Clayton Kershaw thru age 29 and other thoughts
One thing stands out for me when reviewing the accomplishments of the greatest pitchers in baseball history through their age 29 seasons. Of the fourteen pitchers to have accumulated at least 50 bWAR only two of them are left-handed. Clayton Kershaw and Hal Newhouser.
Only one of them pitched their full career in the 21st century and that is Clayton Kershaw.
Only two of them have a K% > than 25% and they both pitched for the Dodgers. Pedro Martinez and Clayton Kershaw.
Eleven became Hall of Famers. Kershaw should be unanimous even if he retired today while Roger Clemens is basically like Barry Bonds, a HOF in spirit just waiting for the smell of steroids to eventually waft away. Leaving Wes Ferrell who never had another good season after the age of 29.
Only three of them have an ERA+ > 160. Walter Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and Clayton Kershaw.
Player ERA+ WAR To Age IP H ER K% BB% Tm Walter Johnson 166 99.1 1917 19-29 3474.1 2669 655 17.3% 5.2% WSH Christy Mathewson 145 75.3 1910 20-29 3259.1 2690 702 15.4% 5.4% NYG Roger Clemens 152 63.1 1992 21-29 2031.0 1703 631 22.8% 6.7% BOS Bert Blyleven 126 59.7 1980 19-29 2841.1 2554 933 19.4% 6.6% MIN-TEX-PIT Tom Seaver 142 57.9 1974 22-29 2167.1 1723 595 21.5% 6.6% NYM Clayton Kershaw 161 57.4 2017 20-29 1935.0 1431 508 27.9% 6.7% LAD Pedro Martinez 169 57.1 2001 20-29 1693.0 1262 501 29.4% 6.9% LAD-MON-BOS Hal Newhouser 134 57.1 1950 18-29 2672.0 2362 880 14.8% 10.2% DET Bob Feller 134 56.4 1948 17-29 2471.0 1961 822 19.2% 12.0% CLE Robin Roberts 123 55.7 1956 21-29 2608.1 2468 923 12.3% 5.0% PHI Don Drysdale 122 52.5 1966 19-29 2848.1 2543 950 18.0% 6.2% BRO-LAD Pete Alexander 141 51.5 1916 24-29 2104.0 1765 509 14.4% 6.0% PHI Wes Ferrell 123 50.7 1937 19-29 2406.2 2569 1031 8.7% 8.8% CLE-BOS-WSH Greg Maddux 137 50.4 1995 20-29 2120.2 1877 679 17.0% 6.5% CHC-ATL
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Generated 12/28/2017.
How about a completely different look. The greatest pitchers after the age of 30. Will Clayton Kershaw also make this list when his career is over?
Eighteen pitchers accumulated more than 50 bWAR after the age of 30. Only Roger Clemens, Walter Johnson, and Greg Maddux made both lists. Four of them were left-handed giving credence to the idea that lefties take longer to get in the groove. We can blame Lefty Grove for this. I like the idea that Lefty Grove actually threw right handed but alas he really was a southpaw.
While those who care are arguing about the HOF case for Curt Schilling, ex-Dodger Kevin Brown waves his hand much like Gary Sheffield.
Player ERA+ WAR From To Age IP H ER BB SO K% BB% Lefty Grove 153 81.0 1930 1941 30-41 2686.1 2658 909 731 1429 12.6% 6.5% Randy Johnson 147 89.9 1994 2009 30-45 3062.0 2512 1062 879 3749 30.1% 7.1% Kevin Brown 143 50.7 1995 2005 30-40 1977.2 1757 644 473 1655 20.6% 5.9% Cy Young 137 72.7 1901 1911 34-44 3312.1 2900 779 413 1563 12.3% 3.3% Roger Clemens 137 76.3 1993 2007 30-44 2885.2 2482 1076 1028 2799 23.3% 8.6% Curt Schilling 134 63.7 1997 2007 30-40 2272.2 2118 870 420 2316 25.2% 4.6% Pete Alexander 132 65.5 1917 1930 30-43 3086.0 3103 967 452 995 7.9% 3.6% Bob Gibson 131 56.3 1966 1975 30-39 2436.0 2028 732 750 1907 19.2% 7.5% Walter Johnson 131 53.2 1918 1927 30-39 2440.0 2244 769 666 1204 12.0% 6.6% Greg Maddux 129 54.2 1996 2008 30-42 2887.2 2849 1077 438 1900 16.2% 3.7% Dazzy Vance 126 63.0 1922 1935 31-44 2933.2 2774 1050 817 2027 16.6% 6.7% Eddie Plank 125 53.1 1906 1917 30-41 2895.0 2470 706 717 1462 12.9% 6.3% Gaylord Perry 119 73.1 1969 1983 30-44 3989.2 3714 1384 1040 2533 15.5% 6.4% Jack Quinn 117 53.4 1914 1933 30-49 3232.1 3517 1191 707 1060 7.8% 5.2% Red Faber 117 54.4 1919 1933 30-44 3071.2 3227 1181 881 1004 7.7% 6.8% Warren Spahn 117 67.1 1951 1965 30-44 3960.1 3685 1360 1029 1930 11.9% 6.3% Phil Niekro 114 88.9 1969 1987 30-48 4800.1 4516 1840 1653 2999 14.8% 8.2% Nolan Ryan 113 54.9 1977 1993 30-46 3451.0 2584 1243 1615 3629 25.2% 11.2%
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/28/2017.
Dodger all-time prospect busts – Part I
I was all ready to do my 2nd installment of the good and bad of 2017 when Baseball Prospectus rolled out a prospect bust list for the 21st century. It included three Dodgers and while I agree with Andy LaRoche and Jtd (Joel the Destroyer Guzman), they also included Zach Lee which I thought was very strange.
Even though Zach Lee was a 1st round pick and was the Dodgers top prospect in 2011 and 2012 that was more because the Dodger farm system in 2011 and 2012 was horrible. Zach Lee never really showed much and never cracked a top ten prospect or even top 20 prospect list. Defining bust is subjective but for me, you have to have been considered by the prospect community to be a player capable of at least being an all-star type of talent.
Anyway, it got me thinking about the Dodger prospects who never lived up to expectations. Lately, Dodger fans are used to the prospects being exactly what was billed what with Yasiel Puig, Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Austin Barnes, Clayton Kershaw, and Kenley Jansen all being homegrown prospects. Other than Barnes they have all had high expectations and other than Joc Pederson have lived up to them. Joc has done just fine based on expectations, but when you are followed by the likes of Seager/Bellinger you can see where his own production looks a tad shallow.
But as any longtime Dodger fan could tell you, that was not always the case.
First I’m going to work backward and once I’ve come up with my list, I’ll list them subjectively how busted they were based on expectations.
Heh, I’ve already gone back to the 2011 prospect lists and haven’t found any busts. The problem is that the Dodgers had some really bad drafts during the McCourt/Colletti era and you’d be hard-pressed to find any of their prospects make top twenty lists. For example the top prospect in 2011 and 2012 was Zach Lee but as I already showed above the highest he ever hit a Baseball America or MLB top prospect list was 45. He was certainly a bust but then again he was never highly rated.
Let’s keep going.
Okay, I had to go all the way back to 2008 to find a legit prospect bust. That, of course, is Andy LaRoche who while never a top ten ranked prospect was a top twenty prospect for both 2006 and 2007 by Baseball American, while Baseball Prospectus had him at #14 for pre-2008. Yeah, he was a legit bust. Very possible that health was his issue (back) but we will never know.
Sadly it is going to get easier now as the Dodgers did have a plethora of highly ranked prospects who never quite reached the expectations from 2003 – 2007.
Scott Elbert just misses the cut. I thought he was more highly ranked but he stalled out in the 30’s.
Good time for JtD aka Joel Guzman to make the list. Joel got his nickname Joel the Destroyer when he appeared in the futures game as a 19-year-old shortstop and proceeded to awe the scouts with his “light tower power”. JtD became a prospect darling at the age of 19 when he crushed AA pitching as part of the Jacksonville Five in 2004. I can remember his minor league equivalent saying his AA 19-year-old season would have produced an OPS over .800 in major league baseball. I’ll never forget the hype about the 6’6 teen-age shortstop and I fell for it until the day I saw him in a major league game. I’m not a scout, but he was the least athletic middle infielder I’d ever seen so I thought for sure he would end up a 1st baseman or left fielder. He did, but he also never hit. He stunk. Really really stunk. No positional Dodger was ever ranked as high as Joel Guzman by Baseball America until Corey Seager showed up.
Prospect ranking is not a science. The year that Joel Guzman was ranked the Dodgers top prospect Matt Kemp was ranked 14th. Matt Kemp was never in the Baseball America top 100 because he came to fast for them. Actually, he was ranked 96th in 2006 but by the summer of 2006 he was already in the majors and used up his prospect status. I talked to scouts in the winter of 2005 who felt Matt Kemp was a fourth outfielder. I’ve never quite trusted scouts. Really.
Here we go. Edwin Jackson. On his 20th birthday in 2003 he beat Randy Johnson in his first major league start. This start would rank as one of the all-time debuts in baseball history. Baseball America had him ranked as the 4th best prospect in all of baseball headed into 2004. Edwin Jackson has had a long career which includes one of the strangest no-hitters in baseball history but unlike Chad Billingsley never had one consistently good season much less a great one.
But Edwin Jackson was not even the biggest bust for me from the 2004 list. That would have been Greg Miller. Greg Miller was everything that Clayton Kershaw was at the age of 18. Hell, he was even more advanced than Clayton Kershaw at that age. Greg Miller dominated AA pitching at the age of 18. Sadly that was his peak, injury after injury kept Greg Miller from ever fulfilling his destiny and he never pitched in one major league game. Of all the Dodgers prospects I’ve followed the demise of Greg Miller was my greatest disappointment.
Righthander Edwin Jackson emerged as one of the most promising pitching prospects in baseball and won a surprise spot start in September. And some scouts say lefthander Greg Miller is even better than Jackson. That one-two punch can�t be matched by any organization, and Evans has deemed them all but untouchable.
Read more at https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2004-los-angeles-dodgers-top-10-prospects/#WRguIGOECmmyVWQy.99
This seems like a good ending point and I’ll have to break this into multiple parts. Time for my list of the 21st-century busts.
- Greg Miller – a real bust, zero major league games
- Joel Guzman – a real bust, barely any major league games
- Andy LaRoche – real bust
- Edwin Jackson – the least bust because he had a long career and once in a while would remind of the promise of Sept 9th, 2003.
Only four real busts in seventeen years. One view is that is pretty damn good, the other view is that from 2000 – 2003, and 2008 – 2012 the Dodgers simply didn’t have any good prospects.
The bottom line is that the Dodger prospects in the 21st century have delivered on that promise more times than not.
2017 Good and bad Part I
Time for end of year lists and luckily for Dodger fans the year was loaded with amazing moments and stories.
The Good:
Puig Resurrection – Puig went from being demoted to AAA in August of 2016 to batting eight for much of the first 1/2 of 2017 to batting cleanup in game three of the NLCS. Puig may have struggled in the World Series but he did have an OPS over 1.100 in both the NLDS and NLCS. The Puig that arrived in August was a Puig that had not been seen before. Calm and patient with power. Over the season Puig hit at least four but never more than six home runs in every month. This new Puig will be an MVP candidate in 2018.
The Bad:
Andre Ethier proved his 2016 injury-marred season was no fluke by following it up with just about the exact same season. In 2016 Andre managed 26 plate appearances. In 2017 he moved that up to 38. The Dodgers paid Andre Ethier $35M for 64 plate appearances. I’m going to miss Andre but it seems he left us two years ago.
The Good:
Cody Bellinger broke into the major leagues with a bang and never stopped banging until the World Series. He won the Dodgers second positional ROY in two years and broke the NL rookie home run record set by Frank Robinson over a 1/2 a century ago. His mega skills were on full display as he showed he could beat you with his power, his clutch hitting, his speed, and his glove. All during his age 21-year-old season. Dodger fans had never seen anything like this from someone 21 years old who wasn’t named Fernando.
Player WAR/pos Year Age Tm PA BA OBP SLG OPS Pos Cody Bellinger 4.2 2017 21 LAD 548 .267 .352 .581 .933 *37/9H8D Adrian Beltre 3.9 1999 20 LAD 614 .275 .352 .428 .780 *5/H Adrian Beltre 3.4 2000 21 LAD 575 .290 .360 .475 .835 *5/H6 Willie Davis 2.4 1961 21 LAD 380 .254 .316 .451 .767 *8H Tommy Davis 2.3 1960 21 LAD 374 .276 .302 .426 .728 *8H79/5 Bill Russell 2.0 1970 21 LAD 304 .259 .303 .363 .667 *98/H67 Willie Crawford 2.0 1968 21 LAD 198 .251 .335 .400 .735 *7H/98 Pee Wee Reese 2.0 1940 21 BRO 361 .272 .366 .372 .738 *6/H
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/28/2017.
The Bad:
Adrian Gonzalez final season as a Dodger was a dud in many ways. Adrian went from never having been on the disabled list to being on the DL almost all year. He ended his career with the Dodgers by being flipped to the Braves in a salary dump deal and then being released by the Braves. After a consistent career his 2017 season was an Ethier.
The Good:
Kyle Farmer – getting your first hit is always cool, getting your first hit and driving in a run is even cooler, getting your first hit in the bottom of the 9th and driving in the winning run is as cool as it gets.
The Bad:
Ballyhooed number one prospect Alex Verdugo failed to impress with his bat, glove, or attitude in his brief trial in September.
The Good:
The Dodgers had the greatest pitcher of the 21st century on the mound and a 4 – 0 lead in pivotal game five of the World Series.
The Bad:
That pitcher gave up four runs in the bottom of the 4th to squander the lead. That said pitcher gave up four runs in a game only fifteen times in five years of 141 starts. In the regular season.
The Good:
The Dodgers scored three runs in the top of the fifth to give the greatest pitchers of the 21st century a 3 run lead in pivotal game five of the World Series
The Horrific:
That said pitcher gave up the lead. again.
The Good:
Clayton Kershaw when he pitched was once again the best pitcher in baseball during the regular season.
The Bad;
For the second season in a row Clayton Kershaw was sidelined by a back injury. This time he made 27 starts.
The Good:
Brandon Morrow was signed to a minor league deal but by the time the World Series rolled around you could make an argument he was the best setup man in baseball.
The Horrific:
Game five of the World Series happened. No outs, Four hits, Four runs.
Justin Turner walk off in NLCS game two is the 14th top play of 2017
Hernandez and Turner get back to back top plays of 2017 with their postseason heroics. Justin Turner hit the three-run walk-off home in game two of the NLCS that propelled the Dodgers to a 2 – 0 series lead.
Justin Turner had an outstanding 2017, documented below.
Kiké Hernandez NLCS Game 5 heroics clocks in at #15 in MLB top 100 plays of 2017
Cracking the top 20 plays of 2017 was the grand slam by Kiké Hernandez in game five of the NLCS. Hernandez also hit a solo home run earlier in the game.
All in all, Kiké had an outstanding 2017.
Bellinger hitting 39th home run is 22nd greatest play of 2017
I expected Cody Bellinger to crack this list but wasn’t sure which home run would do it, but I guess breaking the NL rookie home run record works.
Of course Cody had a plethora of highlights in 2017
Adrian Beltre collecting 3000th hit for 25th among top MLB plays of 2017
He was a Dodger first, our own phenom who was starting for the Dodgers at age 19 and the one we let get away after 2004. Many years later, Adrian Beltre does something very few 3rd baseman have ever done, collecting his 3000th hit.
This future HOF will stand tall with the greatest third baseman in baseball history and still holds one of the greatest seasons in Dodger history back in 2004 when he assaulted pitchers like Van Helsing going after vampires.
Player HR WAR/pos Year Age PA BA OBP SLG OPS Pos Adrian Beltre 48 9.5 2004 25 657 .334 .388 .629 1.017 *5/H6 Duke Snider 42 8.6 1955 28 653 .309 .418 .628 1.046 *8/H Duke Snider 42 9.3 1953 26 680 .336 .419 .627 1.046 *8/H Mike Piazza 40 8.7 1997 28 633 .362 .431 .638 1.070 *2/DH Duke Snider 40 8.4 1954 27 679 .341 .423 .647 1.071 *8/H Matt Kemp 39 8.2 2011 26 689 .324 .399 .586 .986 *8/DH Jackie Robinson 19 8.5 1952 33 636 .308 .440 .465 .904 *4/H Jackie Robinson 19 9.7 1951 32 642 .338 .429 .527 .957 *4/H Jackie Robinson 16 9.6 1949 30 704 .342 .432 .528 .960 *4 Willie Davis 12 8.3 1964 24 652 .294 .316 .413 .729 *8/H
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/27/2017.
Chase Utley again at #29 in MLB top 100 plays of 2017
The silver fox at 38 years old is not someone you would have expected to populate the top 100 plays of 2017 more than once but here is once again clocking in at number 29. This play on August 23rd was not only outstanding it preserved the perfect game in progress by Rich Hill.
For a guy who only played three years for the Dodgers, Chase sure lit it up the highlight reel.
His play in 2016 at 2nd base was one of the greatest of the year.
Ryu/Gonzalez combine for # 67 on MLB top 100 plays of 2017
It wasn’t pretty but the play by the Ryu on a weak ground ball toward 1st made the list. Ryu fielded the ball and was close to Adrian Gonzalez but was headed away from the bag so he flipped it toward Gonzalez who caught with his bare hand against his shoulder. This game was on April 18th against the Rockies but it didn’t help the Dodgers win as they lost to the Rockies 4 – 3.
At that point in the season, Adrian Gonzalez was still the Dodger 1st baseman and Cody Bellinger was tearing up Oklahoma. Gonzalez had started thirteen games and had yet to hit a home run.
Puig cracks the MLB top 100 plays of 2017 at 89
On April 24th Puig unleashed his arm on Brandon Belt with a throw that put him in the top 100 MLB plays of 2017.
Here is a reminder from youtube just how dangerous the arm of Puig has been since he exploded on the baseball scene in 2013.
Dodgers, Yesterday and Today 