Dodgers deliver lump of coal to STH for Christmas
Los Angeles Dodger season ticket holders have been receiving their invoice for the 2018 season and they aren’t happy with what they are seeing. I’ve heard a few complaints and Bill Shaikin decided to find out just exactly how much of an increase is really happening.
The Dodgers say they haven’t finalized all prices on 2018 season tickets, but many fans say they have gotten invoices. Please reply or DM if you’d care to share your seat location, 2017 price and 2018 price. Thank you.
— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) December 21, 2017
Follow the tweet above for the replies to Bill as he tries to document the price increases for Dodger Season Ticket Holders.
20% seems to be the norm for the price increase from 2017 ticket prices compared to 2018 ticket prices. This comes after substantial price increases from the previous year leaving many season ticket holders wondering if they have reached the end of their relationship with the Dodgers as season ticket holders.
I gave mine up a few years ago and don’t miss the hassle of figuring out what to do with 80 games. I then went with a group but gave that up this past winter. With all of the secondary ticket markets in play right now like Stubhub and SeatGeek, it is easy to get tickets for only the games you want to see in the areas that you want to watch them instead of being tied to the same seat for the whole season. The Dodgers, of course, come out ahead either way. They charge the season ticket holder a high price and collect that money in advance, When the season ticket holder sells some tickets on the secondary market on StubHub, the Dodgers also collect a percentage of that fee. The season ticket holder holds the short end of the stick because the price on the secondary market rarely matches the price the season ticket holder paid for their ticket.
The Dodgers can point to the excellent product they put on the field for their fans having won five straight National League West Division pennants. The organization has been remarkedly consistent as a winner with only two losing seasons in the 21st century.
Dodger baseball is a business, the ownership paid a staggering two billion for the team in 2012 and have had the highest payroll in baseball by far since they took over the team. They have been so committed to fielding an elite team they have paid a record $150M in luxury taxes since 2013.
On the field, the ownership has done everything but deliver a World Championship and they almost even delivered that coming within one Yu of doing so.
Off the field maybe not so much. They cut a great financial deal with Time Warner ($8.5 Billion over 25 years) but ended up alienating much of their base because half of their fans could no longer watch the team on TV. Bill Shaikin analyzed this deal this past summer.
Has the blackout killed interest among a significant number of fans, or do people still want to watch the Dodgers?
They still want to watch. The average SportsNet LA broadcast this season has attracted 79,000 households. The 10-game KTLA package averaged 378,000 households, including the SportsNet LA viewers — an audience almost five times as large as the one for games aired only on the Dodgers’ channel.
How much of their cable television audience have the Dodgers lost since launching SportsNet LA?
You have a lot of Dodger fans disgusted with the fact they can’t follow their team on TV. Now you have the core of their fanbase a bit upset with the substantial increases in their season ticket prices over the past two years. I expect most of them will continue to be season ticket holders for 2018 as no one wants to give up tickets after finally getting to the World Series. But they will be annoyed, and those who have to make other financial sacrifices to be Dodger season ticket holders might think more than twice next year at this time if the same scenario unfolds as it has the past two years.
Naughty and nice
The Dodger front office had a lot more nice than naughty in calendar 2017 but let’s give a brief rundown of a subjective review of Dodger front office actions.
Naughty – asking outfielder Brett Eibner to pitch and then releasing him outright after he blew out his arm.
Nice – giving a Sept callup to O`Koyea Dickson who subsequently got his first and possibly only major league hit. Dickson was a feel-good story but his game in 2017 didn’t exactly scream call-up. The Dodgers could have left him off the Sept roster and no one would have blinked an eye.
Naughty – Signing Sergio Romo on Feb 15th. The huge Dodger fan was unable to pitch his way onto a significant part of the Dodger bullpen and was traded to the Rays in July.
Nice – signing Brandon Morrow on Jan 26th. Morrow went on to become one of the greatest NRI signings for the Dodgers in the 21st century.
Naughty – Signed Franklin Gutierrez as a free agent on Feb 20th. Gutierrez was supposed to bring his big right-handed bat against left-handed pitching but he was predictably hurt just about all year and gave the Dodgers nothing of substance.
Nice – Signed Chase Utley on Feb 18th, just a few weeks before the start of spring training. Chase started out slow but gave the Dodgers a huge boost in the arm in May/June and overall had a fine year.
Naughty – I’m reaching here but the Dodgers signed Justin Masteron as a free agent and he put up a solid year for AAA but never got called up by the Dodgers. I’m sure the 40 man roster played a part but it must have been frustrating for the 32-year-old to see many pitchers in the major leagues that he was better than but couldn’t get out of the Dodger system.
Nice – Getting Tony Cingrani, Tony Watson, and Yu Darvish on the last day of the trading deadline. All of them played a significant part in helping the Dodgers get to game seven of the World Series.
While he’s just starting to prove himself on the diamond, Alvarez has one of the highest offensive ceilings in Houston’s system. He has a quiet left-handed stroke with advanced feel for the barrel and mastery of the strike zone, which helped him bat .351 in Cuba’s top league as a 17-year-old in ’14 and .341 in his short pro debut. He flashes plus raw power in batting practice and it began to show up in games in 2017 as he raced to high Class A much earlier than expected.
Naughty – trading for Curtis Granderson on Aug 19th. Granderson was as bad as a player could be giving Dodger fans visions of the 2016 August that Josh Reddick had after he was acquired. The Dodger front office has many strengths but maybe trading for left hand hitting outfielders in July/Aug is not one of them.
Naughty – letting a pitcher start the most important game of the year who had been clobbered by the same team just a few days ago and whose front office had heard whispers about his pitch tipping and were unable to spot the flaw before his start.
Not following the ascribed path of front office transactions.
Nice – scoring 12 runs in game five of the World Series
Naughty – giving up 13 runs in game five of the World Series.
Nice – being one game away from a World Championship
What’s next? Cutch or Cain?
With the trade of the three onerous contracts this weekend the Dodgers have opened up some financial flexibility for 2018 even as they hope to stay under the luxury tax and reset the fines that MLB has been hitting the team with ever since they decided to be the $250M pound gorilla of major league baseball. Eric Stephen as always does a great job in showing you how the Dodger payroll in 2018 currently stands and what the ramifications are if they can stay under the luxury tax for 2018.
The Dodgers are at just over $171 million for luxury tax purposes for 19 players on the active roster. Filling out the rest of the 25-man roster with players near the minimum salary ($545,000 in 2018) puts us at roughly $175 million.
That’s well below the $197 million threshold for 2018, which means they have some room to make more moves and still avoid the tax. One of those may be the reported one-year deal for Tom Koehler, which hasn’t been finalized yet.
A couple of rumors out there suggest the Dodgers might use some of the new found financial flexibility to make a run at either perennial top-five MVP Andrew McCutchen or free agent center fielder Lorenzo Cain.
I’ll deal with Lorenzo Cain first because I don’t think he fits with what this front office would do. Cain is an excellent center fielder who would be a great addition to just about any team but probably not the Dodgers. He’s a free agent and coming off a solid season at thirty years old, Cain is probably looking at a four-year deal. His game is his speed which has allowed him to excel as a defensive center-fielder and enough pop and OBP skills that he is also an asset on offense. He is well known to most baseball fans because of the Royal World Series runs in 2014 and 2015 including their World Championship in 2015. I advocated this summer to acquire Cain to help the Dodgers in the outfield, a move that would have put up a postseason outfield of Puig/Cain/Taylor but the Dodgers didn’t do that as they probably expected Adrian Gonzalez to be more than a sideline distraction back in July. Now, however, Cain is a free-agent and I just can’t see this front office giving a four-year contract to a center-fielder whose main game is speed for the age of 31 – 35. It would also require more financial maneuvering and hurt their ability next year when better free agents become available. So I’m giving Lorenzo Cain a hard pass and won’t believe any rumors about him becoming a Dodger.
Andrew McCutchen is a different story entirely. He is in the last year of his contract and the cost is $14.5M. Andrew had a subpar 2016 but I wrote that he was due for a bounceback in 2017 and it happened. He wasn’t the top five MVP player he once was from 2012 – 2015 but he was the fourth best hitting NL CF in 2017 and the sixth best NL CF in fWAR. However they sort out the outfield, the trio of Puig/Taylor/McCutchen would be an outstanding outfield.
Can they Dodgers fit McCutchen on the roster and still stay under the luxury tax for 2018? I think so.
One way would be to trade Grandal and I can see a fit between the Dodgers and the Pirates. The Pirates could use an everyday catcher. Francisco Cervelli is a fine catcher but has a long history of health issues and was only able to play 81 games last year. Overall the Pirates had the 28th fWAR for catchers in 2017.
A simple trade of Grandal/Thompson for Cutch would net the Dodgers the right hand hitting LF they might covet while allowing the Pirates to shed about $7M and get an everyday catcher who would give them some much need pop at the position. The Pirate catchers hit only six home runs in 2017 along with a poor .323 slug%. Grandal hit 22 home runs with a slug% of .459. Grandal hit more home runs for the Dodgers than all but two players for the Pirates. One being McCutchen, so if they move McCutchen you would expect them to be looking for some power to be coming back to them. Getting McCutchen for 2018 still gives the Dodgers the flexibility going forward as he will walk after the 2018 season.
Should the Dodgers trade for McCutchen?
Maybe?
The left field options at the moment appear to be Joc Pederson, Andrew Toles, and Alex Verdugo. Maybe a combination of any of those three along with Enrique Hernandez or Trayce Thompson could put up the same numbers that one would expect from McCutchen. Probably not, but maybe close enough that you don’t need to make this deal right now. I’d probably say no to acquiring McCutchen and see how those five outfielders along with Chris Taylor handle 2018. If the need arises during the summer, the team has plenty of options to still acquire that left or center fielder.
Of course, they could simply go with Matt Kemp in LF but does anyone really think this front office is going to go with that option? Matt’s contract counts against the Luxury tax at $20M per year for 2018 and 2019. At first glance you might think that Matt Kemp could slot in as that right handed left fielder against left hand pitching but if you dig deep enough you will find that Enrique Hernandez hits left hand pitching at a much better clip and gives you better defense.
I dislike writing this next sentence as I’ve always been a big Matt Kemp fan but I can’t see a role for Matt Kemp for the Dodgers and I will be curious if the Dodgers find a taker for his contract as they eat a good part of it (again) or if they simply release him as the Braves did Adrian Gonzalez.
Dodgers pull off the expected in a very unexpected way
Most Dodger fans knew the Dodgers were going to try to get rid of the contracts of Adrian Gonzalez and at least one of Scott Kazmir or Brandon McCarthy but no one expected them to trade all three in one big fell swoop.
It helps of course that the new GM for the Braves was working for the Dodgers just a few weeks ago, so this dual back scratching trade helps the Dodgers avoid the Luxury Tax in 2018 and allows the Braves lots of financial flexibility in 2019 after Gonzalez/Kazmir/McCarthy come off their books. Adrian Gonzalez was immediately waived by the Braves and can now sign with any team. Something the Angels should consider doing with Albert Pujols.
Eric Stephen breaks down the financial implications for the Dodgers and later in the day shows the financial flexibility the Dodgers gained.
Shed:
Gonzalez ($22 million)
Kazmir (~$15 million)
McCarthy ($12 million)Take on:
Kemp ($16.5 million; $20 million AAV minus the $3.5 million they were already paying)
Cash to Braves ($4.5 million)That lops roughly $28 million off the Dodgers’ luxury tax number for 2018, which in November we estimated to be about $204 million. That puts the Dodgers under the $197 million tax threshold with some room to maneuver without going over.
I especially found this tidbit useful.
Another note: Erisbel Arruebarrena and Yaisel Sierra, a pair of Cuban defectors who signed major league deals with $5 million average annual values, both remain in the organization but aren’t on the 40-man roster and don’t count toward the Dodgers’ taxable payroll.
I’d love to write about Matt Kemp playing LF for the Dodgers in 2018 but that does not appear to be in the cards. Most everyone expects the Dodgers to flip Kemp and save even more money, the only question will be how much money will the Dodgers have to throw in to make the deal happen. We might find out very shortly.
Charlie Culberson barely played for the Dodgers but he did more in his brief time with the Dodgers than many historical Dodgers have done in many more games. Charlie, of course, hit the walk-off home run in Vin Scully’s last game at Dodger Stadium. He also came out of nowhere to sub for Corey Seager in the 2017 NLCS and was outstanding in that role.
Adrian Gonzalez was the last player left from the mega dollar deal that Ned Colletti pulled off in mid-2012 as the Dodgers tried to spend their way to a championship. It took five years but finally the Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez contracts are off the books. Adrian will end up as one of the best LAD 1st basemen in history. Only four LAD first baseman have accumulated as much as 10 bWAR.
Player WAR/pos From To Age PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS Steve Garvey 36.4 1969 1982 20-33 7027 211 .301 .337 .459 .796 Wes Parker 22.9 1964 1972 24-32 4835 64 .267 .351 .375 .726 Adrian Gonzalez 13.3 2012 2017 30-35 2986 101 .280 .339 .454 .793 Eric Karros 11.7 1991 2002 23-34 6624 270 .268 .325 .457 .782
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/16/2017.
Scott Kazmir was a horrible contract who missed all of 2017 after making 26 starts in 2016.
Brandon McCarthy was funny on twitter but didn’t pitch often enough or well enough, making just thirty-three starts over his three year Dodger career. Losing McCarthy to Tommy John surgery just four games into his Dodger contract had ramifications to the roster in both 2015 and 2016.
The Dodgers have removed two of the worst deals this excellent front office has made. The worst deal was the Héctor Olivera deal and funny enough they have all been traded to the Braves.
Angels going for it
Using baseball reference the players with the most at-bats per position for the Angels in 2017 looked like this:
Pos Name Age PA BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ C Martin Maldonado 30 471 .221 .276 .368 .645 74 1B C.J. Cron 27 373 .248 .305 .437 .741 99 2B Danny Espinosa# 30 254 .162 .237 .276 .513 40 SS Andrelton Simmons 27 647 .278 .331 .421 .752 103 3B Yunel Escobar 34 381 .274 .333 .397 .730 98 LF Ben Revere* 29 308 .275 .308 .344 .652 78 CF Mike Trout 25 507 .306 .442 .629 1.071 187 RF Kole Calhoun* 29 654 .244 .333 .392 .725 97 DH Albert Pujols 37 636 .241 .286 .386 .672 81
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/15/2017.
In 2018 it will look like this:
Rk Pos Name Age PA BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ dfWAR
1 C Martin Maldonado 30 471 .221 .276 .368 .645 74 +12.5
2 1B C.J. Cron 27 373 .248 .305 .437 .741 99 -5.5
17 2B Ian Kinsler 35 613 .236 .313 .412 .725 90 +7.8
4 SS Andrelton Simmons 27 647 .278 .331 .421 .752 103 +22
3B Zack Cozart 31 507 .297 .385 .548 .933 141 +8.6
8 RF Kole Calhoun* 29 654 .244 .333 .392 .725 97 +1.6
7 CF Mike Trout 25 507 .306 .442 .629 1.071 187 -3.5
16 LF Justin Upton 29 115 .245 .357 .531 .887 137 -2.0
9 DH Albert Pujols 37 636 .241 .286 .386 .672 81
10 CI Luis Valbuena* 31 401 .199 .294 .432 .727 95 -0.5
15 MI Kaleb Cowart# 25 117 .225 .313 .382 .695 89 +1.5
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/15/2017.
As Dave Cameron of fangraphs noted the left side of the Angel defense is going to be insane.
In 2018 the Angels barring injury will get full seasons from Justin Upton, Ian Kinsler, and Zack Cozart compared to the players they replaced of Ben Revere, Danny Espinosa, and Yunel Escobar.
Luis Valbuena is now an excellent utility man who if Albert goes down or is finally benched can step in and play 1st, 3rd, or DH.
They also added the most sought-after Japanese free agent in history to anchor their staff and possibly hit a little.
Their 2017 ace was supposed to be Garrett Richards but he made only six starts.
Tyler Skaggs made only sixteen starts
Matt Shoemaker made only fourteen starts
Andrew Heaney made only five starts
Mike Trout only had 500 plate appearances in 2017, the first time he was below 650 PA since he was 21.
The Angels were snakebit in 2017 but if they can find some health on the mound, they have built a team that might put a little scare into the World Champion Houston Astros. The outfield is as good as it gets, the left side of the infield should be the best in baseball, CJ Cron just might have the break out season in him yet, and Ian Kinsler might have one more above average season left.
Fangraphs has them pegged at 85 wins. I’m going to take the over and hope to take in a few Otani starts this year.
Are the Dodgers in decline?
Craig Minami in the TrueBlueLA comments asked this question.
Is this a team on the rise, a team at the pinnacle or a team that be in some small decline?
I started to answer but realized why I stopped posting lengthy comments at truebluela. By tomorrow, they will be gone, so I thought I’d answer that question here since I’ve got nothing else to write about right now.
You need some context to answer this question. They won 104 games so when you ask are they are a team on the rise, does that mean is this a team that will win more than 104 games in 2018? Odds are certainly against it
Is this a team in decline based on 104 wins in 2017? Sure
But I’m sure Craig didn’t tag the question based on wins. So I’ll answer as though he’s simply asking if the Dodgers are a team that will continue to get better or have they peaked and will now start a gradual decline.
I’m going to answer that based on the assumption the front office does nothing significant this winter except fill the hole left by Brandon Morrow and do their best to get under the luxury tax threshold.
The Dodgers once again won the NL West quite easily and while both the Diamondbacks and Rockies made the postseason, as of right now the gaps between the teams are still significant.
In 2017 the Dodgers didn’t have the best of luck.
Or maybe they did.
They suffered significant injuries to key players expected to be a big part of the team in 2017. Those injuries, however, opened the door for two of the biggest reasons why the Dodgers were a powerhouse in 2017.
They lost their starting 1st baseman for most of the season. You could also argue that the best thing that happened to the Dodgers in 2017 was Adrian Gonzalez getting hurt.
They lost their starting LF Andrew Toles for the season. Much like the Adrian Gonzalez situation, you could argue that Toles getting hurt was the best thing that could have happened to the Dodgers.
They lost Andre Ethier for the season. Much like the Adrian Gonzalez/ Andrew Toles situation, you could argue that Andre getting hurt was the best thing that could have happened to the Dodgers.
It took all three of those players getting hurt for Cody Bellinger and Chris Taylor to become full-time Dodgers.
Their starting second baseman hurt his toe early in the year and he never seemed to be the bat they expected until October came around. Logan Forsythe may not be a star but over a full year, he should be able to crush his 2017 numbers. Unless he simply is going to suck in the NL. As of right now, Logan has had four subpar seasons in the National League, one subpar season in the American League, and two great seasons in the American League. Logan didn’t become any good until he was given more than 300 plate appearances in a season. Until last year. I’ll chalk that upto his injury and expect him to contribute much more in 2018.
Their starting catcher lost his on-base skills while continuing to wave at the multitude of passed balls.
They lost the best pitcher in baseball for two months. Again.
They got only five starts from Julio Urias who was expected to be one of the best young starting pitchers in the game in 2017.
They got only sixteen starts from Brandon McCarthy.
They got zero starts from Scott Kazmir
They lost their best left-handed relief pitcher from 2016 to injury in Grant Dayton.
All in all, a lot of things did not go right for the Dodgers and they still managed to win 104 games and win the NL West quite easily.
To answer Craig’s question. I feel this team is still ascending headed into 2018 and will continue to compete in the postseason with the other super teams in the National League.
The starting lineup is now quite young now that Adrian Gonzalez is in limbo, and Andre has taken his injury skills elsewhere.
Young and cheap.
Bellinger (22), Seager (24), Taylor (27), Puig (27), Joc (26) or Toles(26) or Hernandez (26), Barnes (28). Leaving only Justin Turner (33) and Forsythe (31) as players over 30. Turner continues to get better even as he ages into 33.
As young as the team is, they have plenty of experience.
Even if Grandal reclaims his starting catcher gig, he would only be 29.
When you have two of the best players in the game 24 years or younger, you are ascending.
When you still have the best pitcher in baseball, you are ascending
When you have the best closer in baseball, you are ascending
When you have the best pitching prospect in baseball, you are ascending
When you have the best red-bearded player in baseball, you are ascending
When you have the most exciting Cuban right fielder in baseball, you are ascending.
When you have graduated three straight starting position players including two ROY and still have a top five farm system, you are ascending.
When you trade a player no longer in baseball for a starting CF who is under team control until 2022 you are ascending
When you trade a mega dollar Cuban bust who is already out of baseball for an all-star starting pitcher who is under team control until 2020 you are ascending.
If problems emerge, they still have the farm to fix any leaks.
Things happen in baseball, but because of the moves last winter, the brilliant trades for Taylor, Wood, the drafts, the money coming off the books this year and next, I would find it hard to say this team is in any decline phase, now or in the near future. Is a World Championship in their future?
Probably.
Oh wait, you probably wanted a bunch of actual analysis as to why the team is going to continue to be the best team in baseball. Hell, go read Fangraphs if you want that, I specialize in whimsy.
.
With little to fix the Dodgers do little
Headed into day three of the winter meetings the Dodgers have done nothing to enhance the team that got within one game of being the 2017 World Champions but we did learn a few things.
We learned once again that Houston feasted on Yu Darvish because he was tipping his pitches but Dave Roberts felt it was more about execution. We could moan a bit about using a pitcher that management kind of knew was tipping his pitches but that is now history so what would be the point?
Today, the Dodgers lost free agent Brandon Morrow to the Cubs. Morrow was one of the many feel-good stories from the 2017 Dodgers and while I don’t hope his arm problems come back, I do hope that he doesn’t hurt the Dodgers in the 2018 postseason while pitching for the Cubs. Then again maybe he can talk Joe Maddon into using him in the postseason after he had pitched in consecutive games and had nothing left, thus allowing the Dodgers to pound him as Houston pounded him in game five.
The Dodgers said they don’t have any holes, and they are right. They don’t. I speculated on how much fun it would be to have Stanton as a Dodger but they sure didn’t need him.
They will need to replace Brandon Morrow and that will happen.
What else can they do?
Every spot on the team is taken except left field. Left Field will be an open competition between Toles/Pederson/Verdugo unless Adrian Gonzalez takes some David Ortiz medicinals and proves he can play 1st base on a regular basis in which case the three mentioned will take a back seat to Mr. Bellinger.
Toles was the starting left fielder in 2017 before he got hurt.
Pederson was the starting center fielder in 2017 until he lost the job late in the season to Chris Taylor.
Alex Verdugo is the best positional prospect in the Dodger farm system. Not really, we all know that is Keibert Ruiz but we will pander to those who still think otherwise.
Left field could use an upgrade, but I expect the Dodgers to run with what they have.
Starting pitching seems to run deep.
Kershaw, Rich Hill, Wood, Kenta Maeda, Ryu, McCarthy, Buehler, Stewart, Kazmir.
Yeah, yeah, yeah – I can see a hole. About the size of Yu Darvish. Maybe Walker Texas Ranger Buehler can fill it. They say he’s one of the top three pitching prospects in all of baseball.
Fact is, the team is 95% set for 2017. Might as well take a nap and wake up on March 1st.
Invigorated with Wonder
There is no way to sugar coat how the last twelve months have made me feel about being part of these United States. I understand two party realities but I don’t understand the hatred I’ve seen being delivered by a percentage of our population.
We can disagree on abortion, economic issues, tax cuts, spending cuts, health care but when it comes to outright hate for people because of color or religion I just don’t get it.
I never have.
As I watched the Nazi’s march on TV this past summer in Charlottesville, nausea was the overwhelming feeling that struck and stayed with me. I know only a small percentage of Americans felt this way but the fact that in 2017 any percent felt this way just left me with the idea that the human race will never be able to overcome its own insecurities and that the future would continue to repeat historical horrors.
We all have different perspectives, but from my own perspective, many of my early heroes were people of color and that has continued as I age into pointlessness. I can’t imagine a life for me that didn’t include those of non-Christian faith and people of color.
One of my greatest heroes has always been Stevie Wonder. I was lucky enough to see Stevie Wonder at the Coliseum back when Roman Gabriel was still the Los Angeles Ram QB. That was before Talking Book and Innervisions. It was a fun show and has its own story, but this story is not about that. I was lucky enough to get tickets to his show this past Sunday. It is the 21st year that Stevie Wonder has done his “House Full of Toys” show. Stevie is all about love, having written some of the greatest love songs of any generation. But I’m not about love, my cup of tea is the gritty Living for the City. It rang true in 1973 and it still rings true today. I know how easy my life was because of my color. I worked hard, but I got in the door because of the color of my eyes. Many never get in that door.
I don’t have a bucket list but if I did have one, hearing Stevie Wonder do Living for the City would have been on the list, and I would have crossed that off this past Sunday at Staples. I can’t express the joy I felt when he broke into that song, and let me tell you, he owned that song. No going through the motions. I would have felt worse if he had half-hearted the song, but he put his full emotional payload into it and gave me a moment in my life I’ll never forget. If you can’t leave a Stevie Wonder concert without feeling uplifted you are simply to far gone.
And man did I need to be uplifted.
Tonight was another shot in the arm. Sports bloggers aren’t supposed to talk about politics but politics today are bigger than sports. I never felt that Roy Moore could be defeated but everyone worked hard for a goal that seemed foolhardy to even consider. Those people who never gave up, those are heroes. From several thousand miles away I just have thanks for Doug Jones running a classy campaign, for not giving up on the Alabama conscience, for the endless hours’ volunteers put in to help Don Quixote slay the demon, the #meetoo movement for putting a light on a subject that had been hidden in the basement for most of human recorded history. It is going to take a lot of baby steps to defeat the monster at our doorstep, but this was a big baby step.
I’m going to bed tonight with a slice of hope for our own national conscience.
Can the Dodgers have their Stanton and eat it too?
Supposedly the Dodgers would like to get under the luxury tax threshold this winter but Derek Jeter is throwing a monkey wrench into this by deciding to trade the greatest active player who played high school ball within 100 miles of Dodgers Stadium.
Grant Brisbee thinks it is a done deal that the Dodgers will end up with Giancarlo.
I was wondering if the Dodgers could not only trade for Stanton but also get under the luxury tax for 2018.
This is going to involve math.
This is going to involve the Eric Stephen Special – his Dodger payroll worksheet.
This is going to involve speculation
Getting Stanton doesn’t seem so hard. The Marlins want to trade him, he has a huge contract making him less desirable for teams who don’t have the capital to afford him, he has a no-trade contract and would like to play for the Dodgers. He would like to play for a winner so I don’t think the Giants are exactly in play for him given their present and probable future situation.
What is hard, is adding Stanton and his contract and staying under the threshold for 2018. A task made harder by the horrible Cuban contracts still on the books for Oliveras / Erisbel Arruebarrena / Yaisel Sierra. According to Eric $10M is still owed Arruebarrena and Sierra for 2018 but he does not have Oliveras on his worksheet. Baseball Reference says we owe Oliveras. I’ll always trust Eric on this and go with the $10M for the two players mentioned. Not only did the Dodgers get zero return on an investment of $50M but that cost is now problematic as they try to get below the Luxury Tax in 2018.
Still, it could be accomplished but how? And the bigger question besides how, is should they?
| 2018 | 28 | $25,000,000 | 7.118 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 29 | $26,000,000 | |||
| 2020 | 30 | $26,000,000 | may opt out of contract following 2020 season | ||
| 2021 | 31 | $29,000,000 | |||
| 2022 | 32 | $29,000,000 | |||
| 2023 | 33 | $32,000,000 | |||
| 2024 | 34 | $32,000,000 | |||
| 2025 | 35 | $32,000,000 | |||
| 2026 | 36 | $29,000,000 | |||
| 2027 | 37 | $25,000,000 | |||
| 2028 | 38 | $25,000,000 | |||
Working with $25M for 2018, we need to turn to the Eric Stephen Luxury tax worksheet we mentioned above. The Luxury Tax in 2018 will be $197M. According to Eric the Dodgers are currently at $179M for 20 players on a 40 man roster.
If we add Stanton that puts the Dodgers at $214 for 21 players on a 40 man roster.
So we need to do some serious deducting.
Since the Marlins are trying to get out from under the Stanton contract the only way the Dodgers can deal with them is if they take some bad contracts back from the Dodgers that will expire after 2018. That won’t be hard as the team has a series of bad contracts that expire in 2018.
I’m speculating that two bad contracts and four other parts could persuade the Marlins to make the move.
Scott Kazmir is one. According to Eric his Luxury Tax salary for 2018 would be $15M. That is a nice place to start.
Brandon McCarthy is another one. Again, according to Eric his Luxury Tax salary for 2018 would be $12M.
Boom you just removed $27M from your payroll while adding $25M.
But hey, if you going to ask the Marlins to take Kazmir and McCarthy you have to give them some toys.
Joc Pederson and Alex Verdugo would be some nice toys for them. Two possible cost-controlled starting outfielders for years to place around Yelich. Pederson is estimated to make $2M in 2018 from arbitration.
Right now you have given them two starting pitchers whose contracts expire in 2018. If either of them show anything they might be able to flip them this summer and get more toys. If they don’t, they are done with the contracts after 2018.
You have a starting left or right fielder in Joc Pederson. Plenty of warts but plenty of promise.
I already see a problem here. Three left-handed outfielders. The assumption here is that Marcell Ozuna will also be traded as he’s about to get very expensive and would bring back some very nice parts.
I’m going to swap out Alex Verdugo with Enrique Hernandez who is only estimated to make $1.3M in 2018. If the Marlins are able to deal Dee Gordon as they are trying to do, Hernandez can become their 2nd baseman. This is also a team that had Riddle and Miguel Rojas start 130 games at shortstop so you could see where Hernandez could be used.
The next two toys are just my speculation. One will be Wilmer Font the PCL pitcher of the year. He may or may not be anything but he’s worth the Marlins finding out.
The final toy has to be a real prospect. I would give them a choice between the right hand hitting CF Diaz or Dennis Santana. They were both in AA in 2017 and in most Dodger top ten prospect lists.
So what you have is Kazmir/McCarthy/Pederson/Hernandez/Font/Santana for the best power hitter in the National League in his prime.
You could easily argue the Dodgers don’t need Giancarlo Stanton. This was after all a team that just won 114 games, came one game short of a World Championship, and looks built to make another run in 2018 without Stanton.
But……… if you want to look not only at 2018 but after 2018 you might want someone like Stanton in your lineup.
Puig is probably gone after 2018 leaving a fairly large hole in RF. Stanton can fill this hole and when he fills the hole it will be a mountain.
You could also argue that Stanton isn’t healthy enough for the contract he has. I’m not sure getting hit in the face counts, and when it comes to health, recent bias works here and Stanton played 156 games in 2018. The most games any Dodger played in 2017 was 152 by Puig. You might remember that Puig also had health concerns entering 2017.
I kind of feel that Stanton is being discounted because of the contract and the fact he has the no-trade. If the price is right I think you do this deal provided the Marlins want to play ball with the 2018 contracts of Kazmir/McCarthy.
If you do that there are still plenty of ways to keep lowering the tab in 2018 before adding the contracts of the rest of the team.
Adrian Gonzalez certainly stands out. Adrian is a 10-5 guy but I doubt he wants to sit on the Dodger bench in his walk year. I would think that the Dodgers could find a team for Adrian if the Dodgers pay all but $5M of his salary, thus saving them $5M in 2017.
The Dodgers went with Austin Barnes as their starting catcher for most of the playoffs. Grandal was not hurt, he was simply made into the backup catcher. He’s due to make about $7.7M in arbitration this year. For a backup catcher. The Dodgers could either trade Grandal or simply not offer him arbitration thus freeing up another $8M (rounding up). A team with no conscious about their payroll budget could afford an $8M backup catcher. A team trying to get under the Luxury Tax cannot. Not with the unmoveable Cuban contracts still on the books. Just to show this isn’t complete speculation, a story appeared the day after I wrote this the the Dodgers are actively trying to trade Grandal.
“Rival clubs say #Dodgers are willing to trade catcher Yasmani Grandal, who is entering his final season of arbitration eligibility,” Morosi tweeted on Wednesday night. The Dodgers have not confirmed the report.
A projected 2018 team with Stanton:
1st – Bellinger, 2nd – Forsythe, SS – Seager, 3rd – Turner, C – Barnes
RF – Puig, CF – Taylor, LF – Stanton
Bench – Segedin, Toles, Thompson, Culberson, Backup Catcher type
Kershaw, Hill, Wood, Ryu, Maeda, Jansen, Cingrani, Avilan, Stewart, Stripling, Fields, Baez
Top prospects Verdugo and Buehler are still in AAA to start the year ready to help when injuries show up or they simply knock down the door. Others ready at AAA to help would be Locastro as the utility player and whoever they sign as veteran minor league depth.
A projected 2018 Lineup:
Taylor
Seager
Turner
Stanton
Bellinger
Puig
Forysthe
Barnes
Looks very intimidating does it not?
Of course, it does. But that is for 2018. And it will look just as good for 2019 – 2020. If Stanton ops out after 2020 isn’t that a win-win? That would mean he was so good over the prior three years that he and his agent feel they can do even better on the market than the huge contract he has. It also means the Dodgers would not be on the hook for the downside of his career.
The downside, of course, is that you would have Stanton on your books until the baseball age of 38. The final 3 – 5 years could just be Carl Crawford/Andre wasted money.
It could be. Stanton has no real comps. The closest physical specimen to him was Dave Winfield or Darryl Strawberry. Winfield was productive into his late 30’s. Straw of course had the huge drug problem and crashed early. It should also be noted that at the time the Dodgers got Strawberry he was also the best active player who had played baseball within 100 miles of Dodger Stadium. Unless it was Eric Davis.
Yikes
I created a leaderboard list to show what Stanton has accomplished. This is a list of every major league player 6’6 or more and what they had done by the age of 27 related to home runs.
Player HR Ht Age PA OBP SLG OPS Giancarlo Stanton 267 78 20-27 4120 .360 .554 .914 Adam Dunn 238 78 21-27 4098 .381 .519 .900 Darryl Strawberry 215 78 21-27 3928 .358 .520 .878 Troy Glaus 182 77 21-27 3479 .357 .497 .854 Frank Thomas 182 77 22-27 3492 .450 .593 1.044 Mark McGwire 178 77 22-27 3156 .351 .488 .839 Freddie Freeman 166 77 20-27 4304 .376 .496 .872 Dave Kingman 150 78 22-27 2456 .296 .482 .779 Richie Sexson 146 79 22-27 2645 .341 .521 .862 Dave Winfield 134 78 21-27 3869 .356 .466 .822 Derrek Lee 130 77 21-27 3314 .353 .467 .820 Tony Clark 127 80 23-27 2483 .351 .503 .855 Frank Howard 123 79 21-27 2321 .326 .495 .822 Jason Heyward 115 77 20-27 4502 .344 .412 .756 John Olerud 109 77 20-27 3689 .395 .471 .866 Mike Marshall 106 77 21-27 2550 .327 .457 .785
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/29/2017.
I don’t care what the Dodgers do. If they make the trade it would be exciting to have someone like Stanton on the team. If they don’t, the team itself will be exciting.
I just hope they are serious about getting under the luxury tax because anyone can simply outspend everyone else. I’d like to see what this management team can do while under some actual constraints.
Dodgers, Yesterday and Today 