Pirates starter on Sunday up in air

Pittsburgh Tribune-Review speculates that it could be uber-prospect Glasnow,  Juan Nicasio (being activated from restricted list),  Chad Kuhl, or simply a bullpen game with Lobstein/A.J. Schugel giving it a go.
One candidate is righty Chad Kuhl (6-2, 2.58), who is slated to pitch Saturday for Indianapolis. A more likely possibility is having Kyle Lobstein and A.J. Schugel piggyback each other.

Nicasio was in the rotation but had to leave to attend family matters, but has since returned to the team. He should be activated this weekend but will they let him start?

It would seem that Nicasio is the likely starter, since he’s been in the rotation all year and has missed only one turn, unless he’s being replaced in the rotation by Glasnow.

Pirates preview – June 24th, 2016

You can count on one thing, the LAD will probably see a bit of Sean Rodriquez who fills in everywhere. Sean has played at least one game at every position except catcher.

Earlier we talked about the Pirates June swoon. Now let’s focus on the actual team the Dodgers will be playing the next four games.

The Pirates still have a lot weapons but just about all of them are hitters. Eric Stephen broke down the pitching matchups, so let’s concentrate on the hitters.

Catcher – Starting catcher Francisco Cervelli went on the DL June 11th with a broken hamate bone in his left hand.  The Pirates are 2 – 9 since he was put on the DL. Replacing Cervelli is long-time backup catcher Chris Stewart, the AJ Ellis of the Pirates.  Backing up Stewart now is Eric Kratz who also fills in as a pitcher when asked.

1st Base – John Jaso has started fifty-five games for the Pirates. He never starts against LHP,  which means his mediocre performance against RHP is not what the Pirates were hoping for. Jaso has always been a part-time player only eclipsing 400 plate appearance once, way back in 2010,  but the Pirated decided he’s a semi full-time 1st baseman. Jaso has hit enough that the Pirates have made him the de facto leadoff hitter against RHP. If Jaso had hit like he had in any of his previous seasons this might have been an excellent plan, but as it is, Jaso is just middling along with a pedestrian Triple State Line of .278/ .352 / .408 and an OPS+ of 106. Jaso has slumped badly in June, and maybe in danger of losing at-bats  to David Freeze who is having his best offensive season since he was an all-star with the Cardinals in 2012. In June, Freeze has an almost .900 OPS, and for the season is crushing LHP to the tune of a .988 OPS.

2nd Base – Josh Harrison was a one-time utility player who exploded into prominence with a full season OPS+ of 133 far above anything he’d done previously as a utility player. That performance netted him an all-star berth, and he even finished 9th in the MVP voting. The Pirates were misled and gave him the starting 3rd base job in 2015. That didn’t work out so well, so they doubled down and gave him the starting second base job in 2016. Josh started out OK but is having trouble hitting his weight in June. How bad? How about a .516 OPS in June.

ShortStop – Jody Mercer is actually hitting in June with a .762 OPS. Mercer has always earned his keep by crushing LHP, why that allows him to be a full-time SS I’m not sure, because he’s below average against RHP, and that is what he see’s most of the time.
Career against LHP – .879 / against RHP – .635
2016 against LHP – .959 / against RHP – .639

Clearly, baseball needs more left-handed hitting shortstops. The Dodgers should get on that.

3rd Base – Jung Ho Kang missed all of April, and the start of May recovering from the surgery that ended his 2015 season, but is now entrenched as the Pirate starting 3rd baseman. The Korean national has had little problem with major league pitching, now posting a career OPS+ of 133.  Kang has a wRC+ of 138 which for context is actually one point better than Nolan Arenado four better than Kris Bryant.

Right Field – Gregory Polanco was supposed to be the next big thing back in the summer of 2014 but instead the then twenty-two struggled most of the season. His 2015 wasn’t much better but it was an improvement. Sometimes patience is rewarded, and in 2016 you could make an argument that so far in 2016, Polanco is the best RF in the National League. His wRC+ of 140 sits on top of everyone. The defense metrics suggest he’s an outstanding defensive right fielder.  Left handed defensive star, power, speed, and on-base skills. Sign me the hell up.

Left Field – Much like Polanco, Starling Marte came into the league with a lot of ballyhoos. The difference is that it only took one year before Marte started living up to the hype. He’s already twenty-seven now and has been one of the better left fielders for four years.  Marte is having his best season, but is a bit dinged up and his status for the series is up in the air. He did play against the Giants, but went hitless in the four-game series, and was relegated to  pinch-hitting the last two games.

Center Field – for the past four years you could argue that  Andrew McCutchen  was the best player in the NL.  He finished 3rd,1st, 3rd, and 5th in the last four years of MVP voting. That time may have passed. Andrew is only 29 but at this moment in time,  he’s probably not even the best outfielder on his team.  The plus .400 OBP is now .315. The plus .500 slug% is now .401.  He is fighting injuries and paying the price. Strangest part of this is that now you are hearing rumors that with Pirates free falling they might trade the franchise. I’ll believe that when I see it.

OF – Reserve Matt Joyce has done an excellent job whenever called upon. He will usually feast upon right-hand pitching so Baez beware.

Lineup stats courtesy of baseball reference:

Pos Name Age PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS
C Chris Stewart 34 91 1 0.205 0.319 0.282 0.601
1B John Jaso* 32 251 4 0.278 0.352 0.408 0.76
2B Josh Harrison 28 271 3 0.287 0.315 0.394 0.709
SS Jordy Mercer 29 280 3 0.273 0.355 0.355 0.71
3B Jung Ho Kang 29 146 10 0.267 0.329 0.557 0.886
1st/3rd David Freese 33 227 6 0.292 0.37 0.45 0.821
LF Starling Marte 27 270 6 0.328 0.37 0.494 0.864
CF Andrew McCutchen 29 308 10 0.238 0.315 0.401 0.716
RF Gregory Polanco* 24 300 10 0.298 0.378 0.519 0.897
UT Sean Rodriguez 31 147 6 0.25 0.322 0.47 0.792
OF Matthew Joyce* 31 125 7 0.287 0.424 0.574 0.998
C Erik Kratz 36 23 1 0.043 0.043 0.174 0.217
C Francisco Cervelli (15-day dl) 30 201 0 0.257 0.373 0.293 0.667

 

Pirates – Talk about a June swoon

At the beginning of the year,  it was felt that the Dodgers would need to win the National League West division for an unprecedented fourth time in a row to get into the 2016 postseason.

On June 24, that collective wisdom seems wanting. The teams that were expected to push for the play-in game were the Mets, Cardinals, and Pirates. Right now the Pirates are in such a disarray they have to decide if they are sellers or buyers in the next few weeks.

The Dodgers play the Pirates four games, and this series could be instrumental in helping the Pirates decide which way they go. The Pirates entered June with a 29 – 22 mark and in the lead for the play-in game.   The Giants dismantled the Pirates this week giving the Pirates a  5 – 17  record in June pushing their overall record to  34 – 39. The Pirates now trail the Dodgers, Cardinals, Marlins, Mets, and even the Rockies for the two wild card spots.   The Pirates could still right the ship but it will have to happen soon, and playing the two hottest teams in back to back four-game series makes that task even tougher.   The second biggest problem for the Pirates is that the team has simply rolled over when they have played the Cub going 1 – 8 in head to head competition.

It is easy to see why the Pirates are in disarray, pitching pitching pitching.  And Andrew McCutcheon hitting like Chris Heisey.  The Pirates are near the bottom of just about every pitching category and it gets worse in June where they sit at the bottom.

I was wrong about this team, I felt they would compete with the Cubs, and at the very least be in the play-in game once again. The rotation was a concern, but with Taillon and Glasnow lurking, I felt they would join Cole/Liriano/Niese to form a decent enough rotation that would allow them to compete with the big boys. But when Cole went down and Liriano imploded the domino’s started falling, and they are still falling.

On Monday the Pirates inexplicably won 1 – 0 behind Jeff Locke who had given up eighteen runs in his prior two starts. That is not a misprint, eighteen runs. That was the last highlight for the Pirates as the Giants blew them out of the water the next three games. Crushing them in game two so much that the Pirates had to turn to their backup catcher Eric Kratz to finish the game on the mound. Kratz owns the dubious record of being a position player and pitching for two different teams in the same year. Kratz was the Houston back up catcher at the start of the year and also had to pitch for them in a blow out game on April 26th.  The best part of this story is that Kratz had hit the home run to win the game on Monday for the Pirates.  Talk about a weird two-game stretch for Kratz.

In game three they blew a six-run lead to lose 7 – 6. Game four they simply lost your basic 5 – 3 game.

The Giants were hot when they visited Pittsburgh, the Dodgers might be even hotter. I expect a brutal four games for the Pirates.

Corey Seager LAD Rookie HR Leaderboard update

Last night Corey Seager blasted his sixteenth home run of the year,  and now can say hi to Raul Mondesi.  Raul Mondesi was the NL Rookie of the Year in 1994, and had a Puig like career with the Dodgers before being traded for Shawn Green.

I got all my information from Baseball-Reference but it appears they have a problem figuring out rookie status for players before a certain time period. David Young over at TrueBlueLA noticed that Baseball Reference is wrong about the rookie status of Joe Ferguson and Mike Marshall. Since David is a stickler for details I’m going to trust his judgement on this,  and remove Joe and Mike from the rookie home run leaderboard.  I’m also going to remove everyone below fifteen since they can be found here.

I’m also going to have to check up on the rookie status of Don Demeter and Billy Grabarkewitz. It is possible that Cory can move up the LAD rookie home run leaderboard without doing anything.

Corey still has his sights set on the all-time LAD rookie record of 35 home runs by Mike Piazza. Piazza hit his 16th on July 5th, so Corey is still ahead of the Piazza pace.  Piazza would hit his 17th home run on July 8th.

Player HR Year Age PA OPS Pos
Mike Piazza (RoY-1st) 35 1993 24 602 0.932 C
Joc Pederson 26 2015 23 585 0.763 CF
Frank Howard (RoY-1st) 23 1960 23 487 0.784 OF
Eric Karros (RoY-1st) 20 1992 24 589 0.73 1B
Greg Brock (RoY-7th) 20 1983 26 543 0.738 1B
Yasiel Puig (RoY-2nd) 19 2013 22 432 0.925 OF
Don Demeter 18 1959 24 401 0.731 OF
Billy Grabarkewitz 17 1970 24 640 0.852 SS/3B
Corey Seager 16 2016 22 316 0.867 SS
Raul Mondesi (RoY-1st) 16 1994 23 454 0.849 OF
James Loney (RoY-6th) 15 2007 23 375 0.919 1B
Ron Cey (RoY-6th) 15 1973 25 595 0.723 3B

 

 

Michael Taylor goes from penthouse to doghouse in five days

Five days ago Michael Taylor destroyed the Padres with four hits, two home runs, one double, and was on top of his baseball world as the Nationals headed up to Chavez Ravine.  Dusty Baker announced to the world that Taylor had earned all at-bats against left-hand pitching going forward.

Taylor however,  got the short end of the stick, by having to face Clayton Kershaw on Monday and future Clayton Kershaw on Wednesday.  Predictably Taylor didn’t get any hits against Kershaw and went hitless in all four of his at-bats. Yet, he did not strike out once against the major league strikeout leader.  Baker like all managers backtracked on his statement and started Ben Revere against left-hander Kazmir. Revere went hitless so Taylor found himself back in the lineup on Wednesday Night.

Taylor struck out three times once so far this year before Wednesday.

His At bats:

  • Urias strikes him out to start off game
  • Urias strikes him out in the 3rd to end the 2nd after consecutive doubles, including one by the pitcher, Joe Ross. It was a pivotal moment with Werth and Harper due up.
  • Urias strikes him out again in the fifth
  • Casey Fien strikes him out with two on and two out in the 7th and fits him with a sombrero
  • With two on and one out in the 9th, Pedro Baez strikes Taylor out for the fifth time

At this point.  you can’t have had a worse game. The platinum sombrero, several in key moments, but he had to take solace in the fact his team was still winning 3 – 2.  Yet even that solace was taken away when Puig rocketed a 108 MPH  ground ball up the middle and through his glove. He watched Howie Kendrick scamper home with the tying run, he  watched Puig scamper home with the winning run.

Michael Taylor did not hang his head as he left the diamond, he held his head high, took the questions, and like any ballplayer who has had a day like this, yearned for tomorrow, because the best thing about baseball, there is always a tomorrow.

 

 

Puig mad dash reminds long time fans of Kirk Gibson’s mad dash home in 88

As Puig belly-flopped across home plate with the winning run last night, long time fans couldn’t help but harken back to a pivotal game in 1988, when Kirk Gibson scored from second on a passed ball to score the winning run.

Ross Newhan of the LA Times recounts the action:

The count then was 1-and-1 on John Shelby when Gibson stole second. Hesketh’s next pitch was in the dirt and skipped past catcher Nelson Santovenia to the backstop screen.

Gibson raced to third, took a brief look and sped home, sliding in ahead of Santovenia’s wide throw to Hesketh, who was covering the plate and failed to make a tag as the ball popped out of his glove.

The best part of the LA Times link was that Ross used a word that would become synonymous with the 1988 World Champion Dodgers and Kirk Gibson in particular.

He singled to score the tying run in the ninth inning, then stole second base and scored all the way from second on the ensuing wild pitch to lift the Dodgers to an improbable 4-3 victory over the Montreal Expos before a crowd of 46,743 at Dodger Stadium.

 

LAD – By the numbers 06/21/17

After struggling with one run games the Dodgers have won their last four, improving to 11-13 overall in one run games.

After 73 games the Dodgers are 40 – 33, the exact same record they had in 2015 after 73 games.

The Dodgers have homered in 12 consecutive games. The last time the Dodgers homered in 12 consecutive games was from May 23-June 4, 2002.  If the Dodgers homer tonight it will be the first time they have homered in 13 consecutive games since 2001.

The Dodgers lead the NL with 31 home runs in June, led by Justin Turner with 7, Seager with 6, Joc with 5, and Thompson with 4.

Chase Utley still sitting on 999 runs scored for his career. He simply need to get on base before someone launches a three run home run

With a victory tonight the Dodgers will sweep the Nationals for the first time at home since April 27-29, 2012.

The Dodgers have won 13 of their last 16 home games

Howie Kendrick is batting .186 in the fifteen games he has started in LF since May 25th.  Howie will not be starting tonight in LF .

 

 

 

 

 

Before Cory Seager there was Billy Grabarkewitz

[update to reflect final season stats for Seager, found at bottom]

Cory Seager is getting all the attention these days, and the rookie SS deserves it. In 1970 Billy Grabarkewitz was making the same kind of impact for the LAD. Billy Grabarkewitz was not a rookie in 1970 but just like Corey Seager in 2016, 1970 was his first full year. Billy had only 70 plate appearances headed into 1970, Seager had 113 headed into 2016. Yet Seager is classified as a rookie and Billy was not. Time spent on Major League roster I guess.

Update August 27th[Found this exceptional mini biography of Grabarkewitz at the sabre.org/proj]

Billy had shown up in 1969 and produced like a banjo hitting infielder,  batting only .095 in 65 at bats in four different call ups. Yet his minor league pedigree suggested much more, so it was no surprise that he made the team out of spring training in 1970.

What was a big surprise was that Billy was one of the best hitters in baseball for the first few months of 1970.  He easily made the all-star team, and would even play a key role in one of the most famous all-star games in history. The 1970 All-Star game went into extra innings and is famous for Pete Rose bowling over Ray Fosse to win the game. It was Billy who singled  to move Pete Rose into scoring position for that eventual scamper home on a Jim Hickman (ex-Dodger) single.  Billy would end his all-star career batting 1.000 because that was his only all-star game appearance.

The Dodgers in 1970 had the misfortune of playing in the same division as the Big Red Machine. They started the season by being swept by the Reds in the first three games. Steve Garvey played 3rd base, and Maury Wills played SS.  1969 ROY Ted Sizemore was entrenched at 2nd base.  For Billy to find a place to play he would need to unseat a Dodger legend at SS, or beat out Steve Garvey at 3rd base. The Dodgers lost the first five games of 1970 with Garvey at 3rd base.  They turned to Grabarkewitz on April 12th, batting 8th he drove in two runs and the Dodgers had their first victory of 1970. And that was the start of an amazing season by Billy Grabarkewitz.

For context this is what Billy and Seager have done by June 21st, 1970.

Stats Grabarkewitz Seager
PA 253 308
Doubles 9 16
Triples 3 1
Home Runs 6 15
Runs 32 46
RBI 39 36
Walks 37 26
BA 0.330 0.283
OBP 0.434 0.344
Slug% 0.490 0.509

Cory Seager is having an epic first full season campaign but as you can see Billy  was also quite epic in his first full season. That OBP  wasn’t just fueled by his high BA, Billy was getting on base by hit or walk. And doing that while still posting a huge above average slug %.  Let’s take a look at NL 3rd baseman in 1970 for context:

The table below represents the 1970 3rd baseman with qualified for a batting title, sorted by OPS.  The full statistical list can be found here:

Player BA OBP SLG OPS R RBI
Tony Perez (HOF) 0.317 0.401 0.589 0.990 107 129
Billy Grabarkewitz 0.289 0.399 0.454 0.852 92 84
Ron Santo (HOF) 0.267 0.369 0.476 0.844 83 114
Don Money 0.295 0.361 0.463 0.824 66 66
Doug Rader 0.252 0.322 0.436 0.758 90 87
Clete Boyer 0.246 0.305 0.381 0.686 44 62

Up until June 21st, Billy was the full-time 3rd baseman. However on June 21st, Maury Wills would get hurt, and Billy would take over SS for the next month, starting at Shorstop from June 22nd to July 25th.

Billy blasted out of the gates in 1970 and did this month by month:

Month PA HR BA OBP Slug OPS
April 57 2 0.333 0.464 0.533 0.997
May 117 2 0.394 0.479 0.564 1.043
June 114 3 0.292 0.398 0.417 0.815
July 111 4 0.28 0.396 0.43 0.826
Aug 120 4 0.173 0.311 0.378 0.689
Sept 121 2 0.291 0.38 0.447 0.827

After that seminal first full season, Billy Grabarkewitz seemed destined for LAD greatness, but like many who came before, injuries would ruin his promising future.  Billy totaled 640 plate appearances in 1970, but could muster only 90 in 1971.  In the winter of  1973 he was traded along with half the team

and was never able to light the star that shined so bright in 1970.  By the age of 29 he was out of the major leagues having managed to amass only 1390 plate appearances after having 640 in 1970. I found this link that had this quote:

 “The injury-prone Grabarkewitz was in the minors when he said, ‘I was X-rayed so often I glow in the dark.’ “

Hardball times included the 1970 Grabarkewitz season as one of the all time fluke seasons, but I kind of disagree. 1970 was his first full season, and while he struggled in August he bounced back in Sept and did what he had done in June/July so I don’t think he was figured out.  To me a fluke season has to be preceded by some kind of baseline, and then have that baseline busted by the fluke season.  Gabby had no baseline entering 1970, and it was will established that he suffered numerous injuries after 1970. But I’m no math major, just an old Dodger fan.

On a personal note, Billy will always be one of my favorite Dodgers. The very first Dodger game I saw was on June 16th, 1970, and Billy homered to lead the Dodgers to a 1 – 0 victory over the Pirates. Just one of many 1 – 0 victories for Don Sutton.

Update with the final stats for Seager and Billy for 2016
With the 2016 season over, we can see that Seager ended up surpassing Billy on most counting stats, but the OPS+ came in 134 to 137 not too big a difference. Seager owned more power but with 95 walks Billy made it up in OBP.  Strangely Seager will get many MVP votes, Billy Grabarkewitz got zero.

Stats Grabarkewitz Seager
PA 640 687
Doubles 20 40
Triples 8 5
Home Runs 17 26
OPS+ 134 137
fWAR 6.1 7.5
Hits / Walks 153/95 193/54
BA 0.289 0.308
OBP 0.399 0.365
Slug% 0.454 0.512

Yazmani Grandal – King of the 3-run home run

Yazmani Grandal has only hit six home runs this year, but when he hits them, they count. Grandal now has three of the LAD nine three run home runs accounting for 33% of them.

Not a bad seasons work when you’re hitting less than .200 and generally considered to be having a poor offensive season. Which he is, but how about those runs batted in?

Grandal has driven in 26 runs with only 28 hits.

Adrian Gonzalez the man paid to drive in runs has driven in 32 runs with 69 hits.

Runs batted in may be an old farts counting stat, but any baseball fan could tell you. they would rather see a three run home run, than a ground ball to second.

 

Seven nights, four 3-run home runs, multiple victories, who knew?

Yasmani Grandal blasted a three run home run last night to propel the Dodgers to a 3 – 2 victory. 

On Saturday night Justin Turner launched a three run home run to help down the Brewers 10 -6

On Thursday night Trayce Thompson slugged a three run home in a losing cause 8 -6

Last Wednesday Scott Van Slyke crushed a three run home run to provide all the offense in a Dodger win 3 – 2. 

The LAD have hit four three run home runs in the past seven nights, while winning five games in a row.   The three run home run is generally considered a winning strategy, and the Dodgers to their credit are implementing the Earl Weaver strategy extremely well.

Below is the three run home chart for 2016

Player Date ▴ Opp Rslt HR RBI
Yasiel Puig 5/3/2016 TBR W 10-5 1 3
Yasmani Grandal 5/12/2016 NYM W 5-0 1 3
Corey Seager 5/31/2016 CHC W 5-0 1 3
Yasmani Grandal 6/5/2016 ATL W 12-6 1 3
Justin Turner 6/7/2016 COL W 4-3 1 3
Scott Van Slyke 6/15/2016 ARI W 3-2 1 3
Trayce Thompson 6/16/2016 MIL L 6-8 1 3
Justin Turner 6/18/2016 MIL W 10-6 1 3
Yasmani Grandal 6/21/2016 WSN W 3-2 1 3

The LAD are 8 – 1 when they unload the three-run home run. They hit zero in April, two in May, and now six in June, with four coming in the past seven games.

That’ll do