Pitching / Pitching / Pitching

Phil Gurnee ♦ January 25, 2024 ♦ Leave a comment

The Dodger rotation at the end of the 2023 season was basically Kershaw / Miller / Lynn and possibly Pepiot if they needed that fourth starter. Which was one broken pitcher, a rookie, a home run prone fill in, and another rookie. Now, that wasn’t how they started 2023, the expectation for the 2023 rotation was Urias / Kershaw / May / Gonsolin / Thor. Only Kershaw was still standing in October but it was not the Kershaw who pitched great during the summer but a broken Kershaw who immediately had surgery on his shoulder after the season ended. Urias was in his walk year but was never they guy who was one of the best pitchers from 2021 – 2023. Instead he was average, and eventually his time with the Dodgers came to a thudding end with the news of his domestic abuse charges. Both May and Gonsolin succumbed to arm injuries, while Thor was about as bad as any Dodger rotation pitcher has ever been.

Yet, the 2023 team survived all of that rotation turmoil to win 100 games again. With the signing of James Paxton (Big Maple) the 2024 rotation looks to be in its final shape with only one big name still missing. Clayton Kershaw has yet to sign a deal for 2024, but I and most people expect Kershaw to sign with the Dodgers once they can put players on the 60 man IL so that they Dodgers don’t have give up a spot on the 40 man roster. That would look like this, May and Gonsolin go on the 60 Man IL, thus freeing up two spots on the 40 man roster. The Dodgers sign Kershaw and immediately he goes on the 60 Man IL, thus still leaving two 40 man roster spots available.

Thus, the Dodgers 2024 is looking like this as we get ready for the kick off of the 2024 season.

Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Bobby Miller, James Paxton, and Emmet Sheehan. Walker Buehler is expected to be ready for the rotation in May. You can see spots starts being doled out to Gavin Stone or Landon Knack if anyone comes out of spring training ailing. Dustin May is expected back around Aug 1st, and we don’t really know when Kershaw might be ready if at all in 2024. Gonsolin and Ohtani are expected to miss the whole season.

If and when Glasnow / Yamamoto / Buehler are all in the rotation together, you will be hard pressed to find a more talented threesome in any rotation. If they can make it to October, the sky is the limit for the Dodgers 2024 season.

But, it gets better. 2024 is just the prelude to what could be an amazing rotation in 2025 even if Walker Buehler walks. Both Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan will be ready for big roles in 2025, and who isn’t excited about seeing Shohei Ohtani make his rotational debut? You bring back the big arms of Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto you already have a formidable rotation. Yet, it could be even better if the reports are true that Japanese super star Rōki Sasaki wants to join Yamamoto and Ohtani in Los Angeles. Plus, you still have Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin in your hip pocket as they come back from their surgeries, and of course you still have the bevy of kids who will all be knocking hard at the door by the spring of 2025. Look at the possible choices for the 2025 rotation if they let Walker go but sign Sasaki.

Shohei Ohtani, Rōki Sasaki, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan

Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Gavin Stone, Nick Frasso, Kyle Hurt, River Ryan, and Landon Knack

Along with the wild card that is Clayton Kershaw if he signs up for 2025

Or they don’t sign Sasaki but do extend Walker Buehler

Shohei Ohtani, Walker Buehler, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan

Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Gavin Stone, Nick Frasso, Kyle Hurt, River Ryan, and Landon Knack

Along with the wild card that is Clayton Kershaw if he signs up for 2025

Or they don’t extend Buehler or sign Sasaki. Not as sexy but still plenty of potential, and more realistic room for Kershaw if wants to pitch for the Dodgers in 2025.

Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Clayton Kershaw

Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Gavin Stone, Nick Frasso, Kyle Hurt, River Ryan, and Landon Knack

I’m a huge fan of Emmet Sheehan, and expect him to be a force for the Dodger rotation as he battles Bobby Miller for the title of best young Dodger pitcher. If health permits, those two should hold down two rotation spots, leaving little room for any of the other prospects outside of some spot starts when needed.

Thus, I fully expect that Stone/Knack to be traded sometime between 2/2024 and 8/2025 while hoping that Ryan and Hurt become part of a very formidable Dodger bullpen. Hurt as soon as 2024, and Ryan in 2025. Frasso is still a depth piece but as we head into 2026 more pieces should be coming into play.

In 2026, Jackson Ferris the key piece of the Michael Busch trade should be ready to tip his toes into the show. Justin Wrobleski and Maddux Bruns should also be where Frasso/Knack/Hurt are right now. It is possible that all three of the talented lefties flame out, but I’d expect at least two of those three to start knocking on the door. Ferris is the most talented, and Bruns the least likely but I do like Wrobleski a lot. Ronan Kopp is another big arm pitcher, but most see him as a bullpen piece so for now, I’ll just expect him to join Hurt/Ryan in the bullpen by 2026, if not sooner.

The Dodgers pipeline isn’t done yet. By 2027 Payton Martin and Hyun-Seok Jang could be the next big things in Dodger blue. 

Other pitchers of note in the pipeline are tean-agers Jesus Tillero, Brady Smith and some other system arms such as Peter Huebeck, Hyun-il Choi, Jermino Rosario, Ben Casparius, Jared Karros, and just returning from TJ surgery Edgardo Henriquez.

Outside of 4th round pick Brady Smith we have yet to get a look at what they drafted in 2023, and in the last few years, they always have a nice surprise from their domestic drafts. Justin Chambers was acquired for Bryan Hudson winter when the Dodgers needed to clear a space on the 40 man roster. The last two times the Dodgers made a deal like that they traded Mitch White for Nick Frasso and Matt Beatty for River Ryan. Both of those pitchers were much older than Chambers, but they are now both top ten Dodger pitching prospects, so I wouldn’t discount what they might have picked up in Justin Chambers.

Anyway you cut it, unless the Dodgers incur multiple catastrophic injuries, the pitching should be in good hands for the next few years.