If you don’t think a rotation that can’t get 15 outs a game isn’t problematic, think again
The Dodgers have made 112 starts in 2016 and in 51 of those starts the rotation has gotten a maximum of 15 outs. In those 51 starts, the team is 22 – 29. If you drop it by one out, meaning a pitcher has not been able to go at least five innings the numbers get quite ugly.
Let’s break it down:
- 1 out – 1 win – the Bud Norris back game
- 8 outs – 1 win, 1 loss
- 9 outs – 1 win, 1 loss
- 10 outs – 1 win
- 11 outs – 2 wins
- 12 outs – 2 wins, 9 losses
- 13 outs – 2 losses
- 14 outs – 4 losses
- 15 outs – 14 wins, 12 losses
Less than 15 outs the Dodgers are 8 – 17, and 25 games of this nature are simply too many games of this nature. Some may say that the role of the starting pitcher is evolving as the bullpen keeps becoming more and more important, and this may be true, but you still need to get at least 15 outs to provide your team with the best chance of winning.
Evidently the best scenario is for the pitcher get either 10 or 11 outs. The new winning efficiency. In games, the Dodger starters went at least four innings but not five innings the team is 2 – 15. Ouch
Good odds that if/when Rich Hill takes the mound for the first time he won’t get five outs. We aren’t sure right now that Brandon McCarthy will ever get five outs again this year. When Brett Anderson gets inserted into the rotation fifteen outs will probably be his max for a few starts.
Obviously, a team that is 63 – 49 is doing great work when the starters can get at least 16 outs. The math says they are 41 – 20 in such cases. That is how you lead the wild card race and are breathing down the backs of the Giants. To keep this pace up, it would behoove the rotation to start having more games of at least 15 outs but I’m not sure this rotation as it is stands, will be up to the task.
Get well soon Mr. Kershaw