Let’s talk about Caleb Ferguson

Phil Gurnee ♦ May 31, 2018 ♦ 1 Comment

Last week Caleb Ferguson was promoted to AAA to pitch for the Oklahoma Dodgers at the age of twenty-one.  Caleb earned this promotion by being the best pitcher stat-wise for the Dodger AA affiliate Tulsa team.  You could argue he was the best pitcher in the Texas League and I would not disagree if we are simply talking the numbers and not the stuff. Caleb led the league in ERA with a paltry 1.38, was 4th in WHIP at 1.051, and 6th in SO/W at 4. Based on at least 30 innings, and being a full-time starter.

Name	Aff	ERA ▲	GS	IP	WHIP	BB9	SO9	SO/W
Caleb Ferguson*	LAD	1.38	8	39	1.051	2.3	9.2	4
Cionel Perez*	HOU	1.88	7	38.1	1.174	3.5	11	3.13
Ryan Hartman*	HOU	1.96	6	41.1	1.065	1.5	10.7	7
Ariel Jurado	TEX	2.05	7	44	1	1.6	3.9	2.38
Jesse Scholtens	SDP	2.8	6	35.1	0.792	1.8	11.5	6.43
Glenn Sparkman	KCR	2.94	6	33.2	1.069	0.3	7	26
Andrew Moore	SEA	3.04	9	50.1	1.033	2.5	8.4	3.36
Brock Dykxhoorn	HOU	3.16	6	37	1.189	3.6	7.5	2.07
Richelson Pena	TEX	3.22	8	44.2	1.276	2	7.9	3.9

In his AAA debut last week Caleb kind of announced himself to those who had never heard of him. He went five innings, gave up 3 hits, zero earned runs, zero walks, and struck out ten. The kind of game that if Walker Buehler or Dennis Santana had thrown would have gotten all sorts of oohs and aahs.

One prospect list that I use has 400 players on the list. It is created by Rotowire so the list is geared toward roto players but you can’t be a good roto player without good base skills.  On this list I wondered how many 21-year-old pitchers who are in AAA are on the list. Not very many. The list below is sorted by age (21 years or older) by Current level. Only four 21-year-old pitchers are in AAA or higher (major leagues). Of those four they are ranked 59th, 78th, 198, and 400th. Caleb Ferguson is number 400 even though he has advanced to the highest level of the minor leagues at an age where most prospects are still in AA or below.

After the major league draft on Monday, Rotowire will be updating their top 400 list, I expect Caleb Ferguson to make quite the jump from the 400 he currently sits at. This is a bit reminiscent of Dennis Santana who entered 2017 are an unheralded prospect and is now the Dodgers top pitching prospect with the promotion of Walker Buehler to the major leagues. Dennis Santana is also now in the major leagues but probably just for a week or so.

I have to admit, I saw Caleb pitch last year in the postseason and came away unimpressed so I can why the scouts aren’t enamored with his stuff. Still, he had a great 2017 season and an even better 2018 so far so something is working well for the youngster.  I’m not even going to post the old scouting report on Caleb until we get a new one because I’m guessing something has changed for this kind of success.

Meanwhile the young guns Yadier Alvarez and Mitchell White continue to live on hype alone, as they have had little success at the same level that Caleb dominated.

Ran	Player	Team	Pos	Age	CurrentLevel
281	Spencer Howard	PHI	P	21	A
289	J.B. Bukauskas	HOU	P	21	A
293	Carlos Hernandez	KC	P	21	A
81	Nate Pearson	TOR	P	21	A+
108	Adonis Medina	PHI	P	21	A+
177	Tony Santillan	CIN	P	21	A+
180	Sam Hentges	CLE	P	21	A+
307	Hector Perez	HOU	P	21	A+
345	Jonathan Hernandez	TEX	P	21	A+
131	Logan Allen	SD	P	21	AA
236	Touki Toussaint	ATL	P	21	AA
334	Beau Burrows	DET	P	21	AA
378	Genesis Cabrera	TB	P	21	AA
78	Freddy Peralta	MIL	P	21	AAA
400	Caleb Ferguson	LAD	P	21	AAA
59	Luiz Gohara	ATL	P	21	MLB
198	Jordan Hicks	STL	P	21	MLB
273	David Peterson	NYM	P	22	A
69	Chris Paddack	SD	P	22	A+
90	Albert Abreu	NYY	P	22	A+
91	Michel Baez	SD	P	22	A+
139	Dylan Cease	CWS	P	22	A+
141	Alex Faedo	DET	P	22	A+
230	Jorge Guzman	MIA	P	22	A+
246	Sam McWilliams	TB	P	22	A+
265	Justin Dunn	NYM	P	22	A+
266	Daulton Jefferies	OAK	P	22	A+
267	Luis Escobar	PIT	P	22	A+
318	Alex Lange	CHC	P	22	A+
349	Freicer Perez	NYY	P	22	A+
364	Zac Lowther	BAL	P	22	A+
383	Jorge Alcala	HOU	P	22	A+
391	Elijah Morgan	CLE	P	22	A+
395	Mike Baumann	BAL	P	22	A+
53	Kyle Wright	ATL	P	22	AA
74	Mitch Keller	PIT	P	22	AA
137	Corbin Martin	HOU	P	22	AA
144	Cal Quantrill	SD	P	22	AA
176	Griffin Canning	LAA	P	22	AA
188	Trevor Stephan	NYY	P	22	AA
197	Luis Ortiz	MIL	P	22	AA
279	Lewis Thorpe	MIN	P	22	AA
286	Yadier Alvarez	LAD	P	22	AA
333	Aaron Civale	CLE	P	22	AA
371	Franklyn Kilome	PHI	P	22	AA
380	Ranger Suarez	PHI	P	22	AA
26	Michael Kopech	CWS	P	22	AAA
72	Enyel De Los Santos	PHI	P	22	AAA
75	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	P	22	AAA
113	Justus Sheffield	NYY	P	22	AAA
204	Sean Reid-Foley	TOR	P	22	AAA
27	Jack Flaherty	STL	P	22	MLB
200	Dennis Santana	LAD	P	22	MLB
298	Eric Lauer	SD	P	22	MLB
353	Seth Romero	WAS	P	22	Rookie
181	Jonathan Loaisiga	NYY	P	23	A+
50	A.J. Puk	OAK	P	23	AA
70	Jon Duplantier	ARI	P	23	AA
120	Mitchell White	LAD	P	23	AA
149	Hunter Harvey	BAL	P	23	AA
154	Dane Dunning	CWS	P	23	AA
163	Alec Hansen	CWS	P	23	AA
202	Taylor Widener	ARI	P	23	AA
237	Taylor Hearn	PIT	P	23	AA
362	Mike Shawaryn	BOS	P	23	AA
384	Shaun Anderson	SF	P	23	AA
51	Brent Honeywell	TB	P	23	AAA
56	Corbin Burnes	MIL	P	23	AAA
98	Shane Bieber	CLE	P	23	AAA
196	Chance Adams	NYY	P	23	AAA
201	Adbert Alzolay	CHC	P	23	AAA
205	Stephen Gonsalves	MIN	P	23	AAA
231	Zack Burdi	CWS	P	23	AAA
340	Ryan Helsley	STL	P	23	AAA
341	Rogelio Armenteros	HOU	P	23	AAA
394	Duane Underwood	CHC	P	23	AAA
399	Patrick Weigel	ATL	P	23	AAA
12	Walker Buehler	LAD	P	23	MLB
14	Alex Reyes	STL	P	23	MLB
63	Fernando Romero	MIN	P	23	MLB
116	Seranthony Dominguez	PHI	P	23	MLB
208	Joe Palumbo	TEX	P	23	MLB
339	Tanner Scott	BAL	P	23	MLB
152	James Kaprielian	OAK	P	24	A+
186	Erik Swanson	NYY	P	24	A+
172	Dillon Tate	NYY	P	24	AA
330	Keury Mella	CIN	P	24	AA
379	Kyle Funkhouser	DET	P	24	AA
130	Anthony Banda	TB	P	24	AAA
179	Jalen Beeks	BOS	P	24	AAA
191	Josh Staumont	KC	P	24	AAA
283	Corey Oswalt	NYM	P	24	AAA
338	Max Fried	ATL	P	24	AAA
342	Ryan Borucki	TOR	P	24	AAA
278	Yonny Chirinos	TB	P	24	MLB
252	Josh James	HOU	P	25	AAA
264	Erick Fedde	WAS	P	25	AAA
155	Domingo German	NYY	P	25	MLB
94	Nick Kingham	PIT	P	26	MLB