Trade Talk Time

Phil Gurnee ♦ November 30, 2016 ♦ 2 Comments

With the winter meetings around the corner a few pieces are falling into place for other baseball teams but the Dodgers have yet to make any moves beyond Rule 5 decisions, and minor league transactions.

One of the vexing problems for the Dodgers this off-season will be how to add some right-hand pop to the left-handed heavy lineup. Especially if Justin Turner takes his talents elsewhere.  Turner had a great year, but he did his best work against RHP, and the Dodgers need someone who can wreck some havoc upon the southpaw side of the equation.

With that in mind, my first trade proposal involves our friendly rivals from Missouri. We have a solid young left-handed center fielder who is completely inept against LHP and I don’t think that is going to change as he ages which leave him as a platoon CF. On the plus side, Joc does excellent damage against RHP which of course is the predominant arm.

If you want to get a strong RHB who can play CF, and matches up age wise with Joc you are probably looking at Randall Grichuk. The former 1st round pick of the Angels had a massive 2015 but regressed in 2016.

The Highlights:

• 25 years old, won’t be an FA until 2021
• Plays CF
• Doesn’t have severe splits, hits RHP and LHP equally well
• ISO of .272 and .240 in 2015 and 2016 respectively
• Not a negative defensive CF
• Excellent numbers with RISP

The Lowlights:

• High K rate, almost 30%
• Low walk rate, 5.8%
• Was demoted to minors in 2016 after struggling to start the year but finished strong
• Was horrible in high leverage situations

How does that compare to Joc?

The Highlights:

• 24 years old, won’t be an FA until 2021
• Plays a solid centerfield
• Damages RHP to the tune of a career OPS of .840
• ISO of .206 and .249 in 2015 and 2016 respectively. Trending up
• Career walk rate of almost 15%
• Crushes at home

The Lowlights:

• High K rate, 28%
• Can’t hit LHP at all, trending down, career OPS of .599, in 2016 it was .469
• Horrible in high leverage situations

Grichuk has earned 5.3 fWAR over the last two years with 3.1 in 2015 and 2.2 in 2016 . Joc has earned 6.5 fWAR over the last two years with 2.9 in 2015 and 3.6 in 2016. Joc did this in 1061 PA, while Grichuk did it in 828 plate appearances.  Joc has the big advantage in on-base skills, and almost one year in age though that age does not translate to having more team controlled years. The biggest advantage for Grichuk is that he can be played against both left and right-hand pitching, and will help the Dodgers with their southpaw problem.

Anyway, I’m going to keep going because the player I want to acquire if the Dodgers don’t sign Justin Turner is Jedd Gyorko.

Why:

• His name is pronounced Jerko, that alone is worth 1.0 WAR for me
• He hit 30 home runs last year in only 438 plate appearances giving him an ISO of .253
• He can be either your 2017 2nd baseman or 2017 3rd baseman depending on need
• He signed a long-term deal several years ago that will take him to 2019 with a club option of only One Million in 2020. The Padres are paying a part of it each year so the going rate is quite reasonable at 4M, 7.5M, and 10M over the next three years.
• He can take a walk with an 8.5% walk rate in 2016, while also sporting a decent 21% K rate.
• The Cardinals have so many infielders they are thinking of moving Matt Carpenter to 1st base, supplanting Matt Adams. That still leaves Johnny Peralta to man 3rd base, with stud rookie Diaz at SS, and Wong at 2nd.

Sooooooooooooooooooo

With all that in mind, this would be my trade proposal:

Grichuk and Gyorko

for

Joc Pederson and Enrique Hernandez and somebody to make it enticing for the Cardinals.

 

The Cardinals have two right hand hitting center fielders in Grichuk and Pham and this gives them more flexibility having Joc/Pham. They save some money for a player who might only be a utility player for them in 2017 if Wong/Diaz/Peralta stay healthy while getting a player like Hernandez who can play anywhere and might bounce back from his dreadful 2016.

Of course, if I’m the Cardinals, I’m using Gyroko as my starting 3rd baseman not Peralta and I don’t make this trade unless the Dodgers significantly add to it.

But it was a fun exercise.