Hopefully, a different take on the Dodger trade deadline

♦ July 22, 2019 ♦ Leave a comment

The trade deadline has always been an exciting time for fans as the buyers hope to acquire the piece that will give their team the edge come October, while the sellers hope to acquire the prospects or major league talent to change the fortunes of a team already out of a playoff run.

It also cuts both ways for the players. If you are on a team seeking another player and you are a key component of that team, you herald the front office search to add another piece to your October run, however, if you aren’t a key component the trade deadline could be maddening.  What if you love being a Dodger but to make the current Dodger team better, you might be the price they have to pay to make it happen.

It isn’t always prospects that get traded in these in-season deals. Molly Knight of the Atlantic wrote about every single Dodger July deal since their last World Championship.

These are the Dodgers who were on the 25-man roster when the deals were made as they attempted to strengthen their team.

Mariano Duncan, Tim Leary, Hiram Bocachica, Juan Encarnacion, Paul Lo Duca, Guillermo Mota, Sandy Alomar Junior, Willy Aybar, Danys Baez, Odaliz Perez, Cesar Izturis, Boom Boom Betemit, Andy LaRoche, James McDonald, Nathan Eovaldi, Matt Guerrier, Paco Rodriguez, and Logan Forsythe.

If you go through all the July trades that Molly documents you will find that over 95% of the deals are the Dodgers buying not selling. Sometimes that buying involved moving major league Dodgers. The biggest major league player to be traded was their starting catcher in 2004 Paul Lo Duca. It caused a big uproar at the time and Molly covers that in her story. Heck, just last year the Dodgers traded 2nd baseman Logan Forsythe for 2nd baseman Dozier.

Dodgers on the current 25-Man Roster or who have played in the majors this year that might be trade bait could be:

Austin Barnes or Russell Martin to open up a spot for Will Smith. Neither would bring back much, Martin could be moved to a contending team that wants a better backup, Barnes to a team willing to see if that 2017 magic can come alive again while knowing he’s a catcher that pitchers love having behind the plate. I think the Dodgers would be fine with a duo of either Smith/Barnes or Smith/Martin but they may not think so. We will find out in nine days. Keibert Ruiz was promoted to AAA which means the Dodgers have their two top catching prospects at the same level. That is a bit weird and hard to imagine that stays the case.

Kiké Hernádez which would open up a spot for uber-prospect Gavin Lux.  With Chris Taylor hurt and not due back until September I feel this might be a reach, but if Chris Taylor was here I think this would be in play.

Joc Pederson is the odd man out right now.  To try to get him in the lineup the Dodgers have used him at 1st base but the Dodgers have already said he won’t be playing 1st base come October. With a healthy outfield of Bellinger / Pollock / Verdugo and none of them needing to be platooned, he’s only going to get at-bats if someone gets hurt or when Dave Roberts makes room for him. The Dodgers have several minor league options to take his spot on the roster. Matt Beaty has shown he can play the outfield. Zach Reks is a left hand hitting outfielder who has hit 23 minor league home runs to go with his .935 OPS over two levels this year. At 25, he’s ready to show what he can do. Right-hand hitting OF Kyle Garlick has torn up AAA to the tune of a 1.105 OPS and already had a decent run with the Dodgers a few weeks ago. At 27 years old his time is also now. The surprise name on this might be DJ Peters who just a few weeks ago was having a sub-par season at AA. The Dodgers promoted Peters to AAA on June 27th and he’s done nothing but crush since his promotion. Peters hit eleven home runs in 250 at-bats in AAA but has already hit eight in only eighty at-bats at AAA. His strikeout rate has dropped significantly while increasing his walk rate. If you didn’t have his AA numbers staring at you, and you only saw his AAA numbers, you’d think he’s one of the top hitting prospects in AAA. Anyway, the point is that none of them are as good as Joc Pederson but if Joc can help bring in a piece that would help the team more than he would, he might be someone who will be playing on another team come August 1st.

Matt Beaty is already a Dodger legend even though he’s only had 123 major league plate appearances. He’s never been a highly-touted prospect. He barely squeezes into top 20 Dodger prospect lists. He’s blocked everywhere you look by Muncy, Verdugo, Joc, and Turner. I’m not sure what he’d bring back in a trade. I’m not sure you should even think of trading him. What a major league hit tool.

Kenta Maeda’s name never comes up in trade conversations. I don’t get it, he’s got a fantastic contract, he’d be a great addition to any rotation that isn’t the Dodgers. He doesn’t appear to have a no-trade clause. Eric Stephen said when he was signed that

  • In addition, Maeda receives a $1 million bonus each time he is traded.

He has worked well out of the bullpen but when he does pitch out of the bullpen he loses money. It has always made more sense to simply trade a great contract like Kenta for a better bullpen piece. In a normal year, you would hate to trade a rotation piece like Kenta but right now the Dodgers aren’t playing for the Western Division, that is in the bag, they are creating a roster for October. Kenta will not start in October, he hasn’t made a postseason start since 2016 and I doubt that would change in 2019. He’s headed for the bullpen but maybe he would bring back a better bullpen piece. Just saying.

Ross Stripling is another pitcher who is better suited to the rotation than the bullpen. He’s cheap and solid and might be the better option for a team looking to get younger, but still have an actual major league arm in the return

Caleb Ferguson probably has to be on this list which is really annoying. If Caleb had pitched this year like he did last year maybe the Dodgers aren’t searching for that other kickass relief arm. He hasn’t, and the price may be his to pay, which is to bad because I really like this guy.

 

Might be time for Keibert to learn how to talk like a Pirate

♦ July 18, 2019 ♦ Leave a comment

This is not a reactionary column to another poor outing by the Dodger bullpen, but it is about the season-long problems with the bullpen. The team is still on pace to win 105 games so at this point we only care about the wins in October.

I’ve followed Keibert and watched him climb up the Dodgers prospect ranking to take the number one spot this spring.  Many names have been bandied about to help the Dodger bullpen but far and away the best name and option belongs to Felipe Vazquez of the Pirates.

Via the Fangraphs Custom Date Tool, here the best relief pitchers via fWAR from 4/1/2017 – 7-17-2019.

Name IP WAR K/9 BB/9 HR/9 GB% FIP xFIP ERA
Felipe Vazquez 185.2 5.8 11.63 2.67 0.53 46.4 % 2.37 2.96 2.13
Josh Hader 175 5.3 15.17 3.34 1.13 29.0 % 2.65 2.57 2.31
Roberto Osuna 140.2 5.2 9.92 1.34 0.45 42.1 % 2.24 3.28 2.82
Blake Treinen 195.2 5.1 9.75 3.27 0.55 52.9 % 3 3.4 2.76
Sean Doolittle 135.2 5 11.14 1.79 0.73 30.1 % 2.44 3.62 2.45
Edwin Diaz 175.2 5 13.88 3.13 1.13 40.9 % 2.93 2.83 3.13
Aroldis Chapman 138.1 4.8 13.99 4.03 0.46 46.5 % 2.26 2.8 2.73
Kenley Jansen 178.2 4.6 12.19 1.61 1.21 35.6 % 2.85 2.88 2.52
Kirby Yates 161.2 4.6 13.64 2.51 1.06 39.6 % 2.67 2.77 2.51
Joakim Soria 160 4.4 10.46 2.81 0.51 43.1 % 2.61 3.45 3.71

Josh Hader, Osuna, Treinen, Doolittle, and Chapman are all on teams the Dodgers might have to beat in Oct to win a World Championship. Diaz was an elite bullpen arm but has given up three runs or more in four games this year and may not be the guy you want to mortgage some of your future for. Just ask the Mets.  Kenley Jansen is, of course, our guy. Kirby Yates might be available but I think he’s going elsewhere. Soria is the final guy on the list and the A’s aren’t moving him.

This leaves the best pitcher and the best option. Felipe Vazquez. The Pirates have a fighting chance at the Wild Card but not a very realistic one. Their team simply isn’t that good. To get Vazquez we can look to recent mid-summer deals for elite bullpen arms in the last few years.

In the summer of 2018, Brad Hand was dealt from the Padres along with Adam Climber for the Indians top prospect Francisco Mejia. That was the only prospect the Padres got. At the time of the deal, Brad Hand was in the middle of a contract that would keep him with the Indians through 2021. The Indians were swept in the ALDS by Houston with Brad Hand pitching in two games, getting five outs, giving up three hits and two earned runs. The Indians gave up their top prospect and got nothing from him in the postseason that would have prolonged their season.  They still have Brad Hand though, and maybe this year he will be the difference-maker in October. It is a trade I would have made.

On July 25th, 2016 the Cubs traded multiple prospects including Gleyber Torres to the NYY for Aroldis Chapman. Chapman appeared in 28 games for the Cubs during the regular season.  The Cubs would win the World Series with Chapman as their closer but it wasn’t like he was Mariano Rivera. Chapman was good enough that he only gave up runs in four of his eighteen games, but two of those games were games six and seven of the World Series.  The Cubs got what they wanted when they traded for Chapman, a World Series. They also gave up one of the best young players in baseball.

Headed into this spring Keibert Ruiz was considered the Dodgers top prospect. The previous summer at just nineteen years old he had acquited himself quite well in AA. He had a successful stint in the AFL. The switch-hitting catcher was generally considered the best catching prospect in baseball.  Keibert has struggled offensively this year in AA, but he’s still just twenty.  As far as the prospect list goes, Alex Verdugo is now a successful major league outfielder which dropped him off the list but Gavin Lux has emerged as the Dodgers best positional prospect.

In my own view, the Dodgers have several untradeable prospects. Those would be Gavin Lux, Dustin May, and Diego Cartaya. Keibert Ruiz is not one of them for one big reason. Will Smith. I have no doubt that Ruiz is going to a major league catcher, hopefully, a good one, but I also believe that Will Smith is also going to be a quality major league catcher. It is only because of Will Smith that I’d consider trading Ruiz but because of Smith, I do think the Dodgers could move Keibert Ruiz for Felipe Vazquez. I think it would take more than Ruiz to pry Vazquez from the Pirates. I would move three prospects for him only because I think this team really has a shot at the elusive World Championship and Vazquez is the guy who might help them get it.

Given the depth, on the major league roster, the Dodgers could actually move Joc Pederson for some prospects that they might move toward the Pirates. Or Kiké. Depth will win you the season but it won’t win you the World Series and the season has already been won.

Anyway using Dustin Noslers top 30 list I’d think a package of Keibert Ruiz, one of (Omar Estevez, Mitchell White, Matt Beaty), one of (Edwin Rios, Edwin Uceta, DJ Peters, Dennis Santana) might get it done.  Maybe it will take more, but I do think this is the guy the Dodgers should be targeting.

If they get Vazquez, he will help, but you never know how he will perform in the post-season. The Dodgers have a history of having their best regular-season relief pitchers come up short in the postseason but at least they would have another weapon and the quintet of Jansen/Vazquez/Urias/Kelly/ Baez would be formidable.

With Seager / Pollock / Freese returning who will be the odd man out?

♦ July 11, 2019 ♦ Leave a comment

The Dodgers get their 2nd half reinforcements on Friday when they are expected to activate Cory Seager, AJ Pollock, and David Freeze but it will come at a price to more than one Dodger who helped propel the team to the best record in baseball while the aforementioned were nursing their injuries.

Matt Beaty has already been optioned back to AAA, and we all recognized his great contributions while he was up. Kyle Garlick and Edwin Rios will be next. Heck of a July trade right? Cory Seager / AJ Pollock / David Freese for Matt Beaty / Kyle Garlick / Edwin Rios.

Dave Roberts will have to figure out how his new lineups will incorporate Taylor, Verdugo, Joc, Freese, and even Hernandez. Right now there simply aren’t enough starting spots for all the players who warrant starting gigs.

While Cory Seager was out, Chris Taylor reestablished himself as an everyday player by being one of the best hitters in the NL since June 11th (when Seager got hurt). Per Fangraphs, Taylor has been the 8th best offensive player in the NL with his 177 wRC+ since June 11th. Seager will slide right back into his SS position so Chris Taylor will need to find a spot somewhere in the lineup.

Name wRC+ WAR PA OBP SLG wOBA
Peter Alonso 213 1.7 103 0.466 0.741 0.489
Yasiel Puig 212 1.5 87 0.437 0.808 0.5
Cody Bellinger 184 1.5 96 0.396 0.732 0.447
Kris Bryant 183 1.3 93 0.452 0.634 0.452
Ketel Marte 181 1.4 90 0.456 0.627 0.453
Manny Machado 180 1.4 99 0.374 0.728 0.444
Chris Taylor 177 1.3 93 0.441 0.633 0.438
Charlie Blackmon 177 1 104 0.413 0.727 0.467
Juan Soto 176 1 92 0.457 0.644 0.445
Fernando Tatis Jr. 173 1.6 105 0.41 0.652 0.433

AJ Pollock got off to a slow start and quickly hit the disabled list due to an infection in his surgically repaired body. Alex Verdugo eventually took his spot in CF and has been one of the best center fielders in the NL while Pollock was mending. Using Fangraphs once again we can see how valuable Verdugo has been playing CF since April 29th. It should be worth noting that Pollock came to the Dodgers with a rep as an elite defensive CF and that Verdugo was not supposed to be a good CF. In 2019, Verdugo has been an above average defensive center fielder while Pollock in limited play was below average.

Name WAR Off Def OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ PA
Ketel Marte 3.1 18.2 5.4 0.388 0.595 0.405 150 263
Ronald Acuna Jr. 2.1 10.9 1 0.363 0.498 0.364 123 292
Starling Marte 1.7 7.1 1.1 0.34 0.487 0.347 115 283
Alex Verdugo 1.4 4 2.4 0.349 0.442 0.333 109 235
David Dahl 0.9 1.7 -0.4 0.344 0.513 0.356 105 250
Ian Desmond 0.9 5.9 -2.8 0.369 0.571 0.389 126 195
Nick Senzel 0.7 0.1 -0.4 0.325 0.455 0.329 100 236
Kevin Pillar 0.7 -1.2 0.7 0.298 0.433 0.304 89 242
Victor Robles 0.6 -1.9 1 0.326 0.424 0.32 94 226
Harold Ramirez 0.6 0.1 -0.4 0.323 0.387 0.306 92 195
Jason Heyward 0.5 -1.1 -1.7 0.323 0.434 0.319 96 235
Lorenzo Cain 0 -11.8 4.2 0.295 0.32 0.27 62 251

If Verdugo moves to LF to make room for Pollock in CF, where does that leave Joc? Both Pollock and Verdugo figure to be full-time players, not platoon players.

The Dodgers recognized the future logjam in the outfield and much to the chagrin of some Dodger fans gave Joc Pederson an in-season try out at 1st base. Joc did not look good at 1st base but if he is going to play, he may have to become a 1st baseman. I thought it was prudent of the Dodgers to entertain this idea since Max Muncy has established that he can play 2nd base. The problem now though is that Chris Taylor needs a place to play, and what about David Freese?

As much as we like Kiké he has lost his starting gig and I’m not even sure how he gets one or two starts per week going forward. Against right-hand pitching, I can see Bellinger/Pollock/Verdugo in the OF and Joc / Muncy / Seager / Turner as the infield leaving Taylor on the bench. Left-hand pitchers could have a lineup of Bellinger/Pollock/Verdugo and an infield of Muncy / Taylor / Seager / Turner.

That leaves Freese and Kiké on the bench all the time except for the occasional start where they rest Turner/Seager/Muncy/Pollock/Verdugo which is how Roberts can still get them some playing time besides Freese pinch hitting and Kiké being a defensive replacement. Expect all of the Dodgers except Bellinger to get plenty of rest in the second half as Dave Roberts tries to make everyone happy.

Of course, this whole exercise could be pointless given the complete health history of AJ Pollock and the recent health history of Cory Seager.

Seismic shift hits Los Angeles

♦ July 6, 2019 ♦ Leave a comment

Even though Kawhi Leonard to the Clippers had been rumored for well over a year by well-respected sources I don’t think many Clipper fans really felt it would happen. As Clipper fans have heard every day for forever, no superstar will ever WANT to play for the Clippers. My wife just came home from Dallas where her cousins ridiculed the idea that Kevin Durant would consider the Clippers after they were watching an ESPN show that suggested such a thing. Not only did we hear this daily in Los Angeles, but we also had to listen to it from other localities

I felt in my heart if any free agent would tweak their nose at the rest of the league and sign with the Clippers it would be Leonard. The challenge of playing for a franchise with no championships in a city that is owned by the team they share their building with simply folds most superstars who simply aren’t up for the challenge.

Hell, who can blame them. When Chris Paul was traded to the Clippers he was still a top ten player. He took his family to a Dodger game and they showed him on the monitor Instead of getting the cheers he’s heard all his life, he was booed. In front of his son. I don’t think he ever got over that. I’m sure his son will never forget. I never forgot I’ve thought less of Dodger fans ever since.

Times change though. Donald Sterling is no longer the owner, Steve Ballmer the richest sports owner in the World is. The right-hand man for Ballmer is Jerry West, the Logo, the man who built the Laker juggernaut of Shaq/Kobe.  The front office is so loaded that not one but two different assistant General Managers were recruited to run other organizations, and yet they turned down those offers to continue working within the Clipper front office. No one does that.

Winning? Well, the Clippers were the only Los Angeles team to make the postseason this past season. While the Lakers were salivating about another lottery pick the Clippers were the only NBA franchise to beat the Warriors in the postseason when the Warriors had their big four healthy.

 

The Clippers don’t have any championships, YET. But they do win, oh yes they do.

Year Clipper Wins Clipper Postseason Laker Wins Laker Postseason
2018-19 48 Lost 1st Round 37 No Playoffs
2017-18 42 No Playoffs 35 No Playoffs
2016-17 51 Lost 1st Round 26 No Playoffs
2015-16 53 Lost 1st Round 17 No Playoffs
2014-15 56 Lost Conf Semis 21 No Playoffs
2013-14 57 Lost Conf Semis 27 No Playoffs
2012-13 56 Lost 1st Round 45 Lost 1st Round
2011-2012 40 Lost Conf Semis 41 Lost Semis
403 249

It may have taken Kawhi Leonard to get this city to notice the Clippers, but the Clippers have been the only winning NBA franchise in Los Angeles since 2013. They have won 154 more games than the Lakers since Chris Paul was sent to the Franchise by the NBA commissioner in 2011.

Chris Paul didn’t choose the Clippers, the NBA commissioner did. Blake Griffin didn’t choose the Clippers the draft did.

Kawhi Leonard chose the Clippers.  Kawhi not only chose the Clippers over the super team across the hall he decided to build his own super team and recruited Paul George to join him. There will be no Chris Paul stigma as this duo tries to do what Lob City could not do, bring a banner to Staples Center and win over the NBA fans of Los Angeles.

In the past, I thought you could be both a Clipper and Laker fan but not anymore. Kawhi spurned the Lakers and has created a divide that will only be decided when these two superpower franchises match up.

Hopefully in a Western Conference Final.

 

 

Dodger rookies owning it

♦ June 24, 2019 ♦ Leave a comment

Much of the talk about the Dodger rookies will be about the back to back to back rookie walk-off home runs this weekend but the Dodger rookies have been banging all year.

Player         WAR/pos Year Age  PA 2B HR RBI BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS
Alex Verdugo       2.5 2019  23 250 17  7  32 18 26 .302 .352 .489  .841
Will Smith         0.5 2019  24  24  1  3   6  2  6 .318 .375 .773 1.148
Kyle Garlick       0.4 2019  27  24  2  2   4  2  9 .318 .375 .682 1.057
Matt Beaty         0.2 2019  26  71  4  2  13  2 11 .333 .352 .478  .830
Rocky Gale        -0.2 2019  31  15  0  0   0  0  7 .133 .133 .133  .267

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/24/2019.
I didn’t realize that Rocky Gale was still considered a rookie given that it seems he’s been around a long time. He’s not banging, but everyone else is.  Alex Verdugo is now firmly in the ROY race. Alonso has a full one point fWAR lead on him but he also did that with 70 more plate appearances, and one guy is a 1st baseman, the other is a centerfielder so that gap may continue to close as the season progresses if Verdugo can continue to hit at this level while playing a plus center field.

Wild Walk Off Weekend

♦ June 24, 2019 ♦ Leave a comment

There is a lot to unload from this weekend series with the Rockies.

Three walk-off home runs by three different rookies

Walker Buehler pitching the greatest game of his career

WIll Smith ridiculous return

Alex Verdugo putting his stamp on this team

Matt Beatty ridiculous return

 

Matt Beaty belongs here

♦ June 24, 2019 ♦ 1 Comment

Every Dodger position rookie is making their mark this year and Matt Beaty is no exception. I haven’t looked at the statcast data, but it seems every time he makes contact it is hard contact. Matt was doing everything right, and yet because of the Rich Hill injury, he was sent down last Wednesday.  He didn’t take his flight to Oklahoma and it seemed awful convenient that Josh Sborz suffered an injury that would put him on the injured list so that Matt could rejoin the team in time for the series with the Rockies.

Good thing that the Dodgers never planned on sending Matt to Oklahoma because he was a big part of the Dodger walk-off sweep of the Rockies this past weekend. Matt had been making most of his starts at 1st base but with the Dodgers thinking long term they moved Matt to LF and gave Joc Pederson his first major league start at 1st base. Matt is not an outfielder and Joc is not a 1st baseman but if/when AJ Pollock comes back if Joc is going to play that means he may need to learn how to play 1st base because Cody and Alex are going to be in RF/CF every night for a while. Matt made his mark by hitting the walk-off home run and is now part of major league history by being part of the Dodger Rookie trio who hit back to back to back rookie walk-off home runs this weekend.

That might be the highlight of his career. Or it might just be the start of his career. Max Muncy and others have broken what we expect of AAAA level players. It is very possible that Matt Beaty has the hit tool to have an impactful major league career. I won’t pretend to know what is in store, but what he has done for the Dodgers in June has already had an impact on the team. His ability to play 1st, allowed Max Muncy to move to 2nd, and Max shocked me (maybe everyone) with how well he has handled second base. The Dodgers looked down the road and decided that Joc needed to play 1st base, which tells me all I need to know about who they expect to be on the roster when AJ Pollock comes off the injured list. Unless something happens at the traded deadline it won’t be Matt Beaty but if the Dodgers earn a ring, Matt Beaty will have earned the right to wear that ring.

 

Alex Verdugo lights up Chavez Ravine

♦ June 24, 2019 ♦ 1 Comment

With the injury to AJ Pollock, Alex Verdugo has planted himself in centerfield and in the hearts of Dodger fans. I don’t want to talk for all Dodger fans but for this fan, his spirit and play has supplanted the fun that Yasiel Puig used to deliver. This comes as a shock to me for several reasons.

I’ll be the first to admit that I wasn’t a big fan of Alex Verdugo when I first saw him play for the Dodgers. He had the excellent minor league pedigree but there was something that just didn’t sit right with me. Most of it probably had to do with the massive gold chain that seemed out of place but that was just a reactionary response from someone who has never understood the place that jewelry has in our society.  Once I got over that I still had the feeling that he simply wasn’t going to be good enough to be an everyday outfielder for a team hunting for a World Championship.

Instead, Verdugo just might be the player you need to win a World Championship.  He can hit for average, for power, has decent speed, good arm, makes contact, and plays the game hard. Verdugo may not be great at anything but he’s good at everything you want a player to be good at. The scouting reports said he wasn’t a center-fielder – that seems to be wrong. He’s played a solid centerfield. Not great, but certainly adequate.  The scouting reports said he wouldn’t have the power needed in today’s game – the dude hit the longest home run of any Dodger and this team has Cody Bellinger on it

I’m not a big antic fan, and Verdugo has plenty of antics, and the fans are eating it up. I always thought if the fans are having fun who am I to get in the way. If they want to hit beach balls, let em hit beach balls. If they want to do the wave, let them do the wave. If they like their players doing bat flips, dancing in the dugout, doing shimmy things, crazy wild home run greetings. Whatever, we are all at the game to have fun. Your fun is not my fun but why should I get in the way of your fun?

Verdugo is fun. and he’s good. and he might have been exactly what the Dodgers needed.

The ridiculousness of Will Smith

♦ June 24, 2019 ♦ 1 Comment

Will Smith entered the 2019 season stuck between the present in Austin Barnes and the future in Keibert Ruiz. The Dodgers had signed Russell Martin to back up Austin Barnes which left Will Smith in AAA.  The good news for Will Smith is that the Dodgers didn’t trade for Realmuto or trade for any other catcher that would block Smith for the future position of Dodger catcher. The bad news for Smith was that Keibert Ruiz was right behind him, and many considered him the Dodger heir apparent at catcher, not Will Smith. At best it was thought that Smith might be able to grab a year before Ruiz showed up.

Given what Will Smith is doing, he might not only be the Dodger catcher of the future, he might be the Dodger catcher of the present. It wouldn’t take much of a case to show that Will Smith might be the Dodgers best option for catcher right now. Part of that is because of how awesome Will Smith has been, part of that is because Austin Barnes continues to look like 2018 Austin Barnes and not the hoped-for 2017 version.

How awesome has Will Smith been? He has a 1.006 OPS in AAA with fourteen home runs in only 147 plate appearances.  He has hit another three home runs as a Dodger in only nineteen plate appearances which have fueled his 1.148 major league OPS.  Home runs aren’t his only game, he has also walked thirty-three times in about 200 combined major / minor league plate appearances.  Among his three major league home runs are already two walk-off home runs with the latest coming yesterday.  Most major league players will go a complete career without a walk-off home run. He has two in his first twenty-two major league at-bats. If you want to forget the hitting because the most important job for a catcher is to run the pitching staff, he’s considered a top defensive catcher with good framing skills.  In short, Will Smith is probably a good guy to entrust as your starting catcher.

@clylealt has been telling me for several years that Will Smith is so good that he will be the Dodgers future catcher. She just might be right. 

@DustinNosler opined several weeks ago that the Dodgers should carry Will Smith on the roster because of the flexibility of all three Dodger catchers. I didn’t see how they could configure the roster to make this happen, but they should probably do exactly that.  

 

Walker Buehler is on the board

♦ June 24, 2019 ♦ 1 Comment

At the beginning of the year, I thought Walker Buehler would be in the Cy Young conversation but as April turned to May that thought was long gone from my memory. On June 21st, Walker reminded me why I had such lofty thought for him when he pitched a complete game with sixteen strikeouts.

I thought the Walker Buehler game on Friday night was going to be the best game score of 2019 but I must not have paid enough attention to the game that German Marquez threw on April 14th when he threw a one-hit shutout. Still, the game on Friday night by Buehler was the best game by a Dodger this year and it did include the most strikeouts in one game by any pitcher this year.

Player                    Date  Rslt  IP H ER BB SO GSc
German Marquez      2019-04-14 W 4-0 9.0 1  0  0  9  94
Sandy Alcantara     2019-05-19 W 3-0 9.0 2  0  1  8  90
Walker Buehler      2019-06-21 W 4-2 9.0 3  2  0 16  89
Freddy Peralta      2019-04-03 W 1-0 8.0 2  0  0 11  89
Noah Syndergaard    2019-05-02 W 1-0 9.0 4  0  1 10  88
Hyun-Jin Ryu        2019-05-12 W 6-0 8.0 1  0  1  9  88

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/24/2019.

Player                 Date  Rslt  IP H ER BB SO GSc
Walker Buehler   2019-06-21 W 4-2 9.0 3  2  0 16  89
Max Scherzer     2019-06-02 W 4-1 8.0 3  1  1 15  86
Jacob deGrom     2019-04-03 W 6-4 7.0 3  0  1 14  84

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/24/2019.

This game has to be one of the most dominant games by a right-handed LAD pitcher using strikeout as the cherry-picked criteria? Let’s find out.

Yeah it was:

Player                 Date  Tm  Rslt  IP H ER BB SO GSc
Ramon Martinez   1990-06-04 LAD W 6-0 9.0 3  0  1 18  98
Hideo Nomo       1996-04-13 LAD W 3-1 9.0 3  1  3 17  91
Walker Buehler   2019-06-21 LAD W 4-2 9.0 3  2  0 16  89
Hideo Nomo       1995-06-14 LAD W 8-5 8.0 6  2  2 16  74

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/24/2019.

Only four right-handed LAD pitchers have struck out at least 16 hitters and Walker Buehler is now one of them. Granted strike-outs in 2019 are as prevalent as lies by POTUS compared to the historical past but still, you have to count them.

This was also the best game score by Walker in his brief career, with two his best game scores coming in the month of June.

Date          Tm Opp  Rslt  IP H ER BB SO GSc
2019-06-21   LAD COL W 4-2 9.0 3  2  0 16  89
2019-06-03   LAD ARI W 3-1 8.0 2  1  0 11  85
2018-09-14   LAD STL W 3-0 8.0 2  0  2  9  85

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/24/2019.

With his dominant June, Walker is once again making a case for the 2019 CYA. Max Scherzer has a sizable WAR lead but Max is 6 -5 and Walker is 8 – 1 and while wins don’t have the caveat they once had, they might still have enough to sway just enough voters. The chart below was created via export download from www.fangraphs.com. 

Name K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP xFIP WAR
Max Scherzer 12.36 1.86 2.62 2.2 3.01 4.2
Hyun-Jin Ryu 8.18 0.55 1.27 2.5 2.91 3.3
Jacob deGrom 11.23 1.86 3.25 3.04 3.17 2.8
Walker Buehler 9.85 1.28 2.96 2.88 3.25 2.6
German Marquez 9.05 1.96 4.32 3.61 3.43 2.6
Brandon Woodruff 10.88 2.39 4.01 3.07 3.35 2.5
Stephen Strasburg 10.59 2.38 3.79 3.4 3.2 2.4
Cole Hamels 8.76 3.1 2.92 3.55 3.99 2.3
Zack Greinke 7.68 1.24 2.91 3.45 3.72 2.2
Kyle Hendricks 7.64 1.63 3.36 3.49 4.16 2.2
Noah Syndergaard 8.81 2.27 4.55 3.61 4 2.1
Zack Wheeler 9.56 2.57 4.69 3.73 3.89 2.1
Mike Soroka 7.24 2.18 2.07 3.07 3.66 2
Tanner Roark 9.07 3.02 3.47 3.41 4.39 2