Let’s talk about Caleb Ferguson

Phil Gurnee ♦ May 31, 2018 ♦ 1 Comment

Last week Caleb Ferguson was promoted to AAA to pitch for the Oklahoma Dodgers at the age of twenty-one.  Caleb earned this promotion by being the best pitcher stat-wise for the Dodger AA affiliate Tulsa team.  You could argue he was the best pitcher in the Texas League and I would not disagree if we are simply talking the numbers and not the stuff. Caleb led the league in ERA with a paltry 1.38, was 4th in WHIP at 1.051, and 6th in SO/W at 4. Based on at least 30 innings, and being a full-time starter.

In his AAA debut last week Caleb kind of announced himself to those who had never heard of him. He went five innings, gave up 3 hits, zero earned runs, zero walks, and struck out ten. The kind of game that if Walker Buehler or Dennis Santana had thrown would have gotten all sorts of oohs and aahs.

One prospect list that I use has 400 players on the list. It is created by Rotowire so the list is geared toward roto players but you can’t be a good roto player without good base skills.  On this list I wondered how many 21-year-old pitchers who are in AAA are on the list. Not very many. The list below is sorted by age (21 years or older) by Current level. Only four 21-year-old pitchers are in AAA or higher (major leagues). Of those four they are ranked 59th, 78th, 198, and 400th. Caleb Ferguson is number 400 even though he has advanced to the highest level of the minor leagues at an age where most prospects are still in AA or below.

After the major league draft on Monday, Rotowire will be updating their top 400 list, I expect Caleb Ferguson to make quite the jump from the 400 he currently sits at. This is a bit reminiscent of Dennis Santana who entered 2017 are an unheralded prospect and is now the Dodgers top pitching prospect with the promotion of Walker Buehler to the major leagues. Dennis Santana is also now in the major leagues but probably just for a week or so.

I have to admit, I saw Caleb pitch last year in the postseason and came away unimpressed so I can why the scouts aren’t enamored with his stuff. Still, he had a great 2017 season and an even better 2018 so far so something is working well for the youngster.  I’m not even going to post the old scouting report on Caleb until we get a new one because I’m guessing something has changed for this kind of success.

Meanwhile the young guns Yadier Alvarez and Mitchell White continue to live on hype alone, as they have had little success at the same level that Caleb dominated.