Arizona Diamondback Preview 06/13/2016

Phil Gurnee ♦ June 13, 2016 ♦ Leave a comment

The Diamondbacks went all in this winter much as the Padres did last year, and the results have been pretty much the same.  Padres were out of the race by the all-star game in 2015, and unless things change dramatically for the Diamondbacks that will be the same story in 2016 for them.

Much of the blame for the Diamondback collapse has been placed on the shoulders of Shelby Miller. Arizona traded a boatload for a barely above average pitcher but instead of at least getting that, they got the second worst pitcher of 2016.

And yet, for some bizarre reason, I feel Shelby Miller is going to bounce back from his recent DL spell and pitch some of the best baseball of his career going forward.

Here in a nutshell is why the Diamondbacks are 28 – 37 instead of 38 – 28.

• They lost AJ Pollock before he ever got to play in 2016 when he decided to slid into home plate head first.  It was not the first time he had made that mistake, and once again it cost him and teammates dearly.
• His outfield roommate David Peralta missed twenty-five games. Upon his June 6th return he’s hit like he’s still on the DL.
• Rubby De La Rosa who had shown growth,  hurt his elbow and is out until August
• Grienke/Miller/Corbin were expected to give Arizona a solid big three but none of them have come close to expectations. Grienke was supposed to be the big ace but overall he’s simply been good. Miller as noted, has been the second worst pitcher in baseball (Alfredo Simon is number one)  who has been allowed to make at least ten starts. Corbin is barely pitching like a fifth starter instead of someone who is part of a big three.
• Even Goldy can take some blame. The only offensive categories he’s leading the league in are walks, games, plate appearances. The slug% is starting to trend back up, but still sits well below his career slug% of .531 at .488.  For context, last year at this time, Goldy’s slug% was an astronomical .662.  For Arizona to be a contender they really need that Goldy to make up for the loss of Pollock.

This is what the Dodgers will be seeing over the next three games:

1st – Paul Goldschmidt – nine of his eleven home runs have come at home this year.  We all know he loves to hit home runs against the Dodgers.  Expect Goldy to hit at least two home runs this series.  Not having his best season to date, but still the best 1st baseman in the NL.

2nd – Jean Segura was crushing it in April with an .885 OPS, fell back to .708 in May, and has now dropped off the face of the diamond with a June OPS of  .578. Segura has yet to garner an XBH yet in June of 2016. He’s not just cold, he’s frigid.

SS – Nick Ahmed – at least Segura can boost of having been hot once. Ahmed may be one of the best defensive shortstops around, but he also can’t hit a lick.  Gazing upon his .597 OPS, I wondered how he ranks among futility hitters of the 21st century. . Here is what I found.  Not as bad as I thought he’d be. He’s bad (about 22nd worst),  but he’s not close to being the worst hitter of the 21st century. That must be a relief for him.

3rd – Jake Lamb is quietly having an excellent season.  Lamb has an OPS+ of 125. For context the great Nolan Arenado is at 134 and our Justin Turner is at 83. His eleven home runs ranks 4th among NL 3rd baseman.

C – Wellington Castillo had that bizarre year in 2015. In 2016 that honor goes to Chris Herrmann.  Herrmann has a current OPS of .916. His career OPS is .614, with most of that being done while a backup for the Twins. Come on, where did this come from?   The Diamondback catchers have the following OPS+ numbers, 104 and 138. Contrasting nicely with the excellent bat work being done by the Dodger catchers who tally in at 83 and 57.

RF – belongs once again to David Peralta.  Peralta was the Arizona clean up hitter until he got hurt. He missed over 20 games, but is now back in the lineup . Cept he stopped hitting and is doing little clean up these days. He’s only been back for six days and I’m sure he’ll got that sweet left-handed bat going but since he’s been back he has four hits and zero walks in eighteen plate appearances. Rusty he be.

CF – infielder Chris Owings gave it a shot but he’s now on the DL, so Atlanta Brave reject Michael Bourn is getting the gig.  I’ll say this about Bourn. He couldn’t make the roster of the worst team in baseball.  And now he’s starting in CF for the Diamondbacks. BUT, because baseball is baseball, it would not surprise me if Bourn outhits Ender Inciarte this season. He’s doing it right now, that is how bad Inciarte has been for the Braves.

RF – Yasmani Tomas – Much like the Dodgers Yazmani Grandal, neither have earned the right to use the nickname of Yaz.  Tomas was supposed to have some power, but has rarely showed it.  Good bet that he’ll end up losing this gig to Peter O’Brien in the not to distant future.  Tomas can hit a little, but not enough to justify giving him full-time at bats.

All Around Bench Guy – Brandon Drury  has played RF,LF, 2b, and 3b so far this year. He’s hit when he’s played. A valuable bench player.

Prospect to Watch – Peter O’Brien – man without a position. Has power but no place to play. His natural position was catcher but he’s not a catcher. 1st base is taken. He might be able to handle the outfield, but he’s probably a DH. But so is Tomas so what do you do?