Did the Dodgers acquire a Hill of beans or a King of the hill?
Josh Reddick should provide a consistent bat and glove against RHP and is a very known quantity. Rich Hill, on the other hand, is one of the more bizarre baseball stories of the past ten years. He has been brilliant, and he has been so bad that multiple teams have given up on him.
The Hill of beans possibility:
- Rich Hill is 36 years old and hasn’t pitched 100 innings since 2007. He currently has 75 in the book for 2016 and the Dodgers will need quite a few innings from him over the next two months. Can he do it? History says no.
- Over the past ten years, Rich Hill has had about three good months in major league baseball. Last Sept, this April and May. You will notice June and July missing.
- The oft-injured Rich Hill has already had two DL stints this year which account for his meager 75 innings so far in 2016. He had a groin issue in late May that put him on the DL for all of June. He came back to make two starts in July and developed a blister that wouldn’t go away. Hill tried to make a start on July 17th but never threw a pitch. They gave it some rest and tried again. No go so he went on the DL. He is due to come off of DL this week. When he comes off the DL it is just a matter of time before he hits it again.
- His team log might be the longest in baseball for an active player. I stopped count at over 25 teams.
- This spring I watched Rich Hill walk five straight Dodgers in one of the craziest starts I’d ever seen. It was just a spring game, but that stuff stays with you. Mind you this was not his first game of the spring. Oakland A fans all around were moaning.
The King of Hill possibility:
- Last Sept Rich Hill was arguably the best pitcher in baseball. Granted he came out of nowhere but when the Red Sox gave him a shot, he was simply brilliant. It was only a brief four-game run, but one that included his first shutout in ten years. Hill made such an impact that the A’s gave him a $6,000,0000 contract for one year.
- This year Rich Hill proved to the A’s that they had made a wise investment by being one of the best pitchers in baseball in April and May. Hill had an auspicious start and was hammered on April 4th, only able to secure eight outs before being driven from the game. But that was his only misstep, in his next twelve starts he has only given up three runs twice, every other game is two runs or less.
- When Rich Hill is on, he is considered to have one of the best curveballs in the game.
- If healthy Rich Hill can be an important piece of the Dodger post-season rotation
- If Rich Hill stays healthy they will have first shot at signing him for future seasons.
How Rich Hill helps the Dodgers would seem to depend on one thing. Can Rich Hill stay healthy enough to make a difference. Only time will tell, history does not think so, but anyone who has preservered like Rich Hill has something on his side. The Dodger front office is betting on it. They need Rich Hill to succeed, because right now the Giants have Moore on their side.
Zaidi breaks down the Dodger deals
A rather pedestrian trading deadline was broken down by Farhan Zaidi but all the fireworks happened after the trade deadline when it was learned that Puig was not on the plane with the team to Colorado even though he had not been traded.
As you all know the Dodgers received Josh Reddick, Rich Hill, Jesse Chavez, and Josh Fields for Frankie Montas, Grant Holmes, Jharel Cotton, Yordan Alveraz, and Mike Bolsinger.
Holmes was ranked as the Dodgers 5th best prospect by MLB. Montas as number eight, and Cotton as number thirteen.
For those who didn’t want to see Urias and company get traded, they get their wish. For those who hoped for bigger impact players, they didn’t get their wish.
To be honest, all of the trades have now been overshadowed by the Puig news, and until we know more we simply don’t know what is going on, though that hasn’t stopped everyone from conjecturing.
Eric Stephen at TBLA has a reasonable take on the story and the best lede.
Dodgers go to Denver, Yasiel Puig reportedly left home alone https://t.co/WknMBcV7kP pic.twitter.com/j0YEAIfon1
— Eric Stephen (@truebluela) August 1, 2016
What three players in the LAD minor league system do want to stay that way?
As of 10:00 PCT every single Dodger prospect is still a Dodger. That will change in the next twelve hours but I’m curious who most people think are the most valuable assets the Dodgers currently have. It would be easy to simply pick the top three prospects but it doesn’t work that way because of age. For example Cory Seager had to work his way to the top, a year ago Bellinger was just starting to get some play. Stuff like that.
Using this as a guideline or not, what players do you think are destined for major league success.
Probably everyone would have Urias as their number one pick but who knows.
I will admit right off the bat, I’m no expert, just a Dodger fan, but as a fan the three players I’d like to remain in the system are:
Julio Urias – for obvious reasons
Yadier Alveraz
Cody Bellinger
Who are yours?
Corey Seager is running down Hanley Ramirez
Corey is chasing Hanley Ramirez in two different years and two different categories.
- In 2013 Hanley hit 20 home runs as a Shortstop, and that is the record that Seager is chasing for most home runs by a LAD shortstop. Corey has 18 home runs and that record should fall in August.
- In 2014 Hanley hit 35 doubles as a Shortstop and that is the record he’s chasing for most doubles by a LAD Shortstop. Corey has 30 doubles and that record should fall in August.
- In 2014 Hanley drove in 71 runs, and that is the record that Corey is chasing. Seager has 47 RBI. That record may be nip and tuck as the season winds down.
Two LAD shortstop records that Corey won’t be sniffing this year are most hits and most runs scored. Maury Wills holds both records and it would take an MVP season from Seager eventually sniff those, just as Wills won the MPV when he set them in 1962 with 208 hits, and 130 runs scored. Won’t even mention Stolen Bases because that isn’t his game.
Edwin Rios hits first AA home run
Edwin Rios has used the minor league ladder in the proper manner going up one rung at a time, but he is fast stepping it, appearing on three rungs in one season.
A MWL Loons – six home runs in 119 at bats
A+ California League Quakes – sixteen home runs in 177 at-bats
AA Texas League Drillers – first home run today with more sure to come
Total of twenty-three home runs so far this year for Rios, which leads all Dodgers in the minor leagues. He can fight it out with Willie Calhoun who has 22 now that they are on the same team.
How wrong can a blogger be? Let me count the ways
Back on July 1st, for fun I wrote a rebuttal of Jon Weisman who had made the case for staying positive, and as the Dodgers conclude an especially satisfying July, I will need to eat some crow. It is never a good idea to bet against Jon, and once again he proves this to be the case. Let’s take a look at look at the big whiff:
The best hitter on the team is a rookie who has yet to have a slump. Even though Corey Seager is the greatest thing since Mike Piazza, can he follow Mike Piazza and continue carrying the offense on his back until the end of the year?
Cory didn’t hit a home run in the month of July until the last day, but he did everything else. He singled, he doubled, and he continued to be an offensive force.
Adrian Gonzalez not only looks lost but sounds lost. Just the other day he lamented the defensive shifts he is seeing and bemoaned they are making him a .250 hitter. Heck Adrian, Dodger fans will take .250, just hit a home run once in a while instead of ground balls to second. You can’t really blame the shift on your lack of power. Call up Big Papi and ask him how he’s doing it. You can’t complain about how baseball is making slow 1st baseman obsolete when Big Papi is rewriting record books while being the slowest player in baseball.
Adrian answered the call in July. He didn’t deliver much power but he did rebound with a very useful July, putting up a .873 OPS.
Ryu could barely get through his rehabs without having to stop multiple times. What do you think is going to happen when he has to pitch every fifth day for a month?
Okay, I got that one right. Sadly
Julio Urias has two more starts and then is gone from the rotation. For how long we don’t know. All year? Until Sept? Can he be effective out of the bullpen?
Okay, I got that one right. Urias only made two starts in July and you’d be generous to call either effective. Urias has yet to throw an inning in relief for the Dodgers yet.
Bud Norris could be good, average, below average, or horrible, and for his career, he’s been the latter two much more than the former two. Notice that none of those options are above average.
Bud Norris has been adequate. As noted the Dodgers are now 4 – 2 in the six starts he has replaced Kershaw. So exactly what was expected.
Dave Roberts thinks that Howie Kendrick is a starting left fielder. A left fielder who is about to garner his 100th plate appearance as a left fielder without driving in one single player that wasn’t named Howie Kendrick.
Howie made me look very bad this month. Howie owned July and has even looked like a left fielder. Dave Roberts was right, I was wrong, and the Dodgers are much better for it.
Puig looks good again, but for how long? Will it be the hamstring that takes him down, or will it simply be that he’s not very good?
Dang, I got this right. Puig only gave the Dodgers one home run in July in 71 plate appearances. He was hurt again, and when he wasn’t hurt he was barely adequate.
Injury-plagued seasons don’t simply stop being injury plagued. If this season can take down Clayton Kershaw it can take down anyone.
Oops, right again. July saw numerous Dodgers go down with injuries. Ryu was gone before you noticed he was back. Alex Wood never got back before going down. Norris only got one out in his last start before leaving the game. Yimi Garcia couldn’t even finish his rehab without injury. Kike Hernandez / Puig / Trayce Thompson all missed significant time in the month.
The phrase – “the soft underbelly of the bullpen” might get used three out of five games for a while.
The bullpen was overused in July just as I suspected it would be, but the bullpen was up to the task and was simply brilliant in July. I think they were the best in baseball in July.
If everything goes right the Dodgers could win exactly as many games in the second half without Kershaw, and still not make the postseason because they are battling multiple teams for the wild card, not just chasing the Giants. Two of probably four teams are going to make the wild card from among the Marlins/Mets/Cardinals/Dodgers.
The Dodgers weren’t brilliant in July going 15 – 9 but was their best winning percentage of the season, and the Giants helped out by blowing chunks out of the all-star gate, allowing the Dodgers to pick up five games.
Hmmm, I was kind of right four out of ten, so not horrible but still the Dodgers managed to go 15 – 9. They still have lots of problems to sort out, and who knows who is going to be on the team by this time tomorrow but I think the next time I feel the urge to write a rebuttal to Jon Weisman, I’ll check myself. But only for a moment, because I did enjoy writing the original article and isn’t that the point of being a blogger?
Grandal has 15 home runs, and 5 of them are 3 run home runs
When it comes to getting the most bang for your buck, Yazmani Grandal can lay claim to being one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball with two runners on. Even before today Yaz had a plus .900 OPS with RISP. He has now hit six of his fifteen home runs with RISP. Say what you will about how useful the RISP stat is, as a fan, it kicks ass, when the hitter is successful at it compared to ground balls to 2nd base.
I’ve gotten to the point now that when Yazmani is up with two runners on, I expect a home run, and I’ve not been disappointed. I’ll let the stat experts break it down, but I’m pretty sure that someone who has hit at least 15 home runs, with 5 of them being at least a three-run home run, Yaz is doing something not many other home hitters are doing. By my bad math, that is a 33% rate for three-run home runs compared to all his home runs.
Who is better at that this year?
No Kershaw, no problema, no Norris, no problema
The Dodgers continue to see their rotation dwindle but it doesn’t slow the locomotive down one bit. When Bud Norris replaced Kershaw in the rotation the team was expected to take a hit when that spot in the rotation came up, but Bud Norris was able to at least tread water. Today when Bud Norris went down after getting only one out in the first inning you had every right to expect the team to crumble, but once again someone plugged their finger into the breach to hold back the flood waters. This time, it was Ross Stripling and a host of other relief pitchers. The great relief job was bolstered by the hottest bats in July, led by Grandal, Turner, and Seager as the Dodgers blasted the Diamondbacks back to Phoenix.
The Dodgers were 14 – 2 in Kershaw starts before he got hurt. They have gone 4 -2 in starts not made by Kershaw in that spot in the rotation. That isn’t Kershaw level but it is way better than anyone had the right to expect given they were replacing the best pitcher in baseball.
Corey Seager now tied with Eric Karros for most LAD doubles by a Rookie
When Corey Seager hit his tenth double of the month he tied Eric Karros for the most doubles by a LAD rookie. One more double and he’s all alone. Shawn Green holds the all time LAD double record with 49 set in 2003. Green broke the long standing record of 47 set by Wes Parker in 1970. To date, 60 Dodgers have hit at least 30 doubles in a season. With 30 already as we head into August, Corey is a long shot at breaking that record but he just needs to average 10 doubles per month. Not likely
The complete list at baseball reference:
| Player | 2B | Year | Age | |||
| Eric Karros (RoY-1st) | | | 30 | | | 1992 | | | 24 |
| Corey Seager | | | 30 | | | 2016 | | | 22 |
| Raul Mondesi (RoY-1st) | | | 27 | | | 1994 | | | 23 |
| Todd Hollandsworth (RoY-1st) | | | 26 | | | 1996 | | | 23 |
| Russell Martin (RoY – 9th) | | | 26 | | | 2006 | | | 23 |
| Mike Piazza (RoY-1st) | | | 24 | | | 1993 | | | 24 |
| Mariano Duncan (RoY-3rd) | | | 24 | | | 1985 | | | 22 |
| Steve Sax (RoY-1st) | | | 23 | | | 1982 | | | 22 |
| Yasiel Puig (RoY-2nd) | | | 21 | | | 2013 | | | 22 |
Corey Seager moves to within one of Eric Karros on LAD Rookie Double leaderboard
With two doubles last night and twenty-nine overall, Corey said good-bye to Raul Mondesi and is nipping at the heels of Eric Karros.
The complete list at baseball reference:
| Player | 2B | Year | Age | |||
| Eric Karros (RoY-1st) | | | 30 | | | 1992 | | | 24 |
| Corey Seager | | | 30 | | | 2016 | | | 22 |
| Raul Mondesi (RoY-1st) | | | 27 | | | 1994 | | | 23 |
| Todd Hollandsworth (RoY-1st) | | | 26 | | | 1996 | | | 23 |
| Russell Martin (RoY – 9th) | | | 26 | | | 2006 | | | 23 |
| Mike Piazza (RoY-1st) | | | 24 | | | 1993 | | | 24 |
| Mariano Duncan (RoY-3rd) | | | 24 | | | 1985 | | | 22 |
| Steve Sax (RoY-1st) | | | 23 | | | 1982 | | | 22 |
| Yasiel Puig (RoY-2nd) | | | 21 | | | 2013 | | | 22 |
Dodgers, Yesterday and Today 