Giant preview 4/24/17
Rarely over the past decade have the Dodgers faced a last place Giant team. I’ll let someone else figure out when was the last time but I know it has been a while.
At 6 – 13 the Giant are now 43 – 57 since June 30th, 2016. At that point, the Giants were 50 – 31. What has changed for such a dramatic reversal of fortune?
I haven’t a clue as I start to write this, maybe we will find out in a few paragraphs.
The Giants were abysmal last year after the All-Star Break, and if you had hope that the beginning of this year would be different, boy is your face red! The 2016 Giants had a .417 winning percentage in the second half, while so far in 2017, the team is winning at a .357 clip. And while the second half 2016 Giants looked like garbage, so far, the 2017 Giants look like stupid garbage.
The key to a great metaphor is an extensive vocabulary, by the way.
Doug threw all the advanced metrics at the 2017 team and they back up the record. He found some optimism on the pitching side but that was before MadBum went for a dirt bike ride. The man has three gigantic rings that must weigh a ton and I imagine he didn’t adjust his weight properly because of the rings and thus took a fall that may have ended the Giants season. Sure the Dodgers ran down the Giants without Kershaw, but don’t expect the Giants to pull the same rabbit out of the hat. That rabbit was already BBQ.
So with that out of the way who do the Giants have.
Posey / Belt / Panik / Crawford/ Pence/Span are all back and somewhat healthy. Eduardo Nunez was the trade addition last fall who hit well and is hitting well now. But the team keeps losing. He came from a losing team in the Twins. Guess who is winning now? The Twins.
It is clearly Eduardo Nunez that is holding the Giants down.
How is that for sabermetric analysis?
Anyway, the Dodgers will be facing Matt Cain, left-hander Ty Blach, Johnny Cueto, and another lefty in Matt Moore. They will send three left-handers against the Giants in Ryu/Kershaw/Wood or Urias. Or maybe four if Wood and Urias make the final two starts. If you want to glean anything from the Giant splits you will be disappointed. They have a .658 OPS against right-hand pitching and a .654 OPS against left-hand pitching. So far in 2017, they have sucked against either arm.
The matchup is also not kind for the Giants. They throw two lefties at the Dodgers and they might be facing Cy Current in Kershaw and Cy Future in Urias.
The Ryu / Cain matchup should decide who wins the series. Odds were high in January that neither Ryu or Cain would be in a Dodger / Giant rotation by April 24th but they are. I kind of think that Ryu is due for a good solid outing and that Cain is due to get Able’d.
It should not be long before the Giants replace the Padres and climb out of last place, but will that be as far as they climb in 2017?
MLB Weekly Notes 4/23/17
The Rockies swept the Giants and are now 13 – 6 to top the NL West. Conversely, the Giants are 6 – 13 and sit at the bottom of the NL West. The Rockies didn’t just sweep the Giants they shut them down. The Giants were shut out on Sunday and scored only eight runs in the three-game series. The Giants can’t offer any excuses as that is the full contingent of their offensive team. The Rockies did it with fantastic work from their two rookies Antonio Senzatela and Kyle Freeland. Neither of them can strike out anyone but for now, they are keeping runs off the board.
Four players hit four home runs last week but one of them is probably not a name you’d expect to see. Freddie Freeman, Giancarlo Stanton, Joey Gallo, and……………….Austin Hedges. Back in 2015 Hedges hit three home runs in 152 PA en route to a .248 slug%. He didn’t get much burn in 2016 as they decided he needed another full year at AAA. That must have worked because in 2017 Hedges has five home runs in only 62 PA with a .472 slugging percentage.
The Dodgers were will aware of the exploits of David Peralta and AJ Pollock. They led the league in hits last week with fourteen a piece.
Dan Straily struck out fourteen Padres this past weekend. The most Straily had ever struck out before was eleven. He did that twice.
Will Smith heats up
and wins the LAD Farm Factory Award for the week. Smith hit in every game this week, collecting eleven hits, three home runs, five walks, and stole three bases. For the season Smith now has a robust .333 / .421 / .625 triple stat line. Baseball America prospect report pointed out something I had missed. Smith played 2nd base base the past two games.
Will Smith, 2b, Dodgers. The Dodgers drafted Kyle Funkhouser in 2015 and didn’t sign him, but then drafted Funkhouser’s college catcher in 2016. Los Angeles likes Smith’s athleticism so much they’ve tried him at other positions despite his catching prowess, and he’s played second base the past two games. On Sunday, he cracked two homers—his first multi-homer game as a pro—in Rancho’s win over Thaiss and Inland Empire. Smith isn’t known for his power, but does have enough power to his pull side to pop 8-12 a year.
Craig Minami added some flavor to the use of Smith around the diamond.
“Being able to be flexible, bouncing around, playing third a little bit, playing second base, playing catcher,” said Quakes manager Drew Saylor, “I think that helps him.”
“I think he has just been doing a very, very good job, offensively, obviously putting up really good at bats,” said Saylor, “not only just hitting, he’s also taking his walks too, which is a very special thing to see.”
This week had a few interesting tidbits:
Top pitching prospect Yadier Alvarez made his anticipated 2017 debut. The debut wasn’t very good but he did better his second start though not something you’d expect from your top pitching prospect. For the week he pitched six innings, gave up thirteen hits, and nine runs. Craig Minami had the report on Alvarez’s second start.
On Saturday night, he struck out the side once and five of six batters in the second and third innings. He was sitting 96-97 mph in the first two innings and 94 mph in the fourth inning. He also showed some impressive off-speed pitches.
2016 number one draft pick Gavin Lux also made his 2017 debut with the Great Lake Loons. Lux played second three games and shortstop one game.
Julio Urias is no longer a prospect but he is toiling in AAA getting ready to join the Dodger rotation. His last start was his best start and he now looks ready. I’m not sure how many innings they saved his arm but I’m sure the 30 LAD analysts have it all figured out so that he can pitch meaningful innings in October, just as they had it all figured out last year.
Eighteen-year-old Keibert Ruiz may be starting to figure things out. He came into the week with only four hits and two walks, he ended the week hitting in five of the six games and collected his first multi-hit game tonight.
Not figuring it out so far has been Eighteen-year-old ONeil Cruz who is finding the challenge of mainland ball, challenging. Cruz has only six hits in almost 60 at-bats. Even worse he’s made nine errors in fifteen games while playing 3rd base. That sounds like he’s making an error on every third play. How many 3rd basemen had double digit errors before May showed up? I’m betting not many. He seems like a good bet to head to the rookie leagues when they open up after the June draft.
Staying with the Loons, Carlos Rincon is tied for first in home runs with six for the Midwest League. Carlos is slowing down as he only hit one home run this week and struck out multiple times, including four, three, and two times in a game.
Cuban import and 2nd baseman Jose Miguel Fernandez has a five-game hitting streak that included two home runs.
Ibandel Isabel hit two home runs and leads the California League with five home runs. That is about all that Isabel is doing. He has struck out 25 times in 54 at-bats.
Walker Buehler threw three more scoreless innings. He’s now made three starts, pitched nine total innings, given up only four hits, zero earned runs, one walk, and fifteen punchouts.
Justin Turner closing in on LAD double record for April/March
With nine doubles already on the books, Justin Turner has a good shot to match the most doubles ever hit in the April/March time frame by a LAD.
Player Split Year 2B PA OPS Rafael Furcal April/March 2008 12 130 1.063 Hanley Ramirez April/March 2014 11 110 .834 Cesar Izturis April/March 2002 10 107 .708 Shawn Green April/March 2003 10 127 .794 Andre Ethier April/March 2011 10 121 1.002 Shawn Green April/March 2000 9 111 .944 Paul Lo Duca April/March 2002 9 96 .779 Adrian Gonzalez April/March 2014 9 114 1.021 Adrian Gonzalez April/March 2015 9 88 1.222 Justin Turner April/March 2017 9 67 .965
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/23/2017.
Based on the table above, I guess the LAD simply didn’t many doubles in April/May until the 21st century. Digging deeper I found eight LAD hit eight doubles before the 21st century. Who knew that nine was the dividing line. The first LAD to hit ten doubles in a month was Cesar Izturis. Shawn Green hit nine doubles in 2000 and ten doubles in 2003.
Who can forget the blazing start to the 2008 season by Rafy Furcal?
Meanwhile
While Rich Hill tries to figure out how to pitch effectively with a constant blister, Jharel Cotton, Frankie Montas, and Chase De Jong all pitched in the same game last night with solid to excellent results.
Cotton started and got eighteen outs, something not that unusual for him. In four starts this year he has gotten 21, 18, 16, and 13 outs. Last year in his five starts he got 19, 17, 19, 21, and 13 outs.
Frankie Montas pitched in relief of Cotton and threw one perfect inning. It has been hit or miss for Montas so far this year. He has pitched in seven games, giving up runs in three of them, and been scoreless in four of them. When asked to get more than four outs he has been flawless which he has done three times.
Chase De Jong had a horrible debut for the Mariners early in the season and was quickly demoted back to AAA. Chase thrived in AAA and came back up this week. Yesterday was his first game back and he hurled four scoreless innings to keep the Mariners in the game. Don’t be surprised if he doesn’t replace someone in the rotation.
The Dodgers acquired Drew Jackson for Chase De Jong. Drew has speed but doesn’t really seem to be a player the Dodgers needed in the farm system. At SS they have Corey Seager, Hernandez, Chris Taylor, Brendon Davis, and last years 1st round pick Gavin Lux. Jackson at this point is simply in the way of promoting Brendon Davis to Rancho so Lux can play SS everyday for the Loons. That doesn’t seem to be something they need compared to the AAA rotation depth that De Jong would have given them.
Oh, Morrow gave up six runs last night. That was probably just his discouragment game for being a 32 year-old ex major league bright star pitching in a mop up game in AAA.
AJ Alexy turns 19 in style
When it comes to Dodger pitching prospects AJ Alexy doesn’t get the attention that the higher ranked pitching prospects get but if he keeps pitching like this, he might start drawing some attention to himself.
Alexy turned nineteen today and celebrated by pitching three scoreless innings and threw in an extra out as icing on his birthday cake. He’s only pitched nine innings in three starts but the work has been superb. Nine innings, one earned run, only three hits, only one walk, and twelve punchouts. Not bad for a nineteen year old in A ball.
Gavin Lux joined the Loons this week and the future shortstop was instead playing second base. The infield is a little crowded between the Loons and Rancho with Lux/Davis/Estevez/Jackson. Lux got his first two hits of the year tonight and stole his second base. Brandon Davis stayed at shorstop and broke a mini slump with two hits. Davis had struck out in seven of his last nine at-bats.
I noticed that Will Smith stole his 5th base for Rancho tonight. He’s a catcher so I was curious if he was leading the league with his five steals. The answer is no, but he is tied for second with three other players. Smith has been on fire with a little six game hitting streak and has his OBP knocking on .400.
Oops
Dodgers went into the game tonight with two interesting stats. Alex Wood had not allowed a hit to a left-handed hitter in twenty-six at-bats dating back to last year. David Peralta was the second left-hand hitter he faced and he gave up a single but it was innocuous. The real damage came in the 5th with runners on 2nd and 3rd, Wood gave up a single to Jake Lamb that plated two runs and gave the Dbacks a 4 – 3 lead. Of course, Lamb hits everyone in April.
Coming into the game the Dodger bullpen was ranked number one in baseball. They gave up nine runs and blew a 5 – 4 lead. Three relief pitchers shared in the grief with Romo taking the brunt of the damage. That didn’t even include the Houdini act by Baez in the 5th when he walked the first two hitters and a passed ball put runners at 2nd / 3rd with no outs. Luckily for him, the worst hitter in baseball was up in Jeff Mathis and he blew him away but it wasn’t easy. He also struck out the best pinch-hitter in April in Hazelbaker leaving Pollock as the man standing between him and the dugout. Pollock had homered, singled, and doubled but Baez got him out. That was the last good thing the Dodger bullpen did.
The game did have highlights:
- Cory Seager got three hits including a bomb. Someone in the infield can still hit a home run.
- Chris Taylor blasted a pinch-hit home run to left field providing the Dodgers with a brief 5 – 4 lead, and gave Orel and Joe a chance to wax poetic about how much Turner Ward and Dave Roberts love his new swing. They love the swing so much they sent him to AAA to start the year and soon enough he’ll be there again.
- Joc Pederson looked good out of the leadoff role
- Andrew Toles made a nice play in LF taking a fly ball right off the top of the wall, and then came back and got a clutch single to tie the game at 4 in the 6th.
1st place Diamondback preview for 4/21/17
The Diamondbacks head home after a quick California road trip that saw them go 4 – 5 against the Giants/Dodgers/Padres. They had started the trip 6 – 1 and in 1st place, they ended it 10 – 6 and tied for 1st place with the Rockies.
This team has alot going for it but I see two main problems with the current makeup of the team if they plan on competing for 162 games. They have little depth, the best depth they have is a major league shortstop stashed at AAA in Ketel Marte. The other problem is the bullpen.
If the Diamondbacks can stay healthy this team might compete all summer if they can do something with the bullpen. So far the bullpen has been adequate but no team with Fernando Rodney as their closer has made the postseason for a reason. Rodney has pitched in the postseason as recently as 2015 but not as the closer. The rotation is not spectacular but has a solid pitcher manning every spot in the rotation. The lineup is producing as expected.
The Good:
The team is extremely healthy. They don’t have one player of note on the DL.
Paul Goldschmidt is still the first baseman and as baseball moves toward the power game, Goldy is trying his hand at being a slash and dash 1st baseman. Last year Goldy saw his slug% drop from .570 to .489 but he stole 32 bases. This year Goldy has four stolen bases with two home runs. I’m not sure the Diamondbacks want their 1st baseman to end the year with more stolen bases than home runs. On the plus side, Goldy is doing something rarely seen in baseball history. At 142 home runs, and 103 stolen bases, Goldy is the rare 1st baseman with at least 140 home runs and 100 stolen bases.
Player HR SB PA SLG OPS Pos Lou Gehrig 493 102 9663 .632 1.080 *3/H976 Jeff Bagwell 449 202 9431 .540 .948 *3/HD9 Andres Galarraga 399 128 8916 .499 .846 *3H/D5 Derrek Lee 331 104 7963 .495 .859 *3/HD Mickey Vernon 172 137 9838 .428 .787 *3H/79 Paul Goldschmidt 142 103 3423 .523 .922 *3/HD
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/21/2017.
Yazmani Tomas is picking up the slugging slack of Goldy. The expensive Cuban import came on strong in the second half last year and has kept the power going so far in 2017. Tomas doesn’t walk much and his defense is horrific to the eyes, but he does bring the thunder.
Jake Lamb had a great 1st half last year (.983 OPS) but dropped off precipitously in the second half (.663 OPS). This year he’s back at it with another strong spring. He is a young player but so far in his career, he does have this fascinating split going on:
Split PA OBP SLG OPS tOPS+ April/March 192 .401 .561 .962 146 May 101 .366 .544 .911 132 June 174 .328 .538 .866 119 July 166 .325 .477 .802 104 August 282 .277 .360 .637 64 Sept/Oct 267 .311 .376 .687 78
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/21/2017.
Neither AJ Pollock, David Peralta, or Brandon Drury are hitting up to their historical norms so the fact that they are in 1st place without significant contributions from this trio bodes well for them.
The rotation is not spectacular but has a solid pitcher manning every spot in the rotation. After seventeen games their starters are ranked 3rd in the NL by FanGraphs.
Grienke isn’t what he was with the Dodgers but does appear to be someone who can still be the main man in a rotation.
Robbie Ray has evolved into a wild man with a 11.9 K rate and a 5.9 BB rate but so far is keeping runs off the board. Something will change, either the walk rate will get better or runners will start scoring.
Shelby Millers looks very much like the guy that pitched for the Cardinals and Braves. Not great, but adequate. He’s certainly pitching better right now than Dansby Swanson is hitting.
Patrick Corbin may be the weak link. Before his TJ surgery in 2014 he had been a worthy all-star. He has been unable to get back to that level but is at least pitching every fifth day. In four starts he’s made two good starts and two bad starts.
Taijuan Walker might have the best stuff in the rotation, and the once highly touted Mariner prospect is holding steady so far.
The Bad:
Nothing really stands out. They are 11 – 6 after all. The bullpen has been better than I expected. The only real problems have been the offensive output of AJ Pollock, David Peralta, and Brandon Drury. I expect that to pick up but other than Pollock we aren’t talking about offensive juggernauts.
Eventually, I expect the lack of depth to put a dent in their postseason aspirations but for now things are going well for the Diamondbacks.
Fun Facts:
Per DB announcer, Owings OD 2nd in 2015, OD Centerfield in 2016, and today he is the opening day shortstop
— Phil Gurnee (@meercatjohn) April 2, 2017
MLB storylines – from Storen to Thames
Drew Storen threw an immaculate inning on 4/18. Until Tuesday I had never heard the term but it means the pitcher struck out the side on nine pitches. My first thought was it can’t be that rare since Juan Nicasio did the same thing last year, but it turns out only 76 pitchers had turned the trick so it is rarer than a no-hitter.
Eric Thames hit another home run last night giving him eight home runs and the major league lead in just about every offensive category. The American export to Korea who was imported back to the US has blown the doors off any expectations. He was Barry Bonds in Korea and so far he’s been Barry Bonds in the US.
It is possible that Ichiro Suzuki homered in his final at-bat at Safeco field. Ichiro had not hit a home run at Safeco since 2012.
Jason Vargas was a journeyman pitcher his whole career. He had TJ in 2015 and came back last year in Sept and pitched a few games. I really thought his career as a member of a rotation was in jeopardy but he has started 2017 as though they attached the arm of Sandy Koufax to him. It has only been three starts but so far he has thrown 20 innings, given up only one run, 14 hits, walked two, and struck out twenty-three. Even Clayton Kershaw is jealous of those numbers.
Bryce Harper hit two more home runs off of Julio Teheran this week. The Brave ace has now given up seven home runs in only thirty-three at-bats to Harper. I think the new rule that MLB put in place this year would save him four pitches and whiplash.
The Bluejays are 3 – 11 after winning 89 games last year. Imagine the pieces they might have to sell at the trade deadline if they don’t right the ship.
Dodgers, Yesterday and Today 