Padre Preview 05/05/17 – Castaways & Prospects
The Padres have been about as bad as I expected. The rotation of castaways is fulfilling their destiny but it is the offense that has been the bigger problem for the last place bound Padres.
According to FanGraphs, their starting pitching is 10th in the league which means five teams have been worse. Which is kind of surprising when you consider the rotation consists of Perdomo, Weaver, Cahill, Richard, and Chacin. Cahill and Perdomo have been effective, so maybe the Padres did find a future starter in Perdomo. No one really knew what they had with him being a Rule 5 pick in 2016 but he seems to be growing into this role. Everyone else is simply a placeholder.
The bullpen which I thought could be a strength is 9th in the NL but the closer Brandon Mauer and left-handed setup man Brad Hand are doing great work. Strangely enough, Quackenbush was recalled, hurled four scoreless innings, and was rewarded by being sent back to AAA. I guess they feel they have lots of better options. Of course, they do.
It is the offense, not the pitching that has the Padres fighting the Giants for the last place. They are 15th of 15 NL teams. With a team wOBA of .287 let’s find out who is underperforming.
It is not Wil Myers who is having a fantastic season and would be a slam dunk to be the lone All-Star rep for the Padres if not for the logjam of fantastic 1st baseman in the NL. Just to remind you who those are – Ryan Zimmerman (Mr. April), Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt, Eric Thames, and Freddie fucking Freeman. The top six first baseman in wOBA are all NL 1st baseman.
Rookie CF Manuel Margot is holding his own as their leadoff hitter. He’s not setting the world on fire but he’s been adequate.
Solarte moved to 2nd base and he’s also been adequate at 2nd. He’s hitting, just not like he did in 2016.
Shortstop Erick Aybar has been bad, but he’s not the worst in the NL. That honor belongs to Dansby Swanson who got Dave Stewart a lot of flack when he was traded for Shelby Miller. Swanson will recover but man, has he sucked in 2017.
Ryan Schimpf is his own story. The man owns a .143 batting average but has an OBP over .300. They should change the three outcome award to the Ryan Schimpf award.
The biggest culprit is Hunter Renfroe the behemoth right fielder who crushed the Dodgers last Sept when they visited Petco. Renfroe has not been able to carry the Sept success into the 2017 season and currently sports a wOBA of .259. That is not the worst in the NL for right fielders, both Cargo and Granderson have struggled more.
Jabari Blash has been brought up to help play LF. The speedy Jankowski is on the DL. Jankowski had replaced the injured Alex Dickerson so now they are three deep on the depth chart. Jabari is big. That is all I got, he’s looks awful so far. Cory Spangenberg the infielder has also been playing a little LF and has been average so far. He looks like he could be an average player.
Austin Hedges started out slow got a little hot and hit a bunch of home runs in mid-late April but his offense over the last seven days has been non-existent.
Over the past seven days:
Hot:
Myers 9 for 28, Spangenberg 7 for 21
Cold:
Margot 6 for 25, 1 XBH, Aybar 5 for 24, 1 XBH, Hedges 4 for 23, 1BH, Renfroe 2 for 21, 1 XBH
Injury Report:
| Travis Jankowski | Foot | 10-Day DL |
| Jarred Cosart | Hamstring | 10-Day DL |
| Carter Capps | Elbow | 10-Day DL |
| Christian Friedrich | Side | 10-Day DL |
| Buddy Baumann | Undisclosed | 10-Day DL |
| Alex Dickerson | Back | 60-Day DL |
| Robbie Erlin | Elbow | 60-Day DL |
Edwin Rios going for two POTW honors in a row
Edwin Rios won the Texas League player of the week for the week ending 04/30/17.
Rios went 13-for-24 with four doubles and six RBI over the six games that earned him honors, good for a .542/.538/.708 battling line. Rios’ best performance came April 24, when he was 5-for-5 with two doubles and four RBI.
Not willing to settle for one player of the week, Rios is going for two in a row. His stats over the last ten games will blow your mind:
35 AB, 16 Hits, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 3 BB, and a .457 BA.
This week Rios has three home runs in only seven at-bats. His TSL for the season is .380 / .414 / .663.
Baseball America checked on him:
Edwin Rios, 3b, Dodgers. Few minor leaguers have been as hot of late as Rios. In the past 10 games, Rios is 16-for-35, and that includes two homers Thursday as Double-A Tulsa beat Arkansas (Mariners) 3-2. Rios drove in all three runs and now has six homers. The physical lefthanded hitter is now slashing .380/.414/.663
Steven Van Worth checked in back on April 30th:
After the series in Northwest Arkansas Rios felt the need to tweak his swing after two hitless outings. Since then he has faced Seattle’s top pitching prospects, Dylan Unsworth and Max Povse showing his continuous improvements in the box going 11-for 20 in a five-game hitting streak since 4/24. He discussed his batting tweaks with Michael Peng from milb.com after going 5-for-5 at OneOK Park against the Arkansas Travelers.
Rios is turning himself into the best positional trading chip the Dodgers have. He’s blocked at 1st base by Cody Bellinger, and he’s blocked at 3rd base (his natural position) by the long term deal Justin Turner signed this winter. Destroying AA would suggest he is close to the major leagues.
Don’t be surprised if Edwin Rios makes his major league debut for an organization not named the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Favorite LAD players by position?
Sometimes the comments at TBLA are stories within themselves. Yesterday they got off on the tangent of Best LAD lineup based on season and that transgressed into Favorite LAD Lineup based simply on players you saw and liked.
I’m going to take a swing at the favorite player lineup. Some of these would be easy for me, some hard.
Catcher – very easy, Mike Piazza because he was great and because he is still one of my top five favorite Dodgers.
1st base – this is tough for me. I grew up with Wes Parker, followed by Steve Garvey. Parker just didn’t do it for me. I enjoyed Garvey, he was a unique short first baseman. I’m going to hedge my bets here and say Steve Garvey but my feeling is that Cody Bellinger won’t take long to become my favorite LAD 1st baseman. I enjoy 1st baseman who can pick it, run, and also have power. It is crazy that after watching LAD 1st baseman for almost 50 years that we may have one who can do all three. Even if I may have to wait a few more years before he’s the regular 1st baseman. Parker played the outfield so I guess Bellinger can do the same until his time.
2nd Base – Lee Lacy – Yeah I know, complete head scratcher. I have a specific reason for not liking Lopes, and a specific reason for liking Lee Lacy. I will acknowledge that Davey Lopes had a brilliant Dodger career and is clearly the greatest LAD to ever play the position but this is about favorites.
Shortstop – No LAD has ever captured my imagination like Cory Seager. If Cody Seager had not shown up, I’m not sure who I would have put there, I haven’t been a fan of many Dodger shortstops. Would probably have to go back to Dodger Thoughts or TBLA archives to see who I put there five years or even ten years ago. That would be interesting, I do wonder how much I’ve changed my mind, I’m a mercurial sort.
3rd – This is tougher. Three excellent candidates in Cey / Beltre / Turner. I’m sure if Beltre had spent his career as a LAD he would beat out Ron Cey. But Ron Cey it is, I really enjoyed watching him especially in four world series. Justin Turner is gaining, I love watching him play.
CF – It should be Matt Kemp but it is Jimmy Wynn
RF – It has to be Reggie Smith, the greatest RF I’ve seen play Dodger Stadium. With all due respect to Shawn Green.
LF – Gary Sheffield was easily the best hitting LF in LAD history but I never liked Sheffield. I loved Pedro Guerrero and since he played enough LF, he takes the position.
Left-Hand-Starting-Pitcher – I never saw Sandy Koufax pitch except on video. This comes down to Clayton Kershaw and Fernando. Since Fernandomania was one of the greatest moments in my history and culminated with a World Championship, Fernando takes the spot even while acknowledging that Kershaw is the greatest regular season pitcher in LAD history.
Right-Hand-Starting-Pitcher – Yeah, it is Orel Hershiser. Loved the bulldog. If I’m tough on Clayton in October it is because of Orel/Sandy. Don Sutton gets an honorable mention because he was brilliant so many times for me in person and because he threw a shutout at my first game at the Ravine.
Right-Hand-Relief Pitcher – Gagne Gagne Gagne, though I was a big fan of 1974 Mike Marshall and Jansen may end up taking this spot. If you never saw a game that Gagne saved you missed one of the great Chavez Ravine experiences. His roid issues were a problem for me, but they can’t take away the sheer joy I enjoyed as a fan when he came into the game. Never saw anything like it before or since.
Left-Hand-Relief-Pitcher – Something about Hung-Chih Kuo struck a nerve with me as a fan. I always liked him. Jim Brewer, Terry Forster and especially Steve Howe get shoutouts. I never saw Perranowski pitch as a Dodger or he’d probably be the guy.
Probably no surprise that six of these players came from the 1974 – 1981 run of brilliant Dodger teams. When you go to the World Series four times while growing up with the team they leave a mark on you.
Struggling Loons
Just about one year ago the Dodgers drafted Gavin Lux with their first pick, and twentieth pick overall. He was considered the best SS in the draft not named Delvin Perez who was picked by the Cardinals with the twenty-third pick. Perez has yet to play in 2017 and Lux so far in 2017 has forgotten how to hit.
Lux got a late start to his 2017 and didn’t even get into a game until April 20th. You know that saying “making up for lost time”. That is not happening here. Lux is four for thirty-six, and all four hits have been singles giving him a TSL of .111 / .313 / .111. The only saving grace has been the ten walks.
But hey, at least he’s not Oneil Cruz who can’t hit or field in his first taste of baseball in the United States. Cruz has finally stopped his error a game antics but he still has ten errors. To be fair he has improved, I think he had ten errors a week ago, and they were making him play both 3rd and SS. Hitting, however, has not improved. Of his twelve hits, eleven have been singles. The SS/3rd is a tall dude at 6’6 and is just eighteen so I don’t want to be too rough on him. The Dodgers were probably a little too aggressive with the kid sticking him into a tough offensive environment for his first taste of the minors. His TSL right now is .141 / .213 / .176
Mitch Hansen was drafted in the 2nd round in 2015 and had a nice 2016 after a dismal debut in 2015. Like Lux, he started late this year, and like Lux, he is struggling to hit. He had several good games from April 24th – April 26th but that has been the extent of his offense in 2017. Of his measly ten hits, six of them came in that three-game stretch. Since that mini hot streak, he’s gone one for thirteen. Does his sound familiar? Of his ten hits, only two are for extra bases.
Cody Thomas isn’t quite the prospect the others are on this list. Thomas tore the cover off the ball for Ogden in 2016. Many hitters do that, and many of the same hitters struggle when promoted to the Midwest league. Cody Thomas is following that path. He hasn’t been as bad as the others on this list but he’s much older than they are. At this point, Thomas has a TSL of .183 / .272 / .366 but his biggest problem continues to be making contact. 30 strikeouts in 86 at-bats which is in line with what he did in 2016. I guess that is why David Hood felt he was a long shot. Rightly so.
MLB Prospect Rank:
- Gavin Lux – 7th
- Oneil Cruz – 21st
- Mitch Hanson – not ranked by MLB in 2017, but he was ranked 16th by TBLA prospect writer David Hood and was ranked 25th in 2017 by MLB
One final note. AJ Alexy who wowed everyone in April and won our Monthly Farm Factory award, rewarded our confidence by not being able to get three outs in his first start in May. Crap
One fairly tough decision down, two to go
The Dodgers activated Franklyn Gutierrez off the DL and sent Scott Van Slyke to AAA. Van Slyke will join Trayce Thompson in an effort to find his swing with full-time at-bats. The last time Scott Van Slyke was in the minors that did not involve a rehab assignment was 2013.
This seemed like the obvious move. Just like Josh Fields, Scott Van Slyke should walk to his flight because it would not surprise me if Guiterrez gets hurts before the game is over.
If Guiterrez can stay healthy and hit, it could be a long AAA summer for Van Slyke/Eibner/Thompson.
Later on this week the Dodgers will be activating Logan Forsythe and have to make a decision on who gets sent down. Chris Taylor has to be the favorite to get sent to AAA even though he has been very productive while Forsythe was on the disabled list. If it was only about production, Chase Utley would be waived but I’m sure he’ll bounce out of his slump. Though as Chase has aged and Taylor has improved, it is very possible that having Chris Taylor on the 25-man roster is best for the team, even accounting for all the good teamwork stuff that Chase is reportedly good at.
On Friday Joc Pederson is due back. At that point, the Dodgers have to make a huge decision. For me, the decision is obvious, put Adrian on the DL and install Bellinger as your everyday 1st baseman while Adrian heals. I don’t expect the Dodgers to make that decision.
If the Dodgers do what I expect they will do, the team will look the same as the opening day positional roster except without Scott Van Slyke. This would leave them with only one left-handed pinch hitter (Chase Utley), and one first baseman when Toles/Pederson start against RHP. On the days that Adrian sits, I would expect Logan Forsythe to play 1st base.
That doesn’t look to me like the best use of the Dodger roster so here is hoping they surprise me.
Give the people what they want
Ha ha, yesterday someone started following me on twitter for the simple reason I had made a reference to Dennis Santana. That got me one of my best responses to a farm report so in that vein here is an in depth report on Dennis Santana the best pitching prospect in the system that no one has heard of.
The only reason I’ve paid attention to Santana is because of Nate Purcell who comments over at TBLA. He usually has a good read on prospects and even though David Hood didn’t put Santana in his top 60 that didn’t mean that Santana was not a prospect. MLB has Santana as the Dodgers 27th top prospect.
Fangraphs didn’t rank him but gave him a shout-out on their top 21:
Dennis Santana, RHP, 1.7 KATOH+ WAR – A converted shortstop, Santana throws a future plus-plus sinker and has a potential plus slider. The command is well below average but Santana is a solid athlete and his walk rate dropped this year. He’s a potential late-inning arm.
For detail about Dennis Santana, Dustin Nosler is the man. Dustin based his scouting report on a game he saw in person on April 7th.
Future: At 21, there’s no need to rush Santana. He’s in his third season of pitching, so there isn’t a lot of mileage on his arm. And the Dodgers have been pretty solid at converting position players to the mound in recent years (Kenley Jansen, Pedro Baez, Blake Smith — yes, he made it to the majors with the White Sox) and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Santana make it to the bigs as a reliever. His fastball could play up, and if he tightens the slider there’s an outside chance of him being a late-inning, high-leverage reliever because of his poise. If not, he should be a solid middle relief-type. His improved command/control (while still not plus) has increased his chances of reaching the majors. I ranked him No. 33 coming into the season, and he’s enjoying success in the California League so far. I’d expect him to make a not-insignificant jump up the rankings come midseason.
The key takeaway I have of Santana is that he’s a converted shortstop who has only been pitching a few years. Maybe everyone is underselling his upside because his stats in the offensive minded California League have been outstanding. With each outing he has increased his strike-out totals.
Date IP H ER BB SO HR 2017-04-08 3.2 3 0 0 3 0 2017-04-14 4.0 1 0 1 4 0 2017-04-20 4.1 8 2 0 4 1 2017-04-25 6.0 6 1 0 7 0 2017-04-30 5.2 4 0 2 8 0
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/2/2017.
If command was an issue it certainly has not been in 2017 with only three walks in twenty-three innings. The last time someone was pitching like this in the Cal League that no one had heard of was last year when Brock Stewart did it, and he eventually went from an unranked Dodger prospect to pitching for the Dodgers. And oh yeah, he was a converted 3rd baseman.
Should I stay or should I go?
The Dodgers are coming up upon a moment of decision. They brought up their best prospect Cody Bellinger to fill the void of Joc Pederson who hit the ten day DL. The first few games saw Bellinger struggle which led to Dave Roberts proclaiming that no matter what Bellinger did he was going back to AAA when Joc was eligible to come off the DL.
Before Bellinger got the call three Dodgers were struggling. Joc Pederson, Andrew Toles, and Adrian Gonzalez. It just so happens that Bellinger could play any of those positions. Toles got the message and went on a tear putting up a .942 OPS since being asked to play CF. Adrian didn’t get the message.
I don’t know if Dave Roberts said what he said in earnest or not. Maybe he was being the player psychologist trying to take all the pressure off of Bellinger. Whatever the reason, Bellinger himself has been on a tear, and now posts a .993 OPS in limited at-bats. Bellinger has shown all his skills, power, speed, and the ability to play a good left field.
The one skill he has yet to show is if he can play 1st base.
Adrian Gonzalez has never gone on the DL in his major league career. If he really is a team player it is time he did, and get that elbow cleared up, because right now the best option for the Dodgers to win, is a healthy Bellinger at 1st base and Adrian getting healthy. That could change quickly, but you’d be hard-pressed to convince me that Bellinger shouldn’t be on this team come Friday.
Dodgers aren’t cleaning up
Many things are going right for the Dodgers but the number one problem for the Dodgers in 2017 is the lack of production from the clean-up spot.
The numbers don’t lie, the LAD are 25th in wRC+ out of 30 teams. The Angels are right below the Dodgers, maybe something in the water in Los Angeles?
| Team | PA | HR | R | RBI | w OBA | wRC+ |
| WSN | 116 | 9 | 24 | 29 | 0.48 | 193.38 |
| OAK | 103 | 10 | 19 | 17 | 0.43 | 187.29 |
| SEA | 112 | 7 | 14 | 23 | 0.41 | 177.13 |
| NYY | 105 | 4 | 16 | 17 | 0.40 | 163.95 |
| ATL | 105 | 7 | 14 | 22 | 0.41 | 152.90 |
| STL | 108 | 5 | 14 | 18 | 0.41 | 152.82 |
| CIN | 109 | 9 | 20 | 21 | 0.39 | 140.13 |
| TBR | 118 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 0.36 | 139.50 |
| CHW | 101 | 4 | 14 | 16 | 0.36 | 135.57 |
| MIA | 107 | 7 | 14 | 16 | 0.35 | 118.47 |
| BOS | 109 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 0.34 | 115.62 |
| NYM | 109 | 9 | 14 | 20 | 0.35 | 115.36 |
| BAL | 104 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 0.33 | 110.90 |
| CLE | 110 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 0.32 | 105.73 |
| MIN | 100 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 0.32 | 105.46 |
| ARI | 119 | 5 | 19 | 22 | 0.34 | 105.15 |
| SDP | 112 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 0.32 | 97.85 |
| CHC | 116 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 0.32 | 97.10 |
| SFG | 114 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 0.31 | 96.31 |
| DET | 109 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 0.30 | 91.75 |
| MIL | 116 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 0.32 | 90.03 |
| PHI | 103 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 0.29 | 79.58 |
| HOU | 113 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0.28 | 79.18 |
| COL | 110 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 0.31 | 72.32 |
| PIT | 106 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 0.27 | 68.08 |
| TOR | 115 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 0.27 | 67.85 |
| LAD | 116 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 0.27 | 66.65 |
| LAA | 115 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0.24 | 53.90 |
| KCR | 100 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0.23 | 39.16 |
| TEX | 111 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 0.23 | 37.62 |
This lack of production lies on the feet of Adrian Gonzalez, Yazmani Grandal, and Yusiel Puig
| Name | PA | HR | RBI | SLG | OPS | w OBA | wRC+ |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 55 | 0 | 6 | 0.35 | 0.692 | 0.303 | 89.27 |
| Yasiel Puig | 36 | 1 | 5 | 0.34 | 0.706 | 0.318 | 98.89 |
| Yasmani Grandal | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -100.00 |
| Franklin Gutierrez | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.708 | 0.313 | 95.74 |
| Scott Van Slyke | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -100.00 |
| Chase Utley | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -100.00 |
Ryan Zimmerman owns April
Last year Ryan Zimmerman looked like a 1st baseman who needed to find a bench. He was the weakest link on the Nationals but his manager continued to bat him 4th or 5th in the lineup. Does that sound familiar?
Fast forward to May 1st, 2017, and you will find that Ryan Zimmerman just had the best March/April OPS split over the past three years based on a minimum of 50 plate appearances.
Player Split Year OPS PA HR RBI Ryan Zimmerman April/March 2017 1.345 96 11 29 Freddie Freeman April/March 2017 1.283 101 9 14 Bryce Harper April/March 2017 1.281 114 9 26 Eric Thames April/March 2017 1.276 103 11 19 Adrian Gonzalez April/March 2015 1.222 88 8 19
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/2/2017.
As you can see, 2017 had a quite a few noteworthy performances. Only the 2015 performance by Adrian Gonzalez can crack the top five. It was just two years ago that Adrian was smoking when the gate opened.
The Nationals have three of the best hitters going right now as the clock turns to May. The Dodgers have two in Turner and Seager but neither are close to doing the lofty work of Zimmerman/Harper. They are more in line with Daniel Murphy.
I love these lists. The Brewers have two catchers on the list in Bandy/Pina and they are right next to each other otherwise I’d never have noticed.
Player Split Year Onbase_plus_slugging_vs_split PA OPS Ryan Zimmerman April/March 2017 262 96 1.345 Bryce Harper April/March 2017 250 114 1.281 Freddie Freeman April/March 2017 249 101 1.283 Eric Thames April/March 2017 246 103 1.276 Aaron Judge April/March 2017 214 90 1.161 Mike Trout April/March 2017 213 115 1.151 Miguel Sano April/March 2017 208 97 1.127 Mitch Haniger April/March 2017 190 95 1.054 Zack Cozart April/March 2017 190 85 1.053 Matt Kemp April/March 2017 189 58 1.077 Jedd Gyorko April/March 2017 187 67 1.053 Michael Conforto April/March 2017 187 66 1.055 Aaron Hicks April/March 2017 186 57 1.042 Justin Turner April/March 2017 185 99 1.026 Avisail Garcia April/March 2017 182 93 1.029 Eugenio Suarez April/March 2017 181 94 1.025 Nelson Cruz April/March 2017 180 108 1.025 Khris Davis April/March 2017 180 99 1.032 Francisco Lindor April/March 2017 177 109 1.018 Corey Dickerson April/March 2017 176 96 1.015 Paul Goldschmidt April/March 2017 174 117 .983 Jett Bandy April/March 2017 174 53 1.010 Manny Pina April/March 2017 172 52 .986 Yoenis Cespedes April/March 2017 170 75 .992 Jose Ramirez April/March 2017 168 103 .982 Justin Upton April/March 2017 166 82 .968 Daniel Murphy April/March 2017 164 111 .969 David Freese April/March 2017 164 67 .954 Corey Seager April/March 2017 164 107 .961 Steven Souza April/March 2017 163 108 .954 Mark Reynolds April/March 2017 163 105 .968 Nolan Arenado April/March 2017 163 110 .971 Ryan Braun April/March 2017 162 99 .960 Starlin Castro April/March 2017 160 98 .947 Jay Bruce April/March 2017 160 100 .954 Tyler Flowers April/March 2017 159 54 .916 Matt Wieters April/March 2017 157 85 .934 Matt Davidson April/March 2017 155 54 .946 Evan Gattis April/March 2017 154 65 .918 Lucas Duda April/March 2017 154 50 .931 Charlie Blackmon April/March 2017 151 118 .925 Michael Brantley April/March 2017 150 85 .916 Kris Bryant April/March 2017 150 115 .907
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/2/2017.
Dodgers, Yesterday and Today 