Can Trevena revolutionize pain medicine?

Trevena is one of my favorite stock to follow in 2017 for two reasons. As a speculative stock, this investment is Mark Trumbo in that it can either hit a mega bagger home run or strike out four times leaving you with nothing.

This pharma has the ability to change how acute pain medicine is delivered in a way that would have multiple benefits for the human race. Right now opiates dominate the acute pain management world, and opiates have a high addiction rate that creates a whole set of new problems for the patient.

The Trevena product is being touted as not being addictive while at the same time bringing the same level of pain relief, which would differentiate itself from the other acute pain medications currently in use.

Here is the current pipeline of products in various testing stages:

Oliceridine was specifically designed to improve on conventional IV opioid pharmacology, by binding to the same receptor as conventional opioids and selectively activating pain-relieving pathways, while avoiding the pathway associated with opioid-related adverse effects. Based on clinical trial results so far, oliceridine’s profile suggests that it will provide rapid and effective pain relief while potentially setting a new standard for opioid tolerability.

I’m no doctor nor did I sleep at a Holiday Inn but I did enjoy,  not understanding how Oliceridine works.

Oliceridine (TRV130) was designed to optimize opioid receptor pharmacology to deliver an improved analgesic profile, and has been granted Breakthrough Therapy designation by the FDA. Oliceridine is the first μ‑receptor G protein pathway selective modulator (μGPS), a biased ligand targeting the μ‑opioid receptor. In preclinical studies, TRV130 activated the mu opioid G protein receptor pathway, in a manner similar to strong opioids such as morphine and fentanyl, and like these drugs oliceridine was a powerful analgesic. Unlike those drugs, in cell‑based studies oliceridine did not engage the β‑arrestin pathway, which has been shown in other preclinical studies to inhibit morphine analgesia and promote mediate morphine‑induced constipation, respiratory depression, and analgesic tolerance(

As an investment, Trevena needs to have several things go right. The clinical trials need to prove successful and that is certainly headed in the right direction. Once that happens the pain drug has to be able to market itself against the opiate based industry. Indications are that the Trevena solution will be more expensive than the currently based morphine applications.  Can it do this?

With a current market cap of $350MM, it could have plenty of room to run if things break right.  This is a highly speculative investment but one I’m bullish on. In 2016 I sold puts which have a nice premium. Those puts were exercised so now I own the stock at an average price of $5.74 in my 401 and $6.46 in my trading account. It is currently at $6.60. Hopefully,  when we check back in one year, it will have crested double digits during the year.  Seven analysts follow this stock with six buys and one hold. The highest 12-month trading target is $16.

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1 Comment

  1. 68elcamino427

    This is interesting.
    The opiods are cheap in the Pharmacy, but have a high street value.
    I got 100 oxycodone for $60 in 2007.

    People with chronic pain, like cancer patients, and people in situations like our friend Zach, would sure benefit from a pain blocker that does not have the nasty side effects.

    Like

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