Baez in, Joc out
I had surmised that Farmer would make the team, and felt that Joc would be the last man standing with eleven pitchers and fourteen hitters but the Dodgers decided they needed twelve pitchers thus giving up a bench spot. The pitching staff took a change when Avilan pulled up lame thus paving the way for Pedro Baez and Ross Stripling.
As expected Ryu will watch from the sidelines.
My only complaint is the short bench in a short series. You have three starters who should be able to give you innings, and someone who can run off of the bench might prove more useful than an extra relief pitcher like Ross Stripling. Maybe they use Ross as the pinch runner?
If Pedro is indeed fixed, he could prove useful but it would take a manager with big balls to put Pedro into a highly leveraged situation given his past history in October.
The lack of confidence in Joc is really something to consider this winter. No way can anyone think of him as a Dodger starting center fielder or left fielder anymore. He’ll have to earn his way back to that spot and one wonders if he’ll even the chance. They might simply go get someone for one of those two spots. But that is four weeks away from talking about. Right now it is all about tonight.
Who will be the key catalyst for the 2017 NLDS?
I’m going to go with Corey Seager
All eyes on Kershaw & Morrow
Clayton Kershaw has started four straight game one NLDS, and while this will be the first time he will start against a division rival in the NLDS everything else should seem familiar. In those previous four starts, the Dodgers have won two games and lost two games.
When they have won game one, they have advanced to the NLCS. When they have lost game one, they have not. Simple
Only one time has Clayton been outpitched and that was in 2015. In 2014 he had been brilliant for six innings, his competitor had been knocked out much earlier, and the Dodgers asked him to do something he was unable to do. Game one of 2014 still stands as the single biggest disappointment in all the years of watching Clayton Kershaw pitch.
That, and the poor performances in the two game six NLCS games when the Dodgers were bleeding out and instead of applying a tourniquet he pushed on the artery.
But, for the most part, Kershaw has been good enough to pitch the Dodgers to a victory in these NLDS game ones. Kershaw will be facing possibly his most formidable offensive team, and as we saw with Chris Sale last night, just being the best pitcher in the regular season doesn’t mean squat in October.
Year Series Opp Rslt IP H ER BB SO GSc Exited 2013 NLDS g1 ATL W6-1 7.0 3 1 3 12 76 7b 3 out a5 2014 NLDS g1 STL L9-10 6.2 8 8 0 10 36 7t -2- 2 out d1 2015 NLDS g1 NYM L1-3 6.2 4 3 4 11 61 7t 123 2 out d1 2016 NLDS g1 WSN W4-3 5.0 8 3 1 7 45 5b 3 out a1
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/6/2017.
Either the game will be close enough that Brandon Morrow must pitch in a highly leveraged situation or the Dodgers have blown open the game. I will not subscribe to the idea that the Diamondbacks blew open Clayton Kershaw. Which means that Morrow is the man that has to get the ball to Kenley Jansen with the Dodgers still in a position to win the game.
Morrow has been brilliant this year but none of that will matter if he can’t be the October bridge. The history of broken bridges is long in recent October Dodger lore. Broxton, Kuo, Sherrill, JP Howell, Baez, and Blanton have all failed to do the one job required of them after doing the job time after time during the summer.
Kershaw/Morrow/Jansen sounds like an unbeatable trio. Let us hope it is.
Because as I said up top, It is quite simple, win game one, win the series.
Walker versus Kershaw
With the Diamondbacks blowing through their top two pitchers to win the play-in game on Wednesday it seems likely the Diamondbacks will turn to Taijuan Walker who wasn’t even on the play-in game roster. Something that MLB needs to correct. If you want to limit the advantage of the wild card team, they need to put in their 25-man roster for the play-in game and the NLDS. I would be saying this even if the Dodgers were in the play-in game. Jon Weisman back in 2016 put me onto the loophole of the play-in game 25 man roster.
Proposed: Wild Card teams should have to set 25-man roster now through Division Series, instead of picking 25 players for just one game.
— Jon Weisman (@jonweisman) October 4, 2016
On paper, this was the best possible outcome for the Dodgers as Robbie Ray loomed like a potential season killer if the Dodgers had to face him two times in a five-game series. Now it looks as though he will start game two but probably have a very short least, and hopefully, there won’t be a game five for him to complete his mastery over the Dodgers.
Taijuan Walker will be another young pitcher with a great future who had a good year that will be making his first postseason start. That has not bode well for the pitchers he will follow this postseason with Severino and Gray combining for only four outs, eleven hits, and seven earned runs as starters for their respective teams.
Clayton Kershaw needs to pitch well enough to beat Taijuan Walker for the Dodgers to have any chance in this series. If he can’t do that, he will need to beat Robbie Ray in a game five. It would be a good idea to do the former so he won’t have to deal with the latter. Actually, I think he has to do the former just so he will have a shot at the latter.
I have no idea what to expect from Kershaw. He will be facing a very potent offensive team, one that has more firepower than the Dodgers. The gauntlet of Goldy/Martinez/Lamb is somewhat offset by Lamb not being able to hit lefthanders, but Martinez and Goldy feast on them so I’ll call it a draw. Iannetta is no slouch and neither is Pollock. Against left-hand pitching there is not an easy out in the Diamondback lineup.
The Diamondbacks are built to beat the Dodgers strength, the left-handed heavy rotation.
Player Split Year HR PA BA OBP SLG OPS J.D. Martinez vs LHP 2017 6 65 .309 .400 .745 1.145 Nick Ahmed vs LHP 2017 2 53 .396 .453 .625 1.078 Paul Goldschmidt vs LHP 2017 10 162 .311 .422 .591 1.013 Chris Iannetta vs LHP 2017 6 94 .300 .404 .563 .967 A.J. Pollock vs LHP 2017 7 152 .277 .329 .525 .854 Brandon Drury vs LHP 2017 3 139 .271 .302 .436 .738 Ketel Marte vs LHP 2017 2 76 .242 .342 .379 .721 David Peralta vs LHP 2017 2 148 .269 .338 .373 .711 Jeff Mathis vs LHP 2017 1 54 .213 .315 .362 .677 Adam Rosales vs LHP 2017 2 59 .200 .237 .382 .619 Daniel Descalso vs LHP 2017 2 90 .169 .289 .299 .588 Jake Lamb vs LHP 2017 5 156 .144 .269 .288 .557 Gregor Blanco vs LHP 2017 1 63 .217 .242 .283 .525 Chris Herrmann vs LHP 2017 2 47 .156 .191 .311 .503 Rey Fuentes vs LHP 2017 0 22 .190 .227 .190 .418
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/5/2017.
However, Kershaw/Hill are not ordinary left-handers and it would behoove them to pitch like it.
James Earl Keen gets me feeling good again
I needed a show to lift my spirits and the James Earl Keen band came through for me on a night that started with me as depressed as I could remember. Between Dad’s dementia /Brother Tom’s Parkinsons / Harvey/Irma/Mexican Earthquakes/Maria/North Korea/Las Vegas/Tom Petty/ I was feeling pretty low as I headed to the El Rey Theatre last night.
Nature is always a bitch out of control, but goddammit Las Vegas was senseless and easily prevented. The idea you can’t legislate evil is pure bullshit. Whatever you feel about the 2nd amendment, you can’t be sane and argue against automatic weapons and the products that create them.
How could I put Tom Petty in the same sentence as all those other catastrophes? Man, I don’t know, it is very possible I’m simply not a good human being, but I do know his death hit me harder than all the other misery being commiserated on the human race right now. I guess it is the old death of familiarity compared to strangers. Not that I knew Tom Petty personally, but I have known Tom Petty for all of my adult life.
I have most of his catalog, I have seen him numerous times, and would have seen him at the Hollywood Bowl but I needed to see my dad 650 miles away instead. I took an Uber ride from my car rental to my home when I got back and the young Uber lady driver told me that she had taken a client to the bowl to see Petty and how much she would rather have been going to the show instead of being the driver. We were easily 30 years removed in age, but we had one thing in common, the brilliance of Tom Petty.
Anyway, I’m not a huge Keen fan, but I do enjoy his music and he has a few songs that are real treasures. I heard he puts on a kick-ass show so I got a single ticket for Wednesday Night. I had a Senior Softball game last night but it ended by 07:00 so I took the Metro to Hollywood/Highland and walked a block down to Selma and Ubered from there so as not having to make the driver deal with the massive mess of traffic at Hollywood/Highland.
I got there early enough to hear the complete set by the opening act, a trio of ladies named The Wild Reeds with golden voices who had outstanding harmonies.
Still, I was feeling listless. The music they played was nice to listen too, but it wasn’t moving the needle for me. Keen came on about 09:45 and was good. He played the songs I liked but not the five songs I loved. The band was great though and every song was a treat. But it still wasn’t moving my needle. The El Rey was about 3/4 full, just the right amount of space to move around but still have people around you. Some dude moved into my space and started blabbering during the set. It was fortuitous, as I moved from my comfort zone, and into the throng of fans next to the stage. As soon as I moved Keen went into my zone and played the four songs I had wanted to hear. The Mandolin player was on fire, I’ve seen some good Mandolin players including Chris Thile but this guy was smoking. By the time Gringo Honeymoon had ended, the needle had moved, and a little joy had finally touched down.
I had one final request for this evening. I had read on twitter coming in that Bruce Springsteen had opened his set with a dedication to Tom Petty. Keen did two encores but no Tom Petty. I started to leave feeling a little disappointed when he came back on the stage by himself and told the audience “I’m always clueless but the band without my knowledge has put together a song for Tom Petty that they would like to close the night with”.
And with that, the band walked back on stage and lit into an American Girl. It is not my favorite Tom Petty tune but the band rocked the tune with a ferocious tilt that it deserved with the mandolin player doing the vocals. It brought tears to my eyes. I used to be a very sentimental person but the realities of a life lived for 58 years has blown most of that away. It felt good to feel the moistness running down my cheeks for joy and not for sadness.
Thanks to the Keen band, for putting a caper on a night I needed.
Feeling good again, indeed.
Here are some you tube videos but they aren’t of the band I saw. No Mandolin player.
Predictions are fun
SB Nation did their postseason baseball predictions and only one of nine contributing editors picked the Dodgers. Eric Stephen who blogs about the Dodgers picked the Nationals in the NLCS, while Grant Brisbee who blogs about the Giants picked the Dodgers for the NLCS. No homers there.
I kind of think the Indians will pull off the same stunt the Royals did. The Royals lost in seven games in 2014, but won the World Series in five games in 2015. The Indians lost in seven games in 2016 so I’m going to go with them to win the World Series in 2017.
Last year they took the Cubs to seven games without Carlos Carrasco, and he’ll be there this year in top form. Kluber is as good as ever. The bullpen still reigns supreme with Andrew Miller.
Who will they play?
I think the Dodgers finally get to the World Series in a strange wicked way. The Rockies win the Wild Card game when Fernando Rodney blows one final big game. The Dodgers take the gift and beat the Rockies. The talented Nationals team is unable to beat the Cubs setting up a rematch of last years NLCS. This time the Dodgers win in a grueling seven-game series with multiple heroes on both sides.
That is what I got, I could be wrong at every level.
Sophomore slamming
The two best players on the Los Angeles Dodgers are a 21-year-old 1st baseman and a 23-year-old shortstop. They will both be ROY winners, and they both will be leaned on very heavily to help the Dodgers move through October.
It seemed that Corey Seager had a very quiet sophomore season, but once the 162 games were done, and you looked back, you saw a season very similar to his outstanding 2016 ROY season.
There he is with a 5.7 fWAR season which I don’t understand. This is one case where the defensive eye test does not match the defensive metrics. Corey is a plus 12 defensively at Fangraphs while I felt his range was as limited as any SS I watched play in 2017.
In 2016 Corey had a 7.4 fWAR on the back of a 136 wRC+. In 2017 he had a 5.7 fWAR season on the back of a 127 wRC+. The difference was his 136 wRC+ and 7.4 were the best in baseball in 2016 for a shortstop. In 2017 the competition was stiffer as Zack Cozart inexplicably put up a 141 wRC+ to lead all shortstops. Corey was just a hair back from leading the league in fWAR for shortstops but Francisco Lindor edged him out at 5.9.
Either way, what you have in Corey Seager is one of the top three shortstops in baseball,
Using the table below which are the combined stats for shortstops since 2016:
- Seager is tied with Lindor for 2nd with 48 home runs
- Seager is 2nd in run scored at 190
- Seager is 2nd in hits at 352
- Seager is 3rd in doubles with 73
- Seager is 2nd in walks with 121
- Seager is 1st in batting average at .302
- Seagers is 2nd in OBP at .370
- Seager is 3rd in Slug% at .497
- Seager is 1st in OPS at .867
Player OPS+ From To Age PA R H 2B HR RBI BB BA OBP SLG OPS Carlos Correa 140 2016 2017 21-22 1141 158 291 61 44 180 128 .291 .373 .492 .866 Corey Seager 130 2016 2017 22-23 1300 190 352 73 48 149 121 .302 .370 .497 .867 Paul DeJong 121 2017 2017 23-23 443 55 119 26 25 65 21 .285 .325 .532 .857 Zack Cozart 116 2016 2017 30-31 1015 147 247 52 40 113 99 .274 .346 .484 .831 Aledmys Diaz 111 2016 2017 25-26 761 102 195 45 24 85 54 .283 .338 .461 .799 Francisco Lindor 111 2016 2017 22-23 1407 198 360 74 48 167 117 .287 .347 .472 .819 Elvis Andrus 109 2016 2017 27-28 1257 175 344 75 28 157 85 .299 .348 .457 .805 Xander Bogaerts 104 2016 2017 23-24 1354 209 348 66 31 151 114 .285 .350 .426 .776 Didi Gregorius 101 2016 2017 26-27 1167 141 308 59 45 157 44 .281 .311 .462 .773 Trevor Story 101 2016 2017 23-24 970 135 221 53 51 154 84 .253 .322 .504 .826
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/3/2017.
Just for fun, in just two years Corey Seager has more home runs as a Dodger shortstop than any LAD shortstop in history.
Player OPS+ HR Age PA BA OBP SLG OPS Corey Seager 133 52 21-23 1413 .305 .374 .502 .876 Bill Russell 83 46 20-37 8021 .263 .310 .338 .648 Rafael Furcal 100 44 28-33 2803 .283 .351 .406 .757 Hanley Ramirez 144 43 28-30 1120 .299 .368 .506 .874 Don Zimmer 69 22 27-32 813 .227 .294 .358 .651 Mariano Duncan 71 20 22-26 1439 .234 .284 .325 .609 Greg Gagne 83 19 34-35 1040 .253 .315 .359 .673 Maury Wills 87 17 26-39 6745 .281 .331 .332 .663 Jimmy Rollins 79 13 36-36 563 .224 .285 .358 .643
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/3/2017.
At 23 how does Corey Seager stack up with LAD history?
- Puig is still the best Age 23 and younger LAD in history but will his static stats hold off the future Bellinger stats?
- Seager ranks 3rd behind Puig and Bellinger and just in front of James Loney. We forget sometimes just how great the first two years were for James Loney.
- One home run behind Tommy Davis with 52
- Adrian Beltre had already amassed over 2500 plate appearances by the age of 23.
Player OPS+ HR From To Age PA BA OBP SLG OPS Pos Yasiel Puig 151 35 2013 2014 22-23 1072 .305 .386 .502 .888 *9/8H7D Cody Bellinger 142 39 2017 2017 21-21 548 .267 .352 .581 .933 /*379H8D Corey Seager 133 52 2015 2017 21-23 1413 .305 .374 .502 .876 *6/H5D James Loney 132 19 2006 2007 22-23 486 .321 .372 .543 .915 *3/H9 Raul Mondesi 123 20 1993 1994 22-23 545 .304 .331 .512 .842 *9/87H Mike Marshall 115 22 1981 1983 21-23 655 .274 .342 .429 .771 *9/3H75 Tommy Davis 115 53 1959 1962 20-23 1594 .308 .341 .471 .812 *785/9H Ron Fairly 114 31 1958 1962 19-23 1245 .273 .373 .429 .803 93/H87 Matt Kemp 111 35 2006 2008 21-23 1134 .299 .342 .474 .816 *98/H7 Joc Pederson 110 26 2014 2015 22-23 623 .207 .347 .402 .748 *8/H97 Todd Hollandsworth 109 17 1995 1996 22-23 641 .281 .340 .430 .770 *7/8H9 Bill Sudakis 106 17 1968 1969 22-23 609 .240 .309 .397 .706 *5/H Jim Lefebvre 106 12 1965 1965 23-23 631 .250 .337 .369 .706 *4/H Willie Crawford 104 23 1964 1970 17-23 1025 .242 .323 .386 .709 7H9/8 Willie Davis 103 44 1960 1963 20-23 1695 .267 .313 .425 .738 *8/H Frank Howard 102 25 1958 1960 21-23 540 .261 .312 .456 .768 *9/7H3 Russell Martin 101 10 2006 2006 23-23 468 .282 .355 .436 .792 *2/HD Steve Garvey 100 17 1969 1972 20-23 669 .254 .304 .397 .701 *5/H364 Adrian Beltre 99 76 1998 2002 19-23 2553 .267 .327 .429 .756 *5/H6
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/3/2017.
Was Shohei Ohtani born or built
As I was reading the Dylan Hernandez piece on Shohei Ohtani the thought came to me that if I was going to build a baseball player, Ohtani-San would be what I’d hope to replicate.
He throws 100 MPH, he can hit a baseball 500 feet, and now I just read he’s as fast as Billy Hamilton.
He can run too. Scouts have timed Ohtani in as few as 3.8 seconds from the batter’s box to first base. That’s as quick as Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon, two of the fastest players in the majors.
Come on, this sounds a little too much for me, so put me in the I’ll believe when I see it.
And I hope to see it in Los Angeles.
Some think the Dodgers might be his future destination but…
Rival organizations view the Dodgers and New York Yankees as the most likely destinations for Ohtani because they are perennial playoff contenders that have extensive histories with Japanese players. But Sasaki didn’t sound convinced, noting that Ohtani chose to play for his local high school instead of a national powerhouse.
The coach recalled what a Fighters executive told Ohtani when he was a high school senior deciding between moving to the United States as a pitcher or remaining in Japan as a two-way player: “Let’s be pioneers and do something no one has ever done before.”
The Dodgers can’t pay him much if he comes over in 2018 but he doesn’t seem as concerned with money as with competition. Ohtani could own this town in ways that Nomo/Kuroda/Darvish never could.
Whoever signs him, I hope they give him a real shot at being a two-way player.
Other pieces on Ohtani:
Whitney McIntosh from SBNation
Whatever team he ends up with, and whatever they decide on doing with his multiple talents, everybody should be looking forward to his hitting and how fun it will be to have it the league just as much as they are looking forward to his pitching prowess.
Shohei Ohtani will get to pick which major league team he plays for in 2018, and all it cost him is a hundred million dollars or two. He has leverage, and he has certainly paid a premium for it. I’m not saying that he can make Theo Epstein bark like a dog if he wants to, but he can probably make Theo Epstein bark like a dog if he wants to.
Harder and harder
As things fall apart around us, the Dodgers offer an empty way to hide from the onslaught of carnage that seems to come at us daily. From my space in Woodland Hills I can do little to combat nature’s power, a wannabe monarch, hate from every side as divisions grow deeper. Death seems to be reigning down more than ever on the innocents. These aren’t soldiers dying in a stupid war, these are just people.
So I write, and I write some more. But it gets harder. I wish I was young enough to be a National Guardsman, a trained second responder, something other than a blogger writing about something as trivial as how many home runs Cody Bellinger hit at age 21.
I feel wrong tweeting about baseball in the shadow of the Vegas tragedy, everything about which is just so hopeless to me.
— Jon Weisman (@jonweisman) October 2, 2017
I give blood, I gave it after Harvey and I’ll see if I can give it again after Vegas. I give some money, but not enough.
I wish I could pray and feel as though it would mean something, but I don’t so I don’t.
Tom Petty also left us today. I loved Tom Petty’s music. Simple and raw. From the first chord I ever heard from “You don’t have to be a refugee” I have listened to Tom Petty, possibly more than any other artist. He didn’t die young and he already left us with his legacy. I feel bad he won’t be able to spend time with the granddaughter he mentioned missing by being on the road this one last time. I’d seen him numerous times and thought very much about seeing him this last time at the Hollywood Bowl but I had to leave town to check on my Dad.
We have had a horrible month in the United States. Harvey, Irma, Maria, Vegas, and always the Trump tweets with the daily reminder of how unhinged our commander in chief, is, and how close to catastrophe we are.
It would behoove the Dodgers to have an amazing October run to help us get through this rough patch, while we remember that for many of us it is simply a mental rough patch. For others, this rough patch is actually a large hole that took a lifetime of work and dreams.
Cody Bellinger Splits
You just don’t see many 1st base / Center Fielders so I thought I’d show his splits.
Split G PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS as 1B 89 364 30 .299 .382 .667 1.049 as LF 38 149 7 .189 .275 .394 .669 as CF 4 14 0 .250 .357 .250 .607 as RF 5 13 2 .273 .385 .818 1.203 as DH 1 4 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 as PH 4 4 0 .667 .750 1.000 1.750
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/2/2017.
I know Wes Parker played forty-seven games in center field and Franklin Stubbs played twenty-nine games, but those are the only two 1st baseman I can remember in Dodger history who were 1st baseman by trade, but played some center field.
If Cody had hit one home run as a center fielder he would have homered from each of the outfield spots, but alas he stayed at 39.
Dodgers, Yesterday and Today 