Too much patience or too little?
Baseball writer Craig Minami made the following comment in a TrueBlueLa comment section last night. It is the mantra of the common sense baseball fan who can look at a team from afar and realize that team building takes place over twelve months with no offseason.
The team you see in December is not the one you will see in Spring Training
The team you see in January is not the one you will see in Spring Training
The team you see when camp opens is not the one that will be here on Opening Day.
The team you see when camp opens is not the one that will be here on Opening Day.
The team you see on Opening Day is not the team you will see in July.
The team you see at the trade deadline is not the one you see in September.
The team you see in the November is not the team you will see in Spring Training.
Even when the team has completed the roster by Sept 1st, the postseason guggling keeps the guessing game going as management had to decide which of its many weapons are the correct ones to use for each postseason series. That is how Caleb Ferguson ended up watching the World Series instead of participating in it.
They say that patience was at one time considered a virtue, but Dodger fans might be done with patience if they ever had it at all. Thirty years isn’t that long of a time between Championships when thirty teams are trying to win it every year, but it is a very long time when you have the history of the Los Angeles Dodgers and the financial wherewithal of the current ownership. When you add in that the rival Giants have managed to win three World Championships in the last ten years the bit bites hard.
It is because of this drought that many Dodger fans are feeling impatient even though they have been to the World Series two years in a row. They see the Dodger roster and are underwhelmed considering that the Dodgers signed only one significant free agent while trading or losing multiple assets off their current roster. Dodger fans don’t know the interworking of management but on the surface, it would appear none of the high marquee free agents were pursued, none of the mid-level free agents were pursued, and as stated earlier, only one free agent was even signed. They aren’t keen on the fact that ownership has now decided to get in line and keep the payroll budget under the luxory tax.
The fact that the Dodgers — the Los Angeles Dodgers — are treating it like a hard cap this winter is infuriating. I was OK with it last year — I even wrote a bit about it. But the stipulation in my mind was that they were resetting the tax so they could spend a little more freely. Not necessarily a $250-300 million payroll (which they could afford), but to at least not be scared of the defacto salary cap
Dustin thinks the Dodgers should spend. Most Dodger fans think the Dodgers should spend. Harper beckons, he beckons hard.
I understand the sentiment. My own tagline at TrueBlueLA says “Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen” That, however, has never applied to baseball. I’m very patient if I believe in the management. I can’t say I believe in the current management because of the brain drain over the past two years. Andrew Friedman still sits on the top, but so many others have gone. One can only hope they have been replaced with top-notch talent but we won’t know until we see how their decision making works out.
The previous iterations of management under the new ownership tried winning with the largest payroll in baseball history. They won, but they didn’t win the Championship and none of those teams really seemed capable of winning a championship unless Kershaw made a Bumgarner run. He never did. The team never advanced into the World Series while carrying those $250 million dollar payrolls. It wasn’t until 2017 I felt the Dodgers had a team that I would have bet on, and they came oh so close. So close.
I’ve always enjoyed the idea of a hard cap not because I care about saving money for ownership but simply because I like the idea of winning because you are smarter than the other teams not because you can outspend them on a roster. Being smarter doesn’t happen overnight. That type of winning takes time because it involves upgrading your whole system. The best scouts, the best analysts, the best minor league coaches, the best international infrastructure. The best everywhere. To do this you simply pay them more because MLB has historically been cheap when it comes to these areas. I think the Dodgers have tried to do this and we can see the results.
However
Boston is probably World Champions because when no one was bidding on JD Martinez last winter they said we can’t not sign him at this price and gobbled him up. The Dodgers meanwhile played peek a boo with the luxury tax by moving payroll to the Braves and taking back Matt Kemp. Matt was interesting at first but by the end of the year, he was exactly the payroll anchor that we felt he was when he was acquired. JD meanwhile led the explosive Boston offense to the World Championship. The Dodgers celebrated by being under the luxury cap and saving millions of dollars for ownership. Woo Hoo
The Tiger are certainly World Champions because they added the contract of Justin Verlander in the summer of 2017. The Dodgers added Yu Darvish. A free agent to be, so no future costs. I was certainly on the get Yu bandwagon. I was wrong. I wish Dodger management had not been as wrong as I was. Houston management chose Verlander, the Dodger management chose Yu. Houston won the 2017 World Championship, the Dodgers did not. It is usually so much more complex than that, but in this case, probably not.
None of that is to say the Dodgers should be in on Harper or Machado. A year ago I would have drooled at the thought of adding Manny Machado for a decade to the Dodgers. Having watched him play, I don’t drool anymore, I spit. I have zero interest in watching Manny Machado play for the Dodgers. Harper would seem like a perfect fit given we traded our right fielder. Given how many long term deals I’ve seen become albatrosses I’m not usually in favor of any deal over four years. If I knew the Dodgers would do everything in their power to sign Mike Trout when he becomes a free agent in two years I’d walk away, but not knowing that, I’d be in on Harper. Very in.
Look back at the Russell Martin Dodger career via TRUEBLUELA archives
The rise and fall of Russell Martin’s Dodger career came just as Dodger blog www.truebluela was beginning to ascend into relevancy. Andrew Grant headed the blog when Russell Martin became the starting catcher in May of 2006 but the first article he wrote about Martin didn’t come until Aug 25th, 2006.
Andrew Grant – Aug 25th, 2006 – Will Russell Martin Pull A LoDuca?
Andrew was concerned with the workload being placed upon the rookie. It was a concern that would come up every season that Martin was the Dodgers starting catcher.
Eric Stephen – Jan 6th, 2009 -The Curious Case of Russell Martin
Eric took a look at what arbitration might hold for Russell Martin
The Dodgers have a wonderful dilemma. Their quandary is to figure out just what to pay their most rare commodity: a young, all-star catcher in Russell Martin. Unlike the relatively straightforward cases of Andre Ethier and Jonathan Broxton — in which comparable players can be researched and a rough idea about salary can be deduced — Russell Martin is a very unique player. His comparable players aren’t really comparable at all due to very different circumstances.
Eric Stephen – Feb 8th, 2009 – Martin Has a Little Captain in Him
Martin has set himself apart as a leader of this club. He took over as the team’s union player representative — from Scott Proctor!!! — so he’s capable of handling extra responsibilities. He’s got a new girlfriend. He’s doing Yoga. He’s one of the best catchers in baseball.
Phil Gurnee – May 1st, 2009 -Where in the World is Russell Martin?
I was wondering what had happened to the young catcher who by the all-star game of 2008 appeared headed for greatness.
During the spring of 2008 I mentioned that I thought Russell Martin could be a leading candidate for the MVP. My rational was that Martin was loved by the media, the best player on the Dodgers, and that the Dodgers might win the pennant. At the all-star game Martin was holding up his end of the bargain and I wrote this story about the great tradition of Dodger catchers after watching Martin display his all around skills in the all star game by catching 10 innings in the epic battle.
Meercatjohn – May 18th, 2009 – Russell Martin Home Run Contest
By May 18th, 2009 Russell Martin had yet to hit a home run so for fun I started a community contest. Shockingly he would not hit his first home run until June 20th. None of the entrants picked June.
Eric Stephen – July 2nd, 2009 -The Lonesome Death Of Russell Martin’s Power
Russell Martin seemed prime to join the pantheon of great Dodger catchers. In his first three seasons, he made two All-Star teams, won a Silver Slugger award, and even mixed in a Gold Glove for good measure. Nobody has caught more innings than Martin since he made his debut in May 2006, and from 2006-2008 Martin had the fifth-highest OPS+ among all catchers in baseball.
David Young – March 31st, 2010 – 2010 Player Profile: Russell Martin, Backstop Bounceback?
Did you know that before the Dodgers drafted Russell Martin in the 17th round of the 2002 draftas an infielder, the Montreal Expos of his native Quebec also drafted him as an infielder in the 35th round of the 2000 draft?
Eric Stephen – May 20th, 2010 – Martin Sets Club Record for Leadoff Starts at Catcher
Russell Martin will set the LA Dodger record tonight for most starts batting leadoff by a catcher, with 34. Paul LoDuca is the only other Dodger catcher to bat leadoff in the last 52 years. Since 1952, only three catchers have started more games batting leadoff than Martin: Jason Kendall (453), Butch Wynegar (48), and Craig Biggio (35).
Eric Stephen – Jan 11th, 2010 – TBLA Rewind: Dodgers in The Bush Years: 2005-2008
This was Eric looking back on Jan 11, 2010 at the Bush Years. Martin was a predominant piece of those teams and he gets more than a few sentences.
Martin had a fine season, establishing himself as one of the best catchers in the game, hitting .293/.374/.469, a 113 OPS+. He fell one HR shy of becoming only the second catcher ever with a 20/20 season (Ivan Rodriguez, 1999). Martin’s 21 SB were the most ever by a Dodger catcher.
Trouble with the curve
Wasn’t much of a baseball movie but it could be the title of Russell Martin’s 2018 season.
Eddy Almaguer of a http://www.propsectslive reviewed the trade last week that brought Russell Martin back to Los Angeles in exchange for Ronny Brito and Andrew Sopko. Eddy broke down the Martin 2018 season and found that the reason for such a horrible season was that Martin had trouble with the curve.
While his defense is still passable, it’s the bat that really drags down Martin’s profile. He slashed .194/.338/.325 last year over 352 plate appearances. He was much more passive, swinging less inside and outside of the zone. The biggest culprit, however, became Martin’s complete inability to hit a breaking ball. He had a .076 AVG and .114 SLG against breaking pitches, which were 31 percent of the pitches he saw . While he wasn’t a darling against fastballs, either, it was a more respectable .249 AVG and .438 SLG. Martin’s saving grace remains his 12 percent walk rate which bumped up to 15 percent last season thanks to his increased passivity.
Well, to be honest, it wasn’t just the curve, it was every type of breaking ball.
I have no idea how Martin will perform in 2019, but Jeff Sullivan points out that Martin wasn’t nearly as bad as his offensive line suggests which is good because in a vacuum that triple stat line is repugnant (194/.338/.325). Catchers were an offensive drag on baseball last year so compared to his peers, Martin is still an average catcher.
Offensively, Martin has ranked 17th out of 44. Defensively, he’s ranked 15th out of 44. Martin has been one of eight catchers to rank in the upper half in each statistic. He can still hit a little bit, and he can still receive a little bit. Everything’s getting worse, but he’s declining from a very high bar.
Even an average offensive catcher is still a huge downgrade at the position when you consider that Grandal had been one of the top five offensive catchers in baseball since becoming the Dodgers everyday catcher.
The Dodger now have two catchers who do two things very well. They can both take a walk which allows their OBA to make up for their extremely low batting averages. Barnes and Martin are also still considered good framers, but again, Grandal was one of the best framers in baseball. As noted in the links above, Martin has not caught more than eighty games in the past two years so I’d expect that Martin/Barnes will be more of a tandem than either being asked to catch 100 plus games. In 2017, Austin Barnes was what Russell Martin had been when he was a Dodger, an athletic fleet-footed catcher with good power, great on-base skills, and a solid reputation as a catcher. In 2018 they converged to be the same catcher but that wasn’t a good thing.
Without a trade for Realmuto or Cervelli, this is the stop-gap move that will need to be the bridge to either Will Smith or Keibert Ruiz. It won’t make the Dodgers better in 2019 unless Austin Barnes finds his 2017 mojo and turns back into one of the bright young catchers which earn him the starting job and puts the arrival of the prospects on hold. If Barnes shows he is more 2018 Barnes instead of 2017 Barnes it doesn’t clog up the position for when either or both of the prospects are ready.
Dodgers 2015/2016 IFA class has been trade fodder
Working off this tweet from @futuredodgers
From the Dodgers’ huge 2015-16 IFA class:
Yadier Alvarez (16MM)
**Yusniel Diaz (15.5MM)
Omar Estevez (6MM)
Starling Heredia (2.6MM)
**Yordan Alvarez (2MM)
**Ronny Brito (2MM)
**Oneil Cruz (950K)
**Christopher Arias (500K)
Carlos Rincon (350K)**No longer in the organization
— Future Dodgers (@FutureDodgers) January 11, 2019
None of those players have seen any major league time yet, and only Omar Estevez looks like someone who might see time with the Dodgers but I’d bet on him also being traded by this time next year.
Let’s take a look at that class in detail.
Yadier Alvarez – still in the organization, has gone from the number one pitching prospect to a relief pitcher with control issues with the ball in his hand, and in the dugout. Still, his stuff alone keeps him in the prospect world, and MLB Pipeline has him at 11 now.
Yusniel Diaz – the major piece in the Machado deal. Manny had a fractured time with the Dodgers and ultimately failed bigly in the postseason. Diaz is now ranked as the 52nd top prospect in baseball for the Orioles.
Omar Estevez – one of the few minor league players who has played two full season of A+ ball before the age of 21. He’s not climbing the ladder but at least he’s not falling down the ladder either. His repeat season was good, not great, but he was actually still young for the league even though he was a repeater. Might have a major league career, not very high on prospect lists.
Starling Heredia – the man with all the tools but evidently can’t hit. Looking more like James Baldwin than anything close to a major league baseball player.
Yordan Alvarez – traded for Josh Fields before he ever played for the Dodgers. Was moving up the Houston prospect list and is currently ranked as the 42nd best prospect in baseball.
Ronny Brito – just traded for Russell Martin. He was ranked as the Dodgers 23rd top prospect by MLB Pipeline.
Oneil Cruz – traded to the Pirates in 2017 for Tony Watson. Cruz made huge strides last year and is now the Pirates 4th best prospect according to MLB Pipeline.
Christopher Arias – oops, he was released.
Carlos Rincon – still in the Dodger organization. Carlos may simply hate cold weather or love California. He struggled mightily for the Great Lake Loons, but once he was promoted to Rancho, he exploded with a 1.245 OPS in 110 at-bats.
June 20th is the date to remember
I can’t get hung up on Austin Barnes as the starting catcher. Barnes will either grow into the role and be more than adequate, or the Dodgers replace him externally or internally. I’m betting on internally.
HOF Pudge Rodriguez was twenty years old on June 20th, 1991 when he started his major league career. It just so happens that Pudge was playing minor league ball in AA for Tulsa when he was brought up by the Rangers to be their starting catcher for the next twelve seasons. Does Tulsa sound familiar? It should because that is where Keibert Ruiz played last summer as a 19-year-old.
As you can see from the minor league history of Pudge, he never hit much in the minors. His receiving skills were so prodigious that his defense got him to the major leagues before his bat was ready. When Pudge was in AA in 1991 he was 5 years younger than the average AA player.
Year Age AgeDif Tm Lg Lev Aff PA BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS 1989 17 -4.4 Gastonia SALL A TEX 418 21 58 .238 .278 .355 .633 1990 18 -4.6 PortCharlotte FLOR A+ TEX 432 12 50 .287 .316 .377 .693 1991 19 -9.5 TEX AL MLB TEX 288 5 42 .264 .276 .354 .630 1991 19 -5.0 Tulsa TL AA TEX 188 6 27 .274 .294 .389 .683 MLB MLB MLB MLB MLB 10270 513 1474 .296 .334 .464 .798 Mino Mino Mino Mino Minors 1063 40 140 .265 .296 .372 .668 AA ( AA ( AA ( AA ( Minors 198 7 28 .272 .294 .386 .680 A+ ( A+ ( A+ ( A+ ( Minors 447 12 54 .286 .314 .381 .695
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/10/2019.
Keibert Ruiz is the Dodgers number one prospect. Keibert Ruiz is the number one catching prospect in baseball. He’s a switch hitter who makes constant contact. When Ruiz was in AA last summer he was 4.9 years younger than the average AA player. The Dodgers didn’t have to be so aggressive in promoting Keibert up the minor league ladder but they were. Don’t be surprised if Keibert is the Dodgers starting catcher by August of 2019.
Year Age AgeDif Tm Lg Lev PA BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS 2015 16 -2.3 Dodgers DOSL FRk 159 8 15 .300 .340 .387 .726 2016 17 2 Teams 2 Lgs Rk 245 15 27 .374 .412 .527 .939 2016 17 -3.6 Ogden PION Rk 206 12 23 .354 .393 .503 .896 2016 17 -2.8 Dodgers ARIZ Rk 39 3 4 .485 .513 .667 1.179 2017 18 2 Teams 2 Lgs A-A+ 411 25 53 .316 .361 .452 .813 2017 18 -4.7 RanchoCucamonga CALL A+ 160 7 23 .315 .344 .497 .840 2017 18 -3.3 GreatLakes MIDW A 251 18 30 .317 .372 .423 .795 2018 19 -4.9 Tulsa TL AA 415 26 33 .268 .328 .401 .728 2018 19 -3.4 Glendale AZFL Fal 56 6 2 .286 .357 .306 .663 Mino Mino Mino Mino Minors 1230 74 128 .309 .357 .441 .798 All All All All 1286 80 130 .308 .357 .435 .792
Rk ( Rk ( Rk ( Rk ( Minors 245 15 27 .374 .412 .527 .939
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/10/2019.
No Harper, Kluber, Realmuto, Grandal, Wood, Puig, or Kemp
Which means that right now, Alex Verdugo is your starting right fielder, and Austin Barnes is your starting catcher. I don’t think Dodger fans were expecting that when news broke that the Dodgers had traded solid rotation piece Alex Wood, fan favorite Yasiel Puig and prodigal son Matt Kemp for prospects and flexibility but a month later time is running out for deals and this is the Dodger positional roster.
| Against RHP | POS | Against LHP | POS |
| Joc Pederson | Left Field | Chris Taylor | Left Field |
| Alex Verdugo | Right Field | Corey Seager | SS |
| Justin Turner | 3rd Base | Justin Turner | 3rd Base |
| Corey Seager | Shortstop | David Freeze | 1st Base |
| Cody Bellinger | Center Field | Kiké Hernandez | 2nd Base |
| Max Muncy | !st Base | Cody Bellinger | Center Field |
| Kike Hernandez | 2nd Base | Alex Verdugo | Right Field |
| Austin Barnes | Catcher | Austin Barnes | Catcher |
| Walker Buehler | Pitcher | Walker Buehler | Pitcher |
| Andrew Toles | Joc Pederson | ||
| Chris Taylor | Andrew Toles | ||
| David Freeze | Backup Catcher | ||
| Backup Catcher | Max Muncy |
At first blush, for a team who has represented the NL in the last two World Series, this iteration as it stands has so many question marks in a much-improved NL that it is hard for me to imagine this team going to the 2019 World Series. Alex Verdugo would have to win the 2019 ROY award to match what Puig has done in RF. The only player without any questions would seem to be Justin Turner.
Can Joc sustain the skill gains of 2018 or will 2017 rear its ugly head again?
Can Bellinger bounce back and crush (or even hit ) hit left-handers once again?
Muncy was one of a kind in 2018, now he has to prove that everything before 2018 was just getting him ready for 2018 and that he’s the real deal.
Will surgery rob Corey Seager of his MVP skills? Without Corey Seager putting up a top ten MVP season, this team just doesn’t seem right. So much of the Dodger success hinges on a player who only played twenty-six crappy games in 2018.
Hernandez was just starting to look like a productive everyday player when Oct came by and crapped all over his season. Can his glove work make up for his offensive deficiencies when facing RHP, or should Chris Taylor be the everyday 2nd baseman?
Austin Barnes starting catcher. That scares most Dodger fans. It doesn’t scare me, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have lots of his own questions. Can he hit like 2017? Can he even physically handle catching 100 plus games?
Does David Freeze have at least one year left of smacking around left-hand pitchers?
Every team has questions but this just seems like a lot of uncertainty for a team in the Dodgers position. A year from now Alex Verdugo could be considered one of the best RF in the game, and Gavin Lux along with Keibert Ruiz might the starting 2nd baseman and catcher but until they are ready, Dodgers look to be leaning heavily on players who have failed more often than they have succeeded in Hernandez and Barnes.
On the plus side, the rotation still looks loaded, and Kenley was given some help with Joe Kelly.
I did have confidence in the front office but they have had an immense brain drain in the past two years so the new group centered around President Andrew Friedman will have to prove they can build another World Series capable team. Trading Puig one year early to open a spot for Verdugo was a bold move but that doesn’t mean it was the right move. Puig is young enough and skilled enough that he might have a top ten MVP season in his Adonis body. If he puts it together while Verdugo struggles, that won’t look good to a fan base that has really taken to Puig. Signing Harper would have quieted the skeptics but who wants to give anyone a ten-year deal? Not the Dodger front office. If you aren’t going to give Harper or Machado a ten-year deal, the odds are high you will never give anyone a ten-year deal. The asking price for the best catcher in the NL was evidently too high for the Dodgers to match. They are in a tough spot with the best catching prospect in baseball just a year away. Maybe they don’t think Keibert is really that far away? Maybe just maybe they expect Keibert to be ready by August of 2019. There had to be a reason they were so aggressive in their promotions of the kid who only turned 20 this past summer. More on that next.
The day Willie Ellison ran wild
The different iterations of the Rams have had their share of fantastic running backs, but the guy who still holds the single-game record for rushing is probably an unknown to anyone under the age of 50. Only one Ram running back has ever rushed for more than 240 yards from scrimmage and his name is not Todd Gurley, Steven Jackson, Marshall Faulk, Eric Dickerson, Jerome Bettis, Greg Bell, Charles White, or Lawrence McCutcheon. His name is Willie Ellison and he did it on December 5th, 1971.
Jon Weisman recently wrote an outstanding article about life as a Rams fan and other than the fact his fandom started six years after mine, and that our family never had season tickets, it was very close to the same feeling.
I’m not trying to take anything away from the present-day Los Angeles Rams or their fans, whom I wish every thrilling and victorious moment they can get. But my Ramdom fandom is frozen in time. The Rams could end up with a season for the ages, and I will forever feel like an outsider. They left, and I let them go.
I don’t want to copy what Jon wrote but I have three main memories of the Rams that have stayed with me all these years. I think most Ram fans of our era would point to the Vince Ferragamo to Billy Waddy touchdown pass to finally beat the Cowboys as the biggest play of the Ram franchise before they left for Saint Louis. It is the one play that stands out in my memory. The second would be when Joe Kapp hurdled Richie Petitbon in the 1969 NFL Division Championship game between the Rams and Vikings. The Rams had a 17 – 7 half time lead and look destined to appear in the 4th Super Bowl but Joe Kapp would quell that by leading the Vikings to a 23 – 20 victory. I’m sure there were many key plays but the only one that I can remember is Joe running for a key first down by hurdling over strong safety Richie Petitbon. The third though is a game that hardly anyone remembers anymore. That is the game that Willie Ellison ran wild.
One of the big differences between Jon and myself is that my frozen in time Ram teams were the 1969 – 72 teams. Those teams had a backfield of Roman Gabriel, Les Josephson, Larry Smith and Willie Ellison. The wide receiver group of Jack Snow, Lance Rentzel. The punt returner Alvin Hammond who never saw a punt that he felt he couldn’t return. The punter/receiver, Pat Studstill. The perennial All-Pro Tom Mack along with Charlie Cowan. The fearsome line of Deacon Jones, Merlin Olsen, and Cory Bacon. Jack Youngblood was just getting started. The linebackers were led by Marlin McKeever (Jack Reynolds was around the corner) and rookie Isiah Robertson.
Anyway, the Rams were my team and they weren’t on TV if they were playing locally because it was hard to sell out the Coliseum. So on Dec 5th, 1971 I curled up with my radio, Dick Enberg, and my Los Angeles Times. There was no scorebook for football, so I had taken to writing each gain by the running backs in the margin next to the John Hall column which appeared on the 3rd page of the Los Angeles Times sports section. I’ll be honest, I don’t remember what he did to aggregate 247 yards, I just remember that he had some monster runs and that I ran of out space on the left margin, and had to move my scorekeeping notes up to the top margin. Looking back, I see he had runs of eighty yards and forty-eight yards. Dick Enberg might have been the best play by play NFL announcer I ever heard and with each run being called by Dick, I could envision Willie creating havoc breaking off big run after big run. A little context here. The Rams had a boring coach in George Allen and he preferred his slow but steady backfield of Josephson and Lary Smith, but I had always been a Willie Ellison fan because I loved speeeeeeeeeeeeeeed. Ellison had plenty of speed and for one game he did what no other Ram running back or any NFL had ever done. At the time record was 243 yeards set in 1963. It still stands as the best rushing yardage game for any iteration of the Rams. I was thirteen, and I can’t describe the palpable excitement as Willie closed in on the record but it was there.
Rush Rush Rush Rush Player Date Tm Result Att Yds Y/A TD Willie Ellison 1971-12-05 RAM W 45-28 26 247 9.50 1 Tommy Wilson 1956-12-16 RAM W 49-21 23 223 9.70 0 Greg Bell 1989-09-24 RAM W 41-38 28 221 7.89 2 Marshall Faulk* 2000-12-24 STL W 26-21 32 220 6.88 2 Eric Dickerson* 1984-12-09 RAM W 27-16 27 215 7.96 2 Charles White 1987-11-15 RAM W 27-24 34 213 6.26 1 Jerome Bettis* 1993-12-12 RAM W 23-20 28 212 7.57 1 Greg Bell 1989-12-24 RAM W 24-20 26 210 8.08 1 Todd Gurley 2018-10-14 LAR W 23-20 28 208 7.43 2 Marshall Faulk* 2000-10-15 STL W 45-29 25 208 8.32 1 Eric Dickerson* 1984-11-04 RAM W 16-13 21 208 9.90 0 Eric Dickerson* 1986-10-05 RAM W 26-20 30 207 6.90 2 Dan Towler 1953-11-22 RAM W 21-13 14 205 14.64 1 Marshall Faulk* 2001-12-23 STL W 38-32 30 202 6.73 2
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/10/2019.
Even though it was the NFL record on 12/5/1971 it is now only the 13th best.
Rush Rush Rush Rush Player Date Tm Result Att Yds Y/A TD Adrian Peterson 2007-11-04 MIN W 35-17 30 296 9.87 3 Jamal Lewis 2003-09-14 BAL W 33-13 30 295 9.83 2 Jerome Harrison 2009-12-20 CLE W 41-34 34 286 8.41 3 Corey Dillon 2000-10-22 CIN W 31-21 22 278 12.64 2 Walter Payton* 1977-11-20 CHI W 10-7 40 275 6.88 1 O.J. Simpson* 1976-11-25 BUF L 14-27 29 273 9.41 2 Shaun Alexander 2001-11-11 SEA W 34-27 35 266 7.60 3 Jamaal Charles 2010-01-03 KAN W 44-24 25 259 10.36 2 DeMarco Murray 2011-10-23 DAL W 34-7 25 253 10.12 1 Doug Martin 2012-11-04 TAM W 42-32 25 251 10.04 4 Mike Anderson 2000-12-03 DEN W 38-23 37 251 6.78 4 O.J. Simpson* 1973-09-16 BUF W 31-13 29 250 8.62 2 Willie Ellison 1971-12-05 RAM W 45-28 26 247 9.50 1 Corey Dillon 1997-12-04 CIN W 41-14 39 246 6.31 4 LaDainian Tomlinson* 2003-12-28 SDG W 21-14 31 243 7.84 2 Cookie Gilchrist 1963-12-08 BUF W 45-14 36 243 6.75 5
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/10/2019.
Why does Joc get so little love?
I didn’t expect much from Joc when he came up in 2015 but he surprised me with how he played CF, and of course, his first few months were Puig like which may have set the expectations at an unreasonable level. By May 1st, 2015, Joc had an OPS of 1.096 while playing some of the best CF I had seen from a Dodger CF in many a year. Even by June 1st, the OPS was still at an elite level of .933. Joc would hit four home run in four games in Colorado and spike his OPS to .998. It was pretty much a free fall from there to an OPS of .800 and eventually the season-ending .760. Joc stopped playing an electric CF and became a drag on the outfield defense until he was moved to left field this past season. His bat has never hit the highs of his first two months but he has certainly had his runs over the next three years, including an outstanding World Series in 2017. It might be the most recent World Series why he has lost some luster. Joc had one hit in the World Series, had zero walks, and looked lost. Yet, all the Dodgers looked lost in the 2018 World Series.
The one thing about Joc that I’ve always loved was his power swing. I stopped covering the Dodgers by the time he showed up so I never got to witness his batting practice up close but I bet it was worth watching.
The chart below from the Fangraphs Multi-Year selection process includes all NL outfielders who have had at least 1500 PA since 2015. Joc is the last of these outfielders to have earned at least 10 fWAR since 2015. Joc is not elite, but he is good.
| Name | WAR | wOBA | wRC+ | BB% | K% | ISO |
| Bryce Harper | 20.6 | 0.398 | 149 | 17.40% | 20.90% | 0.259 |
| Christian Yelich | 20 | 0.371 | 135 | 10.60% | 20.20% | 0.185 |
| Charlie Blackmon | 16.5 | 0.38 | 123 | 7.80% | 17.60% | 0.219 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 12.6 | 0.352 | 122 | 12.10% | 20.00% | 0.185 |
| Starling Marte | 12.1 | 0.336 | 112 | 5.00% | 18.90% | 0.153 |
| A.J. Pollock | 12 | 0.351 | 116 | 7.50% | 16.30% | 0.2 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 11.7 | 0.34 | 114 | 7.30% | 19.90% | 0.179 |
| Ender Inciarte | 11.4 | 0.32 | 96 | 6.70% | 12.20% | 0.105 |
| Odubel Herrera | 11.4 | 0.329 | 104 | 6.80% | 21.70% | 0.148 |
| Curtis Granderson | 11.1 | 0.344 | 119 | 13.10% | 21.80% | 0.22 |
| Michael Conforto | 10.3 | 0.351 | 124 | 12.00% | 24.70% | 0.225 |
| Joc Pederson | 10.1 | 0.344 | 119 | 12.80% | 24.80% | 0.232 |
Joc had the off year in 2017, otherwise he’d be right smack in the middle of that group above us. You are looking at a player who has earned between 2.7 – 3.6 fWAR in three of his four major league seasons. He has some positive trends working in his favor. The biggest trend has been the drop in his K rate from 29% to 19% while putting up his best ISO. The walk rate has now dropped below 10% after three straight years over 12%. I have no idea what impact the new Dodger hitting coach can have on Joc but if he can get Joc back over a 10% walk rate, keep the K rate below 20%, and the ISO above .250 we just might have a 4 fWAR player. We know his Achilles heel is left-handed pitching but it was the same for Andre Ethier who ended up being a valuable Dodger until he signed his extension.
I should appreciate Joc more.
| Season | PA | HR | BB% | K% | ISO | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | WAR |
| 2015 | 585 | 26 | 15.70% | 29.10% | 0.21 | 0.35 | 0.42 | 0.34 | 116 | 3.1 |
| 2016 | 476 | 25 | 13.20% | 27.30% | 0.25 | 0.35 | 0.5 | 0.36 | 128 | 3.6 |
| 2017 | 323 | 11 | 12.10% | 21.10% | 0.19 | 0.33 | 0.41 | 0.32 | 100 | 0.6 |
| 2018 | 443 | 25 | 9.00% | 19.20% | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.52 | 0.35 | 126 | 2.7 |
Fangraphs Crowdsource HOF Ballot
Can I have a do-over? Jay Jaffe reminded fangraphs members that today was the last day to submit their 2019 HOF vote in their HOF Crowdsource ballot. I used to be a big HOF debate person as I watched solid HOF candidates get zero traction and disappear off the ballot before a groundswell of support could get them in like Bert Blyleven but my passion for that debate has waned.
I had stayed so far out I didn’t’ even know who was on the ballot until I decided to put in my two cents. I probably should have stayed out of the discussion. I voted with my gut and sent it in. Only after I voted did I read the awesome breakdown by Jay Jaffe on the 2019 HOF ballot.
This is my HOF ballot.
Because so many of the PED-tainted group were still on the ballot it was easy to use all ten of my votes. I would have used more but I decided to use my votes on the guys who should have been in a long time ago. Did the election of Harold Baines change my mind? Yes, I can’t leave out Edgar Martinez if Harold Baines is in the HOF. I did think that Scott Rolen, Lance Berkman, Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling, and Andy Pettitte had legit cases but they didn’t make my cut.
This wasn’t a fun exercise, I had to hold my nose to vote for players who at one time cheated or who I actually loathed. Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens were players I couldn’t stand from day one, long before their PED days. They were also the two of the best players of their era and my easy first two picks. Mariano Rivera was my 3rd pick. Roy Halladay was my 4th pick. Edgar Martinez was my 5th pick.
At this point, Jay Jaffe and I are seeing eye to eye. It gets dicey after that. Larry Walker was my 9th pick, just before Manny Ramirez. He was Jay’s sixth pick. Gary Sheffield, Manny Ramirez, Jeff Kent all got my vote, but their defensive shortcoming didn’t get them much JAWS support. Each was borderline at best according to Jay. That left Sammy Sosa whose offensive career wasn’t enough and may have been my poorest choice.
This meant that four of my ten would not have passed the JAWS test. They were borderline choices but Jay really likes Rolen who I noted in my notes was someone who I planned on voting for. The others were Mike Mussina, Todd Helton, and Billy Wagner. I have no plans of supporting Billy Wagner for the HOF. I knew Mussina had a good argument and can easily support that vote. Todd Helton? I’ll have to review the data for that one.
Even if I had a do over I would not include Wagner or Helton. I suppose I would drop Jeff Kent and Sammy Sosa for Scott Rolen and Mike Mussina. I’m good with that.
Lou Williams gives sellers remorse over and over
Watching Lou Williams once again decimate the Lakers on Friday Night, I got to thinking that every team that has traded him, has to be suffering from sellers remorse and he’s been traded three times in five years.
Lou Williams was traded by the Hawks in the summer of 2014 for John Salmons. Lou would go onto win his first Sixth man of the Year award, while John Salmons played one year before retiring.
On July 9th, 2015, the Lakers signed Lou Williams who quickly become their best scorer but the team was going nowhere so they traded him to the Houston Rockets for Corey Brewer and a 2017 1st round pick which turned into Tony Bradley. The Lakers traded Tony Bradley to Utah for Josh Hart, so I guess they got value as Josh Hart has been a nice addition but he’s no Lou Williams. More on that in a moment.
Houston only kept Lou for 1/2 a season before sending him to the Clippers in the Chris Paul trade. Houston got a legendary point guard on the wrong side of 30 and are now paying Chris Paul a ridiculous $185 Million over the next five years. Chris Paul hasn’t been able to play over 60 games since he was thirty and if you tell me that doesn’t matter as long as he’s healthy in the postseason, remind me the last time Chris Paul played a full set of healthy postseason games? I don’t think Clipper or Rocket fans can remember. And guess what? He’s hurt again. In return, the Clippers got Lou Williams, Montrezl Harrell, and Patrick Beverly. I’m not going to say that Lou Williams right now is better than Chris Paul but I’m going to ask you who would you rather have in an NBA cap league. Chris Paul at five years and $185 Million or Lou Williams at two years and $16 Million? Lou Williams won his second Sixth Man of the Year award in 2017-2018. He also was one of the best scorers in the 4th quarter. He is so important to the Clipper offense in 2018 that when he missed four games the 21 – 15 Clippers lost them all. With Lou, the Clippers are 21 – 11, without him they are 0 – 4. Seems like he’s kind of important to the team.
The NBA is a young man’s league but Lou Williams seems to be getting better. He’s shooting 38% on three-pointers, averaging almost 5 assists a game, and scoring 18 points a game while playing only 25 minutes per game. His PER is 20.5, there are only 16 NBA players in the past two years have played significant minutes and who are over the age of 30 that have a PER > 20.
Chris Paul made that list in 2017-2018. He does not make that list this year. Lou Williams is on that list for both years.
Back to the Lakers and Lou. Lou is 5 – 0 playing against the Lakers since they traded him. He has three games over 30 points. Sellers remorse?
Dodgers, Yesterday and Today 