Gavin Lux turning heads in Rancho
Lux was an easy pick for the Farm Factory Award for the Week of 04/30 – 05/06. For the week Lux went twelve for twenty-four with five walks but that is just the tip of the iceberg for how hot Gavin Lux has been.
It took Gavin Lux about two years to get his those hitting shoes fitted just right after being drafted number one by the Dodgers in 2016 and just as the Dodgers were looking light in middle infield prospects, Gavin is giving the Dodgers some hope that they have an in-house option for the future when Corey Seager will need to move off of shortstop. He could also be helping the Dodgers in making his case as a valuable trade chip if a certain team would like a shortstop in return for their own. A number one pick always has some cache, a number one pick who is beasting has even more.
On the season Lux has a triple stat line of .351 / .451 / .920. For the year Lux has an OPS of 1.062.
His leaderboard highlights for the California League so far:
- 1st in Runs Scored with 25
- 1st in walks with 20
- 2nd in OB% at .451
- 2nd in hits with 39
- 3rd in BA at .351
- 3rd in doubles with 10
The Dodgers used Lux at shortstop for sixty-five games and at second for forty-three games in 2017. This year Lux is almost exclusively being used as a shortstop with twenty-one of twenty-seven starts coming at the shortstop position.
Other Prospect Notes:
Two of the Dodgers best pitching prospect finally showed up this past week with Mitchell White making his first start of the year for Tulsa and Dustin May making his first start of the year for Rancho.
Donovan Solano continues to tear up AAA in Oklahoma. The veteran shortstop is hitting .372 but is not on the 40 man roster.
Manny Banuelos continues to make his case for a spot in the Dodger rotation if anyone else should hit the DL. The lefty made another strong start, pitching five scoreless innings in his only start last week. Manny has only given up six earned runs in six starts this year, and more importantly has only walked seven in thirty innings which is the best IP/Walk ratio of his career.
Yadier Alvarez continues to get pounded and just went on the DL.
Dennis Santana and Caleb Ferguson continue to pitch well for Tulsa. Ferguson has now made three straight starts in which he has not given up a run. Overall, Caleb has given up just one earned run all season in twenty-seven innings.
Bud Norris?
It was twenty-two months ago when the Dodgers traded for Bud Norris to replace Clayton Kershaw in the rotation. It seemed laughable at the time given we were talking about Bud Norris, but Bud had a bit of a comeback season going on in Atlanta and had just thrown seven innings of shutout ball in his last start for the Braves.
The Dodgers acquired Norris at the end of June, and he made his first start on July 1st and threw six innings of shutout ball against the Rockies. Norris would go onto make nine starts for the Dodgers, of which two (including the first one) could have been construed as successful. That wasn’t what the Dodgers needed and he ended up in the bullpen and did not pitch in the 2016 postseason.
The following season, Bud couldn’t find employment until Feb 1st, when the Angels signed him to major league pittance of $1.75 million. Bud Norris was a bit of a savior for the Angels as all their current and future closers fell by the wayside, and on April 22nd, Bud Norris notched the first of nineteen saves for the Angels. He was lights out for the Angels in April/May/June posting OPS against of .492 / .624 / .658. That all came to a halt in July and August where he was tattooed with an OPS against of .921 / .960.
Overall, Bud Norris appeared in 60 games, it was the first time in his career that he spent almost all of it as a relief pitcher. He had enough success that you would have thought he could get a major league contract.
Bud had to wait this year until Feb 14th to get his major league contract. Luckily for the Cardinals, they reached out and brought him into their bullpen for $3 Million. Bud Norris has helped save the Cardinal season. Going into the season, they were expected to use Luke Gregerson as the closer. Luke had 66 career saves but was coming off his worst season for the World Champion Astros. Gregerson was not healthy so the Cardinals signed Greg Holland to be the closer on March 31st. They gave Holland a one year $14 Million dollar deal to be the closer for 2018. Since they cut it close Holland was not going to ready to start the year as the closer so they turned to Dominic Leone. Leone blew a save and lost the game in his second appearance. In his fifth appearance on April 8th he lost another game. On April 9th the Cardinals panicked and activated Holland who promptly gave up four runs and lost the game.
The Cardinal bullpen was hemorrhaging and you know who staunched the bleeding?
Bud Norris. Bud Norris has six saves. Bud Norris has zero blown saves. Bud Norris has struck out twenty-two batters in only fifteen innings with only two walks, fifteen hits, and three earned runs. He has three one-run saves. He has a FIP of 1.75. Bud Norris has been one of the top ten relief pitchers in the National League and it isn’t a mirage. His underlying numbers back it all up.
| Name | WAR | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
| Josh Hader | 1 | 18 | 19.5 | 2.5 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.53 |
| Adam Ottavino | 0.8 | 17 | 16.41 | 2.12 | 0.53 | 0.57 | 1.03 |
| Carl Edwards Jr. | 0.7 | 13.2 | 15.15 | 3.29 | 0.66 | 0.89 | 2.39 |
| Shane Carle | 0.7 | 18.2 | 8.2 | 2.41 | 0.96 | 2.14 | 3.49 |
| Archie Bradley | 0.7 | 16.2 | 10.26 | 2.7 | 1.62 | 1.78 | 2.91 |
| Jeurys Familia | 0.6 | 15 | 10.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 2.16 | 3.42 |
| Tony Watson | 0.6 | 13.2 | 9.88 | 1.98 | 0.66 | 1.62 | 2.66 |
| Jeremy Jeffress | 0.6 | 17.2 | 6.62 | 2.04 | 0.51 | 2.36 | 3.08 |
| Drew Steckenrider | 0.5 | 14.2 | 12.89 | 1.84 | 1.23 | 1.32 | 2.18 |
| Bud Norris | 0.5 | 15.2 | 12.64 | 1.15 | 1.72 | 1.75 | 2.13 |
This was a guy anyone could have had as late as February 1st, 2018. Anyone. The Cardinals signed him. The twenty Dodger analytics and the enlightened Dodger front office wanted this guy once for a different purpose when he replaced Kershaw. Too bad they couldn’t have seen how a repurposed Bud Norris is now just another failed starter making his mark as a dominant relief pitcher.
It may not last, he wore out last year, but it is also possible that with a full season of relief outings under his belt, Bud Norris is coming into his own.
A problematic victory
First the good news. Once Ryu went down and the Dodgers had to turn to the bullpen in the second inning, it seemed very unlikely they could pull out a victory. When they only managed to score two runs it seemed even unlikelier. Yet, baseball being baseball the bullpen shut down the Diamondbacks until Kenley Jansen entered the game, and luckily for Jansen, they hit three balls right at Dodger fielders and the team came away with a well earned 2 – 1 victory to break their four-game losing streak.
Dodger fans can rejoice for a brief moment with the improbable victory last night but it came with a cost. For the past thirty days, Ryu was neck and neck with Alex Wood for the best pitcher on the team and the beleaguered Dodgers could ill afford to lose him but that is what happened yesterday. Not only did the Dodgers lose Ryu, the offense continued to sputter tallying only two runs once again.
The Dodgers have played ten games starting with Monday, April 23rd. In those ten games, they have scored two runs four times, and three runs twice. In the midst of all that was the fifteen run outburst on Saturday but that outburst can’t hide the fact, this Dodger team, as it is currently constructed, is going to struggle to score runs.
If you have a team that is going to struggle to score, you need to have the pitching to offset that struggle. You need a bullpen to shut down the opposition so those meager runs can hold up for victory at least 55% of the time. Last night, for the first time in a week, the bullpen did the job and was fantastic.
The closer, not so much. Kenley Jansen got the save but it was not a save any Dodger fan can find solace in. Kenley had a two-run lead to work with. He gave back one of those runs and ended the game with the winning run on base. He faced five batters, and every batter struck the ball hard. He didn’t throw one swing and miss pitch. Not one. Out of nineteen pitches. Kenley Jansen cannot be successful if hitters make contact. The velocity seems back, but the wicked cutter is not so wicked. Time should solve this, but it has been a month and every Dodger fan is holding their breath when KJ is asked to bring home a save. Last year Jansen walked seven hitters in 68 innings. This year he has walked six in just twelve innings. I didn’t heave a sigh of relief last night after that effort. I won’t sigh that relief until I see Jansen throw unhittable pitches, and we have not seen that at all this year. This team is not good enough offensively without Turner/Seager to have a closer who can’t get it done. The next time, the lead may not be two runs.
This team can afford one hit to the rotation at a time. Walker Buehler is a fantastic option to replace anyone in the rotation, but beyond Walker, it could get dicey. Rich Hill is supposed to be back this weekend so Walker could slide right into Ryu’s spot as Ryu mends from his leg injury. Hopefully, they don’t have another pitcher go down.
But………..isn’t every Dodger fan wondering if Kershaw’s back is okay? He certainly isn’t pitching like Kershaw. Is it just the first step in a natural declining phase for a 30-year-old pitcher with almost 2,000 innings on his arm? Or is it more sinister, and a back issue? Given he has had two consecutive seasons with back issues it does seem reasonable to me, to worry about this issue.
The Dodgers didn’t have enough confidence in Brock Stewart to make the start this past Monday, giving that start instead to a pitcher who never pitched more than two innings in any game in 2018. Would they turn once again to Ross Stripling if they need another starter? Dodger fans have to hope they don’t find out the answer to that question.
What now?
With the season-ending injury to Corey Seager and the comments by the Dodgers that they expect to use internal options how will the Dodgers look for the rest of the year?
The Dodgers had two options to replace Seager, Chris Taylor or Kiké Hernandez. Taylor was the starting center fielder but the Dodger opted to remove Taylor from center field and install him as the everyday shortstop. Center field now looks like it will be manned by Kiké and Joc. One week ago that seemed absurd but Joc is now the hottest hitting Dodger and that platoon looks as good as I expected the left field platoon of Kiké/Joc to be before Matt Kemp joined the party.
Speaking of Matt Kemp the Dodgers are quite lucky he decided to get in baseball shape because now they need him more than ever. Alex Verdugo will now take over the Joc role as his caddy. Verdugo has a chance now to prove what his high prospect status was all about. He showed off his arm yesterday but airmailing a throw home is not what we are used to from right field. The strength is there, but is the accuracy? He also looked a bit out of touch in RF on one ball. If Matt Kemp had flailed at that ball as Verdugo did the anti-Kemps would still be mocking him today.
Eventually, Justin Turner (hopefully two weeks) will return to 3rd base. How much he will hit like Justin Turner remains to be seen, as wrist injuries could be troublesome for a while.
Eventually, Yasiel Puig will return to right field. Puig needs to get going. For a while, he was hitting the ball hard into hard luck, but before his recent injury, he had simply stopped hitting.
Eventually, Logan Forsythe will return to second base. And that might be the biggest problem with all this switching around. Kiké can no longer play second since he’s now in CF against LHP. The Dodgers have no viable minor league prospects to take his spot. Logan was not very good last year until late in the season. They attributed that to early season injuries. He has been horrible so far this year, and maybe once again that is attributable to injuries. Logan Forsythe will need to hit when he comes back. Chase has been outstanding with the bat, but his glove now looks like that of an old second baseman. Eventually, his bat will too. The other Dodger option for second base if Logan fizzles out is Austin Barnes who has gotten a few starts there lately. Farmer could become the backup catcher to Grandal but the Dodgers have barely (ever) used him at catcher so far.
The Dodgers can mix and match with the best of them, but Corey Seager was a MVP type of talent and you don’t replace that with mix and matches. The Dodgers have plugged the holes, but will they hold back the damn? Only if they don’t get any new holes.
Have I mentioned how bad the bullpen seems to be right now?
Must win game on May 1st?
The Dodgers weren’t expected to win Monday with bullpen pitcher Ross Stripling going against Greinke and it played out as expected. Tonight is different, tonight Clayton Kershaw needs to be Clayton Kershaw and give the Dodgers a chance for victory.
Eight games back on May 1st with three games to go on the road against the hottest team in the NL just might qualify as a must-win game. I hope Clayton is healthy because the Clayton we have seen the last two starts does not look like a healthy Kershaw. If Clayton Kershaw has a big game in him, now would be the time to unveil it. Given the number of high-quality players missing from the Dodger offense and the recent ineffectiveness of the bullpen, he may need to throw seven scoreless innings and hope KJ and company can hold any lead they might have.
They have won the NL West Division by the following margins.
| 2013 | 11 |
| 2014 | 6 |
| 2015 | 8 |
| 2016 | 4 |
| 2017 | 11 |
The Diamondbacks are smelling blood and even as they are missing Ray/Walker/Lamb/Miller they continue to crush their opponents. An eight-game lead on the team that beat you by eleven games in the standings is impressive. If Kershaw can’t staunch the bleeding tonight, the Diamondbacks will be well on their way to another series victory and possibly a double-digit lead by the time this series is over.
Manny Machado time?
With the news that Corey Seager is headed for surgery and will miss the rest of the 2018 season, it just so happens that possibly the best shortstop in baseball is actually available if the Dodgers decide to make a play for him.
I have pretty much ignored all the Manny Machado trade talk since the Dodgers had no place to put him, but that landscape has dramatically changed. No team in baseball needs Manny Machado as much as the Dodgers do right now.
He’s a one-year rental and the price will be high. How high, I have no idea but this is what I’d be putting together.
Package One – All players bubbling at the major league level who are under team control for quite a while. Have to say, this is more quantity than quality but the Orioles have so many holes that each of these players could actually find playing time.
- Alex Verdugo – ready to be their starting right fielder. Top positional prospect in the Dodger system.
- Edwin Rios – ready to challenge Pedro Alvarez/Trumbo for DH duties. Has bat with no place to play.
- Brock Stewart – ready to step into the rotation
- Tim Locastro – could be their shortstop
- Manny Banuelos –
Package two – Prospect Package – One from each level
- Alex Verdugo – ready to be their starting right fielder. Top positional prospect in the Dodger system.
- Dennis Santana – ready to step into the rotation next year or possibly even help this year. Santana has worked himself up the prospect ladder where some think he’s the second best pitching prospect in the Dodger system.
- Gavin Lux – 2016 number one pick
Package three – Mix n Max
- Kiké Hernandez – they will need a starting SS for Machado
- Alex Verdugo or Andrew Toles
- Brock Stewart or Dennis Santana
- Will Smith or Connor Wong
Something bold
Chris Taylor – starting shortstop, Dodgers would need to play Joc in CF.
Andrew Toles – ready to be a starting outfielder when he comes off the DL
Brock Stewart – ready to be in the starting rotation
If I was the Orioles I think I’d have to look hard at package three. I expect everyone will think they are overpaying for a one-year rental. They might be, but without Walker Buehler in the deal, you will need quantity with some quality. This is, after all, Manny Machado.
These are just spitballing idea’s, but I do hope the Dodgers are at least contacting the Orioles and checking into what it is going to take to bring Machado to Los Angeles for at least one year.
Caleb Ferguson takes weekly FFA
Caleb Ferguson doesn’t get the press of the other Dodger pitching prospects. Much more has been written about his teammates, Dennis Santana and Yadier Alvarez, but it is Caleb Ferguson who keeps on plugging away solid game after solid game. This week he threw two gems and won the weekly FFA award.
Caleb did it by making two starts, throwing eleven innings, giving up nine hits, zero earned runs, walking three and striking out eleven. Caleb has now given up just one earned run in his last four starts with twenty-six strikeouts in just twenty innings. He has statistically been the best Dodger pitching prospect so far in April.
Manny Bañuelos also pitched two gems last week. The one time prized NYY prospect is trying to get his career back on a path to the major leagues and statistically, he appears to be moving in the right direction. Walks have plagued him for several years, but so far in 2018 he has gotten the walks under control. In the two starts last week, Manny threw nine innings, gave up seven hits, three earned runs, walked just one, and struck out fifteen. Overall, Manny now has pitched twenty-five innings, given up just eighteen hits, six earned runs, four walks, and twenty-nine strikeouts. Whatever tweaks the Dodger pitching coaches did, seem to be working.
Rancho 3rd baseman Rylan Bannon had one hit in every game last week. One hit. Three times that one hit was a home run giving him eight on the year and a share of the California League home run lead with eight. He shares that with teammate Connor Wong who did not hit a home run last week.
2016 first round pick Gavin Lux is heating up for Rancho. The twenty-year-old shortstop collected ten hits in nineteen at-bats last week. Included in that was his first home run of the year. He also picked up five walks making him an on-base machine. Lux played 2nd/SS in 2017 but the Dodgers have pretty much left him alone at shortstop this year.
4th place Dodgers take on 1st place Diamondbacks
As April turns to May the Dodgers head to Arizona where they take on the 1st place Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks aren’t just in first place, they have won every series so far this year and take a sparkling 19-8 record into the four-game match. The Dodgers could sweep the Diamondbacks and still be three games back of 1st place.
Much has been made of the Dodgers slow start last year and how they still managed to win 104 games in 2017. This does not feel like last year. None of the pieces seem to fit right now no matter how much Dave Roberts juggles the lineup. Three catchers have now started three games as he tries to plug holes at 2nd and 3rd base. Farmer is not an everyday 3rd baseman, nor is Max Muncey.
Even with the offensive explosion in game one of the doubleheader on Saturday, the Dodgers had a poor week. They dropped three of four games against the Giants, They lost two of three games against a very poor Miami team. This was a week in which the Dodgers needed to make some hay, instead, they laid down in it.
Now they face the best team in the National League who would like nothing more than to rub the Dodger faces further into the quagmire they have created. The Dodgers will try to counter this with Ross Stripling starting the first game of the series because Rich Hill cannot go. Why Ross Stripling? He has pitched all of fourteen innings in ten games this season. Brock Stewart was brought up yesterday, he has started every game in AAA with good results. Expect the Dodgers to be down by five runs come the fifth inning.
The Diamondbacks have not been without their own injuries. They lost a key member of their rotation for the year a few weeks ago. They haven’t had their own all-star 3rd baseman since April 2nd. They have actually batted Delcaso at clean up and won games. Right now everything is going right for the Diamondbacks, the Dodgers have to hope that stops this week. Good luck with that.
One thing that won’t happen today is someone cracking this leaderboard. A plethora of pitchers have had great games in Arizona but it is a strange list. Clayton Kershaw has done it three times, but no one else has done it more than once. They were all brilliant just that one time. Kevin Brown, Kaz Ishii, Hideo Nomo, Ramon Martinez, Chad Billingsley, Jose Lima, Chan Ho Park, Zack Greinke, Brad Penney, Darren Dreifort, Odalis Perez, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Derek Lowe. Kuroda is notable for his absence.
Player Date Opp Rslt IP H ER BB SO GSc Kevin Brown 2000-06-15 ARI W 4-0 9.0 4 0 0 10 89 Kazuhisa Ishii 2004-07-07 ARI W 11-0 9.0 1 0 1 5 89 Hideo Nomo 2003-03-31 ARI W 8-0 9.0 4 0 1 7 85 Ramon Martinez 1998-05-23 ARI W 7-1 9.0 2 1 0 6 85 Chad Billingsley 2011-05-14 ARI L 0-1 8.0 1 0 2 8 84 Jose Lima 2004-05-29 ARI W 10-0 8.0 2 0 1 7 84 Chan Ho Park 1998-07-24 ARI W 3-1 8.0 2 1 2 11 83 Clayton Kershaw 2017-07-04 ARI W 4-3 7.0 2 0 2 11 82 Zack Greinke 2015-09-13 ARI W 4-3 8.0 3 0 2 8 82 Brad Penny 2005-07-01 ARI W 7-0 8.0 3 0 1 7 82 Clayton Kershaw 2018-04-15 ARI W 7-2 7.0 2 1 0 12 81 Darren Dreifort 1998-05-22 ARI W 5-0 9.0 6 0 0 6 81 Odalis Perez 2003-07-05 ARI W 2-0 8.0 3 0 0 5 81 Clayton Kershaw 2011-05-13 ARI W 4-3 7.0 3 0 2 11 80 Hyun-Jin Ryu 2014-04-11 ARI W 6-0 7.0 2 0 1 8 80 Derek Lowe 2008-09-05 ARI W 7-0 8.0 2 0 2 4 80
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/30/2018.
Blach party
Once again, Ty Blach silenced the Dodger bats and sent the team off to Arizona with a faint smell of desperation in the air. Ty Blach has now made seven career starts against the Dodgers in barely two seasons plus, and in those seven games, the Dodgers have not been able to score more than two runs in any of them. It isn’t just Ty Blach as he has only pitched into the seventh in three of those seven games, it is just every game he starts against the Dodgers, the bats go into sleep mode. He’s not brilliant, but he is certainly effective.
Date Opp Rslt IP H ER BB SO GSc IR 2018-04-29 LAD W 4-2 6.0 6 2 1 4 55 2018-04-08 LAD L 1-2 6.0 4 1 3 1 58 2018-03-29 LAD W 1-0 5.0 3 0 3 3 61 2017-07-29 LAD L 1-2 7.0 8 2 2 3 54 2017-05-16 LAD W 2-1 7.0 5 1 2 4 65 2017-04-25 LAD L 1-2 5.0 4 2 1 2 52 2016-10-01 LAD W 3-0 8.0 3 0 1 6 81
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/30/2018.
Kevin Elster still sits on top of the AT&T Total base leaderboard
It has been eighteen years since Kevin Elster blasted three home runs at AT&T park but only one other Dodger has managed at least ten total bases since that game and it was Yasiel Puig almost four years ago.
This weekend would be a good time for a current Dodger or Puig again to put their name on this leaderboard.
Player Date Rslt PA R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BB Kevin Elster 2000-04-11 W 6-5 4 3 3 0 0 3 12 4 1 Yasiel Puig 2014-07-25 W 8-1 5 2 4 1 3 0 11 2 0
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/27/2018.
Dodgers, Yesterday and Today 