 1 2.35
WS g2 TBR L4-6 4-5 1.1 4 3 0 1 5.00
12.1 12 6 7 12 4.38
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original TableGenerated 10/22/2020.
With the series now guaranteed to go at least five games, if they lose one more game they will have to have another bullpen game.
You have Buehler lined up for game three
Urias for game four
Kershaw is going to have to pitch game five on four days rest
Game six is next Tuesday, Buehler is pitching on Friday, so he is either going to go on three days rest or the bullpen brigade will need to pitch game six leaving Buehler/Urias for game seven. If they do go with a bullpen game for game six will they go to the well one more time with the some combo of Gonsolin/May to start the game or try a different option like Alex Wood who has who looked extremely good so far this postseason.
It would be prudent for the Dodgers to win this in five games because otherwise we are probably looking at another game seven.
Game One – Destroyer of Narratives
Past performance does not indicate future performance
Narrative One – They said Mookie Betts couldn’t hit in the world series because he had this triple stat line in the 2018 World Series of – 217/308/391- in 26 plate appearances. In the first World Series game of 2020, Mookie had two hits, walked once, stole two bases in one inning and was the spark plug in this game, just as he was during his during his HOF caliber career. The best part of Mookie Betts stealing two bases in the key fifth inning was the graphic that Fox showed which was that Babe Ruth was the last player to steal two bases in World Series back in 1921. While looking that up, I just found out they played eight games in the 1921 World Series and the NYY lost to the NYG in eight games. What the hell? I also found out via Jon Weisman that Babe Ruth ended the 1926 World Series by being thrown out trying to steal 2nd base. When looking up that game I noticed that Grover Cleveland Alexander pitched the 8th and 9th innings which made me recall an old timey movie about a HOF pitcher who was kind of a drunk who saved the day in the World Series, and Clye Alt tweeted this to me
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsReagan starred in a film about Grover Cleveland Alexander. "The Winning Team". Saw it a long, long time ago.
— Clyle Alt (@clylealt) October 21, 2020
which turned out to be the movie I was thinking about. How about that?
Narrative Two – They said Cody Bellinger struggled in the World Series and they were correct, coming into this World Series Cody had 45 plate appearances and an OPS below .500. He had been horrible, but in his 2nd at-bat of this World Series he started the scoring with a monster home run and also made another home run robbing catch in LCF, giving the Dodgers four home run robbing catches in this postseason. I love Globe Life Field.
Narrative Three – Clayton Kershaw hasn’t had success in the World Series. The problem with this narrative is that most of it is based on his collapse in game five of the 2017 World Series which we now know was the game the Astros drum banged their way to huge comebacks. They simply have to throw that game out, and when you do you still have his game one start against Boston where he was clobbered. So, the narrative was kind of true, but against the Rays, Clayton was almost perfect, the only blip a solo home run.
<How good was Clayton last night? Historically good.https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsFrom @PaulHembo: Clayton Kershaw’s swing-and-miss wasn’t just significant for him personally, it was significant historically: In Game 1, Kershaw became the only pitcher to generate a 50% swing-and-miss rate in a World Series start. (Pitch-by-pitch data available since 1988)
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) October 21, 2020
Here we go again
For the third time in four years the Dodgers are one series away from becoming World Champions and this is the year they do it. They won’t be playing the cheating Astros, they won’t be playing a better Red Sox team, they will be playing a very good Tampa Bay team, but it wouldn’t have mattered who they are playing this year.
This year, they would have beat anyone.
Am I high after coming back from being down 3 – 1 against the Braves?
Yes!!!
Am I about to write my most optimistic column ever about the Dodgers?
Yes, yes I am
The Dodgers are going to win this series, they are going to be 2020 World Champions. It isn’t because Tampa is an inferior team, it is because eventually when you knock on the door this many times, the breaks eventually go your way. I won’t be dissuaded from this feeling even if the Dodgers lose game 1, and game 2, and game 3.
It won’t be easy but when this is all said and done, I’ll be writing a column about all the great moments of the 2020 World Series.
This is your 1981
Congratulations long suffering Dodger fans. You earned this.
Multiple big moments add up to another World Series appearance
The best part of a stressful postseason series are the big moments that you hope will ultimately lead to moving on and while the Dodgers had plenty of big moments against the Braves, it still came down to getting the last out with the tying run at the plate every every single at-bat in the 9th inning.
To get to that moment the Dodgers did something no LAD had ever done, come back from a 3 – 1 deficit and they did it in style. Hitting key home runs and making four definitive defensive plays.
Game Five:
Down 2- -0 with runners on 2nd and 3rd with only one out the Braves looked ready to unload on Joe Kelly and put the game out of reach. Swanson hit a sinking line drive to RF that had all the earmarks of trouble, but Mookie Betts charged in and made a stunning shoestring catch which turned into a double play because of a baserunning snafu from Marcell Ozuna who left 3rd to soon giving the Dodgers an inning ending double play thus snuffing out the rally.
Corey Seager would blast a home run cutting the lead to 2 – 1.
Still down 2 – 1 in the top of the 6th Mookie Betts led off with a single but two outs later he was still out there with cleanup hitter Max Muncy coming up. Max took six pitches without swinging and got on base. Will Smith following his lead took five pitches without swinging. At this point Will Smith the pitcher had thrown 11 pitches without the Dodgers swinging once. On the 12 pitch Will Smith hit one of the most important home runs in postseason Dodger history and the Dodgers never trailed again in the game.
By the 9th inning the Dodgers had a 7 – 3 lead and Dave Roberts gave the ball to Kenley Jansen. The last time Kenley had pitched in the 9th inning it was game two against the Padres in which he was hammered and left Dodger fans with zero confidence he could be their postseason closer. With bated breath they watched Kenley strike out the side and close out the game. That Kenley Jansen inning more than any other performance in game five gave Dodger fans some confidence that they could win this series because Jansen was back.
Game Six:
Corey Seager and Justin Turner went back to back in the first inning, and Cody Bellinger rocketed a single into RF to give the Dodgers an early 3 – 0 lead. Walker Buehler who hadn’t gotten more than twelve outs in any 2020 postseason start threw six brilliant innings and after six, the Dodgers still lead 3 – 0.
Blake Treinen came in for Buehler in the 7th and immediately put the Dodgers lead and series in jepoardy giving up a triple and double before striking out Freddie Freeman. With two out and a runner on 2nd with one run already in, Marcell Ozuna trying to atone for his running miscue lofted a deep fly ball that appeared headed for either a game tying home run or extra bases, but Mookie Betts making his 2nd great play in two games leaped at the last moment, bounced into the fence but had the ball and the fate of the Braves in his glove.
With a 3 – 1 lead, Dave Roberts went once again to Kenley Jansen and once again Kenley put the Braves down in order, and the series was now tied at three games.
Game 7
The Dodgers went with the rookies Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin, and it didn’t turn out very well. They combined for only nine outs, giving up three runs and Blake Treinen entered the game with the score 3 – 1, runners on 1st and 2nd and only one out. A wild pitch put runners on 2nd and 3rd, things looked dire indeed. Markakis slapped a ground ball to Justin Turner who went home and they had Swanson in a run down. Trying to get the out as soon as possible to keep the runner from advancing Justin Turner made super man dive at Swanson and just nicked his him for the out. Without wasting a moment, Turner was able to throw to 3rd where Seager waited to tag out Austin Riley who ill advisiely had tried to advance at the last second. It was another inning ending double play started by a great defensive play by a Dodger and finished with a base running blunder by the Braves. That play may have saved the Dodger season if not for…..
Mookie Betts had already made two game changing plays in games five and six but maybe nothing was as important or as beautiful as the play in made in game seven. With the Braves still in front 3 – 2 in the top of the 5th the nicest guy in baseball Freddie Freeman lofted a soaring fly ball to RF. Watching this on TV, it was simply one of the most beautiful plays you will ever see. Mookie drifted back appearing to track it the whole while but he kept going back and back until he jumped at the perfect moment and with the glove clearly above the fence took the home run away from Freeman. Blake Treinen was pitching, and once again Mookie Betts had saved him. The Dodgers were still behind 3 – 2 but you didn’t get the sense they were going to lose this game, the only question was how would they win this game.
In the bottom of the sixth Kiké Hernández answered part of the question. On the 9th pitch of an epic at-bat, Kiké added another NLCS home run to his resume crushing the ball to left field and giving the Dodgers the tie at 3 – 3.
Julio Urias entered the game in the 7th and was faced with shutting down the Braves until the Dodgers could score one more run. Julio Urias didn’t blink in his big moment getting all nine outs when each batter either represented the tying or winning runs. It was a performance not seen by a Dodger relief pitcher since Steve Howe in the 1981 World Series. His job changed from keeping the score tied to pitching for the win when 2019 MVP Cody Bellinger hit a massive home run in the bottom of the 7th to give the Dodgers the 4 – 3 that Urias would never surrender.
And that is how the Dodgers got into the 2020 World Series.
Dynamic Diminutive Duo
HOF Joe Morgan passed away today joining Jimmy Wynn who passed away on March 26th, 2020. I wrote this story about the two of them way back in 2007 for TrueBlueLA.
Sometimes when you do research for a story you get thrown a curve, or find out things that pleasantly surprise. I knew going in that Jimmy Wynn and Joe Morgan were two of the best diminutive players in baseball and that both started out as Colt 45s. What I didn’t know was that Jimmy Wynn entered the major leagues as a shortstop. In July/1963 he started at shortstop for his 1st 13 games before being moved to CF. He played 8 more games at SS in 63 but all of them late in the game double switches. So after starting at SS for the 1st 13 games of his career, the Toy Cannon would never start another game at SS. Joe Morgan didn’t get the call until Sept, so they never were able to showcase what might have been an incredible keystone combo.
I haven’t purchased a baseball card for over 20 years, but when I collected cards, the back of the baseball card is what you read when you reviewed a players career. In 1968 that was about all you had unless you kept a copy of the baseball register. Those numbers were the reference points for discussions between impassioned kids and adults when determining who was the better player. Looking at Joe Morgan’s stats you would have been hard pressed to argue that he was the best middle infielder in the NL when this card was created. The biggest statistic of omission from the back of the card was of course walks, and walks is what these players did better then anyone else from the time they both became regulars in 1965. From 1965-1971 these two teammates walked 1173 times eclipsing any other teammate combination.
Thanks to Baseball Prospectus and their translated statistic EQA, we can go back and look at these players a little closer. From 1965-1967 Joe Morgan had the highest EQA for a middle infielder in baseball. His streak came to an end in 1968 when he missed most of the season. His teammate Jimmy Wynn, came in 2nd to Willie Mays in 1965, had a down year in 1966 and then bounced back to be the best CF in baseball in 1967. From 1965 to 1967 the Houston Astros had one of the best duos in baseball and they were only starting out as neither had turned 26 yet.
From 1965 – 1977, Joe Morgan and Jimmy Wynn walked their way to greatness. It is what separated them from their peers. Joe Morgan ranks 1st in this list and if you peruse the list, you won’t find another middle infielder until Rico Petrocelli at number 27, and he played ½ his games at 3rd base. Pete Rose is on this list but he stopped playing 2nd base by 1970. My 1st inclination was that because Morgan & Wynn were short, they parlayed the small strike zone into all those walks, however that list is full of big guys, not small guys. Morgan and Wynn were unique to baseball. This list explains how unique. For players with > then 200 stolen bases, with > 200 home runs, with > 1000 walks they are the only two players since integration who are 5’9 or smaller on this list. If you looked at the same list but only used the time period that Jimmy Wynn played baseball from 1965 – 1977, he would be the ONLY person on the list. He was the preeminent power, speed, and patient hitter in baseball during his tenure. Those are hard tools to find. That the two players who had these unique but valuable tools were both raised in the Astro farm system and became regulars in 1965 is what intrigued me about this duo.
Several months ago, someone over at Dodger Thoughts wondered what a team would look like that was 5’9 or under. I did some research and that will be a story for another day. But what I did find made me laugh. My favorite player, and the player who I hated and respected most, sat at the top of the leaderboard. Yup, since integration, based on OPS+, the Toy Cannon and Joe Morgan have been the two best players in baseball 5’9 or under.
Since he was the catalyst of the Big Red Machine I tried to hate Joe Morgan but I enjoyed his game to much. When he was traded from the Astro’s to the Reds I didn’t give it much thought. I had no idea at the time of the deal that he was already a special ballplayer. After his season ending injury in 1968, his EQA dropped below 300 for the next three years and I guess the Astro’s felt his best had already come. They were of course very wrong as he went on to become quite possibly the best 2nd baseman in history. Jimmy Wynn had alternated great seasons with bad seasons from 1970, so the Astro’s got tired of that and dealt him in 1973 after a down year. He of course responded to have one of the best Los Angeles Dodger seasons ever by a CF, and helped the young 1974 team into the World Series.
Joe Morgan is disliked by many for his work as an announcer. It is with the modern day use of baseball statistics that has shown how great a player he was. As a ballplayer he was the perfect sabermetric player. His combination of power, speed, patience, defense, base-running skills, may have been the best of his generation. Jimmy Wynn during his on years was every bit as good a player. They both posted 6 years with an OPS+ > 140. Morgan’s OPS+ reached higher and he had the longer career but from 1965 – 1977 these players were not only the best small players in the game, they were two of the best players in the game.
A Villain comes forth
Every great baseball rivalry needs two things. A competitive team, and a villain who is good enough that he inspires some type of fear. For the past ten years the Dodger / Giant villain was Madison Bumgarner who played the role perfectly but his time as the Dodger villain are now in the rear-view mirror.
Last night, one time Dodger Manny Machado gave notice that he would like to be the new villain as the Dodger / Padres start a rivalry that should get intense over the next five years. He is in the same division, he plays for a team that is clearly on the upswing, he has superstar talent, and boy does he appear to hate the Dodgers.
Machado showed more emotion in game two of the NLDS last night then Dodger fans saw in his half season of work including all of the 2018 postseason while wearing Dodger blue. From the bat flip that put the first run on the board, to the swearing tirade at new Dodger hero Brusdar Graterol. I’m not sure if Machado was simply trying to rally his youngish overmatched team, or if he really hates the Dodgers but his buffoonish efforts last night, entrenched how Dodger fans feel about him.
Machado could have added a punctuation mark to the game last night coming up as the winning run in the 9th inning but instead of a game winning hit, he battled Joe Kelly for a walk. Manny ended the night with a draw, he didn’t fail in his big moment, but he also didn’t deliver on any of the five strikes he saw.
The Dodgers will clearly win this series, but the Padres have put the Dodgers on notice that they won’t be coasting to any more NL Western Divison titles over the next few years. This team is loaded with young controllable talent, and while the pitching was thin for this series, it shouldn’t be headed into 2021 as their young guns start showing up in more meaningful roles.
I’m looking forward to more games like last night, though I could really do without the profanity tirade by Machado. We have learned one thing during this pandemic, baseball players say fuck quite a bit.
Dodgers needed this
I’m not talking about the montrous home run that Cody Bellinger hit, I’m not talking about the incredible catch Cody Bellinger made, I’m not talking about the clutch hitting that gave the Dodgers six runs. I’m not talking about the great five innings that Kershaw gave them.
I’m talking about Kenley Jansen failing to close the 9th inning with a three run lead. We all knew it was going to happen, we all knew that Dave Roberts would trust Kenley Jansen in a clutch situation in the postseason even though it was very apparent that this version of Kenley Jansen should not be tasked with being the closer on a World Championship quest.
I think even Dave Roberts knew it, but if we know one thing about Dave Roberts handling of pitchers in the postseason, he lets loyalty cloud judgement.
That performance by Kenley should have removed those clouds and Dodger fans should consider themselves lucky that it happened right now and not in a more important situation where the consequences could have made the difference between World Championship and going home once again.
This version of the Dodgers has one Achilles heal and that was Kenley Jansen. Things are going to get tougher from this point on and asking Kenley to get Tatis/Machado/Acuna/Freeman/Ozuna/Stanton/Judge/Voit/LeMahieu/Arozarena out in a close game in the 9th might work once or twice if the lead is big enough but probably not a recipe for continued success. Kenley Jansen has been one of the great Dodger closers, but all things come to an end, and I’m afraid his time has come. This isn’t a reaction to last night, this is a reaction to how he has pitched for a month. It isn’t just about the lack of velocity, it is about the deadly combination of location and velocity. Without velocity he has to have pinpoint command, and he simply doesn’t.
What does that leave the Dodgers? I really don’t know. Joe Kelly got the final out but I’m not sure he’s the answer. I’m not sure Graterol is the answer, or Treinen. As far fetched as it may seem, maybe it is Victor Gonzales. We will find out soon enough who Dave Roberts thinks it is the next time a save situation develops, but I’m pretty sure it won’t be Dodger legend Kenley Jansen.
Dodgers, Yesterday and Today 