A Triple A bonanza of riches

Phil Gurnee ♦ November 18, 2023 ♦ Leave a comment

Having followed the Dodgers for 55 plus years now, the winter of 2023 is unique to me in that the Dodgers have a plethora of actual pitching prospects who are banging on the major league door. By plethora I mean TEN, we are lucky to usually have one or two. Several of these pitchers have already shed their rookie status, and several others did spend some time with the Dodgers in 2023, but they all have one thing in common. Every single one of them spent some time in AAA this year and every single one of them is a viable future major league pitcher.

Of course, the Dodgers won’t have room for all of them, either this year or future years. It is possible that only three of these nine pitchers will ever see significant time in the Dodger rotation either due to opportunity, production, injury, or having been traded outside the organization. Which is why I want to write about them today, because any day now, several of them may no longer be in the Dodger organization. Even if they aren’t future rotation pieces, you could make a case that Grove / Hurt / Frasso / Vanasco could up being valuable bullpen pieces.

Who are these guys?

We will start with the one pitcher everyone already knows. Bobby Miller. Coming into 2023, Bobby Miller was the consensus top pitching prospect for the Dodgers but he wasn’t number one in the rotational depth chart. That belonged to Ryan Pepiot, Michael Grove, and Gavin Stone. Unlucky for the Dodgers, but lucky for Bobby Miller, Pepiot got hurt, Grove and Stone struggled, and so the Dodgers turned to Bobby Miller who was himself struggling in AAA. Miller made four starts for OKC and had a 5.65 ERA in just 14 innings when the Dodgers brought him up. Miller would show why he was the Dodgers top pitching prospect and would stay in the Dodgers rotation from May 23rd until the end of the year, and would even pitch the 2nd game in the NLDS. At this point Bobby Miller is expected to be in the Dodger rotation on opening day, and based on pitchers currently in the system, he has the 2nd most experience in the major leagues. It is safe to say, that Bobby Miller will be a Dodger for a while. What isn’t safe to say is that Bobby Miller is the best of the bunch. Right now he looks that way, but Emmet Sheehan or Nick Frasso or even River Ryan might have something to say about it.

Twenty-Six year-old Ryan Pepiot has now made thirty two AAA starts and he likely will not make any more outside of some rehab starts if he gets hurt in 2024. Pepiot was having a dominant AAA in 2022 so he made his major league in 2022 but he failed to build upon that AAA success and had some question marks coming into the 2023 season. He was expected to compete in the spring for one open rotation spot and he did more than that, winning the rotation spot with an impressive spring. Sadly, however, Pepiot suffered an oblique injury at the end of spring training. This injury lingered much longer than expected and Pepiot wasn’t able to take the mound until mid July, making his first appearance of 2023 on July 15th with AAA OKC. Pepiot would make 6 starts for OKC and with his final start on August 13th Pepiot showed he was ready for his major league 2023 debut by striking out 11 with zero walks during his 20 out start. Ready he was, Ryan Pepiot flourished in the Dodger rotation, giving them six games as either the starter or the bulk inning pitcher. Pepiot also made two appearances as a multi-inning mid game relief pitcher. In only one of these eight games did Pepiot struggle, he was mostly dominant, and it was a far cry from what he showed in his 2022 debut season. In 2022, Pepiot dominated AAA, but in his seven starts for the Dodgers his control completely left him as his walk rate was 6.7 per nine innings. In 2023, that walk rate in 42 innings was a miniscule 1.1. Due to his impressive 2023 season, albeit in a small sample size, Ryan Pepiot is currently ranked 3rd in the Dodgers rotation behind Walker Buehler, and Bobby Miller.

Now it gets murkier. Right now if you look at the Dodger rotation, you see Walker Buehler, Bobby Miller, and Ryan Pepiot. That is all you have that you can legitimately pencil in. Dustin May is out for the year. Tony Gonsolin is out for the year. Clayton Kershaw is out until at least mid-summer, and he may not even be a Dodger in 2023. It is expected that the Dodgers will acquire at least two more starters via free agency or a trade between now and opening day. Yet, the Dodgers have plenty of talent that could conceivably be used in the 2024 rotation. It is going to be a fine line that the Dodger front office is going to have to walk to fill the rotation while at the same time, not blocking their young pitching prospects. I’m expecting at least one or even two of the names below to get traded for that veteran pitching. A younger team could take a chance and let the multiple young arms listed below battle it out for the final two open rotation spots, but not a team with World Series aspirations. They will want some certainty, even though, you rarely get any kind of certainty with pitching.

One little caveat before I continue. In the past, you would see scouting reports that so and so doesn’t have the stamina or the stuff to go through a lineup three times. Is that still relevant? The guy who just won the NL CYA only averaged 17 outs a start. The minimum bar for outs per start is so low now that you are only hoping for fifteen outs, even though you’d take 12 – 14, and hell, eighteen outs would be fantastic.

In 2022, Emmet Sheehan never got past High A ball but the Dodgers did ask him to pitch in the Arizona Fall League where he excelled. Sheehan had shown good stuff as a 22-year-old in 2022, but no one was prepared for the step up he would take in 2023. He dominated AA so much that the Dodgers skipped him from AA right to the major leagues. In his major league debut, Sheehan threw six no – hit innings but he struggled with his control throughout his seven major leagues starts. As the Dodgers added some rotation help at the trading deadline they moved Sheehan down to AAA where he made three starts, and like Bobby Miller, didn’t exactly wow anyone. Yet, the Dodgers brought him back to big club in Sept, where he made four more starts. In his last three appearances in 2023, Emmet pitched 17 2/3 innings, gave up only three runs, while walking only 4, and striking out an amazing twenty three hitters. Before Emmet exhausted his rookie status, he was being ranked as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, and those last three games, showed why. It would not be unreasonable to see Emmet be successful in 2024 if the Dodgers simply penciled him into the rotation. He might have the highest ceiling of any one in the system including Bobby Miller and Ryan Pepiot. I’m positive that Dodgers will not trade Emmet Sheehan, his ceiling is simply to high.

Gavin Stone had the season in 2022 that Emmet Sheehan had in 2023. He came out of nowhere in 2022 jumping three levels to rival Bobby Miller as the top pitching prospect in the system. Yet, in 2023, Gavin Stone struggled not only at the major league level but at AAA, the level he dominated in 2023. He simply wasn’t ready. He just turned 25, and he looks ticketed for another season in AAA.

MLB Pipeline has ranked Stone as the Dodgers 5th best prospect and 2nd best pitching prospect.

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 70 | Control: 50 | Overall: 55 

With his twenty five AAA starts over the last two years he has the most experience at AAA of any of the pitchers being mentioned today outside of Ryan Pepiot. Stone looks like a starter to me, so unlike Pepiot or Grove or Hurt or Frasso I can’t really see him helping the Dodgers in the bullpen.

Michael Grove is being listed here because he has made seventy seven starts in his professional career including twelve with the Dodgers and two in AAA in 2023, but I only view him as multi-inning relief pitcher or opener going forward. Grove might have a future on another team as a rotation piece, but for the 2024 Dodgers I think his value lies in the bullpen. As a starter, Grove simply struggled, but as a relief pitcher he ended the season on a high note with five scoreless appearances, twenty two outs, one hit, one walk, and eleven strikeouts. I have high hopes for Grove in the Dodger bullpen in 2024.

Nick Frasso is the Dodgers 4th best prospect according to MLB Pipeline.

Scouting grades: Fastball: 75 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 55

He was just added to the Dodgers 40-man roster, and he only has four AAA starts under his belt. Just like Sheehan, Kyle Hurt, Landon Knack, River Ryan, and the now traded Nick Nastrini, Frasso was part of the unheard of Tulsa rotation that started the year in 2023. All of them had some level of domination in 2023, and thus all of them ended up in AAA with Sheehan and Hurt even seeing time with the Dodgers. Frasso just turned twenty-five this past October, and has made only forty-three professional starts. He is clearly looked upon as a starter as every professional game he has been in, has been as a starter. Yet, many see his floor as a high leverage back of the game bullpen piece. Given the Dodger options in the rotation, maybe that is where he makes sense for the Dodgers. The Dodgers acquired him in 2022 for Mitch White, at the moment it looks like a great deal, but only time will tell. Mitch White seemed to find something at the end of this year, enough so that Toronto added him back to their own 40-man roster after dropping him off of it during the season.

Kyle Hurt might have had the most impressive minor league season among all the impressive pitchers in 2023 in the Dodger organization. The Trojan struck out one hundred fifty two hitters in just ninety two innings which I believe was the best in professional baseball for over 75 innings pitched. Hurt made fifteen starts for AA Tulsa but once he was promoted to AAA OKC, he only made one start in seven appearances. His lone dynamite appearance for the Dodgers was in relief where he looked like vintage Jonathan Broxton, striking out three of his six outs. I don’t know if Hurt can be a rotation piece, the Dodgers don’t seem to know either, but man, his floor looks like a heck of a bullpen piece. Maybe as soon as the summer of 2024.

At twenty -six Landon Knack is the oldest of the pitchers mentioned today and was just added to the 40-man roster last week. Knack was named the Dodgers minor league pitcher of the year which I thought was odd given the seasons that Sheehan and Hurt had. Maybe it was a trading ploy? Knack had a good season and he is a solid depth piece headed into 2024, but I’d think that Sheehan / Stone / Frasso / Hurt are above him in the rotational pecking order. MLB Pipeline likes him more than Kyle Hurt, but I think they are the only publication that thinks so. He seems like a likely candidate to be traded

Rickey Vanasco is a wild card. The Dodgers got Vanasco last summer when he moved off the Rangers 40 man roster. Even though Vanasco had a solid season the Dodgers moved him off the 40-man roster. This move surprised most of us who follow the prospects because Vanasco had a solid end to his 2023 minor league season. Then, the Dodgers surprised us again by signing Vanasco to a major league contract and bringing him back onto the 40-man roster. Vanasco was a starter for the Rangers but he excelled this summer after moving to the bullpen. Just wanted to get his name in here as he did pitch in AAA for OKC this summer, albeit as a relief pitcher.

All of the above pitchers are on the Dodgers 40 man roster, but the next name is not, even though he has also already pitched in AAA. Luckily the Dodgers didn’t have to protect River Ryan, and because of that, it is unlikely the Dodgers will need him in 2024. That said, there is one guy who I respect who thinks that River Ryan might be the most talented pitcher in the Dodger system. That person is Keith Law of the Athletic who listed River Ryan as the 41st top prospect in baseball during his mid-summer update.

The Dodgers made him a full-time pitcher and he’s taken off, working at 95-99 with a four-pitch mix highlighted by a hammer curveball. I saw a plus changeup from him in spring training but he’s barely used it this year, and he’s shown some platoon split as a result, allowing a .385 OBP to lefties. He’s used each of the curve and the slider more than the changeup to left-handed batters, which doesn’t make much sense given how those pitches typically work and the results he’s having. He’s very athletic with an excellent delivery, while his command and control remain below average, especially to left-handed batters. There’s No. 2 starter upside here with improved command and a different pitching plan.

River was traded to the Dodgers from the Padres in 2022 as an infielder. The Dodgers immediately converted him to a pitcher so he has only pitched two professional seasons. It is highly unusual for an 11th round draft pick, to make it to AAA with only 39 professional games under their belt, but that is what River Ryan has done so far. He only made two starts in AAA but those two starts were enough to get him into this article.

So, as you can see if you got this far, the Dodgers have many young pitchers who are already either pitching for the Dodgers like Miller / Pepiot / Sheehan / Stone / Grove or or just about ready to in Frasso / Hurt / Knack / Vanasco. Which one’s will be with by this time next year?